Hard Times?Trends in the economy, vacancies and

occupations

Tony Wilson & Paul BivandCentre for Economic & Social Inclusion

Toughest jobs market for a generation

Back in 2010, consensus was return to trend growth...

Since then things have got worse – new forecasts are much weaker...

And even those may be optimistic!

Result: 300,000 fewer jobs forecast now than previously for 2011-15

Which means more people on JSA – up to 350,000 more than expected

And while new vacancies have come back up...

They’re barely keeping pace with new claimants...

And more competition means the stock of vacancies is in the doldrums

We think that job outcomes and GDP follow each other

-2.5%-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

GD

P qu

arte

rly c

hang

e

Job

outc

ome

annu

al ch

ange

Lone Parents People with a Health Condition or DisabilityOther Inactive customers Long-term unemployedShort term unemployed GDP quarterly change

So:

• Hard times

• And far tougher than when JCP and Work Programme budgets were set

JCP: seeing more people reaching long-term unemployment

Work Programme: DWP changing views

Already seeing this in referrals June to January 2012 – up 20%

Already seeing this in referrals June to January 2012 – up 20%

And will feed through into outcomesIron law: lower growth = fewer jobs

A closer look – what’s happening with vacancies, occupations?

Survey vacancies flat, JCP up

How does that compare to new JSA claims?

Turning new vacancies and claims into a single ratio

Drilling down more deeply...

We study 26 groups of jobs covering all occupations that are not managerial, professional or associate professional

We analyse the seasonal patternsWe analyse the trendsAnd we compare with new JSA claims – because

some jobs are higher turnover than others – this corrects for that

We even do short-term forecastsAll for CPA areas with headline totals for local

authorities

An example ...

Comparing that to new JSA claims

Administrative occupations

Customer service recovering

Sales assistants – not (but may be changing names)

But some areas looking better - drivers

Date

911 : Elementar

y Agricultur

al Occupatio

ns

912 : Elementar

y Constructi

on Occupatio

ns

913 : Elementar

y Process

Plant Occupatio

ns

914 : Elementar

y Good

s Stora

ge Occupatio

ns

921 : Elementar

y Administration Occupatio

ns

922 : Elementar

y Personal Services

Occupatio

ns

923 : Elementar

y Cleaning

Occupatio

ns

924 : Elementar

y Security

Occupatio

ns

925 : Elementar

y Sales Occupatio

ns

811 : Process

Operative

s

812 : Plant And

Machine

Operative

s

813 : Assemble

rs And

Routine

Operative

s

814 : Constructi

on Operative

s

821 : Transport Drive

rs And Operative

s

822 : Mobil

e Machine

Drivers

And Operative

s

711 : Sales Assistants And

Retail

Cashiers

712 : Sales Relat

ed Occupatio

ns

721 : Customer Servi

ce Occupatio

ns

41 : Administrative Occupatio

ns

42 : Secretarial and

Related

Occupatio

ns

51 : Skille

d Agricultur

al Trades

52 : Skille

d Metal and Electronic Trades

53 : Skille

d Constructi

on and

Building

Trades

54 : Textil

es, Printi

ng and Othe

r Skille

d Trades

61 : Carin

g Personal Servi

ce Occupatio

ns

62 : Leisu

re and Othe

r Personal Servi

ce Occupatio

nsMay 2008

0.7 1.0 0.6 0.6 6.5 2.1 3.4 5.0 7.2 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.4 2.5 1.8 1.0 17.3 4.0 1.6 2.1 0.6 2.6 1.2 2.7 3.6 1.3

June 20080.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 6.3 2.0 3.3 4.5 6.6 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.1 2.3 1.6 0.9 15.2 3.5 1.5 1.9 0.7 2.4 1.1 2.5 3.4 1.2

July 20080.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 5.9 1.9 3.1 4.3 6.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.1 2.0 1.5 0.8 14.0 3.2 1.4 1.7 0.6 2.2 0.9 2.4 3.3 1.2

August 20080.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 5.2 1.8 3.1 3.9 6.1 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.8 12.4 2.9 1.2 1.5 0.6 1.9 0.8 2.4 3.3 1.2

September 20080.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 4.1 1.8 3.0 3.7 5.9 1.3 1.0 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 11.0 2.6 1.1 1.4 0.4 1.7 0.6 2.3 3.5 1.2

October 20080.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 5.2 1.7 3.0 3.4 5.5 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.7 1.3 0.9 0.8 11.1 2.4 1.0 1.3 0.4 1.5 0.5 2.2 3.6 1.1

November 20080.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 5.1 1.6 2.8 3.2 5.1 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 10.5 2.1 0.9 1.1 0.4 1.2 0.4 2.0 3.6 1.0

December 20080.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 5.9 1.4 2.5 2.9 4.7 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 10.5 2.0 0.8 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 1.7 3.3 0.9

January 20090.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 4.4 1.4 2.4 2.9 4.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.7 9.0 2.0 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 1.7 3.1 0.9

February 20090.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 4.0 1.1 2.1 2.3 4.0 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 8.5 1.7 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.7 0.3 1.3 2.6 0.7

March 20090.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 3.6 1.0 1.9 2.1 3.8 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 7.8 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.3 1.2 2.3 0.7

April 20090.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.9 0.9 1.8 1.8 3.3 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 8.6 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.1 2.2 0.6

May 20090.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.1 1.0 1.8 1.9 3.4 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 8.7 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.7

June 20090.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.4 1.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 10.2 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.3 2.0 0.7

July 20090.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 4.4 1.0 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 9.5 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.3 2.1 0.7

August 20090.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.5 1.0 2.0 1.7 3.0 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.6 10.9 1.4 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.4 2.1 0.7

September 20090.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.0 1.0 2.0 1.8 3.1 0.9 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 10.1 1.5 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.7

October 20090.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.6 1.0 2.0 1.9 3.3 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.5 11.2 1.6 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.8

November 20090.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.8 0.9 1.9 2.0 3.5 1.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.5 10.5 1.6 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.4 2.1 0.8

December 20090.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 5.5 1.0 1.9 2.0 3.5 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.5 11.0 1.7 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.4 1.5 2.2 0.8

January 20100.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 4.8 1.1 2.1 2.0 3.6 1.3 0.8 1.1 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.6 11.0 1.9 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.7 0.4 1.5 2.3 0.8

February 20100.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 4.6 1.1 2.1 2.0 3.5 1.2 0.8 1.1 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.6 12.1 1.8 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 1.5 2.2 0.9

March 20100.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 5.6 1.2 2.1 2.1 3.6 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.6 1.5 1.3 0.6 13.4 1.8 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.5 1.6 2.3 0.8

April 20100.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 6.7 1.1 2.1 2.2 3.6 1.4 1.0 1.3 0.7 1.6 1.5 0.5 14.9 1.7 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.6 1.5 2.2 0.8

May 20100.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 7.6 1.2 2.2 2.2 3.7 1.5 1.1 1.5 0.8 1.7 1.7 0.5 16.4 1.7 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 1.7 2.4 0.9

June 20100.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 6.8 1.1 2.2 2.3 3.7 1.5 1.2 1.6 0.8 1.9 1.9 0.5 18.3 1.7 0.8 1.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 1.7 2.6 0.9

July 20100.4 0.8 0.5 0.6 6.2 1.1 2.2 2.1 3.4 1.5 1.2 1.5 0.8 2.0 2.1 0.5 19.9 1.7 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.6 1.7 2.6 0.9

August 20100.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 5.6 1.0 2.0 2.3 3.5 1.4 1.2 1.4 0.9 2.0 2.2 0.5 19.5 1.6 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.9 0.7 1.6 2.3 0.8

September 20100.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 4.7 0.9 1.8 2.2 3.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.9 2.3 0.4 18.4 1.6 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.9 0.7 1.5 2.0 0.7

October 20100.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 6.4 0.9 1.8 2.3 3.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.9 2.0 2.3 0.4 17.9 1.5 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.0 0.8 1.5 2.0 0.7

November 20100.3 0.8 0.4 0.5 6.5 0.8 1.7 2.3 3.3 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.9 2.2 2.2 0.4 26.6 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.8 1.5 2.0 0.7

December 20100.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 7.4 0.8 1.8 2.2 3.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.9 2.4 2.1 0.4 26.1 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.8 1.5 2.1 0.8

January 20110.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 5.7 0.8 1.8 2.2 3.1 1.3 1.2 1.4 0.9 2.2 1.9 0.4 22.5 1.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 1.2 0.7 1.6 2.0 0.7

February 20110.5 0.8 0.5 0.5 5.4 0.8 1.7 2.2 3.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 0.9 2.2 1.9 0.4 13.1 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 1.3 0.7 1.6 1.8 0.7

March 20110.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 5.3 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.1 2.0 2.0 0.4 14.6 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.4 0.8 1.6 1.9 0.7

April 20110.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 5.1 0.8 1.6 2.7 3.8 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.3 2.1 2.3 0.4 16.1 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.6 0.8 1.7 1.9 0.8

May 20110.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 5.5 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.7 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 2.1 2.4 0.4 15.2 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.6 0.8 1.8 2.1 0.8

June 20110.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 6.1 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.8 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 2.2 2.4 0.4 14.1 1.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.6 0.7 1.8 2.1 0.8

July 20110.4 0.9 0.4 0.5 6.6 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.9 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 2.3 2.5 0.4 12.3 1.4 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.6 0.8 1.9 2.2 0.8

August 20110.4 1.0 0.5 0.5 6.6 0.9 1.8 2.7 4.1 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.6 2.6 2.6 0.4 12.4 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.7 1.0 1.8 2.3 0.8

September 20110.4 1.1 0.5 0.5 5.5 0.8 1.8 2.9 4.4 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.7 2.8 2.8 0.3 12.3 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.8 1.1 1.8 2.4 0.8

October 20110.5 1.1 0.5 0.5 10.6 0.8 1.7 2.7 4.2 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.8 3.1 3.0 0.3 14.3 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.9 1.1 1.9 2.5 0.9

November 20110.5 1.1 0.5 0.6 13.5 0.8 1.8 2.7 4.4 1.2 1.7 1.4 1.8 3.3 3.2 0.3 16.6 1.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 1.9 1.1 1.9 2.8 0.9

December 20110.6 1.1 0.5 0.7 15.5 0.9 1.8 2.7 4.5 1.4 1.8 1.6 1.9 3.4 3.1 0.3 18.1 1.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 2.0 1.0 2.0 3.1 0.9

January 20120.5 1.1 0.6 0.6 12.9 1.1 2.0 2.8 4.8 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.9 2.7 0.4 21.8 1.7 0.6 0.8 0.4 2.0 0.9 1.9 3.4 0.9

February 20120.5 1.0 0.6 0.6 10.6 1.1 2.0 2.9 5.0 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.4 2.4 2.5 0.4 19.2 1.6 0.6 0.8 0.3 1.9 0.9 1.9 4.0 0.9

March 20120.6 1.0 0.6 0.5 12.2 1.1 2.0 2.9 5.0 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.2 2.2 2.4 0.4 18.9 1.8 0.6 0.8 0.2 1.9 0.9 1.9 4.2 0.9

April 20120.7 1.0 0.6 0.5 11.9 1.1 2.0 3.3 5.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.7 2.7 0.4 14.8 2.4 0.6 0.8 0.2 2.1 0.9 2.1 4.7 1.1

May 20120.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 11.9 1.1 2.0 3.5 6.2 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.8 3.1 2.7 0.4 15.7 2.7 0.7 0.8 0.2 2.2 0.9 2.1 4.4 1.2

The regional pictureRegion Latest Rank   Last Month

Change on month

 Same

Month last year

Change on year

East 1.55 4   1.57 -0.01   1.18 0.38

East Midlands 1.73 2   1.59 0.14   1.14 0.59

London 1.02 10   0.95 0.07   0.67 0.35

North East 1.02 11   0.97 0.05   0.82 0.20

North West 1.36 6   1.32 0.04   1.00 0.37

Scotland 1.05 9   1.03 0.02   0.80 0.25

South East 1.78 1   1.71 0.07   1.18 0.60

South West 1.69 3   1.66 0.03   1.28 0.41

Wales 1.20 7   1.17 0.03   1.03 0.17

West Midlands 1.52 5   1.52 0.00   1.18 0.34

Yorkshire and The Humber 1.17 8   1.15 0.02   0.94 0.23

                 

Highest number or largest rise These are based on seasonally adjusted figures

     

Lowest number or largest fall  

       

What does this all mean?!Demand:• Labour market will continue to be resilient with

caveats• Service sector still create jobs? But changing jobs

• Manufacturing opportunities

• Transport/couriering – e.g. Internet shopping

• [Geography]• No sign of wages pressuring employers• Vacancies coming back up, but enough to make

inroads?

A green shoot?Changes in GDP and total hours worked (index 2008 Q1)

Supply• Hard Times

• More competition at entry level (and all levels); increased by reforms:• More lone parents on JSA• Fewer people passing WCA• Universal Credit around the corner

• Jobcentre Plus challenge: Resource? Freedom and flex? Economy?

• Work Programme: economy, performance, both?• How support the growing number who will reach very

long-term unemployment? Is workfare enough?