growth and inclusion: the path to shared prosperity - social progress imperative's michael...

Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress

GROWTH & INCLUSION: The path to shared

prosperityMichael Green, World Bank, 23rd March 2015

#wblive


Economic

Development

GDP

Social

Progress

2

WHEN AND HOW DOES ECONOMIC GROWTH LEAD TO

SOCIAL PROGRESS?

THE DUAL CHALLENGES OF DEVELOPMENT


SOMETIMES THAT LINK IS MISSING.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT ALWAYS LEAD TO SOCIAL

PROGRESS…

Economic

Development

GDP

Social

Progress

3



…AND SOMETIMES SOCIAL PROGRESS INFLUENCES ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT.

4

Economic

Development

GDP

Social

Progress



TO UNDERSTAND THIS RELATIONSHIP WE NEED TO MEASURE

SOCIAL PROGRESS DIRECTLY

Social

Progress

?

5



SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX: ADVISORY BOARD

6

Scott Stern

School of Management Distinguished Professor of

Technological Innovation, Entrepreneurship and

Strategic Management, MIT

Judith Rodin

President, The Rockefeller Foundation

Professor Michael E. Porter, Chair

Bishop William Lawrence University Professor

at the Harvard Business School.

Matthew Bishop

The Economist

Hernando de Soto

President, Institute for Liberty and Democracy

Ngaire Woods

Dean, Blavatnik School of Government,

University of Oxford


GROWING MOMENTUM FOR BETTER MEASUREMENT

“In an increasingly performance-oriented society, metrics matter. What we measure affects what we do. If we have the wrong metrics, we will strive for the wrong things.”

Joseph Stiglitz, Amartya Sen, Jean-Paul Fitoussi

Mismeasuring Our Lives

7

Amartya SenJoseph Stiglitz Jean-Paul Fitoussi


SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX: DESIGN PRINCIPLES

8

Exclusively social and

environmental indicators



9

Outcomes – not inputs





10


Relevant to all countries





11


Actionability

Relevant to all countries




WHAT IS SOCIAL PROGRESS?

Social progress is the capacity of a society to meet the basic human needs of its citizens, establish the building blocks that allow citizens and communities to enhance and sustain the quality of their lives, and create the conditions for all individuals to reach

their full potential.

Social Progress Imperative #socialprogress13

Social Progress Index

OpportunityFoundations of WellbeingBasic Human Needs

Nutrition and Basic Medical Care

Water and Sanitation

Shelter

Personal Safety

Access to Basic Knowledge

Access to Information and

Communications

Health and Wellness

Ecosystem Sustainability

Personal Rights

Access to Advanced Education

Personal Freedom and Choice

Tolerance and Inclusion

SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX FRAMEWORK


SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX FRAMEWORK INDICATORS 2014

14

Basic Human Needs Opportunity

Nutrition and Basic Medical Care Undernourishment

Depth of food deficit

Maternal mortality rate

Stillbirth rate

Child mortality rate

Deaths from infectious diseases

Water and Sanitation Access to piped water

Rural vs. urban access to improved water source

Access to improved sanitation facilities

Shelter Availability of affordable housing

Access to electricity

Quality of electricity supply

Indoor air pollution attributable deaths

Personal Safety Homicide rate

Level of violent crime

Perceived criminality

Political terror

Traffic deaths

Access to Basic Knowledge Adult literacy rate

Primary school enrollment

Lower secondary school enrollment

Upper secondary school enrollment

Gender parity in secondary enrollment

Access to Information and Communications Mobile telephone subscriptions

Internet users

Press Freedom Index

Health and Wellness Life expectancy

Non-communicable disease deaths between the ages of 30 and 70

Obesity rate

Outdoor air pollution attributable deaths

Suicide rate

Ecosystem Sustainability Greenhouse gas emissions

Water withdrawals as a percent of resources

Biodiversity and habitat

Personal Rights Political rights

Freedom of speech

Freedom of assembly/association

Freedom of movement

Private property rights

Personal Freedom and Choice Freedom over life choices

Freedom of religion

Modern slavery, human trafficking and child marriage

Satisfied demand for contraception

Corruption

Tolerance and Inclusion Women treated with respect

Tolerance for immigrants

Tolerance for homosexuals

Discrimination and violence against minorities

Religious tolerance

Community safety net

Access to Advanced Education Years of tertiary schooling

Women’s average years in school

Inequality in the attainment of education

Number of globally ranked universities


Foundations of Wellbeing



Nutrition and Basic Medical Care Undernourishment Depth of food deficit Maternal mortality rate Stillbirth rate Child mortality rate Deaths from infectious diseases

Water and Sanitation Access to piped water Rural vs. urban access to improved water

source Access to improved sanitation facilities

Shelter Availability of affordable housing Access to electricity Quality of electricity supply Indoor air pollution attributable deaths

Personal Safety Homicide rate Level of violent crime Perceived criminality Political terror Traffic deaths

Access to Basic Knowledge Adult literacy rate Primary school enrollment Lower secondary school enrollment Upper secondary school enrollment Gender parity in secondary enrollment

Access to Information and Communications Mobile telephone subscriptions Internet users Press Freedom Index

Health and Wellness Life expectancy Non-communicable disease deaths between

the ages of 30 and 70 Obesity rate Outdoor air pollution attributable deaths Suicide rate

Ecosystem Sustainability Greenhouse gas emissions Water withdrawals as a percent of

resources Biodiversity and habitat

Personal Rights Political rights Freedom of speech Freedom of assembly/association Freedom of movement Private property rights

Personal Freedom and Choice Freedom over life choices Freedom of religion Modern slavery, human trafficking and child

marriage Satisfied demand for contraception Corruption

Tolerance and Inclusion Women treated with respect Tolerance for immigrants Tolerance for homosexuals Discrimination and violence against minorities Religious tolerance Community safety net

Access to Advanced Education Years of tertiary schooling Women’s average years in school Inequality in the attainment of education Number of globally ranked universities



2014 SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX: OVERLAP WITH MILLENNIUM

DEVELOPMENT GOALS


COMPONENT METHODOLOGY

• Each component is calculated as the weighted sum of the individual indicators, where the weights are determined by factor analysis

16

𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑐 =

𝑖

(𝑤i ∗ 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟i)

Component values are then translated to a 0 to 100

scale by comparing country scores to the theoretical best

and worst score possible


CALCULATING THE INDEX

• For each dimension, we calculate the sum of each of the components:

• The Social Progress Index is the sum across the three dimensions:

17

𝑆𝑃𝐼 =1

3

𝑑

𝐷𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑑

𝐷𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑑 =1

4

𝑐

𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑐


SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX 2014 RESULTS

18


SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX VS. GDP PER CAPITA (PPP)*

19

* (constant 2011 international $)


SOCIAL PROGRESS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:

KEY FINDING

Economic development alone is not sufficient to explain social progress outcomes.

GDP per capita is an incomplete measure of a country's overall performance:

• There is a non-linear relationship between Social Progress Index scores and GDP per capita.

• Social Progress Index scores display significant deviation from the GDP per capita regression line.

20


KEY FINDING #2

Some aspects of social progress are more correlated with GDP than others.

This is a complex relationship where causation may go in both directions.

21


SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX DIMENSIONS VS. GDP PER CAPITA (PPP)

22


BASIC HUMAN NEEDS VS GDP PER CAPITA (PPP)

23

r2 = 0.8376


FOUNDATIONS OF WELLBEING VS GDP PER CAPITA (PPP)

24

r2 = 0.704


DISTRIBUTION OF SCORES FOR FOUNDATIONS OF WELLBEING

25


OPPORTUNITY VS GDP PER CAPITA (PPP)

26

r2 = 0.5998


OPPORTUNITY VS GDP PER CAPITA (PPP): MENA

27


DEFINING RELATIVE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

28

• We define a country’s economic peers as the 15 countries closest in

GDP PPP per capita.

• Once the peer group is defined, a country’s performance is

compared to the median performance of countries within the peer

cohort.

• If a country’s indicator score is greater than (or less than) the

average absolute deviation from the median of the comparator

group, it is considered a strength (or weakness). Scores within one

average absolute deviation are considered neither strengths nor

weaknesses (neutral) within the cohort.

www.socialprogressimperative.org

Relative Strength Neutral Relative Weakness

Strengths and weaknesses are relative to 15 countries of similar GDP:

n/a – no data available

Social Progress Index rank: 16/132GDP per capita rank: 5/132 UNITED STATES

Saudi Arabia; Switzerland; United Arab Emirates; Austria; Ireland; Netherlands; Australia; Germany; Sweden; Denmark; Canada;

Belgium; Norway; Iceland; and Finland

Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank

BASIC HUMAN NEEDS 89.82 23 W- FOUNDATIONS OF WELLBEING 75.96 36 W OPPORTUNITY 82.54 5 N

Nutrition and Basic Medical Care 97.82 24 N Access to Basic Knowledge 95.10 39 W Personal Rights 82.28 22 N

Undernourishment <5.0 1 N Adult literacy rate 99.0 21 N Political rights 1.0 1 N

Depth of food deficit 1 1 N Primary school enrollment 91.9 77 W- Freedom of speech 2.0 1 S+

Maternal mortality rate 21 40 W- Lower secondary school enrollment 97.9 56 W- Freedom of assembly/association 1.0 48 W-

Stillbirth rate 3 6 N Upper secondary school enrollment 89.4 46 W- Freedom of movement 3.0 67 W

Child mortality rate 7 36 W- Gender parity in secondary enrollment 1.0 1 N Private property rights 80.0 17 W

Deaths from infectious diseases 34 35 N

Water and Sanitation 95.77 34 W- Access to Information and Communications 81.33 23 W Personal Freedom and Choice 84.29 15 N

Access to piped water n/a n/a Mobile telephone subscriptions 95.4 83 W- Freedom over life choices 82.0 33 W

Rural vs. urban access to improved water source 5.7 58 W- Internet users 81.0 17 N Freedom of religion 3.0 56 N

Access to improved sanitation facilities 99.6 28 W Press Freedom Index 18.2 21 W Modern slavery, human trafficking, child marriage 2.8 25 W

Satisfied demand for contraception 92.9 8 N

Corruption 73.0 15 N

Shelter 87.99 9 N Health and Wellness 73.61 70 W- Tolerance and Inclusion 74.22 13 N

Availability of affordable housing 67 6 S Life expectancy 78.6 29 W Women treated with respect 75.0 35 W

Access to electricity 100.0 1 N Non-communicable disease deaths between 30 and 70 15.0 32 W Tolerance for immigrants 82.0 7 N

Quality of electricity supply 6.2 21 W Obesity rate 31.8 125 W- Tolerance for homosexuals 70.0 9 N

Indoor air pollution attributable deaths 0.0 1 N Outdoor air pollution attributable deaths 18.0 95 W Discrimination and violence against minorities 4.2 29 N

Suicide rate 10.7 78 N Religious tolerance 3.0 38 N

Community safety net 90.0 26 W

Personal Safety 77.70 31 W- Ecosystem Sustainability 53.78 69 N Access to Advanced Education 89.37 1 S+

Homicide rate 2.0 41 W- Greenhouse gas emissions 528.6 2 N Years of tertiary schooling 1.7 1 S+

Level of violent crime 1.0 1 N Water withdrawals as a percent of resources 2.9 85 W Women's average years in school 13.9 4 N

Perceived criminality 2.0 2 N Biodiversity and habitat 63.4 67 N Inequality in the attainment of education 0.1 24 W

Political terror 3.0 80 W- Number of globally ranked universities 5.0 1 S+

Traffic deaths 11.4 37 W-





Social Progress Index rank: 69/132GDP per capita rank: 61/132 SOUTH AFRICA

Macedonia; Colombia; Peru; Serbia; Jordan; Algeria; Dominican Republic; Costa Rica; China; Egypt; Tunisia; Thailand; Montenegro;

Ecuador; and Brazil


BASIC HUMAN NEEDS 60.20 94 W- FOUNDATIONS OF WELLBEING 67.49 71 N OPPORTUNITY 61.19 40 S

Nutrition and Basic Medical Care 75.90 95 W- Access to Basic Knowledge 92.85 59 N Personal Rights 74.94 32 S

Undernourishment <5.0 1 N Adult literacy rate 93.0 71 N Political rights 2.0 37 N

Depth of food deficit 16 42 N Primary school enrollment 85.0 104 W- Freedom of speech 1.0 14 N

Maternal mortality rate 300 104 W- Lower secondary school enrollment 111.0 1 N Freedom of assembly/association 2.0 1 S

Stillbirth rate 20 97 W- Upper secondary school enrollment 96.0 34 S+ Freedom of movement 4.0 1 N

Child mortality rate 45 97 W- Gender parity in secondary enrollment 1.0 1 N Private property rights 50.0 36 S

Deaths from infectious diseases 983 127 W-

Water and Sanitation 69.80 85 W Access to Information and Communications 70.52 41 S Personal Freedom and Choice 70.82 50 N

Access to piped water 69 73 W Mobile telephone subscriptions 130.6 1 N Freedom over life choices 58.0 96 N

Rural vs. urban access to improved water source 19.7 98 W Internet users 41.0 69 N Freedom of religion 4.0 1 S

Access to improved sanitation facilities 74.0 80 W- Press Freedom Index 24.6 21 S Modern slavery, human trafficking, child marriage 5.0 42 S


Corruption 42.0 53 N

Shelter 64.20 71 W Health and Wellness 62.36 121 W- Tolerance and Inclusion 58.35 42 S

Availability of affordable housing 40 85 N Life expectancy 55.3 120 W- Women treated with respect 54.0 88 N

Access to electricity 83.0 89 W- Non-communicable disease deaths between 30 and 70 27.0 90 W Tolerance for immigrants 56.0 66 N

Quality of electricity supply 3.8 82 W Obesity rate 33.5 127 W- Tolerance for homosexuals 47.0 31 S

Indoor air pollution attributable deaths 22.2 1 N Outdoor air pollution attributable deaths 15.0 79 N Discrimination and violence against minorities 5.7 54 S

Suicide rate 3.5 26 N Religious tolerance 3.0 38 N

Community safety net 90.0 26 S

Personal Safety 30.90 128 W- Ecosystem Sustainability 44.21 92 W Access to Advanced Education 40.66 71 N

Homicide rate 5.0 109 W Greenhouse gas emissions 1176.4 96 W- Years of tertiary schooling 0.2 83 W

Level of violent crime 5.0 123 W- Water withdrawals as a percent of resources 3.0 90 N Women's average years in school 10.4 66 N

Perceived criminality 4.0 91 N Biodiversity and habitat 64.0 65 N Inequality in the attainment of education 0.2 64 N

Political terror 3.0 80 N Number of globally ranked universities 2.0 22 S+

Traffic deaths 31.9 126 W





Social Progress Index rank: 84/132GDP per capita rank: 69/132 EGYPT

Tunisia; China; Dominican Republic; Jordan; Ecuador; Serbia; Peru; Colombia; Macedonia; South Africa; Albania; Bosnia and

Herzegovina; Namibia; Sri Lanka; and Indonesia


BASIC HUMAN NEEDS 76.77 58 N FOUNDATIONS OF WELLBEING 68.98 66 N OPPORTUNITY 34.17 119 W-

Nutrition and Basic Medical Care 92.30 62 N Access to Basic Knowledge 84.33 89 W Personal Rights 28.21 111 W

Undernourishment <5.0 1 N Adult literacy rate 73.9 99 W- Political rights 6.0 105 W-

Depth of food deficit 9 33 N Primary school enrollment 95.6 51 N Freedom of speech 1.0 14 N

Maternal mortality rate 66 71 N Lower secondary school enrollment 100.8 1 N Freedom of assembly/association 0.0 95 W

Stillbirth rate 13 77 N Upper secondary school enrollment 52.9 94 W- Freedom of movement 2.0 92 N

Child mortality rate 21 76 N Gender parity in secondary enrollment 1.0 85 W- Private property rights 20.0 106 W

Deaths from infectious diseases 76 59 N

Water and Sanitation 96.39 32 S Access to Information and Communications 60.31 72 N Personal Freedom and Choice 57.07 109 W-

Access to piped water 96 30 S Mobile telephone subscriptions 119.9 1 N Freedom over life choices 44.0 125 W

Rural vs. urban access to improved water source 1.2 39 N Internet users 44.1 63 N Freedom of religion 1.0 117 W-

Access to improved sanitation facilities 95.0 45 N Press Freedom Index 48.7 95 W Modern slavery, human trafficking, child marriage 5.1 44 S


Corruption 32.0 90 W

Shelter 61.12 79 N Health and Wellness 69.77 89 N Tolerance and Inclusion 24.67 129 W-

Availability of affordable housing 17 130 W- Life expectancy 70.7 78 W Women treated with respect 69.0 44 N

Access to electricity 100.0 1 N Non-communicable disease deaths between 30 and 70 22.0 62 N Tolerance for immigrants 25.0 127 W-

Quality of electricity supply 3.4 87 W- Obesity rate 34.6 130 W Tolerance for homosexuals n/a n/a

Indoor air pollution attributable deaths 5.9 1 N Outdoor air pollution attributable deaths 17.0 88 N Discrimination and violence against minorities 8.5 117 W

Suicide rate 2.3 7 N Religious tolerance 1.0 118 W

Community safety net 73.0 98 W

Personal Safety 57.25 78 N Ecosystem Sustainability 61.50 47 N Access to Advanced Education 26.72 92 W-

Homicide rate 1.0 1 N Greenhouse gas emissions 639.2 2 N Years of tertiary schooling 0.3 69 N

Level of violent crime 4.0 103 W Water withdrawals as a percent of resources 1.3 60 S Women's average years in school 8.4 88 W

Perceived criminality 3.0 35 N Biodiversity and habitat 65.3 62 N Inequality in the attainment of education 0.4 101 W-

Political terror 4.0 117 W Number of globally ranked universities 1.0 35 S

Traffic deaths 13.2 51 N


EXTENSIVE MEDIA COVERAGE FOR SPI 2014: 450+ PLACEMENTS IN

70+ COUNTRIES

32


FROM INDEX TO ACTION

33

Innovative Tools

A New Definition of

Development

Action Networks


SOCIAL PROGRESS FRAMEWORK IN ACTION

• In 2013, Paraguay became the firstcountry in the world to officiallyadopt the Social Progress Index as ametric of national performance.

• This year, Paraguay presented itsNational Development plan, agovernmental strategy aligned toSocial Progress Indicators.

• As a result, the budget allocation fornutrition programs has doubled andParaguay has set a target of 2% orless for child malnutrition by 2018.


IPS AMAZONIA – SOCIAL PROGRESS INDEX FOR THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON

35

Developed to measure levels of social progress

in an area of 1.2 million square kilometers of

highly dense forest – home to more than 24

million Brazilians living in an ecosystem of

global importance.

MAJOR FINDINGS INCLUDE:

• Maternal mortality rate is 298.21 per 100,000 people.

• Child mortality rate is 27.8 per 100,000 people.

• Infectious diseases (malaria, HIV, dengue and tuberculosis) kill 49.5 per

100,000 people.

• 80% of these populations have no clean water to drink.

• Nearly 30% of people age 15+ living in these municipalities are illiterate.


Nutrition and Basic Medical Care Undernourishment Morbidity due to under nutrition Maternal mortality rate Child mortality rate Mortality due to infectious diseases

Water and Sanitation Access to piped water Access to improved sanitation facilities Rural access to improved water facilities

Shelter Availability of affordable housing Access to electricity Trash collection

Personal Safety Homicide rate Traffic deaths Violence exposure

Access to Basic Knowledge Adult Literacy rate Primary school enrollment Secondary school enrollment Quality of education

Access to Information and Communications Mobile telephone subscriptions Mobile internet users

Health and Wellness Life expectancy Deaths from cancer, cardiovascular diseases,

and diabetes Obesity rate Morbidity due to respiratory diseases Suicide rate

Ecosystem Sustainability Forest coverage Deforestation rate Protected areas Degraded areas Hydric Stress

Personal Rights Political pluralism Mobility Property rights over land

Personal Freedom and Choice Child labor Children and teen pregnancies Access to culture and recreation Familiar vulnerability

Tolerance and Inclusion Violence against women Violence against indigenous Inequality between whites and blacks

Access to Advanced Education Tertiary school enrollment Women’s mean years in school Young people studying college degrees




Same indicator

Close definitiion

Best available proxy

New indicator

2014 MUNICIPAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON(COLOR CODED BY LEVEL OF MATCHING WITH THE 2014 GLOBAL FRAMEWORK)


BRAZIL: A POWERFUL NETWORK

37

EFFECTIVE AND SUSTAINABLE governance structure - a convening of local leaders

that garners legitimacy.

GUARANTEED AND PROVEN COMMITMENT to social causes.

DYNAMIC CROSS-SECTORAL COLLABORATION with financial sustainability.

Executive Secretariat

(Sao Paulo)

www.progressosocial.org.br

http://www.progressosocial.org.br


SOCIAL PROGRESS NETWORK: LATIN AMERICA

38

• 107 organizations from the government, private sector and civil society.

• 21 initiatives

• 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries

• Brazil

• Chile

• Colombia

• Costa Rica

• El Salvador

• Guatemala

• Panama

• Paraguay

• Peru

• Trinidad and Tobago


THE EXPANDING SOCIAL PROGRESS NETWORK IN 2015

39

• Canada

• United States

• South Africa

• Tanzania

• European Union

• Malaysia

• Latin America

and Caribbean

• Japan

growth and inclusion: the path to shared prosperity - social progress imperative's michael...

Government & Nonprofit

thinking social progress

economic developmentthink

economic growth lead

powerful connection

wrong metrics

harvard business school

blavatnik school of

strategic management