”health of nations”: civilization differences and human development in post-socialist countries...
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”Health of Nations”: Civilization Differences and Human Development in Post-Socialist Countries
Anna KrasilovaGordey YastrebovOvsey Shkaratan
National Research University – Higher School of Economics
MoscowRussia
Goals of development: a shift in paradigms• Economocentrism and economic determinism
▫ GDP per cap., economic growth, etc.▫ economic ‘variables’ as major determinants and
attributes of development
• Modernization theory (Rostow, Parsons, etc.)▫ Market economy, private ownership and democracy
as basic foundations of capitalism▫ Universalist ideologies of catch-up development
• Sustainable development theories▫ UNDP ideology, Human Development Index▫ Gross National Happiness, Happy Life-Expectancy
(Veenhoven), etc.
• Civilization theories (Toynbee, Spengler, Huntington, Danilevskiy, etc.)
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Basic aspects of human development
SUSTAINABILITY – a society’s capacity for 1) demographic reproduction and 2) resisting the potentially harmful physical, social and mental pathologies
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Quality of human development: measurement indicators•Physical
▫life expectancy▫diseases prevalence (cancer, diabetes etc.)
•Social▫trust▫crime rates▫suicide rate etc.
•Mental▫lifelong learning▫addictions etc.
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Empirics
•31 countries: Europe and CIS
•Data sources: World Bank, UNODC, WHO, ESS, Eurostat (2008)
•24 indicators on physical, social and mental aspects of human development
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Results (1): group means
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Results (1): interpretation
general pattern of switching priorities in development:
social physical mental
3 groups of countries with different highlights in development (mental for the most advanced and physical for the most underdeveloped)
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1,200,900,600,300,00-0,30-0,60
Natural Population Growth 2005-2010 (UNDP Statistics)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Societal H
ealth In
dex
(Human
Dev
elopmen
t)
Turkey
Ukraine
Russia
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Poland
LithuaniaLatvia
HungaryEstonia
Czech RepublicBulgaria
Portugal
ItalyGreece
Croatia
Switzerland
NetherlandsGermany
FranceAustria
SwedenNorway
Denmark
Islamic World
CIS
Post-Socialist
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern EuropeCountry group
Results (2):quality & quantity
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100806040200
Societal Health Index (Human Development)
100
80
60
40
20
0
UN H
DI (re
lative
sca
le [0-10
0])
Turkey
Ukraine
Russia
Kazakhstan
Belarus
SloveniaSlovakia
Romania
PolandLithuania
Latvia
HungaryEstonia
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Spain
Portugal
Italy Greece
Croatia
Switzerland
NetherlandsGermanyFranceBelgium
Austria
Sweden
Norway
FinlandDenmark Islamic World
CIS
Post-Socialist
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern EuropeCountry group
Comparison with HDI (integral)‘underperformers’
Russia and Slovakia – apparently ‘overestimated’ according to UN measures
Turkey, Bulgaria, Poland – far more favourable according to our measures
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100806040200
SHI: phisical aspect of human development
100
80
60
40
20
0
UN H
DI (relative scale [0-100])
Turkey
Ukraine Russia
Kazakhstan
Belarus
SloveniaSlovakia
Romania
PolandLithuania
Latvia
HungaryEstonia
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Spain
Portugal
Italy Greece
Croatia
Switzerland
NetherlandsGermany
FranceBelgium
Austria
Sweden
Norway
FinlandDenmark
Islamic World
CIS
Post-Socialist
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern EuropeCountry group
Comparison with HDI (physical)
‘underperformers’
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physical
100806040200
SHI: social aspect of human development
100
80
60
40
20
0
UN H
DI (relative scale [0-100])
Turkey
Ukraine
Russia
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
PolandLithuania
Latvia
Hungary
EstoniaCzech Republic
Bulgaria
Spain
Portugal
Italy Greece
Croatia
Switzerland
NetherlandsGermany
France
Belgium
Austria
Sweden
Norway
FinlandDenmark
Islamic World
CIS
Post-Socialist
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern EuropeCountry group
Comparison with HDI (social)‘underperformers’
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100806040200
SHI: mental aspect of human development
100
80
60
40
20
0
UN H
DI (relative scale [0-100])
Turkey
Ukraine
Russia
Kazakhstan
Belarus
SloveniaSlovakia
Romania
Poland
LithuaniaLatvia
HungaryEstonia
Czech Republic
Bulgaria
Spain
Portugal
ItalyGreece
Croatia
Switzerland
NetherlandsGermany
FranceBelgium
Austria
Sweden
Norway
FinlandDenmarkIslamic World
CIS
Post-Socialist
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern EuropeCountry group
Comparison with HDI (mental)‘underperformers’
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60,050,040,030,020,010,00,0
GDP per capita 2010 (PPP, CIA Factbook, $ thousand)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Societal Health Index (Human D
evelopment)
Turkey
Ukraine
Russia
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Poland
Lithuania
Latvia
HungaryEstoniaCzech Republic
Bulgaria
SpainPortugal
Italy
Greece
Croatia
Switzerland
NetherlandsGermany
France
Belgium
Austria
Sweden NorwayFinland
Denmark
Fit line for Total
Islamic World
CIS
Post-Socialist
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern EuropeCountry group
R Sq Quadratic =0,688
SHI Human Development & GDP
‘underperformers’
Russia – way out where it should be according to its economic development
Poland, Romania, Turkey – most successful cases given their economic well-beinghigh variance among the Western developed countries
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10,09,08,07,06,05,04,03,0
EIU Democracy Index 2010 (Economist Intelligence Unit)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Societal Health Index (Human D
evelopment)
Turkey
Ukraine
Russia
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Poland
Latvia
Hungary
EstoniaCzech RepublicBulgaria
SpainPortugal
ItalyGreece
Croatia
Switzerland
NetherlandsGermany
France
Belgium
Austria
Sweden
NorwayFinland
Denmark
Islamic World
CIS
Post-Socialist
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern EuropeCountry group
SHI Human Development & Democracy
No direct relationship between democracy and human development for the former Soviet republics – Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine (apart from CEEs, such as Latvia, Slovakia, Estonia, Poland, etc.)
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Civilizational approach
15IEA 16th World Congress, July 4-8 2011, Tsinghua University, Beijing
Civilization European Eurasian
property relations private property ‘power-property’
character of economy market exchange distributive
regime democracy authoritarianism
values individualistic collectivism
An extent of realization of a human capacity– or human development level – in different societies, is a function of a conformity degree of a particular configuration (social, economic and political) of a society to its civilization, or cultural basis.
Conclusions• The universal imperative for success in societal development is
human being itself and, particularly, its physical, social and mental well-being
• 3 distinct groups of countries according to their state of
sustainability:▫ high-risk societies (human regress aggravated by systemic
depopulation, i.e. Russia, Ukraine, Belarus)▫ extensively sustainable societies (moderate human development, yet
extended demographic reproduction, i.e. Kazakhstan, Turkey)▫ intensively sustainable societies (high human development, yet stable
demographic reproduction, i.e. Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Netherlands, etc.)
• A certain set of political, economic and social intuitions can either be appropriate (like in most CEE countries) or inappropriate (Russia and CIS) to population’s particular attitudes, values and behavior models, or civilizational belonging. The latter case results in a loss of sustainability and social decay.
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Thank you for your attention!
List of variablesVariable Aspect
of HDYear Data
sourceDisability-adjusted life expectancy, years phys. 2007 WHOTuberculosis, gonococcal infection, viral hepatitis B, HIV incidence, per 100000
phys. 2004-2006 WHO
SDR, cardiovascular diseases, age 0-64, per 100000 phys. 2004-2006 WHO
Diabetes prevalence, % of population phys. 2004-2006 WHO
Cancer incidence women, per 100000 phys. 2008 GLOBOCAN
Intentional homicide, per 100000 soc. 2007-2008 UNODC
Deaths due to work-related accidents, per 100000 soc. 2006-2008 WHO
Persons killed or injured in road traffic accidents, per 100000 soc. 2008 WHOSDR, suicide and self-inflicted injury, all ages, per 100000 soc. 2008 WHOCrude divorce rate soc. 2006-2008 Eurostat
Abortions, per 1000 live births soc. 2008 WHOInterpersonal trust level soc. 2004-2008 ESS
Daily smokers, % of population, age >15 ment. 2001-2008 WHO
Population, age 25-64, participating in education and training, %
ment. 2009 Eurostat
Wikipedia visitors / internet user ment. 2010 WikipediaCannabis, opiates, cocaine, amphetamines prevelance, % of population
ment. 2003-2008 UNODC
Alcohol consumption, litres per person/year and Patterns of drinking score
ment. 2003-2005 WHO
Natural population growth quantity 2005-2010 UNDP
Appendix 1
Data aggregation1. Inverting 2. Normalizing
3. Aggregating
where Xi – i variable, Yj – normalized variable, wj – weight, Am – m aspect of human development, SHI – Societal Health Index
Appendix 2
SHI rating of countries
Country Integral SHI CountryIntegral
SHI1. Sweden 0,00 17. Portugal 38,082. Switzerland 0,77 18. Turkey 43,47
3. Norway 3,83 19.Czech Republic 45,59
4. Finland 5,51 20. Croatia 48,275. Netherlands 14,40 21. Bulgaria 48,456. Germany 16,95 22. Romania 50,177. Greece 17,30 23. Estonia 54,058. Denmark 17,43 24. Slovakia 56,48
9.United Kingdom 24,46 25. Hungary 57,43
10.Poland 25,66 26. Lithuania 62,9611.France 26,84 27. Latvia 64,2212.Italy 29,25 28. Belarus 74,5713.Austria 32,22 29. Ukraine 80,0214.Spain 33,33 30. Kazakhstan 89,5715.Slovenia 34,55 31. Russia 100,0016.Belgium 37,16
Appendix 3.1
SHI components correlation coefficients
Appendix 3.2
Physical
Social Mental Integral
Physical 1 0,776 0,621 0,887
Social 1 0,665 0,908
Mental 1 0,872
Integral 1
SHI Human Development & Corruption
10,08,06,04,02,0
Corruption Perceptions Index 2009 (TransparencyInternational)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Societal H
ealth In
dex
(Human
Dev
elopmen
t)
Turkey
Ukraine
Russia
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Slovenia
Slovakia
Romania
Poland
LithuaniaLatvia
HungaryEstonia
Czech RepublicBulgaria
Spain
Portugal
Italy
Greece
Croatia
Switzerland
Netherlands
GermanyFrance
Belgium
Austria
SwedenNorway
Finland
Denmark
Fit line for Total
Islamic World
CIS
Post-Socialist
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern EuropeCountry group
R Sq Linear = 0,697
Appendix 3