graded membership in the europen union: good governance and

7/26/2019 Graded Membership in the Europen Union: Good Governance and

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Graded Membership in the European Union:

G Gvc D I

F Sclf

No. 73 | June 2016

WORKING PAPER


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2 | KFGWorking Paper No. 73 | June 2016

KFG Working Paper Series

Edited by the Kolleg-ForschergruppeT T Pw E

T KFG W P S v c l f Kll-Fc y

vll lc. I c cc xc wll

x c c l xl c E E U.

All KFG W P vll KFG w www.f. c v

l f-@f-l..

Cy f : F Sclf

El c c: Dy Kl, J W

Sclf, F 2016: G M E U: G Gvc D

I, KFG W P S, N. 73, J 2016, Kll-Fc (KFG) T Tfv Pw- f E, F Uv Bl.

ISSN 1868-6834 (P)

ISSN 1868-7601 (I)

T lc f y G Rc F (DFG).

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Kll-Fc

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I. 26

14195 Bl

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P: +49 (0)30- 838 57033

Fx: +49 (0)30- 838 57096

f-@f-l.

www.f.


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Graded Membership in the European Union | 3

Graded Membership in the European Union:

Good Goveranance and Differentiated Integration

Frank Schimmelfennig

Abstract

T y f E lly fc zl w:

w f E U (EU). By c, cl lyz zl ,

c wc f, f, fll vl l --

w f . I c w EU y f vl,

xl f y. T c c f EU f

vc. T cl E c , cl

c. S c fll f f f y c:

c w vc. O c f f c

y f f c c: c vc

v. T cjc c l ly f E c.

T A

Frank Schimmelfennig Pf f E lc ETH Zc

f C f Cv Il S. H cv

M.A. lcl cc y (1989), PD lcl cc

(1995) f Uvy f T l lcl

cc D Uvy f Tcly (2001). Bf j ETH Zc 2005, w fllw f M C f E Scl Rc.

H c y f E , c-

l EU l, ccy , cz,

.


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Contents

1. Ic 5

2. Tz G M 7

2.1 A Model of Dierenaon 7

2.2 Explaining State Posions in a System of Graded Membership 9

2.3 Alternave Explanaons 12

3. T D f M E I 13

4. G Gvc G M 19

5. Ccl 24

References 26

Ax 29

L F Tl

F 1: A Ml f D 8

F 2: Dvl f G EU M (1952-2015) 14

F 3: D f E C c G f

M (1952-2015) 18

F 4: Wlw Gvc Ic M G 21

F 5: Ec f G Gvc EU M P 23

Tl 1: G f M EU Rl Sy 16

Tl 2: T EU Sy f G M 2015 (w c) 20

Tl 3: R Rl 22


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1. I1

I c f y, E U (EU)2has acquired competences in almost all areas of

lc lcy f w f l . I , x f x 28 c. T vl E

w v z lyz xvly l

E . I w, c yc f E vwl-

ly l w fcl, y, l w f EU z. T

f cv l l l z: cclz

f l fc lvl f y lcy c f -

l z (K l. 2001; Acy/J 2007; H/M 2015; Hl 2013).

T cv. F, f fc w f

EU cc y c f . A cc f

EU v w, E c l f. W lly l-

icies applied to allmember states and to member states only, cc f lcy

c cly l. Ty c EU lc c

y Sc f l l cl, EU ly xcl

w f c w f . O ,

c EU c (Ty), l (Icl Nwy),

Sc , y ccl , , c . Aq cc f

yc f E v y xclv fc w-

cl c f f E c.

Sc, l cly zl cv. I c f ,

EU c f v l l c f E. A c

f c v ccl fl w EU, wc y f

c . N E cy cly w c .3T

w cv , x EU lly l y.

W c f lcy EU f l

, yc y- ly l cly (Hlz/Sclf 2012).Mcl x . F c, l- E, c E, vl y,

1 My w f fllw KFG T Tfv Pw f E (FU

Bl), c y Tj Bzl T R. F lfl c, I l Mcl Bcl, J

Bl, J C, T Fy, T Wz, A W, c Uv f B,

Dl (UCD), ETH Zc, S. Gll, T wll E U S Ac (EUSA), Plcl

Ecy f Il Oz (PEIO), Sw Plcl Scc Ac (SPSA) cv. A

v v f wll l E Jl f Plcl Rc.

2 T , fc EU cl c z, E C.

3 Kv, w vlly cz cy, cly c . T

P C A w Bl c f lcl

cy.


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E l c v l clly lcl c (S 1996). I , l-

z EU fzzy (C l. 2000) f f ccc

ccl f xl vc (Lvx 2011). Rc c f EU c

w f fzzy, xl c f f fc y l (Bc/G 2007; M 2012; Zl 2006). Mv, cc f

c w lc cl c. I l w Sc cc f c (1996:

136), L l. (2013) c y f , wc c

vl vl clz f lc.

Ex cv ly v fc EU c-

f EU cc. Ty v fw vy f xl f -

f -, cl wl w (Ml 1999), cc l c (I

2000), l cc (Pl/Sc 2007; Sc 2009), ccy (Sclf

2003), l y (Gl 2002), lcy y (Kll 2001; 2006). M cly, Sclf

Wz (2014) c c f fc: w wl l v -

cx f l, l f c w

xl cx f y v.

T vc f w wy. F, v y v

l fc w EU EU l w -

y v ly f c-c fl zl

f EU. I c fc c xl

. Sc, v y ylcl c y

fw yclly y- xl f .

I ll, I c f l -

l w E . Tw y f c

: w f (f) , f y c f EU.

W lc EU y f wc y -

f f wc y lc f f . Nw f

c f f f c c f

f fl q.

I f v, v l , vc qly

ccy w c l . T f f c

w c f c l ly f vc E

, y c EU . I EU, w j -

: ll ccy vc ccy. W f f c f

vc, f c fll f . B vflll flll c

vc cc. S f c cc wll c

vc ccy w l ccy. T c v, l

c y f f lw . Slly,

c c f f f c wll l EU vc


7/32


c l f lcy- lcy l. T f

cl cclly v vc ccy, f y

v w fll . A cqc, c y v f

. Ty y v c c ( f f), y y l wll-v c ( f f).

I x c, I vl cl l. I c w EU y

f vl v . Sqly, I l ly, wc

c f vc EU f E c c -1990,

cll f lv xl.

2. Tz G M

Wy w l z l y f wy

c lv f ? I w l l f .

O f l, I yz wc c c c

wc fc v f cy c.

2.1 A Model of Dierenaon

I f qc f c

w f z ( F 1). I

c y c lc c f

v f f c wc c lly . R, c -

fl. T j w c f EU

c f f w v f x ; y f q -

vl c c. D c f ll ;

w q f - x cv w .

L w ycl y z, wc w (n=2): -

. A f l cc w -

. If ll v cl fc, f c

f f fll c f w. If l cvl,

wv, v . S y f f (f) . W l f

, y f c z y

cl f y . Lw, y cl -

, cl y, z. If ,

c q: w.


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Figure 1: A Ml f D

Source: A.

D v lv cc w q

, fll f . I c f , llw

v wl f f c

f . I c f w, w c fll

c f lw f llw f c lc

f fll . Cvly, w c f

f c lw fll .

If f w f q -

, q l. Ty y cc, f

c, f-, c, c c f c l f

(Kll 2001). By c, f f

wll v ly q, f l , y

c w .

I fllw f , c ly w x-

c y v c : . T l l

cc fc c -

. Ow, c c f f y f


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q. T y wll cly l v f lvl f

c cc y cll f fc y w w l f

w . I f w f l f

() lc f x y f () f c f w q.

2.2 Explaining State Posions in a System of Graded Membership

Hw v y f ? A, f

() l w z. W

w v y lz l w EU. T q

z , y v j. If z jc

q, jc v, fl. If , v

lvl f , c l j c, l z

jc f . D cc ly fl f z-

. W l z, c c w w

l c w y w

in or out.

T xl wy v lvl f wy y jc jc f

, I f z v f vc. G

vc c w lc f z l.

I EU l-lvl z, vc f E lvl

. T c f f l v f Ty E

U cc cc c f EU.

T y v c f Acl 2: T U f vl f c f

y, f, ccy, qly, l f lw c f , cl

f l . T cl f ll ccy ly U

. T U ly cz , f cl w C f Fl R (A. 6.1), l cc ll-cc cl f

E Cv f Pc f H R Fl F l

cl f U lw (A. 6.2). T Pv Dcc Pcl f l,

, fc f U ll f v ccy (A. 10.1).

A , Ty c y E c vl f ll

ccy y ly (A. 49). S f c f vl y

v f c f , cl v (A. 7.2 7.3).

A f EU vc f l-lvl f U. W

Ty c c v cl wc y cf cc

jcv y v c (A. 1), ll y


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[] flll f l f T l f c f

f U (A. 4.3). I f cvly clz l z-

, EU w v cl ccy l l

l lc . I l f cl cc c, l w Cc, EU f ly q c vl f ll ccy

l vl fc cy ly l f -

y l ll l w EU l v

l ccy cvly l .4I , EU f vc c-

ll ccy vc ccy.By c, EU c y

cc (wl w), cll (l), c c (y E ).

I cl E c E cly

vc f w . I ll y ly v y

lcl cc l (Mvc 1998). Ty c, wv, w v-

c qly f E c f l w w c

vc qly c y E .

T E lcl vc ccy l w f

EU, lly . T fll c f EU f

, lly EU f vc. Ty c f ll

ccy vc ccy f f . O E v f

w c c f f fll .

T f ccz y vc: y f c vc ccy

cc qly. Bc c c wl EU cc v-

c ccy, c wl wlc fll . Y y v

cl fll . H-qly c vc l cz cl f,

/ c f E . T l w c vc

c EU vc, l c f f.

Gv c c w -qly c vc v cvly w -

cv E f wll c ccqly vc ccy. Svy c w lv -vc cy c

E (Al l. 2012; Mz l. 2011). S f w

c w lw lvl f c wlf (Scz-Cc 2000).

Cc vy ccy c ll f c c c l-

v f E-c , wc v w v f (fll) EU

(S 2013). T cly lly wll-fc cc

c (S 2013: 135) ccfl lcl lcy (Tl 2004: 640) f c.

4 S, .., E C f cc c, vll : ://c../l-

/lcy/ly//cc-c_.; l cc 29 Mc 2016.


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Plcl E-c w ly 1992 D f Mc (S/

Sv 1993) y c f 2016 Bx c cy

f EU lw cc, xl EU ccy.5 Sw E-c ly v y

cv f E lcl f c ccy,ly, fl, wc c c f Swzl cvc y (Tl 2004).

Mv, l l l c w

. M w lw vc ccy y lw cv l-

c lc (Tll 2002: 613). C ql l

lvl ly l EU c. El cz c w vc ccy

f v f w lw-ccy c wll c c v-

c ccy cv f l . T c l w y

wc c wll c f w y wll .

H1a: Countries with beer governance than the EU core are likely to refuse full integraon.

H1b: The membership grade of refusing countries is likely to decrease as their governance improves.

Cvly, f c ccz y w vc: y fll f c -

f ll ccy vc ccy. T c f

f lcl l . Ty cc EU EU f; y xc -

c vc ccy; y v f l l c-

EU w (Sclf 2003: 52-55). P-cc

c l jc EU lcl cly

(Vcv 2005).

T c f, wv, f w-vc c wll l f

ll ccy w U lcy- ccy. EU cz lc -

cc wll-v c (Dly 2007). T c l w f

c f , wll l, l cc y lw

vc ccy . I v w c, f c cz

v cc qly, y vc ccy (Ml/Pl2002). T jcv f EU cly lcy w - l;

c l y, EU z l f lw cl. T c y

about the refused countries read:

H2a: Countries with worse governance than the EU core are likely to be refused full integraon.

H2b: The membership grade of refused countries is likely to increase as their governance improves.

5 S w f V Lv c: ://www.vlvcl./_c; l cc 29

March 2016.


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T y ly vc qly c f f

c. A lly ly v c c cc cq

vc ccy, y f v cl c. A

wll-v c c cc v, wv, vw f c. A l, c c lc lvl f f vy

c y -v w-v c c.

Flly, y l l l c: vc , f

c l l lw , w f c l

w EU.

2.3 Alternave Explanaons

A c, vy f lv xl v vc

l cc f () EU. Ty z wl, cll lcl

lc, y, ly. T fc ly lv xl; l

qlfy l c f vc , y c

w vc . T lv xl cll f

ly.

Wealth ly lv xl vc f f

c EU y f . Al f cl c-

f EU, f ly ll lc EU . I Wl Ml

(1999) cc f l , cc ( vc) fc

v f v c. P c c

cc EU EU , c f v, v c-

v; , y c c c y wl c c f

EU , xc c f EU , c y wl

(Pl/Sc 2007; Sclf/Wz 2014). Accly, lw c-

y wl, lw f wc wll f f . Cvly,

wly c lc f f f l . I , y c f v l vy lcy- y. Flly, wl

w fcl lz ccy (.. L 1959; Pzw l. 2000) c v-

c ccy.

Cultural and polical legacies f l c vc EU

. F, E lly E (N 1999)

c Ox Cy, Il, Sv c. S w c cll c

lly f ( f) . Cvly, v refuser

c v P cll c (Tl 2004). T y v c

ly Clc f f EU c c f P w

vc (Lc l. 2007). Geography clly l cl P c cl


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N-W E, w Ox, Ml, f c c lc E.

I , wv, cl xy lly c v v c

wll fly. F , cl cy c, lly l

f cy EU cl . I , cl xy fcl f vc .

Naonal identyc f xl f . Exclv l

c f E (Cy 2002; H/M 2005) c ll

f EU y v (Sclf/Wz 2014). S w ly

xclv l lly f . I , y y

clly y c lc f fll .

O xl f lcy lvl. Kll (2001, 2006)

ly f cllcv f lc q:

xcll w -vl c c cv f clv ,

w c l c c cv f l . By c,

Sclf Wz (2014) c l-l w f c

w. S f c Ez Sc , , lcy--

cc. Plcy- xl wy xl (c w)

, y, l ( -c w). I l w Kll, w f

Ez Sc v c w y v. F

vl , wv, lcy ccc qlfy lv xl f -

. M cy-lvl y, lcy ccc. Bc lcy ccc

vy c c, y l c xl wy c

. Mv, lcy-cc c vl lcy .

3. T D M E I

T cv cl ly f c v vl . F,

l w cl , I c w w -l cl cc w x f clly

ly x EU y f . I , I v cl vc

vc ly f xclv l c . Sc, I

w EU y f ly c cly v

l f vll w .

Flly, I c vl cv clc f , wc wll v

vl q l ly.

F 2 ll vl f E . T cvl

f E c Ty f P l E Cl

Sl Cy (ECSC) 1952. T ECSC w l y


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c. By c, Ty f R l E Ecc Cy (EEC) 1958

provided for the associaonf c (A. 238) lw l. Ac

w ly cy f f E c xlcly c Ty f

Rome.6

T c w w EEC Gc 1961. T l f (jc) l l Cy c c fc

f Gc f c f f -

l (Pl 2006: 179-214). Sq w, wv, c f

l. I clcl .

Figure 2: Dvl f G EU M (1952-2015)

Source: A.

T c w S. A f c w EEC Gc,

S v, , x j Cy ccl c

-. W v w lly fvl S q, y vlly jc lz y Ply Aly

E c f -cc (T 2006). A cl

z, S c E cy fltrade agreement

w EEC 1967.

W cc w B, D, Il, Nwy w lc 1970,

f E F T Ac (EFTA) free trade agree-

mentsw EEC. T f c f A, Fl, Sw,

Swzl w ly fll l c w EEC, ly

6 A f v l c f v .


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l l -l Cl W. Y y l v f

y l w B, D, Nwy EFTA (Gl/S 2000).

F , fl w c c. A -w l,

EEC v Scl Rl A l f w f c, Icl, Pl ( 1972 1973). Nwy j v jc cc f.

A EEC (-fl) w Ylv 1970, -

c x c y l c. Y EU l c f

c Ylv w cc cy cy. I, E

Cy (EC) c w y f , cv CooperaonA

1980 cv l f lcy cl y, , cl, ,

v, (C f E C 1988). Exly l f -

c w l w Ylv cz l 1980 w

cvl w . Fllw Ylv c, c (w P

C A) w wly y EU l w -Sv c

c w cc cy f Cl W.

D fl -1980. Oly v f 10

SchengenA l l f cc c 1985. T

l l f w y f fl. T UK ( Il w), D Gc

jc f lq cl f l ; Ily w lly

v f j c w c cl xl cvly (G

1998; Kll 2006: 212f). T l v w jc vl, Sc-5 c-

cl vl y Cy fw. T Sc v -

l lc (c yl lcy) w EU y Ty f A f 1997

v y.

I Sl E Ac f 1986, EC f l l l 1993.

F cc l f v v, f f EC v

c lc l . W xc f A, y lly fll -

, wv. A , EC w v w wl w y

l l . I 1989, C P Jcq Dl f - c f E Ecc A (EEA), v f market integraonw fl

EC membership.

I 1990, EC Ecc My U. T B v

l ccy f f ; D, w jc f. A

cqc, Ty E U (1992) c fl - f monetary unionfor

w c. T v w Ez f EU c c

f f EU .

F 1990 cc - c. I Swzl, f-

EEA Ty fl Dc 1992. Bc cy w xcl


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f l , wv, f ll l

v f EEA l l c 1994. Flly, EU v fl

status of candidate country 1997, w c cc c w Cl

E E lc cl ly w v flll lclcc c (Sclf 2003: 100-105). Mv, Ty c ly

xcl f cc c y lc f l w EU Cy y -

v f NATO fcl f EU . By Ty f c f -

1999, EU ccv w c lf cl cc -

( 2000: 470). Sc , EU c w c

f vc, wl f c cc .

I , EU lly c. S w c c

f fl -, wc c ll l z, -

l f cc , wc c y y EU c, c

l fl f c f. W xc f Ty f R

c , c w f c

w l, wc cl cc f x c.

T c f v vc vc ly l

EU c c w . T l f , c,

c w clly v y EU S, Ylv, f

Cl E E c, Ty EU vc c f

f . By c, UK D Sc y wll

Sw ll w v y l c l cc

l vy. T l wll yclly lw.

Table 1: G f M EU Rl Sy

Formal

membership

12 Cl

11 My

10 A f F, Scy, Jc (AFSJ)

9 Ecc

Formal

-8 Acc

7 Ccy

6 Il (EEA)

5 Ac

4 Bll

3 F T A

2 C

1 T

0 N lz l

Source: A.


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T EU f f qlv . W l f EU w c

- cl, v v cc vl x f

Cy lw, f l f c f z v w typesof

fl . A f y f l w, f -ship represent a rank order. Ec w f w ccly f x

lw f . Tl 1 w cly f

lz l cl .

W f f fl - fllw f c f jcy

f v, f fl c c f

- f l : Ez A

f F, Scy, Jc (AFSJ) c Sc jc lc.

All f EU c flly l lc (c c-

lcy c c lcy). T cc f EU c

c l f fl ; c y AFSJ

c cl ; y f Ez w fll c-

AFSJ; AFSJ xcl y .

Ev clc cv c cl EU cc, cl lly c-

c cvly l cl f . M f cly

lvl, x f l l, c, f lcy (Bzl

2005; H/M 2015).T lvl / c f lly c w vy f

lw f cl. C v l c ;

FTA cc c w c . Swzl ll

v y f- cw l ll ccc f EEA

c ycl f c. Ccy cl c fll -

f EEA c. Flly, lvl c f y

cc , f f cc y , c f

f y c AFSJ lly.

F 2 ll ly EU v v f . I l w

EU y f lly cl v . F f l Tl 1, F 2 w w y f w lc (l l)

w y w clly ( l) y v y.7El f -

v lly c ; (clly f -1970 -1980),

ll x f w , . Cly, ll c f f

EU y f , 11 f 13 v y l

E c 2010. Flly, F 2 w y lly l c

1997. Wl c c v c f , c wc y

v c. T l f l ly c l f

7 U l cy fl w EU

. F c, f c f FTA .


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EU, l cl f y f yc

vl f ly 1990.

F 3 w w c f v c f c y w 1952 2015. C cl cy w lc,

clly - c w, c cc y; fl

w , fl - l . A cl f

y f Cl W clly vl. N ly f c c ly

w vy fw xc ( Ylv, Kv) ll c f v f

EU y f . B f -Cl W , f

E c EU y lly f v -

c l v . F 1952 1969, E cy cl l l-

w EU; 1989, w . I 1991, E cy

w c w EC; 2014, EU . I

cc y , wv. O , f E c w

c f 23 c 1952 100 c 2014, f

fl EU c 64 c. O , f clly

c ly c f 23 39 c f E c c 1952. T c f

l v v c lvl f f f

. T cv cl c f f E

.

Figure 3: D f E C c G f M (1952-2015)

Source: A.


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4. G G G M

T q ly x yz l w vc cy

EU y f wy-y c -1990, wlcll cvcly l f c f lv xl. T cc-

z y cl cl cy fcl cv ly. T ly E

l y c y f Cl W lly . A f c f

M 2006 Kv 2008, f E c c.8Mv,

c f EU l: w w l. Flly,

cy wc f f f cy vc v. 9O w, y E

c v c ll. T f f , f l c

, f c D, Il, Nwy, Swzl, UK. I ,

l c lz ly E f 1950 1990,

w Cl W l ly c . T f ly

l l cy-y.

T vl f E cy EU y f

f y.10A cy c (cc Tl 1)

y f c (f v. f c).11I v --

l, l f vl, f f c

c f 0-11; flly c f 12; f f

c c f 13-24 lvl f c. T f llw

lyz -l c f vc l. Lw vc qly l

lw f f; vc qly v, c

cly cl c; c xc vc f c, wv, c

xc f f f wy f c vc

qly c. Tl 2 l f c f l

f 2015.

8 E cl ll c cl cc c EU . T cl

Ty, c f S Cc (A, Azj, G), W f Sv

lc (Bl, Mlv, U) R, .. cly 44 E c. T E

c- xcl, .

9 A l c A c, R , c w EU

2013.

10A cv ly, c w fl f l-

v (), c cy, cc Sc z.

T c lly, f w signingf . S

Ax 3.

11N I c l c. F c, w Czc Rlc, Hy, Pl w

c , - z lly l f fl f

old member states.


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Table 2: T EU Sy f G M 2015 (w c)

Hemisphere

Circle

R R

Cl (C) 12 A, Bl, E, Fl, Fc, Gy, Gc,

Ily, Lv, L, Lx, Ml, Nl,

Pl, Slv, Slv, S

My 13 Il 11 Cy

AFSJ 14 Sw 10 Czc Rlc, Hy,

Pl

E 15 D, UK 9 Bl, C, R

A 16 --- 8 M, S, Ty

Candidacy 17 Icl 7 Al, Mc

Il k (EEA) 18 Nwy 6 ---

A 19 --- 5 B-Hcv, G,

Mlv, U

Bilateralism 20 Swzl 4 ---

Free Trade Area 21 --- 3 ---

C 22 --- 2 A, Azj

Trade agreement 23 --- 1 Bl

N lz l 24 --- 0 Kosovo

Source: A.

T xly vl vc l c f Wlw

Gvc Ic (WGI).12T WGI clly l f ly c y

c c f EU f vc: ll ccy vc

ccy. T x c vc ccly l f lw f ll ccy

lcl ly, v cv, ly qly, cl f c f v-

c ccy. T WGI f vy f c cl vy, NGO ,

f vc, lc c z, vll f 1996-2014.13WGIc vy ly w -2 2. Bc y f relavevc

l l f vc, vl c

f cy WGI c f WGI f c v y. T WGI c f c

c c f 1.41 1996 1.12 2014, c f EU f

vc.

12S w f WGI jc, vll ://f.wl./vc/w/x.x#; 2

June 2016.

13S WGI D Sc, vll ://f.wl./vc/w/x.x#c-c; 2 J

2016. Vl f 1997 1999 w y l .


21/32


Figure 4: Wlw Gvc Ic M G

0

5

10

15

20

core

Membershipgrade

-3 -2 -1 0 1

mean WGI of European countries (distance to mean of the core)

N: Scl f E cy l 1996-2014, l cy-y (=.90).

Source: A.

F 4 l WGI c f E c v l

f yz c. I , w cl w WGI

c f f f c. All -c E c v WGI

f c f; lw c f. T c

vc fcly c w c f f (fll) . By c,

c w c c -c c l clly y vc.

I l wy , w y f c c c f WGI

c, f c lly fll w f c vc qly.

I cc f lv xl y cl vl x c

w y vy c . Wl l l f x- l

GDP c c c-w c lv lv c

c v (F l. 2013). Bc ly vll l 2011 (

f Kv), cl wl c f v. Cll lcl lc wll

y -v.14Bc I vly c

14 T c Ax 1 v vl vc f cl cll

. W f c ly lc w f E, f c

ly lc .


22/32


y y f vc c, I cl f y cl

x c. A l lvly l ( -E vll)15, I

c c ly x, . T x-c l c f

ll v y w c. Flly, I cl y x-cly c c w vc lly c y l -

y v c w Kv 1999 EU c.

I vy f l l f ly ( Tl 3). Ev

l cl, f c lvly l (25) F 2

f w l l. I v ly ,

vl l y y.

Ml 1 c cv ly v l OLS ly. Ml 2 -

c wl, cl vl. A xc, wl vly c w ,

c z f cc f WGI c, v l c -

w vc c.16W l OLS f Ml

1 2 f l c c c v

yc c f c w vc ,

cc cll cl y c f lv

xl.

Table 3: R Rl

1 2 3

G

(WGI )

4.80 (.33)*** 3.47 (.63)*** 2.73 (.38)***

Wl (l GDP ..) 1.59 (.64)* .32 (.43)

Y x Y

Cy x Y

Constant 12.34 (.42)*** -3.86 (6.44) 6.30 (4.62)

N 813 677 677

R2 .81 .83 .92E OLS OLS OLS

Standard errors Cy-cl Cy-cl Pl-cc

N: I vl l y y. ***


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Ml 3 cy y x c. I cc f l ccy lly

cl , y P-W w l-cc .17The

l c c f vc , w wl c -

c. F 5 w c cv l. A cll f wl, y cy x c, - c WGI c (lv c) c c

v y l w f cc lw f l

c c w f c w WGI c (ly c

f -1.9 .6 f c ). A ly c F 4, l c w l wll

f f. I, c ly fly c f c w vy WGI c y wll

f. I l, wv, c f xc v c f f w

fw v.18

Figure 5: Ec f G Gvc EU M P

0

5

10

15

core

Membersh

ipgrade

-3 -2 -1 0 1

WGI score (distance to core mean)

N: Pcv l w 95% cc vl Ml 3 (Tl 3).

Source: A.

17S Bc Kz (1995); Pl l. (2005) wy AR1 l fl cl f l

vl. S Ax 3 f l w l vl w y x c.

18 Oly w f c v c v y f

ccv y f cl : Icl (f 2010 2012) l xl Icl c-

cy f Sw (f 1997 1999).


24/32


I f cc, I WGI c w lv f v-

c. T c f vc v v

f vc (Ax 2). T WGI c f ll , wv.

T c c f ll ccy vc ccy c f w f vc l. I ,

v , l cc, f

vl, lv l, l c (Ax 3).

5. Cl

Ov c, E ly w cly l -

c v ly ly . T EU y f c

cly - w c f E. Y y-

clly z, c, xl f.

I v c f -

l w f . By c

f () l lcy cz , v l

c . W f f f , wc

y f , wc c v w c y-

clly xy f vc (ll ccy vc ccy)

l y c . T c f c flll

vc . By c, c v f c ll

vl fll l .

T cl ly f f c ccz y clly -

c vc qly. I l c cjc f f c

c w v vc, w f f c v-

c fc v. T f E c EU l y f

yclly c w cc qly vc ccy.

I fc vc, ly w w y ly. I

fy xly fc l f ll E c, EU. M l-

v xl w cll f xlcly. F c cl l l

l fc ly cc f c. F c, c y

F 2 3, fc vc v l f c. Y

vy f cl cc l y v cc vc

wll c j fc f .

G EU c c f f E . W fl -

l c f c y cl f 1990, f


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c cc. O cc c f W

Bl -Sv c, c c y c f E , x

c f Gx Bx E .

A f E , q w x lv

f l z. I EU ly f c l lc

ly, x cv c f cv ly f l z,

f (sui generis)? Al cv yc

l z, f y fl w

EU. A , f f y l z. I E, NATO

w c c ly

(Icl , fly, Fc), (w w M Ac Pl), v. T

Ccl f E v cl . O f E, Mc c . Sx

f 15 f Ecc Cy f W Afc S (ECOWAS) f W

Afc My Z 2000. ASEAN v c x w ASEAN

X ASEAN l X fl l cy lcy (.. S 2010: 53-55). By c,

l z c Oz f Ac S (OAS) Afc U (AU) v

c . OAS P Ov f , Afc

U f c lv f vc.

I cl, v f EU l ly l z l.

S f c f ll lvly f l , c

z v cv f l c w v fc

cc j f f l x lcy c lvl f

clz y l c. Cly, l c

f . W y f c w

cv f l z cly f l l l. B f

wl xl wy c v f f f c w l

fll . I , lly c w lvl f y lcy

c f z c cv f . T cl

c EU l z w ll

, qcly cv l , lcy c, lvl f v -lly c f . Oly cv

ly f l z wl llw f f cjc, wv.

Cv ly wl l l cv vy f vc z

l c f w c w f y wl

l c . W NATO Ccl f E EU ll-cc

vc , y ly l vc ccy. My -E

l z wll fllw . Alvly, y c-

w f vc ll fllw f w c. A y ,

vy cl cv l cv

IO c cllc.


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Ax

Appendix 1: M f G EU M, 2015

N: C c lc. Gycl f cc Tl 2. Rf c

w l c; f c w c.

Source: I J L f .


30/32


Appendix 2: Cc Pl w Alv M f G Gvc

WGI distance (baseline)

WGI (liberal democracy)

WGI (governance capacity)

Freedom Index

Polity

Transparency

0 1 2 3 4

Source: A.

Ax 2 c l WGI c c x w WGI c f l-

l ccy (vc ccly; l f lw) ly, WGI c f vc ccy (-

lcl ly, v cv, ly qly, c) ly, F Ix y

F H, Ply IV c, cy (Hlly l. 2014). T l

f c y cv. All lv c w f f WGI

c. Wl ly c cvl lvl l (WGI c f ll ccy).


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Appendix 3: Cc Pl w F R Cc

Source: A.

Ax 3 c cc f WGI c c l cc -

. T l P-W c w x-c S

xtreg fec, cl f l- vl, f y x c. A

F-y f y f . I , I f

w- (c-cl cy f vl), wc w

c w vc c c c

( w ). A f cc, I cy-cc l l

l. Flly, l c cly f l f cq w

f lv f

( ). N c f c c f lc y j c (w/ c c). T cc v

c cy v c f f cy f v xc f f

l f Gc (f) f Sw c (f). C

vy lly c y.


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T Kll-F - E A Ex

I R

T Kll-Fc (KFG) f lc y G Rc F (Dc Fc-c - DFG) 2008. A Rc Cll, v- cclly l v f vv cw ll f j c.

T Kll-Fc T Tfv Pw f E -v w c c. D f c, f 2008-2012, KFG f lcy w E U (EU), c . D c , f 2012-2016, KFG l fc f f ,lc, y E (cv l) ly f EU cv f xl c.I w c :

T EU Rl I L Ac, Afc,

Ml E A

E EU Rc f D

graded membership in the europen union: good governance and

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