graham slater's 2013 svp talk
DESCRIPTION
My SVP 2013 talk on modeling mammalian body size evolutionTRANSCRIPT
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Graham SlaterDepartment of Paleobiology, National Museum of
Natural History
Tempo or Mode in Evolution? The Case of Mammalian Body
Size Evolution
www.fourdimensionalbiology.com
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- Gene Hunt- Pete Wagner- Jon Marcot- Dave Bapst- Tom Ezard- Gavin Thomas- Andy Purvis
- Peter Smits- Greg Wilson
authors
- Luke Harmon*- Rob Freckleton- Sam Ponton
- Arne Mooers- Dave Polly- Folmer Bokma- Graeme Lloyd
organization reviews
data
“Unifying Fossils and Phylogenies for Comparative Analyses of Diversification
and Trait Evolution”
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How fast do animals evolve? That is one of
the fundamental questions regarding evolution.
Photo: Florida Museum of Natural History
Simpson (1944, 1953)
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is our emphasis on rates appropriate?
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Illustration by Mark Hallet
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Eoce
ne
Olig
oce
ne
Mio
cene
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Alroy (1999) Systematic Biology
fossil data show a rapid increase in body size disparity after the K-Pg
Sd
(m
ass
)
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Venditti et al. (2011) Nature
K Pg NgJ
relative rate
phylogenetic data suggest increased rates with the origin of modern
orders
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Do we really think the Tempo of mammalian
body size evolution increased after the K-
PG extinction?
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the mammalian body size zone
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the mammalian body size zone
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the mammalian body size zone
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variation in tempo
evolution slow
evolution fast
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variation in mode
evolution constrained
evolution unconstrained
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3 paleo-motivated models for mammalian body size evolution
BM rate 1 BM rate 2
Mesozoic CenozoicK-Pg rate shift
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck BM
Mesozoic Cenozoicecological release
Mesozoic Cenozoicrelease and radiate
BM*Ornstein-Uhlenbeck
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time calibrated phylogeny of living and fossil mammals
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Estimating body masses for Mesozoic mammals
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standard models paleo-inspired models
Brownian motion
directional
evolution
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck
Accelerating /
Decelerating
white noise
K-Pg Shift
ecological
release
release & radiate
extant taxa only
extant + fossils
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release & radiate fits best for extant taxa...
standard models paleo-inspired models
Brownian motion
directional
evolution
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck
Accelerating /
Decelerating
white noise
K-Pg Shift
ecological
release
release & radiate
extant taxa only
extant + fossils
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...and more so for the fossil dataset
standard models paleo-inspired models
Brownian motion
directional
evolution
Ornstein-Uhlenbeck
Accelerating /
Decelerating
white noise
K-Pg Shift
ecological
release
release & radiate
extant taxa only
extant + fossils
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Parameter Mesozoic Cenozoic
rate (σ2) 0.97 0.1
faster rates of body size evolution in the Cenozoic?
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Brownian motion is a diversifying process
time
ph
en
oty
pe
rate σ2
starting state starting state
σ2 * time
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time
ph
en
oty
pe
σ2 / 2α
rubber band parameter α
OU is an equilibrium process
rate σ2
starting state starting state
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time
ph
en
oty
pe
Brownian motionOrnstein-Uhlenbeck
BM and OU simulated at the same rate give very different disparities
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the OU process has an equilibrium disparity
ln(b
ody m
ass
) dis
pari
ty
Mesozoic CenozoicT J PgK Ng
α= 0.01σ2 = 0.97
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Mesozoic CenozoicT J PgK Ng
a low BM rate increases disparityln
(body m
ass
) dis
pari
ty
σ2 = 0.1α= 0.01σ2 = 0.97
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Do we really think the Tempo of mammalian
body size evolution increased after the K-
PG extinction?
Variation in the Mode of evolution is a more intuitive and
more likely explanation that
variation in Tempo
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Do we really think the Tempo of mammalian
body size evolution increased after the K-
PG extinction?
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How fast do animals evolve? That is one of
the fundamental questions regarding evolution.
Photo: Florida Museum of Natural History
Simpson (1944, 1953)
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From Simpson (1953)
Simpson’s adaptive zones