guy caruso administrator energy information administration washington, dc june 20, 2006...
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Guy CarusoAdministrator
Energy Information Administration
Washington, DCJune 20, 2006
International Energy Outlook 2006
with Projections to 2030
International Energy Outlook 2006 - Summary
• Worldwide marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 71 percent between 2003 and 2030. Highest growth projected for the developing countries.
• World oil prices are 35 percent higher in 2025 than in last year’s IEO. Higher prices dampen growth in world oil demand, which is 8 million barrels per day lower in 2025 than in IEO2005.
• World unconventional production (including oil sands, bitumen, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids) accounts for 25 percent of the projected total world liquids supply increase.
• Higher oil prices increase the competitiveness of coal and natural gas, which grow by 2.5 and 2.4 percent per year, respectively.
• Higher fossil fuel prices and concerns about security of energy supplies improve the prospects for nuclear power and renewables over the projection period.
• Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 25.0 billion metric tons in 2003 to 33.7 billion metric tons in 2015 and 43.7 billion metric tons in 2030.
World Energy Consumption by Region, 2003-2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Qua
drill
ion
Btu
Source: EIA, IEO2006
Non-OECDOECD
Energy Intensity by Country Grouping, 1980-2030
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Tho
usan
d B
tu p
er 2
000
Dol
lar
of G
DP
OECD
History Projections
Non-OECD Europe andEurasia
Other Non-OECD
Source: EIA, IEO2006
IEO2006 vs. IEO2005: World Oil Prices
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
2004
Dol
lars
per
Bar
rel
IEO2006
History Projections
IEO2005
Source: EIA, IEO2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Qu
ad
rilli
on
Btu
World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
33%
27%
9%Renewables
Nuclear
26%
5%
Share of WorldTotal
History Projections
38%
24%
24%
8%
6%
Source: EIA, IEO2006
Forecast Comparisons in 2025: IEO2006 vs. IEO2005
224
173
177
34
58
665
243
162
156
34
49
645
162
99
100
27
33
421
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
Total
Quadrillion BtuSource: EIA, IEO2006
IEO2006
2003
IEO2005
Worldwide Liquids Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
Non-OPEC
OPEC
UnconventionalUnconventional
Source: EIA, IEO2006
OPEC Liquids Production: IEO2005 and IEO2006
29
38
41
47
53
2931
3740 40
4345
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day
IEO2006IEO2005
Source: EIA, IEO2006
Worldwide Unconventional Production, 2005 and 2030
1.0
0.5
0.00.2
0.7
0.0
3.6
1.7
2.1 2.1 2.1
0.1
0
1
2
3
4
Oil Sands UltraHeavy
Gas toLiquids
Coal toLiquids
Biofuels Shale Oil
Mill
ion
Bar
rels
per
Day 2030
2005
Source: EIA, IEO2006
World Natural Gas Consumption, 2003-2030
50
56
6367
7174
45
60
72
83
95
108
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Tril
lion
Cub
ic F
eet
Non-OECD
OECD
Source: EIA, IEO2006
World Coal Consumption, 2003-2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bill
ion
Sho
rt T
ons
Non-OECD
OECD
Source: EIA, IEO2006
Net Electricity Consumption, 2003-2030
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bill
ion
Kilo
wat
thou
rs
Non-OECDOECD
Source: EIA, IEO2006
World Nuclear Power Generation, 2003-2030
2,1352,234
2,294 2,320 2,304 2,307
388505
647
802
929993
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bill
ion
Kilo
wat
thou
rs
Non-OECDOECD
Source: EIA, IEO2006
World Renewable Energy Use, 2003-2030
17
22 2224
2526
15
24
27
30
33
37
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Qua
drill
ion
Btu
Non-OECDOECD
Source: EIA, IEO2006
World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 2003-2030
1314
1516
1717
12
16
19
21
24
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
Non-OECDOECD
Source: EIA, IEO2006
World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type
0
10
20
30
40
50
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Bill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
Oil
Natural Gas
Total
History Projections
Coal
Source: EIA, IEO2006
Major Trends in the IEO2006 Outlook
• Total world energy use is about 21 quadrillion Btu higher (3 percent) in 2025 than in last year’s report.
• High world oil prices result in lower growth in oil demand; coal, natural gas, and renewables all increase relative to IEO2005.
• Coal and natural gas are the fastest growing energy sources worldwide - increasing by 2.5 and 2.4 percent per year, respectively.
• Energy use in the non-OECD exceeds energy use in the OECD by 2015; by 2030 non-OECD energy use is 34 percent higher than in the OECD.
• China’s energy consumption is 5 quadrillion Btu higher than the U.S. by 2030 (IEO2006 reference case).
• Carbon dioxide emissions are 1.3 billion metric tons higher than in last year’s forecast in 2025.
Guy F. Caruso
Periodic Reports
Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly
Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly
Annual Energy Outlook 2006, February 2006
International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006
Examples of Special Analyses
“Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” Annual Energy Outlook 2006
Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,
March 2004
The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec 2003
“Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005
www.eia.doe.gov