gokarna jung thapa

Climate-change Impacts on Nepal’s Biodiversity and Forest Ecosystems

The case of the Chitwan Annapurna Landscape

Gokarna Jung Thapa

Eric Wikramanayake

Shant Raj Jnawali

Ramesh Adhikari

• The Eastern Himalayas are a region of global importance for biodiversity.

– Three Global 200 ecoregions • Eastern Himalayan Alpine

Meadows,

• Eastern Himalayan Broadleaf and Conifer Forests,

• Terai Duar Savannas and Grasslands

– Biodiversity Hotspot

– Endemic/Important Bird Areas

Eastern Himalaya

Climate Change

• IPCC 2007 predicts the Himalayas temperature will increase by 3 °C by 2050 and 5 °C by 2100.

• But more recent assessments predict greater increases

• Precipitation is expected to be greater, but erratic, and unpredictable

IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland,104 pp

Shrestha, U. B., S., Gautam, and K.S. Bawa. 2012. Widespread climate change in the Himalayas and associated changes in local ecosystems. PloS one 7, e36741 (2012).

Climate Change

Projected and predicted impacts of increased temperature and precipitation: • shifts, changes, and loss of forest type,

quality, and community

• species extinctions

• changes to ecosystem service delivery

• increased vulnerability to livelihoods, lives, agriculture, infrastructure…

• cascading, downstream impacts

Therefore, important to understand consequences to develop comprehensive, long-term conservation plans and strategies Xu, J. et al. 2009. The melting Himalayas: cascading effects of climate change on water, biodiversity, and livelihoods. Conservation Biology. 23:520–30.

Climate Change-Integrated Conservation Strategies

• Climate envelopes widely used to

predict future distribution of habitats

and species

• Use a combination of ecological and

biogeographical information, spatial

analyses, and climate models to get

some sense of expected changes and

integrate into conservation plans for

‘no-regrets’ strategies

• Issues: cannot accurately predict climate

trajectories and unable to accurately

represent complex ecosystem dynamics

• But, provide some guidance and use

with caution, constant monitoring.

• Chitwan Annapurna Landscape – North-south corridor for

migratory birds

– Red panda, clouded leopards, wild dogs, golden cats, musk deer

– Pheasants, tragopans

– hornbills

– Snow leopards

– Endemic plants

– water

Chitwan Annapurna Landscape

• To assess the impacts of global climate change trajectories on broad forest vegetation communities in the Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape

• Identify forest communities and habitat resilient to climate change impacts

• Propose conservation strategies, especially for climate sensitive, threatened and endangered, endemic, wide ranging species, umbrella species.

© James W. THORSELL / WWF-Canon

Objectives

• IPCC A2A GHG scenario

• Assessed the distribution of eight climate resilient forest habitat types using 2050 and 2080 time scales

• Used climate envelope analyses with 19 WorldClim bioclimatic variables in Maxent

• Terrain-based analyses using ruggedness index and solar radiation extension in ArcGIS 10 with DEM to identify microrefugia

Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change

Current Distribution of Forest Vegetation Types

Results : 2013 Forest Distribution

2050 Scenario for macrorefugia

• Temperate Broadleaf and Subalpine Conifer forests resilient, with large patches

• Subtropical forests will become more fragmented

• Hill Sal forests scattered patches

• Lowland Sal completely converted

• Chir Pine forests mostly converted

Results : 2050 scenario

2050 Scenario for macrorefugia and microrefugia


• Patches of Hill Sal forests in microrefugia

• Small patches of Lowland Sal and Subtropical Forests will remain in microrefugia


2080 Scenario for macrorefugia

• Subtropical forests will persist in CHAL as small scattered patches in Baglung, Kaski, Lanjung and parts of Makwanpir, Gulmi, and Parbat



2050 Scenario for macrorefugia and microrefugia

• Forests in microrefugia will provide connectivity in lower hills


Results : Impact on forest ecosystems

• Temperate Broadleaf and Subalpine Conifer forests more resilient to CC even under A2A GHG scenarios

• Large patches of Eastern Himalayan Temperate Broadleaf and Conifer Forests Global 200 ecoregions will remain and are important for irreplaceable eastern Himalayan biodiversity

• Forests in mid- and lower-hill forests vulnerable. These forests important to maintain species migrations, ecosystem services/e-flows, and as climate corridors

• Terai grasslands are maintained by short-term processes, but impacted by increased fires and floods expected with climate change.

Mammals Affected by Habitat Loss and Fragmentation

Terai grasslands • WIDE RANGING/CONNECTIVITY: Rhinoceros,

Tiger, Elephant, guar, sloth bear, Wild dogs

Subtropical zone forests • CONNECTIVITY/NO DISTURBANCE: Wild dogs,

Clouded leopard, black bear Temperate and conifer forest zones • HABITAT SPECIALISTS: red panda, musk deer,

Orange-bellied Himalayan Squirrel, Suncus nigrescens, Sikkim vole, smoke-bellied rat, yellow-necked mouse

• ENDEMIC: Himalayan field mouse (Apodemus gurkha)

Alpine zone • WIDE RANGING/CONNECTIVITY: snow leopard

Habitat Specialist Birds Affected by Changes in Vegetation

Terai grasslands • Swamp Francolin, Bengal Florican, Jerdon’s

Bushchat, Grey-crowned Prinia, Striated Grassbird, Jerdon’s Babbler, Slender-billed Babbler, Bristled Grassbird

Subtropical zone forests • Blyth’s Kingfisher, Blue-naped Pitta, Purple

Cochoa, Grey-sided Laughingthrush, Blue-winged Laughingthrush, Black-headed Shrike Babbler, Yellow-vented Warbler, Abbott’s Babbler, White-naped Yuhina, Broad-billed Warbler, Rufous-throated Wren Babbler, and Himalayan

Temperate and conifer forest zones • Satyr Tragopan, Yellow-rumped Honeyguide,

Gould’s Shortwing, Golden-breasted Fulvetta, Great Parrotbill, Brown Parrotbill, Fulvous Parrotbill

Alpine zone • Cheer Pheasant, Wood Snipe

Butterflies Restricted to Forest Types

Terai and lowland Forest zone • 30 uncommon and rare butterfly species Hill Sal Forest Zone • 4 rare butterfly species

Subtropical Forest zone • 24 rare butterfly species

Temperate Broadleaf Forest zones • 24 rare butterfly species

Mixed Broadleaf and Conifer Forest zone • 37 rare butterfly species

Subalpine Scrub zone • 6 rare butterfly species

Plants

• Climate change can cause changes in environmental conditions in several floral hotspots.

• 47 threatened plant species and 88 endemic species from the CHAL

• sites along Marsyandi, Madi, Seti, and Narayani river valleys identified as high species richness areas

Recommendations

• Secure and conserve the climate resistant forests in the upper and mid-hills conserved as climate refugia and micro-refugia for the habitat specialist species

• Maintain north-south connectivity maintained for migrations and as climate corridors.

• Conserve riparian corridors and upper watersheds to sustain ecosystem services.

• Implement a monitoring program for the less charismatic and cryptic species that play important roles in ecosystem functioning (e.g., pollinators, fruit and seed dispersers).

• Strategically restore and conserve areas vulnerable to natural disasters

• Develop climate-smart natural resource management strategies at landscape or basin scale, also address the proximate and current threats that exacerbate climate change related threats

• Train protected area staff and local community groups to assess and integrate climate change impacts into conservation planning and management

Disclaimer: This presentation is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of WWF (specify if includes partners) and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

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