great lakes weather and climate. introduction standing in for a speaker from environment canada that...
TRANSCRIPT
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Great Lakes Weather and Climate
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Introduction
• Standing in for a speaker from Environment Canada that was unable to attend at the last minute
• Until yesterday knew almost nothing about weather and climate in the Great Lakes but have been learning fast!
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Great Lakes Weather and Climate
• Forecasting weather and projecting climate
• The role of the oceans and Great Lakes
• Great Lakes climate change
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First a bit of history
• Early ability to predict weather constrained by:– Limited understanding of
fundamentals of atmospheric circulation
– Low density of accurate and synoptic observations
– Limited capacity to communicate, integrate and interpret observations
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Time Line 1848 - Volunteer Weather Observers recruited
through Smithsonian Institution
1849 - Smithsonian supplies weather instruments to telegraph companies and establishes weather observation network
1870 - President Grant signs bill establishing a national weather warning service within Army Signal Corps
1890 - Cooperative Weather Observer Network established
1891 – Weather service transferred to Department of Agriculture, becomes United States Weather Bureau
1898 – Weather Bureau begins hurricane warning network
1900 - ‘Issacs storm’ kills over 6,000, Weather Bureau establishes regional forecasting centers in response
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World Weather Watch
• Established by WMO in 1963
• Creation of a globally coordinated system of observations, data communications, data processing and forecasting
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Satellite observations of the atmosphere
TIROS
GOES
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Computing
• Meteorology took early advantage of the revolution in computing to deliver routine operational products
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Why are the oceans so important?
Data from Levitus et al, Science, 2001
Because, that is where most of the heat goes
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Systematic observation of the global ocean became a goal in 1990
The Global Ocean Observing SystemA joint initiative of:
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Technology
• Comprehensive array of technologies for in-situ measurement
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57%
100%
40%
82%
43%72%48%21%
100%
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Operational Systems
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• 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data
• 1861 to 2007, Global, instrumental
• 2007 to 2100, SRES projections
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Evidence of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region
• Temperatures are rising, especially in winter.
• Extreme rainfall events (24-hr and 7-day) are becoming more frequent.
• Winters have become shorter.• Spring is coming earlier.• Duration of ice cover is shorter, especially on smaller lakes.
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Projected Temperature Increase in the Great Lakes Region (by 2070-99)
Summer
Winter
Higher emissionsLower emissions
Deg F
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
Deg F
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
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Projected Precipitation Changes in the Great Lakes Region (by 2070-99)
• Doubling of heavy precipitation events
• Seasonal shifts in precipitation -- * More rain in winter and spring (planting season)
* Less rain during the summer and fall growing seasons
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• Temperature– Winter 5-12 °F (3-7 °C)– Summer 5-20 °F (3-11 °C)– Extreme heat more common– Growing season several weeks longer
• Precipitation– Winter, spring increasing– Summer, fall decreasing– Drier soils, more droughts
• More extreme events – storms, floods– Could be 50-100% more frequent than now
• Ice cover decline will continue
Projected Climate Changes in the Great Lakes Region by 2100
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