groundfish operational assessments 2015 overview · rules of engagement for operational assessments...

Groundfish Operational Assessments 2015 Overview

Northeast Fisheries Science Center

http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/groundfish/operational-assessments-2015/

Summary Presentation

Operational Assessment Process

Among Stock Comparison and Overview

Assessment and Management History

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries |

Operational Assessment Timeline

Species Stock

Northeast Regional Coordi-nating

Council meeting

Industry Outreach meetings July 22,

2015

Assess-ment

Oversight Panel

meeting July 27,

2015

Conduct Assess-ments

August-Sep.

Peer Review Meeting Sep. 14-

18

Final report to

the NEFMC:

PDT SSC

October 2015

NEFMC FW 55 Dec. 1-3

U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries |


We are here


Rules of Engagement for Operational Assessments • Update model runs and BRP estimates with limited

changes to model configuration (m, selectivity, weighting, etc).

• Exclusion of ASAP likelihood constants. • TOGA for NEFSC survey tow evaluation. • Apply a retrospective adjustment to the t+1 abundance if

the Mohn’s Rho (7 year peel) estimate are outside of the model’s 90% CI.

• Consider changes to discards mortality rates based on new studies (GOM cod and wolffish).

• Plan B if model fails (average catch). 4

External Peer Reviewers • Steven Cadrin (Chair)—SMAST • Jeans-Jacque Maguire—consultant • Gary Nelson, MADMF. • Jim Berkson—NOAA-Sea Grant • Other Key Participants

• Jamie Cournane—NEFMC (at review table) • Doug Butterworth—Industry • Large audience in Woods Hole and on Webinar

5

Reviewer’s Reports on Each Stock • Acceptability (or not) of assessment as

scientific basis for management advice. • Recommendation of alternative basis for

catch if assessment is not accepted. • Key sources of uncertainty • Research needs

6

http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/groundfish/operational-assessments-2015/agenda.html

• Data Portal

•Background

• Working Papers • Presentations

Data Portal Output Search Criteria Assessment Year Species Stock Information Type OUTPUTS Zip File=Everything Assessment Report Figures Tables Model info: inputs, outputs, diagnostics Maps—Survey Maps –Commercial Background Reports

Efficiency Initiative

Stock Assessment Models VPA • Georges Bank winter flounder • Georges Bank haddock • Plaice • Witch flounder • Cape Cod-Gulf of Maine

yellowtail flounder

ASAP • Gulf of Maine cod (M=0.2) • Gulf of Maine cod (Mramp) • Southern New England-Mid

Atlantic winter flounder • Gulf of Maine haddock • White hake • Pollock • Redfish • Southern New England-Mid

Atlantic yellowtail flounder

OTHER • GB cod • Wolffish • N & S Windowpanes • GB yellowtail • GOM winter • Ocean Pout • Halibut

Reviewers Findings (1) • 18 of 20 stock assessments were judged as an

acceptable scientific basis for management advice • Two assessments were not accepted due to poor

diagnostics and Plan B was implemented (OFL recommendation) • Georges Bank cod

• Implemented method for adjusting recent average catch based on recent survey trends.

• Atlantic halibut • Suggested slight increase in catch based on

increased spatial incidence of discards

9

Reviewers Findings (2) • Stock status did not change for 15 of the 20

stocks, worsened for two stocks, improved for one stock, and became more uncertain for two stocks.

• Number of stocks using a retrospective adjustment has increased from 2 to 7.

10

Stock Status Overfished and Overfishing (5) GOM Cod Cape Cod/GOM yellowtail SNE Yellowtail (worse) GB Winter (worse) Witch

Not Overfished and Overfishing (0)

Overfished but No Overfishing (4) SNE winter Wolffish Northern Windowpane Ocean Pout

Not Overfished and No Overfishing (7) GB haddock GOM haddock Plaice Redfish White Hake Pollock Southern Windowpane

Overfished but Overfishing UNKNOWN (2) GB cod Atlantic Halibut Not Overfishing but Overfished UNKNOWN (1) GM winter

UNKNOWN Status (1) (low abundance) GB yellowtail

The Green Stocks

12

Stock Last Assessment

Status Change

Since Last Assessment

Overfishing Occurring?

Overfished?

Georges Bank Haddock 2012 Same No NoGulf of Maine Haddock 2014 Same No NoAmerican Plaice 2012 Same No NoAcadian Redfish 2012 Same No NoWhite Hake 2013 Same No NoPollock 2014 Same No NoSouthern New England/Mid-Atlantic Windowpane 2012

Same No No

The Green and Red Stocks

13


Status Change



Overfished?

Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder 2014 Same No UnknownSouthern New England/ Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder 2011

Same No Yes

Wolffish 2012 Same No YesGulf of Maine/Georges Bank Windowpane 2012

Better No Yes

Ocean Pout 2012 Same No Yes

The Red and Unknown Stocks

14


Status Change



Overfished?

Gulf of Maine Cod 2014 Same Yes YesCape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail Flounder 2012

Same Yes Yes

Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder 2012 Worse

Yes Yes

Georges Bank Winter Flounder 2014 Worse Yes YesWitch Flounder 2012 Same Yes YesGeorges Bank Yellowtail Flounder 2014 Same Unknown Unknown

Georges Bank Cod 2012More

uncertain Unknown Yes

Atlantic Halibut 2012More

uncertain Unknown Yes

10/09/2015 15

Figure 1 page 9 Executive Summary

Retrospective Adjustment applied to 7 of 14 Age or Size-Based Assessments • Retrospective Pattern—a consistent pattern of over or

under estimating terminal year biomass and fishing mortality due to an unknown change in landings, discards, natural mortality or survey catchability in the most recent years.

• Seven stocks {GB haddock, CC/GOM yellowtail, GB winter, redfish, plaice, witch, pollock}

• For these stocks the 2014 SSB estimate was adjusted downward by 24% on average (Range -49% to -20%)

17

18

Table 6 page 7 Executive Summary

Keeping up with a Changing Environment • Stock assessment models incorporate the primary

consequences of changes in the environment • Growth • Maturity • Recruitment

• Irrespective of the underlying cause, the updated information is immediately relevant to management

19 10/09/2015

Changes in Average Weights at Age: Georges Bank Haddock, 1935-2014

20

Courtesy L. Brooks

Age 9+

Age 4

Age 1

Age 8

Age 5

Changes in Average Weights at Age: Witch Flounder, 1985-2014

21

Courtesy S. Wigley

Age 3

Age 6

Age 8

Age 10

Changes in Total Biomass (mt) at Maximum Sustainable Yield Proxy: 2005, 2008, 2015 for 8 stocks: {GOM cod, GB haddock, GOM yellowtail, GB winter, SNE yellowtail, Plaice, Witch, Redfish, white hake}

22

759950 667713

525496

0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000

2005 GARM II 2008 GARM III 2015 Updates

-12% -21%

Spawning Stock Biomass since 1985: 12 Stocks

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000Sp

awni

ng S

tock

Bio

mas

s (m

t)

Year

All Model Based GroundfishGOM cod m=0.2

GB haddock

GOM haddock

SNE yellowtail

CC GM yellowtail

Plaice

Witch

GB winter

SNE Winter

Redfish

White hake

Pollock

Spawning Stock Biomass since 1985: 7 Stocks

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000Sp

awni

ng S

tock

Bio

mas

s (m

t)

Year

Model Based Flatfish and GOM Cod

GOM cod m=0.2

SNE yellowtail

CC GM yellowtail

Plaice

Witch

GB winter

SNE Winter

Differing Trends: Haddock, Redfish, Pollock, W Hake vs Cod and Flatfish

25

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Cod

+Flat

fish

SSB

(mt)

Hadd

ock,

Redf

ish, P

ollo

ck ,W

Ha

ke S

SB (m

t)

YEAR

Pollock, Haddock, RedfishCod + flatfish

26

Figures 6-7 pages 14-15 Executive Summary

Catch since 2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Catc

h (0

00's

mt)

Year

All groundfish stockswolffish

halibut

pout

S window

N window

pollock

white hake

redfish

snewf

gomwf

gbwf

witch

plaice

ccyt

sneyt

gbyt

gom haddock

gb haddock

gomcod

gbcod

Catch since 2005

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Catc

h (0

00's

mt)

Year

Flatfish and Codhalibut

S window

N window

snewf

gomwf

gbwf

witch

plaice

ccyt

sneyt

gbyt

gomcod

gbcod

Catch ABCs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Catc

h (0

00's

mt)

Year


halibut

pout

S window

N window

pollock

white hake

redfish

snewf

gomwf

gbwf

witch

plaice

ccyt

sneyt

gbyt

gom haddock

gb haddock

gomcod

gbcod

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Catc

h (0

00's

mt)

Year

Flatfish and Cod halibut

S window

N window

snewf

gomwf

gbwf

witch

plaice

ccyt

sneyt

gbyt

gomcod

gbcod

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Catc

h (0

00's

mt)

Year


halibut

pout

S window

N window

pollock

white hake

redfish

snewf

gomwf

gbwf

witch

plaice

ccyt

sneyt

gbyt

gom haddock

gb haddock

gomcod

gbcod

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Catc

h (0

00's

mt)

Year

Fatfish and Cod halibut

S window

N window

snewf

gomwf

gbwf

witch

plaice

ccyt

sneyt

gbyt

gomcod

gbcod

Catch since 2005

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Catc

h (0

00's

mt)

Year

All 20 Groundfish stockswolffish

halibut

pout

S window

N window

pollock

white hake

redfish

snewf

gomwf

gbwf

witch

plaice

ccyt

sneyt

gbyt

gom haddock

gb haddock

gomcod

gbcodMSY

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Catc

h (0

00's

mt)

Year

Groundfish minus GB haddockwolffish

halibut

pout

S window

N window

pollock

white hake

redfish

snewf

gomwf

gbwf

witch

plaice

ccyt

sneyt

gbyt

gom haddock

gomcod

gbcodMSY

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Catc

h (0

00's

mt)

Year

Flatfish and Cod halibut

S window

N window

snewf

gomwf

gbwf

witch

plaice

ccyt

sneyt

gbyt

gomcod

gbcodMSY

Long Term Performance of Projections • Projections used to set future catches and plan rebuilding

strategies do not perform well (projected catch does not result in the desired fishing mortality, and stock growth does not occur as expected).

• In 2011 the NEFSC augmented the PDT to examine an alternative to using updated assessments for setting FY 2012 – 2014 ABCs. Simulation analyses showed that projections tend to be biased high – that is, they over-estimated stock growth and future catches.

32

Most recentStock control rule

GB cod 75%Fmsy constantGOM cod pseudo 75%Fmsy constant (3 projections)

GB Haddock 75%FmsyGOM Haddock 75%Fmsy

GB Yellowtail Flounder 75%Fmsy constant no projectionSNE Yellowtail Flounder long term 75%Fmsy constant

CC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder 75%Fmsy constantPlaice 75%Fmsy

Witch Flounder Frebuild constantGB Winter Flounder Frebuild

GOM Winter Flounder 75%Fmsy constant no projectionSNE/MA Winter Flounder long term 75%Fmsy constant, different recruitment

Redfish 75%FmsyWhite Hake 75%Fmsy

Pollock 75%Fmsy constantNorthern Windowpane Flounder 75%Fmsy constant no projectionSouthern Windowpane Flounder 75%Fmsy constant no projection

Ocean Pout 75%Fmsy constant no projectionHalibut Frebuild

Wolffish 75%Fmsy constant no projection

7 75%Fmsy or Frebuild5 75%Fmsy or Frebuild and held constant6 75%Fmsy and held constant, no accepted projection2 Long term 75% Fmsy

Assessment Terminal YearB = benchmark GARM3 op-2012 op-2015 op-2017U = update effort effort effort ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABCStock 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016GB cod B U B U UGOM cod B B B U U UGB Haddock B U U UGOM Haddock B U B U UGB Yellowtail Flounder B U U U U U B U USNE Yellowtail Flounder B B U UCC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder B U U UPlaice B U U UWitch Flounder B U U UGB Winter Flounder B B U U UGOM Winter Flounder B B U U USNE/MA Winter Flounder B B U URedfish B U U UWhite Hake B B U UPollock B B U U UNorthern Windowpane Flounder B U U USouthern Windowpane Flounder B U U UOcean Pout B U U UHalibut B U U UWolffish B U U

overfishing 13 1 1 7 3 1 1 5not overfishing 6 1 10 2 4 12GARM 3 projection (2 year catch assumpion) to estimate ABCs 2010-201213 stock op-2012 (2 year catch assumpion) to estimate ABCs 2013-2015

RebuildingRebuild

stock End date probabilityGB cod 2026 50% 4 overfished but no projectionGOM cod 2024 50% 5 rebuiltGB Haddock rebuilt 7 difficult to rebuild by end dateGOM Haddock rebuilt 2 on schedule (not bound by Frebuild)GB Yellowtail Flounder 2032 50% 2 unknown statusSNE Yellowtail Flounder NACC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder 2023 50%Plaice 2024 50%Witch Flounder 2017 75%GB Winter Flounder 2017 75%GOM Winter Flounder NASNE/MA Winter Flounder 2023 50%Redfish rebuiltWhite Hake 2014 50%Pollock rebuiltNorthern Windowpane Flounder 2017 50%Southern Windowpane Flounder rebuiltOcean Pout 2014 50%Halibut 2056 50%Wolffish undefined

General Big Picture Concerns • Diagnostic retrospective issues are not improving. • Less acceptable analytical assessments will results in higher

uncertainty with regards to understanding stock dynamics over time. Biomass status becomes unknown.

• There is no evidence for increases in biomass for several stocks that have relatively low recent catch and exploitation rates (Ocean Pout, Wolffish, GOM & SNE Winter Flounder, GB Yellowtail).

• ABCs set since 2010 have not consistently ended overfishing or promoted rebuilding for many groundfish stocks (flatfish and cod).

• Greater divergence in stock status among stocks is producing greater challenges for groundfish management.

36

Common Research Recommendations • Benchmark Considerations

• Georges Bank Cod • Halibut • Witch

• Longer term, Synoptic Projects • Review stock structure {cod, halibut} • Causes of Low Productivity (especially growth and

recruitment) • Address Retrospective Problem—Remedies not

Causes

37

Big Picture Questions?

38

groundfish operational assessments 2015 overview · rules of engagement for operational assessments...

Documents