FOUR PILLARS of the

PRO-POOR AGENDA for

PROSPERITY AND DEVELOPMENT

NATIONAL VALIDATION OCTOBER 17, 2018

MACRO – FISCAL OUTLOOK 2018 to 2023

GROWTH SCENARIOS Baseline and optimistic scenarios Forecast of Govt. Revenue (excluding grants)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

GR

OW

TH

RA

TE

YEAR

GDP Projection 2018-2023

Baseline Scenario Optimistic Scenario

469 500 531 567 645 711

3195.4 3221.7 3387.1

3583.4

3957.0

4294.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Revenue Nominal GDP (millions of US dollars)

FISCAL PERFORANCE Revenue and Expenditure as percent of GDP (Including Net Lending) Forecast of Revenue and Grants

-5.6

-4.8

-3.2 -3.3 -3.4

-3.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Total Revenue Total expenditure & NL Fiscal balance

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Revenue and Grant % GDP

Revenue Grant

Expenditure Performance under Base Scenario

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Current and Capital Expenditure % GDP

Current Expenditure Capital Expenditure

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Export/Import as Percent of GDP

Export Import

20.4

24.5

20.0

16.0

12.0

8.5

27.0

22.0

18.0

14.0

10.0

7.0

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Consumer Prices 2018-2023

Consumer prices (annual average)

Consumer prices (end of period)

PILLAR ONE

GOAL:

To empower Liberians with the tools to gain control of their lives

thru more equitable provision of opportunities in education,

health, youth development, and social protection

THE NATIONAL TARGETS—EDUCATION AND HEALTH

Higher Institutions of

Learning (HIL)

Rollout a more

structured strategy for

improving HIL around

six core thrusts by 2020

Under 5 Mortality and Malnutrition

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1. Reduce maternal mortality ratio from 774 to 497 per 100,000 live births

2. Reduce Under-5 mortality ratio to 57 per 1000 live births 3. Reduce Under-5 stunting (malnutrition) from 32 percent to 22

percent 4. Reduce malaria prevalence by more than half to 20 percent 5. Raise the share of rural population living within 5KM of service

delivery point to 75 percent 6. Ninety percent of public health facilities will report no stock out of

essential medicines 7. Respond to 100 percent of disease outbreaks within 48 hours 8. Reduce out of pocket payments to 35 percent of total health care

cost through sustainable health financing mechanism.

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30

35

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30

40

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60

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100

2018 2020 2023

Perc

en

t

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of

death

s p

er

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00 liv

e b

irth

s

U-5 Mortality Stunting

8 Major National Health Targets

1. ECE enrollment up 300 percent; student: room ratio < 50 2. Basic literacy and numeracy by age 6 3. NER for Junior High raised to 40% 4. 70 percent of WASSCE takers pass 5. Girls Out of school rated reduce to 10%

5 Major National Education Targets

20.4% 26.7% 26.1%

77.3% 77.3% 77.3%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

2013 2014 2015

Comparison with SS Africa

Liberia Subsaharan Africa (LIC)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2018 2023

Qualified Teachers

JHS Net Enrollment to 40% by 2023

Technical Vocational

Education and Training

(TVET)

Lifelong learning

opportunities through

scaled-up TVET and

Alternative Learning

Programs (ALP)

ED

UC

AT

ION

YOUTH AND SPORTS DEVELOPMENT

375,000 Women across

15 counties

100% Access to women-specific

health services

50% Reduction in number of

SGBV incidence

10% increase in political

participation

WOMEN EMPOWERMENT

15,000 Enrolled in social

inclusion through work programs

10,000 enrolled

in life skills and public works

6 Sports academies

TH E N A TIONAL TA RG ETS—WOMEN, C H I LDREN, YO U TH, PWD , O L D A G E, S PEC IAL PO PU LATIONS

Social Protection Target

Population

Potential

population

impacted

1 Youth Development 25,000 117,500

2 Students receiving school

meals 300,000 300,000

3 Cash transfers to 10,000

households; 13,000

individuals

10,000

13,000

63,000

5 Pregnant women

(UNICEF) 12,000 12,000

6 Disability grants 10,000 10,000

7 Old age social grants 70,000 329,000

Total 440,000 831,500

REACH THE FURTHEST FIRST.

DON’T LEAVE

ANYONE

BEHIND

Five year strategic and action plans for National Commission

on Disability; NCD becomes fully operational

At least half of youth who

cannot go on to higher

education are provided

with some TVET and/or

Alternative Learning

opportunity

PILLAR TWO

GOAL:

A stable macroeconomic environment enabling private sector-

led economic growth, greater competitiveness, and

diversification of the economy

THE NATIONAL TARGETS

Creating the Right Policy Environment

Expand Fiscal space: (increase domestic revenues; hold expenditure for government operations constant)

Stabilize the Monetary System and Increase Financial Inclusion: (allow FX rate to float; expand mobile platform use)

Transform Business Regulatory Environment and Climate: (doing business and cross-border trade improvement)

Increasing Competitiveness of Existing Industries

Agriculture: (Food crops: rice, cassava and vegetables; Cash crops: rubber, oil palm and cocoa value addition)

Forestry: (improve regulations, better forest contract management, value addition)

Fisheries: (improve production and processing of artisanal communities)

Transforming the Infrastructure

Road: (517km roads connecting all county capitals, 260km of urban roads, 237.1km secondary road constructed and paved; constructed material testing facilities in 5 regions; 4,184.7km of primary, secondary and urban roads maintained; zoning laws standardized and enforced)

Energy: (Increase universal electricity access by 30%; generation from 134mw to270mw; reduce cost from 0.36 to 0.25kwh; increase transmission and distribution from 511km to 2279km)

ICT: (30% access to fiber optic backbone; Double ICT access and coverage; 6 ministries and agencies on e-government platform)

WASH: (85% access to basic water services; 85% access to basic sanitation; 60% access to safely managed sanitation; 75% of urban communities open defecation free)

T H E N A T I O N A L T A R GE T S - S H O R T T O ME D I U M T E R M

Improve Governance and Management of State-Owned Enterprises

Diversify the Economy

Private Sector Development

Public-Private Partnership

Private Sector Finance Fund

Micro, small and medium enterprise(MSME) Development Fund

Special Economic Zone (SEZ)

Business Development Services (BDS)

Financial Sector Development

Manufacturing Sector Development

Expanding Trade and Regional Integration

Reduce processing, transit times, and costs to MRU countries level

T H E N A T I O N A L T A R GE T S S U S T A I N I N G ME D I U M T O L O N G T E R M GR O W T H

PILLAR THREE

GOAL:

A more peaceful, unified society that enables economic

transformation and sustainable development

THE NATIONAL TARGETS

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Ending Fragility and the Root Causes of Conflict

Increasing Civic Trust and Coexistence

Peacebuilding and reconciliation as part of the national curriculum

Implementing Liberia Peace Building Plan and Strategic Roadmap for Healing, Peacebuilding and Reconciliation to improve social cohesion and reconciliation

Capacity building for justice and rule of law institutions especially targeting areas disproportionately affected by poverty and conflict using the justice and security regional hubs mechanisms

Using Sports as tool for peace and reconciliation for children, young men and women

National Youth Service Program

Decreasing Violent Tendencies

Strengthened conflict Early Warning and early response System at county and district levels

Capacity building at the Liberia Land authority to strengthen land administration processes

Improve land use planning and natural resource management frameworks to ensure fair distribution of benefits from natural resources

Restructured Palava Hut engagements to: address conflicts/ atonement; mental health training for PTSD- (group therapy) and to create awareness of national frameworks that are more appropriately suited to resolve serious crimes – particularly SGBV;

Ensuring Access to Justice, Rule of Law and Human Rights

Improving Judicial Systems

Case management policy and system

Construct, furnish, and equip physical infrastructure for outstanding Circuit, Magisterial, SGBV and Juvenile court

facilities in three additional courts

Increasing term of court to allow for adequate timeframe towards the adjudication of

Improving Access to Justice

Improving justice service delivery in rural areas with a focus on vulnerable groups by: increasing the number and

capacity public prosecutors, public defenders, legal aid practitioners, and corrections officials, and social workers

Reducing pre-trial detention: the government aims to tackle pre-trial detention by: prioritising the provision of

legal aid and assistance to pre-trial detainees; put in place a plea-bargaining system

Complying with International, Regional, and National Human Rights Standards

Improving socio-economic human rights by: Implementing social protection initiatives on health, education

Improving Security Sector Delivery

Strengthening community policing initiatives

Decentralizing hotline support at a county and district level with the aim of improve reducing response times,

reduce crime, and mitigate and deescalating conflict.

Passing Public Safety Bill, Bureau of Correction Bill, Fire Service Bill; Drafting and enacting law for medical

examiner office; Reviewing and domesticating Arms-Trade Treaty

Targeted and specialized recruitment for security sector personnel

T H E N A T I O N A L T A R GE T S S U S T A I N I N G ME D I U M T O L O N G T E R M GR O W T H

PILLAR FOUR

GOAL:

An inclusive and accountable public sector for shared prosperity

and sustainable development

THE NATIONAL TARGETS

THE NATIONAL TARGETS

0

50

100

Pe

rce

nt

Registrations

citizens and residents registration in national biometric database

50, 47% 57, 53%

On e-Procurement Others

Use of e-procurement 2023

REBALANCING AWAY FROM MONROVIA

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Themes • Building a more capable state • Reducing corruption

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50%

60%

70%

2018 2019 2021 2022 2023

IFMIS USE CSC Delivery County Treasury (no.)

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5

10

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25

30

35

2018 2019 2021 2022 2023

LACC Prosecutions

Building a More Capable State 1. PFM Effectiveness - Domestic

Resource Mobilization with 10% increase per year; improved service delivery, etc

2. National Databases will increase over time; along with benefits for prioritization.

3. Public Service Reforms Reducing Corruption 1. LACC Effectiveness 2. Empowering other Integrity

Institutions 3. E-Procurement, E-government

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PAPD

HOW WILL THE REGIONS AND COUNTIES BENEFIT?

THE NATIONAL TARGETS

ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT

POTENTIAL OF

REGIONS AND

ABSOLUTE

POVERTY

Artisanal mining

Cross border trade

Oil palm

rubber

fishing

Forestry

Oil palm

Mining

Port of Greenville

Food production

Mining

Rubber

Cross border trade

Rubber

Forestry

Fishing

Port of Buchanan

Trade and commerce

Fishing

Financial services

Port of Monrovia

Forestry

Mining

Oil palm

Cross border trade

Fishing

rubber

Development Corridors/Special Economic Zones/Roads