gonatas ferc presentation
TRANSCRIPT
8/6/2019 Gonatas Ferc Presentation
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WindIntegra,onandthe
CostofCarbon
DinosGonatasCPGAdvisors
(978)985-4309
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NoFederalCarbonPrice–StateRPS
PoliciesSetCarbonAgenda
RPS
NoRPS
• Renewablerequirementsdiffersubstan,ally
• Manyrequirephysicalpowerdeliverorin-stategenera,on
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StatesDrivingDiverseProjects
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StatesDrivingDiverseProjects
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WindIntegra,onStudies-2010
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WECC–NREL/GEStudy
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EasternInterconnect–NREL/Enernex
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SPPNYISOISO-NESubregionalStudies
GEGE
CRA
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3WaystoReduceCarbon
1.
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3WaystoReduceCarbon
1.
2.
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3WaystoReduceCarbon
1.
2.
3.
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CarbonReduc,onDependsonFuelDisplaced
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WindDisplacesGasinMeritDispatch
ISO-NEExample
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Wind gas-CC gas-CT Nuclear Hydro Coal Steam-oiland
other
T W h / y e a r
ISO-NEGenera2onbySource
Nowind
fullqueuebuild-out
beston-shore
aggressivebuild
ISO-NEstudyshowsgasreduc,on
• Largereduc,onincombinedcycledispatchforNewEnglandsubregion
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Wind gas-CC gas-CT Nuclear Hydro Coal Steam-oil
andother
Steam-gas
T W h / y r
NYISOGenera2onbySource
1275MW
wind
4250MW
wind
NYISOstudyshowsgasreduc,on
• Largereduc,onincombinedcycledispatchforNYISO
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Wind gas-CC gas-CT Nuclear Hydro Coal Steam-oiland
other
Steam-gas
T W h / y r
SPPGenera2onbySource
Basecase
10%wind
20%wind
SPPstudyshowscoal&gasreduc,on
• Balancedreduc,oninfossilgenera,on
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Wind gas-CC gas-CT Nuclear Hydro+
geothermal
Coal Steam-oil
andother
Steam-gas
T W h / y r
NRELEasternInterconnectGenera2onbySource
Businessasusual
"20%beston-shore"
30%wind
overallimpactoncoalinEasterninterconnec,onoverall
InEastern-wideStudyCoal Displaced
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Wind+solar gas-CC gas-CT Nuclear Hydro Coal Steam-oil
andother
Steam-gas
T W h / y r
WECCGenera2onbySource
Basecase
10%wind
20%wind
30%wand
solar
WECCshowsgasreduc,on
• Balancedreduc,oninfossilgenera,on
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CarbonReduc,onVariesbyRegion/Subregion
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Genera,oninNewEnglandandSPP
differsfromEasterninterconnect
• Differenceingenera,onfleetmightexplainsomeof
disparateimpactoncoalinEasternInterconnect
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500
1000
1500
2000
T W H
EasternInterconnect008
Genera2on
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coal gas nuclear
T W h
NewEngland008
genera2on
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coal gas nuclear
SPP008Genera2on
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BalancingAreaConstraintsForceCoal
downinMidwest/GreatPlains
• Spinningreserve(Gas-CCorCT)mustbackwindwithineach
balancingareatocomplywithcon,ngencylimits
• Where’sthere’slilegasgasCC’sareaddedlocallyandcoal
isdis laced butotherwise asisdis laced
NREL
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Renewableshavegreatestimpactingas–poorstates
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PowerPlantEconomicAssump,ons
Costofequity(ROE) 10%
leverage 50%
interestrate 7%
ProjectLife 25years
Aribute Wind GasC-C
Capital&
Installa,on
Costs
$1700/kW $1000/kW
Capacity
Revenue
0 2$/kW-mo
Transmission
Costs
5$/kW-mo 5$/kW-mo
Heatrate N/A 6800btu/kwh
Capacityfactor 25–45% 65%
GasPrice N/A 4–14$
CashFlowModelyielding
LevelizedCostofPower
Capacityfactorandgasprices
aremostsensi,vevariables
Not includingsubsidiesforwind
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On-ShoreWindvs.GasLevelizedCosts
• Highqualitywindunsubsidizedwindresourcecompeteswith
gas-firedgenera,onatpre-shaleprices
20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
4 6 8 10 12 14
WindNetCapacityFactor
L C O E $ / M W h
GasPrice$/mmbtu
GasCC
Wind
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20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
4 6 8 10 12 14
WindNetCapacityFactor
L C O E $ / M W
h
GasPrice$/mmbtu
WindvsGasLevelizedPowerCosts
GasCC
Wind
Off-shoreWind
Off-ShoreWindvs.GasLevelizedCosts
• Off-shorewind2.65×morecostlythanon-shore
• Similarcoststosolar(solarisdistributedwithlowerNCFmorerapidcostdeclinesduetotechadvances)
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CostofReducingCarbonEmissions
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AddWindWhereCoalPlantsAreand GasIsn’t
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Effec,veAc,onTiesWindResourcetoCoalStates
• Longhaullinesfromprimewindregionstoload
• Shorthaullinesfromdecentwindregionstoload
• Whicheverismosteconomic!(mayneedbothathigh
windpenetra,on)
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Conclusions
• Carbonimpactofrenewablesdependsonlocalgenera,onfleet
• Winddisplacingcoalisalmostascosteffec,veasgasdisplacing
coalcompe,,veathighergasprices
• Winddisplacinggasisnotcosteffec,ve.RPSstandardsingas-
poorstateshaveamuchbiggerimpactoncarbon
• Transmissionprojectstobringwindtogas-poorregionsmake
farmoresensethanthosebringingwindenergytothecoasts
Thankyou