high resolution lmk-simulations (1 km) for extreme precipitation events in southern germany j.w....

High resolution LMK-simulations (1 km)for extreme precipitation events in southern Germany

J.W. SchipperInstitute for Meteorology and Climate Research, University of Karlsruhe

Bad Herrenalb, 07.03.2007

Content

EU-Project PREVIEW Simulations Event 2002 First evaluation of simulations Event 2005


EU-IP PREVIEW

Volcanoes

Fires

Earthquakes

Windstorms

Man-made

Landslides

Floods

Many risks exist ...


EU-IP PREVIEW

GEO-INFORMATION SERVICES FOR RISK MANAGEMENT ON A EUROPEAN LEVEL

PREVIEW – PREVIEW – PREVPREVention, ention, IInformation, and nformation, and EEarly arly WWarningarning


EU-IP PREVIEW


EU-IP PREVIEW

PREVIEW: PREVention, Information, and Early Warning

Large `Integrated Project´ (IP) of the European Union (EU) - 56 partner!

Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK) is involved in the FLOODING part

•Short-Range Forecasting (until 3 days)Partner: IWS, BfG, LfU, IÖR, InfoTerra, Geomer

•Medium-Range Forecasting (between 3 and 10 days)Partner: DWD, ECMWF, ARPA-SIM, JRC, BfG, VITUKI,

Delft-Hydraulics


Area of interest


Time period

Period with heavy precipitation: August 2002

Precipitation amout 6-12 Aug. 2002 in Bavaria, Germany

Rainfall amounts:

6th & 7th August 2002

•139 mm (Ruhpolding)

•133 mm (Aschau/Chiemgau)

10th August 2002

•78 mm (Baiern-Kleinrohrsdorf)

•62 mm (Kempten)

Source: Hochwassernachrichtendienst, Bayerisches Landesamt für Wasserwirtschaft


Orography

Max. height: 2.918 m

7000 m

3.235 m

2800 m

3.444 m

1000 m


Simulations

1000 m Stationen

7000 m 2800 m Radar

August 2002

1 5 10 15 20 25 30

7000 m2800 m1000 m

Rainfall rates

mm


Simulations

August 2002

1 5 10 15 20 25 30

7000 m2800 m1000 m

Rainfall rates

1000 m Stationen

7000 m 2800 m Radar

mm


Event 2002


Resolutions


Cross-section

result for 12th August 2002


Cross-section



Comparisons


Heidke Skill Score

observations

true false

simulations

true a b

false c d

EN

ECScoreSkillHeidke

a: hit

b: false alarm

c: failure

d: inverse hit

daC

dcbaN

dcba

cdbdcabaE

C: total hits

N: total events

E: correct by chance


Heidke Skill Score

Possible question:

How well does my model perform on 12th August 2002?

Results for 12th August 2002 (using a criterium of 10 mm/day):

HSS1000m = 0.21

HSS2800m = 0.03

HSS7000m = -0.01

A disadvantage is the arbitrarily chosen criterium of 10 mm/day.


Heidke Skill Score



Heidke Skill Score


1000 m resolution2800 m resolution7000 m resolution


Heidke Skill Score



20.08.2005 07:00 – 21.08.2005 06:00

21.08.2005 07:00 – 22.08.2005 06:00

Event 2005


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Aichstetten

20

0Nie

ders

ch

lag

[m

m]

Periode: 20. August 2005 0:00 bis 22. August 2005 23:00

Messungen meteorologisches Modell

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Breitachklamm

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Wiblingen

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Kempten

Event 2005


Summary

Finished 10-day period in 2002 Finished 3-day period in 2005 Started first comparisons with

measurement stations Comparisons with radar data needs

to be done

high resolution lmk-simulations (1 km) for extreme precipitation events in southern germany j.w....

Documents

bad herrenalb

resolution slide

chance slide

resolutions slide

euip preview slide

early warning slide

delfthydraulics slide

university of karlsruhe