heat roadmap europe implications for the european energy ...€“-political... · compared to...

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

This project has received funding from

the European Union's Horizon 2020

research and innovation programme

under grant agreement No. 695989.

Heat Roadmap Europe –Implications for the European energy

transition

Berlin, January 24, 2019

Tobias Fleiter

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI)

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Where do we start from?

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Heating & cooling is very important and fossil based

Non-H/C50%

Process heating

16%

Space heating27%

Hot water4%

Other heating1%

Process cooling

1%

Space cooling

1%

Heating and cooling

50%

High relevance: H&C about 50% of FED!

Heating and cooling demand in 2015 in the EU28 by end-use

compared to total final energy demand

42%

12%

12%

12%

9%

8%

4%

1%0%

0%Gas

Oil

Biomass

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Others (fossil)

Solar thermal

Heat pumps

Others (RES)

2015 EU final energy demand by energy carrier

2015 shares:

Fossil: 66%, RES: 13%, El+DH: 21%

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





EU H&C is very diverse and local

Diversity in main influencing factors2015 EU final energy demand by energy carrier and country

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Ge

rma

ny

Fra

nce

Italy

United…

Po

lan

dS

pain

Neth

erl

an

ds

Be

lgiu

mS

wed

en

Fin

lan

dA

ustr

iaR

om

an

iaC

zech

Re

pu

blic

Hun

gary

Gre

ece

Slovak…

Po

rtu

ga

lD

en

ma

rkIr

ela

nd

Bu

lga

ria

Cro

atia

Lithu

ania

Latv

iaS

love

nia

Esto

nia

Luxe

mb

ou

rgC

ypru

sM

alta

To

tal

fin

al

en

erg

y [

TW

h]

Others (RES)

Solar thermal

Heat pumps

Biomass

Electricity

District heating

Others (fossil)

Oil

Coal

Gas

Total

• Heat supply mix varies by country

• Grid infrastructure varies

• Excess heat and RES resources are

local

• Building typology is local and

country specific

• Climate conditions are regional and

country specific

• Political context is country specific

• ...

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





What is Heat Roadmap Europe?

HRE 1, 2, 3, 4

• Study 1 (2012): will district heating play a role in the decarbonisation of the European energy system?

• Study 2 (2013): what is the balance between heat savings and heat supply at an EU level?

• Study 3 (2015, STRATEGO WP2): low-carbon heating and cooling strategies for 5 member states

• Study 4 (2016-2019): integrated low-carbon heating and cooling strategies for 14 member states

Our Purpose in HRE4

• Creating scientific evidence to support long-term energy strategies at local, national, and EU level and empower the transition to a low-carbon energy system

• By quantifying the impact of various alternatives for addressing the heating and cooling sectors

HRE4 Countries: 14 Largest EU Countries by Heat Demand = 90% of EU Heat

1. Germany

2. France

3. United Kingdom

4. Italy

5. Poland

6. Spain

7. Netherlands

8. Sweden

9. Belgium

10. Czech Republic

11. Romania

12. Austria

13. Finland

14. Hungary

90% of EU heat demand

Making an Impact at Member State Level

Technical Outputs

• Profiling (incl. industry and cooling)

• Maps

• Models

• Technology Data

• Low-Carbon Heating & Cooling Strategies

Communication

• Website, Videos

• Newsletters,Twitter

• Workshops

• Reports and Scientific Papers

90% of EU heat demand

Visit us at: https://heatroadmap.eu/

https://heatroadmap.eu/

Who are we in HRE?

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Method and results

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Our ambition and approach

• Decarbonise in line with Paris

Agreement

• Consider local nature of heating and

cooling

• Consider the wider energy system

• Technically possible, socio-

economically feasible

Ambition 4 Models combined

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Combining the strengths of models

Energy System Transition

(WP5/6)

Profile of H&C and baseline to

2050

(WP3/4)Energy System Operation in

2050 (WP5/6)

Location of Heating & Cooling

(WP2)

Heating & Cooling

(Creating Data)

Energy System

(Creating Scenarios)

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Step 1 - GIS: 3 steps to calculate economically feasible DH expansion

Calculate hectare level heatdemand using linear regression

model taking into accountpopulation, land-use, built-up

area and soil sealing

Calculate DH supply costs bycombining demands, costs and

connectivity

0

5

10

15

20

0 2.000 4.000 6.000

Ave

rage

dis

trib

uti

on

ca

pit

al c

ost

s, €

/GJ

Cumulative heat demand, TJ/a

Skalluvaara, FI

Calculate DH synergy regions by connecting prospective DH

systems with potential sources like renewables and excess heat

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





GIS analysis: Key messages

• District heating can cost-effectively provide at least half of the heating demand in 2050 in

the 14 HRE countries, expanded from about 12% today.

Investment initiative needed to quadruple thermal grids in European cities

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Step 2 - Profiles: Detailed picture of H&C energy demand in 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Otherheating

Spacecooling

Hot waterSFH

Spaceheating

SFH

Hot waterMFH

Spaceheating

MFH

Fin

al

en

erg

y [

TW

h] Solar thermal

Oil

Heat pumps

Gas

Electricity

District heating

Coal

Biomass

Example result: Final energy demand in residential H&C demand EU28

Use bottom-up model FORECAST to break down final energy demand by end-use, country, sector and temperature level

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Profiles: Key messages

• H&C is very important with ~50% of EU28 final energy demand and still mainly based on

fossil fuels (>65%)

• Results allow a deep dive into heat and cold demand in each country

H&C should make up a core component of any long-term strategies for sustainable energy system

transitions.

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Step 3 - 2050 demand baseline and energy saving cost curves

Develop energy saving cost curves to calculate balance between heat savings and heat supply

Use bottom-up model FORECAST to generate a baseline development towards 2050

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2015 2030 2050 2015 2030 2050 2015 2030 2050

Industry Residential Tertiary

De

live

red

H&

C [T

Wh

]

Space cooling

Process heating

Process cooling

Space heating

Hot water

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

80% 85% 90% 95% 100%

Pro

xy s

peci

fic

cost

s fo

r sa

vin

gs

(€/M

Wh

)

Remaining percentage of baseline delivered heating demand

2050 Heating cost curves for Industry AT

BE

CZ

FI

FR

DE

HU

IT

NL

PL

RO

ES

SE

UK

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Cost Curves: Key messages

• Energy efficiency reduces costs for the transition

• An investment of €3,600 billion can potentially lower buildings’ heat demand by about 1000

TWh by 2050 - nearly 40% of today’s heat demand in buildings.

• This allows a reduction of total delivered heat demand by about one third compared to

2015.

More frequent refurbishment (1.5-2%/a) and

and deeper renovations are needed

Deeper thermal renovation of buildings that anyway

undergo a renovation is the most important missed

opportunity

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Step 4 - The transition towards 2050 for the entire energy system

Example: Future deployment of RES in NL sees drastic increase in wind and solar capacities

Use JRC TIMES model to calculate a cost-optimal transition towards a 2050 low-carbon

energy system

• JRC TIMES calculates the transition from todayto 2050

• JRC TIMES model used to capture entireenergy system also including non-H&C sectors like transport

• Calculation of least cost path

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





• Biomass and hydro used up to their technical, sustainable potential. The other renewable resources are used up to the economic optimum.

• Electricity plays important role in transport, buildings and industry decarbonisation

• By 2050, energy import dependency can reduce from 55% to below 20%.

The energy system transition: Key messages

Fast and ambitious deployment of wind and solar

energy is fundamental

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Step 5 - 2050 energy system with hourly resolution

Example result: Hourly demand and supply for one week in summer in the Netherlands in 2050

Use model Energy Plan to calculate detailed 2050 energy system with hourly resolution

Mobility

Flexible Electricity

Cooling

Heating

Solar etc.

Bioenergy Fuels

Combined Heat & Power

Power Exchange

Resources Conversion Demands

Heat Pump/ Electric Boiler

Fluctuating Heat

Fluctuating Electricity

Thermal

Storage

Wind etc.

Fuel Storage

Electric Vehicles

Electrofuels

Combustion Engines

Electricity Storage

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Heat Roadmaps for transitions

• Decarbonise in line with Paris Agreement

• Technically possible, socio-economically feasible

• Consider local nature of heating and cooling


Everywhere

Deep energy savings

Combine savings and supply

~30-50% demand reduction

Urban areas

District energy networks

High demand density areas

Supply ~half of energy demand

Rural areas

Mainly heat pumps

Low demand density areas

Remaining ~half of the energy demand

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Thank you!

Contact: [email protected]

Heat Roadmap Europe: www.heatroadmap.eu

Pan-European Thermal Atlas: www.heatroadmap.eu/maps

Twitter: @HeatRoadmapEU

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.heatroadmap.eu/

http://www.heatroadmap.eu/maps

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Backup

HRE Methodology

Data and mapping

District Heating Potential

District Heating Resources

Building Demand Savings Potential

Costs of Making Savings

BAU (References)

Heat Roadmap Europe

Alternatives

Results (PES, CO2, Costs)

Energy System Potential

Energy System Resources

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





• Hourly resolution

• Sector integration

• Smart energy system approach

Energy system dynamics

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





Data flows between models

Main conclusions from profiles

• Very diverse composition of energy carriers for H&C supply across countries. Still:• Fossil fuels account for >65% in EU28 FED for H&C• Gas is the most dominant fuel in EU28 and in most countries• Of RES, only biomass is used substantially; solar thermal, geothermal and heat pumps are still

marginal in almost every country• District heating strong in Nordic and central/eastern countries and marginal in others (UK, Ireland,

Spain, Portugal, Italy)

• Space heating and process heating most relevant end-uses

• Space heating: SFH twice as important as MFHs as an EU28 average, but huge differences on national level

• Process heating: Process heat >200°C accounts for ~50% of industrial H&C FED, and represents a challenge when switching to RES

• Cooling accounts for ~2% of total FED for H&C and currently has low shares in most countries but thepotential to grow strongly in future

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU





The building blocks of the EU heating & cooling transition according the HRE

• Decarbonise in line with Paris Agreement

• Technically possible, socio-economically feasible

• Consider local nature of heating and cooling


Everywhere Urban areas Rural areas

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