healthcare jobs in north carolina - auber · 2019. 11. 4. · healthcare jobs in north carolina: a...

Healthcare Jobs in North Carolina:A quantitative portrait of the healthcare labor market

in the Tarheel State

AndrewBerger-Gross,SeniorEconomistNCDepartmentofCommerce,Labor&EconomicAnalysisDivision(LEAD)

October13,2019

Healthcare Jobs in North Carolina:A quantitative portrait of the healthcare labor market in the Tarheel State

Rapidgrowthinthehealthcaresectorhascreatedjobopportunitiesforworkersinallregionsandatalleducationlevels…

…butwefacechallenges tosupplyingatrainedworkforce tofillthesejobs.

2

Background

3HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina

+ 150%

+ 610%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 [2017]

1997:Children'sHealthInsuranceProgram

Healthcare demand drivers:Aging population and expanded access

Source:U.S.CensusBureau;IPUMS-USA

Age65+

Totalpopulation

1956:Dependents'Medical

CareAct

1965:Medicare&Medicaid

2003:MedicarePartD

2010:AffordableCareAct


Engine of job growth:Healthcare has far outpaced rest of labor market

+ 122%

+ 1204%

-35%

1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

HealthCareandSocialAssistance

Total(alljobs)

Manufacturing

Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis.Periodsofrecession(ingray)areasdefinedbytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.

Recessions


3.3

9.4

1.7

1.2

2.6

1.1

1.9

3.6

1.2

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Help (always) wanted:Health workers are “in-demand” in good times and bad

Source:LEADLaborSupply/DemandAnalyzer.Periodsofrecession(ingray)areasdefinedbytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.

HealthcarePractitionersandTechnicalOccupations

Total(alljobs/workers)

#ofjobseekersperjobopening

HealthcareSupportOccupations


+ 9%

-5%

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Rural retreat:Non-metro counties have fallen behind

Source:U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis(totalwage&salaryemployment).Periodsofrecession(ingray)areasdefinedbytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.

Non-metro:Alljobs

Metro:Alljobs


+ 25%

+ 7%

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Rural retreat:Non-metro counties have fallen behind

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics(UI-coveredemployment).Periodsofrecession(ingray)areasdefinedbytheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.

Non-metro:HealthCareandSocialAssistance

Metro:HealthCareandSocialAssistance

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Non-metro:Alljobs

Metro:Alljobs

HealthcareJobsinNorthCarolina

Workforce challenges


Too tight:Healthcare ranks among the tightest job markets

Source:LEADLaborSupply/DemandAnalyzer:2015-2017annualaverage.

#ofjobseekersperjobopening,byselectedCareerCluster2.9

1.81.6

1.31.2

Alljobs InformationTechnology Finance HealthScience Science,Technology,Engineering&Mathematics


Tight everywhere:Healthcare offers opportunity in rural and urban areas


#ofjobseekersperjobopeninginHealthScience,byregion


Raleigh

Charlotte

2.0

1.2

1.6

1.1

1.41.5

1.81.6

Tight for all types:Healthcare offers opportunity at every education level


#ofjobseekersperjobopeninginHealthScience,byeducationlevel2.9

2.1

1.7

0.8 0.9

Alljobs,alleducationlevels 1)Highschooldiplomaorbelow

2)Post-secondary,belowBachelor's

3)Bachelor'sdegree 4)AboveBachelor'sdegree


9,594

760

15,168

5,616

11,523

771

5,580

1,256

3,889

7,063

2,254516

HealthScience InformationTechnology HealthScience Science,Technology,Engineering&Mathematics

HealthScience Law,PublicSafety,Corrections&Security

Pipeline problems:Relatively few are graduating with health credential


Post-secondary,belowBachelor’s Bachelor’sdegree AboveBachelor’sdegree

Laborneededtoeliminatemismatch

Completers ofpublicly-funded

higheredprograms


Hard to attract teachers:Post-secondary instructors earn less than practitioners

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics(OccupationalEmploymentStatistics):2018data

Medianannualwage

$60,790$43,650

$196,670

$105,520

$65,550

$101,540

$64,520

HealthcarePractitionersand

TechnicalOccupations

Education,Training,andLibraryOccupations

PhysiciansandSurgeons,AllOther

HealthSpecialtiesTeachers,

Postsecondary

BiologicalScienceTeachers,

Postsecondary

NursePractitioners NursingInstructorsandTeachers,Postsecondary


4.9

3.7 3.6

2.92.5

1.8

0.80.4

Transportationandwarehousing

Agriculture,forestry,fishingandhunting

Healthcareandsocialassistance

Manufacturing Accommodationandfoodservices

Construction Professional,scientific,and

technicalservices

Financeandinsurance

A rough job:Healthcare has among highest rates of workplace injury

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics:2017data.TopreasonsforinjuryarefromU.S.-leveldata.

#recordablecasesofinjury/illnessper100workers(FTE),byselectedsector

Disproportionatelyhighratesof:• Violence• Overexertion• Falls,slips,trips


The sheepskin ceiling:Top-paying jobs segregated by degree, race, and sex

Source:U.S.CensusBureau(AmericanCommunitySurvey):2013-2017average.

Top10%ofhealthcareworkers

earn>$100,000peryear

Bottom90%ofhealthcareworkers


13%

%thathaveadvanceddegrees(aboveBA)

%thatareBlack/African-American

%thatarefemale

25%

85%

81%

10%

46%

Doctors don’t live forever:Increasing numbers are approaching retirement age

Source:NorthCarolinaHealthProfessionsDataSystem,UNC-ChapelHill

7%

12%

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

%ofphysiciansage65+


Peering into thecrystal ball

18HealthcarejobsinNorthCarolina

More jobs on the way:Healthcare is projected to grow rapidly in coming years

Source:LEADEmploymentProjections

+ 8%

+ 15%

+ 19%

2017 2026[projected]

HealthcarePractitionersandTechnicalOccupations

HealthcareSupportOccupations

Total(alloccupations)


Robots need not apply:Healthcare jobs have much lower risk of automation

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics(OccupationalEmploymentStatistics),withcomputerizationriskestimatedbyFrey,CarlBenedikt,andMichaelA.Osborne."Thefutureofemployment:Howsusceptiblearejobstocomputerisation?."Technologicalforecastingandsocialchange114(2017):254-280.

6%

51%

Healthcareoccupations Otheroccupations

%ofjobsathighriskofcomputerization(perFrey/Osborne)


A bend in the age curve:Population will get older… but for how long?

Source:2010-2036populationestimates/projectionsfromNCOfficeofStateManagementandBudget.Fittedcurverepresentsahypotheticalscenario.

13%

21%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

%ofpopulationage65+

Officialestimate/projection

Fittedcurve(hypothetical)


Conclusion


Healthcare Jobs in North Carolina

Jobopportunities:• Rapidjobgrowthinpastdecades(andforeseeablefuture)• Strongdemandforworkersinallregionsandeducationlevels

Workforcechallenges:• Relativelyfewhealthcarestudents/traineesinthe“pipeline”• Hardtoattract/retainworkers(jobconditions,segregation,aging)

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Featured LEAD data sources:LaborSupply/DemandAnalyzer:jobseekers,jobopenings,labormarkettightnesshttps://nccareers.org/s-d/

Employmentdata byindustry,occupation,andregion,estimatedinpartnershipwiththeU.S.BureauofLaborStatisticshttps://d4.nccommerce.com/

Employmentprojectionsbyindustry,occupation,andregion,developedinpartnershipwiththeU.S.EmploymentandTrainingAdministrationhttps://nccareers.org/employmentprojections/industry_employment_projections.html

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Thankyou!AndrewBerger-GrossSeniorEconomist

[email protected]

www.nccommerce.com/lead

FollowusonTwitter@LeadNC

https://twitter.com/LeadNC

FollowourlatestresearchonourblogTheLEADFeed

https://www.nccommerce.com/news/the-lead-feed

healthcare jobs in north carolina - auber · 2019. 11. 4. · healthcare jobs in north carolina: a...

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