TRANSCRIPT
Google Confidential and Proprietary 1
Bet on the Six Mega-Trends
Ted SouderHead of Industry, Travel
Google Confidential and Proprietary 2
Connect with Target1
Build Brand Equity2
Build Brand Demand3
Google Confidential and Proprietary 3
How We View Marketing
“Where should we place our fixed/limited bets to most likely achieve
the best outcome?”
Google Confidential and Proprietary 4
Who Are Your Marketing Prophets?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 5
Google Confidential and Proprietary 6
1. Bet on Moore’s Law
“The number of transistors on a chip
doubles about every two years.”
Source: www.intel.com
Google Confidential and Proprietary 7
Moore’s Law
-Information provided by intel.com
Google Confidential and Proprietary 8
Google Confidential and Proprietary 9
Customer probability cube
Estimating thelikelihood of purchase
Google Confidential and Proprietary 10
Google Confidential and Proprietary 11
How can you bet on the future of massive
computational power?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 12
2. Bet on Anderson’s Law
“Our culture and economy is increasingly shifting away from a focus on a relatively small number of "hits“…at the head of the demand curve and toward a huge number of niches in the tail.
In an era without constraints of physical shelf space and other bottlenecks of distribution, narrowly targeted goods and services can be as economically attractive as mainstream fare.”
--as found on longtail.com
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Google Confidential and Proprietary 14
Tap the Long Tail of Websites
There are now almost one billion
registered urls
--Internet Search Consortium
Google Confidential and Proprietary 15
The Long Tail of Google Search Queries
20% of our queries each day are ones we have never seen in the past three months
Google Confidential and Proprietary 16
The Long Tail of Google Search Queries
Google Confidential and Proprietary 17
How can you bet on the Long Tail,
not just the “Hits”?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 18
3. Bet on Galton’s Law
“In 1906, Francis Galton…came across a weight-judging contest at the West of England Fat Stock and Poultry Exhibition
…an ox was on display and…fair-goers could…fill in their names and their guesses of the animal's weight…The best guess received a prize
…To his surprise, when he averaged the guesses, the total came to 1197 pounds. After the ox had been slaughtered, it weighted 1198.”
James L. Howe on amazon.com
Google Confidential and Proprietary 19
Google Confidential and Proprietary 20
Google PageRank
Google Confidential and Proprietary 21
Crowd Influences Rank
Fuel Efficient CarsReviews & Ratings on Most Fuel Efficient Cars, Trucks, and SUV’s.
High Performance Cars Get more excitement w/your Next Car or Truck -- Get Price Quote.
Very Safe Cars Reviews & Ratings on all MakesGet Your Internet Price Quote Now.
1.9% Clicks
5.2% Clicks
3.1% Clicks
Google Confidential and Proprietary 22
Google Confidential and Proprietary 2323
Google Confidential and Proprietary 24
How can you bet on the “Wisdom of the Crowds?”
Google Confidential and Proprietary 25
4. Bet on Metcalf’s Law
“The value of a telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of users of the system (n2). .”
as found on wikipedia.com
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Google Confidential and Proprietary 29
How can you bet on the “Network Effect” ?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 30
5. Bet on Richard Stallman’s GNU Project
“The freedom to run the program, for any purpose (freedom 0).
The freedom to study how the program works, and adapt it to your needs (freedom 1). Access to the source code is a precondition for this.
The freedom to redistribute copies so you can help your neighbor (freedom 2).
The freedom to improve the program, and release your improvements to the public, so that the whole community benefits (freedom 3). Access to the source code is a precondition for this.”
as described by the Free SoftwareFoundation
Google Confidential and Proprietary 31
Radical Transparency
Google Confidential and Proprietary 32
Policy Transparency
Google Confidential and Proprietary 33
Google API’s
Google Confidential and Proprietary 34
Grammy Winner Maria Schneider
“Follow along with Maria…as she writes a new
commission…see sketches…hear clips from first rehearsal
to the final recording session.”
www.mariaschneider.com
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How can you bet on “Radical Transparency” ?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 37
6. Bet on John Gage’s Law
“The network is the computer.”
John Gage, Sun Microsystems
Google Confidential and Proprietary 38
Cloud Computing
Google Confidential and Proprietary 3939
Calendar
Docs & Spreadsheets
Groups
Google Confidential and Proprietary 40
The Computing Cloud: Your Travels… Online
Google Confidential and Proprietary 41
The Computing Cloud: Your Travels… Online
Google Confidential and Proprietary 42
How can you bet on “The Cloud” ?
Google Confidential and Proprietary 43
Wisdom of Crowds
Six Bets that Define the Web
3
Long Tail2
Super - Crunching1
Network Effect4
Radical Transparency 5
Cloud Computing6
