Our mission is to provide a blueprint

Our aim is provide a beacon

AGENDA

• Climate Change – making the case– Climate Change Impacts - Global Context– Climate Change Impacts - Local Context

• GCNS Aim & Model– Understanding behaviour barriers– Understanding emissions areas– Finding Solutions - facilitation of

– Collective Ownership– Collaboration – Community led solutions

How BIG is the problem?

Despite 82% UK concern, only 4% public personal activity – Ipsos MORI 2007

7 years left to keep below global 2 °C warming – WWF 2008

Annual reduction targets need to be 8% to 9% - Tyndell Centre 2007

Global CO2e is still rising exponentially – IPCC 2008

Even if CO2 emissions stopped tomorrow, we are committed to 1.4 degrees of average global warming

Some Very Basic Science …

• Incoming shortwave solar radiation warms the earth, which then emits long wave radiation.

• Certain gases absorb this energy, and re-emit it back to earth.

• This is the greenhouse effect which is causing global warming and climate change

Where are global temperatures heading?

(Follow the green line on the right!)

1ºC global warming IMPACTS

X

This map of mountain glacier mass balance changes since 1970 shows thinning in yellow

and red, and thickening in blue.

2ºC, 2003 Heat Wave = ‘the norm’

2ºC, Sea Level Rise

2ºC, Ocean Acidification

2ºC global warming - IMPACTS

While two degrees of warming will be survivable for most developed country humans, 40% of all other species (plant & animal) alive today may be driven to extinction as climate

change wipes out their habitat.

And we are getting close to irreversible “tipping points” through positive feedbacks

3ºC Amazon Rain Forest Destruction

3ºC Soil Microbes release CO2 under stress

3ºC: the ‘tipping point’

Combined, these 2 events will create a further 1.5ºC global temp rise.

• Increasing areas of planet uninhabitable by drought and heat

• Hurricanes increase to Category Six• World food supplies critically endangered• Hundreds of millions of refugees will move towards the

mid-latitudes.

4ºC, Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse = 5m sea level rise

4ºC, Methane from Permafrost melt

4ºC, Ice Free Arctic Ocean

5ºC global warming - IMPACTS

To understand the implications of 5 ºC of warming, we need to go back 55 million years ago when the Earth experienced a

sudden and dramatic global warming.

Climate Change Impacts on Scotland

Species invasion – e.g. ticks & mosquitoes

Flooding, increased frequency, increased intensity

Food price increases, changing diets

PHYSICAL / LAND

HUMAN IMPACTS

Fuel price increases, later fuel shortages

Influx global climate change refugees

Coastal erosion

Possible war

Growing gap between rich and poor with more severe impacts

What are the ripple effect impacts of each of these?

The inspiration behind going carbon neutral Stirling

tipping a nation…(without legislation)

…into immediate, mass, multi-faceted voluntary behaviour change

So what was the task exactly?

In order to effect ….

Meaningful

&

Widespread

Collectively

owned

Mutually

supportive

Evaluated

Voluntary personal carbon

reduction …that is….

We need to understand…

Key Elements of GCNS

1) The areas of emission in our personal carbon footprint

12 tonnes

11 tonnes10 tonnes

9 tonnes

Emissions

8 tonnes

CO2

5 tonnes

Year

4 tonnes

Per

3 tonnes2 tonnes

Head

1 tonne

Per

7 tonnes

Scottish

6 tonnes

Annual

For global climate change to have a hope of remaining under control, what should our

emissions be?

2007. World population = 6 billion

2050. World population = 9 billion

1 tonnePer year=

….by 2035

1.5 tonnes

FOOD

2 tonnesRECREATION

& LEISURE

1.5 tonnesHOUSEHOLDELECTRICITY

2.5 tonnes

HEATING SPACE

1 tonne

CLOTHING

0.5 tonne

1 tonne

COMMUTING

0.8 tonne

AVIATION

1.2 tonnes

HYGIENE

EDUCATION

Key Elements of GCNS

1) Understand emissions areas & define targets

2) Understand behavioural change barriers

Because that defines what solutions may look like

And the order in which they might be taken up

Plenty of advice…but no support =

attitude-behaviour gap

Behaviour barrier, 1 of 6

“whilst we know we should probably make some changes to the way we do things, we are always rushing around and don’t

remember. We need reminders in the right place, and supportive help that goes right through, in practical terms, to the bitter end…

without hassle and cost!”

We don’t act because:

Behaviour barrier, 2 of 6

Social Norms

“it’s not socially normal to carry out personal carbon budgeting…I’ll look like a freak (and no-one will like me!)”

We don’t act because:

No social norms1 tonne

COMMUTING

It’s not socially normal to say (to your peers and employer):

x“Moving to new offices?”So I need to…

Aspirations and desires are pro high carbon.

Behaviour barrier, 3 of 6

“advertising tells us, everywhere we look, that the newness and amount of our ‘stuff’ defines who we are and how successful we are. People will wonder about my

competence if I don’t demonstrate it in stuff, and this will make me unhappy. It’s hard to go against the grain…”

We don’t act because:

Skegness

The Caribbean

Toyota Land cruiser

Aspirational (fun, cooler, smarter, affluent)

Non-aspirational (routine, less cool, banal, ‘poorer’)

Bus

HIGHER CARBONLOWER CARBON

Your own parking space

XSMART Car

Behaviour barrier, 4 of 6

Complexity & number of messages

“carbon reduction involves an enormous quantity, variety and complexity of action, we don’t know what to believe, or what to

do, so we end up doing nothing”

We don’t act because:

Behaviour barrier, 5 of 6

Ease of Action

“currently, it’s hard to be a carbon cutter. We need lower carbon goods and services to be easier to find than other

products and services, preferable to use, and better priced”

We don’t act because:

Hybrid Cars

Bio-fuels

Slower road speed limits

Tele-communications

Electric Fleet

Car sharing

Bus

Trains

Trams

Hi-Speed trains

Cycling

SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT SOLUTIONS

THINGS WE’VE HEARD…PERCEPTIONS?

Walking

Fragmented Service

Non-recyclable so higher lifecycle footprint

Global Famine

Not aspirational. Slow

Same CO2 as planes

Late More ExpensiveCrowded

Not ubiquitous, infringes on personal flexibility

Lower comparative mileage performance

No infrastructure Mileage Issues

Expensive, ? quality, not ubiquitous, not as good as face to face

Huge set up carbon footprint

Impossible to enforce. Slowing traffic increases CO2. Hugely unpopular

Need to have the time

Not safe Thefts

Behaviour barrier, final one

Conflicting messaging & non-joined up thinking

“currently, there is not enough evidence of ‘joined up thinking’ and worse, a lot of ‘conflicting messaging’ by government,

local authorities, media & business…if they can’t be bothered to get it right, why should I?!”

We don’t act because:

Key Elements of GCNS

3) Finding Solutions. Facilitation of

•Collective Ownership

• Collaboration

•Community led solutions

2) Understanding emissions areas & defining targets

1) Understanding behavioural change barriers

Partners…

Communities…all types

Local Businesses

Stirling Council

Local Media

Community Planning Partnerships

How do we engage our partners?

STEP 1We contact them throughrecognised ambassadors

STEP 2We meet them at their

regular group meeting (ease of action)

STEP 3We show them the effects of climate change..

STEP 4..and ask if they will say ‘YES’! to become part of the Stirling critical mass carbon

cutting project

1°

2°

STEP 6 …with whom we create the group’s

FIRST YEAR CARBON CUTTERS PLAN

4°

5°

6°

STEP 7We give up to 6 support sessions

throughout the year, overcoming obstacles collectively and collaboratively.

3°

STEP 5 We identify the group’s First Year Activator…

At the end of year one, the group is invited to repeat the

process for a second and third year….

3 year Community Carbon Cutting Plan

Yrs 1 - 3 Smart n’ easy (brain & body trainers)

Yrs 2 & 3: Infrastructural changes

Immediate ease of action

Large degree of normality

YRS 2 & 3Carbon Crushers

Perceived new ‘desire’ , new aspirations & norms

Reduction in conflicting messages

More demand = greater ease of action

Creates ease of action

Engenders social norm

Demonstrates joined up thinking

ATTITUDE CLOSED BEHAVIOUR

+ Settlement Open Days

Plenty of advice…but no support =

attitude-behaviour gap

Behaviour barrier, 1 of 6

Each GCNS community group acts as its own weekly support

infrastructure, through asking ‘who remembered?’. We remind,

encourage, cajole and compete with each other, to remember to carry

out our carbon cutting action. By talking to each other, we start to

understand our local infrastructural needs. These are then coordinated

through the GCNS team to local delivery partners.

Behaviour barrier, 2 of 6

Social Norms

By asking each engaged community group to talk about their carbon

cutting on a weekly basis, GCNS starts to normalise the idea of day

to day carbon reduction. In addition, we will start to see carbon

cutting in our local shops, in our local newspapers, hear about it on

our local radio…everywhere we go in Stirling in fact, we will see that

others are part of this critical mass project

Aspirations and desires are pro high carbon.

Behaviour barrier, 3 of 6

GCNS will explain to businesses that over the next 4 years, the

programme will be creating carbon savvy customers – who will

appreciate low carbon offers, and horrified by hi-carbon offers! By

engaging business staff communities, hi-carb offers will be swiftly

spotted internally and interchanged for localised low carb offers.

Behaviour barrier, 4 of 6

Complexity & number of messages

GCNS puts the carbon cutter plan into being – one action per week that

everyone takes, and everyone is reminded to take. GCNS will ask

participants “what language worked for this activity?” “what reminder

mechanism would work better?” ”How else can we help you make

this happen?” We will record what tools and practices work for the

varying groups, and improve our delivery with this feedback.

Behaviour barrier, 5 of 6

Ease of Action

GCNS will work with GCNS communities, bringing them together in

annual open days, in order to discover mutual needs that will aid

further carbon cutting. These ‘infrastructural demands’ will be

assessed for their carbon validity, and then taken to the ‘delivery

community’ such as the council & businesses.

Behaviour barrier, final one

Conflicting messaging & non-joined up thinking

GCNS works with businesses and public bodies to help them get

their own houses in order. Then, with their staff engaged as

‘communities’ we look at businesses’ external activity and

messaging, as perceived by the public, and realign it to our area’s

low carb aspirations.

What will businesses do?

INTERNAL activity• Discover and report scope 1 and 2 emissions

(internal fossil fuels burnt and electricity purchased). • Start to demand knowledge on, and reduction of

scope 3 emissions (indirect emissions that are a consequence of a company's activities, but which arise from sources that are owned or controlled by others).

• Provide a Lifecycle carbon footprint on top services / products

• Create an emissions reduction target in line with the dictates of science

• Staff engagement, as communitiesTalk about it talk about it talk about it talk about t talk about it talk about it….

What will businesses do?

EXTERNAL Activity• Create social norms – for consumers and other

businesses• Demonstrate joined-up thinking • Re-adjust aspirations & desires • Ensure non-conflicting messaging • Ensure ultimate ease of action

Key Elements of GCNS

3) Finding Solutions. Facilitation of

•Collective Ownership

• Collaboration

•Community led solutions

2) Understanding emissions areas & defining targets

1) Understanding behavioural change barriers

Partners…

Communities…all types

Local Businesses

Stirling Council

Local Media

Community Planning Partnerships

Carbon Cutter Plans for staff

Internal CR activity

External collaboration

Carbon Cutter Plans

Open days

Keeping it alive with Positive messaging

NOW 2035

12 tonnes

6 tonnes

1 tonne

GCNS Carbon Descent Model, the trajectory and what it looks like….

Getting started, with smart and easy carbon brain and body trainers

Making real progress with effective carbon crushers

With the collaboration of businesses & the council to help us with infrastructural

changes…

So that cutting more carbs becomes easy again

• Big Lottery Fund Supporting 21st Century Life programme: £500,000

• The Scottish Government Greener Directorate: £800,000

• WWF-Scotland and Stirling Council Housing Department: £64,000

• There might be funding in years 2 to 4 from LEADER

Funding, where and how much

And with that we pay for…

• Staff team of 8 for 4 years;• Programme manager• Business engagement• Carbon coach• 3 community engagement and support• Media & communications• Administration

Questions…