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INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH

HDFC sec Investor Forum

Consumer and Media: Key takeaways

27 Dec 2018

CONSUMER CORPORATES MCap (Rs bn)

APPLIANCES

Havells India 423

Voltas 182

Crompton Consumer 142

V-Guard Industries 96

Symphony Ltd 75

Blue Star 60

HOTELS AND ALCO-BEV

Lemon Tree Hotels 54

Radico Khaitan 53

Mahindra Holidays 26

MEDIA

Zee Entertainment 435

Dish TV 69

Music Broadcast Ltd. 17

EXPERTS

EESL

Hotelivate – Consultant

Naveen Trivedi (FMCG, Appliances) [email protected],+91-22-6171 7324

Siddhant Chhabria (FMCG, Appliances) [email protected],+91-22-6171 7336

Himanshu Shah (Alco-Bev, Hotels, Media) [email protected], +91-22-6171 7315

Mansi Lall (Alco-Bev, Hotels, Media) [email protected], +91-22-3021 2070

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HDFC sec Consumer and Media Investor Forum: Key takeaways

Consumer and Media

We hosted a ‘Consumer & Media’ Investor Forum in Mumbai which was participated by 14 corporates. The theme was around companies benefiting from acceleration in consumer discretionary spend. We believe as India steps into a high-growth phase, consumer discretionary spending is set to grow with a higher-than-normal multiplier effect (1.5-3x GDP growth vs. 1-1.5x of GDP rate in slower growth periods). Along with macro tailwinds, companies' own strategic initiatives will contribute immensely. We are bullish on the Appliances space, given low category penetration, aspirational consumers, consumer financing, government’s electrification drive and rising disposable incomes.

Challenging FY19 for cooling products (Rs 300bn mkt): Revival in cooling products will be visible from 4Q onwards since cos are focusing on liquidating channel inventory. RAC market to post flat/5% vol./value growth in FY19 (as per Blue Star). Despite weak FY19 show, our bullish thesis on RAC has not changed. We expect the category to post >15% vol growth in FY20, resulting in mean reversion towards its long term 10% vol growth (CAGR basis). Fans continue to benefit from premiumisation (only 10% mix) and shortening of the replacement cycle, as consumers aspire to upgrade. Branded air coolers are expected to gain share (27% vol. in 9mn market) from the unorganised market. Healthy off-season demand from Symphony’s distributors (despite two consecutive weak seasons) reflects the faith in the prospects of air coolers.

Green shoots visible for building electricals (Rs 240bn mkt): Demand for Cables & Wires (C&W) and Switchgears has been healthy despite slowdown in real estate. The growth is driven by acceleration in project completion (post RERA implementation) and demand from independent houses (tier 3 and 4 cities). Installation of more appliances within a household is driving the

need for Switchgears and C&W that support higher energy load.

Small electrical appliances (Rs 100bn mkt) provides avenue for growth: Leading FMEG cos have recently entered in the small electrical appliances space (Mixer Grinder, Water Heaters, Water Purifier and Personal grooming) with premium products by leveraging their brand and distribution strength. These categories have become attractive owing to the electrification drive and recent GST rate cut (28% to 18%) in July-18. As consumers opt for better aesthetics, service, safety and security, market share is migrating from unorganized to organized.

Competitive intensity is rising in lighting (Rs 65bn mkt): The category is witnessing stiffer competition with the entry of newer players (Jaguar and Indiabulls) and aggressive pricing by Syska (to arrest market share declines). In 1HFY19, price cuts in LED were faster than cost declines, resulting in margin contraction. However, prices have recovered by 2-4% (led by Philips) in 3Q owing to sharp INR depreciation. LED volume continues to be robust at ~20%. Growth. Cos are looking to differentiate with premium products and improving manufacturing efficiency (sourcing and assembly).

Our Top Picks in Appliances : Voltas, Symphony and Crompton

Hotels: Valuation of hotel sector (>20x EV/EBITDA) is not cheap. But the sector has potential to transform itself from a cyclical to a structural play with increasing domestic travel demand, changing mix of customers and lower room penetration.

Media: With limited avenues of entertainment, risk of disruption from digital seems overplayed. In the short term, the TRAI tariff order is likely to benefit uplift industry ARPU.

Our Top Picks in Hotels and Media: Indian Hotels, Zee and Dish.

GDP multiplier to accelerate discretionary spend

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Havells India

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

(CMP Rs 677 MCap Rs 423bn, TP Rs 719, NEUTRAL)

Havells India (Havells) was represented by Manish Kaushik (GM-Finance and Head IR) and Prashant Saraswat (Sr. Manager IR and M&A) at our Investor Forum. Key takeaways are as follows:

Gradual recovery in Switchgears and Cables & Wires: Switchgears, Switches and C&W delivered robust growth in the last 4 qtrs (post GST) owing to favorable base and acceleration in project completion (post RERA implementation). However the co. stated that real estate outlook remains challenged but independent houses (tier 3 and 4 cities) are driving growth. Installation of more appliances within a household requires consumers to upgrade to switchgears and C&W that support higher energy load. The co. expects 8-12% revenue growth from Switchgears and C&W over FY18-21E.

ECD segment benefiting from brand building: The co. stated that the ECD segment is benefiting from investments (marketing, distribution and personnel) made 2 years back. Fans (65-70% ECD rev mix) has been growing at a stellar pace (>20% in FY18), replacement demand is coming for premium segment. The inclination of owning premium fans have led to shortening of the replacement cycle in fans. Water heaters and personal grooming have been outperforming ECD growth. The co. is also bullish on water purifiers (differentiating with digital range) and is targeting 10% market share (Rs 60bn category; Eureka Forbes and Kent have combined 80% share) over the next 5 years. The co. expects to maintain ECD revenue growth of 15-20% with contribution margin of 25-27% over FY18-21E.

Lighting: The co. did not react to price cuts (owing to newer entrants) by industry and hence maintained margins in 1HFY19. Prices have recovered marginally owing to rupee depreciation.

Shaping Lloyd for the future: To drive the next leg of growth, Havells is ramping up Lloyd’s in-house manufacturing and focusing on brand investments. New AC plant will begin in Mar-19 with 0.6mn units capacity (vs. 0.8mn volume sales in FY18) and will be ramped up to 1mn units in the next 2 years. The co. will not manufacture window ACs (10% mix). In-house manufacturing will not only mitigate currency movements but will also give more hold on innovation (Havells forte).

Our View: We are optimistic about Havells business growth. C&W and Switchgears growth is currently driven by govt. infra spend, future outlook looks bright with private capex cycle expected to turn. The co. is aggressive in utilizing its strong brand recall of ‘Havells’ into adjacent FMEG categories. Muted growth in FY19 for the RAC industry has impacted Lloyd performance but FY20 and beyond looks promising considering its presence in under-penetrated categories.

Valuation: We value Havells at 36x P/E on Dec-20EPS (Sep-20 earlier), with TP of Rs 719 (Rs 693 earlier). With limited upside, we downgrade our rating to NEUTRAL from BUY.

YE March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net Sales 61,353 81,386 99,875 114,257 131,345

EBITDA 8,241 10,493 13,080 15,760 18,440

APAT 5,967 7,036 8,944 10,938 13,004

Diluted EPS (Rs) 9.5 11.3 14.3 17.5 20.8

P/E (x) 73.8 62.6 49.3 40.3 33.9

EV / EBITDA (x) 51.1 40.6 32.3 26.3 22.0

Core RoCE (%) 35.5 33.9 33.2 38.3 45.6

Recovery priced-in

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Voltas


(CMP Rs 550, MCap Rs 189bn, TP Rs 645, BUY)

Voltas was represented by Utsav Shah (Head Finance Corporate) and Asawari Sathaye (Corp Communications & IR) at our Investor Forum. Key takeaways are as follows: Focus on normalising channel inventory: Voltas is focusing on

normalising channel inventory for air conditioners. RAC inventory is at ~2 months, higher than normal. UCP performance will be sluggish in 3Q owing to channel inventory levels, along with a heavy base of pre-buying (revision in energy rating) benefits in 3QFY18. Seasonal benefits at primarily level will start from Feb-Mar onwards. Co. is optimistic on summer 2019 (never seen 2 consecutive weak summer in RAC). EBIT margin will remain weak in 3QFY19 (11-12% EBIT margin for FY19).

In-house manufacturing to rise: Voltas plans to increase its in-house manufacturing and is in process of procuring moulds for IDUs (Indoor Units) – IDU’s are primarily imported. In the recent years, competitive intensity has risen in the RAC industry, therefore strength of manufacturing will give long term competitive edge. Mgt. believes that fixed speed ACs will continue to be relevant considering next leg of demand will be from Tier-2/3/4 cities. Voltas’ window AC mix is at ~24% vs. Split at 76% (40% inverter and 60% fixed speed).

Voltas-Beko - Still early days: The launch did not see festive season benefits owing to relatively late launch (large format retailers typically reserve shelf space prior to festive season). Plant will be commissioned by Dec-19 and priorities will be direct cool refrigerator (predominant in India) and front load washing machine (not manu. by OEMs). Co. eyes meaningful traction in the next year’s festive season. JV will be EBIT positive in the next 3 years.

EMPS – strong execution: Growth trajectory is healthy, with acceleration in completion on rural electrification (1/3rd book) and

Qatar projects. The co. enjoyed currency depreciation in 1HFY19 resulting in sharp margin expansion. Total order book is at Rs 45bn (domestic/international Rs 25/20bn). Voltas guides for 7% sustainable EBIT margins.

Our view: Voltas has consistently gained market share over the last 5 years in the RAC market (200bps in the last 2 years alone) to cement its persistent leadership status. India’s Room AC penetration is low at ~5%, presenting a multi-year growth opportunity. Although the RAC market is getting competitive, Voltas’ key competitive advantage is its distribution network (15,000 touch points, largest in the RAC industry), coupled with a wide product range at attractive price points. Despite a sluggish performance in the summer 2018, we maintain that the RAC market will sustain its secular long-term growth (i.e. ~10% volume CAGR). The JV with Arcelik and the launch of the Voltas-Beko brand in under-penetrated categories, provides multi-year growth visibility for the company.

Valuation: We cut our EPS estimates by 2% for FY19/20/21E each to factor in weaker than expected primary growth. We value based on SOTP, valuing EMPS/EPS/UCP at Dec-20 P/E at 17/20/35x with TP of Rs 645 (Rs 640 earlier).


Net Sales 60,328 64,044 75,192 86,678 100,220

EBITDA 5,791 6,626 7,220 7,992 9,449

APAT 5,082 5,724 6,059 6,866 8,241

Diluted EPS (Rs) 15.4 17.3 18.3 20.8 24.9

P/E (x) 37.7 32.9 31.1 27.5 22.9

EV / EBITDA (x) 29.0 24.7 21.8 19.6 16.4

Core RoCE (%) 39.7 43.7 43.2 42.8 45.7

Sailing steady in a tough year


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Crompton Consumer was represented by Yeshwant Rege (VP-Strategy & Financial Planning) at our Investor Forum. Key takeaways are as follows: Premiumisation in fans driving growth: Premium and new

launches continue to drive growth in fans. Anti-dust is now clocking Rs 2.5bn annually. The co. is aggressive in the ‘mass-premium’ (60% mix vs. 50% industry mix) and ‘premium’ (20% mix vs. 10% industry mix) segment with new product launches (Senorita, Splitz) in the range of Rs 2,000-2,500 have received positive response.

Pumps – fixed product gaps: Crest mini was launched recently to compete in the value segment, it is driving robust volume growth in pumps (25% in 2QFY19). Agri. pumps (~20% mix; grew 60% in 2QFY19) has been Crompton’s focus area in the last 1-2 years. This segment is now starting to deliver growth faster than competition owing to deeper distribution network and fixing product gaps.

Appliances: In geysers, the co. has revamped its entire range with new launches (Gemma, Solarium Neo etc) to fix gaps (5 star range) and improve aesthetics (was outdated). Growth will be strong in this season owing to channel filling.

Lighting – recovery in margins expected: LED (82% revenue mix) volume growth continues to be robust (20-30%), however overall lighting value growth is muted owing to LED price erosion (~10%), decline in CFL (18% revenue mix) and no orders from EESL. Price erosion earlier was in-line with cost reduction but now with the entry of newer players (Jaguar and Indiabulls) and sharp price cuts by Syska (to arrest market share decline), Crompton’s margins were under pressure in 1HFY19. The co. guides to recover margins (400-500bps) in 2HFY19 driven by (a) Higher in-house manufacturing mix, (b) Direct sourcing of parts, (c) Optimizing

design and (d) Launching premium products (5 star LED at 25% premium to entry level bulbs)

Our View: Crompton is arguably India’s strongest ‘mass premium’ brand in the Consumer Electricals space. Crompton’s strategy for fans is (1) Innovation led growth (eg. Anti-dust fan and Air-360), (2) Go-to-market strategy to drive distribution and (3) Premiumisation in fans (>20% in fans vs. 7% in FY15). Crompton with its “Go to Market” strategy has been improvising its distribution network which led to a disruption in trade in FY18. Benefits of this drive are now reflecting in ECD's performance, With recent margin pressure in lighting, Crompton plans to recover margins in 2HFY19 with cost savings program. We believe this is a critical change in strategy for Crompton to compete with incumbents. GST rate revision (Nov'17) is favourable for the company as 46% of its revenues will be positively impacted.

Valuation: We model 19% EPS CAGR over FY18-21E. We value at 35x Dec-20 (Sep-20 earlier) EPS, our TP is at Rs 295. We reiterate BUY.

Crompton Consumer




Net Sales 39,009 40,797 45,476 51,261 58,107

EBITDA 4,846 5,310 6,036 7,191 8,354

APAT 2,849 3,238 3,855 4,777 5,706

Diluted EPS (Rs) 4.5 5.2 6.0 7.4 8.9

P/E (x) 49.6 43.6 37.6 30.4 25.4

EV / EBITDA (x) 29.7 26.8 23.8 19.5 16.3

Core RoCE (%) 40.6 38.7 43.1 51.8 61.2

‘Light’ at the end of the tunnel

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V-Guard Industries (CMP Rs 227, MCap Rs 96bn, TP Rs 251, BUY)

V-Guard was represented by Sudarshan Kasturi (CFO) at our Investor Forum. Key takeaways are as follows:

Kerala and overall demand outlook: The co. missed out on Onam sales (Gulf expats visit Kerala) this year owing to impact from floods. Rebuilding in Kerala will be gradual – Wires & Cables and Pumps will be key beneficiaries from replacement demand. Pan-India demand from large housing complex has slowed down while demand remains strong from independent houses.

2HFY19 to be stronger vs. 1HFY19: Co. expects to clock 15% revenue growth in 2H driven by introduction of new products in non-South markets, acceleration in spend owing to general elections, favorable base of summer products and price hike (2-2.5%). The co. guided for 10% EBITDAM for FY19.

Focus on consumer facing products: V-Guard stated that they are aggressive in B2C segment and hence recently entered into scalable B2C categories like KEA, Switchgears, Air coolers etc. (combined Rs ~100bn size; 4x of V-Guard revenues). As a result, their A&P spend ballooned in 4QFY18 & 1QFY19 (in-line with B2C products), which should benefit the co. in the medium-long term. KEA category is dominated by the South market (like mixer-grinder) – that is V-Guard’s fortress. Switchgear and Modular switches can be leveraged with the cos established distribution and brand recall in the electricals market. In Air coolers the co. sees a gap in the market i.e. between the leader (Symphony) and Kenstar and hence sees an opportunity.

Scope for EBITDAM expansion: GM of non-south has improved in the last 2-3 years (now ~100bps lower than South vs. 300-400bps 2-3 years ago). While EBITDAM difference in south and non-south

is high at ~700bps owing to distribution expansion ahead of revenue scale. With non-South region expected to gain scale over the next few years – the co. will benefit from fixed cost absorption. EBITDA margin of south and non-south is expected to be similar in 6-7 years, providing high visibility in co. level EBITDAM expansion.

Our view: We envisage a change in the 'DNA' of V-Guard driven by (1) New brand identity, (2) Senior level recruitment and (3) Tech rich product launches. V-Guard’s 1HFY19 performance has been dented with weak summer and Kerala floods, not structural challenges. 2HFY19 looks bright with softer commodity prices (Copper down 8% YoY), recovery from Kerala, improving demand outlook (elections), shift in festive season and favorable base.

Valuation: We value V-Guard at 35x P/E on Dec-20EPS (Sep-20 earlier), with TP of Rs 251 (Rs 240 earlier). We maintain BUY.

National evolution


Net Sales 20,856 23,117 26,191 30,583 35,520

EBITDA 2,087 1,870 2,607 3,392 4,060

APAT 1,447 1,601 2,038 2,618 3,205

Diluted EPS (Rs) 3.41 3.76 4.79 6.15 7.53

P/E (x) 65.9 59.7 46.9 36.5 29.8

EV / EBITDA (x) 45.2 50.6 36.1 27.4 22.5

Core RoCE (%) 26.8 20.5 25.3 30.4 33.5


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Symphony Limited was represented by Nrupesh Shah (Executive Director) and Milind Kotecha (Executive - Finance & Accounts) at our Investor Forum. Key takeaways are as follows: Near-term outlook remains weak: High channel inventory will

continue to dent near term performance, 3Q result will not be too different from 2QFY19. The co. expects 3QFY19 domestic sales to be slightly higher on QoQ basis but lower on YoY basis.

Symphony’s DNA is in-tact: The co. has been able to maintain the DNA of its business model i.e. off-season sales with 100% advances. Two consecutive weak seasons has resulted in higher than normal channel inventory. All the distributors have participated in off-season buying, although at lower levels (owing to higher than normal channel inventory). However, Symphony’s dealer level inventory is at lower levels vs. the industry. The co has witnessed stock out for certain SKUs (particularly >Rs 10k).

Branded category is evolving: Entry of branded players is aiding in developing the branded category, at a time when the unbranded players have witnessed a shake out (2 consecutive weak seasons). Symphony’s modern trade and e-commerce now contributes (45 days credit period) 15% revenue mix vs. 3-4% 4 years ago.

Exports - not even scratched the surface: Symphony is actively pursuing opportunities to ramp up its exports business (8% revenue mix) for residential air cooler. Management expects healthy growth from export business in the medium term.

Centralised air cooling – long-term opportunity: The co. has hired talent across India to drive industrial air cooling orders. Symphony believes this industry can be larger than centralised air conditioning (Rs 40bn) owing to 1/10th recurring cost and 1/3rd capital cost. Majority of the factories in China are centrally air cooled – driven by regulations.

CT Australia: Symphony expects to improve the efficiency of CT and leverage CT’s distribution network (particularly 2,200 Home depot stores) to retail Symphony’s air coolers. The co expects CT Aus to clock revenues/EBITDA/PAT of Rs 3/0.35/0.30bn in the first 12 months of acquisition.

Our View: Two consecutive weak summers have made the street believe that the air cooler category is not here to stay for long (we think otherwise). Symphony's business model of channel filling during off-season quarters, has made its performance look even more challenged vs. air conditioner players (only optically). We continue to remain bullish in the business and don't perceive any change in competitive strength. 2QFY19 performance reflects that the inherent strength of the business still holds (pricing power and distribution strength). We expect a bounce back (assuming normal summer) in the business. We believe the co. can enter into a strong earnings upcycle post 3QFY19 resulting in a re-rating.

Valuation: We cut our EPS estimates by 5/1/1% for FY19/20/21E to factor in weaker than expected primary growth. We value at 45x Dec-20 (Sep-20 earlier) EPS, our TP is at Rs 1,723. We maintain BUY.

Symphony Limited


(CMP Rs 1,077, MCap Rs 75bn, TP Rs 1,723, BUY)


Net Sales 7,680 7,983 9,425 12,294 14,193

EBITDA 2,009 2,193 1,994 3,006 3,572

APAT 1,691 1,926 1,587 2,347 2,818

Diluted EPS (Rs) 24.2 27.5 22.7 33.5 40.3

P/E (x) 50.4 44.2 53.7 36.3 30.2

EV / EBITDA (x) 40.9 36.9 41.2 26.9 22.3

Core RoCE (%) 106.9 89.9 45.6 49.1 54.2

Underlying strength persists

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Blue Star was represented by Neeraj Basur (CFO) at our Investor Forum. Key takeaways are as follows:

RAC market to grow by 5% in FY19: The co. has focused on normalising channel inventory for air conditioners. Seasonal benefits at primarily level will start from Feb-Mar onwards. Co. has taken ~5% price hike in 3Q but promotional spends have also increased (unlike Voltas’ strategy). RAC market is expected to grow by 5% in value and flat in volume terms in FY19. Blue Star is expected to clock 8-10% value growth in RAC in FY19.

Inverter share to rise gradually: Inverter is at 40% share in RAC, the co. expects it to reach 55-60% over the next 3 years. Inverter technology globally was launched 5 years back. For Blue Star, Window AC contributes 20% and Split 80%. In-house manufacturing contributes 60% (highest selling SKUs) followed by 25% from OEMs and 15% imports.

Distribution expansion in Tier-3/4: Blue Star is focusing on expanding distribution footprint in tier 3 & tier 4. The incremental demand will be higher from upcountry. Blue Star has ~4,500 touch points (vs. Voltas at 15,000) and dealers of ~3,000 (plans to reach 6,000 in few years). Ecommerce contributes only 4-5% of RAC industry vs. 10-12% for the consumer durable sector.

Do MNC’s pose a threat in the long run? Contradictory to other large appliance categories, domestic players (Voltas, Blue Star & Lloyd) have outperformed MNCs in RAC. As per the mgt, domestic companies in RAC can sustain market share despite rising competition from MNCs. Unlike what transpired with Videocon, Onida and BPL in other large appliances. This is because in RAC industry technology has evolved (energy efficiency) at a faster pace

vs. other appliances and hence industry leaders have protected market share. Additionally, RAC is not a typical plug-play appliance, it requires installation and strong after sales service. Domestic players have an edge in creating this trust and network in the country.

Our view: India’s Room AC penetration is low at ~5%, presenting a multi-year growth opportunity. Although the RAC market is getting competitive, Blue Star’ manufacturing strength and improving distribution will help in gaining market share. The co. targets 15% vs. 12% currently, driven by focus in North India. Despite a sluggish performance in summer 2018, we maintain that the RAC market will sustain its secular long-term growth (i.e. ~10% volume CAGR). Blue Star is consistently focusing on futuristic products (Water Purifier, air purifier, etc) which provides multi-year growth visibility for the company.

Valuation: We do not have a rating on Blue Star. The stock is trading at 27 and 21 P/E on FY20 and FY21 Bloomberg consensus.

Blue Star


(CMP Rs 610, MCap Rs 60bn, Rating NR)

YE March (Rs mn) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Net Revenues 29,343 31,819 37,980 43,852 47,408

EBITDA 1,506 1,673 2,149 2,224 2,763

APAT 707 1,033 1,142 1,231 1,440

Diluted EPS (Rs) 7.4 10.8 12.0 12.9 15

EV/EBITDA 56.8 38.5 29.1 27.8 23.1

P/E (x) 84.6 57.9 52.2 48.5 41.7

Core RoCE (%) 12.7 18.7 18.0 22.4 18.4

Worst is now behind

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EESL was represented by Saurabh Kumar (MD) at our Investor Forum. Key takeaways are as follows:

Focus shifting towards B-B: EESL is shifting their focus from B-C (LED lamps, fan, AC) to B-B business (street lighting, smart meters and electric vehicles). Therefore, most B-C programmes are witnessing closure (LED lamps, fan, AC) and B-B programmes will accelerate going ahead.

Ujala Program: Ujala programme was EESL’s most successful venture. At the beginning of the programme (in 2014), LED lamp procurement price was priced at Rs 310/lamp. Over the last 4 years, the procurement prices have dropped significantly to Rs 39/lamp (Mar-18). EESL has procured 360mn lamps and sold ~320mn so far (energy saving of 41bn kWh per year). EESL has also distributed 6.7mn LED tube lights and 2mn energy efficient fans. In FY14, India was annually consuming 770mn incandescent and 350mn CFL so total lamps consumed was ~110mn lamps annually. Now, it is expected to reach ~120mn lamps annually. CFL has been replaced by LED lamps but incandescent are still at ~770mn. In LED, Crompton has had a stellar run over the last few years (apart from Philips).

Air conditioners: EESL has procured 1,00,000 high efficient air conditioners (1.5ton, 5.3EER @Rs 35,000) from Panasonic and Godrej. They have already installed 40,000 units so far.

Street Lighting National Program (SNLP): SNLP programmed launched in 2015 with a target to replace 13.4mn conventional street lights with smart and energy efficient LED lights by Mar-19. So far EESL has installed 7.5mn lights, resulting in saving of 5bn kWh per year.

Smart Meter: EESL has procured 10mn smart meters, UP and Haryana are the key markets. First round of bid (5mn meters@Rs2,500) was mostly taken up by Genus while the second round (5mn meters @Rs2,000) was bid by Indian companies having ties with Chinese players. Govt. intervention is very high for metering, therefore the initiatives will see acceleration post LS election.

Electric Vehicles: EESL eyes opportunities for e-cars and targets to deploy 10,000 e-cars by Mar-19. Govt. officials own 0.5mn cars, which provides a sizable market to upgrade to e-cars. EESL has delivered 500 e-cars so far and another 500 e-cars are in the registration process. EESL expects to roll out 500 e-cars every month. Tata Motors and Mahindra have both bid for e-cars. Tata e-cars are facing technical issues. On the contrary, Mahindra’s e-car quality is superior.

Pumps: EESL has procured 150,000 submersible pumps (BEE 5 Star) and have installed ~42,000 pumps in Andhra Pradesh. CRI has supplied these pumps, they are ~30% more energy efficient.

EESL Shift in focus to B-B

10


Lemon Tree Hotels



Lemon Tree was represented by Mr. Kapil Sharma (CFO) and Mr.

Saurabh Jain (Manager Strategic Initiatives) at our Investor Forum.

Below are some insights and key takeaways:

Leading mid-market player: Lemon Tree (LTHL) is a leading mid-

market (2-star to 4-star) hotel chain. It has emerged as a

dominant player with ~8% market share (FY17) in the last

decade. Market share is set to expand to ~10.4% by FY21. LTHL

believes in value for money offering viz. providing a superior

quality experience to its customers at an economical price.

Pan India occupancy: Occupancy remains healthy at Pan India

level for fourth year in a row. It is expected to hit ~70% vs. 68%

last year. Over next two years it could potentially hit 74-75%.

LTHL’s recently opened Pune hotel is also witnessing healthy

occupancy (viz. on few days it has been 95%+). LTHL highlighted

the strong occupancy in Pune as the advantage of opening the

hotel in peak season.

ARR increase: Contrary to street’s assumption LTHL expects a

major double digit ARR hike next year. This year the ARR’s are

high across major markets. For FY19, we expects the ARR to

increase by ~11% led by changing room-mix and 13% ARR hike in

FY18 (primarily in 2HFY18).

Customer Portfolio: Large and SME corporate customers each

account for 1/3rd of LTHL’s room night. Rates are on contracted

basis with these customers. LTHL has taken ~4-6% ARR hike for

large corporate, 8-10% for SMEs and 10-15% for retail

customers.

Outlook: Medium term outlook of LTHL is robust with healthy

pipeline. LTHL’s owned rooms will grow by 50% from 3,277 as of

FY18 to 4,802 by FY21E. Geographic diversion and improving mix

of keys (90% of incremental inventory is 4-star vs. current 29%)

in demand dense higher ARR markets to drive strong growth.

Robust growth in rooms under management (4x over FY16-18, to

double over FY18-21E) is strategically positive and will drive up

ROCEs.

Our view: We like LTHL owing to its superior execution reflected

in industry’s leading growth, occupancies (76%) and lower capex

and operating costs. Key risk includes LTHL’s rich valuation which

leaves limited margin of safety in the event of increased

competition, lower ARR growth or execution delays. We value

LT @ 30x Dec-20E EV/EBITDA.

Rich valuation, limited room to err


Net Sales 4,121 4,843 5,784 7,113 8,367

EBITDA 1,165 1,361 1,809 2,398 3,095

APAT -62 140 393 426 843

Diluted EPS (Rs) (0.1) 0.2 0.5 0.5 1.1

P/E (x) (906.5) 401.8 143.3 132.2 66.7

EV / EBITDA (x) 54.7 48.5 37.8 29.3 23.2

RoE (%) (0.8) 1.7 4.7 4.9 9.0

11


Akhila Balanchandar (CFO) represented Mahindra Holidays (MHRIL) at our Investor Forum. Key takeaways are as follows:

VO sizeable opportunity: MHRIL is a leading player in leisure hospitality industry that offers quality family holiday through vacation ownerships (VO) as against Hotels that entertain weddings, conferences, foreign tourists etc. MHRIL currently has ~2.4lac members. It adds ~17-18k members p.a. It has a portfolio of 55+ properties and 3,500+ rooms (65% owned, rest are leased) primarily in India. Out of ~280-300mn households, ~30mn HHs are with Rs 1mn+ income p.a. which is the potential target market.

Membership plans: MHRIL’s membership plans are based on peak & non-peak seasons. Non-peak: Blue, mid-peak: White, peak: Red & super-peak: Purple. These memberships are valid for 25 years term for 7days of holiday/year. MHRIL provides EMI option of 12-48 mths @ 15% interest. Minimum down-payment is 10%.

Unique business model strength: Contrary to Hotels which runs after occupancy; MHRIL can accommodate 52members/room, however has 68 members/room. It thus enjoy a healthy occupancy ratio of 85%. But, this impacts customer service especially during peak seasons at certain high-demand locations. Also to avoid customer dissatisfaction, MHRIL has proactively started educating customers, embracing digital technologies.

MHRIL intents to bring down the members/room ratio to 65. It has thus committed ~Rs 5bn of planned capex for addition of 500 more rooms (Goa, Kerala & Shimla) besides acquiring properties on lease basis.

Target customer segment: MHRIL targets 35+ years of individuals

who are married, owns a house and has +1mn of income. It also looks for individuals with high discretionary income and to whom they can push the product with ease.

Revenue Streams : MHRIL’s revenue accounts of four major components (a) Membership fee (VO) income amortized equally over the life of the customer. Earlier upto FY18, MHRIL used to account 60% upfront and balance 40% was amortized. (b) Annual maintenance charges for the upkeep of resorts (c) Resort income comprising of non-member stay charges, F&B and activity charges and (d) Interest income.

Our View: We believe MHRIL under-performance in YTD FY19 due to broader market correction, accounting policy change provides an attractive opportunity. MHRIL’s strong balance sheet (cash-on-hand of ~Rs 4.5bn) can accelerate its expansion plans.

Mahindra Holidays


(CMP Rs 194, MCap Rs 26bn, NOT RATED)

YE March (Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Net Sales 8,119 16,021 22,666 23,169

EBITDA 1,804 2,633 3,219 3,468

APAT 809 901 1,456 1,328

Diluted EPS (Rs) 9.2 10.2 16.5 10.0

P/E (x) 21.5 19.4 12.0 19.8

EV/EBITDA 14.1 8.0 6.7 6.7

RoE (%) 11.2 14.6 26.4 20.3

Niche play

12


Hotelivate, consultant

Hotelivate was represented by Achin Khanna (Managing Partner,

Strategic Advisory) at our Investor Forum. Key takeaways are as

follows:

Demand-healthy, supply-constrained: Domestic travel demand

is buoyant growing at 8-12% p.a. There are significant

opportunities in Tier-II and Tier-III cities. Supply is expected to

grow at a modest ~5% CAGR (~7k rooms p.a.). Chennai and

Kolkata to be the only markets with demand-supply mismatch.

Branded hotel rooms count in India is ~1.3-1.4lacs. New York,

Singapore, Tokyo etc. each have similar number of branded

rooms. Thus, there is a significant scope for room growth in

India.

ARR hikes likely and certain, pace to be slow: Contrary to the

street’s perception of healthy ARR growth, Achin expects it to

grow at a moderate pace of 5-6% especially in the city hotels.

This too, would be healthy and more sustainable unlike 2003-08,

where the growth and decline were equally fast.

There has been reluctance from hoteliers to raise rates. This is to

fill heads for the beds. This has to alter for long-term health of

the industry. Dependence on corporate customers is high and

here getting the rate hike is difficult. Share of corporates has

declined from ~80% to ~70% in last 5-7 years and has been

replaced by more profitable segment of MICE.

Wedding - large and profitable segment: Each hotel has 3-4

wedding functions/day for ~60-90 days p.a. These are highly

profitable and accounts for ~10-15% of the total India revenue.

Hotel - low ROCE business: Hotel as an asset class, is a lower

ROCE business due to its high costs of land, construction, delay in

approvals, delayed project etc. However, there are different

motives that keep attracting the investors. Traditionally, a very

few hoteliers concentrated on ROCEs, but now there are signs of

change.

Staff/room ratio – improvement inevitable: Indian consumers

are over-serviced and hotels are over-staffed. On an average,

hotels in India have 2-3x staff/room vs. global peers. Multi-

tasking, cross functional training, operations re-engineering etc.

are likely to bring down this ratio in medium term but, unlikely to

hit global standards. Achin cited Hilton Philadelphia has ~600

rooms but only 200 staff. Countries like Indonesia (Bali and

Jakarta) prosper through tourism income and have done

necessary interventions to improve profitability.

Talent – key constraint: Availability of experienced hotel general

manager is the key constraint. Average GM’s are young

professionals in their 30’s and lacks experience across cycles to

capitalize on up-cycle and hedge during down-cycle.

HDFC Sec View: We agree with Achin’s view of demand

outpacing supply and moderate growth in ARR. Valuations are

not cheap but the sector has potentials to transform itself from a

cyclical to a structural play with increasing travel demand from

Indian consumers, changing mix of customers, lower room

penetration etc. We remain positive on Indian Hotels and Lemon

Tree.

FOMO syndrome

13


Zee Entertainment (Zee) was represented by Bijal Shah (Head IR) and

Nandish Dalal (Manager IR) at our investor forum. Key takeaways are

as follows:

Linear TV on strong footing – advertising to do well: Led by

industry tailwinds and viewership share gains, Zee foresees

strong advertising revenue growth to continue. This is led by the

largest advertising category FMCG. Also categories like BFSI,

healthcare etc spend very low on TV advertising vs. global

benchmarks. We see this new categories emerging and help

grow overall pie.

Zee highlighted its viewership is well spread across channels &

programs; and thus low concentration risk. Zee believes that TV

advertising to remain relevant owing to low TV penetration

(65%), 70% of TVs in India are Cathode Ray Tube (CRTs) or low

end and thus mitigates OTT risk.

Subscription – still some stem left: As per Zee, there is still room

for growth in subscription revenues. Monetization of phase III is

still playing out more than a year after the completion.

TRAI tariff order – likely to be positive: Zee foresees TRAI tariff

order to be beneficial to it. It doesn’t foresee the bouquet

phenomenon going away and thus impacting advertising

revenue. It may help uplift the industry ARPU and thus boosts

subscription revenues. Implementation of the order will be

paramount.

Zee5’s focus is on original content and movies: Zee targets to

become leading entertainment app as users settle for 2-4 apps

across entertainment (ZEE5) and sports (Hotstar) eventually.

Large and exclusive movie library, strong regional content (90% +

consumption including Hindi), large creative team focusing on

original programming are key USPs.

Zee highlighted Amazon Prime’s focus on movies is a major

competition factor than Netflix’s whose focus is on original

content. Netflix is a premium player with focus on English,

though it may change over time.

Our View: Zee’s core TV business remains on strong footing and

is gearing up well on OTT front as it starts becoming mainstream

over next 3-5 years. We like Zee owing to its superior execution,

industry leading growth/margins.

Stake sale by promoter up to 50% of their holding (even 100% at

significant premium) and the overhang of pledged shares will

persist till this exercise is concluded. Potential exit (or reduction

in stake) by capable and efficient management is a key concern,

especially when industry is witnessing structural shifts. We value

Zee @ 25x Dec-20E EPS with a TP of Rs 504.

Zee Entertainment



YE March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E

Net Sales 64,341 66,857 78,401 88,828 99,917

EBITDA 19,200 20,761 25,530 28,396 32,093

APAT 9,910 11,837 14,665 17,446 19,985

Diluted EPS (Rs) 10.3 12.3 15.3 18.2 20.8

P/E (x) 43.3 36.3 29.3 24.6 21.5

EV / EBITDA (x) 21.5 20.0 16.1 14.1 12.1

RoE (%) 17.2 16.6 18.1 18.8 18.7

Gearing up for changing landscape

14


Dish TV (DITV) was represented by Rajeev Dalmia and Tarun Nanda

(CFO and Head, IR) at our Investor Forum. Key takeaways are as

follows:

Subscriber addition: DITV reiterated its guidance of 1.2-1.3mn

sub additions (vs. 0.4mn in 1HFY19). For FY20, DITV expects to

add 1.8mn subscribers owing to World Cup and general

elections.

ARPU: DITV highlighted that ARPU would lose its relevance post

the new tariff order. However, network capacity fee (Rs

130/sub), plus discount and commission from broadcasters

should enable to improve the EBITDA/sub. In the medium term,

the tariff order may also enable to reduce license fees (viz.

payment on net basis excluding content costs). Large MSOs are

aligned for implementation of tariff order.

Post merger synergies: DITV highlighted that the synergies on

interest, administration, STB sourcing etc are on track. Content

costs which would have been a major savings grace but has

altered with new tariff order.

Costs rationalization effort: DITV highlighted there are industry

level discussions to reduce subsidy on STB by selling it at or near

costs or to rationalize sales commission.

Acquisition of MSOs by Jio: DITV foresees the acquisition of

Den/Hathway/GTPL by Jio as a positive. It would keep the later

busy in converting these cable subscribers to its upcoming Giga

Fiber services then poach the high ARPU customers of DTH.

Pledged shares: DITV highlighted that the pledged share issue

should get resolved with the actions at group level (viz. promoter

stake sale in Zee, sale of solar and other power assets). We

believe this should remove a major overhang.

Outlook: Near term outlook for DITV remains uncertain with

impending launch of Jio Giga Fiber services and TRAI tariff order.

Our view: Dish TV’s weak execution, poor governance

(aggressive accounting and balance sheet issues) and sharp

swings in ARPU (almost every year) have dispelled investors. Yet,

our positive view on DITV is on account of its inexpensive

valuations (5.7/5.3x FY19/20E EV/E) on modest growth

assumptions. DITV sharpened focus and execution on subscriber

quality and revenue growth is inevitable for re-rating. Reduction

in pledged shareholding will be additional positive. We value

DITV @ 7x Dec-20E EV/E with a TP of Rs 58.

Dish TV




Net Sales 30,144 46,342 65,309 68,540 72,602

EBITDA 9,680 14,001 21,991 23,542 24,611

APAT 821 (9) 1,604 3,059 3,946

Diluted EPS (Rs) 0.8 (0.0) 0.8 1.6 2.1

P/E (x) 50.2 na 46.3 24.3 18.8

EV / EBITDA (x) 6.4 6.1 5.6 5.1 4.8

RoE (%) 21.1 (0.0) 2.4 4.4 5.4

Execution, improved governance and reduction in pledge key

15


Music Broadcast Ltd.



Music Broadcast Ltd. was represented by Sangeetha Kabadi (AVP - Corporate Strategy & IR) and Jimmy Oza (AVP - Corporate Strategy & IR) at our Investor Forum. Key takeaways are as follows:

Radio as a medium to thrive: MBL believes radio as a medium is likely to sustain and grow. Besides offering free music, there are live updates, local news and entertaining radio jockeys which are some big differentiator for the medium. It will continue to be add-on advertising medium. Print is consumed early morning, TV in the late evening but radio throughout the day being a passive medium. Time spent on entertainment is significantly lower in India and thus even minutes per user are constant on TV/radio. Digital consumption is additional.

Attracting customers through content: MBL’s key focus is on content and makes it very city centric to attract listeners. For eg: Humour based for Delhi, utility based (traffic updates, news) for Mumbai, interacting jocks for Bangalore etc MBL performs a ‘Research & Review’ methodology to understand the listeners needs; and targets different group of people in different time slots.

Market share: In top-15 markets, MBL has 20-25% of share. In FY18, ENIL & MBL were at ~21%, Red & Big FM at 19/17%.

Kolkata Station: MBL acquired Friends FM station in Kolkata for Rs 350mn in Apr-18. However, it still awaits approval from the MIB for consolidation. It expects 17-18% IRR.

Expansion plans: With Rs 2bn net cash, MBL is open for inorganic growth but only at a reasonable cost. Footprints in

South India, MP are weak and are potential target markets.

Outlook: MBL expects FY19 revenue growth of 11-12% (vs. 7% in 1HFY19). Shift of festive season to Q3, elections and price increases to drive growth. MBL has taken ~8% price increase. In the medium term, MBL expects 10-12% revenue growth initially (1-2 years) driven by 50:50 mix of volume and pricing. Later it would be largely driven by pricing. Maintenance capex to be ~Rs 60-70mn p.a.

Our view: We like MBL owing to its superior execution, focused strategy of geographic then multi-frequency expansion in same markets, healthy balance sheet, return ratios and cash flows. We value MBL @25x Dec-20E FCFE/sh.

Poised for rebound


Net Sales 2,714 2,982 3,300 3,780 4,197

EBITDA 913 971 1,130 1,352 1,548

APAT 367 517 612 767 910

Diluted EPS (Rs) 6.4 9.1 10.7 13.4 15.9

P/E (x) 49.2 34.9 29.5 23.5 19.8

EV / EBITDA (x) 18.0 16.6 14.5 11.8 10.1

RoE (%) 10.9 9.0 10.4 12.8 14.3

16


Radico Khaitan



Radico was represented by Dilip Banthiya (CFO) at our Investor

Forum. Key takeaways are as follows:

Healthy growth in trailing 12m: Low base, stable operating

environment, raw material tailwinds, route-to-market changes

etc have enabled RDCK to register a healthy growth. In trailing

12m, RDCK’s revenue/EBITDA/PAT increased by 20/44/85%.

Outlook upbeat: RDCK’s mgmt remains confident of healthy

growth led by new brand launches and premiumisation. In IMFL

business (75% of the revenue), mgmt expect ~8-10% volume and

13-15% value growth led by price/mix improvement. Non-IMFL

business to grow in low-single digit.

Overall EBITDA margin to improve by ~200bps in FY19 and

100bps p.a. in FY20/21 led by premiumisation and price

increases. RDCK remains confident of RM tailwind to sustain

upto FY20 despite all the noise of increase in ENA prices.

Segment/brand outlook: RDCK enjoys a lion’s share in Vodka. It

has increased A&P spend to accelerate the Vodka category

growth. Vodka constitutes a meagre 3-4% of the liquor

consumption vs. 30% globally. It believes that the category can

double over next few years. Whisky is a large segment and

RDCK’s 8 PM has established well in regular segment. RDCK plans

to launch 2-3 brands in semi-premium and premium segment

over next 2-3 years.

RDCK is increasingly focussing on digital marketing, in-store

promotions, new celebrities sign-up etc. ATL:BTL spend is at

50:50. Overall S&D spend to be 7-8% of revenues.

State-wise revenue mix: For RDCK of the IMFL revenue, North

region accounts for ~35%, South 30%, CSD 15%, East 8%, West

6% and Exports 6% of the sales.

Key risk: Lack of price increases, exorbitant increase in state

levies and route-to-market changes are key risks.

Outlook: RDCK's niche segment and geographic presence,

market share gains, premiumisation, price increases, and RM

tailwinds have been the key factor driving superior growth. RDCK

has effectively utilized its superior growth in trailing 2.5yrs to de-

leverage; for new launches, branding and promotions. We like

RDCK owing to its healthy growth and relatively cheap valuation

at 26/23x FY19/20E EPS vs. 52/43x for UNSP. We value RDCK @

32x Dec-20E EPS with TP of Rs 568.


Net Sales 16,799 18,228 20,874 22,497 24,060

EBITDA 2,121 2,698 3,465 3,812 4,249

APAT 809 1,235 1,826 2,112 2,447

Diluted EPS (Rs) 6.1 9.3 13.7 15.9 18.4

P/E (x) 66.0 43.2 29.2 25.3 21.8

EV / EBITDA (x) 28.6 21.7 16.5 14.8 12.8

RoE (%) 8.1 11.4 14.9 15.0 15.1

Getting ready for the big leap

17


Disclosure: We, Naveen Trivedi, MBA, Siddhant Chhabria, PGDBM, Himanshu Shah, CA & Mansi Lall, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. 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