Goal

To utilize the ability to predict climate variability on the scale of months to a year to improve management and decision making in respect to crop production at local, regional, and national scales

CLIMAG: CLIMATE AND AGRICULTURE

Objectives •To enhance the interface between meteorological, agricultural, and social science communities

•To develop the capacity, in tropical regions, for the integrated use of climate and agricultural modeling leading to improved techniques for forecasting yield

•To establish the forecasting needs of local, regional, and national decision-makers leading to an evaluation of ways of using such information to improve decision-making in crop production

Major Research Elements•Climate Predictions and Agronomic data collection

•Crop Modelling and Yield Predictions

•Management Considerations and Impact Assessment

CLIMAG: CLIMATE AND AGRICULTURE

Upscaling

LocalManagement

Decisions

RegionalManagement

Decisions

RegionalYield Data

RegionalSoil &

Crop Data

Local Soil& Crop Data

RegionalCrop Yield Predictions

LocalCrop Yield Predictions

LocalMechanistic

Crop Modelling

RegionalAgricultural

ImpactAssessment

LocalAgricultural

ImpactAssessment

RegionalYield

Surveys

Crop, Soil & Socio-economicSurveys

Down scaling

Downscaling

GCMs

ArchiveData

PredictedRegional

Weather Data

PredictedLocal

Weather Data

Local Tactical

ManagementOptions

CLIMATEPREDICTIONS &

AGRONOMIC DATA

COLLECTION

CROP MODELLING& YIELD

PREDICTIONS

MANAGEMENTCONSIDERATIONS

& IMPACT ASSESSMENT

Large Scale Small Scale

RegionalEmpirical/StatisticalModelling

RegionalMechanistic

Crop Modelling

CLIMAGCLIMAG

Terms of Reference

Guide START’s CLIMAG project, including:

•Implement regional “demonstration” projects and pilot projects, undertake capacity building activities

•Identify strategic research challenges that should be taken up by START’s program sponsors and their core projects

Foster partnership between

•Various stakeholder communities

•Resource agencies

CLIMAG Steering Group

Chair: Hartmut GrasslMembers: J. Hansen, M.V.K. Sivakumar, S. Gadgil, P. Gregory, IHDP Rep. (tbd)

Significant progress on all terms of Reference…

CLIMAG South Asian Demonstration CLIMAG South Asian Demonstration ProjectProject

Project Partners:Project Partners: APSRU/CSIRO, AustraliaAPSRU/CSIRO, Australia Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, IndiaIndian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, IndiaTamil Nadu Agricultural University, India Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, IndiaIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India Bogor Agricultural University, IndonesiaBogor Agricultural University, Indonesia Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, PakistanPakistan Agricultural Research Council, Pakistan International Research Institute for Climate International Research Institute for Climate

Prediction, USAPrediction, USA Asia-Pacific NetworkAsia-Pacific Network NOAANOAA

Project Partners:Mali Meteorological Service

Institute of Rural Economic Development (Mali)

International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT-Mali)

African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD-Niger)

Agricultural, Hydrological, and Meteorological Programme (AGRHYMET-Niger)

Institute of Agrometeorology and Environmental Analysis for Agriculture (Italy)

Wageningen University (The Netherlands)

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (USA)

CLIMAG West Africa Demonstration CLIMAG West Africa Demonstration ProjectProject

PLANNING WORKSHOPS (Bogor and Benin, 1997)

CLIMAG TASK GROUP (1997/99)

INTERNATIONAL CLIMAG WORKSHOP (Geneva, 9/99)

• Proceedings volume published (01/01)

START FELLOWSHIP AND GUEST LECTURSHIP AWARDS

• Fellows from India and Pakistan nodes of CLIMAG South Asia project trained at

DPI/APSRU (Australia) in systems modeling approaches

• Fellows from Meteo Mali, Institute for Rural Economics and ACMAD, trained at Universityof EastAnglia, the Applied Meteorology Foundation, Florence and Wagingen

University.

CLIMAG PROJECT WORKSHOPS

• South Asian Project Training Workshop on Applied Agricultural Systems Analysis (11/00)

• South Asian Project Team members participate in START/APN/NOAA East-West Center Training Course on Climate Variability and Climate (2/01)

• CLIMAG West Africa Project initiation meeting, with the support of EC/ENRICH (4/01)

ADVANCED TRAINING INSTITUTE AND FOLLOW-UP RESEARCH AWARDS

• Host Institute Partner: IRI / Funded by: Packard Foundation / Date: 8 July - 26 July, 2002

CLIMAGTo DateCLIMAGCLIMAGTo DateTo Date

INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON REDUCING VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE &FORESTRY TO CLIMATE VARIABLITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

• Jointly Supported by: WMO, START, FAO, UNEP, ICRISAT, ICARDA, ICRAF, and CTA

• Organized by: M.V.K. Sivakumar

• Date/Venue: 7-9 October 2002/Ljubliana, Slovenia

CLIMAG WEST AFRICA EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS EXPERT MEETING

• Organized by: G. Maracchi

• Date/Venue: September 2002/Florence, Italy

MONSOON ENVIRONMENTS: AGRICULTURAL AND HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS OFSEASONAL VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

• Jointly Supported by: ICTP, EU PROMISE, and START

• Organized by: J. Slingo and P. Gregory

• Date/Venue: March 2003/Trieste, Italy

ADVANCED TRAINING INSTITUTE SYNTHESIS WORKSHOP

• Organized by: START and IRI

• Date/Venue: May 2005/WMO, Geneva

CLIMAG To Date (continued)CLIMAG To Date (continued)

A Challenge for the ESSP family..,

A fundamental science question is whether the impacts of climate variability on regional crop production are best estimated by:

(a) Downscaling climate models, running crop models, and scaling-up the results to regional scales

Or

(b) Developing regional crop models which can interface directly with large scale climate model-based information (including both statistical and mechanistic modeling approaches)

A challenge to us all…Climate is one of the many factors that affect farming systems!

Other related developments:Other related developments:

IRI – a mature organizationIRI – a mature organizationWMO-CLIPSWMO-CLIPSSTART: AIACC (several projects); Africa grants (several)START: AIACC (several projects); Africa grants (several)NOAA OGP support of projectsNOAA OGP support of projectsDevelopment of GECaFS/ESSPDevelopment of GECaFS/ESSPCGIAR: Challenges programCGIAR: Challenges programWB: Ag S&T AssessmentWB: Ag S&T AssessmentIFPRI: IFPRI: ……..

INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON CLIMATEPREDICTION AND AGRICULTURE:

ADVANCES AND CHALLENGES(WMO, Geneva, 11 to 13 May 2005)

Goal

To review advances in seasonal climate predictions and theirapplications for management and decision-making inagriculture over the last 5 years, and identify challenges tobe addressed in the next 5 to 10 years to further enhanceoperational applications of climate predictions inagriculture in developing countries

EXPECTATIONS FROM THIS WORKSHOP…

(1) Review of the State-of-knowledge and our ability to effectively use this knowledge

(2) Special Issue of “XXXXX Journal”

(3) Recommendations for the way forward…for further consideration by the C&D Meeting (Stockholm, May 2005)

(4) Report/Workshop proceedings to Sponsors

THANK YOU:WMO

ALL SPONSORS

WORKSHOP DIRECTORS

ALL PARTICIPANTS