guido di tella memorial lecturepersonal.lse.ac.uk/tenreyro/gdtslides.pdf · 2021. 6. 23. · guido...
TRANSCRIPT
Silvana Tenreyro
Guido Di Tella Memorial Lecture
Economic Challenges to Latin America from the Pandemic
May 2021,
Latin American Centre, University of Oxford
The Pandemic
➢ Health and economic outcomes
➢ Long term scarring: education
➢ Policy space in the recovery: a role for monetary policy
25 May 2021
1. Looking back, the pandemic has hit Latin America particularly hard
25 May 2021
Covid-19 mortality has been high in Latin America
3Source: Our World in Data. Regional breakdown is for South America rather than LA. But Mexico has similar figures to South America.
Latin American economies were hit hard by the pandemic
25 May 2021 4Source: IMF April 2021 WEO.
Latin American fiscal policy has loosened less than in AEs
25 May 2021 5Source: IMF April 2021 WEO.
2. In the near term, Latin America will likely recover more slowly than advanced economies
25 May 2021
Latin America’s vaccine rollout is lagging AEs
25 May 2021 7Source: Our World In Data.
3. In the medium term, Latin America is likely to experience more scarring than advanced economies
25 May 2021
More Scarring expected in Latin America than in AEs
25 May 2021 9Source: IMF, Bank calculations.
More learning scarring expected in Latin America
25 May 2021 10Source: IMF, Bank calculations.
➢School closures for longer
➢Unequal impact, limited online access to education
➢Life-changing impact on skills, nutrition, physical and mental health, etc.
Latin American education already underperformed pre-pandemic
25 May 2021 11Source: World Bank, 2018 PISA scores for reading, math and science.
4. Focus on education to reduce scarring and use monetary policy to help along recovery
25 May 2021