harvard university, july 26 th , 2012

Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“ of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of Germany

Dr. Jörg Dräger

Harvard University, July 26th, 2012

The „PISA shock“ of 2001 made education an issue of national interest and triggered major policy changes

Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012

PISA shock2001

Tackling increasing challenges: a new diversity in German schools

Structural policy reform:no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces

New transparency and empiricism:competence standards and accountability

Germany below

average in all skills dimensions

Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum

reading skills

Impressive improve-

ments

But also: reasonable

fear of throwbacks and old sloppiness

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PISA ended a period of complacency and self-confidencein Germany

Dr. Jörg Dräger - July 26th, 2012 Seite 3

PISA shock2001





reading skills

Impressive improve-

ments



Germany below


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Ideology instead of accountability: German educational policy has a difficult history with transparency


Is the new age of trans-

parencyreally

sustainable?

1960-

1970

1970 -

2000

2000-

2010/12

Two international comparative studies on student achievements show very problematic results for

Germany. As a reaction, politics quits such studies.

30 year of ideology (and no facts) in education: excellence vs. equity,

one-tiered vs. multi-tiered school system, …

PISA ends a period of ideology and complacency,followed by an empirical and pragmatic approach

to educational reforms

Positive reviews: PISA has done more for education in Germany than 30 years of ideological discussions before


„PISA stopped the complacency and self-confidence, with which Germany had looked at its education system for too long.“

Der SPIEGEL, 2010

„Since PISA, education is no hullabaloo anymore.“ Baumert, 2011

„Germany has become a role model for cooperation between academia and politics.“

Klieme et al., 2010

Increasing challenges for education in Germany: Changes in society lead to an unprecedented classroom diversity


PISA shock2001




Germany below



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Demographics, migration and parents put increasing challenges on the German education system

Demographics: number of students (and schools) heavily shrinks

Migration: Germany becomes (much more) diverse

Parental will: parents want all children to go to grammar

school


Growing diversity means additional reform pressure for the German education system

Relative change in numbers of 10- to 15-year-old children (2009 to 2025)

legend: changes in percent

Source: Bildung in Deutschland 2010, www.wegweiser-kommune.de


Demographics: Number of students shrinks by 15% – in some West German regions even by up to 40%

School mergers

–classroom diversity is increasing

über 25 Jahre 0-5 Jahre

34 %

16 %

+ 112%

Source: Mikrozensus 2007


Germany: share of population with migration background

Frankfurt: almost three out of four newborns with migration backgrund

Source: Bildung in Deutschland 2010, Mikrozensus

Migration: Germany is today an immigration country – one third of the youngest with migration background

Classroom diversity is increasing

72%


Parental will: The grammar school (Gymnasium) becomes the comprehensive school of the middle class

students at grammar schools as share of all students in class 8 (in percent)

Local grammar

school share of up to 80%

–classroom diversity is increasing

The PISA shock has opened a window for some major structural policy reforms in Germany over the last decade


PISA shock2001




Germany below



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ECEC, full-day schools, inclusion, two-tier schooling: Germany has started a wide ranging reform


Two-tiered schooling as a standard

Structural changes in

German education

Expanding full-day schooling Commitment to inclusive education

Expanding Early Childhood Education

2001

58 %

2011

88 %

Expanding quality Early Childhood Education: Massive in-vestments and new legal entitlement, but a long way to go


Dynamic expansion, but legal right for child daycare (under 3 ys.) in

2013 very difficult to meet (demand 50%, today‘s supply 25%)

Source: Mikrozensus 2001, Bertelsmann Stiftung: Länderreport Frühkindliche Bildungssysteme 2011

under-three-year olds (2001-2011): Institutional daycare has tripled

Better Quality (2006-2011):child-staff ratio down to 4.7 from 6.5

2001

58 %

2011

88 %

three-year olds in daycare (Germany)

Two-tiered schooling as a standard: Germany‘s traditional multi-tiered schooling system is being dissolved


Decline of Hauptschulen leads to a new system of Gymnasium (grammar school, 12 years) and

one additional type of secondary school (13 years).

%

Pupils at Hauptschulen (8th grade)

Pupils allowed tostudy at HEI

Educational expansion in Germany

Development 1960-2010

Hauptschule: 72 % to 18 %

Access to Higher Education: 6 % to 48 %

Expanding full-day schooling: Very dynamic expansion,but supply still lags far behind actual demand


numbers in percent

growth rate

Share of all pupils in full-day schoolingAttendance rate

full-day schooling

Germany: 28 %

Sweden: 100 %

USA: 100 %

Canada: 100 %

Dynamic expansion with huge regional disparities,

but Germany is still far behind international

standards and demand

Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2012

Commitment to inclusive education: About half a millionchildren with special needs may attend regular schooling


On average two special need children per regular class

– Need for new didactics

(individual support)Implementing UN convention leads to dissolution of special needs schooling in Germany

485.418 special needs pupils

3.306 special need schools

9 types of special support

Toda

yTo

mor

row

New transparency and empiricism: The PISA shock triggered an unseen collaboration of politics and academia


PISA shock2001




Germany below



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PISA has brought standards and accountability into German education


National competence standards (since 2004)

Output-oriented competence standards for grades 4, 9 and 10

developed by academia,enacted by politics

institutionalized in 2010

National education report (since 2006)

Bi-yearly indicator-based monitoring by an expert consortium of indepen-

dent academics and commissioned by politics

PISA follow up

Regular participation in international study, but

since 2006 no intra-German comparison anymore (due to self control of the Länder)

Regulated transparency: Politics tends to keep data under control

Looking at the results: Germany has experienced a decade of impressive educational improvements


PISA shock2001




Germany below



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Germany is not Germany: Average science performanceof the 16 German Länder differs by nearly 60 points


Average science competence gap of two school years between Saxony and Bremen

Improvements in all dimensions: Germany has reached the OECD average in reading, exceeded in maths and science


Significant improvements in all skills dimensions over the last decade:

13 points in reading, 23 points in maths and science (=one school year)

Source: PISA 2009 Results: Learning Trends, simplified illustration

Reading Mathematics Science

2000

2009OECD

Average

BelowAverage

AboveAverage

2000

2009

2000

2009

Germany‘s success story stems from closing the gap – but unfortunately at the cost of the best


Disparities have decreased, but are still significant –Remarkable improvements from the bottom, stagnancy at the top

impr

ovem

ent f

rom

200

0 to

200

6 (P

ISA

poin

ts)

reading skills 2000 (PISA points)

!

Formerly weak Länder succeed Overall skills disparities decrease

PISA 2009 Results: Learning TrendsSource: Wössmann, 2012

reading skills

Social dependency has significantly decreased – Germany‘s socio-economic gradient now at OECD average


Coming from lag-end in 2000, Germany‘s social-economic gradient has now reached OECD average

social dependency

Migration(reading competence 2000-2009):

students with migration background (+27 points) have made up for one

school year (others: +4)

Family background (reading competence 2000-2009):

working-class children have significantly

improved, while upper social class perfor-mance decreased

Source: Klieme et al., 2010


Share of students below minimum reading skills (PISA)

Source: PISA 2000 and 2009

Germany USA Canada Finland Korea0

5

10

15

20

25 22.6

17.9

9.6

7.05.8

18.5 17.6

10.3

8.1

5.8

2000 2009

perc

ent

But the most serious problem is still to be solved: One out of five children is lost to inadequate education in Germany

Significant progress, but nearly one in five teenagers still cannot properly read (focus: boys with migration

background)


Klasse 9a: Gute Bildung ist möglich

Conclusion: Though it was not planned, Germany hasmoved piece by piece towards a whole-system reform

PISA triggered (new) transparency

More Lear-ning Time (ECEC + full-day school)

Focus on outcome/

performance

Inclu-sive edu-

cation

Individualized support for ALL children

Strong public and political attention

2-tiered school

structure

Þ improved structures & opportunities

Piece by piece towards a whole-system reform

Þ capacity building

Þ standards&

autonomy


Klasse 9a: Gute Bildung ist möglich

Fear: Losing transparency again would endanger the whole system’s stability

Less Transparency

More Learning

Time (ECEC + full-day)Focus on

outcome/

performance

Inclu-sive edu-

cation

Individualized support for ALL children

Decreasing public and political attention

2-tiered school structure

Þ Danger of wasted money (expensive

unmeasured measures)

Well-meant, but not well-

done reform pieces

Þ Danger of arbitrariness

Dangerous self-control of the Länder

• most-problematic areas not measured (Haupt-schulen, special need schools)

• no comparison between Länder anymore (exit from PISA-E)

• scientists without access to PISA data

Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“ of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of Germany

Dr. Jörg Dräger

Harvard University, July 26th, 2012

harvard university, july 26 th , 2012

Documents

pisa shock2001tackling

jrg drger accountability

german education system

case of germany

increasing challenges

german educational policy

new diversity

puzzle piecesnew transparency