grameenphone limited - cfa institute

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Analyst: Mohammad Asrarul Haque [email protected] Phone: +8802471129474 (Ext.: 351) Grameenphone Limited Earnings Update (YE, 2019) DSE: GP; BLOOMBERG: GRAM:BD Current Market Price: 268.2 BDT Sector: Telecommunication Page 1 of 10 This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh Equities | 04 February 2020 N.B.: Disclaimer of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the report. Solid business performance despite several challenging regulatory scenario, however, payout declined due to increased earnings retention LATEST DECLARATION: The Board of Directors has recommended 40% final cash dividend (i.e. total 130% cash dividend for the year 2019 which represents 50.86% of profit after tax for the year 2019 inclusive of 90% Interim cash dividend which has already been paid) The Company has also reported EPS of Tk. 25.56, NAV per share of Tk. 28.40 and NOCFPS of Tk. 42.50 for the year ended on December 31, 2019 as against Tk. 24.71, Tk. 27.28 and Tk. 44.74 respectively for the same period of the previous year.. Earnings Commentary KEY HIGHLIGHTS: Attractive 8.1% topline growth but higher tax provision led to meagre 3.5% bottom-line growth. Uncertainty regarding final 40% cash dividend approval. BDT 125.75 billion audit claim remained unsettled Non-issuance of NOC for machineries import, new package offerings, new-number allocation etc. causing disruption in business operation and implementation of planned capex program. Total number of sites now stands at 16,506. 715 new 4G sites were added to the network leading to a total of 10,022 4G/LTE sites. GP now covers 99.6% population coverage, 96% geography coverage and 74.5% 4G population coverage. GP SECURED ATTRACTIVE REVENUE GROWTH IN 2019 AMIDST CHALLENGING BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Grameenphone Ltd. registered 134.7 billon revenue with 8.1% YoY growth in gross revenue. Within this subscription and traffic revenue grew by 9.6% while interconnect revenues declined by 14.3% during 2019. Increase in gross revenue was mainly attributed to 17% growth in data revenue and 8.5% growth in voice revenue during the year. The growth in voice revenue was positively impacted by the unified flow tariff introduced in Quarter-3 2018. GP’s revenue is mainly (98.5%) generated by revenue from mobile communication that includes voice and non-voice traffic, data revenue, subscription and connection fee and interconnection revenue. In its latest Q4, 2019 (October-December), GP registered BDT 36.2 bn revenue. Growth in total revenues during the quarter was 4.2% and subscription and 102,663 104,754 114,862 128,436 132,832 143,656 6.3% 2.0% 9.6% 11.8% 3.4% 8.1% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Revenue (BDT mn) Revenue Growth

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Page 1: Grameenphone Limited - CFA Institute

Analyst: Mohammad Asrarul Haque

[email protected]

Phone: +8802471129474 (Ext.: 351)

Grameenphone Limited Earnings Update (YE, 2019) DSE: GP; BLOOMBERG: GRAM:BD

Current Market Price: 268.2 BDT

Sector: Telecommunication

Page 1 of 10 This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh Equities | 04 February 2020

N.B.: Disclaimer of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the report.

Solid business performance despite several challenging regulatory scenario, however, payout declined due to increased earnings retention

LATEST DECLARATION: The Board of Directors has recommended 40% final cash

dividend (i.e. total 130% cash dividend for the year 2019 which represents 50.86% of profit after tax for the year 2019 inclusive of 90% Interim cash dividend which has already been paid) The Company has also reported EPS of Tk. 25.56, NAV per share of Tk. 28.40 and NOCFPS of Tk. 42.50 for the year ended on December 31, 2019 as against Tk. 24.71, Tk. 27.28 and Tk. 44.74 respectively for the same period of the previous year..

Earnings Commentary

KEY HIGHLIGHTS:

Attractive 8.1% topline growth but higher tax provision led to meagre 3.5% bottom-line growth.

Uncertainty regarding final 40% cash dividend approval.

BDT 125.75 billion audit claim remained unsettled

Non-issuance of NOC for machineries import, new package offerings, new-number allocation etc. causing disruption in business operation and implementation of planned capex program.

Total number of sites now stands at 16,506. 715 new 4G sites were added to the network leading to a total of 10,022 4G/LTE sites.

GP now covers 99.6% population coverage, 96% geography coverage and 74.5% 4G population coverage.

GP SECURED ATTRACTIVE REVENUE GROWTH IN 2019 AMIDST CHALLENGING

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

Grameenphone Ltd. registered 134.7 billon revenue with 8.1% YoY growth in gross revenue. Within this subscription and traffic revenue grew by 9.6% while interconnect revenues declined by 14.3% during 2019. Increase in gross revenue was mainly attributed to 17% growth in data revenue and 8.5% growth in voice revenue during the year. The growth in voice revenue was positively impacted by the unified flow tariff introduced in Quarter-3 2018. GP’s revenue is mainly (98.5%) generated by revenue from mobile communication that includes voice and non-voice traffic, data revenue, subscription and connection fee and interconnection revenue.

In its latest Q4, 2019 (October-December), GP registered BDT 36.2 bn revenue. Growth in total revenues during the quarter was 4.2% and subscription and

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%

9.6

% 11

.8%

3.4

%

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%

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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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Revenue (BDT mn)Revenue Growth

Page 2: Grameenphone Limited - CFA Institute

EQUITY RESEARCH Grameenphone Ltd. (DSE: GP; BLOOMBERG: GRAM: BD)

Page 2 of 10 This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh Equities | 04 February 2020

N.B.: Disclaimer of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the report.

traffic revenue (excluding interconnection) growth was 4.8%. Voice revenue grew by 1.6% from the same period last year, driven by higher outgoing minutes. Data revenue grew by 14.2% from the last year, driven by 9.5% increase in data users and 3.3% growth in data ARPU.

2018 2019 Growth (YoY) 2018 2019

STATEMENT OF CONSOLIDATED INCOME Revenue 132,832 143,656 8.10% 100.00% 100.00% Revenue from mobile communication 130,789 141,547 8.20% 98.46% 98.53% Revenue from customer equipment 194 185 -4.30% 0.15% 0.13% Lease Revenue 1,640 1,538 -6.20% 1.23% 1.07% Other Revenues 209 386 84.50% 0.16% 0.27%

Cost of material and traffic charges 7,330 8,465 15.50% 5.50% 5.90% Traffic charges 6,054 7,254 19.80% 4.60% 5.00% Cost of material and services 1,275 1,212 -5.00% 1.00% 0.80% Salaries and personnel cost 8,562 9,438 10.20% 6.40% 6.60% Operation and maintenance 5,585 5,899 5.60% 4.20% 4.10% Sales, marketing and commissions 14,078 13,480 -4.20% 10.60% 9.40% Revenue sharing, spectrum charges and license fees 9,571 10,107 5.60% 7.20% 7.00% Other operating (expenses)/income, net 8,392 6,164 -26.50% 6.30% 4.30% Depreciation and amortization 22,539 23,451 4.00% 17.00% 16.30%

PROFIT FROM OPERATIONS 56,777 66,652 17.40% 42.70% 46.40%

Financial Expenses 1,814 2,523 39.10% 1.40% 1.80% Foreign Exchange (Loss)/ gain -114 -230 100.80% -0.10% -0.20%

PROFIT BEFORE TAX 54,848 63,899 16.50% 41.30% 44.50%

Provision for Income Tax 25,507 29,029 13.80% 19.20% 20.20% Provision released during the year -2,462 1,221 -149.60% -1.90% 0.80% Provision for deferred Income Tax -1,559 -867 -44.40% -1.20% -0.60%

PROFIT AFTER TAX FOR THE YEAR 33,363 34,517 3.50% 25.10% 24.00%

2.1% 2.2%

-3.9%

5.1%

9.4%

6.6%

8.5%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.0 0%

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10. 00%

12. 00%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Growth in Voice Traffic

Growth in Voice Traffic

Linear (Growth in Voice Traffic)

17.0%

61.1%66.0%

69.7%

46.4%

21.0%17.0%

0.0 %

10. 0%

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70. 0%

80. 0%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Data Revenue GrowthData revenue growthLinear (Data revenue growth)

Page 3: Grameenphone Limited - CFA Institute

EQUITY RESEARCH Grameenphone Ltd. (DSE: GP; BLOOMBERG: GRAM: BD)

Page 3 of 10 This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh Equities | 04 February 2020

N.B.: Disclaimer of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the report.

APPROVAL OF FINAL DIVIDEND DECLARATION IS UNCERTAIN:

GP has declared total 130% cash dividend (90% interim & 40% final) for the year 2019.According to Grameenphone’s latest PSI, there have been ongoing issues with regard to remittance of dividends to Telenor since the declaration of GP’s 90% interim cash dividend of 2019. This has been due to lack of post-facto checking that is provided by Bangladesh Bank as part of the remittance process. The matter relates to issuance of a limited number of shares that were issued against “in-kind” contribution to 3 non-resident shareholders including Telenor in 1997. The GP board in its recent meeting noted that currently not all shareholders are enjoying the full benefits of dividend previously distributed. The board unanimously regards this as unequal treatment of shareholders and thus unsustainable. Telenor as a shareholder at the 23rd AGM might not approve the final 40% cash dividend for 2019, unless this issue has been solved and the board was informed thereof1.

FOCUS ON OPEX REDUCTION REMAINED: With continued focus on Opex efficiency, the full year Opex (excluding depreciation expenses) to Sales declined by 3.3% from 34.8% to 31.4% mainly driven by efficient market spending along with lower acquisition cost. OPEX increased slightly in Q4 mainly due to higher revenue sharing in Quarter-4 2019 and a one-off reversal in the last year. The higher revenue sharing expense is driven by the revenue growth along with the 4G revenue share after first year’s exemption.

ATTRACTIVE GROWTH IN PRE-TAX PROFITABILITY BUT HIGHER TAX PROVISION

CAUSED MEAGER NET PROFIT GROWTH GP’s robust 17.4% operating profit growth in 2019 can be attributed to meagre 1.2% growth in operating cost against 8.1% growth in total revenue. Meanwhile, EBITDA grew by 13.6% and profit before tax also grew by 16.5% during the year but after tax grew by only 3.5% due to higher provision of tax and one-off reversals in past year.

1https://cdn01.grameenphone.com/sites/default/files/pdf/20200127_PSI_Declaration%20of%20Final%20Dividend%202019.jpg

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.4%

36

.2%

34

.9%

34

.8%

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.4%

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Opex to Sales ratio

140%

175%205%

280%

130%

95.9% 104.9% 100.9%113.3%

50.9%0%

50%

100 %

150 %

200 %

250 %

300 %

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019p

Dividend & Payout RatioTotal Dividend (Cash)

Payout Ratio

26

2

26

1

25

7

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0.63 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.64 0.69 0.74 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.73

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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2017 2018 2019

Blended AMPU, ARPU & APPM (Reported)

AMPU ARPU APPM

Page 4: Grameenphone Limited - CFA Institute

EQUITY RESEARCH Grameenphone Ltd. (DSE: GP; BLOOMBERG: GRAM: BD)

Page 4 of 10 This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh Equities | 04 February 2020

N.B.: Disclaimer of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the report.

DATA SUBSCRITION CONTINUED TO GROW Data subscription grew by 9.5% to 40.6 million, including 11.9 million 4G data users, at the end of 2019 form that of 2018. Data user penetration grew to 53.1% from that of 51% (2.1% improvement) with continued focus on 4G conversion drive. Data ARPU grew by 3.3% while AMBPU grew by 54.9% to 1.21 GB and APPMB declined by 33.3% in the year 2019.

GP CONTINUED TO SECURE LEADING MARKET POSITION IN SPITE OF THE THREAT

OF REGULATORY RESTRICTIONS

Grameenphone Ltd. holds 46.2% market share in terms of the subscriber base in terms of the subscriber base. Grameenphone attracted 43.5% of the industry subscriber addition during 2019. Grameenphone gained 3.7 million new customers in 2019, ending the period with 76.5 million subscribers, registering a 5.1% growth from the same period last year. 53.1% of GP’s total subscriber base are now using internet services.

SMP restrictions and suspension of approval/ allocation of new numbers/ resale of existing unused number may seriously hurt the industry subscription growth in coming period.

SMP RESTRICTIONS REMAINED INEFFECTIVE TILL DATE BUT FUTURE

UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS

In February and May 2019, the BTRC imposed restrictions on Grameenphone as a significant market power (SMP) operator. Both times, the Honorable High Court Division issued show cause and injunctions on the directives. On the 15th of December 2019, the High Court Division passed its verbal judgement declaring that the directives of May 30th 2019, cannot be sustained in law as the BTRC did not consider GP’s reply dated 27 May 2019 prior to issuance of the same. The Court also ordered the recalling of these directives and ordered the BTRC to take steps with respect to the directives within four weeks of the receipt of the certified copy of the judgement. And they were to consider the relevant provisions of the SMP regulations and GP’s reply. To date, the written judgement is yet to be published and as of now, there are no SMP restrictions on GP. However, application of various restrictions and stringent regulatory oversight likely in near future as a SMP operator and such move may result in slower than expected subscriber addition.

56.7 58.065.3

72.7 76.5

42.4%45.8%

45.0%

46.3% 46.2%

40. 0%

41. 0%

42. 0%

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90. 0

Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017 Year 2018 Year 2019

GP Subscriber and Market Share

Total Subscriber (mn) Market Share

GP Holds

46% of the SIM market

Page 5: Grameenphone Limited - CFA Institute

EQUITY RESEARCH Grameenphone Ltd. (DSE: GP; BLOOMBERG: GRAM: BD)

Page 5 of 10 This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh Equities | 04 February 2020

N.B.: Disclaimer of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the report.

UNCERTAINTY PREVAILED REGARDING UNRESOLVED DISPUTE WITH BTRC FOR AN

AUDIT CLAIM WORTH BDT125.8 BILLION:

GP’s long pending dispute with BTRC for an amount of BDT 125.79 bn audit claim remained a key worry for investors. Of the amount, BDT 84.94 Bn (Principle 22.99 Bn + Interest 61.94 Bn) was claimed by BTRC and BDT 40.86 Bn was claimed on behalf of NBR.

GP has disputed the whole audit demand claiming them based on errors in substance, methodology and procedure. Meanwhile, in response to a title suit filed by GP, the Supreme Court has recently directed Grameenphone to pay BDT 2,000 crore by February 23, 2020 but the operator expressed its intention to pay only BDT 575 crore in twelve instalments and filed a review petition to that end.

According to the company footnote disclosure, “overall BTRC audit claim comprised of 26 line items of which 22 line items are related to BTRC payments (BDT 23.0 billion as principal amount and BDT 61.9 billion as interest amount). GP didn’t make any provision based on the audit demand as according to them, there is significant uncertainty about validity of demand and outcome of dispute and, therefore, no reliable estimation of liability can be derived. The other 4 line items (with a total amount of BDT 40,859,371,405) are related to NBR with some already resolved matter or matters pending in ongoing formal resolution process (sub-judice). In the NBR matter, Grameenphone has already made relevant provisions.”

Any positive development in settlement of this dispute will positively uplift the price performance of the company in capital market as the operator still possess attractive growth potential driven by improved efficiency and leadership despite having challenging industry outlook.

RESTRICTION ON ISSUING NOC ON IMPORTING TELECOM EQUIPMENT/

SOFTWARE CONTINUED TO HALT THE BUSINESS PERFORMANCE OF

GRAMEENPHONE The telecom regulatory body has barred Grameenphone from rolling out new packages/services or importing network equipment in an attempt to pile up pressure on the operator to clear dues of BDT125.8 billion as per audit claims.

The Appellate Division ruled on GP’s injunction against the BTRC providing GP with an order for a conditional payment and extending the injunction by three months. Despite the injunctions, the BTRC continues to halt providing NOCs and restricting the company’s ability to import equipment.

Meanwhile, regulator has also stopped providing allocation of new numbers or approval to resales existing unused SIM. According to the GP CEO, existing number series with the operator and with the retailers will be stock-out in next 6 months. If the regulator doesn’t allocate new numbers, new subscriber acquisition will be seriously affected.

Page 6: Grameenphone Limited - CFA Institute

EQUITY RESEARCH Grameenphone Ltd. (DSE: GP; BLOOMBERG: GRAM: BD)

Page 6 of 10 This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh Equities | 04 February 2020

N.B.: Disclaimer of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the report.

Key Performance Indicators

Particulars Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017 Year 2018 Year 2019

Liquidity Ratios: Current Ratio 0.18 0.16 0.25 0.16 0.23 Quick Ratio 0.17 0.15 0.25 0.16 0.23 Operating Profitability Ratios Opex to sales ratio 36.36% 36.25% 34.90% 34.77% 31.39% Operating Profit Margin (OPM) 35.29% 36.19% 38.89% 42.74% 46.40% Pre Tax Profit Margin 33.34% 33.24% 36.85% 41.29% 44.48% Net Profit Margin (NPM) 18.81% 19.61% 21.35% 25.12% 24.03% Return on Total Assets (ROAA) 14.96% 17.13% 20.70% 24.43% 24.02% Return on Equity (ROE) 63.58% 70.18% 81.09% 94.11% 91.82% EBITDA Margin 53.43% 54.47% 57.06% 59.71% 62.72% Leverage Ratios Total Debt to Equity 94.50% 64.51% 41.74% 23.49% 7.65% Debt to Total Assets 21.85% 16.59% 10.58% 6.24% 1.97% Coverage Ratios Times Interest Earned (TIE) 17.85 16.63 30.51 27.85 82.83 Cash Coverage Ratio Valuation Ratios P/B (price to book) Ratio 11.16 11.43 18.66 13.46 10.06 Book Value Per Share 22.68 24.86 25.23 27.28 28.4 EPS 14.59 16.68 20.31 24.71 25.56 Dividend per Share 14 17.5 20.5 28 13 Dividend Payout Ratio 95.93% 104.90% 100.94% 113.33% 50.86% Dividend Yield Ratio 5.53% 6.16% 4.35% 7.62% 4.55% Retention Rate 4.07% -4.90% -0.94% -13.33% 49.14% P/E Ratio 17.34 17.03 23.18 14.87 11.18 EV/EBITDA 6.45 6.34 8.62 6.21 4.13 EV/Sales 3.45 3.45 4.92 3.71 2.59 Price/Sales 3.26 3.34 4.95 3.73 2.69 Sales/ Share 77.58 85.06 95.12 98.37 106.39 Growth Rates EPS Growth Rate -1.35% 14.31% 21.74% 21.66% 3.46% Dividend Growth Rate -12.50% 25.00% 17.14% 36.59% -53.57% Sales Growth Rate 2.04% 9.65% 11.82% 3.42% 8.15% Operating Profit Growth Rate 0.18% 12.45% 20.18% 13.66% 17.39% EBIT Growth Rate 0.18% 12.45% 20.18% 13.66% 17.39% Net Income Growth Rate -1.35% 14.31% 21.74% 21.66% 3.46% Dividend Payout Ratio -11.30% 9.35% -3.77% 12.27% -55.12% Total Asset Growth Rate 1.12% -1.47% 2.98% 3.22% 7.22% EBITDA 2.60% 11.78% 17.15% 8.22% 13.60% Other Data Stock price- Period End 253 284.1 470.8 367.3 285.8 Number of shares outstanding (‘000) 1,350,300 1,350,300 1,350,300 1,350,300 1,350,300 Market Cap (‘000) 341,625,906 383,620,236 635,721,250 495,965,198 385,915,746 EBITDA (‘000) 55,971,377 62,564,303 73,290,980 79,316,160 90,102,867 EV (‘000) 360,892,584 396,844,744 631,845,872 492,927,063 372,155,069 Depreciation 19,007,679 20,998,180 23,336,591 22,539,178 23,451,039 DUPONT ANALYSIS Net Profit AT/Sales 18.81% 19.61% 21.35% 25.12% 24.03% Sales/Total Assets 79.53% 87.36% 96.97% 97.28% 99.95% ROA 14.96% 17.13% 20.70% 24.43% 24.02% Net Profit AT/Total Assets 14.96% 17.13% 20.70% 24.43% 24.02% Total Assets/Stockholders’. Equity 4.25 4.1 3.92 3.85 3.82 ROE 63.58% 70.18% 81.09% 94.11% 91.82%

Page 7: Grameenphone Limited - CFA Institute

EQUITY RESEARCH Grameenphone Ltd. (DSE: GP; BLOOMBERG: GRAM: BD)

Page 7 of 10 This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh Equities | 04 February 2020

N.B.: Disclaimer of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the report.

Quarterly Income Statement

Particulars (BDT million) Quarters, 2018 Quarters, 2019

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Revenue 31,243.6 32,575.0 34,311.9 34,701.6 34,862.3 36,038.2 36,593.4 36,162.4 Revenue from mobile communication 30,748.0 32,011.2 33,928.2 34,102.0 34,381.3 35,590.2 35,884.4 35,691.1 Revenue from customer equipment 37.5 0.2 -8.2 164.1 52.3 35.6 57.2 40.3 Lease Revenue 416.1 421.7 400.3 401.8 403.1 392.2 364.6 378.4 Other revenues 42.0 141.9 -8.4 33.6 25.6 20.3 287.2 52.6 Cost of material and traffic charges 1,695.5 1,745.6 1,848.1 2,040.5 1,981.9 2,071.4 2,317.6 2,094.4 Traffic charges 1,424.2 1,528.6 1,603.7 1,497.6 1,661.8 1,853.3 1,970.9 1,767.6 Cost of material and services 271.2 217.0 244.4 542.9 320.1 218.1 346.7 326.8 Total Operating expenses 11,564.1 11,215.1 11,553.0 11,854.0 11,447.6 11,063.9 10,745.8 11,830.8 Salaries and personnel cost 1,934.1 2,042.4 2,250.3 2,334.9 2,658.9 2,280.9 2,166.1 2,331.7 Operation and maintenance 1,487.4 1,533.0 1,379.3 1,184.9 1,655.8 1,347.5 1,208.6 1,686.9 Sales, marketing and commissions 3,625.1 3,307.1 3,148.9 3,996.6 3,145.9 3,275.1 3,303.8 3,755.2 Revenue sharing, spectrum charges and license fees 2,493.7 2,394.6 2,545.9 2,136.6 2,405.0 2,482.0 2,619.2 2,601.1 Other operating (expenses)/income, net 2,023.9 1,938.0 2,228.6 2,201.0 1,582.1 1,678.4 1,448.0 1,455.9 Depreciation and amortization 6,219.6 5,744.7 5,540.0 5,034.8 5,747.4 5,848.9 5,968.9 5,885.9 PROFIT FROM OPERATIONS 11,764.4 13,869.5 15,370.8 15,772.3 15,685.3 17,054.1 17,561.1 16,351.3 Financial Expenses 284.1 506.1 493.0 531.3 532.3 471.7 852.0 667.1 Foreign Exchange (Loss)/ gain -206.4 -29.9 -44.4 166.3 -96.0 -174.7 267.7 -226.9 PROFIT BEFORE TAX 11,274.0 13,333.5 14,833.3 15,407.3 15,057.0 16,407.8 16,976.8 15,457.3 Provision for Income Tax 6,415.0 6,787.7 7,151.1 5,152.8 7,331.8 7,446.5 10,775.8 3,474.9 Provision released during the year - -2,869.7 -205.1 612.3 10.3 -198.8 - 1,409.1 Provision for Deferred Income Tax -1,535.4 -982.0 -545.5 1,504.3 -1,211.2 -392.8 -1,067.8 1,804.4 PROFIT AFTER TAX FOR THE YEAR 6,394.3 10,397.6 8,432.8 8,137.8 8,926.1 9,552.8 7,268.8 8,769.0

Page 8: Grameenphone Limited - CFA Institute

EQUITY RESEARCH Grameenphone Ltd. (DSE: GP; BLOOMBERG: GRAM: BD)

Page 8 of 10 This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh Equities | 04 February 2020

N.B.: Disclaimer of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the report.

Condensed Statement of Profit or Loss Particulars (‘000) Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017 Year 2018 Year 2019

Revenue 104,754,372 114,862,160 128,435,814 132,831,967 143,656,271

Revenue from mobile communication 100,409,598 109,691,382 123,716,181 130,789,466 141,546,924 Revenue from customer equipment 2,050,316 2,750,952 2,475,132 193,589 185,351 Lease Revenue 1,639,897 1,538,272 Other revenues 2,294,458 2,419,826 2,244,501 209,015 385,724

Cost of material and traffic charges 10,693,577 10,661,819 10,322,076 7,329,552 8,465,283 Traffic charges 5,705,995 5,732,536 5,599,981 6,054,085 7,253,612 Cost of material and services 4,987,582 4,929,283 4,722,095 1,275,467 1,211,671

Total Operating expenses 38,089,418 41,636,038 44,822,758 46,186,255 45,088,121 Salaries and personnel cost 6,373,253 8,276,052 8,826,168 8,561,724 9,437,578 Operation and maintenance 4,419,129 3,757,496 4,011,750 5,584,552 5,898,863 Sales, marketing and commissions 12,913,376 12,497,326 11,256,660 14,077,660 13,480,018 Revenue sharing, spectrum charges and license fees 8,255,606 8,902,203 9,816,951 9,570,806 10,107,313 Other operating expenses/(income), net 6,128,054 8,202,961 10,911,229 8,391,513 6,164,349 Depreciation and amortization 19,007,679 20,998,180 23,336,591 22,539,178 23,451,039 PROFIT FROM OPERATIONS 36,963,698 41,566,123 49,954,389 56,776,982 66,651,828 Financial Expenses 1,940,737 2,591,068 1,467,214 1,814,496 2,523,060 Impairment loss on investment in associates/ (Gain) on sale of shares in GPIT

0 486,828 124,572 0

Foreign Exchange (Loss)/ gain -115,721 -86,006 -1,164,885 -114,432 -229,809 Share on profit (loss) on associate (net of tax) 15,119 -223,815 0 -114,432 0 PROFIT BEFORE TAX 34,922,359 38,178,406 47,322,290 54,609,050 63,898,959 Provision for Income Tax 14,720,427 15,370,586 22,260,632 25,506,618 29,028,970 Provision released during the year -2,462,455 1,220,596 Provision for Deferred Income Tax 495,041 281,465 -2,360,990 -1,558,677 -867,367 PROFIT AFTER TAX FOR THE YEAR 19,706,891 22,526,355 27,422,648 33,123,564 34,516,760 EPS (BDT) 14.59 16.68 20.31 24.71 25.56

Page 9: Grameenphone Limited - CFA Institute

EQUITY RESEARCH Grameenphone Ltd. (DSE: GP; BLOOMBERG: GRAM: BD)

Page 9 of 10 This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh Equities | 04 February 2020

N.B.: Disclaimer of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the report.

Statement of Financial Position Particulars ('000) Year 2015 Year 2016 Year 2017 Year 2018 Year 2019

STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION 74,376,014 76,860,894 71,146,463 70,072,494 63,087,501 ASSETS: 41,045,545 38,183,422 35,229,998 47,311,582 2,274,803 Non-Current Assets: 120,521,755 119,558,270 114,592,246 125,344,674 127,735,251

Property, Plant and Equipment-Carrying Value 61,122,060 67,481,332 61,499,097 62,880,279 56,341,823 Intangible Assets, net 40,874,063 38,110,105 34,566,942 47,014,707 1,583,860 Right-of-use assets 58,028,533 Capital Work in Progress 13,253,954 9,379,562 9,647,366 7,192,215 6,745,678

For Tangible Fixed Assets 13,082,472 9,306,245 8,984,310 6,895,340 6,054,735 For Intangible Assets 171,482 73,317 663,056 296,875 690,943

Contract cost 0 0 5,030,346 4,438,240 4,480,157 Investment in Associates Companies 710,643 0 0 0 0 Other Non-Current Assets 4,561,035 4,587,271 3,848,495 3,819,233 555,200

Current Assets: 11,927,812 10,941,241 19,799,199 13,368,698 20,999,171

Inventories 435,340 565,404 462,440 224,359 225,441 Trade Debtors 7,339,372 7,463,977 6,922,091 7,212,047 7,013,053 Short term Investment 0 0 0 Cash and Cash Equivalents 4,153,100 2,911,860 12,414,668 5,932,292 13,760,677

TOTAL ASSETS 132,449,567 130,499,511 134,391,445 138,713,372 148,734,422 SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY AND LIABILITIES: Shareholders' Equity: 30,625,258 33,572,284 34,066,234 36,836,399 38,347,405

Share Capital 13,503,000 13,503,000 13,503,000 13,503,000 13,503,000 Share Premium 7,840,226 7,840,226 7,840,226 7,840,226 7,840,226 Share Money Deposit 1,880 1,880 1,880 1,880 1,880 Capital Reserve 14,446 14,446 14,446 14,446 14,446 General Reserve 0 0 0 Retained Earnings/ Revenue Reserve 9,265,706 12,212,732 12,706,682 15,476,847 16,987,853

Non-Current Liabilities: 34,199,132 28,419,877 22,051,134 18,913,590 19,960,795

Long Term Loans - Secured 18,964,209 13,556,284 8,539,290 2,894,157 Net defined benefit plans 1,444,641 1,335,086 426,466 1,599,122 936,703 Obligation under finance lease 5,207,147 5,093,612 4,930,194 4,708,977 13,484,106 Deferred Tax Liability 7,910,630 8,235,939 7,731,449 6,032,336 5,216,029 Liability for capital expenditure Other Non-Current Liabilities 672,505 198,956 423,735 3,678,998 323,957

Current Liabilities: 67,625,177 68,507,350 78,274,077 82,963,383 90,426,222

Short Term Bank Loans 4,455,569 2,580,084 0 Current portion of LTD 5,520,000 5,520,000 5,679,626 5,759,145 2,934,284 Lease Liabilities 7,349,549 Trade Creditors (including liability for Capex) 22,575,339 25,363,165 24,225,379 26,393,337 22,676,406 Current Tax Liabilities 19,785,655 18,942,559 26,392,380 28,563,588 28,137,225 Provision for operating expenses 14,077,929 14,274,056 19,033,499 19,423,795 18,839,102 Other Current Liabilities 1,210,685 1,827,486 2,943,193 2,823,518 10,489,656

TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY AND LIABILITIES 132,449,567 130,499,511 134,391,445 138,713,372 148,734,422 NAVPS 22.68 24.86 25.23 27.28 28.40

Page 10: Grameenphone Limited - CFA Institute

EQUITY RESEARCH Grameenphone Ltd. (DSE: GP; BLOOMBERG: GRAM: BD)

Page 10 of 10 This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh Equities | 04 February 2020

N.B.: Disclaimer of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the report.

1. AMPU: Average Minutes Per User Per Month 2. ARPU: Average Revenue Per User Per Month 3. APPM: Average Price Per Minutes 4. DPS: Dividend Per Share 5. EBIT= Earnings before Interest and Tax 6. EBITDA= Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortization 7. EPS= Earnings per Share. 8. Free Float Share= Total shareholding- Sponsor or directors holding 9. GP: Grameenphone Ltd. 10. LTM: Trailing 12 Months 11. NAVPS= Net Asset Value Per Share 12. NPAT: Net Profit after Tax 13. OPEX= Operating Expenditure 14. PBT: Profit Before Tax 15. ROA= Return on Average Assets 16. ROE= Return on Average Equity 17. SMS: Short Message Service 18. VAS: Value Added Services 19. 2G, 3G & 4G/LTE: Second-Generation, Third Generation, Forth Generation/ Long-Term Evolution

Cellular Technology

Page 11: Grameenphone Limited - CFA Institute

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Page 12: Grameenphone Limited - CFA Institute

About EBL Securities Ltd.: EBL Securities Ltd. (EBLSL) is one of the fastest growing full-service brokerage companies in Bangladesh and a fully owned subsidiary of Eastern Bank Limited. EBLSL is also one of the top five leading stock brokerage houses of the country. EBL Securities Limited is the TREC-holder of both exchanges of the country; DSE (TREC# 026) and CSE (TREC# 021). EBLSL takes pride in its strong commitment towards excellent client services and the development of the Bangladesh capital markets. EBLSL has developed a disciplined approach towards providing capital market services, including securities trading, margin loan facilities, depository services, foreign trading facilities, Bloomberg Terminal, online trading facilities, research services, panel brokerage services, trading through NITA for foreign investors & NRBs etc.

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