hamburg - start | comfort...comfort city report hamburg 2016 2 / 14 227,000 people on workdays and...

HAMBURG

TOP-SHOPPING METROPOLIS IS DEVELOPING - BUT ÜBERSEEQUARTIER IS RAISING QUESTIONS

DEZEMBER 2016

COMFORT City Report Hamburg 2016 2 / 14

IN FIGURES Federal state: Hamburg

Inhabitants: 1,787,408

Population development: + 1.4 %

Employees: 912,650

Unemployment rate: 6.9 %

Purchasing power: 109.9

Centrality parameters: 112.2

Relevant shopping centres:

Europa Passage (C), Hanse-Viertel (C), Alstertal- Einkaufszentrum (S), Hamburger Meile (S), Elbe- Einkaufszentrum (S), Billstedt-Center (S), CCB City- Center Bergedorf (S), Phoenix-Center (S), QUARREE Wandsbek-Markt (S), Mercado Altona-Ottensen (S) Harburg Arcaden (S)

C=City S=District P=Outskirts

Hamburg is a city-state and the second largest city in

Germany with a population of almost 1.8 million. It is also one

of the most coveted locations for successful German and

international retailers and for property companies in Germany

and throughout Europe. There are many good reasons why

the city that is described as the “gateway to the world”

achieved an impressive second place for the second time in

succession in the renowned Emerging Trends in Real Estate

Europe 2017 survey (of almost 800 property experts through-

out Europe) which was published at the end of the year by

PwC and ULI.

Hamburg is a property location with a very diversified and

solid economic basis for trade, transport and services, plus

an extremely efficient transport infrastructure. The city has

the third-largest container port in Europe and its port

operations traditionally play an important role. Hamburg is

the undisputed number one place to work among the

northern German cities with a commuter surplus of around

227,000 people on workdays and an unemployment rate that

has now fallen below 7%. Macro-economic productivity (per-

capita GDP) is approximately EUR 59,000, which is one of

the highest figures for cities in Germany and in Europe.

THE CITY'S SIGNIFICANCE AS A RETAIL LOCATION

COMFORT believes that the overall development of

Hamburg’s retail framework has been very positive over

recent years. The city’s retail purchasing power index rating is

now 110 (source: GfK, national average = 100) and it has

experienced significant population growth. In addition to the

city’s own population and potential purchasing power, the

Hamburg retail sector traditionally draws upon a large

catchment area extending into Schleswig-Holstein and Lower

Saxony, where some 1.6 million people live. It therefore

enjoys impressively high potential demand from around

3.4 million consumers.

Hamburg is geographically located on the rivers Elbe and

Alster. It has a stimulating cityscape and atmosphere, as

well as an extensive leisure and lifestyle infrastructure

(sports, museums, concerts, the HafenCity experience),

which make the city a very popular tourist destination. Ham-

burg is now in third place behind New York and London as

one of the world’s most important cities for musical theatre

productions.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Prime retail rents

from 2006 - 2016 in EUR/m²

80-120m² 300-500m²

Source: state statistical offices, GfK GeoMarketing GmbH, Federal

Employment Agency

Source: COMFORT Research & Consulting

0 5 10 15 20 25

Proportion of retail space

in %

Proportion of sales in %

City centre area Hamburg > 1 Mio. Inhabitants


CATCHMENT AREA

0 25 50 75 100 125 150

Stuttgart

Munich

Cologne

Hamburg

Frankfurt am Main

Düsseldorf

Berlin

Purchasing power Centrality parameters

PURCHASING POWER AND CENTRALITY PARAMETERS

0 50 100 150 200 250

Stuttgart

Munich

Cologne

Hamburg

Frankfurt am Main

Düsseldorf

Berlin

FASHION CENTRALITY

Source: COMFORT – Research & Consulting

Source: GfK GeoMarketing GmbH

Source: COMFORT – Research & Consulting, base map RegioGraph

It is also a port of call for cruise ships (around 170 ships with

approx. 700,000 passengers in 2016) and hosts the

internationally famous “Cruise Days” event every two years

in summer. Last, but not least, the Elbphilharmonie (Elbe

Philharmonic Concert Hall) is finally finished after a years-

long wait. Visitors have been able to access the Plaza

viewing platform since November, and the music

programme is scheduled to begin on the 11th of January with

an opening gala, when the Elbphilharmonie comes to life as

a beacon of culture and urban architecture with global

appeal.

Developments in the tourism sector have been particularly

dynamic and in 2016 the city is expecting to report an all-

time record of more than 13 million overnight stays. This

alone is an indicator of the revenue potential in Hamburg

for inner city retailers and there is no end in sight to the

upward trend, driven by a hotel development boom, with

many projects already completed and ready for opening

and others in the implementation and planning phases.


As Hamburg’s appeal and international profile continue to grow, the number of tourists is expected to increase and

make the city even more attractive to retailers, especially international retailers that prefer to expand into other

countries visited by their domestic customers. It is no coincidence that the Scandinavian brands Stadium, Clas

Ohlson and Illums Bolighus selected Hamburg as their first “port of call” in their international expansion strategies.

The Turkish fashion label Koton has also opened its first German store on Hamburg’s Spitalerstrasse last week on

December, 16th. As a result of these favourable relevant performance parameters, Hamburg’s retail centrality

index rating is very positive at 112, and its fashion centrality rating is even higher at around 166 due to the large

catchment area and its key sectors of clothing & textiles and shoes & leather goods.

In 2015 Hamburg had total retail space of almost 2.7 million square metres, which corresponds to around 1.5 m²

per capita and generated total retail sales revenue of around € 10.7 billion. The city centre is by far the most

significant retail location in the city and the metropolitan area. Within the historic Wallring, or inner ring, and to the

north of Ost-West-Strasse, annual retail sales amount to around € 1.89 billion on retail space of approximately

340,000 m². However, these impressive figures are put into perspective in relation to the size of the city, because

they represent just approx. 13% of the city’s total retail space and approx. 17% of its revenue. Of all the major

German cities, only Berlin has similarly low percentages. Against this background there is unanimous agreement

in Hamburg that the inner city retail scene has to be extended so that it can adequately or more effectively fulfil its

transcentral supply function for Hamburg and the metropolitan area.

Although the last 10 years have seen quite a few new developments and refurbishments in the city centre (see

map on page 7), simultaneously additional space has been created outside of the city – approx. 100.000 m² of

which could be found in shopping centres. It is therefore much more important to create more new and suitable

retail space for current innovative concepts and shops within the city centre, in order to preserve the city as the

region´s top retail destination for visitors from the outermost catchment area.

Jungfernstieg 38, clas ohlson


PRIME RETAIL RENTS in EUR/m²

PRIME LOCATIONS

SPITALERSTRASSE

Highly frequented main axis (nearly 14,000 people/hour at peak times) to and from the central rail station with a high concentration of young fashion shops,

high degree of chain stores

Highest net sales per m2

Hardly any leeway for additional retail space

Implemented development projects: Spitalerstrasse 22-26 (7,000 m² retail space exclusively let by COMFORT, new openings in 2016: Koton and O²; 2017: Mango, Reserved)

Other new tenants: & other stories, Spitalerstr. 28

The PERLE Hamburg also opened as a shopping passage to Gerhard-Hauptmann-Platz, with Cubus, Dänisches Bettenlager, Rossmann, My Toys, Butter Lindner and Gin Yuu as tenants

New concept restaurant by Steffen Henssler in the former Daniel Wischer premises, Spitalerstr. 12

H&M extended its existing store premises, to become its largest Europeen store with nearly 4.000 m²

Location USP: various retail units have entrances on both Spitalerstrasse and Mönckebergstrasse

Rents: approx. EUR 310/m² (small), approx. EUR 200/m² (medium-sized)

MÖNCKEBERGSTRASSE

Generous shopping street as connection between central station and Rathausmarkt

Hanseatic brick architecture, big department stores and clothing shops

Very different location quality depending on side and area of the street

Europa Passage fulfils important traffic function as strong connection between Mönckebergstraße and Jungfernstieg/City West

Most attractive section between P&C/Galeria Kaufhof/Saturn/Zara flagship store and Bergstraße

Further enhancement towards Rathausmarkt/Großer Burstah thanks to the establishment of the Business Improvement District (BID) in the Nikolai Quarter

Recent establishment of the new Mönckebergstrasse BID

Low tenant fluctuation, so very few new rental opportunities at the “MÖ”

New tenants: Roncalli Café, Chanel Cosmetics, Sabon


310

80-120 m²

210

80-120 m² Spitalerstraße 22-26: Koton und O2 opened Flagships in the development of CENTRUM

200

300-500 m²

150

300-500 m²

240

80-120 m²


JUNGFERNSTIEG

Upmarket area with high footfall, traditional boulevard located on the Inner Alster, retailers along one side

Started redevelopment of the Alsterhaus department store by the KaDeWe Group will boost business

Very popular area for tourists

New tenants: Clas Ohlson, Läderach, Brandy Melville


NEUER WALL

Luxury retail location with international standing and dynamic development

Differentiated location character along the street (3 districts)

Highest footfall in the luxury segment between Jungfernstieg and Poststrasse

Concentration of international luxury labels in the central area between Poststrasse and Bleichenbrücke

New concepts are improving the retail mix and increasing footfall

The Quantum development Stadthöfe (opening 2018) provides new impulses; obvious stronger focus on luxury

New tenants: Mont Blanc (relocation), Illums Bolighus, Ecco, WMF (soon) Rents: approx. EUR 275/m² (small), approx. EUR 170/m² (medium-sized)

210

80-120 m²

155

300-500 m²

275

80-120 m²

170

300-500 m²

Jungfernstieg 48, Brandy Melville


GROSSE BLEICHEN / HOHE BLEICHEN / POSTSTRASSE

GERHOFSTRASSE / GALERIEN

A city quarter with a mixture of premium and upmarket retailers offering excellent amenity value

Further location development with the implementation of the BID Passagenviertel (Shopping Arcade Quarter) in Poststrasse/Grosse Bleichen and Gänsemarkt (Gerhofstrasse/ Poststrasse)

Arrival of new concepts that don’t target the mass market

Concentration of shopping arcades, most of which have been refurbished (Kaufmannshaus, Alte Post, Giradet Höfe) or are newly developed (Kaisergalerie by Quantum)

In Hohe Bleichen Luxury brands like Prada, Armani moved to Neuer Wall, more focussing on premium and upmarket-brands

New tenants: Who’s perfect, North Sails, Friendly Hunting, Boggi Milano, White Wall

Rents: approx. EUR 105 to 210/m² (small), approx. EUR 68 to 155/m² (medium-sized)

Hamburg is still one of the top cities in the COMFORT City Ranking. This is partly due to the city’s average retail

space productivity of EUR 5,600 per square metre sales area, which is only surpassed by Munich city centre. But

considerable differences are evident across different Hamburg City Centre locations. This city’s high average pro-

ductivity value and the sustained high demand for retail space over a period of many years, as well as its attrac-

tiveness as a location, are a reflection of the retail space shortage in Hamburg.

This situation has driven a wide range of quantitative and qualitative improvements to the Hamburg retail scene

over recent years and many more optimisation projects are in the pipeline.

210

80-120 m²

155

300-500 m²

Relevant developments within Hamburg city centre 2005 - 2016

http://www.comfort.de/en/research-consulting/


The City East (East of the Alsterfleet) is an existing prime location where the most notable development is the

Vattenfall building by CENTRUM. It is a result of the demolition of the energy company’s former customer service

centre and the development of a contemporary and generously dimensioned commercial property with 7,000 m² of

retail space which, when completed in the first quarter of 2017, will house four flagship stores operated by Mango,

Reserved, O² and Koton. The back of the building faces the former HSH Passage which has been extensively

refurbished by the HSH Bank into the “PERLE Hamburg” shopping passage. The new shopping passage has a

large restaurant area and has attracted a host of retailers such as Cubus, My Toys, Rossmann and others. An-

other direct neighbour in the former Café Wirth premises is the second & Other Stories store in Hamburg.

The Business Improvement District (BID) which is currently being developed on Mönckebergstrasse will also have

positive impacts on the core area of the East City. An extensive service package includes the set-up of over 50

state-of-the-art LED-streetlamps, ‘winter lights’ decoration as well as further service and communication utilities. In

the mid-term, there will also be some positive changes on the eastern city perimeter. After a delay of several

years, August Prien has now secured the contract to design the “City-Hochhäuser 2016” high-rise project.

The future development of what used to be a location with predominantly office buildings is also likely to result in

the relocation of retailers and restaurants along the extended section of Lange Mühren towards HafenCity.

Deutsche Bahn’s plans to extend and redesign its central station in a southerly direction (including Steintorbrücke

Bridge and the station forecourt) are significant for the entire eastern part of City East. Around 500,000 travellers/

visitors use the 110 year old central station every day. It has the highest passenger frequencies of all passenger

train stations and has already been operating at or near its capacity limit for a long time. For this reason, and in

order to provide central station visitors with a more appealing gateway to the city, which presently leads through a

tunnel, the prompt finalisation of these plans would be particularly welcome.

Several development projects in the peripheral streets near City Hall, Grosser Burstah and Alter Wall deserve

mention. One is the “‘Landmark” development by ArtInvest on Alter Wall in a top interface location between

Visualization of the planned BID-street, facade and effect lighting of Mönckebergstraße. Source: iGuzzini illuminazione Deutschland GmbH | MK Illumination Handels GmbH | Otto Wulff BID Gesellschaft mbH


Mönckebergstrasse/Rathausmarkt, Neuer Wall and the western section of Alter Wall, which includes 10,000 m² of

retail space and a new bridge over the Fleet. Another is the Commerz Real’s planned Burstah Ensemble on the

site of the former Allianz building complex, which is scheduled for demolition in 2018. These developments are

essentially part of the BID Nikolai Quarter, which regarding the constructional phase is already far advanced.

Most of BIDs in the City West, which is highly

attractive despite being comparably smaller in

terms of retail space and revenue, have already

been completed: BID projects on Neuer Wall,

Hohe Bleichen/ Heuberg, the Passagenviertel

quarter and the Opernboulevard, ushering in

dynamic development. These projects include

the Alte Post, the Kaiser-Galerie and the re-

modelling of the Kaufmannshaus. One of the

major developments is the extensive Quantum

construction project to build the Stadthöfe

(approx. 5,000 m² of predominantly small units

due for completion in 2017/18) on the former

City Building Authority site. Aachener Grund-

vermögen is also implementing a major devel-

opment project on the former Thalia premises at

Grosse Bleichen 19. The Giradet-Höfe project,

which is being implemented by Gator, will profit

from the Gänsemarkt BID which is already un-

derway. The Thomas i-Punkt and Vapiano store

openings will be followed by another consumer

magnet, the first city centre Globetrotter flagship

store in Hamburg.

By far the biggest retail development project in Hamburg is outside the city centre at HafenCity, in the Übersee-

quartier district, which is planned as the “centrepiece” of this urban regeneration project. The first stage of this new

mixed use city quarter involved the development of the (smaller) northern section by a consortium of investors,

and it was completed at the end of the last decade. The development of the southern section was “bogged down”

by factors such as the financial crisis, and the only evidence of development in this area for many years now has

been a concrete lined pit.

At the end of 2014 the City of Hamburg and HafenCity GmbH found a new investor, Unibail-Rodamco, and con-

cluded an agreement with it on the development of the southern Überseequartier. Deviating from HafenCity’s mas-

ter plan, the multifunctional urban development project on a gross area of around 225,000 m² (including a new

cruise ship terminal, offices, housing, hotel, restaurants, culture and entertainment) will include retail space with a

GFA of 80,500 m². That corresponds to 68,000 m² of net retail space. Added to the existing 8,000 m² of retail

space in the northern Überseequartier, there will be a total of 75,000 m² of retail space when the development is

finished, which is twice the area stipulated in the approved HafenCity master plan.

COMFORT agrees with the Trägerverbund Innenstadt organisation that this project merits critical evaluation:

The planned size and diversity of the retail space (almost 70,000 m² of new retail space, 200 retail units and

around 3,000 parking spaces), plus the shopping centre-like design (protection against wind and weather and a

wharf level) means that the City of Hamburg will be abandoning its urban development policy objective of network-

ing the City and HafenCity business districts in favour of a stand-alone concept. In Hamburg’s polycentric retail

district categorisation system, the shopping part of the planned southern Überseequartier district would continue to

function as a B2 zone rather than complementing the City retail scene. It will be a solitary, autonomous quarter

Stadthöfe – a project development by Quantum Immobilien AG (Source: bloomimages)


0 10 20 30 40

PURCHASE PRICE FACTOR

with its own weighting that does not require any connection or cross-fertilisation with the established City districts.

By comparison, there are only around 120 retail units in both prime locations of Spitalerstrasse and Möncke-

bergstrasse together as opposed to the planned 200 units in Überseequartier. And regarding dimension: the AEZ,

Hamburg’s biggest existing shopping centre operates on a retail rental space of 59.000 m². But in contrast to the

Überseequartier since the 1970’s this retail space was build up successively and grew far more compatible to-

gether with the market.

INVESTMENT

Over the past three quarters the German investment market has

gathered momentum after a slow start to the year. This won’t be a

record year, but it will be another very strong year that closes out not

far behind the excellent years of 2007 and 2015.

Demand for property in Hamburg is still strong and this city has

bucked two German-wide trends in 2016. The share of transaction

volume in the Big 7 has declined throughout Germany, reflecting an

increase in willingness on the part of investors to invest in other loca-

tions. Hamburg is the Big 7 city with the lowest decline in transaction

volume by far. The total transaction volume for retail properties in Germany has also declined due to the extreme

yield compression and low property availability. Hamburg has actually achieved growth in transaction volume by

selling some remarkable retail properties over the past one and a half years.

Project developer Art Invest, a company in the Bremen-based Zech Group, purchased the tradition-steeped Alter

Wall ensemble in 2012. It then initiated a development project behind the historical building facades that will run

until 2018 and involves the development of approx. 18,000 m² of office space and 12,000 m² of retail space right

next door to Hamburg City Hall. 40% of the shares in the project are held by a special-purpose fund set up by the

Hamburg Medical Association’s Pension Organisation. The other shares are in a special-purpose fund set up by

the project development company, and several other pension organisations have made investments in it.

A joint venture involving Pramerica Mercury and RFR Holding purchased Saturn on Mönckebergstrasse. Matrix

Immobilen and private investors in Munich had bought the property in 2013 with the intention of optimising its oc-

cupancy level and space utilisation concept, but they made very little progress in negotiations with the tenant Sat-

urn about relinquishing additional retail space. So they seized the opportunity to sell the property for around EUR

115 million, which is around 40% more than they originally paid for it.

A property on Neuer Wall was sold in a compulsory partition auction that took place because the community of

owners could not reach agreement on the property’s modernisation. Although some of the owners joined in the

bidding, they were unable to secure the property, and it sold for around EUR 18.5 million. This was a considerably

higher price than the auction estimate of EUR 11 million. The new owner, a family office that already has a re-

markable portfolio of properties in Hamburg city centre, is likely now planning the modernisation work that the pre-

vious owners couldn’t agree upon and the current tenant, Fahnenfleck, will probably be replaced by a luxury-

/premium retailer with an interest in the location.

The Burstah Ensemble on Grosser Burstah in the up-and-coming Nikolai Quarter, which is planned as a complex

with around 40,000 m² of rental space for hotel, office, retail and residential users, was sold by Quantum Immo-

bilien AG to Commerz Real at a very early stage of construction. This development project is incorporated in the

open-ended hausInvest fund and it is another aspect of the urban development concept for the district near

Mönckebergstrasse and Hamburg City Hall.

A similar building complex is the focus of Hamburg project development company Momeni and Black Horse In-

vestments, the family office of Düsseldorf’s Schwarz-Schütte family. The former Axel-Springer site near to Ham-

29,0 - 31,0


burg’s exclusive Hohe Bleichen will have around 45,000 m² of office, retail and residential space after renovation

and partial redevelopment. Axel Springer Verlag, the publishing company selling the property and the previous

occupant, will lease a substantial area of the office space there in future.

Momeni was also on the selling side when it sold Wallhaus, an office and commercial building on Neuer Wall with

around 5,000 m² of rental space, to a private investor for around EUR 60 million. The two luxury retailers Giorgio

Armani and Mulberry have now moved in there. This sale continues Momeni’s run of success in the immediate

vicinity of Neuer Wall, where it has already realised four projects.

Two smaller properties on Rathausmarkt and Jungfernstieg also changed hands. Quantum Immobilien purchased

the office and commercial building at Rathausmarkt 19 for one of its special-purpose funds. The retail tenants are

the Rathausapotheke pharmacy and the Nur Hier bakery. Jungfernstieg 47 (tenant O2) changed hands only very

recently in 2014. It has now been bought by the open-ended property fund “Leading Cities Invest” which is man-

aged by the KanAm fund company. The sale provided a hefty 20% profit to a family office in northern Germany.

Outside the city centre there have also been many investment transactions in the districts. For example, Frankfurt-

based DIC purchased a package of three retail properties, including two Marktkauf Centers in Hamburg-Harburg

and Hamburg-Bergedorf. Last year project developer HBB sold the W1 commercial building, a new development

project with tenants such as Decathlon, Rewe and dm, in Hamburg-Wandsbek to the Munich company KGAL, and

this year HBB purchased the Krohnstieg Center in Hamburg-Langenhorn. It plans to implement optimisations over

the next few years. CBRE Global Investors purchased the Rahlstedt Center, a shopping centre in the western

Hamburg district of the same name, and Hamburg’s Quantum bought a commercial property in Hamburg-

Blankenese with eight units and tenants including Deutsche Post and the DatBackhus bakery. Other smaller retail

properties, e.g. in sub-districts of Hamburg-Niendorf (Tibarg) and Bergedorf (Weidenbaumsweg), also changed

owners. In Wedel, which is located on the western Hamburg city limits, a commercial property with the tenants

Mönckebergstraße 1, SATURN


Rossmann and Hamburger Sparkasse was sold to a private investor in Hamburg. COMFORT Hamburg arranged

the lease with Rossmann and brokered the sale.

Sustained high demand for premium commercial properties in Hamburg City is likely to continue putting pressure

on yields. The low interest rates are not likely to change in the near future, so property investments continue to be

one of the most important institutional and private capital outlay options. Despite the historically low yields, further

yield compression in the next year cannot be ruled out. While yields as low as 2.5 to 2.0 % were recently being

accepted for selected properties with potential, investors looking for ‘completed products’ can now expect yields of

3.5 to 3.3% if they intend to invest in properties located in Hamburg’s prime city centre.

COMORT CITY-RANKING 2016

The COMFORT City Ranking assesses the economic basis, power of attraction, and performance of the retail trade and retail properties in city centres. The index serves as a factually substantiated basis for negotiating rental and purchase prices of city-centre retail properties in Germany. Technically, it is a weighted index of relevant key data and parameters relating to demography and (socio-)economics, the retail trade, location and retail properties. For the most important 60 cities, which are represented in this HIGH STREETS report with individual city reports, a total of 35 parameters determined topically and in the same manner for each individual city are entered. Using a scoring model, the parameters cover three major areas, within which individual sub-indicators are also analysed. In detail these are as follows: • Demography/(socio-)economic index (Parameters for population/development, GDP, employment, unemployment, tourism, retail purchasing power) • Retail trade index (Parameters for the catchment area: population size and level of demand, retail centrality, fashion centrality, as well as city centre sales, sales areas

and sales-area productivity) • Location and real-estate index (Parameters for the rents of small/medium-sized spaces, location / retail space structure of the city centre, industry/operator mix in the city

centre, rental demand, intensity of demand[Overall rental space demand in m2 in relation to the available retail spaces in the city centre])

Hamburg is currently ranked at the forefront of the COMFORT City Ranking, a weighted index with 35 parameters

benchmarking the performance and attractiveness of the retail sectors in cities throughout Germany. Scoring 91

out of a possible 100 points, Hamburg is the undisputed “jewel of northern Germany”. It achieved particularly high

scores for its macro-economic performance, retail performance and catchment area.

SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK

Hamburg is the dominant northern German city and the second-largest city in the entire country with a very solid

and sustainable macro-economic environment. Beyond its impressive endogenous potential, the external factor of

tourism adds to Hamburg’s weighting year after year. The Speicherstadt and the Kontorhaus quarter have re-

ceived UNESCO World Cultural Heritage status, and the city has another genuinely global highlight with the re-

cently opened Elbphilharmonie concert hall. All these developments are making the city even more attractive to

foreign tourists and international retailers wanting to expand to Germany.

In the overall framework of near-term inner city developments, a wide variety of projects are creating new and

generally high quality retail space. They will become established in the course of existing or BID development

processes, particularly on the perimeters of existing business districts. As a result, qualified retail locations in

Hamburg are expanding predominantly to the south-west (extending good locations in the vicinity of Grosse Blei-

chen, Neuer Wall, Alter Wall, Grosse Johannisstrasse, Grosser Burstah), though there is also a growing focus

along Alstertor and Ballindamm towards Binnenanalster and BID-related developments to the north on Opern-

boulevard. Development lines to the south (“a jump” across Steinstrasse) are evident by the new retail stores that

have opened recently (dm, Ligne Roset on both sides of the street) and reflected in the planned City-Hochhäuser

high-rise development project. Urban development policy aims to create a functional link between City and

Demography / (socio-)economy

Retail trade

Location and real estate

http://www.comfort.de/de/research-consulting/comfort-city-ranking/


HafenCity and this is happening or, at least, developments appear to be moving in that direction because existing

retail locations are being successively extended towards HafenCity, although there are no developments in the

opposite direction.

In light of these extremely positive organic development processes, the development outlook in HafenCity, espe-

cially the southern Überseequartier, is strongly criticised by city centre property owners, investors and merchants.

The urban developers’ misguided attempt to set up a giant stand-alone concept – a current draft discussion paper

on the development of a new concept for central Hamburg actually calls it a UFO – is being exacerbated by the

commercial impacts on City retailers. According to a BulwienGesa report, significant revenue shrinkage of be-

tween € 120 and 150 million is to be expected, which will considerably weaken the position of established City

retailers.

If Hamburg goes ahead with its plans it is possible that a “critical mass” will be reached that will have a negative

impact on the sensitive supply and demand mechanisms in the retail space rental market. This will jeopardise the

continuation of the previously mentioned organic urban and retail developments and the success of the inner city

BID model, which has made Hamburg the envy of other German cities. It is important to remember that the BID

initiatives are financed from contributions made by the property owners and, like many other private sector

investments in inner city retail properties, dependent on the city developers acting reasonably in terms of whether

they would implement their original plans for the Überseequartier district or not.

COMFORT believes that the current plans are casting a dark shadow over urban development progress in the city

thus far, as well as over its future development outlook.

Development of the city centre location structure


CONTACT:

DEFINITIONEN Rents in prime locations All statements pertaining to rents are to be read with the following in mind: New rent contracts drawn up in absolutely prime business locations for fictive, purely ground floor sales areas; ideal shop space has ground-level, step-free access, is fitted out to a high standard and, as far as possible,

its layout is at a right angle to a shop window with a minimum length of 6 m (for a size of 80–120 m²) or 10 m (for 300–500 m²); peak rents in EUR per

m², per month, plus statutory VAT and service charges

Purchasing power, Centrality parameters The purchasing power index complements the information on population size for a given location with qualitative criteria. The average value has been standardised nationwide at 100. A value above 100 signals that a location has above average purchasing power potential. However, the pur-chasing power index does not provide any information as to whether the available capital is in fact spent in the location in question or not. The centrality indicator shows whether, on balance, purchasing power is flowing into or away from a particular location. A value over 100 indicates that the inflow of purchasing power from the surrounding area is higher than the outflow from the city. The centrality indicator thereby sheds a special light on the attractiveness of a location for the retail trade.

Fashion centrality Analogous to the industry-wide centrality parameters (= retail centrality), the fashion centrality indicator sheds light on the situation in an important sub-sector – the key city-centre segment fashion, which in turn comprises the two product segments clothing/textiles and shoes/leather products.

Catchment Area

Cartographic representation of geographic areas in terms of the city’s importance to their resident population as a shopping destination. Blue repre-sents the core city area (zone 1) and red represents the immediate and extended catchment area (zone II).

RESEARCH & CONSULTING

OLAF PETERSEN

COMFORT Research & Consulting Phone: +49 40 300858-22 Mobile: +49 175 7217720 E-Mail: [email protected]

INVESTMENT

THOMAS A. HECKH

COMFORT Hamburg

Phone: +49 40 300858-17

Mobile: +49 175 7217734

E-Mail: [email protected]

LEASING

FRANK REITZIG

COMFORT Hamburg

Phone: +49 40 300858-13

Mobile: +49 175 7217723

E-Mail: [email protected]

Editor: COMFORT Holding GmbH Kaistraße 8A 40221 Düsseldorf

About the COMFORT Group The COMFORT Group has specialised in the sale and letting of commercial properties and retail units in prime city centre locations since it was established in 1979. As a proven retail property expert, COMFORT makes its know-how available via a consultancy services portfolio which includes expertises, second opinion appraisals and third party due diligence reports. The portfolio also includes shopping centre consultancy, management services and the special unit luxury retail. The COMFORT Group is headquartered in Düsseldorf and has offices in Berlin, Düs-seldorf, Hamburg, Leipzig, Munich, Vienna and Zurich. www.comfort.de

COMFORT Group media contact Frank Hinz, Corporate Communications Kaistraße 8A, 40221 Düsseldorf / Phone: +49 211 9550-144 / E-Mail: [email protected]

http://www.comfort.de/de/info-center/

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