Guidance document on Water and Climate adaptation (TFWC/2007/3)

Jos G. Timmerman

Rijkswaterstaat Centre for Water Management

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 2

Climate-proofing

Assessing the resilience of water management and water services to cope with climate change

Challenges for water managementScenarios and forecasts – possible futuresUncertainties and how to deal with them

Assessing risksAssessing cost-effectiveness of coping measures

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 3

Adaptive building Germany

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 4

Contents

Methodologies for climate impact assessment of a basinVulnerability assessmentCoping measures development (options and cost effectiveness)

Prevention measuresImproving resistance/resiliencePreparation to extreme eventsResponse to extreme eventsPreparedness for recovery or aftercare

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 5

Contents

Methodologies for climate impact assessment of a basinVulnerability assessmentCoping measures development (options and cost effectiveness)

Prevention measuresImproving resistance/resiliencePreparation to extreme eventsResponse to extreme eventsPreparedness for recovery or aftercare

Link between climate models / scenarios and hydrological models Downscaling of models Overview of potential impacts

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 6

Contents

Methodologies for climate impact assessment of a basinVulnerability assessment

Range from biophysical hazards to social impacts of hazardsInformation needs assessment: climate information needed on strategic (10-50 years) , tactical (6-9 months) and operational scales (daily-weekly)

Link between climate models / scenarios and hydrological models Downscaling of models Overview of potential impacts

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 7

Contents

Coping measures development (options and cost effectiveness)

Prevention measuresAnticipatoryPrevent or moderate effects of extreme eventsForecastsDeal with immediate threats (e.g. early warning)

Vulnerability assessmentRange from biophysical hazards to social impacts of hazardsInformation needs assessment: climate information needed on strategic (10-50 years) , tactical (6-9 months) and operational scales (daily-weekly)

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 8

Contents

Coping measures development (options and cost effectiveness)

Prevention measuresAnticipatoryPrevent or moderate effects of extreme eventsForecastsDeal with immediate threats (e.g. early warning)

Improving resistance/resilienceDroughts: e.g. improve irrigation, desalinization, improved groundwater management strategyFloods: e.g. dam safety, restricted development in flood risk zones, land use planning

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 9

Contents

Coping measures development (options and cost effectiveness)

Prevention measuresImproving resistance/resilience

Droughts: e.g. improve irrigation, desalinization, improved groundwater management strategyFloods: e.g. dam safety, restricted development in flood risk zones, land use planning

PreparationPrepare for effects: e.g. awareness raising, legislation, institutional arrangements

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 10

Contents

Coping measures development (options and cost effectiveness)

Prevention measuresImproving resistance/resiliencePreparation

Prepare for effects: e.g. awareness raising, legislation, institutional arrangements

Response to extreme eventsHazard management: e.g. evacuation measures, emergency medical care, safe drinking water distribution

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 11

Contents

Coping measures development (options and cost effectiveness)

Prevention measuresImproving resistance/resiliencePreparationResponse to extreme events

Hazard management: e.g. evacuation measures, emergency medical care, safe drinking water distribution

Preparedness for recovery or aftercareRehabilitation options: e.g. reconstruction of infrastructure, insurance, policies

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 12

Analysis framework

Type of decision

Climate Weather

Long Term (10-50 yrs)

Medium Term (6-9 months)

Short Term (0-10days)

Decadal changes

Seasonal Forecasts

Real Time

Strategic - Infrastructure planning

- Regulations- Land use

planning

Tactical - Water allocations to agriculture

- dam operations

Operational

- dam operations

- flood warning

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 13

Relevant activities and background documentation

Conclusions from the International Symposium “Time To Adapt. Climate Change and the European Water Dimension”EU Green paperEEA report on climate change and water adaptation issuesUNECE Guidelines on Sustainable Flood Prevention and Model provisions on transboundary flood management Reporting and national adaptation plans under the UNFCCCOutcomes of The Third International Conference on Climate and Water; September 2007, Helsinki, FinlandWork done by EXCIFF and EXCIMAP Towards a climate-proof Netherlands, Summary Route plannerAny available studies on impact of climate change in EECCA and SEE countries

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 14

Items for discussion

Is the proposed content complete?Additional issues?Irrelevant issues?

Possible examples?Editorial team?….

Task Force on Water and ClimateBonn, Germany, 22-23 November 2007 15

Thank you