growth opportunities in ndt
TRANSCRIPT
Looking for Growth Opportunities in NDT? Turn to BRIC Countries
Vijay Mathew, Industry Analyst
Test & Measurement
December 16, 2010
Today’s Presenters
Vijay Mathew, Industry Analyst
Frost & Sullivan
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Focus Points
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33
44
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Global NDT Market - A Bird’s Eye ViewGlobal NDT Market - A Bird’s Eye View
GDP Growth Rate ComparisonGDP Growth Rate Comparison
Revenue Analysis and Forecasts Revenue Analysis and Forecasts
Market Overview & SegmentationMarket Overview & Segmentation
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66 End User AnalysisEnd User Analysis
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Revenue Analysis and Forecasts Revenue Analysis and Forecasts
Market Trend AnalysisMarket Trend Analysis
77 List of Major Industry Participants List of Major Industry Participants
Market Overview & Segmentation
Total Nondestructive Test Equipment Market
Base Year : 2009Forecast Period : 2009 – 2014Geographic Focus : BRIC Countries
Broken Down by Region – Brazil, Russia, India and China
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Market RevenueForecasts
End UserAnalysis
Product Analysis
End User Analysis Includes
• Automotive
• Aerospace
• Oil & gas
• Power generation
• Foundry
Product Analysis Includes
• Ultrasonic inspection
• Eddy current inspection
• Visual inspection
• Surface inspection
• Radiography inspection
By 2014 BRIC Will Account 35.0 Percent of Global NDT Equipment Revenues
$339.1 million
$400.0 million
2009 CAGR: 3.4%
$351.3 million
$416.2 million
2009 CAGR: 3.6%
North AmericaNorth AmericaEuropeEurope
2014
2014
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$298.6 million
$472.6 million
2009 CAGR: 9.5%
BRICBRIC
2014
Emerging Economies in 2030: N11, BRIC to be the Next Manufacturing Hubs with Fastest GDP Growths
Regional comparison of GDP size (in $ billion) against YoY Growth Rate, 2009-2030
Gro
wth
Rate
(%
) 3.0
4.0
G-7
BRIC
N-11 �
�
GDP Growth, 2009-2030
5.0BRIC
6.0
G-7
2009
US$8,890.9 bn
2030US$31,952.0 bn
BRIC
N-11
CAGR (2009-2030): 6.6%
CAGR (2009-2030): 4.2%
‘N-11’s clout in global economy is expected to increase, while BRIC will be a key dominator’
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Source: IMF, Bloomberg, Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace,
Goldman Sachs, OECD, CIA World
Factbook and Frost & Sullivan Analysis
2009US$32,026.8 bn
Gro
wth
Rate
(%
)
3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 25000 35000 40000
-(3.0)
-(2.0)
-(1.0)
2.0
45000
CAGR (2009-2030): 1.5%
GDP in ($ billion)
~2030
US$42,837.0 bn
G-7
G-7
2009US$4,357.4 bn
N-11
2030
US$9,913.7 bn
G-7 includes: France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States, Canada; BRIC includes: Brazil, Russia, India and China; N-11 includes: Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, Vietnam
Market Trend Analysis:
NDT Equipment Market – Market Trends (BRIC), 2009-2014
In 2009, approximately 79.0 percent of total electricity generated in Brazil
came from hydroelectric power plants.
Russia continues to remain a difficult market for
western NDT equipment manufacturers to
penetrate despite numerous opportunities.
Bureaucratic hurdles continue to remain a
major obstacle for its market growth
potential
Brazil
Russia
India
Petrobras and Embraer –
Biggest drivers for NDT
equipment market.
India, it is a price conscious
market with considerable
emphasis being placed on
India’s industrial and economic
growth has increased it’s reliance
on alternate sources of energy.
U.S-India Nuclear Deal is expected to
give rise to considerable opportunities
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In November 2009, China
officially became the world’s
largest auto market
China
emphasis being placed on
value for moneyon alternate sources of energy.
give rise to considerable opportunities
to NDT equipment vendors
China’s unprecedented economic growth has led to double-digit
expansion of its energy, infrastructure, manufacturing, construction
and transportation industries.
Rank 2004 2006 2008 2009
1 USA JPN JPN CHN
2 JPN USA CHN JPN
3 GER CHN USA USA
4 CHN GER GER GER
Ranks in terms of Vehicle Production (World), 2004-2009
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Revenue Analysis and Forecasts
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
Revenues ($Million)
472.6
298.6
2009
45.2%
17.6%
22.6%
14.5%
China Russia India Brazil
CAGR 5.2%
CAGR 8.3%
CAGR 7.0%
NDT Equipment Market: Forecasts by Region (BRIC), 2009-2014
NDT Equipment Market: Percent of Revenues by Region (BRIC), 2009-2014
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0.0
100.0
200.0
2009 2014Year
Revenues ($Million)
China Russia India Brazil
2014
51.6%
14.3%
21.3%
12.8%
China Russia India Brazil
CAGR 12.5%
� Among BRIC countries, China is expected to exhibit strongest growth with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5 percent.
� By 2014 it is expected that China will account for over 50.0 percent of overall revenues.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Market Drivers and Restraints: Infrastructure Development Drives NDT Market in BRIC
Market Drivers
•Rapid rate of infrastructure development in BRIC countries
NDT Equipment Market: Market Drivers and Restraints (BRIC), 2009-2014
•Military spending to drive NDT equipment sales
IMPACT
1-2 Years 3-4Years 5 Years
High High High
High
Medium
High
High
High
Medium•Transportation industry drives demand for NDT equipment
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•Education end user segment creates opportunities
Market Restraints
•Bureaucratic delays and corruption restricts growth potential
•Lack of end-user knowledge about product differentiation
Medium LowMedium
High Medium
Medium
Medium Medium Medium
Medium
•Price conscious nature of customers
• Current state of the global economy
High
High
Medium Low Low
End User Analysis
80.0
90.0
Revenues ($ Million)
Traditional a strong market, aerospace & defence will drive testequipment revenues with expanding military budgets and therise of the civil aviation sector.
The automotive industries of Brazil, Russia, India and China isexcepted to contribute strongly to market revenues during theforecast period.
Russia is the worlds largest producer of oil & gas,an industry that drives demand for advanced NDTsolutions
To sustain industrial growth, countries are turning
to alternate sources of energy. Reliance on
NDT Equipment Market: End User Analysis (BRIC), 2009
10
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Automotive Aerospace Oil & Gas PowerGenration
Foundry Others
Revenues ($ Million)
Revenues by End-user in 2009
to alternate sources of energy. Reliance on
nuclear, wind and hydroelectric energy is expected
to rise significantly by 2020.
The others
segment which
includes
transportation,
construction,
machinery,
government and
educational/
research
institutions
Source: Frost & Sullivan
List of Major Industry Participants
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For Additional Information
Sarah Saatzer
Corporate Communications
Measurement & Instrumentation
(210) 477-8427
Vijay Mathew
Industry Analyst
Measurement & [email protected]
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Kiran Unni
Research Manager
Measurement & Instrumentation
(210) 247-2495
Jessy Cavazos
Industry Director
Measurement & Instrumentation
325.695.6332