harry keys: tongariro alpine crossing

1 Copyright photograph by NZ Herald

Cities on Volcanoes ConferenceYogayakarta, INDONESIA

Paul Dawson photo

Sustainable Summits 2016, Aoraki Mt Cook National Park, 7-11 AugustHarry Keys ([email protected])

Department of Conservation

DOC-2848662

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Red Crater 1886 m

Tongariro 1961 m

Emerald Lakes

Blue Lake/Rangihiroa's Mirror



Ngauruhoe last erupted 1974-77

Red Crater last erupted 1934

Te Maari last erupted 2012Mangatepopo carpark & Roadend

To Ketetahi Roadend

Alpine area subject to severe weather year round

3 historically active volcanic vents

Centre of North island, very accessible

Visitor use peaks over summer

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A short history of the CrossingLeft: 1908 tourist group at Emerald Lakes - few people,

no managementRight: Now many people, management important,

moving towards co-management with iwi

2013 opening ceremony after eruptions

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Estimated numbers on the Crossing

10,000

Spot counts & hut surveys from 1992

Early 1990s: international visitors exceed NZers

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1992: 11,000 people: 20% of 48,000 total on the19 km track

2015: 109,000: 80% of 140,000 total on the 20 km track

Estimated numbers 1950-2011, Bamford 2014

GFC eruption

?

Growth can’t continue like this: numbers and/or experience are likely to decline unless some kind of new management is introduced and effective

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Economic benefits

• Large number of people• Almost 90% stay 1 or 2 nights in local districts • $200/day spent on accommodation & transport

per TNP summer visitor ($20 million/year)• Strong growth (9%/year, average compound rate)• 80-90% use buses & rental vehicles• 21 transport concessions; 22 guiding concessions

mostly local• >50 bus and rental car companies used• Increased number of school/youth visits &

benefits from education

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• 46% 20-29 years, 22% 30-39; strong social media use

• International 76% (range 70-80%, trend appears to have weakened)

• No reduction in numbers of NZers

• Domestic (2012): AKL 43%, Wgtn 12%, South Is 3%

• Gender: even ratio• Party size: 1 =13%, 2 =46%,

3-4 =24%• 60% 0-1 hike/year of this type

Demographics etcBased on 6 visitor surveys

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Social and recreational benefits

“strong benefits”, “clear majority satisfied” [similar to expectations], “huge sense of achievement” Angus & Assoc 2012, Blaschke & Whitney 2007

Helping meet DOCs 2025 goals: 50% international visitors visit a national park;90% of New Zealanders enriched by our nature

2012 Q: What did you most enjoy?

9 Jimmy Johnson photo

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Visitor concerns2012 survey question: What did you least enjoy?

Bubs Smith photo



Main management concerns & issues1. cost per person (“just need funding”)

Track work ($3 pp)

Rescue, SAR & volcanic risk management – visitor safety ($2 pp)

Toilets/waste-management ($1.50 pp)

Road maintenance Concession management

2. challenge to solve Crowding on track at times &

maintaining satisfaction Protecting cultural values & identity Transport & car parking Effective planning/consultation Top: DOC;

Bottom: Paul Carr



Track management/erosion controlstandard solutions, some debate

Vulnerable volcanic soils (trampling & erosion) Restoration, upgrades & track

deviations (up to $250/metre) Maintenance $3.50/m (DOC model) Limits to upgrade options in mountains Alternative tracks, concerns & efficacy



Safety & risk management and the TAC visitor

• Limited understanding of personal responsibility - “they’d close the track if it wasn’t safe”

• Most visitors are reasonably prepared but notable exceptions

• Information available but not always accessed/received

• Iwi hold a duty of care -kaitiakitanga

• No trauma fatalities for 5 years but several near-misses (hypothermia, slips, rockfall, Aug 2012 eruption)

• Many rescues, well developed public (free) system Heading to Mt Doom (barefoot like

Frodo!) & about to get lost in cloud. DOC photo

Babies on the TAC - first baby rescue 2016. DOC photo

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• A mass fatality event in TNP will most likely be due to an “unheralded” eruption

• Unmitigated: 1 event / 10-19 years • If mitigation effective: 1 event / 90-

100 yrs• Good volcanic warning system but

maintaining readiness is a concern

• Concessionaire contribution?• Accept that eruptions disrupt

visitor use & commercial activityTop: Herb Spannagl; bottom: Cant. Uni

Risk management in active volcanic areas

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噴石（奥の院）Ontake eruption 2014: 58 hikers killed (5 missing) most of them by flying rocks. Similar eruption to Tongariro 2012, so many lessons (e.g. need for effective communications & warnings)



Toilets

“Dissatisfaction rates relatively high” Angus Assoc 2012 (annual numbers c 85,000)

Plan to double number of toilet pans and locations in 2 years & reduce waste volume. CAPEX $500,000

Difficult siting decisions to minimise impact on scenic, cultural & aesthetic values

Personal poo kits practical?

Top: DOC; bottom: Bubs Smith

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2005: “Integrated use limits” aka “carrying capacity” identified: exceeded when >550-600 people-counts/day2012: number confirmed≥ 600 counts/day = negative perceptions, sense of crowding, detracts from experience20% of survey days in 2005 had ≥600 counts34% in 2012 had ≥600 55% in Jan-April 2016 had ≥600 3 days with ≥2000 counts in 2016≈ 40% of NZ Ranker reviewers now mention crowding etc

Crowding perceptions

Peak day queue up Red Crater ridge: at the chain section requested by concessionaires



Over-use/over-crowding needs multi-facetted solution:

Staggering of start times often suggested (since 1990s): it’s occurring but problem not solved

Booking or quota system or user-charge: taxpayer discount

Transport management (most visitors use concession transport)

Concession management – legal constraints (but less when environment & safety issues?)

Planning process-integrity of Management Plan process, more focused consultation, other govt funding

2005

2012

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Suggested revision of goals “We have a responsibility to ensure people can enjoy our wild places while protecting the integrity of the environment” Hon.

Maggie Barry, Minister of Conservation, SS booklet1. Limit numbers: ensure the world-

class visitor experience is protected and provides ongoing economic benefits to tangata whenua and other local communities

2. Manage transport logistics: work with concessionaires to ensure their businesses assist with goal 1

3. Optimise risk management: pay more heed to the alpine volcanic environment & visitor responsibility

4. Protect values: cherish Tongariro National Park World Heritage Area

5. Emphasise TAC’s value: bring together & unify mountain communities Top: Bubs Smith; bottom: DOC

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Annual Ketetahi totals (counter100073031 corrected for missingdata) for non-eruption episodeyears

Annual Ketetahi totals directlyaffected by eruption episodecorrected for missing March 2012data

Synthetic Ketetahi totals duringeruption episode

Ketetahi Model with compoundgrowth rate of 8.6%

Projected Ketetahi totals with 6%compound average growth rate(MBIE forecast to 2020)

International Visitor arrivals (MBIE)

International visitor arrival forecast(MBIE 2016, with compoundaverage growth rate of 6%)

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Visitor use peaks in summer- raw counter data on TAC

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TAC rescue operations: police-organized (≈ 70% of total). Average 2x10-4 ops/person

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Crowding: examined in 1993-96, 2005 & 2012 surveys

2005

2012

2015/16 Bubs Smith photos

• Red Crater area most crowding reported

• Ketetahi roadend largest increase



Quote from Blaschke & Whitney 2007• Currently, transport concessions do not impose any limits on the number of

walkers able to be carried, so that on busy days transport operators have unlimited discretion to run additional busloads. Comments made during the focus group discussions identified a number of further issues with the concession process. Allegations and anecdotal information were provided concerning conditions of concessions not being adhered to, under-reporting of numbers of walkers carried, and the presence of non-authorised operators within the park providing transport services and in some cases guiding services to significant numbers of walkers.

• DOC’s intention for the concession system is that it “helps the Department to ensure that the various concession activities are compatible with the primary aim of protecting the land and other resources. It also helps to make sure that services and facilities provided for visitors are appropriate, of a suitable standard and that other activities do not conflict with visitor enjoyment.” (http://www.doc.govt.nz/About-DOC/Concessions/index.asp).

• It would be difficult to argue that the current system for transport concessions for the Crossing achieves this stated intention.

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What they say about the TAC

• DOC brochure 1990s: “Often described as the best one day walk in NZ”

• Lonely Planet: “one of the world’s greatest one-day hikes”

• Wikipedia: “among the most popular day hikes in the country”

• Trip Advisor: Rating 5*, 1056 reviews (85% excellent, 12% VG, 0.2% terrible)

• NZ Rankers: 90%*, 788 reviews• *caution with these stats

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Eruption on TAC

The TAC on the NZ risk landscape



TAC with existing & proposed toilet sites

Angus Associates 2012

Additional slides for reference

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Summary in Bamford 2014:Currently the Department of Conservation and Ngati

Hikairo Ki Tongariro are assessing their options forsustainably managing the TAC. Their 5 objectives are:

1. Develop and future-proof the TAC as a sustainable world-class visitor experience;

2. Increase knowledge, respect and understanding of the values of Tongariro National Park (TNP);

3. Use the TAC to promote and grow the region(s) and to ensure that it contributes to the economic sustainability of local communities;

4. Provide economic opportunities and resources for the development of Ngati Hikairo ki Tongariro;

5. Use the TAC to bring together and unify mountain communities.

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History of the CrossingPre 1900s: trails to Ketetahi Springs (medicinal & cultural) & birding Early 1900s: bridle trail Papakai over to Waihohonu Hut/coach rd 1920s-40s: tramways built for logging in Ketetahi bush

1950s & 60s: Park develops track with tramping club assistance 1960s-early 90s: “Tongariro Crossing” track restoration & upgrades:

Summer Programme crossing & Ketetahi Springs very popular1986: 1st public transport

From 1993: OSH/access/fee option negotiations with Ketetahi Trust Early 1990s: crowding concerns raised2007: “Alpine” added to name because of safety concerns2008 & 2011: deviations circumventing eroded area & Ketetahi land 2012-13: eruption episode prevents access to full TAC until May

Towards co-management with iwi in last 20 years

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Visitor surveys and other references• Angus & Associates 2012• Bamford 2014• Blaschke & Whitney 2007• Coomber & Leonard 2005• Dhellemmes 2016• Gibson 1996• Keys, Williams and Leonard 2014• Olsen 2001• Slee and Curtis 1993• Visitor countersAcknowledgements to Bubs Smith and other photographers, DOC & police colleagues, GNS Science and Canterbury University

harry keys: tongariro alpine crossing

Environment