Havets nåvåförändringar observationsfakta mot IPCC-modeller

Nils-Axel Mörner

Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden

morner@pog.nu

President INQUA Com. on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution (1999-2003) Leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project (2000-2009+) Co-ordinator INTAS project on Geomagnetism and Climate (1997-2003)

The Golden Condrite of Merit, 2008, Algarve University: “for his contribution to our understanding of sea level change”

Förändringar har Fördelar och Nackdelar

det gäller i högsta grad för Global Warming

Men inget gott kan komma från en snabb stigning av havsytan

Därför ar dettaDet enda Verkliga Hotet

Fast i sanning, Så Helt Fel !

quod erat demonstrandum

Det är det här det handlar om

Observationsfakta eller Modeldata

1.

maximal isavsmältning

och global sea level

De glaciärer som finns idag kan aldrig smälta fortare än

istidens enorma ismassor

Smältningen av istidens glaciärer tog 10,000 år

Och havsytan steg då med 10 mm/år (1 m/100 år)

Vilket sätter en yttersta gräns för en möjlig havsytestigning idag

The rate of glacial eustatic rise after LGM was ~10 mm/yr and sets the ultimate limit of possible sea level changes in the present century (yellow).

COMPARE:

Mörner, 1991

~0.0

Mörner, 1996

<+10 cm

INQUA, 2000

+10 ±10 cm

Mörner, 2004

+5 ±15 cm

Mörner, 2010

+5–7 ±10 cm

IPCC is coming down

with time !

2.

Thermal Expansion

3.

Sea Level Changes

OBSERVATIONAL FACTSNumerous interacting factors control the stability of the

shoreline

The combined observational records (in mm/year) for the last 300 years.It shows variations – ups and downs – but no trend.

For year 2100, INQUA gives predictions in line with this record,whilst the IPCC scenarios lie far above – way off – observational data

4. Nature’s own observational records

5.

The Maldives

Dömd att översvämmas om 50-100 år

The new sea level curve of the Maldives recording a seven oscillations

driven by the redistribution of ocean water masses (from Mörner, 2007)

Fen-to-lake records on the island of

Goidhoo

~1970

1790

~1700

Queen’s Bath(4) +0.6 m ~400 BP

(3) +20-30 cm >1970

(2) Present HTL

(1) Present MTL

At ~1970

Sea Level fell some 20 cm

Causing erosion

with sand deposition

outward, downward

Leaving an old fossil shore and

an old overgrewing surface of

grey weathered corals.

The present shore

has remained stable

for ~30 years

The two laked on Goudhoo dried up

Platform >1970

Fall ~1970

Platform <1970

Shore on map from 1922

Platform >1970

Sea level changes in the Maldives from 1500 to 2009 and 2100

No reasons for any alarm. Sea level has been stable for the last 30 years.

Maximum future change may be a return to a pre-1970 level

President in water

Cabinet under water

Past-Present-Future sea level changes no threat at all !

6.

Bangladesh

an area cursed by repeated flooding and doomed to experience

terrible flooding disasters in the near future

Coastal Erosion ! Sea is Rising !

The IPCCers say

kusterosion – ja

men – ingen havsytestigning

vilket klart framgår av trädens rötter som sprider sig horisontellt

på precis samma nivå som i skogen bakom

The original clay surface was just above the horizontal roots

The wreck is stranded at HTL with a storm beach behind.

This suggests a slight lowering with respect to the delta surface

Sea Level Changes in Bangladesh

There is no global sea level rise in Bangladesh

INDIA

BANGLADESH

MALDIVES

7.

Tuvalu and Vanuatu

Both island-groups claimed already to be in the process of becoming flooded

Tuvalu – tide gauge record

8 years of slow rise (installation subsidence?) is followed by 22 years of stability – i.e. no sea level rise

the 3 low levels represent ENSO-events

Vanuatu, another notorious site of ”flooding”,

shows, in fact, no sign of any ongoing sea level rise

The Vanuatu News Port Vila Press Online, December 2005 declaired that

”a small community living on Vanuatu has had to be formally moved out of harms”

as an effect of the proposed sea level rise and flooding concept.

8

Venice - a good test site

Located in the slowly subsiding Po delta any sea level rise or acceleration

would be easily detected

Venice, built on delta deposits, experiences a long-term subsidence (blue line).Sea level (pink) fluctuated around this line from 1870 to 1970.

No eustatic sea level rise is seen,and from 1970 there even is a sea level lowering recorded

9.

North-west Europe

land subsidence long the North Sea coasts and the periphery of uplift in the Kategatt Sea

Korsör Coxhaven Amsterdam

Eustatic curve 1680-1970 (för NW Europa)

From 1840 t0 1940 sea level rose by 11 cm – blue line the Earth’s rate of rotation (LOD) ≈ 10 cm – green line

COXAHVEN 160 YEARS TIDE-GAUGE RECORD

A mean-sinosidal relative sea level rise is composed of a long-term subsidence (red) of ~1.4 mm/year and a sinosoidal eustatic rise up to 1960 followed by a slight lowering

Korsör ligger på nollpunkten för landhöjningen undersenaste 8000 åren. Här skulle sann eustasy råda (that is, if the instrument is stably located, which is not at all certain)

Vad ser vi? antingen 7,5 cm stigning 1895-2005 (svart linje) eller en segmenterad utan trend (red)

ingem acceleration I sent tid (snarare motsatsen)

10.

Satellite Altimetry

A wonderful new tool to measure the ocean level

but from where does the tilt come?

In 2000

Satellite altimetry – after all physical corrections – showedNO rising trend

Just a variability around a zero level (blue) + a major ENSO event (yellow).

This data set was presented on the TOPEX/POSEIDON web-page, in their publications, and used by me in my paper in Global and Planetary Changes, vol. 40, 2004, p. 49-54

In 2003

a totally new record appeared Now there was a trend of 2.3 mm/year.This trend is inferrend – not measured

Satellite Altimetry

-0.12 ±0.06 mm/yr ––– +1.9 ±0.9 mm/ye

Satellit kartan stämmer inte med faktiska platsobservationen !

Satellite Altimetry

Den visar en klar dominans för the 18.6 years tidal cycle runt en stabil noll-nivå

±0 eller +3

50 havsytedata från French Guiana-Surinam

Satellite altimitry ger en stigning på ~3 mm/år

Det finns ett klart budskap i den skillnaden ! Ett värde måste vara fel och det kan ju inte vara observationen.

Om havet skulle stiga snabbt, så skulle Jorden – enligt lage om vridmomen – uppvisa en deceleration (nerbromsning)

Så är INTE fallet – Varför det?

för att havet INTE stiger – förstås

CONCLUSIONS No sea level rise recorded: – in the Maldives – in Tuvalu – in Vanuatu – in Bangladesh – in French Guiana – in Venice

– in NW Europe Thermal expansion – is small <10 cm – zero at shore Satellite Altimetry – records no or just a small rise

CONCLUSIONS the observational records (curve A) is correct the IPCC models (curves B-C)

are wrong

+5 cm ±15 cm

utan ett översvämningsscenariofinns det inte mycket hot kvar i IPCC

tigern har tappat sina tänder

kanske det aldrig var någon riktig tigerbara en uppblåst balongdocka

about 200 peer-reviewed papers on Sea Level & Climate

Mörner, N.-A., 2007

The Greatest Lie Ever Told

1st ed, 2007, 2nd ed. 2009, 3rd in 2010, 20 pp.

säljes för 10 Euroeller 8 NOK

och vart är vi på väg?

mot en Varmare Jord (som IPCC påstår) eller mot en Kallare Jord (som

Solen anger)

The Gulf Stream at Solar Maxima (left) with Earth deceleration

The Gulf Streamat Solar Minima (right)with Earth acceleration

Abdassamatov, 2010

Sunspot low – Solar Minimum Little Ice Age climate condition

SOLAR Minimum and

Little Ice Age conditions by year

2040

Don’t worry, my son, the present is a reflection of the past nothing more, nothing less – just the same old story

och äntligen nära

The End

Det är så mycket lögner och överdrifter kopplade till “Global Warming”

Människor kan uppföra sig så

men träd ljuger inte !

The Maldives Bangladesh

The Maldives the tree has a delicate position

(at least since the 1940s) the slightest sea level rise

would have destroyed it. This indicates: No Sea Level Rise in 50 years

Bangladesh The tree trunks indicate a significant coastal erosion The horizontal roots indicate the same growth level as in the forest behind

This indicates: No Sea Level Rise !

sniffar, observerar, dokumenterar

Vi ljuger inte heller

samma gamla historia – lite upp och lite ner

men absolut ingen Global Översvämning och självfallet aldrig i Oslo med stark landhöjning