gold charts and technical analysis 26 sep 2011
TRANSCRIPT
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26 SEP 2011
GOLD UPDATE
Many charts this weekend, much to consider because of last week's move.
There is a fairly tight grouping of support that I'll show first:
Previous charts have shown an increasing parabolic rise in supporting trend-
lines. The foremost line is one to watch, which is near 1578 this week
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: Gold has also produced a fairly consistent stair step in price from whichinvestors have risked 2-3% above the previous step. Another test of the last
step is likely underway. If investors are still in the mood to buy, they should be
willing to risk another 1-3% above the previous step, providing a risk window of
1575 t o 1622:
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I have shown the long standing support at the 150DMA for the past couple
years, which has now moved steadily upward to a support level of 1577:
Looking at the MT EW count Wave (4)green can be counted as an irregular
expanded flat which is filling in most of the 12-15% correction window for this
degree of correction, same for wave(2) green. The bottom of the 15% range is
at 16 25 ish
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There is also a serious danger to further MT upside that could become obvious
next week. If the Month of September closes below the Opening price in August
(1614.76), a very bearish Outside Key Reversal (OKR) will be printed. The same
occurred in 2008 which was followed by a 34% major correction for 7 months
from the 1032 top in March 2008. Such a move would be a major sell signal for
many investors. An intra-month fall through 1614.76 is acceptable this week,but the month MUST close above 1614.76, friday the 30th to avoid this bearish
signal. Here is the chart:
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The action on Friday did see an end of day bounce after filling in a very thinly
traded area between between 1632 and 1638, then finished the day back
above the sloping trend-line connecting the previous 2 ST bottoms. This shows
that there is some degree of buying interest at these levels
Also, Friday closed the day about $55 below the lower Bollinger Band (BB). This was the
second day of closing below the band. One more day is possible on Monday, then chances
are very good that price will rise back into the BBs again for at least a ST bounce. The
3/10/20 clearly in a bearish alignment and will remain that way with daily closes below the
10EMA (currently 1770):
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A weekly time fibo points to next week as a possible bottom. This would
coincide with options expiry, futures expiry, a new moon and a minor Bradley
turn date on the 26th:
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The daily time fibo also shows a potential turn early this week. A dead cat
bounce as a minimum. Daily fibo turns are given +/ - 1 day of window, end of
day Monday the 26th should close the window:
In A Nut Shell:
I suspect that Gold will see a bounce early next week back up into the BBs
1700ish from a support zone of 1614 to 1643. Then a retest of those lows
looks possible in the first or second week of October. A group of significant
support exists between 1575 and 1590. If this zone of support is broken below
1575, then a major top has likely formed, one which may take several months
for PoG to surmount after dropping even further (1200s would be possible).
This would also kill the MT EW count and prospects of a major parabolic run intothe first quarter of 2 012.
DISCLAIMER: CHARTS AND OPINION HERE IS FOREDUCATION AND NOT FOR TRADING, FOR
DETAILD DICLAIMER VISIT CHIEFSFORUM