Department of Economic and Social Affairs

Progress towards the Millennium Development Goals,1990-2003

Goal 8 - Develop a global partnership for developmentThe Millennium Declaration embodies partnership among developed and developing countries. Goal 8 addresses ways in which developed countries can assist developing countries to achieve the other seven goals. It calls for measures to ensure debt sustainability in the long term, an open, equitable, rule-based, predictable and non-discriminatory multilateral trading and financial system, and measures to address the special needs of least developed, landlocked and small island developing States.

Delivery on the new pledges to increase official development assistance (ODA) at the Monterrey Conference on Financing for Development will reverse the decline of development aid of the 1990s, with more assistance focussed on poverty reduction, education and health. Under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC), 27 countries are benefiting from a total of $51 billion of debt relief1, substantially reducing the payments required to service their debt. Maintaining these and other countries’ debt at sustainable levels will require further debt relief and sound debt management policies by the countries themselves.

Even though they were reduced in the 1990s, Tariff protection and extensive trade distortions, particularly tariff escalation based on increased value added and high levels of agricultural support by developed countries, continue to pose obstacles to development, especially for the least developed countries. The multilateral trade negotiations, which stalled in Cancún in September 2003, must be restarted in order to achieve a non-discriminatory international trading system.

A meaningful partnership between rich and poor countries also needs to address developing countries’ access to technology, medicines and jobs for their growing populations. Goal 8 therefore includes indicators that monitor factors as diverse as Internet users and youth unemployment.

How the indicators are calculated Country data

Official development assistance The Monterrey Conference on Financing for Development in 2002 came at a critical time for development assistance. In 1970, the United Nations General Assembly proposed a target for ODA of 0.7 per cent of donors’ national income.2 For many years afterwards, the collective effort of members of OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC) hovered around half this level, but during the 1990s it fell by about one-third, reaching an all time low of 0.22 per cent in 2000–2001 (see figure 8). Within this total, aid to least developed countries fell from about 0.09 per cent of donors’ national income a decade ago to about 0.05 per cent in 2001.

1 The total figure of $51 billion excludes $800 million committed to Côte d’Ivoire but stalled due to hostilities in the country.

Indicators of official development assistanceProvision by donor countries of official development assistance is monitored on the basis of the following indicators: the total ODA to all developing countries as percentage of donors’ national income, the ODA to least developed countries as a percentage of donors’ national income, the share of ODA that is allocated to basic social services and the share of ODA that is untied.

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In 2002, however, ODA rose by 5 per cent in real terms, to $57 billion in current prices, as donors started to deliver on commitments made in connection with the Monterrey Conference. The ratio of ODA to donors’ national income rose to 0.23 per cent in 2002 and full delivery of Monterrey-related commitments should result in an increase to 0.26 per cent of donors’ national income by 2006.

More recent announcements, such as pledges to boost AIDS funding, also reflect renewed international commitment to meet the Millennium Declaration targets. Nevertheless, total ODA will still be well short of the amount estimated to be required to ensure that the Millennium Development Goals are achieved.

Proportion of ODA to basic social servicesThe World Summit on Social Development at Copenhagen in 1995 proposed a mutual commitment between interested developed and developing country partners to allocate, on average, 20 per cent of ODA and 20 per cent of the national budget, respectively, to basic social programmes such as basic education, health, population and poverty-focused water and sanitation projects. The share of bilateral, sector-allocable aid directed towards these basic social services rose from around 9 per cent in 1996/97, when comparable statistics began, to 12 per cent in 1998/99, and to almost 15 per cent in 2000/01.3

Proportion of bilateral ODA that is untiedTying aid to procurement from suppliers in the donor country reduces cost-effectiveness and flexibility in implementation. Recognising this, members of OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC) have raised the share of their aid that is untied from about 65 per cent to about 80 per cent over the past decade.4

However, the share of untied aid to

Chart 12. In 2002 only five countries reached the overall level of 0.7 per cent of their GNI, for official development assistance Net ODA as percentage of OECD/DAC donors' gross national incomeDenmark 0.96Norway 0.91Netherlands 0.82Luxembourg 0.78Sweden 0.74Belgium 0.42Ireland 0.41France 0.36Finland 0.35Switzerland 0.32United Kingdom 0.30Canada 0.28Germany 0.27Australia 0.25Spain 0.25Portugal 0.24Austria 0.23Japan 0.23New Zealand 0.23Greece 0.22Italy 0.20United States 0.12Source: United Nations Statistics Division, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on data provided by OECD.

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Figure 8. ODA, total and to LDCs, as percentage of OECD/DAC donors' GNI, 1990-2002

0.00

0.050.10

0.15

0.20

0.250.30

0.35

0.40

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on data provided by OECD.

All developingcountriesLDCs

Figure 9. Percentage of untied bilateral ODA of OECD/DAC, 1990-2001

63.5

82.278.8

81.4

65.9

67.6

76.5

85.883.2

81.1

77.779.1

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01

Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on data provided by OECD.

the least developed countries has not risen at the same rate. In 2001, the DAC adopted a “Recommendation on Untying Aid to the least developed countries” intended to spur progress in this area.5

Addressing the special needs of landlocked countries and small island developing States

Landlocked developing countries present special challenges. They are often far from markets and the cost of exporting goods is higher than for other countries. Most have recorded disappointing economic results. Of the 24 landlocked developing countries for which data are available, 15 recorded falls in real per capita income over the 1990s.

Small island developing States also face specific constraints. They have a narrow resource base and high costs for energy, small domestic markets and heavy dependence on a few external and remote markets. They also have little resilience to cope with natural disasters or resources to protect fragile natural environments.

Despite their needs, aid to landlocked countries as a percentage of their national income has stayed at around 6 per cent of their GNI, equivalent to $7.7 billion in 2001, after rising slightly at the beginning of the 1990s (see figure 10). Some 35 per cent of bilateral aid to these countries is being targeted at social services, while 25 per cent is for economic infrastructure and production, and over 20 per cent for budgetary support and debt relief.

ODA received by SIDS as a percentage of their GNI fell between 1990 and 2001, from 2.6 per cent to 0.9 per cent, or $1.7 billion in 2001 (see figure 11). However, the SIDS grouping includes countries with very diverse incomes per capita (from least developed countries to high-income countries) and thus with diverse ODA/GNI ratios; within the group, a number of SIDS now need less aid, having successfully diversified their economies by developing tourism, offshore banking, or clothing or other light industry.

Currently, nearly 40 per cent of bilateral aid to SIDS goes to social services, a further 25 per cent to economic infrastructure and production and 20 per cent to programme/budgetary support. Environmental challenges have arisen in some SIDS as a result of the rapid development of infrastructure and population growth in fragile ecosystems. Tackling these problems will require innovation in aid instruments.

Indicators on development assistance to landlocked countries and small island developing StatesProgress made to address the special needs of landlocked developing countries and small islands developing States are assessed on the basis of the ODA received as a percentage of the GNI.

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Figure 10. ODA received by landlocked countries as percentage of their GNI*, 1990-2001

6.0

7.3

9.3

6.5

7.77.1

6.4

6.0 6.4

9.2

6.46.2

5

6

7

8

9

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'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01

* Excludes Afghanistan for which GNI is not available.

Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on data provided by Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Development .Assistance Committee.

Figure 11. Official development assistance to small island developing Statesa as proportion of their GNI, 1990-2001

Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on data provided by Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.a Estimates are based on available data for the following SIDS: least developed: Cape Verde, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Kiribati, Maldives, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu. middle income: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahrain, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Fiji, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Micronesia Fed. States, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Seychelles, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago. high income: Bahamas, Cyprus, Malta, Singapore. Excludes United States Virgin Islands which are not eligible for ODA, and Aruba, Cook Islands, Cuba, Nauru, Netherlands Antilles, Niue, Tokelau, Tuvalu, for which GNI data are not available.b The sharp increase of the ODA/GNI ratio in 1994 and 1995 is due to emergency and governance assistance provided to Haiti in the wake of Hurricane Gordon.

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Small island developing States

1.3

1.5

2.01.82.0

2.6

1.5 1.11.3 0.9

1.8

0.9

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'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01

Least developed small island developing Statesb

14.2

8.8

27.5

9.714.99.9

17.315.3

15.0

17.3

27.9

17.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01

Middle income small island developing States

2.3

1.5

3.1

1.52.7

1.82.5

4.8

3.33.3 3.1 2.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01

High income small island developing States

0.08

0.050.05

0.07

0.06

0.09

0.160.15

0.17

0.13 0.14

0.10

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01

Market accessTrade promises jobs and income, but these will not materialize if the rules are biased and developing countries are unable to compete because of developed countries’ domestic subsidies and barriers to trade on the one hand, while they are forced to open their own goods and services markets to corporations based in developed countries on the other hand. For the least developed countries their total exports in 2001 represented less than 1 per cent of the value of the exports of developed countries: $41 billion compared with $4,908 billion.6

There have, nevertheless, been some improvements in recent years. The initiatives in 2001 by the world’s two largest markets, the European Union’s ‘Everything but Arms’ arrangement for the LDCs and the United States ‘African Growth and Opportunities Act’, provided increased trading opportunities for the poorest countries. Such countries as Australia, Canada, Japan, Norway and Switzerland have also opened up their markets to goods from least developed countries.

The Doha round of multilateral trade talks, under the aegis of the World Trade Organization, was promoted as a development round because it was expected to deliver long-sought trade reforms that would help developing countries to export their goods to richer nations, thereby spurring their economic growth. These efforts were seriously compromised by the collapse of negotiations at Cancún in September 2003.

The goal of improving market access is monitored through four indicators reflecting the level and structure of tariffs imposed on exports from developing countries and the domestic subsidies provided by developed countries. Both sets of policies distort trade and restrict growth in developing countries.

Duty free accessThe share of exports from developing countries, excluding arms and oil, that entered developed countries free of duty rose to 66 per cent in 2001 from 57 per cent in 1996, with some fluctuations in 1997-1998 (see table 27). However, there was no increase in the value of duty free imports into developed countries from LDCs. This reflects a shift in LDC exports to products and/or export markets that are not duty free. The trade values show that there was no increase in the value of duty free imports into developed countries from LDCs but there is a significant increase in the dutiable imports.

Table 27. Duty-free imports into developed countries from developing countries and LDCs, 1996-2001 (percentage of imports)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001Excluding armsDeveloping countries 54.8 50.5 49.9 57.2 62.8 65.7Least developed countries 71.5 67.2 77.7 77.1 75.4 75.3

Excluding arms and oilDeveloping countries 56.8 51.5 49.9 58.1 65.1 66.0Least developed countries 81.1 75.5 75.0 73.6 70.5 69.1Source: Calculations based on World Trade Organization Integrated Data Base complemented by International Trade Centre (Market Access Map) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (TRAINS database).

Indicators on market accessInternational efforts made to remove barriers to trade from developing countries are monitored on the basis of the share of exports from developing and from the least developed countries that enter developed countries free of duty and on the basis of trends in average tariffs imposed on exports from developing countries of agricultural products, textiles and clothing.

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Tariffs on agriculture, textiles and clothingTariffs imposed by developed countries on exports of agricultural products from developing countries remained largely unchanged over the period 1996-2001 but they decreased for the sub-group of least developed countries (see table 28). For textiles and clothing, there was a slow downward trend in average tariffs for both developing countries in aggregate and the subset of least developed countries.

One important aspect of tariff rates for developing countries and LDCs is the tariff differential between textiles and clothing. Tariff rates applied by developed countries on clothing are 50 to 90 per cent higher than those applied on textiles. This extra tariff on processed goods compared with raw materials acts as a disincentive for developing countries to diversify their economies away from commodity production and towards more processed, higher-value goods. Table 28. Average tariffs applied in developed countries on imports of agricultural goods, textiles and clothing from developing countries and LDCs, 1996-2001 (percentage)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Agricultural goodsDeveloping countries 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.0 10.6 10.1 Least developed countries

6.3 6.0 5.6 5.8 5.3 3.2

TextilesDeveloping countries 7.6 7.5 6.9 6.8 7.0 6.7 Least developed countries

5.0 5.0 5.0 4.4 4.7 4.5

ClothingDeveloping countries 12.0 12.0 10.3 11.1 11.5 10.8 Least developed countries

9.1 9.1 9.0 8.4 8.6 8.5 Source: Calculations based on World Trade Organization Integrated Data Base complemented by International Trade Centre (Market Access Map) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (TRAINS database).Note: Average tariffs are obtained by weighting the duties on imports from developing and least developed countries by the volume of imports in 1999-2001 for each developed market and then aggregating using each developed market’s trade share.

Support and protection for domestic agriculture in developed countries

Developing countries face another obstacle in exporting into developed country markets: domestic subsidies in these countries. Agricultural subsidies are particularly injurious to developing countries’ trade since agricultural products represent a large part of their exports.

Since 1990 there has been a modest downward trend in agricultural support by OECD countries, as measured by OECD’s total support estimates (TSE) as a percentage of GDP (see figure 12).7 The higher ratio of TSE to GDP in the European Union reflects not only the consistently higher levels of support and protection but also - to a lesser extent - the larger share of agriculture in these economies, compared to the United States.

Indicators on other policies and interventions to facilitate market accessEfforts by developed countries to create an open and non-discriminatory trading system for developing and least developed countries are also assessed on the basis of domestic agricultural subsidies measured as a percentage of total GDP in OECD countries and on the basis of the support provided to developing countries to help them build their trade capacity.

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In 2002, support to agriculture in the developed countries amounted to $US 318 billion, or 1.2 per cent of GDP, down from $US 351 billion, or 1.9 per cent of GDP, in 1990. These amounts dwarf ODA flows, for instance, which are now equivalent to about one fifth of agricultural subsidies (see figure 13). In the case of cotton, subsidies were about $5.8 billion for the crop year 2001/02, according to the International Cotton Advisory Committee. This amount compares to total international trade in cotton of 7.7 billion in 2001 and $7.6 million in 2002 respectively.8 These subsidies increase the supply of cotton onto world markets and cause prices to fall, with adverse effects on producers of cotton in developing countries, as in West Africa where cotton accounts for 45-55 per cent of export revenues in Benin, Burkina Faso and Mali and 79 per cent in Chad.9

Capacity-building in tradeAt Doha, donors committed to providing increased support to help developing countries, especially LDCs, build the capacity to trade and to integrate into world markets. WTO and OECD have compiled the Doha Development Agenda Trade Capacity Building Database (TCBDB) that lists and quantifies such activities by bilateral and multilateral donors from 2001 onwards.

In 2001, $466 million was pledged for trade policy, while just over $1 billion was pledged for trade development, such as investments in trade promotion, trade finance, integrating trade issues into countries’ poverty strategies and supporting trade institutions (see table 29). Indications are that the rate and volume of commitments increased in 2002.

5 OECD, DAC recommendation on untying official development assistance to the least developed countries (2001), available from http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/14/56/1885476.pdf

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Figure 13. Total agriculture support compared to ODA, 1990 and 2001

050

100150200250300350400

Total agriculture support as percent of GDP (OECD countries)

Offi cial development assistance

Source: Calculations prepared by OECD, based on data and information compiled by OECD.

19902001

Figure 12. Agriculture support estimate for OECD countries as percentage of their GDP, 1990-2002

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0.5

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2.5

3.0

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'91

'92

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Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on data provided by OECD.

Total OECDNorth America (OECD)Europe (OECD)Asia and Oceania (OECD)

Figure 14. Trade-related Technical Assistance/Capacity-Building by main category of expenditure and by region

2001 -Trade policy and regulations (US$ 466 million)

25%

5%

12%

0%

16%

42%

Africa

America

Asia

Europe

Oceania

Globalprogrammes

2001 -Trade development(US$ 1 016 million)

33%

8%

10%

0%

23%

26%

Source: OECD/World Trade Organization, Doha Development Agenda Trade Capacity-Building Database, available from http://tcbdb.wto.orgTable 29. ODA commitments to trade-related technical assistance/capacity-building, 2001

1 2 3 4Regions Total ODA

(US$ ml)Trade policy and

regulations(US$ ml)

Trade development

(US$ ml)

Total as a percentage of total

ODA =(2+3)/1World 62,555 466 1,016 2.4Africa 16,749 116 340 2.7America 5,193 24 78 2.0Asia 21,158 194 229 2.0Europe 9,523 58 103 1.7Oceania 1,401 1 1 0.2Global programmes 8,531 73 265 4.0Source: OECD/ World Trade Organization, Doha Development Agenda Trade Capacity-Building Database, available from http://tcbdb.wto.org/Note: Columns 2 and 3 are not fully comparable. They are summed only notionally in order to calculate the MDG indicator, which is expressed as a percentage of total ODA (column 4).

Debt sustainability A global partnership for development will also require increased debt reduction. The major current international effort targeted specifically at improving developing countries’ debt sustainability is the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. Some $51 billion of nominal debt relief had been committed under this Initiative as of September 2003 (excluding $800 million committed to Côte d’Ivoire but stalled due to hostilities in the country), but more needs to be done. For some, the HIPC process is proceeding too slowly. For others, even after benefiting from the HIPC process, the debt relief provided is proving insufficient to achieve a “sustainable” debt level.

There are 38 countries considered likely to be eligible for assistance under the enhanced HIPC Initiative. Almost all are in sub-Saharan Africa. By September 2003, 27 countries had reached their decision points and were benefiting from HIPC debt relief and 8 of the 27 countries had also reached their completion points (see table 30). The debt stocks for these countries taken as a group will fall by nearly two thirds (on a present value basis) after the full application of this and other debt relief mechanisms and bilateral debt forgiveness over and beyond the enhanced HIPC Initiative.

Table 30. Enhanced HIPC Initiative: status as of September 2003Countries that have reached Decision and

Countries between Decision and Completion Points (19) Countries still to be considered for Decision

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Completion Points (8) Points (11)Benin Cameroon Madagascar BurundiBolivia Chad Malawi Central African Rep.Burkina Faso Congo, Dem. Rep. of Nicaragua ComorosMali Ethiopia Niger Congo, Rep. ofMauritania Gambia Rwanda Côte d’Ivoire*Mozambique Ghana Sao Tome and Principe Lao PDRTanzania Guinea Senegal LiberiaUganda Guinea-Bissau Sierra Leone Myanmar

Guyana Zambia SomaliaHonduras Sudan

Togo

* Côte d’Ivoire reached the decision point under the original HIPC Initiative, but has not yet reached the decision point under the enhanced HIPC Initiative.Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on data provided by IMF and World Bank.

The Initiative is intended to leave the beneficiary countries with external debt that is “sustainable” in terms of the relationship between export receipts (as well as any worker remittances received from abroad) and external debt service obligations. The ratio of debt service to exports averaged about 18 per cent in all low- and middle-income economies over the period 1990 to 2000. The average for low-income economies alone declined sharply in the past few years and should decline further as countries participating in the HIPC Initiative gain further debt relief. For the 27 countries that reached decision points under the enhanced HIPC Initiative, the ratio of debt service to exports is expected to fall from an average of 16 per cent in 1998-1999 to 10 per cent in 2001-2005—less than half the average for all developing countries.

Small, open economies may have relatively high levels of exports (and imports) and yet may face problems in meeting debt service obligations, particularly when debt service payments due on public debt are high relative to government revenue. A large economy may have proportionately smaller exports and still find its debt payments sustainable. In addition, countries that depend on one or two commodities for the bulk of their export revenues may be particularly vulnerable when prices for commodities fall.

For this reason, it is for in-depth analysis to look at other indicators, such as the ratio of total debt to gross national income, the size of international reserves relative to total debt, and debt maturing within a year’s time, in forming a picture of debt sustainability.

Target 16 - In cooperation with developing countries, develop and implement strategies for decent and productive work for youth

Indicators on youth unemploymentEfforts to provide decent and productive work for youth are monitored on the basis of the youth unemployment rate, defined as the percentage of unemployed people ages 15–24 in the labour force of the same age group.

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Table 31. Youth unemployment rate (millions and percentage), 1995-2000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000World unemployed youth (millions) 58 61 61 65 66 …

Regiona b Youth unemployment rate (percentage)Developed economies 14.6 14.6 14.2 13.4 12.8 10.4Transition economies 17.0 16.7 17.0 18.3 18.1 …Asia and the Pacific 9.9 11.0 9.9 10.3 10.4 …Latin America and the Caribbean 12.1 12.5 12.0 13.0 15.2 …Sub-Saharan Africac (7.6) (11.0) (11.8) (13.1) (11.9) …Middle East and North Africac (25.7) (21.7) (23.0) (15.7) (26.2) …a Regions are based on ILO classification.b World and region figures were calculated using different methodologies; weaknesses in available data stemmed from reliability of data from sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa. Therefore the world values do not correspond to the weighted estimate values.c Figures are estimated indirectly using the relationship between youth unemployment rate and total unemployment rate. Their degree of accuracy therefore depends on their validity and underlying relationship.Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on data provided by ILO.

Employment for youth is a critical component to achieving sustainable and equitable development in the developing regions, where 18.5 per cent of the population is 15-24 years old (20 per cent in the least developed countries), compared to 13.7 in the developed regions. The International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that the youth unemployment rate rose from 12.1 to 15.2 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean, and from 7.6 to 11.9 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa between 1995 and 1999 (see table 31). Youth unemployment also increased –although to a lesser extent–in the transition economies, Asia and the Pacific and the Middle East and North Africa. Only in the developed regions did youth unemployment decrease, from 14.6 per centin 1995 to 10.4 in 2000.

Unemployment among young people in developing regions leads to the marginalization and frustration of a potentially productive workforce and an important asset to society, and may lead to long-term unemployability. In 2002, young people accounted for about 40 per cent of the 180 million persons classified as unemployed in the world, or around 74 million.10 Eighty-five per cent of all young people live and work in developing regions where, unlike in developed regions, only very few have the option of further education and training to add to their skills.

To tackle the problem of youth unemployment in poor countries, the United Nations has established the Youth Employment Network. The network states the issue as follows: “In the next 10 years, 1.2 billion young women and men will enter into the working age population, the best educated and trained generation of young people ever, a great potential for economic and social development. The expected inflow of young people into the labour market, rather than being viewed as a problem, should be recognized as presenting an enormous opportunity and potential for economic and social development.”11

The Youth Employment Network has identified four global priorities for a decent work strategy for young people, namely:

10 W. Schaible and R. Mahadevan-Vijaya “World and regional estimates for selected key indicators of the labour market”, Employment Paper 2002/36, ILO, p.20 (Geneva, 2002), available from http://mirror/public/english/employment/strat/kilm/workpap.htm; the estimate of 180 million unemployed is from ILO, “Global Employment Trends”, p.1 (Geneva, 2003), and the 74 million unemployed estimate was extrapolated by the Youth Employment Sector, ILO.11 See the policy recommendations of the Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel on Youth Employment, in United Nations document A/56/422.

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Employability: invest in education and vocational training for young people, and improve the impact of those investments.

Equal opportunities: give young women the same opportunities as young men. Entrepreneurship: make it easier to start and run enterprises to provide more and

better jobs for young women and men. Employment creation: place employment creation at the centre of macroeconomic

policy.

The Network has urged governments to translate these four global priorities into national reviews and action plans with targets for the creation of jobs and for the reduction of unemployment.

ILO estimates that the number of young unemployed has risen rapidly over the most recent years. Globally, it estimates that youth unemployment rose by 16 million between 1995 and 2002, with more than half of this increase taking place in the last three years.

Overall young people continue to suffer from marked disadvantages in the labour market when compared with older adults. Youth unemployment rates are high or very high in many countries. Of the 88 countries for which recent information is available (1995 or later), 49 have youth unemployment rates of over 15 per cent and 35 over 20 per cent. Looking at the latest year available for each country with unemployment information, the youth unemployment rate of females exceeds that of males in 49 out of 81 countries.

Youth unemployment rates almost always exceed adult unemployment rates (see table 32). The ratio shows that in most countries, youth unemployment rates are two to four times the older adult unemployment rates, and show a significant deterioration over the past three years in Latin America and the Caribbean, with the ratio between youth and adult unemployment almost doubling from 2.1 to 3.9 between 1995 and 1999.

Target 17 - In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countriesAn issue that has polarized the international trade negotiations and highlighted the growing rift between poor and rich countries is access to medicines. In goal 8 on global partnership, target 17 stresses the need to make essential drugs available and affordable to all those who need them.

The World Health Organization regularly monitors access to a minimum of 20 most essential drugs in countries on the basis of their being continuously available and affordable. In 1999, some 90 per cent of the population in developed regions had regular access to essential drugs, but only 65 per cent in developing regions. There was some improvement from 1987, when estimates indicate that 55 per cent of the population in developing countries had access to treatment using essential drugs. In spite of some progress, however, still about one person in three in developing countries continues to lack such access. There is also a gap in the geographical distribution of essential drugs. In sub-Saharan Africa and south-central Asia, over 50 per cent of the population lack access to even the most basic essential drugs. It is

Table 32. Ratio of youth unemployment rate to adult unemployment rate, 1995-2000Regiona 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000Developed economies 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.0Transition economies 2.6 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.9 …Asia and the Pacific 3.9 5.1 3.9 3.6 3.6 …Latin America and the Caribbean 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.0 3.9 …a Regions are based on ILO classification.Insufficient data are available to estimate regional figures for sub-Saharan Africa and Middle East and North Africa.Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); (http://millenniumindicators.un.org, accessed December 2003), based on data provided by ILO.

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estimated that 80 per cent of individuals without access live in low-income countries against only 0.3 per cent in high-income countries.

The number of countries with low level of access decreased from 1987 to 1999. All countries reporting low access are from developing regions and over half the countries with low level of access are in sub-Saharan Africa.

In Europe, the number of countries with very high access has decreased following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Countries with very high level of access are mostly the countries of Western Europe, northern America and Asia. As of 1999, there are 25 countries in Europe with very high level of access compared to only two in sub-Saharan Africa.

Access to HIV drugs

It is estimated that some 40 million adults and children were living with HIV/AIDS at the end of 2002 and in need of care, including medicines such as anti-retrovirals (ARV). Access to ARV is still very limited in developing countries. Various initiatives to improve access are now being undertaken by international agencies, governments, non-government organizations and private entities.

As a result of public-private sector collaboration, prices of ARV have been reduced by 95 per cent in the last few years. Some countries are now providing free anti-retrovirals to HIV patients and others are working on patent restrictions to make ARV drugs more available.

Table 34. Number of countries by level of access to essential drugs, 1987 and 1999Low Middle High Very high

Region 1987 1999 1987 1999 1987 1999 1987 1999Developed regions 7 3 7 39 30Developing regions 41 28 36 59 14 25 16 25Northern Africa 2 2 2 1 1 2Sub-Saharan Africa 29 15 9 23 1 5 2Latin America/Caribbean 4

477

1414

1414

55

77

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55Eastern Asia 1 1 1 2 1

South-central Asia 4 3 5 8 2 2 1South-eastern Asia 3 1 3 5 2 2 2Western Asia 1 1 1 3 4 3 9 9Oceania 1 3 3 4

Table 33. Population with regular access to essential drugs, late 1990s

Region PercentageDeveloped regions 91Developing regions 65Northern Africa 83Sub-Saharan Africa 47Latin America/Caribbean 64Eastern Asia 84South-central Asia 44South-eastern Asia 77Western Asia 86Oceania 77Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on World Health Organization, “Progress of WHO member States in developing national drug policies and in revising essential drugs lists”, WHO/DAP/98.7. (Geneva, 1998), p. 12.

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Source: World Health Organization, estimates based on World Health Organization, “Progress of WHO member States in developing national drug policies and in revising essential drugs lists”, WHO/DAP/98.7. (Geneva, 1998), p. 12. There were 149 countries reporting in 1987 and 181 countries reporting in the late 1990s.

The use of generic drugs, in particular, and the importing of such drugs for countries lacking their own pharmaceutical industry, has been the focus of much of the recent multilateral trade negotiations at World Trade Organization. See chapter 6 for a fuller discussion of WTO’s agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS).

In 2002, ten anti-retroviral compounds recommended for the combination treatment of HIV infection in adults and children were included in the WHO model list of essential drugs.

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Target 18 - In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communicationsTechnology enhances people’s lives and can spur the economic growth of countries. Yet, access to such technology is very unevenly distributed. Only ten per cent of the world’s population had access to the Internet in 2002 and over 70 per cent of these lived in developed countries.12 The use of Information of communications technologies (ICT) can make governments more transparent and therefore reduce corruption and lead to better governance. It can help people

12 ITU, Telecom World 2003, “Reaching the Unreached”, available from http://www.itu.int/WORLD2003/media/features/devbackgrounder.html

How the indicators are calculatedYouth unemploymentThe youth unemployment rate (youth unemployment as a percentage of the youth labour force) is a general measure of utilization of the labour force of young persons, defined as persons aged 15 to 24 years old. Unemployment, however, is but one dimension of the employment problem faced by young people: a disproportionately large number of young persons are underemployed in many countries. Some are working fewer hours than they would like to and others are working long hours with little economic gain. Stagnation and decline of employment opportunities in the formal sectors of most developing countries has intensified the problem in recent years, with young women bearing a disproportionate burden. Supplementary indicators to understand the employment problem should include measures of underemployment, the informal sector, educational access and labour force participation, amongst others.

Access to essential drugsThe World Health Organization regularly monitors access to a minimum of 20 most essential drugs in countries on the basis of their being continuously available and affordable at public or private health facilities or drug outlets that are within one hour’s walk. Essential medicines fall into a number of categories, for instance, well-known anesthetics, analgesics, antibacterials and antimalarials among others. The information is generated through interviews with relevant experts on the pharmaceutical situation in each country. Countries are categorized as having low, middle, high, very high coverage where:

Low means that less than 50 per cent of the population has regular access. Middle means that 50-80 per cent of the population has regular access. High means that 81-95 per cent of the population has regular access. Very high means that more than 95 per cent of the population has regular access.

The access framework covers a number of criteria, including: (a) the rational selection of drugs appropriate for the population and the setting, (b) sustainable financing and procurement, (c) affordability, and (d) reliable supply system. It is therefore complex to measure accurately.

* World Health Organization, Model List April 2003, available from http:// www.who.int/medicines/organization/par/edl/expertcomm13.shtml

Telephone lines, PCs and Internet users

Indicators on access to new technologies

The indicators used to track progress on making available the benefits of new technology concern the availability to the population of telephone and cellular phone lines, the number of personal computers and the number of Internet users.

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in rural areas find out about market prices and sell their products at a better value. It can also overcome traditional barriers to better education by making books available online and opening the door to e-learning.

Although access to mobile phone and Internet services has grown tremendously over the past decade, the gap between poor people and rich people’s access to communication services has to be reduced in order for all nations to effectively participate in and benefit from the global information society. Bridging this “digital divide” has risen to the top of the development community agenda. Recent data are encouraging: usage of the Internet in developing countries has soared.

Data on telephone subscribers come from administrative records compiled by national regulatory authorities or telecommunication operators and tend to be timely and complete. However there are issues related to the practice of some countries including a “virtual” number of telephone lines for high-speed data services. There are also comparability issues for mobile subscribers due to the prevalence of pre-paid subscriptions. This arises from differences in the time period chosen for considering when to consider a pre-paid subscription no longer active.

The precise number of PCs is available only in few countries. The ITU uses industry sales data to derive the stock of PCs for most developed and major developing nations. In cases where these data are not available, the ITU also uses PC import data to make estimates. Neither sales nor import data is available for many, mainly smaller developing nations. Another limitation of the PC data is that it is quite recent so longitudinal time series only exist for developed nations and major developing ones.

Finally, there are growing methodological issues in measuring the number of Internet users. These include wide variations in the definition of an Internet user in terms of the user’s age and frequency of use and age. Another emerging issue is how to treat Internet access from mobile phones. While many developed nations now carry out Internet use surveys conducted by national statistical offices or industry associations, hardly any developing countries do so. In the case of most developing nations, Internet users are calculated based on a multiplier factor of the number of subscribers. This could be misleading since many users in developing countries are not subscribers and obtain access through public facilities such as libraries, Internet cafés and schools.

References and international data comparisonsTrade, finance and official development assistance

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (2003). Debt Relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. Internet site http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/hipc.htm. Washington, D.C.

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (2003). Producer and Consumer Support Estimates, OECD Database 1986-2002, User’s Guide. Paris. Available from http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/47/20/4351287.pdf.

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (2003). Producer and Consumer Support Estimates, OECD Database 1986-2002. Internet site http://www.oecd.org, Select Statistics/Agriculture and Fisheries. Paris.

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (annual). Agricultural Policies in OECD Countries, Monitoring and Evaluation. Paris.

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE (2003). Internet site http://www.oecd.org/dac. Paris.

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE (annual). Development Co-operation Report. Paris.

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Telephone subscribersThe total number of telephone subscribers (fixed and mobile) rose from 530 million in 1990 to 2,284 million in 2002, a growth of 331 per cent. Access to telephone networks more than tripled from 10.1 subscribers per 100 inhabitants in 1990 to 36.8 in 2002. (See table 35) The most rapid growth occurred in use of mobile phones. From just 11 million subscribers in 1990, the number of mobile cellular subscribers exceeded one billion by the end of 2002, an annual average growth rate of 47 per cent compared to just 7 per cent for fixed telephone line subscribers.

Mobile is often the first area where competition has been introduced and private investment allowed. Competition has led to a drop in prices and market innovation. The introduction of prepaid cards for mobile networks has also driven growth, particularly in developing nations where many citizens would not qualify for conventional subscriptions. One in five people around the world now has a mobile phone, up from one in 339 in 1991. In 2002, the number

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE (annual). International Development Statistics. CD-ROM. Paris.

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT. DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE COMMITTEE (2003). Internet site http://www.oecd.org/dac. Under Topics, select: Aid statistics, Aid effectiveness and donor practices or Millennium Development Goals. Paris.

UNITED NATIONS (1998). International Merchandise Trade Statistics – Concepts and Definitions, Series M, No. 52, Rev. 2. Sales No. E.98.XVII.16. Available from http://unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs (A, C, E, F, R, S).

UNITED NATIONS (2003). Millennium Indicators Database. Statistics Division Internet site http://millenniumindicators.un.org.

UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT (2003). Trade Analysis and Information System (TRAINS). Internet site http://r0.unctad.org/trains. Geneva.

UNITED NATIONS OFFICE OF THE HIGH REPRESENTATIVE FOR THE LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, LANDLOCKED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND SMALL ISLAND DEVELOPING STATES (2003). Internet site http://www.un.org/ohrlls.

UNITED NATIONS, COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION and DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD BANK (1994). System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA 1993), Series F, No.2, Rev. 4. Sales No. E.94.XVII.4. Available with updates at http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993.

WORLD BANK (2003 and annual). World Development Indicators. Print and CD-ROM. Washington, D.C. Available in part from http://www.worldbank.org/data.

WORLD BANK (2003). Debt Initiative for the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs). Internet site http://www.worldbank.org/hipc. Washington, D.C.

WORLD BANK (annual). Global Development Finance, vol. 2, Country Tables. Washington, D.C.

WORLD CUSTOMS ORGANIZATION (1996). Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding Systems, Second Edition (HS). Brussels. English, French.

WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION AND ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (2003 and annual). Joint WTO/OECD Report on Trade-Related Technical Assistance and Capacity-Building, Management of Trade Capacity-Building. Paris and Geneva. Available from http://tcbdb.wto.org/statanalysis.asp.

Youth Employment

INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION (1990). Surveys of Economically Active Population, Employment, Unemployment and Underemployment: An ILO Manual on Concepts and Methods. Geneva.

INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION (2000). Current International Recommendations on Labour Statistics, 2000 Edition. Geneva.

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of mobile telephone subscribers surpassed fixed ones, and there was strong growth in developing regions in particular. China, for instance, surpassed the United States to emerge as the largest mobile phone market in the world. Growth has also been robust in Africa where more than half the countries now have more mobile than fixed telephone subscribers.

As a whole, developing countries now account for 45 per cent of all telephone subscribers in the world, up from just 19 per cent in 1990.

Personal computers and access to InternetThe number of personal computers (PCs) rose from some 120 million in 1990 to 615 million in 2002. Worldwide, PCs per 100 people stood at 10 per cent at the end of 2002 (See table 36). Between 1990 and 2000, developing countries increased their share of PCs by about 10 percentage points. While they had some 20 per cent of the total PC stock in the early 1990s, they now own about 30 per cent of all PCs.

INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION (2003). Laborsta—an International Labour Office database on labour statistics operated by the ILO Bureau of Statistics. Internet site http://laborsta.ilo.org. Geneva.

INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION (annual). Key Indicators of the Labour Market. Geneva. Available in part from http://www.ilo.org/kilm.

INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION (annual). Yearbook of Labour Statistics. Tables 3A-3E. Geneva. Available from http://laborsta.ilo.org.

INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION UNION (2003). World Telecommunication Indicators Database. Geneva. Available from http://www.itu.int/ITU–D/ict/publications/world/world.html.

INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION UNION (annual). Yearbook of Statistics. Geneva. Available from http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict.

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (2003). Standardized Unemployment rates for OECD countries. In Main Economic Indicators. Paris. Available from http://www.oecd.org. Select: Employment/ Statistics/Indicators.

UNITED NATIONS (2003). Millennium Indicators Database. Statistics Division Internet site http://millenniumindicators.un.org.

UNITED NATIONS (2003). Millennium Indicators Database. Statistics Division Internet site http://millenniumindicators.un.org.

UNITED NATIONS, AND INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION BUREAU OF STATISTICS (2002). Collection of Economic Characteristics in Population Censuses. Technical report. ST/ESA/STAT/119.

WORLD BANK (2003 and annual). World Development Indicators. Print and CD-ROM. Washington, D.C. Available in part from http://www.worldbank.org/data.

WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION (1997). The WHO Model List of Essential Medicines- The 13th Model List of Essential Medicines. Geneva. Available from http://www.who.int/medicines.

WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION (1998). Progress of WHO Member States in Developing National Drug Policies and in Revising Essential Drugs Lists. WHO/DAP/98.7. Geneva. Available from http://www.who.int/medicines.

Table 35. Telephone lines and cellular phones per 100 population, 1990 and 2002

Region 1990 2002Developed regions 38.1 103.4Developing regions 2.4 20.8Northern Africa 2.9 17.9Sub-Saharan Africa 1.1 5.5Latin America/Caribbean 6.4 36.4Eastern Asia 2.4 37.8South-central Asia 1.0 5.8South-eastern Asia 1.4 16.3Western Asia 10.0 41.5Oceania 3.4 9.7Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on data provided by ITU.

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Growing investment in information technology, falling prices through technological improvement and reductions in trade barriers, domestic production, and greater functionality have driven PC sales.

Another major factor in the rise of PC penetration has been the use of the PC as the leading access device to the Internet. Internet usage has grown at an astounding pace. Just 27countries had a direct connection to the global network in 1990. Today, practically every country in the world is online and by the end of 2002, there were almost 600 million users around the world. It is estimated that some 10 per cent of the world’s population was online at the end of 2002. Over half the adult population is online in most developed countries. Internet usage has grown fastest in developing countries. These now account for 34 per cent of all Internet users in 2002: a dramatic increase from the 2 per cent share in 1991.

A key development is the growing use of wireless technologies to access the Internet. In some countries, third generation mobile services have been launched that provide Internet access via mobile networks at speeds higher than a dial-up telephone line. At the same time, there are a growing number of locations around the world providing high-speed wireless Internet access for suitably equipped laptop PCs at special locations (so-called “hotspots”).

The availability of gender-disaggregated statistics for target 18 indicators is limited. Data for the number of telephone subscribers and PCs come from administrative and operational records, which do not disaggregate the data by sex. In the case of Internet users, surveys have been conducted in some 39 countries providing a breakdown between women and men.

A simple average of these countries indicates that 43 per cent of Internet users are women, although the average masks large differences across countries. In a couple of countries, there are more women online than men. In those countries where a time series is available, the trend is towards an increasing proportion of female users over time.

Outlook for the futureThe telecommunication industry has undergone a major transformation over the last two decades. For most of the period since the Second World War, the industry has moved along gradually with network growth rates of between 5 and 7 per cent per year. This changed

Table 36. Personal computers and internet users per 100 population, 1990 and 2002

Personal computers per 100

population

Internetusers per

100 population

Region 1990 2002 1990 2002Developed regions 8.9 36.4 0.3 33.4Developing regions 0.3 3.2 0.0 4.1

Northern Africa 0.1 1.7 0.0 1.7

Sub-Saharan Africa 0.3 1.2 0.0 1.1

Latin America/Caribbean 0.6 6.9 0.0 7.6

Eastern Asia 0.3 5.0 0.0 6.9

South-central Asia 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.8

South-eastern Asia 0.0 2.6 0.0 5.6

Western Asia 1.2 5.1 0.0 6.3

Oceania 0.0 5.8 0.0 3.2

Source: United Nations Statistics Division, “World and regional trends”, Millennium Indicators Database, http://millenniumindicators.un.org (accessed December 2003); based on data provided by ITU.

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around the mid-1990s when growth rates started to go up and up, peaking at a heady 28 per cent in 2000. Underlying these statistics is a period of high and sustained investment.

What happened in the late 1990s was the sort of radical shift that usually only happens every fifty years or so and is generally caused by the confluence of rapid technological change with a shift in market expectations, in this particular case associated with mobile networks overtaking fixed-line networks, and with data overtaking voice.

Global spending on information technology products averaged around 9 per cent growth a year between 1997 and 2001 in an effort to boost productivity. Today’s entry level PC costs roughly the same as one 10 years ago even though it is some 40 times more powerful. The World Trade Organization’s Ministerial Declaration on Trade in Information Technology Products (ITA), concluded in December 1996, provides for participants to completely eliminate duties on IT products covered by the Agreement by 1 January 2000. Signatories cover 90 per cent of the market in IT products.

As the ICT industry enters the 21st century, the equation has changed for many developing nations. Since computers are now readily available all over the world, the concern has shifted from scarce supply of hardware to affordability and skills to use computer technology effectively.

Notes

2 United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2626 (XXV) of 24 October 1970. Switzerland and the United States have not committed to the 0.7 per cent target.3 These figures for aid to basic social services may be underestimated, as some assistance within wider sector programmes and multi-sector programmes is not captured by the reporting system.4 Data exclude technical co-operation and administrative costs and ODA from Austria, Luxembourg, New Zealand and the United States that do not report the tying status of their ODA. 6 United Nations, National Accounts Statistics: Analysis of Main Aggregates 2001 (United Nations publication, Sales No. ).7 For agricultural products, the total support estimate (TSE) represents the overall taxpayer and consumer costs of agricultural policies. It includes support to individual farmers from trade barriers that keep domestic farm prices above those on world markets, budgetary-financed payments, and input subsidies, as well as support to general services provided to the agricultural sector as a whole and consumer food subsidies. When expressed as a percentage of GDP, TSE is an indicator of the cost to the economy as a whole. Differences across countries of TSE as a percentage of GDP reflect the level of support and the share of agricultural output in the economy in countries. Changes over time reflect changes in the level of support and in the share of agriculture in GDP, as well as the growth of the economy. 8 “Your Farm Subsidies are Strangling Us”, New York Times, 11 July 2003 (article by the presidents of Mali, Amadou Toumani, and Burkina Faso, Blaise Compaore); and United Nations, International Trade Statistics Yearbook 2002 (United Nations publication, Sales No. ).9 Ibid.

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