growth of orbital debris - nasa

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Growth of Orbital Debris

J.-C. Liou, PhDNASA Chief Scientist for Orbital Debris

The 4th ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Workshop on Space SecuritySingapore, 24-25 October 2016


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Presentation Outline

• Historical and Current Orbital Debris Environment

• Danger of Orbital Debris

• Orbital Debris Mitigation Policy


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The Space Age

• The first human-made satellite, Sputnik, was launched to study the atmosphere by the Soviet Union on October 4th, 1957

• Since then, more than 4700 launches have ben conducted worldwide

• Benefits of space activities– Communications– Environment and weather monitoring– Explorations– Technology advancements– Many others

• But…Sputnik


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What is Orbital Debris

• Orbital debris is any human-made object in orbit about the Earth that no longer serves any useful purpose

10 m 100 m 10 cm 1 m 10 m1 mm 1 cmSize (diameter)

R/Bs, S/C

Breakup Fragments

Mission-related Debris

Al2O3 (slag)Al2O3

Meteoroids

NaK

Paint Flakes MLI Pieces

Orb

ital D

ebris

Objects in the Near-Earth Environment


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The Near-Earth Space Environment

• Only objects in the U.S. satellite catalog (~10 cm and larger) are shown• Sizes of the dots are not to scale


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How Much Debris is Currently Up There?

Softball size or larger (≥10 cm): ~23,000(tracked by the U.S. Joint Space Operations Center, JSpOC)

Marble size or larger (≥1 cm): ~500,000

Dot or larger (≥1 mm): >100,000,000(a grain of salt)

• Due to high impact speed in space (~10 km/sec in LEO), even sub-millimeter debris pose a realistic threat to human spaceflight and robotic missions 10 km/sec = 22,000 miles per hour (the speed of a bullet ~1,500 miles per hour) 5-mm aluminum sphere @ 7 km/sec could penetrate a 2.54-cm thick aluminum wall

• Total mass: >7000 tons LEO-to-GEO (~2700 tons in LEO)


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Destruction of Fengyun-1C

Collision of Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33

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Growth of the Cataloged Population

• The JSpOC is currently tracking ~23,000 large objects and maintains most of their orbits in the U.S. Satellite Catalog

Only ~1400 are operational


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Mass in Near-Earth Space Continues to Increase

• The material mass in Earth orbit continues to increase and has exceeded 7000 metric tons

No sign of slowing down!


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Threat from Orbital Debris - Examples

• The gravity-gradient boom of an operational French satellite (CERISE) was cut in half by a tracked debris fragment in 1996

• The fully operational Iridium 33 was destroyed by the retired Russian Cosmos 2251 in 2009

• Near the end of the Space Shuttle Program, the Loss of Crew and Vehicle risks from MMOD impact damage were in the range of 1 in 250 to 1 in 300 per mission (OD to MM ~2:1 at ISS altitude)

• Impacts by small, untracked debris could be responsible for many satellite anomalies– A 17-cm Russian retro reflector, BLITS,

was damaged and shed a piece of trackabledebris in January 2013

– The European Space Agency’s Sentinel-1 was hitby a small debris, leading to some power lossand 6 trackable debris in August 2016

BLITS

Impact damage onSentinel-1 solar panel

Image Credit: ESA


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Robotic Spacecraft CollisionAvoidance Maneuvers

• The U.S. JSpOC conducts conjunction assessments and provides warnings to all satellite owners/operators around the world

• Since 2007 NASA has required frequent satellite conjunction assessments for all of its maneuverable spacecraft in LEO and GEO to avoid accidental collisions with objects tracked by JSpOC

• NASA also assists other U.S. government and foreign spacecraft owners with conjunction assessments and subsequent avoidance maneuvers


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ISS Collision Avoidance Maneuvers

• The International Space Station (ISS) has conducted 25 debris collision avoidance maneuvers since 1999– Including 4 debris collision avoidance

maneuvers and 1 shelter-in-Soyuz in 2015


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U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Policy and Standard Practices

• NASA was the first organization to develop orbital debris mitigation policy and guidelines in the 1990s

• NASA and the Department of Defense (DOD) led the effort to establish the U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices (approved in 2001)

• The U.S. National Space Policy of 2006 and 2010 directs agencies and departments to implement the U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices– Control of debris released during normal operations– Minimizing debris generated by accidental explosions– Selection of safe flight profile and operational configuration– Postmission disposal of space structures


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International Orbital Debris Mitigation

• Many major spacefaring nations have established orbital debris mitigation policies similar to the U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices

• The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) established the first consensus on international orbital debris mitigation guidelines in 2002– IADC members: ASI, CNES, CNSA, CSA, DLR, ESA, ISRO, JAXA,

KARI, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, SSAU, and UKSA

• The United Nations (UN) adopted a similar set of space debris mitigation guidelines in 2007

• The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) developed its space debris mitigation requirements in 2010


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Forward Challenges

• The international space community needs to follow the existing orbital debris mitigation guidelines to limit the generation of new and long-lived debris

• Proliferation of small satellites, including CubeSats and the proposed mega-constellations, presents new challenges to preserve the environment while continuing to use near-Earth space to benefits the global community

Pre-1957 2016 2116+

growth of orbital debris - nasa

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