high frequency trading, equity, efficiency and the release ...•high frequency traders and systems...
TRANSCRIPT
Seth Meyer, ChairmanWorld Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chairing Agency
High Frequency Trading,
Equity, Efficiency and
the Release of Information
WAOB - World Agricultural Outlook Board WASDE - World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICEC):
• Wheat
• Rice
• Oilseeds (incl. Soybeans)
• Grains (Maize, Sorghum, Barley, Oats)
• Cotton
• Sugar
• Beef, Pork Poultry
• Dairy
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee (ICEC)WASDE Process
Ukraine Corn
WASDE and Crop Production and are market movers
Some of the US Government’s Principal Federal Economic Indicators (PFEIs), some with ‘lockup’
•World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) + Crop Production-USDA
•Crop Production - USDA
•Housing Starts - Dept. of Commerce
•Gross Domestic Product - Dept. of Commerce
• Employment – Dept. of Labor
Are High Frequency Traders a Positive or Negative?• They just ‘are’. USDA is agnostic with respect to
their presence.
• They are not going anywhere so we have adjusted.
• They are ‘fundamental’ traders, it may be ‘simplistic’ and ‘lack nuance’ (?) but rely on some reduced form representation of market response to released information.
• Evidence suggests they don’t ‘solve’ the market completely or at least not in the short run.
are
There is No Going Back
Peak Movements by Commodity
Changes in Lockup Over TimeMotivations not independent
• Changes in release times • After Market Close• Before Market Open• Noon (11am Chicago)
• Changes in Market Status• Market Closed/Market Open when released• No longer a choice
• Press in ‘Lockup’
Big Movement Days by Year
Source: CFTC Sharp Price Movements in Commodity Futures Markets
Daytime Trading Hours Overnight Trading HoursTop Price Movement Days
Why noon in Washington D.C.?
Chicago, Illinois
London, UK
Dalian, China
8am Eastern 12 noon Eastern 3pm Eastern
Press In Lockup (ended July 2018)
• Pressroom with dedicated machines on an internal network (no outside communications).
• Access available for no charge to credentialed press operations.
• Would receive Crop Production and WASDE 90 minutes before release.
• Would load stories and ??? into their own system queue.
• Single physical switch isolated USDA and Press, thrown at 12:00 noon.
Comparison of Data flow PathsUSDA (purple) vs Press (yellow)
Closer
Closer…….Closer
Closer…….Closer……there it is.
Associated Press Website
October 2018 July 2018, since deleted
File TransmissionPress
Distance
~1 mile
Press File Size
0 or 1
USDA File Distance
~1000 miles
USDA File Size
40 pages1-2 mb
depending on file type
August 10 data compared to previous releases
• August 10
• 3,570,640 Hits
• 339.2 GB
• July 12
• 1,649,917 Hits
• 211.7 GB
• June 12
• 485,084 Hits
• 68.3 GB
The August 10 release saw a 636%
increase in requests from June
0
100
200
300
400
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug
Hits GB
Million Hits GB Downloaded
From 8am - 8pm Eastern3,570,640 Hits on WASDE site
● Peaking at 11:55am● 77.8% of Hits were offloaded to distributed network system
339.2GB of bandwidth● 99% of bandwidth was offloaded to distributed network system
Summary of August 10th, 2018
View of Traffic from 8am - 8pm Eastern on August 10
Pre-Report Trade Range for Global Grain Carryout Stocks for 2018/19
Reuters
China Corn Production RevisionsNovember WASDE
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Mill
ion
Met
ric
Ton
s
November WASDE October WASDE
Cumulative Change = 297 mmtBased on Third National Agricultural Census
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics and USDA.
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Sto
cks/
Use
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cks,
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Ton
s
November WASDE October WASDE Stocks/Use
China Corn Stock Changes
Cumulative Change = 149 mmt
Source: USDA.
Pre-Report Trade Range for Global Grain Carryout Stocks for 2018/19
Most of the ‘Surprise’ related to China Stocks
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Wheat Corn Soy
MMT
Wheat
Corn
Soy
December US Corn FuturesNovember 8 WASDE Release
Major WASDE ChangesCorn 2018/19
Ukraine Corn Production+2.5 mmt to 33.5 mmt
US Corn Yield-0.11 mt/ht to 11.23 mt/ht
US Corn Production -3.9 mmt to 371.5 mmt
US Carryout -2.0 mmt to 44.1 mmt
US Price Forecast+$3.94 to $141.73 mt
Conclusions
• We (USDA) are agnostic as to the participation of high frequency traders
• High Frequency Traders and systems are not going anywhere
• We also cannot go back to a trading ‘halt’
• USDA and other data release organizations have to adapt and prepare
• Our objective is to provide a level playing field, speed will still ‘win’
• The report continues to have considerable market effect, indicating a contribution to market information