greenville - east region · jun-17 college pointe apartments 1012 college pointe ln spartanburg 70...

Accelerating success.

Research & Forecast Report

GREENVILLEQ2 2017 | Multifamily

RECENT SALES

Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar

Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual

3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Jun-17 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Effective Rent Per Unit $913 $897 $892 $915 $923 $873 $902 $913 $935 $964 $1,003 $1,033

Per Sq. Ft $0.90 $0.88 $0.88 $0.90 $0.91 $0.86 $0.89 $0.90 $0.92 $0.95 $0.99 $1.02

Effective Rent Growth - Annually 2.8% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 5.3% 3.3% 1.2% 2.5% 3.1% 4.0% 3.0%

Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 0.1% -1.7% -0.5% 2.5%

Occupancy Rate 95.5% 94.5% 94.2% 94.7% 94.6% 95.7% 95.1% 94.6% 94.4% 95.0% 95.3% 94.8%

Occupancy Change - Annually -0.6% -0.8% -0.6% -0.7% -0.5% 0.6% -0.7% -0.4% -0.2% 0.6% 0.3% -0.4%

Occupancy Change - Quarterly 0.1% -1.0% -0.3% 0.5%

Economic Concessions Concession Value $-3.72 $-7.69 $-8.88 $-8.99 $-7.03 $-2.76 $-4.21

As a % of Asking Rent -0.4% -0.8% -1.0% -1.0% -0.8% -0.3% -0.5%

Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units

Jun-17 Haywood Reserve 826 Old Airport Rd Greenville 292 53,800,000 184,247

Jun-17 College Pointe Apartments 1012 College Pointe Ln Spartanburg 70 2005 7,500,000 107,143

May-17 Haywood Pointe Apartment Homes

1175 Haywood Rd Greenville 216 1986 21,500,000 99,537

May-17 Gleneagle 1011 W Butler Rd Mauldin 192 1990 16,500,000 85,938

May-17 Greyeagle 4551 Old Spartanburg Rd Taylors 156 1991 12,500,000 80,128

May-17 Mayfair Lofts 132-198 W Cleveland St Spartanburg 107 1922 / 2008

10,590,000 98,972

Apr-17 The Terrace At Butler 771 East Butler Rd Mauldin 132 / 2013 13,500,000 102,273

Mar-17 Chimney Ridge 1200 OLD Shirley Rd Clemson 244 2008 80,138,751 328,438

Mar-17 Quail Pointe 460 East Blackstock Rd Spartanburg 100 1973 2,825,000 28,250

Mar-17 Hidden Park Apartments 320 Spruce St Spartanburg 100 1972 2,575,000 25,750

Feb-17 Gallery at Clemson 423 Lindsay Rd Clemson 70 1998 7,749,995 110,714

Feb-17 Enclave 1146 Old Central Rd Clemson 76 1998 7,750,000 101,974

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

Multifamily Absorption and Supply

Annual 2Q17 Annual Forecast

2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Total Units Absorbed 686 879 1,139 1,230 175,965 1,827 784 982 562 146

New Supply 359 996 1,564 1,703 363,579 1,850 1,074 641 441 507

Inventory Growth 0.9% 2.4% 3.7% 3.9% 1.4% 4.2% 2.4% 1.4% 0.9% 1.1%

Market Employment and Permitting

Annual July-17 Annual Forecast

2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F

Employment (000s) 388.5 401.7 409.5 414.4 146,748.0 413.1 417.9 424.3 431.7 438.0

Job Gain (000s) 9.1 13.2 7.8 3.6 2,223.0 3.5 4.9 6.3 7.4 6.3

Job Growth (%) 2.4% 3.4% 1.9% 0.9% 1.5% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 1.5%

Total Residential Permitting 4,770 5,814 5,414 5,272 1,096,260 5,425 4,534 3,816 4,022 4,593

Relative Change 36.8% 21.9% -6.9% 16.6% 2.2% 0.2% -16.4% -15.8% 5.4% 14.2%

Single Family Units Permitted 3,488 3,721 4,157 4,029 700,786

Relative Change 13.8% 6.7% 11.7% 13.3% 8.0%

Multifamily Units Permitted 1,272 2,043 1,200 1,205 364,372

Relative Change 217.2% 60.6% -41.3% 29.4% -7.3%

Multifamily as a % of Total 26.7% 35.1% 22.2% 22.9% 33.2%

Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.6 2.8 1.3 0.8 2.1 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.9 1.6

Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 3.0 3.8 2.1 1.0 3.4

Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 22.8 10.4 3.8 3.9 5.7

SUPPLY AND DEMANDAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC Metro Area was 0.9% in May 2017, reflecting 3,600 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was below the national number of 1.5%. Axiometrics forecasts Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC Metro Area’s job growth to be 1.2% in 2018, with 4,875 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 1.6% from 2019 to 2021, with an average of 6,691 jobs added each year. On the supply side, permits for 1,232 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in May 2017, up 32 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 5,733 units were permitted in the 12 months ending May 2017, an increase of 319 units from the prior year’s total.


IDENTIFIED SUPPLYAs of July 16, 2017, Axiometrics has identified 2,252 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2017, of which, 1,223 have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 1,432 apartment units delivered in 2016. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,289 per unit, or $1.42 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,205, or $1.33 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-83.55. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $924 per unit ($0.91 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $915 per unit, or $0.90 per square foot, in 2Q17. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-8.99.

Submarket Delivery Schedule

Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend

Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent

Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Central 271 40 311 89 5 $901 $1.13 $871 $1.09

Northwest 403 267 1,617 2,287 516 7 $1,423 $1.73 $1,317 $1.60

South Greenville County 520 894 595 2,009 780 12 $1,258 $1.23 $1,176 $1.15

Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, SC 923 1,432 2,252 4,607 1,385 9 $1,295 $1.43 $1,206 $1.33

*Based on 2017 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period


Key

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PIPELINE MAP

WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.

Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.

How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.


PIPELINE DETAIL# Name Status Owner Address Market Units1 Link Apartments West End Lease Up Grubb Properties 25 River St Downtown Greenville 2152 Main & Stone Lease Up The Beach Company 18 E Stone Ave Downtown Greenville 2853 Ellison on Broad Lease Up Proffitt Dixon Partners 212 E Broad St Downtown Greenville 2014 District West Apartments Lease Up Flournoy Companies 101 Reedy View Dr Downtown Greenville 3655 Haywood Reserve Lease Up Daniel Corporation 826 Old Airport Rd Eastside 2926 Prestwick Ridge by Redwood Lease Up Redwood Living 2402 Dry Pocket Rd Greer 777 Mosby Poinsett Lease Up Middleburg Management, LLC 6001 Hampden Dr N Outer Greenville/Berea 968 Upper Enclave Paris Mountain

Phase IILease Up McCall Capital LLC 101 Enclave Paris Dr N Outer Greenville/Berea 80

9 Highlands at Market Point Lease Up Brand Properties 30 Market Point Dr Pleasantburg 24610 Ardmore at the Park Lease Up Ardmore Residential 805 Mauldin Rd Pleasantburg 11311 Ashford Park Apartments Lease Up Harmon Development Corporation 151 Bridgepoint Dr West Spartanburg County 21812 Trailside at Reedy Point Under Construction Arlington Properties 200 S Academy St Downtown Greenville 21513 The Residences at Century Park Under Construction Consolidated Management of

Greenville3422 Brushy Creek Rd Greer 298

14 Prestwick Ridge by Redwood Phase II

Under Construction Redwood Living 2402 Dry Pocket Rd Greer 94

15 Assembly Apartments Under Construction The Flatiron Group, Inc 5001 Assembly View Cir N Outer Greenville/Berea 24016 The Enclave Phase II - UC Under Construction McCall Capital LLC 101 Enclave Paris Dr N Outer Greenville/Berea 9417 Mosby Poinsett Phase II Under Construction Middleburg Management, LLC 6001 Hampden Dr N Outer Greenville/Berea 19618 Ardmore at the Park - Phase II Under Construction Ardmore - Ardmore at The Park 805 Mauldin Rd Pleasantburg 19219 The West End Apartment

HomesUnder Construction Woodfield Investments 1100 S Main St West Greenville 271

20 The Ledges at Abner Creek Phase II

Under Construction Redwood Living 625 Abner Creek Rd West Spartanburg County 107

21 Lofts by the Lake at Apalache Mill

Under Construction Goodrich and Associates 2200 Racing Rd West Spartanburg County 97

22 Greenville Gateway Proposed Greenville Gateway Developers 400 N Church St Downtown Greenville 17623 Camperdown Multi-Family Proposed Centennial American Properties,

LLCFalls St Downtown Greenville 243

24 Perimeter Proposed Lyon Construction & Development 100 N Markley St Downtown Greenville 7025 Northpointe Proposed Central Realty Corporation 400 E Stone Ave Downtown Greenville 28526 The Residences at Haywood Proposed Equity Acquisitions-trademark Ll 48 McPrice Ct Eastside 9627 Elements West Apartments Proposed TRV Development Inc 806 Green Ave Outer Greenville/Gantt 6028 Emerald Creek Proposed Edward Rose & Sons Fairforest Way &

Wenwood RdPleasantburg 330

Total Units 5,252


LEGACY AT SAND HILL | Columbia, SC

CHALLENGE: Significant prepayment penalty on the existing loan so buyer had to assume and put an additional supplemental loan on top. Capital Markets shifted and effected the supplemental loan proceeds after being under contract.

STRATEGY & RESULTS: The East Region team was the exclusive sales agent for Mesa Capital Partners. Our goal was to minimize exposure to the seller and generate the highest net number possible for them. We provided the clients with property marketing, and assisted through all negotiations, and due diligence up until closing. This is the second time in three years this team has sold this property, resulting in the highest price per unit trade in Columbia year to date.

CLIENT: Mesa Capital Partners UNITS: 240

OUR PROVEN TRACK RECORDRecent Closings

Greenhill Parish CrossingColumbia, SCUnits: 240

Villas at Spears CreekColumbia, SCUnits: 240

Legacy at SandhillColumbia, SCUnits: 240

Springtree ApartmentsColumbia, SCUnits: 152

WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most

experienced teams of multifamily

specialists in the industry

Units sold since 2011

33,500MORE THAN

Group gross transaction value in since 2011

$2.3B

Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors

50MORE THAN

Expansive geographic footprint

20COVERING OVER

STATES

www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

To learn more, scan this with a QR code reader or visit:

AT YOUR SERVICE

Woody MooreEXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT | SOUTH CAROLINA

[email protected] +1 803 401 4236

Max KemetherASSOCIATE | EAST REGION


Brooks ColquittASSOCIATE | EAST REGION

CAROLINA’S MARKET SPECIALIST


Payton HerschbergerASSOCIATE | EAST REGION


Will MathewsPRINCIPAL | EAST REGION

INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT GROUP


greenville - east region · jun-17 college pointe apartments 1012 college pointe ln spartanburg 70...

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