28 GovernanceNow | April 16-30, 2013

Ashish Puntambekar

Our anger and agony over the Delhi gangrape will not pre-vent such events in future. For this we need to properly identify the reasons for a

rise in crimes and implement strategies in the short, medium and long terms at various levels to make women feel safe in India. Before we begin, it is important to understand the size of the problem.

Central problem and its magnitudeThe 2011 census data and employment statistics appear to indicate that overall crime in India is likely to rise by almost five times by 2018. Population data in the accompanying table indicates that young people in excess of 20 crore will join India’s working age group by 2018. This is in addition to the 11.2 crore al-ready unemployed according to the 2011 census. This is equivalent to two-thirds of the population of Europe entering the working age group in an environment where no new jobs are being created. Today maybe just 10–15 % of those 20 crore unemployed youngsters have hit

the street and we already have so much crime. Imagine what will happen when the balance 85%-plus arrive. This is not to say that a majority of them are poten-tial criminals, but the authentic numbers in the table and empirical correlations linking rising crime, especially theft, to unemployment from around the world, indeed make for a planners’ nightmare.

To rising unemployment, if we add a skewed sex ratio, the forecast gets ominous. India might well be on its way to becoming the most dangerous place on earth for women. We cannot blame police for this, they and the judiciary are dealing with mere symptoms of bad governance.

Need for a systemic response at various

levelsShort-term measures: Launch of large Employment Generation ProjectsThe truth is that a very large propor-tion of the problem of the rising crime in India can be traced directly to lack of directional inputs from the prime minister’s office and a non-serious plan-ning commission. The primary job of the latter is to detect trends very early and initiate timely and measured policy or project based responses. It is therefore worrying that it has not initiated a single, sustainable, large employment generat-ing scheme since 2004.

Lack of strategic thinking within the planning commission and the govern-ment shows up in the schemes that have been promoted. They started the MNREGS to create rural employment but it did not create any real sustainable ca-

pacity within the economy. The Aadhaar-based initiatives too do not and cannot create any genuine productive capacity or employment.

Given this, the justice JS Verma com-mittee’s report looks rather narrow and relatively unimportant in its scope.

A more pressing need is to know why the government has not initiated a single genuine employment generation project in eight years when it is aware of the unemployment projections.

Census data and education statistics indicate that in excess of 60% of students drop out of school after class 5 because there is a shortage of 5,00,000 second-ary schools across India. This indicates that approximately 60% of the 20 crore

No safety in job numbers

people politics policy performancePlanning Against Crime

The real reason behind the rise in crimes like the Delhi gangrape is the rise in unemployment, which will take gargantuan proportions by 2018. Here is what our planners should be doing very quickly

29www.GovernanceNow.com

young people who will arrive in the job market by 2018 can only be employed in agriculture and construction. Capacity creation projects in these sectors (for ex-ample, check dams in drought-hit areas) therefore need to be cleared on a fast-track basis to generate jobs fast.

The problem is getting bigger. Every single day that the government hesi-tates to clear projects, an astounding 3,65,000 people are being rendered job-less. The ‘asking rate’ is getting worse. There is therefore a clear need to create long-term employment for at least 10 crore people in a sustainable manner. Healthcare alone can employ over three crore, but the planning commission in a decision which reflects a serious lack of imagination has now clearly stated that it wants to reduce government involve-ment in the sector.

Some may argue that FDI in retail is aimed at creating jobs. That is simply not enough as by the governments own admission, this move will add just one crore new jobs. Project initiation and clearance therefore needs to be put on a fast track.

Medium- to long-term measures: Focus on building new secondary education capacityThe fundamental reason for the disinte-gration of value systems in Indian society and crime against women is a rapidly failing education system and especially the collapse of secondary education.

The data clearly indicates the true rea-sons for the rise in unemployment and crime:

1. Shortage of over five lakh secondary schools: Most children are dropping out of school after class 5, not because they want to but because there are no schools to go to.

2. Very poor teacher quality: Only 46% of teachers in India have studied beyond class 12. In

Bihar only 21% of teachers have stud-ied beyond class 10.

Thus, if any single factor were re-sponsible for low skill levels within

the working age group resulting in low employment and a galloping crime rate, it is the crippling shortages and teacher quality issues we have in our secondary school system.

The government’s response in the form of the RTE Act has not added any sustainable productive capacity within the economy. It is destroying even the private school system by making existing private schools financially unviable. The planning commission and the HRD min-istry have seriously damaged the school system due to a lack of understanding of fundamentals.

The current ‘literacy-centric’ system within the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyaan has lowered the status of the teacher and therefore the least qualified people have landed the most important jobs in the country – training our children. No amount of computerisation can replace the teacher who provides us with our values. Only a good teacher and enlight-ened parents can inculcate the concept of man–woman equality in a child’s mind. India led the world for thousands of years because it had a ‘teacher-centric’ system. So, if we provide excellent incen-tives for teachers, universal literacy will follow by itself.

Therefore, if the government is sincere about making India safe for women, it should initiate a large project to build more secondary schools and provide good incentives for teachers. Building more secondary schools will repair our rapidly disintegrating moral fabric and dramatically bring down crime against women. Necessary financing can be put in place in three months while adding 20 lakh new jobs.

The other alternative to initiating large social infrastructure projects by the gov-ernment and the

planning commission is to increase the size of the land-based internal security forces three to five times so that more than 31.2 crore jobless people can be effectively controlled. As this is clearly unviable, India needs to enter an era of megaprojects very quickly. n

Puntambekar, a corporate planner with a Fortune 500 company, is also project de-signer of the Indian Education Megaproject. Views expressed are personal.

Rising Crime and the role of the Planning Commission

Ashish Puntambekar The Nataraja Foundation, Mumbai

05th Jan ‘ 2013

Our extreme anger and agony over the Delhi rape case will not prevent such events in future. For this we need to properly identify the reasons for a rise in crime ( rape included ) and implement definite strategies in the short , medium and long term at various levels to make women feel safe in India. But before we even begin, It is important to first understand the size of the problem.

1. Central Problem and its Magnitude

2011 census data and employment statistics appear to indicate that overall crime in India is likely to rise by almost FIVE times by 2018 with a near 100 % probability of occurrence. In fact for independent planners like myself who monitor all kinds of numbers, the New Delhi gang rape and its brutality has not come as a surprise. Population data in the table below indicate that in excess of 200 Million young people will be joining the working age group in India by 2018. This is in addition to the 112 Million already un-employed according to the 2011 census. This is equivalent to two thirds of entire population of Europe entering the working age group in an environment where no new jobs are being created. Today maybe just 10 % – 15 % of those 200 Million unemployed young people have reached the street and we already have so much crime. Imagine what will happen when the balance 85 % + arrive. This is not to say that a majority of unemployed young people are potential criminals, but the authentic numbers in the table below and empirical correlations linking rising crime, especially theft to un-employment from around the world, indeed make for a planners nightmare. If to rising un-employment, we add a skewed sex ratio, the forecast gets ominous … India might well be on its way to becoming the most dangerous place on earth for women. We cannot blame the police for this, they and the Judiciary are just dealing with symptoms of bad governance.

The truth is that a very large proportion of the problem of the rising crime in India can be traced directly to lack of directional inputs from the prime minister’s office and a non-serious planning commission. The primary job of the latter is to detect trends very early and initiate timely and measured policy or project based responses.