hawai‘i’senergy report card 2019 · phase out the sale of new gas cars norway india netherlands...

HAWAI‘I’S

ENERGY REPORT CARD2019

C B+D C+ D+ B-

Blue Planet Foundation’s Energy Report Card presents a big-picture assessment of Hawai‘i’s progress toward energy independence with 100% clean energy. By evaluating five key components—transportation, energy efficiency, renewables, smart grid, and economics—and tracking specific factors that influence them, we can identify bright spots and opportunities to improve. These grades generally reflect our clean energy progress through 2018.

CLEAN ENERGY GRADES TRANSPORTATION EFFICIENCY RENEWABLES SMART GRID ECONOMICS

PREVIOUSLY: B-PREVIOUSLY: A-PREVIOUSLY: D+ PREVIOUSLY: B+ PREVIOUSLY: D PREVIOUSLY: C+

HAWAI‘I 2019

ENERGY REPORT CARDOBJECTIVE:

100% CLEAN ENERGY

OVERALL

GRADE

PREVIOUSLY: B-

Hawai‘i is way off target. Our total fossil fuel consumption hasn’t meaningfully decreased. To get back on track for energy independence by 2045, we need rapid clean energy deployment in our electricity and transportation sectors.

HERE’S HOW TO READ THE CHARTSTARGET TREND LINE The blue target trend marks the pace of progress that would keep the state on track for a fossil-fuel-free future.

GREEN SHADING The green shading indicates positive results.

RED SHADING The red shading indicates shortfalls.

NOTES Notes about trends, anomalies, and opportunities are included in the explanations following each chart.Annual fossil fuel energy consumption (including coal, natural gas, and all petroleum products) from U.S. EIA. 2018’s

value is adjusted in proportion to change in petroleum imports from 2017 to 2018 from DBEDT’s Monthly Energy Trends (MET). 2018 coal and natural gas use assumed to be same as 2017. Target trend based on assumed decline from 2008 consumption level, at the inception of the HCEI, to zero in 2045.

OVERALL PROGRESS: ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTIONA

NN

UA

L FO

SS

IL F

UEL

CO

NS

UM

PTI

ON

(TR

ILLI

ON

BTU

)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

330

310

290

270

250

230

210

190

170

1

DGRADE

PREVIOUSLY: D+

TRANSPORTATION

PRIMARY METRIC

FOSSIL-BASED MOTOR FUEL SALESTransportation accounts for almost two-thirds of our fossil fuel consumption, making sustainable mobility solutions essential to moving Hawai‘i beyond oil. Greater fuel efficiency, alternative and biofuels, lower mileage, and EVs all play a role. In the past year, demand for fossil-fueled transportation hasn’t gone down, and we are not yet on track.

COUNTIES COMMIT TO 100% RENEWABLE TRANSPORTATION—WHAT’S NEXT?In 2017, Hawai‘i’s four mayors announced a 100% renewable ground transportation goal by 2045. But in 2018, total fuel sales increased 1%. We need clear policy tools to make progress.

TRANSPORTATION

Sources: Six-month moving average of monthly gasoline, highway diesel and LPG, small boat gasoline and diesel, and aviation fuel sales, DBEDT or DoTax. Does not include federal (military) sector. Energy independence target trends assume that fossil-based transportation fuel sales decrease linearly from the 2008 monthly average to zero gallons by 2045.

ALL TRANSPORTATION FUEL SALES

GROUND TRANSPORATION & SMALL BOAT FUEL SALES

AVIATION FUEL SALES

TRA

NS

PO

RTA

TIO

N F

UEL

SA

LES

(MIL

LIO

NS

OF

GA

L/M

O)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

TARGET TREND EXCEEDING TARGET NOT MEETING TARGET

3

VEHICLE FUEL ECONOMY

• Hawai‘i motor vehicle fuel economy: Consumption (gasoline, highway diesel, and highway LPG) and VMT, State of Hawai‘i DoTax Annual Fuels Reports and the 2017 State of Hawai‘i Data Book, Table 18.17.

• Target trends: U.S. federal CAFE standards for cars and light trucks, calculated by the International Council on Clean Transportation.

WITH LOW GASOLINE PRICES AND NO PRICE ON CARBON,

MORE PEOPLE ARE GETTING INTO LARGER, LESS EFFICIENT VEHICLESPickups and SUVs made up 48.7% of vehicle sales in 2012; today it is 70%. The Toyota Tacoma (18-21 mpg) continues its decades-long reign as Hawai‘i’s best-selling vehicle.

At 22 miles per gallon (mpg) on average, we are not on track to achieve the modest U.S. goal of 36 mpg by 2025, under current federal CAFE standards. We are miles behind the European Union, Japan, and other places that have far more ambitious goals.

FACTORNo.1

MIL

ES P

ER G

ALL

ON

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 20182000

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

PASSENGER CARS

HAWAI‘I TOTAL FLEET FUEL ECONOMY ‘18 TOYOTA TACOMA MPG: 20

CAFE-BASED FUEL ECONOMY

TARGETS LIGHT TRUCKS


ELECTRIC VEHICLES ALSO ENABLE A SMARTER GRIDto integrate more renewable energy. See page 32 for information on EVs.

ELECTRIC VEHICLES MAKE UP ONLY 1% OF ALL REGISTERED VEHICLES IN HAWAI‘IWe need enforceable laws to make our clean transportation goals a reality.

TRANSPORTATION

ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE MUCH LESS EXPENSIVE TO “FUEL” PER MILE. While electric vehicles that charge on the existing electricity grid still use mostly fossil fuel, they use that fuel more effectively than a typical gasoline engine.

OUTLOOK & OPPORTUNITIES

AT LEAST 10 COUNTRIES AND OVER 20 CITIES have recognized that fossil fuel-powered ground transportation needs to end and have set real deadlines.

COUNTRIES THAT HAVE ENACTED LAWS TO PHASE OUT THE SALE OF NEW GAS CARS

NORWAY INDIANETHERLANDS

ISRAELFRANCE

UKDENMARK

IRELANDSWEDEN

COSTA RICA

BY 2025

BY 2030

BY 2030

BY 2030 BY 2030

BY 2030

BY 2030BY 2040

BY 2021

BY 2030

5

THE MOST PROMISING STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING VMT INCLUDE:

INCREASING FUEL TAXES Saving 28 million gal/year by 2030

TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT 23 million gal/year

TELECOMMUTING BY PUBLIC EMPLOYEES AND LARGE EMPLOYERS 5 million gal/year

TRANSPORTATIONCAR SHARING AND BIKE SHARING CAN REDUCE VMT. Programs like Servco’s Hui car-sharing service provide an alternative to car ownership by supplying rental vehicles on shorter, more flexible terms than traditional rentals. Shared mobility options allow residents to mostly use alternative modes and only drive when needed.


IN 2017, BIKESHARE HAWAI‘I LAUNCHED BIKI. Just a short two years later, Biki celebrated its two-millionth ride. As of July 2019, the Biki network had 1,300 bikes and 130 stations. Locals make up 65% of Biki’s riders.

The City and County of Honolulu is committed to boosting bike ridership and safety. O‘ahu has 205 miles of bikeways, and the City wants to add 577 more miles, according to a recent draft proposal.

STCH—Hawai‘i’s local U.S. DOE Clean Cities coalition—connects a diverse group of stakeholders to coordinate advocacy and education on sustainable transportation in Hawai‘i.

7

Bus efficiency is a good deal, at more than 62 passenger mpg. But we need to improve bus frequency, and enhance “last-mile” (i.e. transportation hub to final destination) coverage to attract more riders.

Average weekday ridership of TheBus has

DECREASED 4.9% SINCE 2014.

PUBLIC TRANSIT EFFICIENCYFACTORNo.3

20152014 2016 2017 2018PAS

SEN

GER

S (T

HO

US

AN

DS

) 225

220

215

210

205

200

195

Honolulu public transit efficiency is presented as a two-year moving average of passenger miles and fuel consumption as reported by the National Transit Database.

HN

L P

UB

LIC

TR

AN

SIT

PA

SS

ENG

ER M

PG

OF

FOS

SIL

FU

EL

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

70

65

60

55

50

45

40 IMPROVING DECLINING

208,430

222,873

234,059

206,669

200,070

ELECTRIC BUSES ARE CHARGING AHEADJTB Hawai‘i introduced the state’s first three electric-powered commercial buses in March 2019. The tour buses can travel 250 miles on a single charge. The exteriors are decorated with artwork by students who participated in a Blue Planet Foundation art competition to envision a clean transportation future.

HAWAI‘I’S COUNTIES ARE AIMING TO LEAD.As part of the mayors’ proclamation to transition to 100% renewable ground transportation by 2045, the counties of Honolulu, Maui, and Kaua‘i committed to converting their county fleets even sooner—by 2035.

TRANSPORTATIONOUTLOOK & OPPORTUNITIES MOST STATES ARE

INVESTING IN CLEAN PUBLIC TRANSIT.

According to the National Transit Database, battery electric buses are being piloted or used in 52 public transit systems in 41 states. Biodiesel is being used by roughly 54 transit agencies. Hydrogen is being used by 4.

IN JUNE 2019, MAYORS FROM 127 CITIES ANNOUNCED THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE PURCHASING COLLABORATIVE AT THE CLIMATE MAYORS SUMMIT IN HONOLULUThe collaborative has committed to purchasing more than 2,100 EVs by the end of 2020.

9

EFFICIENCYPREVIOUSLY: A-

B+GRADE

Energy data: Primary energy consumption data, U.S. EIA. Target trend assumes 30% decrease in per capita energy consumption from 2008 to 2030. See page 43 for details of our population model. Energy consumption comparison among states in accompanying paragraph is also from EIA.

PRIMARY METRIC

ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITAEfficiency is still our cheapest and easiest form of clean energy. This shows our gains in efficiency by examining Hawai‘i’s per capita consumption of energy since 1997. Hawai‘i’s efficiency grade reflects progress on using less electricity as well as changes in transportation fuel use.

We’ve come a long way since our 2007 peak, decreasing our per capita energy use by 24% in a decade. But since 2012, our progress has been sluggish. Even so, Hawai‘i uses less energy per capita than 48 other states, behind New York and Rhode Island.

EFFICIENCYEN

ERG

Y C

ON

SU

MP

TIO

N P

ER C

AP

ITA

(MM

BTU

)

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

230

210

190

170

150


11

ANNUAL ELECTRICIT Y DEMAND PER CAPITAFACTORNo.1

From 2009-2017, Hawai‘i saved 2,560 GWh of electricity, surpassing its goal by 50%. We are on track to meet the HCEI goal of 30% energy savings by 2030.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY IS OUR CHEAPEST FORM OF ENERGY

AVG EFFICIENCY PRICE OF ELECTRICITY

7-8¢/KWH 26-33¢/KWHAVG RETAIL PRICE OF ELECTRICITY

ENERGY EFFICIENCY ADVANCES EQUITYHawai‘i Energy, which administers energy efficiency initiatives on all islands except Kaua‘i, saves low-income residents money.

IN 2018, HAWAI‘I ENERGY:

• Retrofitted 1,000 city-owned apartments with more efficient showerheads, faucets, and lightbulbs, saving residents up to $160 and O‘ahu taxpayers $120,000 a year.

• Reached more than 750 underserved, small businesses with a direct install lighting program, generating over $28M in lifetime cost savings.

Annual electricity demand: Annual electricity sales by utilities from DBEDT’s MET plus annual customer-sited solar generation from utilities’ RPS Reports filed with the PUC. Target trend: Based on HCEI goal of a 4,300-GWh reduction by 2030. Baseline electricity demand for 2030 is forecast to be 14,300 GWh in the HCEI Scenario Analysis.

KW

H P

ER C

AP

ITA

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

7500

7000

6500

6000

5500

5000 TARGET TREND EXCEEDING TARGET NOT MEETING TARGET

EFFICIENCYOUTLOOK & OPPORTUNITIES

CODES AND STANDARDS OFFER BIG WINS FOR CONSUMERS AND THE CLIMATE

In 2019, Hawai‘i adopted state appliance energy efficiency standards,

WHICH CAN SAVE OVER

$500,000,000 IN ENERGY COSTS OVER 15 YEARS. Blue Planet Foundation was the lead advocate for the measure.

Changes—including more insulation, smarter controls, and lighting improvements—have been adopted by the state and the counties of Kaua‘i and Maui. Honolulu and Hawai‘i county code updates are still under consideration, as of September 2019.

ZERO ENERGY BUILDINGS (ZEBS) ARE THE FUTURE.They are net carbon neutral and may export clean energy to the grid. Hawai‘i already has at least 357 residential ZEBs, and Honolulu ranks 7th among U.S. cities for the number of ZEBs.

Updated building energy codes could save Hawai‘i residents and businesses

$1.4 BILLION IN ENERGY COSTS OVER 20 YEARS.

13

ISLAND-BY-ISLAND ELECTRICIT Y DEMANDFACTORNo.2

All islands show significant efficiency gains, though Kaua‘i’s electricity demand is plateauing.

WHERE DID THE SAVINGS COME FROM?COMMERCIALSAVINGS

RESIDENTIALSAVINGS

62% Lighting 25% Other 6% Appliances4% Solar Water Heaters3% Heating, Ventilation & AC

58% Lighting32% Custom7% Heating, Ventilation & AC4% Other

2017 ENERGY SAVINGS 60%

40%

Chart data developed using the same methods as the chart in Efficiency Factor No. 1.

ELEC

TRIC

ITY

DEM

AN

D P

ER P

ERS

ON

(KW

H)

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

8000

7500

7000

6500

6000

5500

5000

4500

4000 TARGET TREND EXCEEDING TARGET NOT MEETING TARGET

EFFICIENCY

COOLING

LIGHTING

MISCELLANEOUS

FOOD SERVICES

HVAC FANS

WATER HEATING

WE SHOULD INVEST MORE IN ENERGY EFFICIENCY. Most cost-effective energy efficiency opportunities, like lighting, have now been captured, so we need to dig deeper. But Hawai‘i invests less on saving energy than the national average. According to ACEEE’s Scorecard, Hawai‘i’s annual direct energy efficiency spending is $14.55 per capita, much lower than many other states.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY SPENDING PER CAPITAHAWAI‘I & TOP 10 STATES

DO

LLA

RS

($)

$14.55

$33.50 $35.82 $35.98$38.35 $38.67 $38.75

$43.03

$78.95

$91.11

$102.42

THE VISITOR INDUSTRY OFFERS SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITIES FOR

EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS.


42%24%21%

6%5%2%

120

100

80

60

40

20

0H I M D I A C A I D W A O R C T R I M A V T

TYPICAL ELECTRICITY USE FOR HOTELS

US MEDIAN

15

SOLAR WATER HEATINGFACTORNo.3

Hawai‘i law requires new homes to use solar water heating.

YET IN 2018, NEARLY HALF OF NEW SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES SIDESTEPPED SOLAR POWER BY REQUESTING VARIANCES TO INSTALL FOSSIL-FUEL GAS HEATERS. Natural gas is a fossil fuel with a climate footprint that can be larger than coal. Heating water shouldn’t cook the planet—state and county lawmakers should close this variance loophole.

Electric water heaters use more energy than any residential appliance, except air conditioners. According to Hawai‘i Energy, switching to a solar water heater can

SAVE UP TO 40% ON A RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY BILL (around $600 per year).

New single-family homes data: The number of new, private residential permits authorized, DBEDT’s Quarterly Construction Data Tables. Solar Water Heater Variance data, DBEDT’s Summary Chart of Solar Water Heater Variance Requests, as of June 6, 2019.

NE

W S

ING

LE F

AM

ILY

HO

MES

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

WITH SWH

WITH PV WATER HEATING OR OTHER SIGNIFICANT REASON FOR NO SWH

WITH GAS HEATERS

EFFICIENCYOUTLOOK & OPPORTUNITIES

Solar water heaters can help offset extra energy demand during the evening peak, when people often use hot water for washing and showering.

SOLAR WATER SYSTEMS ACT AS DE FACTO STORAGE, HOUSING THE SUN’S THERMAL ENERGY AS HOT WATER FOR HOURS.

AV

ERA

GE

DEM

AN

D (M

W)

TIME OF DAY

1200

1100

1000

900

800

700

600

50012a 1a 2a 3a 4a 5a 6a 7a 8a 9a 10a 11a 12p 1p 2p 3p 4p 5p 6p 7p 8p 9p 10p 11p 12a

GRID-INTERACTIVE SOLAR WATER HEATERS CAN PROVIDE A “DEMAND RESPONSE” SERVICE, turning on and off behind the scenes in response to the power grid’s needs. Demand response, or “DR,” can help when there is a sudden spike in load on the grid, or when supply drops due to cloud cover or a lull in the wind. See page 28 for more on DR.

DEMAND SUPPLY

DEMAND RESPONSE EVENTS TO REDUCE ELECTRICITY DEMAND

BELOW AVAILABLE SUPPLY

Data is hypothetical

17

PREVIOUSLY: B+

RENEWABLES C+GRADE

Total annual electricity generation: Electricity sent to system by electric utility companies per year (from DBEDT’s MET) and most customer-sited, grid-connected solar energy generation. This method is validated by comparing DBEDT’s O‘ahu data on electricity sent to system with Hawaiian Electric’s net load, as reported on an hourly basis to FERC (Form 714 filings). While the numbers do not match exactly, the difference is less than 3%. Total renewable energy generation per year: Hawaiian Electric and Annual RPS Reports. Target trend based on state’s RPS goals.

RENEWABLESPRIMARY METRIC

RENEWABLE ENERGY AS % OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATIONIn 2018, 22% of our electricity came from renewable energy sources, while we achieved a calculated RPS of 28%.

Total renewable energy generation in 2018 dipped slightly compared to the previous year. To reach our 100% renewable electricity goal by 2045, we need steady growth of about 3% per year.

This dip is largely due to the closure of Puna Geothermal Venture on Hawai‘i Island, which suffered damage from the 2018 Kīlauea eruption.

% R

ENE

WA

BLE

EN

ERG

Y

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

40%

30%

20%

10%

0% TARGET TREND EXCEEDING TARGET NOT MEETING TARGET

REPORTED RPS 30%

15%

10%

19

RENEWABLE GENERATING CAPACIT YFACTORNo.1

Despite growth in renewable generating capacity, the retirement of fossil fuel power plants isn’t happening fast enough.

78% OF HAWAI‘I’S ELECTRICITY IS STILL PRODUCED BY FOSSIL FUEL PLANTS, many of which are half-century-old, oil-fired steam generators.

RENEWABLE ENERGY CAPACITYThe majority of Hawai‘i’s renewable energy capacity is solar (62%), with biofuels, biomass, and waste-to-energy comprising a combined 20%, an increase of 30% since 2016.

Current and expected renewable watts: Hawaiian Electric Companies’ Power Facts and KIUC’s renewables webpage. Targets for 2022 and 2045: SWITCH 2.0 power system planning model, based on lowest cost scenario for 100% clean electricity with 100% electric vehicles by 2045. See page 43 for details of our population model.

RENEWABLE WATTS PER CAPITA0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500

SOLAR BIO/WASTE-TO-ENERGY WIND

HYDRO GEOTHERMAL TARGET

TARGET TOTAL RENEWABLE WATTS/CAPITA 2022

TARGET TOTAL RENEWABLE WATTS/CAPITA 2045

RENEWABLE WATTS/CAPITA 2018

EXPECTED RENEWABLE WATTS/CAPITA BY 2022

RENEWABLES

A MATH PROBLEMRenewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) require a specified percentage of the electricity sold by utilities to come from renewable resources. Hawai‘i’s RPS goal is 100% by 2045, with milestones along the way. But we need to improve how the RPS is calculated. In 2018, there was a 5.7% discrepancy between the calculated RPS and the actual renewable generation percentage. This formula can easily be fixed by the State legislature.

In 2018, Hawai‘i Gas launched the islands’ first renewable natural gas facility.

AN RPS FOR GAS CAN HELP SCALE THESE EFFORTS,unlocking innovation for additional renewable gas sources: wastewater treatment facilities, landfills, other waste sources, local crops, or renewable hydrogen.


561 MWand will increase Hawai‘i’s renewable energy capacity by about 25% per year (144% over the next four years).

THE FUTURE LOOKS BRIGHT

GOODBYE, COAL

OF CLEAN ENERGY CAPACITY IS IN THE PIPELINE

The last coal plant in the state is scheduled to close in 2022.

This will reduce Hawai‘i’s overall greenhouse gas emissions by 8%.

1.56MILLIONMETRIC

TONS

REDUCE EMISSIONS

BAD GAS?Natural gas is a fossil fuel. In 2018, only 3% of natural gas in Hawai‘i came from renewable sources. Without an RPS policy for gas, our state could remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades and fail to achieve its critical climate goals.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 20182015

% R

ENE

WA

BLE

EN

ERG

Y

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

EFFECTIVENESS OF RPS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY TREND

GAS (NO RPS)

ELECTRICITY (RPS)

21

SOLAR ENERGY TRENDSFACTORNo.2

Residential and commercial installations make up the bulk of solar PV capacity in Hawai‘i. The rate of growth in both has slowed dramatically over the last year.

% GROWTH OVER PREVIOUS YEARINSTALLED SOLAR CAPACITY BY TYPE

2015

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2016 2017 2018

RESIDENTIAL SOLAR PV

COMMERCIAL SOLAR PV

THE RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL SOLAR INDUSTRY IS SHRINKING DRAMATICALLY. According to the HSEA, the industry has lost more than 1,000 jobs over the past three years.

ACTIVECOMPANIES

10080604020

0

Residential and commercial solar PV capacity data: Hawaiian Electric’s Quarterly PV Updates, and KIUC’s 2018 Annual NEM Program Activity Summary (includes Schedule Q installations data). Utility-scale data: PUC’s 2018 Annual Report.

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

TOTAL UTILITY SCALE TOTAL RESIDENTIAL TOTAL COMMERCIAL

SO

LAR

CA

PAC

ITY

(MW

)

300250

15098

2008 2009 2010 2011

2012 2013 2014 2015

2016 2017 2018

RENEWABLESOUTLOOK & OPPORTUNITIES PEAK SOLAR DENTS ELECTRICITY SALES,

producing the “duck curve” in daily demand for electricity. In the daytime, when solar energy is abundant, demand for electricity from other sources is low. Our peak energy demand is in the evenings.

AV

ERA

GE

DEM

AN

D (M

W)

HOURS OF THE DAY

436.2 MW of solar capacity is in the pipeline, almost all utility-scale. In July 2019, the Hawaiian Electric Companies proposed a new solicitation for nearly 900 MW of renewable electricity—

THE LARGEST REQUEST FOR RENEWABLES EVER IN THE U.S.

1100

1000

900

800

700

600


23

KAUA‘I O‘AHU MAUI COUNTY HAWAI‘I

% OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLE GENERATION (2018)

36%PEAK: 79%2017: 47%

32%PEAK: 80%2017: 29%

19%PEAK: 58%2017: 18%

41%PEAK: 100%2017: 42%

RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION BY ISLANDFACTORNo.3

The utilities also track the peak renewable energy production for the year. These peaks are typically achieved on sunny, windy days when demand for electricity is low and renewable production is high.

Data from 2018 KIUC and Hawaiian Electric Companies’ RPS reports.

RENEWABLESOUTLOOK & OPPORTUNITIES

LOCALLY GROWNOn Maui, local biofuel company Pacific Biodiesel is growing sunflowers to collect their oil—supplementing their feedback of waste fats and oils from restaurants and other sources.

STARTUP PARADISEO‘ahu is a hotbed of smart-grid technology startups, with accelerators like Elemental Excelerator supporting successful ventures doing work in the islands, including Carbon Lighthouse and Shifted Energy.

GETTING GEOTHERMAL BACK ONLINEThe Kīlauea eruption forced the shutdown of the Puna geothermal energy power plant on Hawai‘i Island, wiping out 11% of its generation capacity in 2018. The utility had to bring older, polluting, diesel-fueled generators online to make up for lost power. It’s unclear if geothermal power will continue on Hawai‘i Island.

Kaua‘i is on track to produce 82% of its electricity from renewable energy by 2025. KIUC is the nation’s top utility for energy storage watts per customer, surpassing the next largest by nearly eight times the storage capacity.

THE GARDEN ISLE LEADS THE PACK

25

SMART GRIDPREVIOUSLY: D

D+GRADE

SMART GRIDPRIMARY METRIC

FLEXIWATTS“Flexiwatts” are a measure of flexible supply and demand that can be used to balance the grid. This chart combines flexibility from two sources.

DEMAND RESPONSE (DR) allows the utility or its customers to momentarily dial back energy for non-essential demands.

ENERGY STORAGE can soak up excess renewable energy, and then push that energy back onto the grid to serve peak demand.

EVs are excluded as they do not yet offer flexible grid services.

“Flexiwatts” are calculated by adding demand response (DR) and energy storage capacity, and reported as a percent of peak demand. DR and energy storage are estimated from Hawaiian Electric Key Performance Metrics, AOS reports, and KIUC’s Annual Service Reliability Reports, AOS reports, newsletters, annual reports, and communications with utilities. 2045 target is 30% of peak demand served by flexiwatts.

FLE

XIW

ATT

S C

APA

CIT

Y (%

OF

PE

AK

DEM

AN

D)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0% TARGET TREND EXCEEDING TARGET NOT MEETING TARGET

27

DEMAND RESPONSEFACTORNo.1

Demand Response (DR) allows the utility to “shift” electricity demand from times when renewable energy is scarce to when it is abundant.

As more variable renewable energy comes online, we need a high-tech approach to DR.

WE’RE TALKING:

“Smart” appliances that switch on and off in response to signals from the utility.

Advanced meters that measure and record usage data that help the utility understand and manage the flow of energy.

Intelligent controls that can alter when behind-the-meter batteries and EVs charge or send power back to the grid.

ENHANCES

GRIDRELIABILITY

REDUCES

OVERALL COSTS

HELPS TO

INTEGRATERENEWABLES

Demand response (DR) is shiftable customer load in MW from Hawaiian Electric’s DR spreadsheet. KIUC does not currently have a DR program. Target is 20% of peak load by 2045 as demand responsive (not including electric vehicles). Peak load data for 2045 is from HECO’s PSIP, Book 3, Appendix J, added to KIUC’s peak load. Kaua‘i’s peak load for 2045 is assumed to be 6% of O‘ahu’s, based on current ratios between the two.

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

SH

IFTA

BLE

CU

STO

MER

LO

AD

(MW

)


Two recent studies by UH Manoa scholars show that real-time pricing offers clear advantages. Coffman et al. (2018) conclude that by 2040, RTP could save ratepayers up to $335 annually, relative to flat rates.

-VS-

TIME-OF-USE (TOU) RATES Customers pay more for electricity during certain blocks of time, and less at others.

Prices and hours are set in advance.

REAL-TIME PRICING (RTP) RTP allows electric devices to respond immediately to flexible prices that vary based on system requirements.

Prices typically change on an hourly basis.(Some new technologies enable devices to respond to changing prices every five minutes.)

SMART GRIDOUTLOOK & OPPORTUNITIES

Hawai‘i’s regulators are

MOVING FORWARD ON PERFORMANCE-BASED REGULATION that better aligns utility business interests with the state’s clean energy goals and helps reduce costs. Under this framework, the utility could be incentivized to invest more in renewable energy, storage, and DR capacity.


ELEC

TRIC

ITY

PR

ICE

(CEN

TS/K

WH

)

30

25

20

15

10

TIME-OF-USE RATE REAL-TIME PRICING RATEData is hypothetical

29

ENERGY STORAGEFACTORNo.2

Residential battery use is surging. According to the 2018 U.S. Energy Storage Monitor Report by GTM Research, Hawai‘i ranks 2nd in residential storage installations, behind California.

2015 2016 2017 2018

# OF PERMITS ON O‘AHU FOR PV SYSTEMS WITH BATTERY STORAGE

2000

1500

1000

500

05 40

731

1,763

Energy storage capacity from Hawaiian Electric’s Key Performance Metrics and various other sources. This trendline underrepresents total storage available due to missing data on available capacity in behind-the-meter batteries. Target trend based on estimated 1,278 MW of non-EV storage installed by 2045: SWITCH 2.0 Power System Planning Model least-cost portfolio for O‘ahu, scaled for all Hawai‘i in proportion to total peak demand for the state.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

MEG

AW

ATT

S

TARGET TREND

EXCEEDING TARGET

NOT MEETING TARGET

BATTERIES ARE ESSENTIAL TO ACHIEVING OUR 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY GOAL.Lithium-ion batteries are by far the most popular, though storage can take many different forms.

Most distributed solar installations now come paired with batteries. They are maximizing the resiliency of communities by enabling homes and businesses to withstand power outages.Photo courtesy of Hawai‘i Energy Connection

SMART GRIDOUTLOOK & OPPORTUNITIES

In 2019, Hawaiian Electric Companies proposed solar-plus-storage projects with 1,048 MWh of battery storage for prices as low as 8¢/kWh. In comparison, our aging fossil-fuel power plants cost us an average of 15¢/kWh for electricity.

2013 2014 20152010 2011 2012 2016 2017 2018

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

KAUA‘I LEADS IN STORAGETHE SMART ELECTRIC POWER ALLIANCE RANKED KIUC THE TOP UTILITY IN 2017 FOR NEW STORAGE DEPLOYMENT PER CUSTOMER.

AS OF 2019, KAUA‘I BOASTS THE WORLD’S LARGEST BATTERY PLANT WITH SOLAR GENERATION. The Lāwa‘i Solar and Energy Storage facility provides about 11% of the island’s power needs, and as much as 40% of evening peak demand, all at the price of 11¢/kWh.

8¢/KWHSOLAR+STORAGE

VS 15¢/KWHFOSSIL FUELS

BATTERIES ARE GETTING CHEAPER. THAT’S A GAME-CHANGER FOR OUR CLEAN ENERGY FUTURE.

LITHIUM-ION BATTERY PRICE SURVEY RESULTS: VOLUME-WEIGHTED AVERAGE

BA

TTER

Y PA

CK

PR

ICE

(RE

AL

2018

$/K

WH

)

$1,160

$899

$707$650

$577

$373

$288$214

$176

31

ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EVS)WE’RE MOVING—SLOWLY—IN THE RIGHT DIRECTIONEVs can play a key role in our overall flexible energy system. While registrations in Hawai‘i are growing faster for EVs than gas cars, they still represent less than 1% of all registered passenger vehicles in the state.

YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH IN PASSENGER VEHICLE REGISTRATIONS

FACTORNo.3

On a per-capita basis, Hawai‘i ranks second only to California for EV adoption in the U.S.

Blue Planet Foundation is making it easier to buy an EV, thanks to the EV Expert Certification program and Find an EV Expert online tool. Over 70 car sales associates on O‘ahu, Maui, Kaua‘i, and Hawai‘i Island are certified with the EV knowledge they need to help potential customers.

2016-172015-16 2017-18

30%

20%

10%

0%

EV

NON-EV

EV registration data compiled by DBEDT from county data. New retail car and light vehicle registrations from State of Hawai‘i 2017 Databook Table 18.14 and HADA. Target trend is based on 100% EV registrations by 2045.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

EV

S A

S %

OF

NE

W L

IGH

T V

EHIC

LE R

EGIS

TRA

TIO

NS

TARGET TREND

EXCEEDING TARGET

NOT MEETING TARGET

SMART GRID

NON-MANAGED CHARGING

SMART CHARGING


SMART CHARGING EVs can help integrate solar energy at a lower cost, by shifting the demand for electricity (for charging) to the middle of the day, when there’s abundant sunshine.

WE NEED MORE WORKPLACE EV CHARGING STATIONS TO ENABLE SMART CHARGING.Most EV owners charge at home when they get back from work, increasing our evening peak electricity demand.

Updated building codes requiring new buildings to be “EV ready” can help create a charging network beyond single-family homes.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

SOLAR PRODUCTION

SOLAR PRODUCTION

EXPANDING ACCESSAct 142 (2019) aims to widen the reach of EV ownership by providing rebates for installing EV chargers at workplaces and multi-family residential buildings.

TOURISTS WANT TO PLUG IN, TOO56% of visitors reported they would probably have rented an EV if available, and 25% said they definitely would have rented an EV, according to a 2018 survey of tourists by Ulupono Initiative.

6050403020100

6050403020100

MW

DEM

AN

DM

W D

EMA

ND

HOURS OF THE DAY

HOURS OF THE DAY

33

ECONOMICSPREVIOUSLY: C+

B-GRADE

ECONOMICSPRIMARY METRIC

% OF INCOME SPENT ON FOSSIL FUELS

Data are presented as two-year moving average of fossil fuel expenditures as a percentage of disposable income in Hawai‘i. Data from the U.S. EIA and DBEDT’s MET. Disposable income is from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis “Disposable Personal Income Summary (AINC51).” Target trend is based on an assumed decline from the 1981 peak to zero in 2045.

FOS

SIL

FU

EL E

XP

END

ITU

RES

AS

% O

F D

ISP

OS

AB

LE IN

CO

ME

1970 1974 1978 1982 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%


35

HAWAI‘I RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICIT Y COSTSFACTORNo.1

AFTER A DIP IN 2014, RESIDENTIAL ELECTRICITY PRICES HAVE BEEN CREEPING BACK UP. Because Hawai‘i still relies on imported oil for most of its electricity, our energy costs track closely with the spikes and dips of fossil fuel prices.

Trends are six-month moving averages. Monthly residential electricity bills (residential electricity rates and sales by island) and crude oil prices from DBEDT’s MET. Number of housing units by island is estimated based on U.S. Census data by county. Maui county housing data is divided proportionate to resident population for islands of Molokai, Maui, and Lanai. Nominal prices converted to 2018 U.S. dollars using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index.

JAN 08 MAY 09 SEP 10 FEB 12 JUN 13 NOV 14 MAR 16 AUG 17 DEC 18

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

MO

NTH

LY C

OS

T ($

)

CRUDE OIL MOLOKAI O‘AHU HAWAI‘I

MAUI LANAI KAUA‘I

ECONOMICSOUTLOOK & OPPORTUNITIES

HAWAI‘I RESIDENTS STILL PAY THE HIGHEST MONTHLY ELECTRICITY BILLS IN THE U.S.Nearly 3x the national average.

Nationally, clean energy jobs outnumber fossil fuel jobs nearly three to one. Clean energy employers said they anticipate 6% job growth for 2019.

FOSSIL FUEL JOBS

CLEAN ENERGY JOBSAir conditioners and electric water heaters use the most electricity in homes. Adding a window A/C unit can increase residential electricity usage by 19%, meaning higher electric bills.

MORE RENEWABLES, INCREASED INVESTMENTS IN EFFICIENCY, SMARTER GRIDS, AND BETTER POLICIES TO SUPPORT CLEAN TRANSPORTATION WILL

POSITION HAWAI‘I AS A GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY LEADER.

AK

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

1.17M

3.26M

HI WA CA NY

AVERAGE RETAIL ¢/KWH OF ELECTRICITY, 2018

30¢

25¢

20¢

15¢

10¢

5¢

0¢

14.88¢16.70¢

7.98¢

19.64¢

29.22¢

Source: https://www.e2.org/reports/clean-jobs-america-2019/

NUMBER OF JOBS (MILLIONS)

US MEDIAN

37

RES

IDEN

TIA

L S

OLA

R

RES

IDEN

TIA

L S

OLA

R

UTI

LIT

Y S

OLA

R

UTI

LIT

Y S

OLA

R

UTI

LITY

SO

LAR

+

STO

RA

GE

WIN

D

WIN

D

BIO

& W

AS

TE-

TO-E

NER

GY

HY

DR

O

GEO

THER

MA

L

FUEL

CEL

L

FUEL

CEL

L

DIE

SEL

OIL

DIE

SEL

OIL

ENER

GY

EFFI

CIE

NC

Y

COMPARISON OF ENERGY COSTS BY FUEL T YPEFACTORNo.2

ECONOMICS ARE NO LONGER A BARRIER TO CLEAN ENERGY.Prices for wind and solar continue to decline sharply. Newly announced projects for utility-scale solar-plus-storage across the islands feature prices lower than the average cost of electricity generated from fossil sources.

Bars represent ranges from lowest to highest publicly known costs. Electricity costs from utility-scale renewable resources are compiled from Power Purchase Agreements reported in the PUC’s 2018 Annual Report; HSEO’s Renewable Energy Projects Directory; Hawaiian Electric Industries’ Fourth Quarter 2018 Financial Results and Outlook; and various news sources. Fuel oil and diesel rates for power generation are from DBEDT’s MET. Residential solar data are provided by HSEA; 90% of PV systems in 2018 included storage. Commercial rooftop solar is excluded due to lack of reliable data. Energy efficiency (lifetime cost of saved energy) data is from the PUC’s report to the 2019 Legislature on Hawai‘i’s energy efficiency portfolio standards.

PRE-2016 2016-2018PROPOSED/

IN DEVELOPMENT

0.30

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0

$/K

WH

Energy storage of all types and sizes will be necessary to take advantage of low-cost renewable energy.

This utility-scale battery on Molokai helps to smooth out the renewable energy on the island's small grid.Photo courtesy of Hawaiian Electric Companies.


SOLAR-PLUS-STORAGE IS THE BEST BET.Nationally and globally, solar-plus-storage is winning on price. In July 2019, Los Angeles announced the largest and cheapest solar-plus-storage project in the world, which will provide 7% of the city’s electrical demand at 1.997¢/kwh for solar energy and 1.3¢ for power from batteries. And a solar project in Brazil will sell power at 1.75¢/kWh.

THE BENEFITS OF CLEAN ENERGY SHOULD BE SHARED BY ALL.Hawai‘i’s GEMS program is providing the benefits of clean energy to those who cannot access it. By providing low-interest loans for solar and clean energy, GEMS has led to over 745 GWh of new energy or energy reduction over the life of the technologies. Nearly 80% of GEMS loans have gone to low- and moderate-income households.

ON-BILL FINANCING MAKES IT EASY.

GEMS now offers “on-bill financing” as part of its program. Participants see at least a 10% savings on their bill in the first month. Eligibility is based upon on-time payment of electric bills—not on credit, making it more accessible to low- and moderate-income residents.

HAWAI‘I IS WAITING FOR COMMUNITY SOLAR. Many residents, including renters and apartment dwellers, lack access to the benefits of rooftop renewables. In 2015, the legislature passed a law to start a community renewables program, similar to a community garden but for renewable energy. In September 2019, HECO announced its first project—Mililani Tech Solar I—which was already fully subscribed. The utility said it expects more such projects in 2020.

39

EVS VS. GASOLINE CARSFACTORNo.3

AN EV IS NOW CHEAPER TO OWN AND RUN THAN AN EQUIVALENT GASOLINE-FUELED VEHICLE. For homeowners with PV systems and batteries, charging an EV at home makes the most economical sense. However, in Honolulu, 42% of homes are in multi-unit buildings, which mostly lack solar panels and EV chargers.

We need policies and incentives that enable renters and condo owners to charge EVs using low-cost solar energy. We need more workplace chargers, so charging can occur when the sun is shining.

Prices inclusive of taxes and fees for 2019 Toyota Camry LE 4cyl 8AT and 2019 Nissan Leaf S Hatchback obtained from Honolulu dealerships. Leaf price includes $7,500 federal tax rebate. Finance payments based on 5% annual interest for 60 months. Maintenance costs: Camry - Edmunds.com’s “cost to own” estimates; Leaf - 40% below Camry’s, based on maintenance studies. Costs for gasoline, residential, and commercial electricity: 2019 Q1 averages from DBEDT’s MET. Fuel/electricity efficiency values: EPA Fuel Economy database. Residential solar-plus-storage costs: HSEA. Excluded: Insurance (assumed to be equivalent) and depreciation (future prices for second-hand EVs and battery replacement costs are changing rapidly).

2019 NISSAN LEAF 2019 TOYOTA CAMRY

$8000

$7000

$6000

$5000

$4000

$3000

$2000

$1000

$0

TOTA

L A

NN

UA

L C

OS

T

FINANCE PAYMENTS MAINTENANCE GAS/ELECTRICITY

CHARGING AT HOME W/

ROOFTOP SOLAR +

BATTERIES

CHARGING AT WORK W/ GRID POWER

CHARGING AT HOME W/ GRID POWER


MORE EV MODELS AND STYLES ARE ON THE HORIZON, INCLUDING TRUCKS!

Some values are estimates. Please visit InsideEVs for details. Dec. 2010 - Dec 2011 include estimates interpolated from Wikipedia. Prior to Dec 2010 includes 1,379 Tesla Roadsters as a baseline starting point.

0 50,000 100,000SALES

150,000 200,000

209,196

155,810

151,117

135,548

101,903

74,852

64,639

50,176

42,231

39,341

TESLA MODEL 3

CHEVROLET VOLT

TESLA MODEL S

NISSAN LEAF

TOYOTA PRIUS PHV/PRIME

TESLA MODEL X

FORD FUSION ENERGI

CHEVROLET BOLT EV

FORD C-MAX ENERGI

BMW i3

U.S. EV SALESThe Tesla Model 3 is the most

popular EV in the U.S.

JUNE 2019

TOTAL: 1,279,255

Hawai‘i won’t really make a dent in EV adoption until trucks are electrified. The Toyota Tacoma remains the most popular vehicle in the islands.

Good news – Ford announced in January 2019 it is working on both hybrid and full-battery electric versions of the F150. Plus, companies like UPS are working on electric delivery trucks.

41

ACEEE - American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy

AOS - Adequacy of Supply

CAFE - Corporate Average Fuel Economy

DBEDT - State of Hawai‘i Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism

DOE - United States Department of Energy

DoTax - State of Hawai‘i Department of Taxation

DR - Demand Response

EIA - Energy Information Administration

EPA - United States Environmental Protection Agency

EV - Electric Vehicle

FERC - Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

GEMS - Green Energy Market Securitization

GWh - Gigawatt hour

HCEI - Hawai‘i Clean Energy Initiative

HECO - Hawaiian Electric Company

HNL - Honolulu

HSEA - Hawai‘i Solar Energy Association

HSEO - Hawai‘i State Energy Office

KIUC - Kaua‘i Island Utility Cooperative

kW - Kilowatt

kWh - Kilowatt hour

LED - Light Emitting Diode

NEM - Net Energy Metering

MET - DBEDT’s Monthly Energy Trends data

MPG - Miles per Gallon

MW - Megawatt

PSIP - Power Supply Improvement Plan

PUC - Hawai‘i Public Utilities Commission

PV - Photovoltaic

RPS - Renewable Portfolio Standard

RTP - Real-Time Pricing

STCH - Sustainable Transportation Coalition of Hawai‘i

SWH - Solar Water Heating

TOU - Time of Use

UH - University of Hawai‘i

VMT - Vehicle Miles Traveled

ZEB - Zero Emission Buildings

GLOSSARY

SEVERAL METRICS IN THIS REPORT CARD ARE REPORTED ON A PER CAPITA BASIS.

POPULATION DATA

De facto population is the resident population (including military) from the 2017 State of Hawai‘i Data Book combined with average daily visitor census data from DBEDT.

2018-2030 annual resident and visitor populations are calculated using growth rates in DBEDT’s (2018) Population and Economic Projections for the State of Hawai‘i to 2045.

BLUE PLANET FOUNDATION

43

HAWAI‘I LEADS THE WAY TO 100%In 2015, we became the first state to mandate 100% renewable energy. Since then, others have followed with their own 100% commitments.

2018

CALIFORNIA100% CARBON-FREE BY 2045

2019

NEW MEXICO100% CARBON-FREE BY 2045

2019

PUERTO RICO100% RENEWABLE BY 2050

U.S. STATES/TERRITORIES WITH 100% RENEWABLE OR

CARBON-FREE TARGETS

2019

NEVADA100% CARBON-FREE BY 2050

2019

WASHINGTON100% CARBON-FREE BY 2045

2019

NEW YORK100% CARBON-FREE BY 2040

Henk Rogers Chair

Ernest Nishizaki Vice Chair

Lorraine Akiba Secretary

Wallace Tsuha Treasurer

Gov. George Ariyoshi

Maxine Burkett

Christine Camp

Kyle Datta

John Dean

Dr. Virginia Hinshaw

Andrew Rosen

Colin Yost

MISSION

To clear the path for 100% clean energy.VISION

A world of abundant, renewable energy that sustains all life on Earth.

BOARD OF DIRECTORS

The information in this report card generally reflects our clean energy progress through 2018. Data for some factors have been updated into 2019. More information on each data source is provided with each metric. Blue Planet Foundation cannot warrant the accuracy and timeliness of those data sources, and we are always on the lookout for comprehensive sources of information on our energy consumption and resources.

We welcome suggestions on how to make the next report card update as interesting and accurate as possible.

Please email: [email protected]

Design byWall-to-Wall Studios Tsuha Foundation

The Energy Report Card is generously supported by the Tsuha Foundation

New research and updates by Kamal Kapadia

View the report card online at HawaiiEnergyReportCard.com

MAHALO

BLUE PLANET FOUNDATION

45

55 Merchant Street, 17th Floor, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96813 • (808) 954-6161

blueplanetfoundation.org

TSUHA FOUNDATION

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