Headquarters U.S. Air ForceScience and Technology for the Human Domainfor the Human Domain

Dr. Mark T. MayburyChi f S i iChief Scientist

Headquarters U.S. Air Force Pentagon, Washington D.C.

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 1

8 February 2011

DoD Roles Demand Human Domain InsightHuman Domain Insight

Center of gravity of irregular conflict is non-combatant populationsnon combatant populations

Building partnership capacity and post-conflict recovery, reconstruction, and transition now key military rolestransition now key military roles

Success in current and future operations depends on understanding

d h i i l d l land shaping social and cultural landscape including patterns of life

Center of Gravity: The Local PopulaceThe Local Populace

“Having focused the overwhelming majority of its collection efforts and analytical brainpower on insurgent groups, the vast

CJ2 ISAF

and analytical brainpower on insurgent groups, the vast intelligence apparatus is unable to answer fundamental questions about the environment in which U.S. and allied forces operate and the people they seek to persuade. Ignorant of local economics and y glandowners, hazy about who the powerbrokers are and how they might be influenced, incurious about the correlations between various development projects and the levels of cooperation among villagers, and disengaged from people in the best position to find answers – whether aid workers or Afghan soldiers – U.S. intelligence officers and analysts can do little but shrug in response to high level decision makers seeking the knowledgeresponse to high level decision-makers seeking the knowledge, analysis, and information they need to wage a successful counterinsurgency.”

Major General Michael T Flynn Captain Matt Pottinger and Paul D Batchelor Jan 2010Major General Michael T. Flynn, Captain Matt Pottinger, and Paul D. Batchelor, Jan 2010. Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan.

3

HSCB Modeling Program Supports Administration GoalsAdministration Goals

Achieving “prosperity and freedom” around the world requires sound policy decisions and operations planning that support economic development and democratization which require state of the artdevelopment and democratization which require state of the art models of human, social, and behavioral factors.

Achieving “peace and dignity” requires addressing the challenges such as corruption, violent extremism, and “the nuclear threat” which requires the comprehensive focus on training, operations planning, influence analysis, and experimentation across the spectrum of basic research to fielded solutions. A hi i “ t ti d d t di b t Achieving a “greater cooperation and understanding between nations” is supported by the cross cultural modeling, training, and operations.

The Administration’s aim to “roll back the specter of a warming The Administration s aim to roll back the specter of a warming planet” can be supported by hybrid models developed in the program which could lead to more sophisticated models of human behavior (economic, social, behavioral) which could be leveraged with physical terrain and weather models to yield more sophisticated global warming models.

4

National Security Alignment HSCB Modeling Program aligns with priorities to address

emerging challenges in key NSS, QDR, and QDDR areas:C t f St t i C t t i C i ti Center for Strategic Counterterrorism Communications

Succeed in counterinsurgency, stability, and counterterrorism operations Increase counterinsurgency, stability operations, and

counterterrorism competency and capacity in general purpose forces;

Increase regional expertise for Afghanistan and Pakistan; andc ease eg o a e pe t se o g a sta a d a sta ; a d Strengthen key supporting capabilities for strategic communication.

Build the security capacity of partner states Enhance linguistic, regional, and cultural ability;Enhance linguistic, regional, and cultural ability;

National Security Strategy (NSS) Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review (QDDR)

HSCB Modeling Program Supports Joint Needspp

Army Human Terrain System

Navy Expeditionary Combat Command S&T Strategic Plan Multi-lingual and multi-dialect, real-time two way audio/reader translator Civil Information Management for Civil Military Operations for

Maritime Civil Affairs and Security Training (MCAST) Command Cultural and Language Proficiency Tools Cultural and Language Proficiency Tools Influence and Effects Measurement Tools Data collection in existing and emergent operational environments that

captures the operationally relevant socio-cultural information by non-subject matter experts

Naval Irregular Warfare Office R&D Non lethal warn, deter, active denial Expose enemy networks, anticipate and influence behavior Enhance cultural and human terrain capabilities (methods to better

understand partner perspectives and forge trust-based relationships)

M i C Vi i & St t 2025 Marine Corps Vision & Strategy 2025 Posture for Hybrid Threats in Complex Environment Lead Joint/Multinational Operations 6

USAF Language and Culture Skills“Cultural understanding is extremely important to our ability to affect positive outcomes. As we pursue our national interests in an interconnected, globalized world, we must be

Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz

Building partnerships and partner capacity

cognizant not only of socio-economic and political institutions; we must genuinely and increasingly appreciate linguistic, regional, and cultural constructs.” – Gen Schwartz

Building partnerships and partner capacity designated an AF Service Core Function “Central to building partnerships and capacities is our ability to

appreciate nfamiliar c lt res and to comm nicate and relate ith

DoD Language and Culture Summit Jan. 26, 2011, Alexandria, VA

appreciate unfamiliar cultures, and to communicate and relate with an ever-growing number of international partners.”

Budgetary pressures drive further need for collaboration

Language-Enabled Airman Program (LEAP) attracts, recruits, develops 460 linguistically capable, regionally savvy Airmen

Regional Affairs Strategists (RAS): +54 in 2010 (to 195); +80 in training Regional Affairs Strategists (RAS): +54 in 2010 (to 195); +80 in training

AF proud of cultural modeling (e.g., NOEM) in support of OSD7Source: http://www.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-110126-045.pdf

A Wicked Problem

nmen

t

PluralisticLittle or no agreement as to common goals and

Fluid, Evolving, Contested

king

Envir

oncommon goals and objectives; decision makers focus on local concerns

Static,ecisi

on M

ak

Unitary

Agreement as to the goals and objectives; decisions are made and implemented WRT Static,

UncontestedDeUnitarymade and implemented WRT common goals

System BehaviorLinear Complex

SocialInformation Cognitive

Not all behavior directly observable; not all interactions are well understood

Do not necessarily follow predictable l f b h i l ti t ifi

Behavior is regular, well understood and, to a large extent, predictable

Social Systems

Information Systems

Cognitive Systems rules of behavior; solutions to specific

problems may have totally unexpected consequences

Interact with environment and evolve

Relatively closed to the environment

Components not purposeful; exist only as part of larger system

8

Multiple stakeholders, Increasing complexity, Greater uncertainty

The Human Dimension

“We can’t kill our way to victory”Secretary of Defense Robert Gates 2008–Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, 2008

Art. 68. “Modern wars are not internecine wars, in which the killing of the enemy is the object”the enemy is the object

– President Abraham Lincoln, 1863

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

9

– Sun Tzu

Long-Term Vision Soldier as cultural chameleon,

Actionable estimation of 2nd and 3rd order effects across the PMESII spectrum

Reliable forecasting of regional stability on a short time scalestability on a short time scale

Routine exploitation of social media for intelligence, understanding and

t t i i i f h i dengagement, training, info sharing and collaboration

Ability to track and shape viral communicationacross distributed dynamic social networks

Data, technologies, and methods support a timely, relevant Data to Decisions processtimely, relevant Data to Decisions process

High fidelity “social radar”PMESII = Political, Military, Economic, Social,

Infrastructure and Information systems

“Social Radar”Sonar Radar

Infrared

Social RadarHumanitarian Relief

ons

Strategic Communication Counter Insurgency

HealthPolitical EconomicReligiousMilitary

60

70

80

90

ency

800

1000

1200

1400Aum ShinrykioMis

sio

T iCollaborative Analysis/Assessment

0

10

20

30

40

50

SupremeInitiation

(1988)

Reality of theUniverse

(1991)

DeclaringMyself Christ

(1992)

Salvation ofTrue Victors

(1992)

Teachings ofthe Truth

(1992)

Beyond Lifeand Death

(1993)

BodhisattvaSuttra (1994)

DisasterApproaches

(1995)

Wor

d Fr

equ

0

200

400

600

800

ANGER FUTURE

thod

s

E S ti t A l i

… … …

Words GroupsTopics

Tools

y

Met E. Sentiment Analysis

F. SummarizationG. ModelingH. Geotemporal Visualization

A. Sampling/CalibrationB. Topic Detect/TrackC. Author AttributionD. Conversation Analysis

ces

GeographyDemographyEconometrics

Newspapers, Radio, TV

Sour

c

SurveillancePolls

Social Radar: Indicators, Signatures and SourcesIndicators, Signatures and Sources

Military& Law

Political Economic Social Health Environment

Indicators Violent/Border C fli t

Quality of governance

GDP Displacement Medical Access Water/Air/Soil pollution

ConflictCriminal Activity

Corruption Employment, Poverty

Education Quality Medical Outcomes

Climate

Human rights Balance of powers

Infrastructure Hunger, Dissatisfaction

Mortality/Disability

Natural disaster

Signatures Violent incidents

Electoral fraud Currency stability

% homeless, % refugees

Care Access, % Insured

CO2, Smog, water quality

Public safety Trafficking, laundering

Consumer prices

% Graduates, Literacy rates

Absenteeism Temperature, precipitation

Grievances Public Trust, Free media

Land Rights grievances

Grievances AIDS, Birth/Mortality rates

Emergency Preparedness

Sources UN reports UN reports World Bank UN, NGOs UN, NGOs satellitesSourcesPolls World Bank,

Human RightsWatch

SARs, DEA Reports

Newswire World Health Organization

World Health Organization

Newswire Pew/Gallup Bloomberg Social Media ProMED Environmental NGOs

Maybury, M. 2010. Social Radar. First International Conference on Applied Human Factors and Ergonomics (AHFE) and Cross-Cultural Decision Making, 17-20 July, Intercontinental, Miami, FL

Notional “Social Radar” Desktop

Distribution of articles by topic Topic

coverage gover time

Highlighted sentiment-bearing phrases in a document

“Heat Map” of sentiment relative to documentrelative to targets

Technologies, Methods, Models, and Tools in the Social Cultural DomainTools in the Social Cultural Domain

Data & Theory Building

Model & Software Development

Model Building Resources & V&V

Integration & Systems Development

Training & Mission Rehearsal

Operational Use & Transition

Socio-Cultural Modeling of Effective Influence (AFRL) Cascading Effects Modeling (AFRL)

S

AFRL: AIR FORCE RESEARCH LAB; ARI: ARMY RESEARCH INSTITUTE; COCOMS: US COMBATANT

Collective Behavior and Socio-Cultural Modeling (AFRL) Predicting Adversary Behavior (AFRL) HSCB Basic and Applied Research (ARI) Effects Measurement and Geospatial Services (USACE) Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (USMC) Program Manager Training Systems (USMC)Affordable Human Behavior Modeling (ONR)

ARM

ED S

ERVI

CES COMMANDS; DARPA:

DEFENSE ADVANCED RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY; DIA: DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY; DTRA:

Affordable Human Behavior Modeling (ONR)ONR HSCB Science (ONR) Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (DDR&E) Joint Capability Technology Demonstration (DDR&E) Strategic Multilayer Analysis (DDR&E) Minerva Research Initiative (OSD) Social Science Research & Analysis (USDI)D

DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY; IARPA: INTELLIGENCE ADVANCE RESEARCH PROJECTS AGENCY; JIEDDO: JOINT

Social Science Research & Analysis (USDI)Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (OSD) Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (DARPA) Applications of Social Computing (DARPA) Strategic Communication Assessment & Analysis (DARPA) Conflict Modeling, Planning & Outcomes Experimentation (DARPA) Socio-Cultural Dynamics Initiative (DIA)

OSD IMPROVISED

EXPLOSIVE DEVICES DEFEAT ORGANIZATION; NSF: NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION; ONR: OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH Socio Cultural Dynamics Initiative (DIA)

Behavioral/Social Sciences Research Program (DIA) Social-Science Research for Anticipation & Reduction of WMD (DTRA) ATHENA (TRISA) Human Terrain System (TRADOC) Social Dynamics Awareness (JIEDDO) Socio-Cultural Behavior R&D (COCOMs)

OTH

ER

DoD

RESEARCH; TRADOC: TRAINING AND DOCTRINE COMMAND; TRISA: TRADOC INTELLIGENCE SUPPORT ACTIVITY; USACE: ARMY CORPS OF

( )Social/Behavioral Dimensions of Security, Conflict, Cooperation (NSF) Socio-Cultural Content in Language (IARPA) Reynard (IARPA)

OTH

ER

CORPS OF ENGINEERS; USDI: UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR INTELLIGENCE

Sample Tools and Methods

Peace Support Operations Model (PSOM)

Interagency Conflict Assessment Interagency Conflict Assessment Framework (ICAF)

SenturionSe tu o

National Operational Environment Model (NOEM)

Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS)

MAP-HT Joint Capability Technology Demonstration

Measuring Progress in Conflict Measuring Progress in Conflict Environments (MPICE)

Sample HSCB Program Efforts

Modeling Outcomes of Coordinated USG and NGO Efforts (eCross Culture)Efforts (eCross Culture)

Semantic Wiki for Complex Ops (Milcord)

Ethnic Conflict Repression Insurgency Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency and Social Strife Model (NSI, Inc)

Simulation of Opium Economies (Los Alamos)p ( )

Modeling Strategic Contexts (Univ Chicago)

The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) Ad Hoc Study Group( ) y p

Survey of national Comprehensive Approach (CA) development and associated S&T programs Baseline Collection Instrument - AUS, CAN, UK, US (& NATO)

National Understanding of CA; Experience in implementation of a CA;

A t d t ithi th t t f th CA Assessment and measurement within the context of the CA; Ongoing S&T programs and tools to support, enable or evaluate a CA; Projected Scientific and Technical Activities supporting the CA; and, Evaluation of potential S&T areas or activities which might enable the CA Evaluation of potential S&T areas or activities which might enable the CA.

TTCP S&T Program review Relevance assessment of existing TTCP activities

Assessment of S&T areas (thrusts) to support a CA

Analysis supported by National workshops, subject matter experts, AHSG meetings / j g

teleconferences, literature search, interviews, etc.

Science & Technology Areas of Opportunity Areas of Opportunity

Multi-agency modeling, simulation, and experimentation to develop a CA operational concept (e.g. MNE 4, 5, 6)

Tools, methods and techniques to support force synchronization

Models and other tools for determining optimal multi-agency capabilities (e.g. PSOM)p ( g )

Development of organizational cultures and individual KSAs that support a CA to operations

Analytical methods models and simulations that support analysis of Analytical methods, models, and simulations that support analysis of emergent and directed behaviour in CA networks

Development of MOEs, and tools for assessing outcomes

Methods to integrate and make sense of non-traditional data, and generally build domain intelligence to support a CA

Decision support/COA analysis tools that leverage validated, social science-based models of socio-cultural behavior in regions of interest

PSOM = Peace Support Operations Model MNE = Multinational ExperimentsKSA = Knowledge, Skill, and Ability MOE = Measures of Effectiveness COA = Course of Action

Persistent Modeling Challenges A more complete basic research foundation grounded in

inter-disciplinary social science H b id d l i t ti diff t d li Hybrid models integrating different modelingapproaches, theories and granularity

Transparency in models and tools Adapting “classic” V&V for appropriate Adapting classic V&V for appropriate

application to socio-cultural behavior models Interfaces enabling use of models across

military domains, environments, echelon levelsy , , Processes, procedures and training to ensure appropriate use

of models in support of “robust” decision making Policies, procedures, information systems, and requisite

training to sustain HSCB modeling usage Methods for valid collection of quality socio-cultural data and

systems in which that data can be readily accessed for use in computational modelingcomputational modeling

Working with the warfighterprovides clarity and specificity to these challenges

Some Air Force Contributions

Metropolitan Area Persistent Sensing

Multi-INT Collection

Multi-scale modeling and analysis Project Liberty MC-12 (IMINT, SIGINT)

Very high precision, micro munitions that limit collateral damage

Non lethal directed energy weapons

Airborne Laser

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmuyLIrSjxIhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CpjxjLRKqw8&feature=related

Active Denial System

Airborne Laser

AFRL Social-Cultural (SC) Modeling Trendsg

lexi

ty/

tiativ

e

ys C

ompl

Mix

ed In

it

Higher res cultural modelsSC Integrated Model-based

Relative

Absolute

Mod

el S

yD

egre

e M

Fill Science, Data GapsT il d li ti f

analysis & planning tool development

Applied Research:

Absolute

M D

Performance models

Tailored application of models, methods:- COA Analysis- PSYOP Planning

Di A l i

- Precision Influence Analysis and Tactics- Anticipatory ISR

1980 2010 20201990 2000

Performance modelsLow-res cultural models

- Discourse Analysis

Adaptive Control of Thought—Rational (ACT-R)State, Operator And Result (SOAR)

The National Operational Environment Model (NOEM)Environment Model (NOEM)

Web-based M&S environment to: Forecast regional/national

The NOEM Model

Forecast regional/national instability

Identify “leverage” points & their relative sensitivities to stabilize a region or nation

Forecast of potential ramifications of Blue action(s) (include unintended consequences in shortunintended consequences in short & long term) on adversary and environment (local populace)

Explore Epstein’s model based on Collier and Hoeffler (2002) concept of greed and grievance

POC: Mr Brian Romano Dr John Salerno AFRL/RIEF

23

POC: Mr Brian Romano, Dr. John Salerno, AFRL/RIEFCOMMANDS SUPPORTED: USSTRATCOM, AFRICOM, ACCPARTNERS: AFRL/RH, AFOSR, ITT, CUBRC, EBR, JHU, U Alabama, U Buffalo, RIT, Patch Plus Consultants, UC Berkeley,

Micro Munition Vision

• Biologically-inspired Powered

• Adaptable Kinetic Effects• Extremely Agile Urban Maneuver

Effects aiming and vertical

Biologically inspired Powered Micro Munition Airframes

• Autonomous coop. attack• Difficult target access• Airspace deconfliction &

t t l i

• Focused kinetic effects for high lethality/low collateral damage

• Agile Maneuver for minimal time

• Effects aiming and vertical attack for element of surprise/minimal TOF for TST

• Adverse Weather Seeker•Operating in the Loop Munitions

target exclusion zone compliance/trust

• Selectable effects (single covert attack ->synchronized swarm attack)• Agile Maneuver for minimal time

of flight (TOF) for fleeting/fleeing Time Sensitive Targets (TST)

• Adverse Weather Seeker

gControl

• Target(s) identification and munition(s) assignment

• Target exclusion zone identification for CAS

)• Micro Modular Mission

Payloads • Micro kinetic effects, e.g.,

adversary/electronics defeat• Non kinetic effects for cyber

24Cleared for Public Release:

96ABW-2009-0425Rapidly Deliver Scalable Kinetic Effects to Difficult Targets

• Independently Targeted Munitions for selectable effects

identification for CAS• Automated airspace

deconfliction

• Non-kinetic effects for cyber and CBRN disruption/defeat

• Ambient Energy Harvest

Active DenialJoint Non-Lethal Weapons + AFRLp

Description An extended range non-lethal weapon that uses Directed Energy (DE), not projectiles

System 1

( ), ot p oject es

Effect is produced by a 95GHz radio frequency in a highly directional beam that penetrates 1/64th inch deep of the skin surface of the target

System 2

Platform (System 2) operated by single operator and supervisor with joystick control, bore-sighted day/night cameras, FLIR, through site video, and commander’s station w/ wide view camera

Capabilities Key PointsCapabilities Assists in preventing civilian casualties by providing a non-lethal capability with significant stand off range

Deny access of target areas from ranges up to and beyond small arms range

Key Points Policy, Legal and Arms Control Compliance Reviews are complete and system is approved for use

Strategic Communication plan is complete and ready for implementation beyond small arms range

Assists in determining intent in Escalation-of-Force scenarios by forcibility dissuading targets from moving towards friendly positions

Human effects very well understood after years of study and over 11,000 engagements

Interoperable with currently fielded communications systems, jammers and counter IED devices. 

25

System 2 (shown above) is mounted on Heavy Expanded Mobility Tactical Truck (HEMTT) with current counter IED and communications systems. Operator station and key system components armor protected against small arms

Meets commander’s intents in reducing civilian casualties and providing escalation of force options

www.kirtland.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070404-026.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmuyLIrSjxI

Conclusion

War fighters require human domain insight

Require rich data and valid but intuitive models and decision aids

Service unique contributions can advance progress in current joint human terrain engagements e g metropolitan area multi-joint human terrain engagements, e.g., metropolitan area, multi-INT persistent sensing, multi-scale modeling and analysis, high precision, micro munitions, non lethal directed energy weapons

M ltili l lti d l i f ti t ti f Multilingual, multimodal information extraction from heterogeneous sources promises new opportunities for data collection, model validation, and COA assessment

Development of “social radar” that exploit sentiment analysis and human terrain visualization can provide integrating metaphor for enhanced SA and decision support

26