growth potential for philippine aquaculture

8/6/2019 Growth Potential for Philippine Aquaculture

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Growth Potential forPhilippine Aquaculture:

2005-2025

Philip S. Cruz

Cruz Aquaculture Corporation

Bacolod City, Philippines


2/25

Philippine fisheries production,

1995-2004

1

9

9

5

1

9

9

6

1

9

9

7

1

9

9

8

1

9

9

9

2

0

0

0

2

0

0

1

2

0

0

2

2

0

0

3

2

0

0

4

0

0 .5

1

1 .5

2

M

illion

M

T

Ye a r

M un ic ipa l

C om m erc ia l

A quac u l tu re

43.7%


3/25

S e a w e e d s

71%

Milkfish

16%

Ti l a p i a

8%

M a r ine F i sh

0.1%S hrim p

2%

O the rs

2%

C a rp

1%

Aquaculture species, 2004


4/25

Food fish production, 2004

(excluding seaweeds)

Aquaculture

Municipal

Commercial

19% (0.51 Million MT)



In 2004, capture fisheries provided 81% of thecountrys domestic food fish supply, while the

balance of 19% came from aquaculture


5/25

Status of Philippine

capture fisheries In 2004, capture fisheries (municipal +

commercial) landed a total of 2.2 million MT,which is 16% higher than the MSY of 1.9 millionMT established in several scientific studies.

In is widely believed by the scientific communitythat the growth rate achieved in the last 5 years(3.35%) is not anymore sustainable.

In the coming years, fish supply would have tocome increasingly from AQUACULTURE if thecountry is to remain self-reliant in food fishsupply.


6/25

Philippine imports of skipjack

tuna, mackerels, and sardines

0

2 0 , 0 0 0

4 0 , 0 0 0

6 0 , 0 0 0

8 0 , 0 0 0

1 0 0 , 0 0 0

1 2 0 , 0 0 0

1 4 0 , 0 0 0

1 6 0 , 0 0 0

Volum

e(MT)

1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2

Year

Sk i p j a c k t u n a ,

f rozen

M a c k e re ls n e i,

f rozen

Sa rd i n e s ,s ard ine l las , b r is l ing

or spra ts , f rozen


7/25

Aquaculture production trend,

1995-2004

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Year

MetricTons

A quac ulture (total)

Aquaculture (excluding

seaw eeds)


8/25

Cultured food fish, 2004


9/25

Apparent per capita seafoodconsumption in selected

countries (in kg, 95-97 average)Maldives 169.8 Taiwan 37.3

Palau 102.4 Thailand 32.4

Iceland 91.1 Singapore 32.4

Japan 69.0 Philippines 31.0

Portugal 59.8 France 28.4

Hong Kong 56.6 UAE 27.4

Malaysia 55.7 Peru 25.4

S. Korea 51.2 China 24.1

Norway 50.1 Canada 22.2

Spain 40.5 USA 20.9


10/25

Food consumption trends,

Philippines

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Percent of

total food

intake

1993 2003

Year

Fish and products

Meat and products

Poultry


11/25

Aquaculture is now the fastest growing sectorof animal meat production worldwide

Average annual percentage growth rate from1970 to 2000:

Aquaculture = 8.5%

Capture fisheries = 1.4% Terrestrial farmed animals = 2.8%

Chicken = 5.1%

Hog = 3.1%

Beef and veal = 1.3%

Mutton and lamb = 1.1%

From 1992 to 2002, apparent per capitaconsumption of seafoods worldwide increased

by 21%, from 13.1 kg to 16.2 kg.


12/25

222,179 220,848 246,429 270,764 301,409 334,090 376,727 414,597 447,897 499,824 517,507 550,368 600,414

102,810 107,770 112,920 118,000 128,000 125,749 140,047 152,617 163,217 160,076 165,104 167,899 183,061

570,474 608,442 633,523 629,454 660,943 692,762 739,121 806,754 784,580 804,293 803,412 818,330 832,992

96,780 101,630 107,000 117,025 123,811 144,723 166,100 175,925 183,505 192,592 210,993 226,863 237,743

129,097 86,643 99,978 111,932 135,840 134,063 151,656 218,191 260,191 291,719 353,333 370,974 457,314

13,042 15,329 22,712 25,453 34,617 49,392 55,379 88,268 115,191 150,583 160,705 131,102 164,499

799 2,256 735 1,811 2,573 4,609 4,758 9,240 15,360 32,447 47,579 68,474 86,442

230,111 261,725 268,483 326,453 323,573 372,191 383,259 357,614 369,027 315,448 363,504 413,531 417,418

269,099 298,514 340,167 336,257 312,688 302,055 340,131 343,059 360,624 379,940 408,618 386,876 392,072

21,000 24,000 25,000 27,000 41,846 45,500 46,400 52,200 60,500 61,916 61,617 63,895 54,100

321,757 287,274 298,102 295,661 393,042 428,212 477,455 457,057 404,493 376,683 342,439 375,507 392,175

191,216 206,719 230,653 234,924 240,743 256,811 299,897 294,339 240,411 333,370 282,553 249,956 277,211

,472,553 1,702,860 1,982,859 2,439,982 3,150,594 3,962,273 4,865,503 5,630,454 6,045,327 6,482,402 6,881,398 8,256,487 ########

406,622 452,939 504,733 572,000 633,250 686,260 788,310 893,330 1,004,500 1,017,136 1,225,261 1,395,444 1,416,702

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

Year

MT

Indonesia

Viet Nam

JapanBangladesh

Thailand

Norway

Chile

USA

Philippines

Egypt

South Korea

Taiwan

Top 12 countries in aquaculture, byvolume, without China and India

(excluding seaweeds)


13/25

0%

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

Percentshare

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

YearCapture

Aquaculture

The global picture:projected growth in aquaculture,

2004-2017 (excluding seaweeds)

As early as2017,aquaculturescontributionto world fishsupply may

alreadyexceed thatof capturefisheries.


14/25

Philippine Aquaculture:

Production and GrowthPotential of for Domesticand Export Markets


15/25

Water ResourceTotal Area

(Ha)

Area

Suitable for

Aquaculture

Percent

Utilization

Potential

Available

Area (Ha)

BW ponds - low density 189,323 100% 100% 189,323

BW ponds - high density 50,000 100% 100% 50,000

FW ponds 14,531 100% 100% 14,531

Laguna Lake 90,000 50% 10% 4,500

Other lakes 110,000 25% 10% 2,750

Reservoirs 19,000 25% 10% 475

Rivers 31,000 10% 10% 310FW swamplands 106,328 25% 10% 2,658

BW swamplands 139,735 25% 10% 3,493

Coastal waters 1,746,000 10% 10% 17,460

Total, excluding coastal 749,917 268,041

All water resources 2,495,917 285,501

Water ResourceTotal Area

(Ha)

% Area

Usable for

Aquaculture

% Utililizable

of Usable

Potential

Available

Area (Ha)

BW ponds - low density 189,323 100% 100% 189,323

BW ponds - high density 50,000 100% 100% 50,000

FW ponds 14,531 100% 100% 14,531

Laguna Lake 90,000 50% 10% 4,500

Other lakes 110,000 25% 10% 2,750

Reservoirs 19,000 25% 10% 475

Rivers 31,000 10% 10% 310FW swamplands 106,328 25% 10% 2,658

BW swamplands 139,735 25% 10% 3,493

Coastal waters 1,746,000 10% 10% 17,460

Total, excluding coastal 749,917 268,041

All water resources 2,495,917 285,501

Area

Water resources available andpotential utilization for aquaculture


16/25

Water Resource

Target

Yield/Ha/

Yr (MT)

Current

Yield/Yr

(MT)

Target

Yield/Yr

(MT)

Potential

Increase

(MT)

Share of

Potential

Increase

BW ponds - low density 2 251,744 378,646 126,902 1.5%BW ponds - high density 5 3,000 250,000 247,000 2.9%

FW ponds 8 71,970 116,248 44,278 0.5%

Laguna Lake 25 35,833 112,500 76,667 0.9%

Other lakes 150 49,832 412,500 362,668 4.3%

Reservoirs 150 3,000 71,250 68,250 0.8%

Rivers 150 15,000 46,500 31,500 0.4%FW swamplands 150 10 398,730 398,720 4.7%

BW swamplands 150 10 524,006 523,996 6.2%

Coastal waters 375 12,120 6,547,500 6,535,380 77.7%

Total, excluding coastal 430,399 2,310,380 1,879,981 22.3%

All water resources 442,519 8,857,880 8,415,361 100.0%

Potential yield of water resourcesfrom aquaculture


17/25

Projections for industry growth:

2006-2025 2.36% population growth

Increasing per capita fish consumption from32 kg in 2005 to 36 kg in 2025 (inc. of 0.2 kg/yr)

20% of production exported by 2025 Declining growth in capture fisheries:

Period Municipal Commercial

2006-2010 0.92%* 2.80%*2011-2015 0.69% 2.10%

2016-2020 0.52% 1.58%

2021-2025 0.39% 1.18%

* based on 1995-2004 APR


18/25

Domestic demand for food fish

By 2025, there will be 137 million Filipinos requiring4.9 million MT of seafoods

Capture fisheries may be able to provide only 2.93million MT, an increased of 0.64 million MT over 2005

Production from aquaculture would have to rise to 2.0

million MT, an increase of 1.5 million MT over 2005

Projections 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Philippine population 85,967,830 96,602,275 108,552,227 121,980,420 137,069,715

Per capita consumption (kg) 32.0 33.0 34.0 35.0 36.0

Food fish requirement (mt) 2,750,971 3,187,875 3,690,776 4,269,315 4,934,510

Municipal fisheries (mt) 1,090,642 1,141,744 1,181,681 1,212,575 1,236,290

Commercial fisheries (mt) 1,159,995 1,331,747 1,477,578 1,597,661 1,694,279

Aquaculture (mt) 500,333 714,384 1,031,516 1,459,078 2,003,941

- Inc. from previous year (m 38,686 45,693 67,815 91,251 115,992

- Inc. in 5 years (mt) 214,051 317,132 427,562 544,862

- APR (%) 8.4 6.8 7.0 6.7 6.1


19/25

Food fish 25,000 MT 500,000 MT

Projected aquaculture exports, at

20% of total production (in MT)Species 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Share2005

Seaweeds 64,383 78,332 104,825 154,023 226,310 31.0%

Milkfish 3,000 8,727 24,481 49,142 83,626 11.4%

Tilapia - 4,684 13,140 26,377 44,886 6.1%

Shrimp 16,000 35,010 88,021 141,759 208,290 28.4%

Mar. fish/mollusc 5,000 7,025 11,278 45,890 142,737 19.4%

Others 1,000 2,780 7,097 13,586 23,119 3.2%

Total exports 90,782 133,261 251,121 434,125 733,888 100%

Total food fish 25,000 53,227 144,017 276,754 502,658 68.5%


20/25

Projected annual average

percent growth rate, by species(in MT)Species APR 02-04 06-10 11-15 16-20 21-25

Seaweeds 16.2% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 8.0%Milkfish 8.6% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0%

Tilapia 9.3% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0%

Shrimp -2.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 8.0%

Carp 2.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%Marine fish/molluscs 46.9% 45.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0%

Others 3.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Growth projection assumes 20% excess in food fish production by

2025 will be for export


21/25

Projected aquaculture production fordomestic consumption and export, by species

(in MT)

Species 2005 2010 2015 2020 202520 Yr.

Growth

Seaweeds 1,399,627 1,702,861 2,278,812 3,348,322 4,919,784 352%

Milkfish 296,986 436,370 612,031 819,036 1,045,321 352%

Tilapia 159,405 234,219 328,504 439,612 561,069 352%

Shrimp 35,174 87,524 176,042 283,518 416,581 1,184%

Carp 14,073 18,833 27,672 44,566 78,540 558%

Mar. fish/molluscs 1,580 10,125 37,593 114,726 285,475 18,072%

Others 43,567 55,604 70,966 90,573 115,596 265%

Total aquaculture 1,950,412 2,545,535 3,531,620 5,142,372 7,422,365 381%

Total food fish 550,785 842,674 1,252,809 1,794,050 2,502,581 454%

APR aquaculture 13.6% 5.5% 6.8% 7.8% 7.6% 6.9%

APR food fish 7.5% 8.9% 8.3% 7.4% 6.9% 7.9%

Species 2005 2025 Growth

Seaweeds 1,399,627 4,919,784 352%Milkfish 296,986 1,045,321 352%Tilapia 159,405 561,069 352%Shrimp 35,174 416,581 1,184%Carp 14,073 78,540 558%Marine fish/molluscs 1,580 285,475 18,072%Others 43,567 115,596 265%Total aquaculture 1,950,412 7,422,365 381%Total food fish 550,785 2,502,581 454%


22/25

Average annual percentage growth of top10 countries in aquaculture, 2000-2002

China 6.3%India 6.2%Indonesia 7.7%

Japan 4.2%Bangladesh 9.4%Thailand -6.5%Norway 6.2%

Chile 18.0%Vietnam 0.8%USA 4.4%

AVERAGE 6.1%

Target growth(APR) for Philippine

aquaculture

2006-2025

Total aquaculture 6.9%

Food fish 7.9%


23/25

Projected food fish supply,

2005-2025

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

05 10 15 20 25

Year

Volume(MT)

Projected demand at

36 kg per caput

Aquaculture +

capture

Aquaculture +

capture - exports

Capture fisheries

production


24/25

Contribution of aquaculture to

food fish supply, 2025

Municipal

25%

Commericial

34%

Aquaculture

41%

By 2025, contribution of aquaculture to food fish

supply is projected to rise to 41% from 19% in 2004


25/25

End

growth potential for philippine aquaculture

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