gross domestic product · 2020-03-18 · calendar adjusted industrial production (yoy, % change) 50...

Source: Datastream, Turkstat

Gross Domestic Product 5

48

67

7

77

7

64

7

77

2 83

2

87

1 9

50

93

5

86

2

86

3

85

1

78

9

75

4

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

GDP (billion USD)

7,9

06

9,6

56

10

,93

1

8,9

80

10

,56

0

11

,20

5

11

,58

8

12

,48

0

12

,11

2

11

,01

9

10

,88

3

10

,60

2

9,6

32

9,1

27

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Per capita GDP (USD)

3


Economic Growth 5

.0

0.9

-4.7

8.5

11

.1

4.8

8.5

5.2

6.1

3.2

7.5

2.8

0.9

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Annual Real GDP Growth (%)

-12

-7

-2

3

8

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Contributions to Growth (2009=100 chain linked volume index % points)

Stock Change Net ExportsInvestment ConsumptionGDP

4

(*) As of January.


Leading Indicators

7.9*

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Q12013

Q12014

Q12015

Q12016

Q12017

Q12018

Q12019

Q12020

Calendar Adjusted Industrial Production

(yoy, % change)

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20

Confidence Indices

Real sector confidence index

Economic confidence index

Consumer confidence index

5

9.7

8.9 9.2

12.0 11.9

10.0

8.5 8.8 9.1

10.3 10.2

12.0

9.9

12.9 13.1

45 45 44 45 47 47 47 49 49 51 52 52 53 53 52

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Labor Market Indicators* (%)

Unemployment

Labor Participation Rate

(*) Seasonally adjusted figures. Source: Datastream, Turkstat

Labor Market

6

20 20 20 20 21 23 23

24 25 26 27 27

29 28 28

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Employment* (million persons)

Source: Turkstat, Ministry of Treasury and Finance

Fiscal Discipline

32.7 31.4

28.8 27.6 28.3 28.3

30.4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

General Government Debt Stock (% GDP)

Maastricht criterion: 60%

7

1.9

1.0 1.1

1.0 1.1

1.5

2.0

2.9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Budget Deficit (% GDP)

Maastricht criterion: 3%

Exports

8

86

10

7

13

2

10

2 11

4

13

5 1

52

15

2

15

8

14

4

14

3 15

7

16

8

17

2

17

3

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020*

Exports (billion USD)

3.7

3.8

3.8

4.0

4.7

5.1

5.4

5.4

9.8

14.9

Articles of iron and steel

Plastic and articles

Non knitted andcrocheted goods

Precious stones

Mineral fuels and oils

Knitted and crochetedgoods

Electrical machineryand equipment

Iron and steel

Boilers and machineries

Motor vehicles

Exports* (% of total)

(*) As of January 2020 12-month cumulative




Exports

2007 % of

total

1. Germany

2. UK

3. Italy

4. France

5. Russia

6. Spain

7. US

8. Romania

9. UAE

10. Netherlands

11.2

8.0

7.0

5.6

4.4

4.3

3.9

3.4

3.0

2.8

The share of first 10 53.6

2020* % of

total

1. Germany

2. UK

3. Iraq

4. Italy

5. US

6. Spain

7. France

8. Netherlands

9. Israel

10. Russia

9.2

6.2

5.7

5.4

5.0

4.5

4.4

3.2

2.5

2.3


Top 10 Export Markets

56.3

48.6

13.2

19.4

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020*

Exports (% of total)

EU

Near and Middle East

9

Imports 1

40

17

0

20

2

14

1

18

6

24

1

23

7

25

2

24

2

20

7

19

9

23

4

22

3

20

3

20

6

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020*

Imports (billion USD)

2.1

2.3

2.8

4.8

5.5

6.8

7.2

7.3

10.5

19.7

Optical products

Pharmaceuticalproducts

Organic chemicals

Motor vehicles

Plastic and articles

Precious Stones

Iron and steel

Electrical machineryand equipment

Boilers and machineries

Mineral fuels and oils

Imports* (% of total)

10 (*) As of January 2020 12-month cumulative


Imports

2007 % of total

1. Russia

2. Germany

3. China

4. Italy

5. US

6. France

7. Iran

8. UK

9. Switzerland

10. Ukraine

13.8

10.3

7.8

5.7

4.8

4.6

3.9

3.2

3.1

2.7


2020* % of

total

1. Russia

2. China

3. Germany

4. US

5. Italy

6. France

7. India

8. UK

9. South Korea

10. UAE

11.0

9.1

9.1

5.8

4.4

3.2

3.1

2.7

2.7

2.1


Top 10 Import Markets

15.9

72.7

11.0

2007

Capital Goods

Intermediate Goods

Consumption Goods

12.6

77.1

10.1

2020*

Composition of Imports (%)

11 (*) As of January 2020 12-month cumulative



Source: CBRT, Ministry of Culture and Tourism

Tourism

19

23 23 23

25 25

28 30

27

19

22

25

30 30*

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Tourism Revenues (USD bn)

0.9

1.1

1.4

1.6

2.0

2.1

2.6

2.7

5.0

7.1

Azerbaijan

Netherlands

Iraq

Ukraine

Georgia

Iran

UK

Bulgaria

Germany

Russia

The Number of Tourists (million persons)

2020*

2019

2018

Number of Tourists

2017: 32.4 mn

2018: 39.5 mn

2019: 45.1 mn

2020*: 45.3 mn

12

Source: Turkstat, New Economic Program (2020-2022)

Savings & Investments

1.7

5.7

8.8

5.5 6.6

4.6 3.6 3.8

5.6

3.4

-0.2

1.1 0.7

-0.1

21 21 22 23 23

24 25 25 25 26 27 27

29 31

23

27

31

28 30 29 28 28

31 30

27 28

29 31

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Investments and Savings (% of GDP)

Saving Gap

Savings

Investments

New Economic Program

Forecasts

13

(*) Long term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors’ long term net credit and bonds issued by banks and the Treasury

(**) Short-term capital movements are sum of banking and real sectors' short term net credits and deposits in banks.

Source: CBRT, Turkstat

Current Account Balance

-5.7 -5.5 -5.1

-1.8

-5.8

-8.9

-5.5 -5.9

-4.2

-3.2 -3.1

-4.8

-2.6

1.1

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Current Account Balance (% of GDP)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Financing of CAD (12-month cumulative, billion USD)

Foreign Direct and Long Term Investments*

Portfolio and Short Term Investments**

Current Account Deficit

14

Source: CBRT

Capital Flows

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan.17 Jul.17 Jan.18 Jul.18 Jan.19 Jul.19 Jan.20

Portfolio Inflows (12-month cumulative, billion USD)

Debt Securities

Equity Securities

15

0

4

8

12

16

20

Jan.17 Jul.17 Jan.18 Jul.18 Jan.19 Jul.19 Jan.20B

inle

r

Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (12- month cumulative, billion USD)

(*) Latest figure as of February 2020

Source: CBRT, Datastream

Monetary Policy

12.37

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Annual CPI Inflation* (%)

8

12

16

20

24

28

Dec.18 Mar.19 Jun.19 Sep.19 Dec.19 Mar.20

Interest Rates (%)

Interest Rate Corridor

One Week Repo Rate

Late Liquidity Window

CBRT Weighted Average Cost of Funding

16

(*) Latest figure as of March 16

Source: Datastream

Financial Markets

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan.19 May.19 Sep.19 Jan.20

USD vs Local Currencies (Dec. 31, 2018 = 100)

Turkey Brazil

Russia Indonesia

South Africa 70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160


Equity Indices (Dec. 31, 2018 = 100)

Turkey

Brazil

Russia

Indonesia

South Africa

no

min

al d

ep

recia

tio

n in

lo

ca

l cu

rre

ncy

17

(*) Latest figure as of March 16 Source: Datastream

Financial Markets

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


5Y CDS Spreads (bps)

Turkey

Brazil

Russia

Indonesia

South Africa

18

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27


5Y Government Bond Yields (%)

Turkey

Brazil

Russia

Indonesia

South Africa

(*) Excluding the banks under the administration of the SDIF

Source: BRSA

Basic Indicators

8 10

15

28

25

13

2004 Jan 2020

Number of Banks*

Public

Foreign

Domestic Private

51 48

58

32

3

27

38 41

2004 Jan 2020

Share in Total Assets (%)

Public

Foreign

Domestic Private

20

Source: BRSA

Basic Indicators 6

,17

7

6,5

21

7,2

56

8,0

71

9,2

50

9,5

26

10

,00

0

10

,44

0

10

,98

1

11

,90

3

12

,12

5

12

,18

5

11

,66

4

11

,50

8

11

,49

3

11

,30

0

11

,30

4

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Jan2020

Number of Domestic Branches

12

7,3

91

13

8,1

69

15

0,4

62

16

7,2

12

18

2,1

00

18

3,6

14

19

0,5

86

19

4,6

17

20

0,7

45

21

3,4

31

21

6,0

63

21

6,7

22

21

0,1

12

20

7,5

32

20

6,9

74

20

3,8

39

20

3,8

06

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Jan2020

Number of Domestic Staff

21

Source: BRSA, Turkstat

Basic Indicators

23 17 17

12 13 0 16

20

13 15 13 14 12 19 20

15

50

57

40

30 29

7

34 30

16

32

19 20 17 21

14 11

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Nominal GDP Growth (%)

Loan Growth (%)

228

761

2004 Jan 2020

Assets (bn USD)

X3.3

74

450

2004 Jan 2020

Loans (bn USD)

X6.1

143

435

2004 Jan 2020

Deposits (bn USD)

X3.1

34

85

2004 Jan 2020

Equity (bn USD)

X2.5

22

Source: BRSA

Balance Sheet Items

32

59

40

15

15 15

12 11

2004 Jan 2020

Asset Composition (%)

Other Assets

Cash+Banks

Securities

Loans

62 57

11 12

0 4

15 11

11 16

2004 Jan 2020

Liability Composition (%)

Other Liabilities

Shareholder's Equity

Securities Issued

Banks

Deposits

23

Latest figure as of March 6, 2020

Source: BRSA

Deposits

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Deposit Volume (annual % change)

TL Deposits

FX Deposits in USD Terms

Total Deposits (exchange rate adjusted)

48.1

40

45

50

55

60

65

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Share of TL Deposits in Total (%)

24

Latest figure as of March 6, 2020

Source: BRSA

Loans

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Loan Volume (annual % change)

TL Loans

FX Loans in USD Terms

Total Loans (exchange rate adjusted)

63.1

55

59

63

67

71

75

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Share of TL Loans in Total (%)

25

(*) As of 2018 H1.

Source: BRSA, EBA

Non-Performing Loans 6

.0

4.7

3.7

3.5

3.7

5.3

3.7

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.9

5.4

5.3

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Jan

2020

Non-performing Loan Ratio (%)

0.5 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.9 4.9 5.2 5.8 6.0 6.8 8.0 8.3

10.1 34.1

41.2

SwedenLuxembourg

GermanyUK

NorwayFinland

NetherlandsDenmarkBelgiumFranceAustriaLatviaMalta

EU AverageSpain

TurkeyPoland

RomaniaIreland

HungarySloveniaBulgaria

ItalyPortugal

S. Cyprus*Greece

NPL Ratio (%, 2018)

26

(*) As of January 2020 12-month cumulative.

Source: BRSA

Loans by Sectors

0.2

0.3

8.9

5.0

2.9

5.9

6.5

9.8

7.4

5.2

2.0

2.3

3.4

3.9

5.8

5.8

7.4

8.7

12.0

20.0

Defense and Public Administration

Financial Intermediation

Tourism

Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry

Transportation, Storage and Communication

Real Estate Brokerage, Renting and Business Act.

Electricity, Gas and Water Resources

Construction

Wholesale and Retail Trade

Manufacturing industry

Loans by Main Industry Groups*

Share (%)

NPL (%)

27

Source: CBRT

Net FX Position of NFCs

10.5 10.2 -3.6 -0.7 -3.5 1.2 5.3 1.5 7.6 4.2 9.8

-77 -98

-114 -135

-167 -180 -194 -206

-219 -208 -185 -66

-88

-118

-136

-171 -179

-189 -205

-211 -204

-175

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Net FX Position of the Non-Financial Sector (bn USD)

Long Term Net FX Position

Short Term Net FX Position

Net FX Position

28

Source: CBRT

FX Assets & Liabilities of NFCs

50 82 102 122 155 172 174 178 183 171 153 81 76

77 81

82 81 85 93 102 104 100

15 18

20 22

28 28 30 33 41 40

46

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

FX Liabilities of NFCs (bn USD)

Import Payables

External Loans

Domestic Loans

57 62 55 61 64 67 69 68 78 75 84

9 11 11 12 13 12 12 12 15 18

19

13 13 16 16 17 22 18 19 21 17

19

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

FX Assets of NFCs (bn USD)

Securities

Direct InvestmentAbroadExport Receivables

Deposits

29

(*) External debt maturing within 1 year or less regardless of the original maturity.

Source: CBRT

Short Term External Debt Stock

111

198 187

332

108 101

76 74 74

117 97

123 142 140

106

138

89 91

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jan2020

12-month Long-Term Debt Roll Over Ratio

(%)

Banking Sector Non-banking Sector

January 2020 (*)

(bn USD) Share (%)

Central Bank 8.4 4.9

General Government 4.2 2.5

Banks 80.9 46.9

Credits 31.0 18.0

FX Deposits 21.1 12.2

Bank Accounts 13.6 7.9

Branches and Affiliates Abroad 5.3 3.1

TRY Deposits 15.2 8.8

Branches and Affiliates Abroad 8.2 4.8

Other Sectors 78.7 45.7

Trade Credits 55.7 32.3

Other Credits 23.0 13.4

Public 0.1 0.1

Private 22.9 13.3

Total 172.3 100.0

30

(*) Latest figure as of March 6, 2020

Source: BRSA

Non-Deposit Sources

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net FX Position* (billion USD)

Net On Balance Off Balance

21.5

16.2

12.7

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

External Borrowings of the Banks (outstanding amount, billion USD)

Eurobonds Syndication Loans Securitization Loans

Double Investment

Grade

(May 2013-Sep.2016)

31

Source: BRSA, EBA

Capital Adequacy Ratio

23.7

21.9

18.9 18.0

20.6

19.0

16.6

17.9

15.3

16.3 15.6

15.6

16.9

17.3 18.4

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)

Legal Limit of 8%

Target Rate of 12%

15.0

15.3 15.5 15.9 16.1 16.5

17.3 17.6 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.6 19.0 19.1

19.7 19.9 20.0

21.2 21.3

22.0 22.4

PortugalSpain

HungaryGreece

ItalyS. Cyprus

TurkeySlovakia

PolandFranceAustria

SloveniaCzech Rep.EU Average

GermanyBelgium

MaltaBulgaria

LatviaCroatiaIreland

Netherlands

Capital Adequacy Ratio (%, 2018)

32

Source: The Bank Association of Turkey

Alternative Banking Channels

7,227

11,985

2011 Q1 2019 Q4

Internet Banking (number of active customers, thousand persons)

X1.7

230

49,279

2011 Q1 2019 Q4

Mobile Banking (number of active customers, thousand persons)

X214

33

Profitability

(*) Net interest income / average total assets

Source: BRSA

5.4%

4.3%

3.5%

4.1%

3.7% 3.5% 3.5%

3.6% 3.8%

3.9% 3.8%

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

NIM*

36%

41%

44%

41% 43%

45% 46%

40% 38%

34% 36%

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Cost / Income Ratio

34

Profitability

Source: BRSA

2.5%

1.7% 1.8%

1.6%

1.3%

1.2%

1.5% 1.6%

1.4%

1.2%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

ROAA

20.1%

15.5% 15.7%

14.2%

12.3% 11.3%

14.3%

15.9% 14.8%

11.5%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

ROAE

35

Stock Exchange Performance

Latest figure as of March 16

Source: Datastream

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bin

ler

Stock Exchange Performance (thousands)

BIST-100 Index Banking Sector Index (right axis)

36

Banking Sector Comparison

Source: BRSA, Turkstat, ECB, Eurostat

63

66

74

83

87

87

87

96

98

10

1

10

5

10

5

10

4

10

5

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Banking Sector’s Assets in Turkey (% GDP)

267

162

38

156

104

65

5

57

Assets/GDP

Loans/GDP

Housing Loans/GDP

Deposits/GDP

Banking Sector’s Comparison with Euro Area

(%, 2018)

EA-19

Turkey

37

Forecasts

2019 (R) 2020

Real GDP Growth (%) 0.9 4.0

Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.1 -1.4

CPI (%) 11.8 9.8

(R) Realization

38

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gross domestic product · 2020-03-18 · calendar adjusted industrial production (yoy, % change) 50...

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