Hard and Soft Considerations in Procurement Planning in the IDF

Example through medical supplies

Introduction The IDF, like any military,

maintains large inventories of munitions for a rainy day.

How much ammunition of each type should be procured?

This is a tour of the decision making process through the prism of “soft-hard” problems and analysis.

Ice-Cream Cone Model One of the fundamental

questions: What do we need to win the war?

The required answer: 32,745 tank rounds, 714 JDAM, etc.

Basic Method

Benchmark scenario Consumption model Operational availability

considerations Meet reality ($)

The Planner’s Advantage

Israel’s disadvantage - bad neighbors.

The planners’ advantage - know your enemy

scenario

The Scenario is

A possible depiction of a future war. Details blue forces deployment and

basic action (defence, offence), at the division level - division fighting days (DFDs).

Serves as a common reference to all services.

scenario

How to choose a scenario Not a “hard” question, but a difficult one. Span many possible futures Zero-order estimation: Variations on order

of opponents and duration of each stage.

Not too strenuous, or budget constraints will render results of the analysis irrelevant.

A B C

scenario

Initial Problem Break-up

Medical kits used to treat soldiers injured in combat.

Medical kits used to treat soldiers injured at the bases.

Medical kits requirement for units.

Combat Consumption model

How many medical supply kits does a division need per day?

How many soldiers are injured in a brigade, per day?

Quite the gummy-bear

model

Still a gummy-bear

Armoured Infantry

Where do we start?

Go back in time for a straw to cling to

In 1973, the answer was roughly 50, of which about a quarter were various support troops.

Adjust for the Present

Scenario adjustments (inherent in the process)

Technology adjustments i.e. addition of flak vest

Tactical adjustments i.e. increased fortifications

Introduction of Flak Vest

Fiddled 1982 data for infantry soldiers

Derive Upper bound:

If vest does not reduce injury rate:Expect same injury ratio in both columnsSo the vests spared 20 injuries, And reduced 3% of injuries

Wore vest at timeTOTAL

YesNo

Hit in protected

area

Yes74(20%)

65(24%)

139

No300(80%)

205(76%)

505

TOTAL374270644

24%

20 +

20+

20664

76%

Points to Ponder

How do we know all important adjustments are accounted for?

At what point does adjusted 1973 data lose its relevance?

Consumption at Bases

Develop threat scenario: types numbers timing

of rocket attacks on various bases.

Effects of Rocket Attack

Result of each rocket salvo determined by Accuracy and lethality of rockets Number, dispersion and behavior of

people Lethality determined by

engineering studies and warhead experiments

Unit stocks

Guarantee X days of operational self-sufficiency.

Daily requirement - from precise model

U = XDDeeply analysed

Loosely analysed

Putting It All Together

Medical kits used to treat soldiers injured in combat.

Medical kits used to treat soldiers injured at the bases.

Medical kits requirement for units.

C

Sad fact (for the analyst): U >> C

U

Meet Reality

In most cases, other factors may be dominant: Budget constraints Supporting local industry Lead time required to close gaps Inter-service politics

Conclusion

Greater emphasis is placed on the “hard” elements of the equation, although the “soft” parts matter more.

Possible reasons: We do what we are trained to Numbers give a sense of “security” Effort gives a sense of “credibility”