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Australian S&D updateHANNAH JANSON | Australian Crop Forecasters
One season – two outcomes 2018 SEASON IN REVIEW
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01
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Pro
duct
ion
(mm
t)
Australian winter crop production
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Pro
duct
ion
(mm
t)
WA SA Vic. NSW Qld
Australian winter crop production
Rainfall deficiency vs previous droughts
Growing season rainfall deciles
Geographically diverse
0
50
100
150
200
250
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350
400
3
4
5
6
7
8
920
01
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2018
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
Whe
at y
ield
(kg
per m
m)
Growing Season Rainfall (mm) Yield (kgs per mm)
WA wheat yield
Drought influence CURRENT AUSTRALIAN PRICE INFLUENCES
-6
-4
-2
-
2
4
6
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
Sur
plus
/ de
ficit
(mm
t)East Coast feed grains deficit
-6
-4
-2
-
2
4
6
QLD NSW VIC EC SA WA
Sur
plus
/ de
ficit
(mm
t)2018 season feed grains deficit
-6
-4
-2
-
2
4
6
QLD NSW VIC EC SA WA
Sur
plus
/ de
ficit
(mm
t)2018 season feed grains deficit
-6
-4
-2
-
2
4
6
QLD NSW VIC EC SA WA
Sur
plus
/ de
ficit
(mm
t)2018 season feed grains deficit
‘000t Import(Export) Qld NSW Vic SA WA
Qld 2,150 250 100 1,800
NSW 1,350 (250) (150) 50 1,700
Vic 250 - 150 - 100
SA (150) (100) (50) - -
WA (3,600) (1,800) (1,700) (100) -
Matrix of grain movements
150
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45020
15
2016
2017
2018
2019
FOB
repl
acem
ent v
alue
s U
SD
/t
Kwinana Port Adelaide Geelong Newcastle
APW Wheat FOB Values
100
150
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250
300
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40020
15
2016
2017
2018
2019
FOB
repl
acem
ent v
alue
s U
SD
/t
Kwinana Port Adelaide Geelong Newcastle
Feed Barley FOB Values
DomesticRemainder
Domestic uses
Red MeatDairyPigs/PoultryMilling/Malt
Domestic uses
Domestic uses
Food
Dairy
↑1-2%
↓3%
↓10%
↑1%
↑3%
↓7%↑32%
Pigs Poultry
Other
BeefProduction
The year aheadOUTLOOK FOR 2019/20
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Pro
duct
ion
(mm
t)
No two El Nino’s are the same
2019/20 Season Increases
2019/20 Season Increases
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Pro
duct
ion
(mm
t)
Considerations for 2019/20
