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Board of Directors Meeting | Mar 30, 2017

High School Capacity Analysisand Annual K-12 Enrollment Projections Special Board Meeting – March 30, 2017


Special Board Meeting

High School Capacity Analysisand Annual K-12 Enrollment Projections6:00 – 7:30 p.m.Thursday, March 30, 2017Jackson High School Annex

Greetings and introductions• Ted Wenta, President of school board• Dr. Gary Cohn, Superintendent• Mike Gunn, Executive Dir. of Facilities & Operations• Larry Fleckenstein, South Region Assistant

Superintendent


High School Capacity Analysis

Objectives• The board and community will develop a strong

understanding of projected enrollment growth, learn about some options and implications we have for responding to this growth, and have the opportunity to discuss their concerns, thoughts and ideas



What we are going to do tonight!• Review updated enrollment projections through 2026,

focusing on high school enrollments, capacities, and portable classrooms

• Explore possible high school options and the implications of these options

• Community one-on-one conversations with individual board members

• Board members report-out on what they heard


Enrollment from 1951-2016

See how we’ve grown!

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

19, 732


EPS Enrollment Growth Comparison


District-Wide Enrollment Projections

Enrollment projections are from 3 sources• Enrollment Consultant (low, medium, high)• OSPI• OFM ratio method

Projections based upon numerous factors• Student roll up to next grade level• Birth rates• Historical trends• New housing market and other economic indicators• Population forecasts• Enrollments are expressed in headcounts

The district also produces an internal enrollment projection for staffing and budgeting processes


District-Wide Enrollment Projections

Enrollment projection accuracy

184 239

362340

397

501

114

187

312 317 313

119

172

261

435

485

561

643

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year

Aver

age

Diffe

renc

e fr

om A

ctua

l Enr

ollm

ent

(Abs

olut

e Va

lue)

Based on Enrollment Projections generated in 1997, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015District’s Consultants: Fjeran 1998 -2007 & Kendrick 2008-2013

Average Variation in Enrollment Projections from Actual EnrollmentEverett Public Schools

Fjeran

Kendrick

OSPI


Enrollment Outlook – Elementary School

10,300

10,677

9,942

10,314

9,599

9,964

9,680

9,688

9,300

9,500

9,700

9,900

10,100

10,300

10,500

10,700

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Enro

llmen

t

Year

EPS Elementary School Projections(Headcount)

K - High

K - Medium

K - Low

OSPI

K = KendrickOSPI = Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction

Projections based on Enrollment Forecast by W. Les Kendrick, Ph.D., Educational Data Solutions, January 2017


Enrollment Outlook – Middle School



5,013

5,226

4,698

4,826

4,402

4,456

4,476

4,809

4,200

4,400

4,600

4,800

5,000

5,200

5,400

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Enro

llmen

t

Year

EPS Middle School Enrollment Projections(Headcount)

K - High

K - Medium

K - Low

OSPI


Enrollment Outlook – High School



6,751

6,955

6,324 6,266

5,927 5,639

5,575

6,172

5,300

5,500

5,700

5,900

6,100

6,300

6,500

6,700

6,900

7,100

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Enro

llmen

t

Year

EPS High School Enrollment Projections(Headcount)

K - High

K - Medium

K - Low

OSPI


Enrollment Outlook – District



21,984

22,858

20,891

21,406

19,859

20,059

19,731

20,669

1930019500197001990020100203002050020700209002110021300215002170021900221002230022500227002290023100

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Enro

llmen

t

Year

EPS Total K-12 Enrollment Projections(Headcount)

K - High

K - Medium

K - Low

OSPI


Enrollment Outlook – District

10,314

9,6009,7009,8009,900

10,00010,10010,20010,30010,400

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Enro

llmen

tEPS Elementary School Projections

4,826

4,4004,6004,8005,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026Enr

ollm

ent

EPS Middle School Enrollment Projections

6,266

5,5005,7005,9006,1006,3006,500

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Enro

llmen

t

EPS High School Enrollment Projections

+ 514 students


Enrollment Outlook – Short Term (1 year)

Kendrick projects increase of 281 students from October 2016 to October 2017

District staff also project a 281 student increase for staffing and budgeting process

Projections are as of October 1 of each year

October tends to have the highest enrollment, but some schools in our district actually grow throughout the year

October 1 Headcount

2013 2014 2015 2016Projected

2017Difference from 2016

Elementary 9,095 9,426 9,538 9,680 9,755 75 Middle 4,207 4,222 4,323 4,476 4,635 159 High 5,517 5,573 5,635 5,575 5,622 47 Total 18,819 19,221 19,496 19,731 20,012 281

CHARTS

slideShort Term

4October 1 Headcount2013201420152016Projected 2017Difference from 2016

Elementary9,0959,4269,5389,6809,75575

Middle 4,2074,2224,3234,4764,635159

High5,5175,5735,6355,5755,62247

Total 18,81919,22119,49619,73120,012281

Long term

6October 1 Headcount2016Projected 2017Projected 2020Projected 2023Projected 2026Difference from 2016

Elementary9,6809,7559,67710,02410,314634

Middle 4,4764,6354,9174,6694,826350

High5,5755,6225,9576,4186,266691

Total 19,73120,01220,55121,11121,4061,675

7ES OutlookLOWMEDHIGHOSPI20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

20169,6809,6809,6809,6800H9,6809,9029,9969,9509,99310,17210,30010,37510,48210,60710,677

20179,6099,7559,9029,593162M9,6809,7559,7749,6739,6779,8249,94210,02410,12810,24710,314

20189,5579,7749,9969,623151L9,6809,6099,5579,4049,3719,4929,5999,6869,7879,9019,964

20199,4049,6739,9509,60667OSPI9,6809,5939,6239,6069,5399,5639,688

20209,3719,6779,9939,539138

20219,4929,82410,1729,563261

20229,5999,94210,3009,688254

20239,68610,02410,375

20249,78710,12810,482

20259,90110,24710,607

20269,96410,31410,677

8MS OutlookLOWMEDHIGHOSPI20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

20164,4764,4764,4764,4760H4,4764,7044,8015,0445,1445,0835,0135,0325,1645,2025,226

20174,5664,6354,7044,454181M4,4764,6354,6834,8704,9174,8114,6984,6694,7664,7944,826

20184,5674,6834,8014,64835L4,4764,5664,5674,7034,7014,5554,4024,3314,3994,4174,456

20194,7034,8705,0444,709161OSPI4,4764,4544,6484,7094,8884,9224,809

20204,7014,9175,1444,88829

20214,5554,8115,0834,922-111

20224,4024,6985,0134,809-111

20234,3314,6695,032

20244,3994,7665,164

20254,4174,7945,202

20264,4564,8265,226

9HS OutlookLOWMEDHIGHOSPI20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

20165,5755,5755,5755,5750H5,5755,7055,8945,9406,2286,4686,6716,9196,9006,9426,955

20175,5375,6225,7055,57349M5,5755,6225,7505,7395,9576,1246,2516,4186,3396,3166,266

20185,6075,7505,8945,544206L5,5755,5375,6075,5395,6935,7945,8585,9575,8235,7435,639

20195,5395,7395,9405,69247OSPI5,5755,5735,5445,6925,7385,9226,172

20205,6935,9576,2285,738219

20215,7946,1246,4685,922202

20225,8586,2516,6716,17279

20235,9576,4186,919

20245,8236,3396,900

20255,7436,3166,942

20265,6396,2666,955

10District OutlookLOWMEDHIGHOSPI20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

201619,73119,73119,73119,7310K - High19,73120,31120,69120,93421,36521,72321,98422,32622,54622,75122,858

201719,71220,01220,31119,620392K - Medium19,73120,01220,20720,28220,55120,75920,89121,11121,23321,35721,406

201819,73120,20720,69119,815392K - Low19,73119,71219,73119,64619,76519,84119,85919,97420,00920,06120,059

201919,64620,28220,93420,007275OSPI19,73119,62019,81520,00720,16520,40720,669

202019,76520,55121,36520,1653860392392275386352222

202119,84120,75921,72320,407352

202219,85920,89121,98420,669222

202319,97421,11122,326

202420,00921,23322,546

202520,06121,35722,751

202620,05921,40622,858

Enrollment(Over) or UnderPortables

Headcount20162026Change2016202620162026Change

Elementary9,68010,314634-1,151-1,225708818

Middle 4,4764,82635090-26021265

High5,5756,266691212-479153823

Total 19,73121,4061,675-849-1,96410615246

Capacity20162026

ES8,5299,089560-1,151-1,225708818

MS4,5664,56690-26021265

HS5,7875,787212-479153823

18,88219,442-849-1,96410615246

560

ES 18-1,225

-260

-479

-1,964

EPS Total K-12 Enrollment Projections

(Headcount)

Year2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620162017201820192020202120222023202420252026 K - High201620172018201920202021202220232024202520261973120311206912093421365217232198422326225462275122858 K - Medium201620172018201920202021202220232024202520261973120012202072028220551207592089121111212332135721406 K - Low201620172018201920202021202220232024202520261973119712197311964619765198411985919974200092006120059 OSPI

19,496

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202619731196201981520007201652040720669

Year

Enrollment

EPS Elementary School Projections

(Headcount)

K - High2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202696809902999699509993101721030010375104821060710677 K - Medium20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026968097559774967396779824994210024101281024710314 K - Low2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202696809609955794049371949295999686978799019964 OSPI201620172018201920202021202220232024202520269680959396239606953995639688

Year

Enrollment


(Headcount)


Year

Enrollment


(Headcount)

K - High

6,751

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202655755705589459406228646866716919690069426955 K - Medium

6,324

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202655755622575057395957612462516418633963166266 K - Low

5,927

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202655755537560755395693579458585957582357435639 OSPI

5,635

201620172018201920202021202220232024202520265575557355445692573859226172

Year

Enrollment

OSPI 1049 MODIFIED (HC)

OSPI

SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION ASSISTANCE PROGRAM

REPORT 1049

SCHOOL YEAR 2015-2016

Everett SD

-- ACTUAL ENROLLMENTS ON OCTOBER 1 --AVERAGE %-- PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS --

Grade201020112012201320142015SURVIVAL201620172018201920202021

Kindergarten1,4661,4661,4921,5921,5451,4641,5371,5461,5561,5651,5741,584

Grade 11,5901,4961,5471,5691,6781,622104.62%1,5321,6081,6171,6281,6371,647

Grade 21,4981,5401,4721,5171,6051,69399.29%1,6101,5211,5971,6061,6161,625

Grade 31,3991,4761,5501,4611,5301,636100.24%1,6971,6141,5251,6011,6101,620

Grade 41,4241,3901,4371,5281,4991,585100.29%1,6411,7021,6191,5291,6061,615

Grade 51,4241,4231,3411,4191,5461,51299.43%1,5761,6321,6921,6101,5201,597

K-5 Sub-Total8,8018,7918,8399,0869,4039,5129,5939,6239,6069,5399,5639,688

Grade 61,4971,4091,4291,3411,4001,57099.91%1,5111,5751,6311,6901,6091,519

Grade 71,4071,4701,4061,4541,3661,380100.02%1,5701,5111,5751,6311,6901,609

Grade 81,3761,4011,4371,4061,4491,37299.48%1,3731,5621,5031,5671,6231,681

7-8 Sub-Total4,2804,2804,2724,2014,2154,3224,4544,6484,7094,8884,9224,809

Grade 91,4291,3881,4401,4411,4381,481101.67%1,3951,3961,5881,5281,5931,650

Grade 101,3631,3981,3611,4221,4141,42298.32%1,4561,3721,3731,5611,5021,566

Grade 111,3591,3071,3061,2751,3461,31894.16%1,3391,3711,2921,2931,4701,414

Grade 121,4281,4491,3721,3571,3431,398104.93%1,3831,4051,4391,3561,3571,542

9-12 Sub Total5,5795,5425,4795,4955,5415,6195,5735,5445,6925,7385,9226,172

DISTRICT K-12 TOTAL18,66018,61318,59018,78219,15919,45319,62019,81520,00720,16520,40720,669

OSPI 1049

OSPI


REPORT 1049


Everett SD

--- ACTUAL ENROLLMENTS ON OCTOBER 1st ---AVERAGE %--- PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS ---

Grade201020112012201320142015SURVIVAL201620172018201920202021

Kindergarten1,4661,4661,4921,5921,5451,4641,5371,5461,5561,5651,5741,584

Grade 11,5901,4961,5471,5691,6781,622104.62%1,5321,6081,6171,6281,6371,647

Grade 21,4981,5401,4721,5171,6051,69399.29%1,6101,5211,5971,6061,6161,625

Grade 31,3991,4761,5501,4611,5301,636100.24%1,6971,6141,5251,6011,6101,620

Grade 41,4241,3901,4371,5281,4991,585100.29%1,6411,7021,6191,5291,6061,615

Grade 51,4241,4231,3411,4191,5461,51299.43%1,5761,6321,6921,6101,5201,597

Grade 61,4971,4091,4291,3411,4001,57099.91%1,5111,5751,6311,6901,6091,519

K-6 Sub-Total10,29810,20010,26810,42710,80311,08211,10411,19811,23711,22911,17211,207

Grade 71,4071,4701,4061,4541,3661,380100.02%1,5701,5111,5751,6311,6901,609

Grade 81,3761,4011,4371,4061,4491,37299.48%1,3731,5621,5031,5671,6231,681

7-8 Sub-Total2,7832,8712,8432,8602,8152,7522,9433,0733,0783,1983,3133,290

Grade 91,4291,3881,4401,4411,4381,481101.67%1,3951,3961,5881,5281,5931,650

Grade 101,3631,3981,3611,4221,4141,42298.32%1,4561,3721,3731,5611,5021,566

Grade 111,3591,3071,3061,2751,3461,31894.16%1,3391,3711,2921,2931,4701,414

Grade 121,4281,4491,3721,3571,3431,398104.93%1,3831,4051,4391,3561,3571,542

9-12 Sub Total5,5795,5425,4795,4955,5415,6195,5735,5445,6925,7385,9226,172

DISTRICT K-12 TOTAL18,66018,61318,59018,78219,15919,45319,62019,81520,00720,16520,40720,669


Enrollment Outlook – Long Term (10 year)

Kendrick projects long-term growth of 1,675 students from October 2016 to October 2026

Growth in all regions of the district, but the southern region is projected to grow the most

Projections are based on medium range enrollment forecast prepared by W. Les Kendrick, PH.D., Educational Data Solutions, January 2017

October 1 Headcount

2016Projected

2017Projected

2020Projected

2023Projected

2026Difference from 2016

Elementary 9,680 9,755 9,677 10,024 10,314 634Middle 4,476 4,635 4,917 4,669 4,826 350High 5,575 5,622 5,957 6,418 6,266 691

Total 19,731 20,012 20,551 21,111 21,406 1,675

CHARTS

slideShort Term


Elementary9,0959,4269,5389,6809,75575

Middle 4,2074,2224,3234,4764,635159

High5,5175,5735,6355,5755,62247

Total 18,81919,22119,49619,73120,012281

Long term


Elementary9,6809,7559,67710,02410,314634

Middle 4,4764,6354,9174,6694,826350

High5,5755,6225,9576,4186,266691

Total 19,73120,01220,55121,11121,4061,675


20169,6809,6809,6809,6800H9,6809,9029,9969,9509,99310,17210,30010,37510,48210,60710,677

20179,6099,7559,9029,593162M9,6809,7559,7749,6739,6779,8249,94210,02410,12810,24710,314

20189,5579,7749,9969,623151L9,6809,6099,5579,4049,3719,4929,5999,6869,7879,9019,964

20199,4049,6739,9509,60667OSPI9,6809,5939,6239,6069,5399,5639,688

20209,3719,6779,9939,539138

20219,4929,82410,1729,563261

20229,5999,94210,3009,688254

20239,68610,02410,375

20249,78710,12810,482

20259,90110,24710,607

20269,96410,31410,677


20164,4764,4764,4764,4760H4,4764,7044,8015,0445,1445,0835,0135,0325,1645,2025,226

20174,5664,6354,7044,454181M4,4764,6354,6834,8704,9174,8114,6984,6694,7664,7944,826

20184,5674,6834,8014,64835L4,4764,5664,5674,7034,7014,5554,4024,3314,3994,4174,456

20194,7034,8705,0444,709161OSPI4,4764,4544,6484,7094,8884,9224,809

20204,7014,9175,1444,88829

20214,5554,8115,0834,922-111

20224,4024,6985,0134,809-111

20234,3314,6695,032

20244,3994,7665,164

20254,4174,7945,202

20264,4564,8265,226


20165,5755,5755,5755,5750H5,5755,7055,8945,9406,2286,4686,6716,9196,9006,9426,955

20175,5375,6225,7055,57349M5,5755,6225,7505,7395,9576,1246,2516,4186,3396,3166,266

20185,6075,7505,8945,544206L5,5755,5375,6075,5395,6935,7945,8585,9575,8235,7435,639

20195,5395,7395,9405,69247OSPI5,5755,5735,5445,6925,7385,9226,172

20205,6935,9576,2285,738219

20215,7946,1246,4685,922202

20225,8586,2516,6716,17279

20235,9576,4186,919

20245,8236,3396,900

20255,7436,3166,942

20265,6396,2666,955


201619,73119,73119,73119,7310K - High19,73120,31120,69120,93421,36521,72321,98422,32622,54622,75122,858

201719,71220,01220,31119,620392K - Medium19,73120,01220,20720,28220,55120,75920,89121,11121,23321,35721,406

201819,73120,20720,69119,815392K - Low19,73119,71219,73119,64619,76519,84119,85919,97420,00920,06120,059

201919,64620,28220,93420,007275OSPI19,73119,62019,81520,00720,16520,40720,669

202019,76520,55121,36520,1653860392392275386352222

202119,84120,75921,72320,407352

202219,85920,89121,98420,669222

202319,97421,11122,326

202420,00921,23322,546

202520,06121,35722,751

202620,05921,40622,858

Enrollment(Over) or UnderPortables


Elementary9,68010,314634-1,151-1,225708818

Middle 4,4764,82635090-26021265

High5,5756,266691212-479153823

Total 19,73121,4061,675-849-1,96410615246

Capacity20162026

ES8,5299,089560-1,151-1,225708818

MS4,5664,56690-26021265

HS5,7875,787212-479153823

18,88219,442-849-1,96410615246

560

ES 18-1,225

-260

-479

-1,964


(Headcount)


19,496

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202619731196201981520007201652040720669

Year

Enrollment


(Headcount)


Year

Enrollment


(Headcount)


Year

Enrollment


(Headcount)

K - High

6,751

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202655755705589459406228646866716919690069426955 K - Medium

6,324

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202655755622575057395957612462516418633963166266 K - Low

5,927

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202655755537560755395693579458585957582357435639 OSPI

5,635

201620172018201920202021202220232024202520265575557355445692573859226172

Year

Enrollment


OSPI


REPORT 1049


Everett SD


Grade201020112012201320142015SURVIVAL201620172018201920202021

Kindergarten1,4661,4661,4921,5921,5451,4641,5371,5461,5561,5651,5741,584

Grade 11,5901,4961,5471,5691,6781,622104.62%1,5321,6081,6171,6281,6371,647

Grade 21,4981,5401,4721,5171,6051,69399.29%1,6101,5211,5971,6061,6161,625

Grade 31,3991,4761,5501,4611,5301,636100.24%1,6971,6141,5251,6011,6101,620

Grade 41,4241,3901,4371,5281,4991,585100.29%1,6411,7021,6191,5291,6061,615

Grade 51,4241,4231,3411,4191,5461,51299.43%1,5761,6321,6921,6101,5201,597

K-5 Sub-Total8,8018,7918,8399,0869,4039,5129,5939,6239,6069,5399,5639,688

Grade 61,4971,4091,4291,3411,4001,57099.91%1,5111,5751,6311,6901,6091,519

Grade 71,4071,4701,4061,4541,3661,380100.02%1,5701,5111,5751,6311,6901,609

Grade 81,3761,4011,4371,4061,4491,37299.48%1,3731,5621,5031,5671,6231,681

7-8 Sub-Total4,2804,2804,2724,2014,2154,3224,4544,6484,7094,8884,9224,809

Grade 91,4291,3881,4401,4411,4381,481101.67%1,3951,3961,5881,5281,5931,650

Grade 101,3631,3981,3611,4221,4141,42298.32%1,4561,3721,3731,5611,5021,566

Grade 111,3591,3071,3061,2751,3461,31894.16%1,3391,3711,2921,2931,4701,414

Grade 121,4281,4491,3721,3571,3431,398104.93%1,3831,4051,4391,3561,3571,542

9-12 Sub Total5,5795,5425,4795,4955,5415,6195,5735,5445,6925,7385,9226,172

DISTRICT K-12 TOTAL18,66018,61318,59018,78219,15919,45319,62019,81520,00720,16520,40720,669

OSPI 1049

OSPI


REPORT 1049


Everett SD


Grade201020112012201320142015SURVIVAL201620172018201920202021

Kindergarten1,4661,4661,4921,5921,5451,4641,5371,5461,5561,5651,5741,584

Grade 11,5901,4961,5471,5691,6781,622104.62%1,5321,6081,6171,6281,6371,647

Grade 21,4981,5401,4721,5171,6051,69399.29%1,6101,5211,5971,6061,6161,625

Grade 31,3991,4761,5501,4611,5301,636100.24%1,6971,6141,5251,6011,6101,620

Grade 41,4241,3901,4371,5281,4991,585100.29%1,6411,7021,6191,5291,6061,615

Grade 51,4241,4231,3411,4191,5461,51299.43%1,5761,6321,6921,6101,5201,597

Grade 61,4971,4091,4291,3411,4001,57099.91%1,5111,5751,6311,6901,6091,519

K-6 Sub-Total10,29810,20010,26810,42710,80311,08211,10411,19811,23711,22911,17211,207

Grade 71,4071,4701,4061,4541,3661,380100.02%1,5701,5111,5751,6311,6901,609

Grade 81,3761,4011,4371,4061,4491,37299.48%1,3731,5621,5031,5671,6231,681

7-8 Sub-Total2,7832,8712,8432,8602,8152,7522,9433,0733,0783,1983,3133,290

Grade 91,4291,3881,4401,4411,4381,481101.67%1,3951,3961,5881,5281,5931,650

Grade 101,3631,3981,3611,4221,4141,42298.32%1,4561,3721,3731,5611,5021,566

Grade 111,3591,3071,3061,2751,3461,31894.16%1,3391,3711,2921,2931,4701,414

Grade 121,4281,4491,3721,3571,3431,398104.93%1,3831,4051,4391,3561,3571,542

9-12 Sub Total5,5795,5425,4795,4955,5415,6195,5735,5445,6925,7385,9226,172

DISTRICT K-12 TOTAL18,66018,61318,59018,78219,15919,45319,62019,81520,00720,16520,40720,669


Enrollment Outlook – Long Term (10 year)

Changes expected between 2016 and 2026

By 2026, based on the most current projections:• Elementary Schools – 13 of 18 schools will be over permanent

building capacity, 81 portable classrooms will be needed• Middle Schools – 3 of 5 schools will be over permanent

building capacity, 26 portable classrooms will be needed• High schools – 2 of 3 comprehensive high schools will be over

permanent building capacity, 38 portable classrooms will be needed (30 at JHS, 8 at CHS)

Headcount 2016 2026 Change 2016 2026 2016 2026 ChangeElementary 9,680 10,314 634 +738 +812 70 81 11

Middle 4,476 4,826 350 -90 +260 21 26 5High 5,575 6,266 691 -212 +479 15 38 23Total 19,731 21,406 1,675 +436 +1,551 106 145 39

(Headcount) Permanent Capacity (In place at schools)Over (+) or Under (-)Enrollment Portables

CHARTS

slideShort Term


Elementary9,0959,4269,5389,6809,75575

Middle 4,2074,2224,3234,4764,635159

High5,5175,5735,6355,5755,62247

Total 18,81919,22119,49619,73120,012281

Long term


Elementary9,6809,7559,67710,02410,314634

Middle 4,4764,6354,9174,6694,826350

High5,5755,6225,9576,4186,266691

Total 19,73120,01220,55121,11121,4061,675


20169,6809,6809,6809,6800H9,6809,9029,9969,9509,99310,17210,30010,37510,48210,60710,677

20179,6099,7559,9029,593162M9,6809,7559,7749,6739,6779,8249,94210,02410,12810,24710,314

20189,5579,7749,9969,623151L9,6809,6099,5579,4049,3719,4929,5999,6869,7879,9019,964

20199,4049,6739,9509,60667OSPI9,6809,5939,6239,6069,5399,5639,688

20209,3719,6779,9939,539138

20219,4929,82410,1729,563261

20229,5999,94210,3009,688254

20239,68610,02410,375

20249,78710,12810,482

20259,90110,24710,607

20269,96410,31410,677


20164,4764,4764,4764,4760H4,4764,7044,8015,0445,1445,0835,0135,0325,1645,2025,226

20174,5664,6354,7044,454181M4,4764,6354,6834,8704,9174,8114,6984,6694,7664,7944,826

20184,5674,6834,8014,64835L4,4764,5664,5674,7034,7014,5554,4024,3314,3994,4174,456

20194,7034,8705,0444,709161OSPI4,4764,4544,6484,7094,8884,9224,809

20204,7014,9175,1444,88829

20214,5554,8115,0834,922-111

20224,4024,6985,0134,809-111

20234,3314,6695,032

20244,3994,7665,164

20254,4174,7945,202

20264,4564,8265,226


20165,5755,5755,5755,5750H5,5755,7055,8945,9406,2286,4686,6716,9196,9006,9426,955

20175,5375,6225,7055,57349M5,5755,6225,7505,7395,9576,1246,2516,4186,3396,3166,266

20185,6075,7505,8945,544206L5,5755,5375,6075,5395,6935,7945,8585,9575,8235,7435,639

20195,5395,7395,9405,69247OSPI5,5755,5735,5445,6925,7385,9226,172

20205,6935,9576,2285,738219

20215,7946,1246,4685,922202

20225,8586,2516,6716,17279

20235,9576,4186,919

20245,8236,3396,900

20255,7436,3166,942

20265,6396,2666,955


201619,73119,73119,73119,7310K - High19,73120,31120,69120,93421,36521,72321,98422,32622,54622,75122,858

201719,71220,01220,31119,620392K - Medium19,73120,01220,20720,28220,55120,75920,89121,11121,23321,35721,406

201819,73120,20720,69119,815392K - Low19,73119,71219,73119,64619,76519,84119,85919,97420,00920,06120,059

201919,64620,28220,93420,007275OSPI19,73119,62019,81520,00720,16520,40720,669

202019,76520,55121,36520,1653860392392275386352222

202119,84120,75921,72320,407352

202219,85920,89121,98420,669222

202319,97421,11122,326

202420,00921,23322,546

202520,06121,35722,751

202620,05921,40622,858

EnrollmentOver (+) or Under (-)Portables

(Headcount)Permanent Capacity(In place at schools)Capacity


Elementary9,68010,314634+738+812708111

Middle 4,4764,826350-90+26021265

High5,5756,266691-212+479153823

Total 19,73121,4061,675+436+1,55110614539

Capacity20162026

ES8,9429,502560-738-812708818

MS4,5664,56690-26021265

HS5,7875,787212-479153823

19,29519,855-436-1,55110615246

560

ES 18-812

-260

-903

-1,975


(Headcount)


19,496

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202619731196201981520007201652040720669

Year

Enrollment


(Headcount)


Year

Enrollment


(Headcount)


Year

Enrollment


(Headcount)

K - High

6,751

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202655755705589459406228646866716919690069426955 K - Medium

6,324

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202655755622575057395957612462516418633963166266 K - Low

5,927

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025202655755537560755395693579458585957582357435639 OSPI

5,635

201620172018201920202021202220232024202520265575557355445692573859226172

Year

Enrollment


OSPI


REPORT 1049


Everett SD


Grade201020112012201320142015SURVIVAL201620172018201920202021

Kindergarten1,4661,4661,4921,5921,5451,4641,5371,5461,5561,5651,5741,584

Grade 11,5901,4961,5471,5691,6781,622104.62%1,5321,6081,6171,6281,6371,647

Grade 21,4981,5401,4721,5171,6051,69399.29%1,6101,5211,5971,6061,6161,625

Grade 31,3991,4761,5501,4611,5301,636100.24%1,6971,6141,5251,6011,6101,620

Grade 41,4241,3901,4371,5281,4991,585100.29%1,6411,7021,6191,5291,6061,615

Grade 51,4241,4231,3411,4191,5461,51299.43%1,5761,6321,6921,6101,5201,597

K-5 Sub-Total8,8018,7918,8399,0869,4039,5129,5939,6239,6069,5399,5639,688

Grade 61,4971,4091,4291,3411,4001,57099.91%1,5111,5751,6311,6901,6091,519

Grade 71,4071,4701,4061,4541,3661,380100.02%1,5701,5111,5751,6311,6901,609

Grade 81,3761,4011,4371,4061,4491,37299.48%1,3731,5621,5031,5671,6231,681

7-8 Sub-Total4,2804,2804,2724,2014,2154,3224,4544,6484,7094,8884,9224,809

Grade 91,4291,3881,4401,4411,4381,481101.67%1,3951,3961,5881,5281,5931,650

Grade 101,3631,3981,3611,4221,4141,42298.32%1,4561,3721,3731,5611,5021,566

Grade 111,3591,3071,3061,2751,3461,31894.16%1,3391,3711,2921,2931,4701,414

Grade 121,4281,4491,3721,3571,3431,398104.93%1,3831,4051,4391,3561,3571,542

9-12 Sub Total5,5795,5425,4795,4955,5415,6195,5735,5445,6925,7385,9226,172

DISTRICT K-12 TOTAL18,66018,61318,59018,78219,15919,45319,62019,81520,00720,16520,40720,669

OSPI 1049

OSPI


REPORT 1049


Everett SD


Grade201020112012201320142015SURVIVAL201620172018201920202021

Kindergarten1,4661,4661,4921,5921,5451,4641,5371,5461,5561,5651,5741,584

Grade 11,5901,4961,5471,5691,6781,622104.62%1,5321,6081,6171,6281,6371,647

Grade 21,4981,5401,4721,5171,6051,69399.29%1,6101,5211,5971,6061,6161,625

Grade 31,3991,4761,5501,4611,5301,636100.24%1,6971,6141,5251,6011,6101,620

Grade 41,4241,3901,4371,5281,4991,585100.29%1,6411,7021,6191,5291,6061,615

Grade 51,4241,4231,3411,4191,5461,51299.43%1,5761,6321,6921,6101,5201,597

Grade 61,4971,4091,4291,3411,4001,57099.91%1,5111,5751,6311,6901,6091,519

K-6 Sub-Total10,29810,20010,26810,42710,80311,08211,10411,19811,23711,22911,17211,207

Grade 71,4071,4701,4061,4541,3661,380100.02%1,5701,5111,5751,6311,6901,609

Grade 81,3761,4011,4371,4061,4491,37299.48%1,3731,5621,5031,5671,6231,681

7-8 Sub-Total2,7832,8712,8432,8602,8152,7522,9433,0733,0783,1983,3133,290

Grade 91,4291,3881,4401,4411,4381,481101.67%1,3951,3961,5881,5281,5931,650

Grade 101,3631,3981,3611,4221,4141,42298.32%1,4561,3721,3731,5611,5021,566

Grade 111,3591,3071,3061,2751,3461,31894.16%1,3391,3711,2921,2931,4701,414

Grade 121,4281,4491,3721,3571,3431,398104.93%1,3831,4051,4391,3561,3571,542

9-12 Sub Total5,5795,5425,4795,4955,5415,6195,5735,5445,6925,7385,9226,172

DISTRICT K-12 TOTAL18,66018,61318,59018,78219,15919,45319,62019,81520,00720,16520,40720,669


High School Options - Scenario A

Scenario A – Status quo, no new high school, no boundary changesImplications• Continue to add portable classrooms at high schools as needed

for growth• By 2023, 30 portables at JHS (14 existing), 8 at CHS (1 existing),

0 at EHS• One-half of JHS tennis courts will be out of commission• In 2023, enrollment peaks at JHS (2,488), CHS (1,982), EHS (1,694)• After 2023, no new portables will be needed until about 2030• Cost of new portables = $4.6m


Jackson High School

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27

30

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High School Options – Scenario A


Cascade High School

1

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468

High School Options – Scenario A


High School Options - Scenario B

Scenario B – New high school in 2022Implications• Continue to add portables until new high school opens in 2022• By 2021, 25 portables at JHS (14 existing), 4 at CHS (1 existing), 0

at EHS• One-quarter of JHS tennis courts will be out of commission• In 2021, enrollment at JHS (2,377), CHS (1,890), EHS (1,615)• In 2022, enrollment could be equalized at about 1,500 at all 4

comprehensive high schools• After 2021, no new portables will be needed for the foreseeable

future• Cost of new portables = $2.8m• Cost of new high school = $185m


Jackson High School

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High School Options – Scenario B

18

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Cascade High School

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High School Options – Scenario B


High School Options - Scenario BPreliminary Site Plans – Comprehensive High School #4


High School Options - Scenario B


High School Options - Scenario BPossible February 2018 Bond Schedule

Update FacilityNeeds Assessments

Develop Draft Bond Proposal

• CFAC, TAC, SLT and cabinet developand review bond proposal

• Board discuss bond proposal

Finalize bond proposal

• CFAC, TAC, and Cabinet review bond proposal

• Board discussion and direction on bond proposal

• Board approve bond resolution

Update Enrollment & Capacity Projections

• Enrollment projections updated• CFAC review enrollment & capacity projections• Cabinet review enrollment & capacity projections• Board review enrollment & capacity projections

Community Engagement On Bond Proposal

Special Election

June

2016

July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2016

Jan

2017

Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2017

Jan

2018

Feb

Thoughtexchange


High School Options - Scenario C

Scenario C – No new high school, bus students northward beginning in 2018 Implications• Beginning in 2018, bus 325 students from JHS to CHS, and from CHS

to EHS• By 2023,17 portables at JHS (14 existing), 8 at CHS (1 existing), 5 at

EHS (0 existing)• JHS tennis courts will not impacted• In 2023, enrollment peaks at JHS (2,163), CHS (1,982), EHS (2,019)• After 2023, no new portables will be needed until 2030• Cost of new portables = $3.0 million• Cost of transportation beginning after 2018 = approximately $280k

per year


Jackson High School

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High School Options – Scenario C


Cascade High School

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Everett High School


4 5

3

2

1


High School Options - Scenario C

Scenario C – Possible school boundaries



2023 enrollment projections summaryScenario A – Status quo, no new high schoolScenario B – New high school in 2022Scenario C – No new high school, bus students north

A B CJHS 2,488 1,541 2,163CHS 1,982 1,541 1,982EHS 1,694 1,541 2,019HS #4 - 1,541 -

Note 1 – EPS “optimum” high school size is 1,500Note 2 - Capacities: JHS = 1,765, CHS = 1,801 , EHS = 1,897



The “big” story• Each of our high schools started out smaller and grew

into their current size• CHS was built when EHS enrollment reached 2,353• JHS was built when CHS enrollment reached 2,328• By 2023, JHS enrollment is projected to reach 2,462

The “big” question: When should we build our next high school?


Additional High School Considerations

What have some other districts done?Double shifting• School operates in two shifts, with one group of students in the

building early in the day and a second group of students later in the day.

Staggered shift or 9 period day• School start begins in staggered pattern, where students begin and

end at different times of the day to reduce total number in the school at one time.

Year round school• 45-15 plan, in which students attend school for 45 days then have 15

days off or the 60-20 and 90-30 calendars, where students are in class for 60 or 90 days with vacations of 20 or 30 days respectively.



What have some other districts done? Factors to consider• How would we equitably choose which students’ school days would

start early or late?• Would we be able to offer all of our AP, CIHS and electives equitably

to all students each day using these schedule shifts?• How might this impact our students’ academic programs for college

admissions and scholarships?• How would each scheduling shift impact student access to

afterschool activities, athletics, volunteering and jobs?



What have some other districts done? Factors to consider - continued• How will these schedule shifts impact family morning and evening

routines, childcare options, and transportation to and from school?• Will there be a unintended or unseen financial impact on families by

making such schedule shifts?• What other possible schedule shifts might be considered to reduce

overcrowding?



Questions from school board?


One-on-One Conversations

Board members move to individual tables

Community meets with board members• What concerns do you have?• What are your thoughts or ideas?• What else should we consider?

Board reassembles at 7:10 p.m.



Board members: What did you hear?

Themes, thoughts, ideas, concerns



Next steps• Process feedback from tonight’s meeting• Additional engagement and communications -

Thought Exchange, telephone town hall, website, etc.• Community forums on enrollment growth at middle

schools• Clarification of technology needs• Continued planning and refinement of cost estimates• CFAC and TAC advice and feedback

Thank you!

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