hayhoe climate

WHAT IS HAPPENING TO OUR WORLD … AND WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?!

KATHARINE HAYHOE

a climate for change!

America’s first climate refugees: ALASKA

Frozen ground is melting & eroding

The people of Newtok, AK

have already been driven from

their homes.

Kivalina may be next.

!"#$ %&'(%

What is happening to our world?

The Earth is getting warmer …

9 of last 10 years warmest on record

2000s: warmest decade on record

… despite recent claims of “cooling”

It’s happening faster and faster

And this is just a fraction of total heating.

Sea level is rising, as ice sheets melt

Arctic sea ice is shrinking

!! !"##$%&'$(&)*$&$+,$-,&.$*%$('$.&/01234&56$%&7(',&83&9%'&

!! :*$1;%$$&'"##$%'&7)<$79&*5##5-&=),>)-&?&.$*(.$'&

Blomstrandbrennen Glacier in Norway

1922 1992

Too much water, as glaciers melt

Franz Josef Glacier, New Zealand


Orubare Glacier, Uganda


Shepard Glacier, Glacier National Park, USA

When the park was created: over 150 glaciers

In 2005: 27 glaciers remaining

)**+%,-,.%


The Rhone glacier in the Bernese Oberland, Switzerland


Not enough water, as others are in drought

Central Africa

Ecosystems shifting, as temperatures warm

Where you live today feels like it used to

~200 miles south, just 25 years ago.

Our world is changing

@ABC:@B&!DB:EF&

C)7(*'G&>5-$9'"*<7$G&(-.&5,>$%&

>(%H)-I$%'&5;&'J%)-I&(%$&K5=$%)-I&/12&=$$<'&$(%7)$%&)-&,>$&9$(%L&

!M:NO:EF&PBQD!&AER&DCAEO!&

P$-,$%&5;&H7"$H$%%9&J%5."*S5-&>('&'>)T$.&

-5%,>=(%.G&;%5#&U()-$&,5&V"$H$*L&


@WOB@U@&M@AO&

B$*5%.&>)I>&,$#J$%(,"%$'&(-.&

>$(,&=(6$'&2+&#5%$&;%$X"$-,L&



RBQYFMO&

P%5J&75''$'&5;&Z0[&J$%&

9$(%&')-*$&/\]3'L&

D@!O!&UQ^:EF&EQBOM&

C$''&*57.&.(9'&,5&<$$J&

%$.&(-,'&_&<".`"&(,&H(9&



Responses to warming

temperatures seen in

more than 26,000 physical

and biological systems

around the world.

!"#$ % $/&%

Are these conditions unusual?

“Natural” thermometer records

Conditions today are unusual in the

context of the last 2,000 years …

Today"

… and even the last 6,000 years.

Today"

!"#$ % $0# ( (%

Why is this happening?

Could it be the sun?

Today"

What about natural cycles?

What about natural cycles?

An extra “blanket” around the Earth

OM@&EAOYBAC

&FB@@EMQY!@&@NN@PO&

&&&&-(,"%(779&)-*%$('$'

&@(%,>a'&,$#J$%(,"%$&H9&

&b35N&

OM@&@EMAEP@R

&FB@@EMQY!@&@NN@PO&&&&

&&&&>('&(%Sc*)(779&)-*%$('$.

&@(%,>a'&,$#J$%(,"%$&H9

&/L85N&

We produce heat-trapping gases

From our factories, cars, homes, farms

Who is responsible?

Last year, annual emissions from China caught up with those from the US.

How do we know it’s us?

Quantifying the human influence

!"#$ % 1&2#%

But what about …

It’s snowing today! Record cold!

d@AOM@Be&M5=&

*5-.)S5-'&*>(-I$&

;%5#&.(9&,5&.(9G&5%&

$6$-&9$(%&,5&9$(%&

1f&"-J%$.)*,(H7$g&

It’s snowing today! Record cold!

d@AOM@Be&M5=&

*5-.)S5-'&*>(-I$&

;%5#&.(9&,5&.(9G&5%&

$6$-&9$(%&,5&9$(%&

1f&"-J%$.)*,(H7$g&

PC:UAO@e&O>$&75-I1

,$%#&(6$%(I$&5;&

=$(,>$%&56$%&

.$*(.$'&

1f&6$%9&J%$.)*,(H7$g&

Maybe it’s just

the urban heat

island effect.

d>$%$&J$5J7$&

7)6$&

d>$%$&),a'&

=(%#)-I&;(',$',&

!!@6$%9,>)-I&.)'*"''$.&)-&,>$&',57$-&$#()7'&>(.&H$$-

&J"H7)'>$.&)-&,>$&'*)$-Sc*&7),$%(,"%$&;5%&9$(%'&

!!?&)-.$J$-.$-,&%$*5%.'&5;&I75H(7&,$#J$%(,"%$&;%5#&EA!AG

&EQAAG&(-.&h(J(-&'>5=&'(#$&=(%#)-I&,%$-.'&

!!2iG333&J>9')*(7&(-.&H)575I)*(7&'9',$#'&%$K$*,&'(#$

&=(%#)-I&,%$-.'&

[QOOQU&C:E@e&A&;$=&J$%'5-(7&$#()7'&>(6$&-5

&)#J(*,&5-&56$%(77&"-.$%',(-.)-I&,>(,&>"#(-

&(*S6),9&)'&.%)6)-I&.(-I$%5"'&7$6$7'&5;&I75H(7

&=(%#)-IL&

Didn’t those stolen emails disprove it?

Warming of the climate system is now evident from observations. Most of the increase is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in heat-trapping gas concentrations due to human activities [including burning fossil fuels].

Climatic change is being brought about by human-induced increases in the concentration of

atmospheric carbon dioxide, primarily through the processes of combustion [burning] of fossil fuels.

Aren’t scientists always disagreeing?

Warming of the climate system is now evident from observations. Most of the increase is very likely (>90%) due to the observed increase in heat-trapping gas concentrations due to human activities [including burning fossil fuels].

Climatic change is being brought about by human-induced increases in the concentration of

atmospheric carbon dioxide, primarily through the processes of combustion [burning] of fossil fuels.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007

“The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on Temperature”

Guy Callendar, 1938

Aren’t scientists always disagreeing?

Humans are the only explanation.

!"#$ % 1 3 4 (%

Why should I care?

We’re already concerned about this

What can we expect in the future?

But this is what’s coming next.

What can we expect in the future?

Future change depends on our choices now

Hot and sticky summers:

MD under lower emissions

SC under higher emissions

What does this mean … for Massachusetts?

Summers: hot and humid

Winters: warmer,

but just as much snow

SUMMER

WINTER

What does this mean … for Chicago?

What does this mean … for the US?

Weeks per Year > 100oF (38oC)

Historical


Future: Lower Emissions



Future: Higher Emissions


This century: hundreds of millions of refugees

In 2009: 300,000 deaths per year

300 million already at risk from climate change

What does this mean … for the world?

In 2000: 150,000 deaths per year

More frequent & severe heat waves

What does this mean … for Europe?

European Heat Wave of 2003

>70,000 deaths

What does this mean … for Australia?

More droughts & wildfires

like the devastating fires

of January 2009.

More unpredictable

weather conditions.

What does this mean … for Latin America?

C:UAG&D@BY&

]&#)77)5-&J$5J7$&

7$''&,>(-&2j&%()-&J$%&9%&

/&H)77)5-&=5%7.1=).$&

.$J$-.&5-&I7(*)$%&

#$7,&;5%&=(,$%&

What does this mean … for California?

Half of

California’s

water comes

from mountain

snow.

70-90% of that

could be gone

before the end

of the century.

Warmer water =

Stronger tropical

storms

What does this mean … for our coasts?

Hurricane power and ocean temperature

Rising sea level

What does this mean … for our coasts?

Tuvalu, South Pacific

… and even entire nations?

Today, our neighbors are being harmed

B)')-I&'$(&7$6$7'G&=).$'J%$(.&.%5"I>,G&(-.

&%(J).79&.)'(JJ$(%)-I&I7(*)$%'&(%$&(7%$(.9

&,>%$(,$-)-I&#)77)5-'&=),>&75''&5;&=(,$%G

&;55.G&(-.&$6$-&7);$L&

O5.(9G&5"%&I75H(7&-$)I>H5%'k,>$&J55%&(-.

&J$5J7$&*"%%$-,79&',%(-I$%'&,5&"'k(%$&#5',

&6"7-$%(H7$&,5&>(%#&;%5#&*7)#(,$1%$7(,$.

&)#J(*,'L&

1&!"#$%&'()"*+,"#-'./)"

!"#$ % 5 3 6%

What can we do about it?

We have 3 choices:

ld$&H(')*(779&>(6$&,>%$$&*>5)*$'e&#)SI(S5-G

&(.(J,(S5-G&(-.&'"m$%)-IL&&

d$a%$&I5)-I&,5&.5&'5#$&5;&$(*>L&O>$

&X"$'S5-&)'&=>(,&,>$&#)+&)'&I5)-I&,5&H$L&&

O>$&#5%$&#)SI(S5-&=$&.5G&,>$&7$''

&(.(J,(S5-&=)77&H$&%$X")%$.&(-.&,>$&7$''

&'"m$%)-I&,>$%$&=)77&H$Lj&

& & & &789:%08;<=>:%& & & &D%$').$-,a'&!*)$-*$&A.6)'5%n&M(%6(%.&Y-)6$%'),9&

1. Educate ourselves

How climate change affects us here in the US US Global Change Program

www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts

How we know it’s happening and

why it matters climateforchangethebook.com

2. Prepare for what we can’t avoid

Conserve the

resources we have

Protect ourselves from

what we can

3. Reduce our own impact

stop using this start using this Each US household replacing 1 light bulb

= taking 1,000,000 cars off the road (+$30 savings per bulb)

stop using this start using this

4. Support fundamental change

Renewable energy gives us clean air and water, and home-grown energy sources that will never run out. So, why not?

Change is happening

1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

167 nations agree to reduce heat-trapping gas emissions, to

prevent dangerous human interference with climate system.

Change is

possible

THE END

1&# %?&#( % 3 ' 1&#?"$ 3&' %

///@A"$0"# 3' (0"B0&( @C&? %

///@C D 3?"$ 1&#C0"'E($0(F&&A @C&? %

hayhoe climate

Technology

r i n e h

glaciers meltorubare

burning fossil fuels

future change

rhone glacier

shepard glacier

blomstrandbrennen glacier

climatic change