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THE NATION AUGUST

••I IS lans

• II IIrl I n rSeptem

DECENT PRICES EXPECTED AS DEMAND IS HIGH PETCHANETPRATRUANGKRAI

THE NATION

THE COMMERCE MINISTRY is preparing to hold another rice auction in September after teams sentby the military's ruling National Council for Peace and Order finished inspecting government stockpiles to determine volumes and quality on Thursday.

Duangporn Rodphaya, director_general of the Foreign Tra~_ Depaltment, said the TIl in istrywou ld continue to sell small lots of rice to private traders during the off-harvest season over the next two months.

"The next auction will be held in the second week ofSeptember. The types of rice up for bid \\~ll be mixed to reflect demand for both export and domestic supply," she said.

The ministry in early August called bids for 167,000 tonnes ofrice. It sold 73,200 tonnes to 11 traders . after bargaining for high er prices. The sale generated about 8t740 million.

Duangporn said the government should be able to get suitable bids in next month's auction because demand in the rice market is high at present.

The highest price offered for jasmine rice in the August auction was 8t28,000 pertonne. For the nextsale, a ministry committee overseeing releases of rice from the stockpiles

has adjusted some conditions for setting a floor price to ensure the bids are in accordance with expectations.

According to the Thai Rice E:-"1l01ters Association, the market price of 5 per cent white rice was quoted at US$441 per tonne as of August 27, slightly down from $447 per tonne the previous week because ofa weaker baht. The priceofthesecand-grade Thai jasmine rice was unchanged at $1,090 per tonne.

Quality inspection Duangporn said the ministry

would sell only rice that had passed the quality inspection ordered by the junta. It \vill not include the 90,000 tonnes left over from the last auction in neAt month's sale because it has not yet cleared the quality inspection.

The ministry is confining its rice sales to small lots until the upcoming harvest season because it wants to keep close track of the exact volume and quality of the rice in the stockpiles.

It has been reported that the governmenthas about 18 million tonnes of rice in its stocks, but about 10 per cent is missing or of a lower standard.

Duangporn said that nowthatthe 1,800 warehouses nationwide had been inspected, officials would spend the next two weeks docurnentingthe results.

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THE NATION 30 AUGUST 2014l:)l)

Sugar from Thailand heading for US bourse amid

BLOOMBERG

TRADERS may ship Thai raw sugar equivalent to 16 per cent of the global surplus against the October contract on the ICE Futures US exchange, the first deliveries from this country since 2012.

About 625,000 tonnes of the unrefined sweetener will be delivered when futures e)."pire, according to the median ofsix estimates in a Bloomberg survey ofanalysts and traders. The forecasts, from companies including Green Pool Commodity Specialists and UBS AG, ranged from 300,000 to 2 million tonnes. The global surplus will be 4 million tonnes this crop year, according to the International Sugar Organisation.

Sugar from Thailand, the world's second-biggest exporter, has been shipped against ICE contracts only five times since at least July 2008, according to exchange data. Traders are renewing deliveries after Thai stockpiles swelled, contributing to a global oversupply that has driven

down US futures by about 17 per cent since June amid a bumper harvest in Brazil.

"The forward outlook now depends on resolving this low-quality surplus sugar, which we think is likely to end up being delivered on to the exchange," said Andre,;" Slinger, the managing director of Enerfo Sugar in Singapore. He did not participate in the survey.

Prices dropped 4.8 per centthis month after an 8.6-per-cent decline · in July and traded at 15.66 US cents a pou nd yesterday: Futures reached a high of18.81 cents in June. The discount for October versus March v,ridened almost fourfold in the past six months and reached 2.02 cents on August 26. .

Stockpiles in Thailand are estimated to surge 36 per cent to a record 4 .9 million tonnes in the season ending in November, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Inventories accumulated after competition from Brazil reduced demand for Thailand's sweetener.

global glut Exports declined 18 per cent to

3.67 million tonnes in the first seven months from a year earlier, according to the Thai Commerce MinistlYThe delay in selling off stockpiles has hurt the quality and caused the colour to darken, said Piromsak Sasunee, chief executive officer of Bangkok-based Thai Sugar Trading Corp, the nation's top exporter.

12 million tonnes The country will produce 12 mil

lion tonnes ofra\v sugar in the 12 months from November compared with 11.29 million tonnes a year earlier, Somsak Suwattiga, secretarygeneral of the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board, said last month. It may have to carry forward about 900,000 tonnes ofraw and white sugar for shipment next year, Piromsak said this week.

The world market will have a surplus of1.3 million tonnes in the year starting October, a fifth straight glut, and a small shortage the year after, Lindsay Jolly, senior econo

mist at the International Sugar Organisation,said in Indonesia.

Previous deliveries ofThai sugar into US futures contracts were concentrated in March 2011 through March 2012, according to exchange data, when harvests soared to a record. Since at least 2008 traders typically settled US contracts with shipments from Central and South America, the data show.

Open interest for October contracts in New York totals 433,450 contracts of112,000 pounds, or 22 million tonnes, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

About 500,000 tonnes ofraw sugar from Central America may also be delivered, said Wayne Gordon, an analyst at UBS in Singapore. Thai shipments may be about 1 million tonnes, he says.

"You have a situation where a substantial amount of sugar needs to be sold before 2015," Gordon said. "The pressure is on because you see another reasonably large crop coming. Clearly you need more space by clearing the old stocks."

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BANGKOK POST ?ll AUGUST 2014

r

TIME TO LOOK

8 YO THE

:ARMY RANKS

t's no surprise that a significant number of senior military officers will hold key positions in the cabinet of Prime jvlinister Prayuth Chan-ocha. Gen Prayuth sal's the security siruation is not yet normal andhe needs men he can trust to work with him.

He's aware of the criticisms and has promised that changes would be made if his ministers don't perform. Such promises are not new for Thai prime ministers. And under normal circumstances, we would consider such statements par for the course. GenPrayuth needs to have his band of brothers by his side as they make way for the next wave of armed forces leaders in the impending military reshuffle . Be that as it may there is one key position which should definitely not be occupied by a military officer - the post of Foreign i\1inister.

Immediately after the coup, the military realised that there would be negative reactions from certain wcstern countries and the international media. They pondered how best to deal \-vith the coup's impact

i on the country's international image and' standing. The military also sought for ways I, to make Gen Prayuth, now prime minister, more acceptable to the global community.

One key approach was to reach out to foreign businesses operating in Thailand to e:l:plain why the coup was necessary. But an equally key message was the regime's commitment to economic recovery. The message was: Tell us what you want.

i Not surprisingl)', the National Council r for Peace and Orde r welcomed military

delegations from neighbouring countries and portrayed to the public that there was understanding, if not acceptance, by others.

But meaningful acceptance ca~ only be earned when the country takes substantive steps toward the rerum to the democratic path - and I don't just mean elections. It means genuine reform in the 11 key areas to be hammered out by the National Reform Assembly and the drafting of the new charter.

If NRl\ m embers selected by th e mili tary-appointed committees comprise the bro ad specu'um of \; ews - even opposing views - from vari ou sectors of Thai soci· ety, then ulere wiJI be greater trust and can· f1dence in the road map. That's what Thais. md our global partners, will be expecting.

It app ears that Gen Pra),Ulh is set at 3ppointing outgoingSuprcme Commander Cen Tanasak Patimapragorn as deputy prime minister and foreign minister. Cen fanasak may ha\'c extensive contacts \vith military men from orher countries. But a decisi on based primarily on this fact would be a mistakc.

Even if Gen Tanasak is backed by the appointment of a career diplomat as deputy foreign minister (Don Pramudwinai is tipped for this position), such a decisiun mll deepe n the scepticism that the mili tary has an ulterior moti·.'C when it seized power other than the professed reason ot carrying out major political reforms that Thailand desperately needs. It is already extremely difficult, if not next to impossible, to \·vin support and earn legitimacy from the international community with the heavy presence of men in green in the National Legislative Assembly and the cabinet.

Global trends lean towards openness and participation with higher level of transparency and accountability on the part of the government leaders. Thailand cannot afford to go against this prevailing trend.

The confidence of key foreign counterparts is already diminished because they feel the c urrent regime lacks legitimaC)' intemaUy. The next foreign minister already faces an uphill task because of this view.

But ministerial portfolios which require interaction with foreign counterparts and external parties, NGOs or institutions should avoid any handicap even before entering any discussion or negotiation.

Foreign Affairs, Finance and Corrunerce aremost exposed to external players and global issues. Thai ministerial delegations

; Wlder military leadership will automaticaUy suffer from lack legitimacy and their efficacy will be diminished. In bilateral and multilateral settings, military men will be regarded as unequal partners in any consultation or

! negotiation when most other players carry with them democratic credentials.

Having military men in crucial portfolios dealing '"'lith the outside world is not doing the country a favour. In fact, it will further dimini sh the nation's already battered international profile. If there is still time then please find someone from the ranks ofcareer diplomats who at least have some standing within the international COIll/l1Unity to represent Thailand.

Pichai Chuensuksawadi is edilor·in·chief 01 PostPub· lishing. Contact him at pichai@bangkokpost.co.lh.

mailto:pichai@bangkokpost.co.lh

57-08-30-31 (กรม)57-08-30-31 (ใบนำส่ง)57-08-30-31 (กระทรวง)