gun violence in st. louis ii.pdf
TRANSCRIPT
Firearm Violence in St. Louis: Trends, Challenges, Responses
Richard Rosenfeld University of Missouri – St. Louis
Overview • National and local trends • The recent increase in gun violence – St. Louis is not alone – Ferguson effect? – Neighborhood variation – Drug market expansion?
• Responses – Hot spot policing – Focused Deterrence
• Focus on people-in-places
Trends
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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Figure 1. US Homicide Rate per 100,000 Population, 1960-2013
Source: Uniform Crime Reports
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Figure 2. St. Louis and US Homicide Rates per 100,000 Population, 1985 - 2013
St. Louis US
Source: Uniform Crime Reports
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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Figure 3. St. Louis and Five-City Average Homicide Rate per 100,000 Population, 1985-2013
St. Louis
Five-City Average (Kansas City, Memphis, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Cincinnati)
Ratio (StL/5-City Avg. Mean = 2.14 Min = 1.19 Max = 2.76
Source: Uniform Crime Reports
Source: Uniform Crime Reports
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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Figure 4. St. Louis and Five-City Average Homicide Rate per 100,000 Population, 1985-2013
St. Louis
Five-City Average
The Recent St. Louis Crime Rise Homicides Gun Assaults
2014 159 1844 Chg. +39 +218 % chg. 32.5% 13.4% 2015* 136 1515 Chg. +51 +459 % chg. 60.0% 43.5% *January – August Source: SLMPD
Ferguson Effect?
Michael Brown Killing
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January February March April May June July August September October November December
Monthly Homicides in St. Louis, 2013 - 2014
2014
2013
Michael Brown Killing
Michael Brown Killing
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1.00
1.50
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2.50
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3.50
4.00
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Ratio of Monthly Homicides, 2014 v. 2013 !
Michael Brown Killing
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-5
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1" 3" 5" 7" 9" 11"13"15"17"19"21"23"25"27"29"31"33"35"37"39"41"43"45"47"49"51"53"55"57"59"61"63"65"67"69"71"73"75"77"79"81"83"85"87"89"91"
Change in Homicides in St. Louis Neighborhoods, 2013 - 2014
All N'Hoods (+39) 2013: 120 homicides 2014: 159 homicides
Wells-Goodfellow (+7)
West End (+6)
Carondelet (+4) Jeff Vanderlou (+4) Kingsway East (+4) Lewis Place (+4) Mark Twain (+4) St. Louis Place (+4)
Violent Crime
(Homicide + Aggravated Assault + Robbery + Rape
Michael Brown Killing
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
January February March April May June July August September October November
Ratio of Monthly Violent Crimes, 2014 v. 2013
Michael Brown Killing
Property Crime
(Burglary + Larceny + Motor Vehicle Theft)
Michael Brown Killing
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
January February March April May June July August September October November
Ratio of Monthly Property Crimes, 2014 v. 2013
Michael Brown Killing
Neighborhood Variation in Gun Assault Rise
-20
-10
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1" 3" 5" 7" 9" 11" 13" 15" 17" 19" 21" 23" 25" 27" 29" 31" 33" 35" 37" 39" 41" 43" 45" 47" 49" 51" 53" 55" 57" 59" 61" 63" 65" 67" 69" 71" 73" 75" 77"
Change in Gun Assaults in St. Louis Neighborhoods, 2014 2015 (January - August)
O'Fallon Greater Ville
LaSalle Marine Villa
O'Fallon 37The-Greater-Ville 33Downtown 28Tower-Grove-East 28Gravois-Park 26Wells>Goodfellow 25Dutchtown 23Kingsway-West 22West-End 20Baden 19Hamilton-Heights 18Jeff-Vanderlou 16Lewis-Place 15Benton-Park-West 14Academy 12Downtown-West 12Midtown 11Old-North-St.-Louis 11Fairground 10Hyde-Park 10Kingsway-East 9Kosciusko 9McKinley-Heights 9Peabody>Darst>Webbe 9St.-Louis-Place 9
Skinker'DeBaliviere 8Walnut1Park1West 8Fountain1Park 7The1Gate1District 7Columbus1Square 6Patch 6Walnut1Park1East 6Lindenwood1Park 5Vandeventer 5North1Hampton 4The1Ville 4Ellendale 3Lafayette1Square 3North1Point 3Benton1Park 2Forest1Park1SE 2Franz1Park 2Holly1Hills 2North1Riverfront 2Southwest1Garden 2Botanical1Heights 1Clifton1Heights 1Covenant'Blu/Grand1Ctr 1Kings1Oak 1St.1Louis1Hills 1Bevo1Mill 0
Skinker'DeBaliviere 8Walnut1Park1West 8Fountain1Park 7The1Gate1District 7Columbus1Square 6Patch 6Walnut1Park1East 6Lindenwood1Park 5Vandeventer 5North1Hampton 4The1Ville 4Ellendale 3Lafayette1Square 3North1Point 3Benton1Park 2Forest1Park1SE 2Franz1Park 2Holly1Hills 2North1Riverfront 2Southwest1Garden 2Botanical1Heights 1Clifton1Heights 1Covenant'Blu/Grand1Ctr 1Kings1Oak 1St.1Louis1Hills 1Bevo1Mill 0
Skinker'DeBaliviere 8Walnut1Park1West 8Fountain1Park 7The1Gate1District 7Columbus1Square 6Patch 6Walnut1Park1East 6Lindenwood1Park 5Vandeventer 5North1Hampton 4The1Ville 4Ellendale 3Lafayette1Square 3North1Point 3Benton1Park 2Forest1Park1SE 2Franz1Park 2Holly1Hills 2North1Riverfront 2Southwest1Garden 2Botanical1Heights 1Clifton1Heights 1Covenant'Blu/Grand1Ctr 1Kings1Oak 1St.1Louis1Hills 1Bevo1Mill 0
Skinker'DeBaliviere 8Walnut1Park1West 8Fountain1Park 7The1Gate1District 7Columbus1Square 6Patch 6Walnut1Park1East 6Lindenwood1Park 5Vandeventer 5North1Hampton 4The1Ville 4Ellendale 3Lafayette1Square 3North1Point 3Benton1Park 2Forest1Park1SE 2Franz1Park 2Holly1Hills 2North1Riverfront 2Southwest1Garden 2Botanical1Heights 1Clifton1Heights 1Covenant'Blu/Grand1Ctr 1Kings1Oak 1St.1Louis1Hills 1Bevo1Mill 0
Skinker'DeBaliviere 8Walnut1Park1West 8Fountain1Park 7The1Gate1District 7Columbus1Square 6Patch 6Walnut1Park1East 6Lindenwood1Park 5Vandeventer 5North1Hampton 4The1Ville 4Ellendale 3Lafayette1Square 3North1Point 3Benton1Park 2Forest1Park1SE 2Franz1Park 2Holly1Hills 2North1Riverfront 2Southwest1Garden 2Botanical1Heights 1Clifton1Heights 1Covenant'Blu/Grand1Ctr 1Kings1Oak 1St.1Louis1Hills 1Bevo1Mill 0
Skinker'DeBaliviere 8Walnut1Park1West 8Fountain1Park 7The1Gate1District 7Columbus1Square 6Patch 6Walnut1Park1East 6Lindenwood1Park 5Vandeventer 5North1Hampton 4The1Ville 4Ellendale 3Lafayette1Square 3North1Point 3Benton1Park 2Forest1Park1SE 2Franz1Park 2Holly1Hills 2North1Riverfront 2Southwest1Garden 2Botanical1Heights 1Clifton1Heights 1Covenant'Blu/Grand1Ctr 1Kings1Oak 1St.1Louis1Hills 1Bevo1Mill 0
Compton'Heights 0Mark'Twain 0Shaw 0Tiffany 0Wydown:Skinker 0Boulevard'Heights :1Carondelet :1Clayton:Tamm :1Hi:Point :1Near'N.'Riverfront :1Riverview :1South'Hampton :1Tower'Grove'South :1Mark'Twain'I:70'Ind. :2The'Hill :2Central'West'End :3Cheltenham :3DeBaliviere'Place :3Soulard :3Carr'Square :4Fox'Park :4Princeton'Heights :4Mount'Pleasant :5College'Hill :6Penrose :6Marine'Villa :8La'Salle :11
Change in Gun Assaults in St. Louis Neighborhoods, 2014 – 2015 (January – August)
Drug Market Expansion
• Heroin use up – Mainly from market entrants in search of
prescription pain relievers who switch to heroin – Heroin-related deaths in St. Louis rose 661%
between 2005 and 2013 (from 31 to 236) • More buyers attract more sellers, more
disputes, more violence
Source: CDC
US Heroin Abuse and Death Rates, 2002 - 2013
Source: Proceedings of the Community Epidemiology Work Group
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2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Heroin and Cocaine Related Deaths in St. Louis and St. Louis County, 2000 - 2013
Heroin
Cocaine
Responses
Hot Spots Policing • Logic model
– Crime is spatially concentrated – Criminals tend to avoid the police – Increase police presence where crime is heavily concentrated
• Two roles of the police – Sentry role – Apprehension role
• Single most effective enforcement strategy for reducing crime
• How does it work? – Deterrence through opportunity reduction
Hot Spot Policing in St. Louis – I
St. Louis Public Safety Partnership and the “315” Field Experiment
Design and Results* • 32 firearm violence hot spots randomly allocated
to treatment and control conditions – Treatment = elevated police patrols and related activity
• Nine-month intervention (March – November 2012)
• Substantial reduction in firearm assaults – 71% drop in treatment areas v. 14% drop in control
areas • No reduction in firearm robbery attributable to the
experiment • No displacement effects
* See Rosenfeld, Deckard, and Blackburn (2014)
Hot Spot Policing in St. Louis - II
SLMPD Homicide Deterrence Initiative
Design • 12 areas selected for intervention based on incidence of
firearm violence • Patrols enhanced during peak crime hours – Vehicle checkpoints used in some areas
• Intervention lasted one month (August 24 – September 23, 2012)
• Evaluation strategy – Crimes in HDI areas during intervention compared with
crimes in Non-HDI areas over same period 2011, prior month, 12-month average
– Crime trends during evenings/nights compared with crime trends during daytime in HDI areas
Results for Target Crimes* • HDI Areas – 68% reduction over same period 2011 – 68% reduction over prior month – 64% reduction over prior 12-month average
• Non-HDI Areas – 12% reduction over same period 2011 – 7% reduction over prior month – 12% reduction over prior 12-month average
*Homicide, firearm assault (non-domestic), firearm robbery
Source: St. Louis Public Safety Partnership and SLMPD Crime Analysis
74# 72#67#
42#
48# 47#
57#
79#
72#
82#
73#76#
24#
0#
10#
20#
30#
40#
50#
60#
70#
80#
90#
Aug24/Sep23#
Oct24/Nov23#
Dec24/Jan23#
Feb24/Mar23#
Ap24r/May23#
Jun24/Jul23#
Aug24/Sep23#
Target#Crimes#in#HDI#Areas#by#Month,!!August#24,#2011#/#September#23,#2012#
HDI#Target#Crimes##=#Non/DomesMc#Homicide,#Firearm#Assault,#Firearm#Robbery#
Source: St. Louis Public Safety Partnership and SLMPD Crime Analysis
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Aug24/Sep23"
Oct24/Nov23"
Dec24/Jan23"
Feb24/Mar23"
Ap24r/May23"
Jun24/Jul23"
Aug24/Sep23"
Target"Crimes"in"HDI"and"Non/HDI"Areas"by"Month,"August"24,"2011"/"September"23,"2012"
"
Target"Crimes""="Non/DomesNc"Homicide,"Firearm"Assault,"Firearm"Robbery"
Non/HDI"Areas" HDI"Areas"
HDI"
198$
175$
74$
24$
76$
189$
Avg.$=$198$
Avg.$=$66$
Conclusions
• HDI effective in reducing firearm violence – Reductions in target crimes in HDI areas 5-10
times greater than in Non-HDI areas • Smaller reductions in other crimes • Challenge to hot spots enforcement: Sustaining
crime reductions over time with available resources
Focused Deterrence
Logic Model
• Focus on a particular community problem (e.g., gun violence)
• Focus on particular problem groups (e.g., gangs) • Create interagency enforcement and support
group (e.g., police, prosecutors, judges, corrections, service providers, family, clergy)
• Hold community meetings to strengthen and disseminate antiviolence “norms and narratives”
Logic Model, cont.
• Communicate directly and repeatedly with members of the target group (e.g., home visits, “call-ins”) – Special deterrence – General deterrence (“spill-over” effects) – Opportunity enhancement (e.g., education,
training, treatment, housing assistance, job placement)
• Evaluate outcomes, preferably by randomized controlled studies
Hot Places, Hot People
Combining the Insights and Strategies of Hot Spots Policing and Focused Deterrence
Focus on People-in-Places
• Identify gun violence hot spots • Identify most active offenders and associates
in those places • Enhance place-based police patrols • Focused interventions with most active
offenders – Criminal opportunity reduction – Legitimate opportunity enhancement
Conclusion • Basic principles – Go directly and repeatedly to the problem places and
problem people – Stay until the problem abates – Return periodically to limit “regression to the
mean” (backsliding) – Evaluate, recalibrate, repeat
• The dual hot-places, hot-people strategy can be adapted to any crime problem, not just gun assault
• Consider ways to reward officers for crime reduction
Further Reading Maxwell, Jane Carlisle. 2015. The pain reliever and heroin epidemic in the
United States: Shifting winds in the perfect storm. Journal of Addictive Diseases 34: 127-140.
Braga, Anthony A., and David L. Weisburd. Focused deterrence and the prevention of violent gun injuries: Practice, theoretical principles, and scientific evidence. Annual Review of Public Health 36: 55–68.
Kennedy, David M. 2009. Deterrence and Crime Prevention. New York: Routledge.
Rosenfeld, Richard, Michael Deckard, and Emily Blackburn. 2014. The effects of directed patrol and self-initiated enforcement on firearm violence: A randomized controlled study of hot spot policing. Criminology 52: 428-449.
Weisburd, David, Elizabeth R. Groff, and Sue-Ming Yang. 2012. The Criminology of Place: Street Segments and Our Understanding of the Crime Problem. Oxford: Oxford University Press.