green urbanization in asia wan.pdf · asia’s urbanization is unprecedented source: adb estimates...
TRANSCRIPT
Green Urbanization in Asia
Guanghua Wan
Asian Development Bank
Main Messages
• Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented & unique in several aspects
• … leading to enormous challenges, including environmental degradation
• But urbanization can help!
• To ensure a win-win scenario, green urbanization policies shall exploit unique features of Asia’s urbanization and late comer’s advantage
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1980-2010 2010-2040
Incr
eas
e in
Urb
an P
op
ula
tio
n (
mill
ion
) Increase in Urban Population in Asia and the Pacific (millions)
Bangladesh Pakistan Indonesia
India China, People's Rep. of Rest of Asia & Pacific
1.06 billion 1 billion
Asia’s urbanization is unprecedented
Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).
1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
China, People's Rep. of
Bhutan
Lao PDR
Indonesia
Viet Nam
Asia and the Pacific
Europe
North America
Latin America andCaribbean
Number of Years from about 10% to 50% of Urbanization Rate
10% 49% 210 years
9% 51% 105 years
12% 51% 150 years
11% 51% 95 years
12% 50% 90 years
12% 54% 65 years
10% 52% 60 years
10% 51% 55 years
11% 51% 61 years
Unique feature 1: very fast speed
Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).
Unique feature 2: highest densities in the world…
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Mu
mb
ai
Ko
lkat
a
Kar
ach
i
Lago
s
She
nzh
en
Seo
ul/
Inch
eo
n
Taip
ei,C
hin
a
Ch
en
nai
Bo
gota
Shan
ghai
Lim
a
Be
ijin
g
Del
hi
Kin
shas
a
Man
ila
Teh
ran
Jaka
rta
Tian
jin
Ban
galo
re
Ho
Ch
i Min
h C
ity
Cai
ro
Bag
hd
ad
She
nya
ng
Hyd
era
bad
São
Pau
lo
De
nsi
ty (
pe
rso
n/m
2)
Top 25 World's Cities Ranked by Density, 2007
Asia & the Pacific (17/25) Africa Europe Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa
Source: www.citymayors.com
Unique feature 3: many megacities
Megacities, 2010
ASIA: 12/23
Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of
the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty.
Source: UN (2012).
Unique feature 4: low starting base
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Leve
l of
Urb
aniz
atio
n (
%)
Level of Urbanization by Region (%)
52%
43%
67%
63%
Source: ADB estimates using Bairoch (2008) and UN(2012).
12
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
Asia Non-Asia
Urban Primacy (%, 2009)
Rat
io o
f P
op
ula
tio
n in
Lar
gest
Cit
ies
ove
r U
rban
Po
pu
lati
on
(%
)
Unique feature 5: the largest cities are likely to grow bigger
Source: ADB estimates using UN(2012).
… thus more and bigger megacities are emerging
Megacities, 2025
ASIA: 21/37
Note: The circles indicate population sizes ranging from (10 million) to (39 million). The circles do not reflect the physical extents of the cities and any overlap between them merely reflects their relative population sizes and not any official acceptance or endorsement of any geographical sovereignty.
Source: UN (2012).
Unprecedented urbanization poses enormous challenges already serious
• Growing inequalities
• Rising urban crimes
• Expansion of slums
• Above all, environmental degradation
Pollution
Vulnerability to flooding
67% of Asian (vs. 11% Non-Asian) cities fail to meet EU air quality standard
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Ah
waz
Ula
anb
aata
rSa
nan
daj
Lud
hia
na
Ke
rman
shah
Yas
ou
jK
anp
ur
Del
hi
Luck
no
wU
rom
iyeh
Qo
mIn
do
reK
ho
ram
abad
Agr
aA
l Ain
Lan
zho
uK
olk
ata
Van
Xin
ing
Uru
mq
iFa
rid
abad
Gre
ate
r C
airo
Me
xica
liJa
bal
pu
rM
um
bai
Dh
anb
adIl
amA
llah
abad
Bu
she
hr
Ker
man
Jin
anB
eijin
gP
atn
aSa
raje
voA
bu
Dh
ab
iM
eer
ut
Xi'a
nJa
ipu
rQ
azvi
nM
ed
anC
hen
gdu
Hef
eiSh
enya
ng
Taiy
uan
Var
anas
iC
ho
ngq
ing
Wu
han
Esfa
han
Shiji
azh
uan
gK
on
yaK
ars
Ham
edan
Ara
kH
arb
inTi
anjin
Nan
jing
Den
izli
PM
10 L
eve
l (m
icro
gram
s/cu
bic
met
er)
Cities with PM10 above 100 ug/m3 (2008-2009)
Asia and the Pacific (34/57) Non-Asia and the Pacific
EU standard
Source: WHO (2012).
97%
18%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Asia Non-Asia
Growth of Per Capita CO2 Emissions over 2000-2008 (%)
CO2 emissions grow fast in Asia
Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).
Environment may degrade further with growth
Asia’s Environmental Kuznets Curve
05
1015
CO
2 em
issi
ons
(ton
s/ca
pita
)
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
GDP per capita (in 2005 PPP)
2010=$6,107 Peak=$40,9712010=$6,107 Peak=$40,971
Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).
CO2 emissions may triple under the business-as-usual scenario
3.4 3.5
5.6
7.6
9.3 10.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns
(to
ns/
cap
ita)
Projected CO2 emissions based on latest EKC
Source: ADB estimates using World Bank (2012).
Vulnerability will rise with urbanization
154 198
63
92 83
115
3
4
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010 2025
Po
pu
lati
on
at
Ris
k (m
illio
n)
East Asia South Asia
Coastal Flooding
410 M
303 M
141
192
63
91 33
46
8
11
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 2025
Central and West Asia Southeast Asia
Inland Flooding
341 M
245 M
Source: Balk and Montgomery (2012).
Unique features of Asian urbanization make challenges more serious...
• Low level = a long way to go
• Fast speed = little time to adjust or learn
• More & bigger megacities = hard to manage
• More slums = higher vulnerability
But, can urban agglomeration help?
• Service sector pollutes less
• Manufacturers relocate (e.g., decline manu.)
• Efficient provision of infrastructure and services
• Innovation and higher labor productivity
• Nurture middle class and property owners
• And ...
Urbanization leads to lower fertility
48.4 42.6
39.0 39.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 2040-2050
Re
du
ctio
n in
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
n)
Reduction in Projected Population due to Urbanization
… and more human capital
Population Subgroups Sacrifice Growth
Sacrifice Income
Pay Higher Taxes
Support Regulation
By educational attainment No formal education 32.3 49.5 43.2 42.1
Less than Secondary Education 42.4 68.7 58.3 60.4
Secondary Education 45.2 75.3 62.8 60.8
At least Some University Education 46.8 80.8 67.7 61.0
World 49.3 61.8 53.3 67.2
Asia 43.4 71.8 60.4 58.5
The environmental impacts of urbanization
The growth impact may be negative
The composition effect is positive
Technical effect is also positive
Environment-Urbanization relation has improved over time
10
20
30
40
50
60
PM
10 L
evel (u
g/m
3)
0 20 40 60 80 100Level of Urbanization (%)
pm10hat1_u pm10hat2_u
01
23
CO
2 e
mis
sio
ns (
mt/ca
pita
)
0 20 40 60 80 100Level of Urbanization (%)
co2hat1_u 2000s
1990s
2000s
1990s
2000s
CO2 PM10
Environment-Urbanization Curves
Source: ADB estimates.
Green urbanization can help shift the curves further • Megacities with satellite cities:
ToD, BRT, green/compact/eco- cities concepts
• Exploit late comer advantage:
Leapfrog technology by import or R&D;
Timely introduction of regulations: pollution/emission pricing, carbon tax or cap & trade, reduce subsidies, increasing block tariffs, …
Conclusions
• It is counter-productive to contain
urbanization, even for environmental
concerns
• But, urbanization must be steered into a
green path that exploits own unique features
• Asia can achieve green urbanization!
Thank You