gmm february 2010

8/14/2019 GMM February 2010

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TOURISM AUSTRALIA GLOBAL MARKET MONITOR

February 2010

Editionvii

TheTourismAustraliaGlobalMarketMonitorisproducedquarterlytoprovideanupdateonthe

currentstateofAustraliantourism.TourismAustralia(TA)drawsonarangeofavailabledataand

summarisessurveyresponsesfromdomesticandinternationaltourismsuppliersandsellers.Thank

youtoallwhocontributedtothisreport.

ExecutiveSummary

DespitetheglobalfinancialcrisisandtheoutbreakoftheH1N1virus,Australiantourismmanagedto

defytheglobaldownturnlastyear.TAManagingDirectorAndrewMcEvoysaidGiventhatglobal

tourismfellby4%in2009,Australiaperformedcomparativelywell.Inboundtouristarrivalswere

unchangedin2009comparedto2008.

January2010arrivalsareestimatedtoremainflatcomparedtoJanuary2009reflectingthisyearslater

timingofChineseNewYear(i.e.14Februarycomparedto26Januaryin2009).

Figure1

%

change

on

last

year

in

international

arrivals

by

month

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

Jan09 Feb09 Mar09 Apr09 May09 Jun09 Jul09 Aug09 Sep09 Oct09 Nov09 Dec09 Jan10(e)

%changeoverthesamemont

hinthepreviousyear

ChangeininternationalarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)

Source:ABS,DIACandTA

Nb.January2009resultswereboostedbytheearliertimingofChineseNewYear,whileApril2009 resultswillbeboostedbythelatertimingofEasterthisyear.

(e) Tourism Australiaestimatesonpartialdata


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2BeyondFebruary,thereareclearsignsofrecoveryandimprovementsinconsumerconfidencein

NorthAsiawithChinaandKoreashowingsignsofgrowth.SouthEastAsiaappearsupbeathowever

Indiaindicatorsaremixed.ThereisageneralsenseofcautiousconfidenceintheUK,Europe,USand

Canadaalthoughthecontinualimprovementofconsumersentimentworldwideisconstrainedbyhigh

unemployment,lossesinwealthandcautiouslending.

Growthreturned

to

international

tourism

in

the

last

quarter

of

2009

contributing

to

better

than

expectedfullyearresults.TheTourismForecastingCommittee(TFC)hasforecastamodestrecovery

acrossallkeysectorsoftheAustraliantourismindustryin2010.Strongcompetitionfromworldwide

destinations(shorthaulinparticular)continuestochallengethecompetitiveadvantagesenjoyedby

Australiaoverthepastyear.Arrivalsarenowforecasttogrowbetween3%and4%in2010.

TheappreciationoftheAustraliandollaraffectsAustraliantourism.Consumertravelbuyinghabits

reflectpricesensitivityandincludelastminutebookings.

Theglobalaviationindustryreportedimprovedtrafficvolumesinthelastquarterof2009.Global

capacitycontinuestorise,boostedbyworldwideincreasesinbothfrequenciesandcapacityinthelow

costsector.

The

Australian

aviation

industry

is

performing

relatively

well.

International

capacity

to

Australiahasincreasedby4.7%althoughdomestictrafficfell2.6%fromJanuarytoNovember2009.

Industrysectorssuchasbusinessevents,accommodation,attractionsandinboundtouroperatorsare

reportingsignsofimprovedbusiness.Industryfeedbackonenquiriesandforwardbookingsisalso

optimistic.

Theaccommodationsectorcontinuestobechallengedbydecreasingyieldsandshortbookinglead

times.Attractionsoperatorshaveexpressedmixedopinionsand,likeothersectors,areimpactedby

lastminutebookingswhichmakeforecastingdifficult.

InboundTour

Operators

are

confident

moving

into

2010

despite

strong

competition

from

short

haul

destinations.ManyAsianinboundtouroperatorscontinuetocitethehighAustraliandollarandairline

seatcapacityastheirprimaryreasonforlowerbookings,howevertherearefewercancellationsacross

allmarketsduetothedeclineofpandemicinfluenzaH1N1.

Whiledomestictourismcontinuestobe75%ofthemarket,itremainshighlycompetitivewithtrends

indicatethatAustraliansaretravellinglessforfewernightswithinAustralia.Australiaspositive

economicoutlookissupportedbyimprovedconsumerconfidencerates.Thecostsofbothdomestic

andoverseasholidaysarerisingandtheappreciationoftheAustraliandollaraddsfurthercompetition

fordomestictourism.

Whilstthere

are

positive

signs

of

aturning

point

in

tourism

for

Australia

in

2010,

it

is

not

yet

clear

the

timeframenorthesustainabilityoftherecovery,andassuchthereiscautiousoptimism.

www.tourism.australia.com/globalmarketmonitor


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3Contents

1. TOURISMAUSTRALIASCURRENTGLOBALACTIVITIES....................................................... 4

2. GLOBALTOURISMCONTEXT.............................................................................................. 6

3. RISKSTOAUSTRALIANTOURISM....................................................................................... 9

3.1 TheAustralianDollar......................................................................................................... 9

3.2 ImpactsoftheEconomicCrisisonAviation...................................................................... 11

3.3 OtherRiskstoInboundTourism....................................................................................... 12

4. SECTOROUTLOOKS.......................................................................................................... 13

4.1 BusinessEventsMarketOutlook...................................................................................... 13

4.2 IndustryPerspectives...................................................................................................... 13

4.3 DomesticTourismOutlook.............................................................................................. 14

5. INDIVIDUALMARKETOUTLOOKS..................................................................................... 17

5.1 UnitedStates................................................................................................................... 17

5.2 UnitedKingdom............................................................................................................... 18

5.3 NewZealand................................................................................................................... 19

5.4 Germany......................................................................................................................... 19

5.5 France............................................................................................................................. 20

5.6 Canada............................................................................................................................ 21

5.7 Ireland............................................................................................................................. 22

5.8 Japan............................................................................................................................... 22

5.9 China............................................................................................................................... 23

5.10 HongKong....................................................................................................................... 24

5.11 Korea............................................................................................................................... 25

5.12 Singapore........................................................................................................................ 25

5.13 Malaysia.......................................................................................................................... 26

5.14 India................................................................................................................................ 27

5.15 Taiwan............................................................................................................................ 28

5.16 OtherMarkets(outsidetheabove15)............................................................................. 29



4/29

41. TOURISMAUSTRALIASCURRENTGLOBALACTIVITIESWithsomepositivesignsinrecentvisitorarrivalnumbersandareturninconsumerconfidencein

manyofourkeyinternationalmarkets,TAiscontinuingtofocusongeneratingvolumeaswellasits

traditionalbrandbuildingrole.

Routinely,and

in

line

with

market

seasonality,

the

second

half

of

the

fiscal

period

is

when

the

majority

ofourmarketingspendoccurs.Asignificantcomponentofthesecondhalfoftheyearspend,$35.6

million,willbebrandcooperativeactivitywithourkeyairlineandtradepartners.Notably,wewillalso

increaseourbudgetforFrance,withbrandmarketingincludingadvertising,PR,digitalanddirect

consumerpromotionsaswellasanumberofmajortraveltradeevents.

Inadditiontotheseexistingcampaigns,lastOctoberMinisterFergusonannouncedthat$9million

wouldbebroughtforwardfromTAs10/11budgetappropriationforimmediateactivitytoboosttravel

toAustraliafromshortandmediumhaulmarketsaswellasthedomesticbusinesseventstravel

sector.WiththismoneyTAhassecuredanadditional62campaignswithatotalvalueof$20million

with11airlinepartners,sevenstatetourismorganisations,andtworegionaltourismoffices.

TheseactivitiesincludecooperativetacticalcampaignsinNewZealand,China,HongKong,Japan,

India,Singapore,Malaysia,Indonesia,Vietnam,KoreaandGulfregionaswellasmarketingsupportfor

24specialcharterorsupplementaryflights,bringingmorethan7,000additionalseatsintoAustralia

fromGreaterChinaandJapaninFebruaryandMarch.

ThebudgetbringforwardwillalsoenableTAtoassisttheBusinessEventssectorrecoverywitha$2

millionprogramofinitiativeswithindustrypartnerstostimulatedomesticbusinesseventstravel.

Asstated,theseactivitieswillbeadditionaltoourplannedactivityinmajormarketswhichareas

follows:

MajorconsumercampaignsinNorthAmericaincludeAustraliaNowtargetingtheluxurysector,

phasetwoofOneWeekWalkaboutintheUS,aswellasadigitalYouthcampaignintheUSand

Canada.

IntheUK,majoractivitiesincludephasetwooftheEmiratesregionalcooponline,outdoorandradio

campaignaswellastheSingaporeAirlinescoopTVandonlinecampaign.PhasetwooftheQantas

TwoWeekWalkaboutcoopprintandonlinecampaignwilllaunchinMarch.

ForthegrowingFrancemarket,theQantasTwoWeekWalkaboutcooponlinecampaignran

throughoutJanuaryfollowedbyaSingaporeAirlinescooponlinecampaigninFebruary.TheTwo

WeekWalkabout

co

op

online

and

outdoor

campaign

in

partnership

with

FTI

Touristik

and

Singapore

AirlinesisrunninginGermanyuntilFebruary.

IntheEuropeanyouthsegment,anintegratedcampaignwaslaunchedattheCampusStudentFairin

RomeandinGermany,auniversityroadshowtotendifferentcitieswasheldduringJanuary,both

campaignspromotingAustraliaandtheWorkingHolidayVisaProgram.InFranceduringMarch,a

universityroadshowwithradiostationNRJwilltakeplacein10citiesvisitingupto20universitiesto

promoteyouthexperiencesandAustraliaasadestinationforyouthtravel.DedicatedFrenchand

GermanFacebookpageswerealsolaunched.

MajorNewZealandactivitiesincludeanAustralianExploremagazinesupplementintheNewZealand

Heraldas

well

as

amajor

promotion

on

TV3

Sunrise

in

January

and

March.

The

OZTalk

trade

and

consumerexpoisplannedforMarchandWholeofAustraliacoopcampaignwithFlightCentrewill

launchinMarch



5/29

5ThenewandinnovativeAussieOjiCampaigntargetingwomenintheir20sand30slaunchedinJapan

usingdigital,retailengagementandPRandwillcontinuewithanincreasedemphasisonPRandsocial

mediachannels.DigitalactivitytargetingJukunensegmentandpromotionoftheSchoolExcursion

websitewillstartinFebruary.

TacticalcampaignsinChinaincludeanH1N1recoverycampaignwithQantas,PremierAussieSpecialist

campaign,Cathay

Pacific

celebrity

endorsement

promotion

and

adirect

mail

campaign

with

Visa.

The

nextphasesoftheBrandcampaigncommencedinDecemberviaprint,digitalandoutdoorinthe

primaryandsecondarymarketsandaGreaterChinaSearchEngineMarketingcampaignhas

commenced.

AGITcoopcampaignwithmajorKoreanagentsandKoreaAdventureSeekerdigitalcampaign

concludedinDecember.TheFirstTimeExperienceSeekerDigitalcampaignwaslaunchedinTaiwanin

December.

InSingapore,consumertacticalactivitiesincludeaFamilyPlaytimecampaignwithSingaporeAirlines,

VillageRoadshowandSTOpartnersinDecemberandaGreatAustralianJourneyscampaignin

Februarywith

Qantas

and

Chan

Bros.

In

Malaysia,

aGreat

Australian

Journeys

tactical

campaign

continuedwith7StateandTerritoryand11tradepartners.

IntheDomesticMarket,theNoLeaveNoLifeprogramhascontinuedtochallengeAustralianstouse

their123milliondaysofstockpiledannualleavefordomesticholidays.

NoLeaveNoLifehasprovidedapartnershipplatformthathasbeenembracedbyindustry,fromthe

largewholesalepartnersthroughtothesmallandmediumsizedoperatorscontributingtotheNo

LeaveNoLifetacticalmagazines,resultinginalevelofcooperativemarketingnotpreviouslyseenin

thedomesticmarket.

Aspart

of

the

program

TA

created

aTV

series

which

aired

on

Channel

7for

seven

weeks

from

early

December.Theseriesexceededallexpectationsattractingmorethan1.1mviewersperepisode,

winningitstimesloteveryweek,runningasthesecondmostpopularlightentertainmentshowacross

thewholeSaturdayeveningschedulewithloyaltygrowingoverthecourseoftheseries.Behindthe

scenestheresultswereequallyasstrong,bringingTAtogetherwith6StateandTerritoriesand65

operatorstopartnerintheproduction.

TradeActivities

TradeeducationandengagementcontinuestobeanimportantelementofTAsstrategy.Recenttrade

eventsattendedbyTAincludedtheInternationalLuxuryTravelMarket(ILTM)inFranceduring

Decemberas

well

as

the

European

Incentive,

Business

Travel

and

Meetings

Exhibition

(EIBTM)

in

Spain

duringDecember.InJanuary,weparticipatedatkeyEuropeantrade/consumerfairs:Vakantiebeursin

theNetherlands,CMTinGermany,MATKAinFinland,FITURinSpain,andFESPOinSwitzerland.TAwill

alsobeatBorseInternazionaledelTurismo(BIT)inItalyinFebruary,InternationaleTourismusBorse

(ITB)inGermanyandTURinSwedeninMarch.AlsoinMarch,TAwillconducttheUK/EuropeNew

ProductWorkshopsinLondonandtheSouthAfricaWorkshopsinJohannesburg,DurbanandCape

Town.

FromtheAmericas,aLatinAmericafamiliarisationvisitwillbeinSydneyinApril,OzTalk2010willbein

March2010inAucklandandtheJapanAustraliaMission(JAM)andKoreaTravelMission(KTM)2010

willheldjointlyinTokyofrom2426February.JAMwasprecededbyaSchoolExcursion&GroupTour

Workshopon

23

February.

The

Gulf

Road

Show

was

held

in

February

2010.



6/29

6

2. GLOBALTOURISMCONTEXTAccordingtotheUnitedNationsWorldTourismOrganisation(UNWTO),globaltourismisontrackfor

recoveryafteranexceptionallychallenging2009.In2009internationalglobaltouristarrivalsdeclined

anestimated

4%

to

880

million.

This

better

than

expected

result

was

boosted

by

a2%

upswing

in

the

lastquarterof2009(following14monthsofdeclines).AsiaandthePacificandtheMiddleEastregions

ledtherecoverywithconsumerspreferringtotravelclosertohome(aresponsesimilartoprevious

crises).ApartfromAfrica,allworldregionsreporteddeclinesintrafficforthefullyear2009.Europe

wasthehardesthitregionwithAmericasandMiddleEastalsoreportinglarge(6%)declines.

Giventherecentupturnintourismfiguresandmorepositiveeconomicindicators,UNWTOforecasts

internationalarrivalswillgrow3 4%in2010.Thisrecovery,whichisstillfragileanduneven,isalso

reflectedinUNWTOsPanelofExpertsConfidenceIndex.Thisindexhasrisensteeplyin2010,reaching

nearpeaklevelsexperiencedin20042007.Businessandconsumerconfidencecontinuestoimprove

andpentupdemandisexpectedtoassistfurthergrowth.Itisanticipatedthatmajorevents(e.g.

VancouverWinter

Olympics

in

February,

South

Africa

FIFA

Football

World

Cup

in

June

and

Shanghai

WorldExpofromMaytoOctober)willalsocontributetoincreasesintourismtraffic.However,

unemploymentremainsachallenge,alongwithvolatileoilprices,securitythreats,environmental

measures(includingtaxes),reducedbusinessdemandandpotentialforthespreadofinfluenza

(H1N1).

*Provisionalfigureordata(2009*)



7/29

7FromanAustralianperspective,theTourismForecastingCommittee(TFC)hasforecastamodest

economicrecoveryacrossallkeysectorsoftheAustraliantourismindustryin2010:

Inboundvisitors(+4.3%) TotalInboundEconomicValue TIEV(+3.3%) Domesticvisitortrips(+4.0%) Domesticvisitornights(+2.3%) TotalDomesticEconomicValueTIEV(+2.9%) Outbounddepartures(+4.1%)

Anumberoffactorswillinfluencethisrecovery:

ThevalueoftheAustraliandollaragainstthemajorworldcurrencies(inboundandoutbound)andpricecompetitivenessofAustraliasinboundtourismmarket

AirlineseatcapacityandpricediscountingonAustraliainternationalroutes Globalconsumersentiment

Inthe

Pacific

Asia

Travel

Association

(PATA),

Quarterly

Tourism

Monitor

Report

(December

2009),

Australiacontinuedtoperformbetterthanmostotherdestinationsbasedonvisitorarrivalsinthefirst

ninemonthsof2009.Australiasvisitorarrivalsdeclinedby2.0%inthefirstninemonthsoftheyear

whiledestinationssuchasNewZealand,Canada,Hawaii,USAandSingaporedeclinedby1.9,7.6,

5.9,7.8and7.6%respectively.OthersourcesrevealUKandIrelandsimilarlydeclined(8.6%and11.2%

respectively)inthefirstninemonthsof2009whileSouthAfricaincreased4.2%.

Table1:InternationalVisitorArrivalsbyCountry,December2009

JanuarySeptember %Change09/08

Touristarrivals 2008 2009 JanuarySeptember

Vanuatu

133,148 172,507 29.6Myanmar 137,613 158,210 15.0

Korea(ROK) 5,025,164 5,776,184 14.9

ChineseTaipei 2,838,887 3,166,497 11.5

NewCaledonia 174,510 193,932 11.1

CookIslands 69,992 75,691 8.1

Samoa 86,676 92,976 7.3

Malaysia 16,329,855 17,378,040 6.4

SouthAfrica 6,984,413 7,278,767 4.2

Indonesia 3,851,952 3,940,344 2.3

Kiribati

2,880 2,915 1.2

Chile 1,954,325 1,959,297 0.3

Cambodia 1,492,392 1,496,077 0.2

Tuvalu 1,209 1,199 0.8

NewZealand 1,743,045 1,709,734 1.9

Australia 4,045,496 3,965,740 2.0

Nepal 257,181 251,523 2.2

SriLanka 317,546 309,142 2.6

HongKongSAR 21,768,811 21,159,973 2.8

China

(PRC)

97,297,410 93,938,400

3.5Bhutan 16,175 15,535 4.0

Hawaii 5,180,324 4,876,919 5.9

Mexico 15,337,643 14,315,379 6.7



8/29


9/29

9

3. RISKSTOAUSTRALIANTOURISM3.1 TheAustralianDollarTheAustraliandollarpeakedagainstmajorcurrenciesinmid2008.SinceJanuary2009,theAustralian

dollarhasbeenhighlyvolatileandhasincreasedsignificantlyacrossallmajormarkets,althoughin

mostcasesisstillbelowthepeaksof2008.TheAustraliandollarhasstrengthenedagainstmostmajor

currencieswithmanycurrenciesreportingincreasesofaround30% 40%inJanuary2010compared

toJanuary2009.

TheseimprovementsintheAustraliandollarhaveanegativeimpactontheAustraliantourismindustry

asotherdestinationsbecomemorepricecompetitive.Forallmajormarketsthishasaffectedproduct

pricing(reflectedthroughoutcommentaryinthisreportfromAustraliansellers,InboundTour

Operators,theAccommodationsectorandAustralianattractions).

Figures2,3and4 Exchangeratesofselectedforeigncurrencies,ReserveBankofAustralia(RBA),

http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/histexchangerates/index.html(10February2010)

Figure2

SouthEastAsiancurrenciesto$AUindexedtoJanuary2003=1Source:ReserveBankofAustralia

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Singapore

Indonesian

Malaysian

India

http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.htmlhttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.htmlhttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.htmlhttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.htmlhttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.htmlhttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.htmlhttp://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/hist-exchange-rates/index.html


10/29

10Figure 3

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan2003

May2003

Aug2003

Nov2003

Feb

2004

May2004

Aug2004

Nov2004

Feb

2005

May2005

Aug2005

Nov2005

Feb

2006

May2006

Aug2006

Nov2006

Feb

2007

May2007

Aug2007

Nov2007

Feb

2008

May2008

Aug2008

Nov2008

Feb

2009

May2009

Aug2009

Nov2009

NorthernAsiancurrenciestothe$AUindexedtoJanuary2003=1Source:ReserveBankofAustralia

Japan

Korea

China

HongKong

Figure 4

Westerncurrenciestothe$AUindexedtoJanuary2003=1Source:ReserveBankofAustralia

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

USA

Euro

NZ

UK



11/29

113.2 ImpactsoftheEconomicCrisisonAviationAnumberoforganisationshavedeclaredthattheworstoftheeconomiccrisisappearstobeover.The

InternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA)reportedastrongfinishtotheendof2009withglobal

passengerdemandincreasing4.5%duringthemonthofDecember.Overalldemandforthefullyear

2009fell3.5%whileinternationalcapacityfell3.0%.Yieldshavesimilarlyimprovedinrecentmonths

(dueto

tighter

supply

demand

conditions)

but

they

still

remain

below

2008

levels.

According

to

IATA

nosignificantimprovementsareexpectedasnewaircraftaredelivered.Thistogetherwitharangeof

otherfactorsincludingrisingfuelprices(seeFigure5)willcontinuetoimpactairlineprofitability.

AccordingtoIATA,theairlineindustryisexpectedtoloseafurtherUS$5.6billionin2010followingan

estimatedUS$11billionin2009.IATADirectorGeneralandCEO,GiovanniBisignanistatesIntermsof

demand,2009goesintothehistorybooksastheworstyeartheindustryhaseverseen.Wehave

permanentlylost2.5yearsofgrowthinpassengermarketsand3.5yearsofgrowthinthefreight

business.

Figure5OilPrices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2/01/1998

2/05/1998

2/09/1998

2/01/1999

2/05/1999

2/09/1999

2/01/2000

2/05/2000

2/09/2000

2/01/2001

2/05/2001

2/09/2001

2/01/2002

2/05/2002

2/09/2002

2/01/2003

2/05/2003

2/09/2003

2/01/2004

2/05/2004

2/09/2004

2/01/2005

2/05/2005

2/09/2005

2/01/2006

2/05/2006

2/09/2006

2/01/2007

2/05/2007

2/09/2007

2/01/2008

2/05/2008

2/09/2008

2/01/2009

2/05/2009

2/09/2009

2/01/2010

Dailys

potprices(Dollarsperbarrel)

Comparing daily jet fuel prices aginst crude oil pricesSource: Energy Information Administration

Singapore Jet Fuel prices WTI Crude Oil prices

MiddleEasterncarriersreportedtheonlyregionalyearonyeartrafficgrowthin2009,asthey

continuedtogainshareoflonghaulconnectingtrafficovertheirhubs.CarriersintheAsiaPacific,

Europe

and

North

America

recorded

declines

in

traffic

during

2009,

but

Asia

Pacific

prospects

are

improvingfasterthanotherregionswithan8%improvementindemandduringDecember.In2009the

AsiaPacificregionbecametheworldslargestaviationmarketovertakingtheNorthAmericanmarket.

AccordingtoBisignaniTheglobalairtransportindustrywilltripleinsizewhenAsianstravelasmuch

asthoseintheUS.IATAslatestindustryoutlookanticipatesaverageinternationalpassengergrowth

ofaround4%in2010.

Astheglobalenvironmentcontinuestoopenup(e.g.IATAsmultilateralagreementsignedin

November2009)andcompetitionintensifies,alliancesappearmoreimportantthanever.Inrecent

monthsanumberofairlineshaveannouncedorhintedalliances(e.g.Qantas/AirAsia,Japan

Airlines/AmericanAirlines/OneWorld,Virgin/Delta/SkyTeam,Qantas/BritishAirwaysJointService

Agreement

draft

approval).

However

airline

membership

to

associations

may

start

to

be

challenged

withQantasandAirNewZealandrecentlydecidingnottorenewtheirmembershipwithAssociationof

AsiaPacificAirlines(AAPA).



12/29

12Australiacontinuestoperformrelativelywell.AccordingtotheBureauofInfrastructure,Transportand

RegionalEconomics,internationalcapacitytoAustraliaincreased4.7%duringJanuarytoNovember

2009(comparedtothesameperiodinthepreviousyear),andAustraliandomestictrafficfell2.6%.

LoadfactorsonAustralianservicescontinuetofall(internationaldown2%duringJanuaryto

November2009).TAexpectsAustraliawillcontinuetoperformaboveglobaltrendswithinternational

capacitytoAustraliaforecasttoincreaseafurther9%in2010anddomesticcapacityexpectedto

rebound(up

5%)

in

2010.

In

December

2009

the

Australian

Government

released

its

Aviation

White

Paperfurtherhighlightingtheimportanceofthegrowingindustry.InadditionTArecentlyannounced

planstoinvestA$20millionwithairlineandtourismpartnerstocapitaliseupontheglobaleconomic

recoveryandstimulatetraveltoAustralia.

FeedbackfromAustraliasleadingairportsindicatesastrengtheningincapacityduringthelastquarter

of2009althoughconsiderablevariabilityremainsbetweenairports.Asshownintable2,domesticand

internationalseatcapacitythroughSydneyairportreboundedinthelastquarterof2009.International

capacityremainsstrongforMelbourneandAdelaideairports,whiledomesticcapacityremainsweak.

TheGoldCoastcontinuestoreportstronggrowthininternationalcapacityandimprovementsin

domesticcapacity.PerthandDarwinairportscontinuetoreportgrowthindomesticandinternational

capacitywhile

Brisbane

and

Cairns

report

declines

(but

the

outlook

is

improving).

Table2 Changeininternationalanddomesticseats 12monthstoDecember2009for

selectedairports

Source:TourismAustraliasurveyresponsesfromAustralianairports.

January F ebr ua ry Ma rch A pr il Ma y June July August September October November December

Sy dn ey Do me sti c 3% 5%

International 2% 4% 3% 5%

Melbourne Domestic 1%

International 11% 7% 17% 12% 12% 14% 13% 14% 13% 14% 12% 12%

Brisbane Domestic 4% 1% 5% 3% 0% 3%

International 2% 0%

GoldCoast Domestic 0% 8% 12% 5% 6%

International 154% 136% 150% 145% 189% 153% 101% 148% 147% 43% 46% 35%

C ai rns Do me sti c 4% 1%

InternationalAdelaide Domestic 3% 12%

International 6% 7% 1% 5% 7% 14% 16% 8% 7%

P erth Dome sti c 13% 8% 15% 13% 9% 8% 10% 7% 9% 4% 1%

International 17% 4% 9% 12% 10% 9% 18% 26% 25% 24% 17% 9%

Dar wi n Do me sti c 8% 2% 17% 30% 31% 14% 15% 9% 15% 17% 17%

International 2% 28% 18% 6% 15% 6% 18% 1%

%changeonsamemonthpreviousyear

0% 7% 5% 5% 11% 6% 2% 1% 2% 0%

1% 6% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 0%

9% 5% 3% 10% 6% 3% 4% 5% 4% 5% 4%

4% 3% 1% 3% 6% 6%

3% 3% 7% 6% 6% 6% 4% 3% 4% 5%

3% 16% 13% 0% 11% 9% 7%

2% 4% 13% 14% 1% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3%

45%

54%

48%

46%

46%

40%

41%

46%

48%

42%

48%

23%5% 11% 0% 0% 1% 4% 4% 6% 6% 2%

2% 2% 1%

1%

1%

4% 21% 24% 9%

3.3 OtherRiskstoInboundTourismWhilepandemicinfluenzaH1N1transmissionspersist,overallactivitycontinuestodeclineinmost

countries.During2009morethan212countriesandoverseasterritoriesorcommunitiesreported

confirmedcases

of

the

pandemic

influenza,

including

at

least

15,292

deaths.

In

South/South

East

Asia

andEurope,theviruscontinuestocirculatewidelyacrosstheregionbutoverallactivityisdeclining.

WhileChinahasrecentlydetectedanincreasingproportionofseasonalinfluenzaBviruses,lowlevels

ofseasonalH3N2andtypeBvirusesarealsocirculatinginpartsofAfrica,EastandSouthEastAsia

(Source:WorldHealthOrganisation,7February2010).

AustralianandUSofficialsmet(10Jan2010)todiscusstheenhancedbordersecurityproceduresput

inplacefollowingtheNorthwestFlight253incident.TheAustralianGovernmentstresseditwould

workcloselywithUSauthoritiesandairlinestoimplementthemeasuressofarannouncedbythe

ObamaAdministration(Source:CentreforPacificAviation11Jan2010).



13/29

13

4. SECTOROUTLOOKS4.1 BusinessEventsMarketOutlookTherewere145,400inboundvisitorstoAustraliawithaprimarypurposeofattendingaConferenceor

Conventionin2009(down23%on2008).Similarly,overallbusinessarrivalsdecreased14%yearon

yearto726,000(source:AustralianBureauofStatistics,OverseasArrivalsandDepartures).Inaddition,

therewere120,000inboundarrivalsvisitingAustraliaaspartofanincentivetriporganisedbytheir

employeryearendingSeptember2009(Source:TourismResearchAustralia,InternationalVisitor

Survey).

Therewerealso715,000domesticovernightvisitorswhoseprimarypurposefortravelwastoattenda

conference/convention/exhibitionintheyearendingSeptember2009.Inaddition,therewere591,000

domesticovernightvisitorstravellingonanincentivetriporganisedbytheiremployerinthetwelve

monthsending

September

2009

(source:

Tourism

Research

Australia,

National

Visitor

Survey).

Thebusinesseventssectorisshowingsignsofimprovementwithoperatorsreportingmoreactivity

especiallyinthecorporatemeetingsandincentivemarket,theareaimpactedmostbytheGFC.

Clientshavereportedmoreleadsfrominternationalmarketshoweverwithagenerallyshorterlead

timeandwithsmallermeetings.Thegeneralviewisthatthemarkethasbottomedoutandispointing

upwards.However,thereisstillconsiderablecautionbeingexpressedbytheindustrythattheremay

stillbetoughtimesahead.Whileincentivebusinessisbeingwritten,thereisstillastrongdesireby

clientstokeepalowprofileandnotattractattentiontotheirmeetingsandincentiveevents.Newsof

thefragilityoftheGreekeconomyinrecentweeksshowsthatEuropeisstillvulnerable.

Intheassociationsector,someverysubstantialpiecesofbusinessarecurrentlybeingpitchedforby

ProfessionalConferenceOrganisers(PCOs)andConventionandVisitorBureaux(CVBs).Theassociation

marketwillcontinuetobecrucialtoAustraliasbusinesseventseconomy.

4.2 IndustryPerspectivesFeedbackfromtheaccommodation,attractionsandinboundtouroperatorsectorswassoughtto

gaugetheirperspectiveonrecenteconomicandexternalfactorsontheirbusiness.Overallsentiment

indicatesthattherearesignsofrecoveryfromtheturbulenceof2009.Thereisstillconcernand

uncertaintyaroundairlinecapacity,shortbookingleadtimes,consumerpricesensitivityandyield,all

ofwhichmakeforecastingarecoverydifficult.However,enquiriesandforwardbookingshaveshown

improvementsacrossmanymarkets.

FeedbackfromAustralianaccommodationprovidersindicatesoptimismfor2010afterthe

accommodationsectoryieldwashithardin2009.

Theeconomicsituationthatwefacedin2009(GFC)isnolongeranissueformanycompanies,we

noticethatalotofInternationalcompaniesaretravellingandrequireaccommodationaswellas

meetingspace

Indicatorsofrecoveryandoptimismfor2010originatefromfeedbackthatbothenquiriesand

bookingshaveincreasedoverthepast3months,andareviewoftrendsforthenext3months.

Providershavegenerallynotedtherearenochangesincancellations.Convention,Incentiveand

eventsbuyershavestartedtoenquireandplanaheadforbookingsin2010.



14/29

14

Internationalgroupoperatorsarenowstartingtoshowinterestinnewproductdevelopment,

whichwillbegoodforAustraliain2011.Mostgroupoperatorshavenotupdatedprogramsin

thelastcoupleofyears,astheyhavestuckwithcoreitinerariesthatwork

MostInboundTourOperators(ITOs)arequietlyconfidentthatthehardshipsfacedin2009canturn

aroundin

2010.

Again,

the

high

Australian

exchange

rate

and

airline

seat

capacity

has

affected

inboundarrivalsespeciallywhencompetingformarketshareagainstshorthaulmarkets(particularly

forAsiancustomers).

ThetrendfromGrouptoFITbookingsinmaturemarketsischangingatanincreasingpace

suchasinSingaporeandMalaysia.Inparticular,AirAsiaXhasfuelledthischangeinMalaysia

ConsumersstatethatAustraliantoursarerelativelymoreexpensivethanotherdestinationswhilethe

trendofshortbookingleadtimescontinues.

Therearemixedresultsforenquiriesandbookingsacrossallmajormarkets.Enquiriesandbookings

fromJapan

were

down

for

Nov

Jan

with

some

improvement

reported

for

Feb

Apr

while

France

has

experienced515%improvementacrossbothcategories.Themajorityofoperatorsarereportingno

significantchangesincancellationsandwherethishasoccurred,isduetobettereconomicstability

globally,consumersfindingcheaperpricesforproductsontheweboragentsover estimating

demand.CustomersareprogressivelymoreknowledgeableaboutAustralianproductand

consequentlytheycontinuetobepricesensitiveandrepeatedlyseekvalueformoney.

Itlookslikethemarketisbouncingbackafteratoughyearin2009.Welookforwardtoa

promising2010

OperatorsforAustralianattractionsindicatedmixedsentimentsacrossdifferentmarketsforthelast3

monthsof

enquiries,

bookings

and

cancellations.

Japan,

USA,

UK

and

Ireland

in

particular

have

shown

declineswhileChina,Korea,TaiwanandFrancehaveshowngoodgrowthacrossenquiriesand

bookings.OperatorsarenoticingincreasedbookingsinFITformanymarketshowevertheshortened

leadtimesaremakingforecastingdifficult.CompetitionhasgrownamongITOs,astheytrytomaintain

andincreasetheirmarketshare.

4.3 DomesticTourismOutlookDomestictourismcontinuedtoweakenintheSeptemberquarter2009.Asalowershareofdomestic

travelisbookedinadvance,forecastsfordomestictourismaremoredifficultthanforinbound

markets.Also,

leading

indicators

for

domestic

tourism

are

not

available

compared

to

inbound

tourism.

Overthepast18months,Australianeconomicactivityhasproventobemoreresilientthanother

worldeconomies.TheReserveBankofAustraliahasputinterestratesonholdsincethelastraterise

of0.25percentagepointsinDecember2009.

InAustralia,economicconditionshavebeenstrongerthanexpected,afteramilddownturna

yearago.Theeffectsofthefiscalstimulusonconsumerdemandhavenowfaded,but

householdfinancesarebeingsupportedbystronglabourmarketoutcomesandarecoveryin

networth.InterestratestomostborrowersnonethelessremainlowerthanaverageStatementbyGlennStevens,Governor:MonetaryPolicyDecision,2February2010.

DataontheAustralianlabourmarketindicatesthenumberofemployedpersonsinAustraliahasrisen

by1.7%fromJanuary2009toJanuary2010.Theunemploymentrateiscurrently5.3%.



15/29


16/29

16

YrendSept03 YrendSept06 YrendSept09

DomesticOvernight

TripPropensity 4.7tripsperyear 4.4tripsperyear 3.9tripsperyear

VisitorNightPropensity 18.8nightsperyear 16.9nightsperyear 14.9nightsperyear

Averagetrip

length

4.0

nights

3.9

nights

3.9

nights

AverageSpendpernight $134 $146 $164

AverageSpendpertrip $537 $564 $635

DomesticDaytrips

Trippropensity 9.0peryear 8.1peryear 8.3peryear

Averagespendpertrip $85 $96 $101

BITREdomesticaviationstatisticsfortheyearendingNovember2009indicatethatpassengerscarried

wereup0.2%overall,withthetoptenroutesup0.5%(however,otherroutesdeclined1.7%).The

currentannual

load

factor

is

79.7%

for

domestic

and

regional

passenger

traffic.

The

NVS

indicates

that

overnighttripsinvolvingairtransportweredown7.3%intheyearendingSeptember2009.

Petrolpriceshavestabilisedoverthepastyear,followingconsiderablefluctuationsin2008.The

averagepetrolpriceacrossthecountryhasdecreasedbyaroundthreecentsperlitreintheDecember

quarteragainsttheSeptemberquarter.Comparedto12monthsagothepricehasdecreasedby4%or

aroundfivecentsperlitre(AustralianAutomobileAssociation).

ABSdataonoutboundtourisminthemonthofDecember2009continuedtoshowstrongdemand

withanincreaseof14%comparedwiththesameperiodin2008.OutboundtravelintheDecember

quartergrew17%onthebackof20%increasesinOctoberandNovember.Atthecalendaryear2009,

therehas

been

an

increase

of

8%

in

short

term

resident

outbound

travel.

Outbound

destinations

both

short(NewZealand+12%,Fiji+3%,SEAsia+14%)andlonghaul(USA+15%,UK+5%,NorthWest

Europe+3%)havebeenthebeneficiariesofthisoutboundmovement.Acontributingfactoristhe

appreciationoftheAustraliandollar,whichmakesoverseastravelmoreattractive,



17/29

175. INDIVIDUALMARKETOUTLOOKSInthecalendaryear2009,inboundarrivalswereflatcomparedto2008. However,themonthof

December2009recordedaslightincrease(+6%)comparedtoDecember2008.Forthepurposesof

thisreportTAsoughtfeedbackfromoperatorsonthelevelofbookingsfortravelintheNovember,

December2009andJanuary2010andforwardbookingsfortheFebruaryApril2010period.Itis

recognisedthat

comparing

current

bookings

with

bookings

held

at

the

same

date

last

year

it

is

difficult

giventheshorterbookingtimeframes.Commentsthereforeonlyprovidearoughindicationofthe

shorttermoutlookandshouldbeusedwithcaution.

5.1 UnitedStatesTouristarrivalsfromtheUSAgrewby9%inNovember2009and19%inDecember2009comparedto

thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TourismAustraliaestimatesthatUSAarrivalsforthemonthof

January2010willbeupbyaround5%.

15%

10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un09 Jul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec09 Jan10(e)

%changeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear

ChangeinUSarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)


(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata

FeedbackfrommostsellersofAustraliaintheUSAindicatesthatenquiriesfortraveltoAustraliahave

pickedup.

ThetraditionalholidayseasonoflateNov/Decshowedaslowingofenquiriesandthenalarge

upsurgeinJan2010.Newenquiriesseemcommittedtotravelling,takinglesstimetopartwith

$sandarestillbookingaslateas13monthsbeforedeparture

Sellersnotedthereweremarkedimprovementswithfewercancellationsforthelastthreemonths

comparedtolastyear.Thetravelmarketcontinuestoimprovefromthedownturnin2008andearly

2009.Anoverallstabilisationinbusinesscorrelatestoimprovingconsumerconfidenceandimproving

employmentconditionsexceptinmanufacturing.

Sellershaveadvisedthatbookingsthroughoutthelastthreemonthswerestrongwithsomesellers

citinggrowthof20%.Thevalueofthesebookings(TTV TotalTransactionValue)hasalsoincreased

againstthesametimelastyear.

Thewholesalemarkethasreturnedtogrowthasboomersandretireesfeelmoreconfidentto

purchasetravelwhereastheretailmarketisstillfragileasconsumerslookforthesamedealstheysaw

thistimelastyear.Theleadtimeforbookingshasremainedanaveragethreeandahalfmonths.

Theunknownfactorinforwardbusinessisairfaresandwheretheywillgointhenextthreetofourmonths.Consumers,stimulatedbycompetitivefaresin2009stillhuntforthebestdeal,butfromall

indications,airfareswillnotfalltotherecordlowlevelsof2009.



18/29

18TheUSAmarketiscurrentlyinastandoffbetweenconsumerswhoarelookingforlastyearsdeals,

andatravelindustrythatdesperatelyneedtoraiseratestoprotectprofitability.Theusualtravel

marketingeffortshavenoeffectinthisenvironment,unlesstheconsumercanseeaveryclearvalue

propositiononoffer

5.2 UnitedKingdomTouristarrivalsfromtheUKgrewby5%inNovember2009andfell1%inDecember2009comparedto

thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TourismAustraliaestimatesthatJanuaryUKarrivalswillhave

beenonparwithlastyear.

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un09 Jul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec0 9 J an10(e)

%cha

ngeoverthesamemonthinthe

previousyear

ChangeinUKarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)


(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata(e) TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata

Allbutonesellerhasnotedadeclineinthenumberofenquiriesreceivedinthelastthreemonths

(NovJan).Whiletherearealargenumberofquotesbeingwritten,thereisalongperiodoftime

betweenquoteandconversion.Theresponsetomarketingcampaignshasresultedinenquiriesfor

packagesratherthanflightonly.

Thereissomevariabilityregardingconsumerbookings,withhalfofsurveyrespondentsadvisingofan

improvementinoverallbookinglevelsforthelastthreemonths,andhalfnotingadecline.The

majorityofsellersanticipateanincreaseinbookingsforthenextthreemonths(FebApr),howeverthe

rangeoftheseincreasesrangewidelybetweenlessthan5%toover25%.

TheonlydisproportionategrowthforAustraliahasbeenintheextendedstay/youthcategory

undoubtedlydrivenbyincreasednumberofstudentswithoutuniversityplacesand

professionalstakingcareerbreaksafterredundancies.

Allsellersreportedadecreaseinthelevelofcancellationsduringthesameperiodofthepreviousyear

(NovJan),towhichtheymainlyattributedreducedconsumerconcernabouttheeconomicsituationas

wellasincreasedconsumerconfidenceregardingjobsecurity.

Thereisageneralsenseofcautiousconfidenceregarding2010;UKconsumersare,however,more

priceconsciousparticularlyregardingtheAUDexchangeratewhichhasresultedinanincreaseinthe

salesofpackageddeals.Thetrendforshorterleadtimescontinues.Inordertoreducecostssome

airlineshavecutcapacityonAustralianflights.

Leadtimeappearsalittleshorterwithcustomersdelayingfinalpurchasedecisionsbutthis

hasstarted

to

improve

again

as

confidence

in

the

economic

outlook

returns

ThereisalsoageneralelectionrequiredintheUKbyJune2010whichwillleaveconsumerscautious

aroundspending.



19/29

195.3 NewZealandTouristarrivalsfromNewZealandincreasedby1%inNovember2009andfell1%inDecember2009

comparedtothesamemonthsin2008.TAestimatesthatNewZealandarrivalswillbeonparwithlast

yearforthemonthofJanuary2010.

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Jan09 Feb09 Mar09 Apr09 May09 Jun09 Jul09 Aug09 Sep09 Oct09 Nov09 Dec0 9 Ja n10(e)


ChangeinNZarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)



ArrivalsfromNewZealandinthecalendaryear2009wereflatagainst2008butperformedaboveTFC

forecastsendingtheyearwith1.11millionfromNZ.Whilstleisurearrivalsarestable,thedeclineinthe

businesssectorisbringingoverallvisitornumbersdownandthisisunlikelytoreturnintheshortterm.

TheNewZealandeconomyandconsumerconfidenceisbeginningtostabilisefollowingthetechnical

endtotherecession,whichwillhelpimproveconsumersentimenttospendontravel.Overall,NZ

internationaldeparturesdeclinedby3%in2009.AsimilartrendwasfoundinthePacificregion,where

departuresweredown3.5%overthesameperiod.

Aggressively

priced

trans

Tasman

airfares

from

both

low

cost

and

legacy

carriers

are

stimulating

the

marketandcontinuetopositionAustraliawell.Twotrendsseenearlyin2009continue.Firstly,

consumersarewaitingforthebestdeals,creatingshorterleadtimesandmakingforecastingdifficult

forindustry.Secondly,thesecheapfaresaredrivingcomponentbuying,withconsumersbuyingair

nowandlandlater,makingdistributionchallengingtocaptureandproductdifficulttoforecast.

IndustryreportsthatenquirylevelsforAustraliaareuponsametimelastyear.Heavypromotion

duringthistraditionaltimefortheUK/Europeappearstohavedeclinedinenquiries/sales.However,

industrysourcespredictareboundinlonghaultravelasconsumerswhoputofftravellastyearare

nowlookingtotravelin2010.KeydriversforAustraliaincludeproximity,priceandincreasedinterest

aroundspecialevents especiallytheatre/sport.

TraveltoAustraliacontinuestohaveveryshortleadtimesasconsumersareattractedbyaggressive

advertisingandcompetitivepricedeals.

BookingleadtimesforAustraliacontinuetoshortenassavvyconsumerswaitforthe

'best'orlastminutedeals particularlyinshorthaultravel

5.4 GermanyTouristarrivalsfromGermanyincreasedbyaround10%inbothNovember2009andDecember2009

comparedtothesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TourismAustraliaestimatessimilargrowthin

Germanarrivals

for

the

month

of

January

2010.



20/29

20

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan0 9 F eb0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un0 9 J ul0 9 A ug0 9 S ep0 9 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec0 9 J an10(e)


ChangeinGermanarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)



Allbutonerespondentnotedanimprovementinthenumberofenquiriesandbookingsreceivedin

thelastthreemonths(NovJan).Thereissomevariabilityregardingconsumerbookingpatterns,with

somerespondentsnotingthatconsumersarestillbookingatthelastminute,whileothersnotethat

bookingleadtimesareincreasing(thisisapositiveconsumerindicatorinthismarket).Acommon

threadthroughoutthefeedbackisthatindividual,FITbookingsareperformingbetterthangroup

bookings.Allrespondents,butone,notednochangeinthelevelofcancellationsduringthesame

periodofthepreviousyear(NovJan).

Halfofrespondentsanticipateamarginalincreaseof5%onbookingsforFebruarytoAprilwithsome

notingthatperformanceisalreadyupon2009levels.Thereisageneralsenseofcautiousconfidence

regarding2010.Germanconsumersarenowmorepriceconscious,withothercheaperlonghaul

destinationsrepresentingathreattoAustralia.SomeairfaredealscurrentlyinthemarketforAustralia

couldhelpaddressthepricecompetitionanddriveconversion.TheeconomicsituationinGermanyis

stillholdingpeoplebackfromtravellingtoAustralia,butbookingsarestillbeingmade(withshorter

leadtimes).

5.5 FranceTouristarrivalsfromFranceincreasedbyaround20%inbothNovember2009andDecember2009

comparedtothesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesslightlylowergrowth(+10%)in

FrencharrivalsforthemonthofJanuary2010.

30%

20%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Jan09 Fe b09 M ar09 A pr09 May09 J un09 Jul09 Aug09 Se p09 O ct09 N ov09 De c0 9 J an10 (e)


ChangeinFrencharrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)



Allrespondentsnotedanimprovement,albeitsmall,inthenumberofenquiriesreceivedinthelast

threemonths(NovJan),andallrespondentsreportedanincreaseinbookingscomparedtothesame



21/29

21threemonthsofthepreviousyear.Acoupleofrespondentsnotedthatthetrendforlastminute

bookingswasstillpresent,probablyduetotheFrenchconsumerstillbeingcautiousgiventheGFC.

Respondentsnotednochangeinthelevelofcancellationsduringthesameperiod.Thereissome

variabilityregardingconsumersbudgetswithsomerespondentsreportingthatconsumersare

challengingprices(doingpricechecks,onlineandwithotheroperators),whileothersreportincreased

personalholidaybudgets.

Themajorityofrespondentsanticipateanincreaseofupto10%inbookingsforFebruarytoAprilwith

somenotingthatperformanceisalreadyahead,andthereisageneralsenseofcautiousconfidence

regarding2010.Potentialroomforimprovementsexistsasthereisstilladelaybetweenenquiriesand

bookingconversion.

5.6 CanadaTouristarrivalsfromCanadafellby9%inNovember2009butgrew9%inDecember2009comparedto

thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatCanadianarrivalswillbeonparwithlastyear

forthe

month

of

January

2010.

20%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%


%cha

ngeove

rthesamemonthinthepreviousyear

ChangeinCanadianarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)



SellersinCanadanotedthatenquirieswereimprovingasagentsfocusedontraining,newbrochures

andonlinecapabilitiesincreasingcoverageofAustralianproduct.Therehasbeennochangein

cancellationsforthelastthreemonthsonthesameperiodlastyear.

Theuseofwebinarshasproventobeverysuccessful.Wehavehadrecordnumbersoverthepastfew

months,where

they

are

conducted

for

the

agent

and

also

clients.

The

purpose

is

to

create

awareness

of

travellingtoAustraliaandweareseeingthelevelsofenquiriesturningintobookings

Sellershavenotedmixedresultswithhalfadvisinganimprovementaround10%intheoveralllevelof

bookingsforthelastthreemonthsandtheremainingsellersnotingsmalldeclines(15%).Lookingto

forwardbookings,mostsellershaveindicatedsteadyincreases.Theratesandmarginsaredownon

previousyearshoweverbookingsareshowingmorepassengersandthusrealistictargetshavebeen

set.TheFITmarketisholdingsteadywhilegroupenquiriesandbookingshaveincreased.Some

interesthasalsobeenseenintheweddingsandhoneymoongroup.TheBoomersegmentisdownon

highsexperiencedin2008.

Canadadoes

not

seem

to

have

been

affected

as

badly

as

the

US

with

the

economic

downturn

of

last

year.Thevalueofourbookingsremainconstantandbookingsaregenerallyfortravelatleastthreeto

sixmonthsinadvance



22/29

22ThereisstillplentyofbusinesstoAustraliaoutthere.Howeveryouneedtobecreativetofind

andsecurenewclients

5.7 IrelandTourist

arrivals

from

Ireland

fell

by

around

15%

in

both

November

and

December

2009

compared

to

thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatIrisharrivalswillbeonparorslightlydown

forthemonthofJanuary2010.

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


%cha

ngeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear

ChangeinIrisharrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)



Allsellershavenotedanimprovementinthenumberofenquiriesreceivedinthelastthreemonths

(NovJan),althoughthereportedimprovementlevellargelyvariesbetweenrespondents(fromless

than5%toover25%).AllsellersalsoreportedanincreaseinbookingsforNovJancomparedtothe

samethreemonthsofthepreviousyear,butagainwithvaryinglevelsofreportedincreases. Review

ofresponsesonbookingsforthenextthreemonths(FebApr)revealedthatsellersareallexpectingincreases.AnincreaseinbookingswasreportedbythosegoingonaWorkingHolidayandalsothose

recentlymaderedundant,withrequestsforonewaytickets(oropenreturn).

Nearlyallsellersnotedthatthetrendforlastminutebookingswasstillpresent,withIrishconsumers

lookingfordealsparticularlyonairfares.

Allsellersnotednochangeinthelevelofcancellationscomparedtothesameperiodlastyear.

5.8 JapanTouristarrivalsfromJapanfellby23%inNovember2009andfellby6%inDecember2009compared

tothesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatJapanesearrivalswillbeonparorslightly

downforthemonthofJanuary2010.



23/29

23

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

10%


%cha


ChangeinJapanesearrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)



MostmajortravelagenciesindicatedthatpackagebusinesstoAustraliaespeciallyHoneymoon

productswasmaintainedoverthelastthreemonths.However,theoverallpackagetrendcontinuedto

beverypricedrivenandANKINTANoriented(cheap,close,shortstay)duetoongoingeconomic

issues.TheoutlookforFebMayisbetterhoweverJuneonwardsisstillsoft.

Groupdepartmentsofkeytravelagenciesreportedtravelbysomeschoolgrouptripswhichwere

postponedduetotheoutbreakofH1N1inJapanduringtheschoolpeakseasonlastyear.

ThereisadefinitetrendtowardsFITstyleoftravel,andpurposedriventravelguidedbyspecial

interestsofconsumers.Therehasalsobeenareportedincreaseindirecttoproductbookings.

MostmajortravelagenciesreportedthatupuntilMarch2010airlineseatshavebeendifficultto

secureduetohighskiseasondemandbyAustralianstravellingtoJapan.ItisexpectedthatJapanese

outboundbusinesstoAustraliawillbeimpactedbyhighinbounddemandforthenextcoupleof

months.Thereintroductionoftheairlinefuelsurchargemayaffectfuturevisitationevenmoreasconsumerscontinuetoshifttocheaper,shortdistancesandshortstaydestinations.

5.9 ChinaTouristarrivalsfromChinagrewby8%inNovember2009butfell2%inDecember2009comparedto

thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatChinesearrivalswillfallbyaround25%for

themonthofJanuary2010.ThisreflectsthelatertimingofChineseNewYearthisyearandcombined

Jan/Febthemarketshouldseegrowth.

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


%cha


ChangeinChinesearrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)





24/29

24TheChinesesellersofAustraliahavehadmixedresultsonenquiriesforthelastthreemonths.Sellers

haveadvisedofpositiveenquiriesforChineseNewYearwhilethereisahigherdemandforFIT.The

decreaseinenquiriescanbemarkeddowntotravellersfocusingonnewanduniqueproducts.

Themajorityofsellershavenotednochangesincancellationsoverthelastthreemonthswhileasmall

fewhavenotedhighincreasesincancellations.

Cancellationsduetolessoptimisticeconomicsituationwhilesomeconsumerstendto save

moneyandselectshorthaultoursinAsia

Thepriceistoohighthisyearwhichisbeyondsomeconsumers'expectations

Thereissomeconsistencyregardingconsumerbookingsasmanysellershaveadvisedofdeclinesof

morethan10%overthepastthreemonthscomparedtothepreviousyear.BookingsforChineseNew

Yearcomparedto2009havebeenaffectedbythestrongerAUDandthecurrenteconomicconditions.

Sellersareoptimisticthatbookingswillincreaseandthemajorityoftheseats(includingcharterand

supplementaryservices)willbefilled.

Increasinglyconsumers

have

more

product

knowledge

of

Australia

and

while

the

economic

situation

continuestoimproveandconsumerdesireforoverseastravelwillincrease,strongcompetitionand

heavypromotionswhichfocusondiscountpriceswillinfluenceconsumersdecisionsonholiday

destinations.

Morecompetition,evenforsamepricerangeproducts,fromUSA,CanadaorDubai

Australiaproductsdonothavecompetitiveedgeinprice,especiallyduringpeakseason

Forwardbookingsforthenextthreemonthsaremorepositivewithmoresellersadvisingofincreases

inthemarket.

5.10 HongKongTouristarrivalsfromHongKonggrewby6%inNovember2009and3%inDecember2009comparedto

thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatHongKongarrivalswillfallbyaround30%for

themonthofJanuary2010.ThisreflectsthelatertimingofChineseNewYearthisyearhoweverJan

/Febcombinedshouldbeatleastonparwithlastyear.

60%

40%

20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


%cha

ngeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyea

r

ChangeinHongKongarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)



TheHong

Kong

sellers

of

Australia

are

reporting

mixed

enquiry

and

booking

levels

for

the

last

three

months.TheChineseNewYearperiodin2010isnotpredictedtobeasfruitfulasJanuarylastyear.

Bookingleadtimeisshortwithlatebookingsincreasing.Thisisparticularlytrueforgrouptravellers



25/29


26/29

26TouristarrivalsfromSingaporegrewby11%inNovember2009and7%inDecember2009compared

tothesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatSingaporeanarrivalswillfallbyaround

15%forthemonthofJanuary2010.ThisreflectsthelatertimingofChineseNewYearthisyear

howevercombinedJan/Febshouldseegrowth.

20%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%



ChangeinSingaporeanarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)



SingaporeansellersofAustraliahavereportedpositiveresultsandanoverallimprovementinenquiries

forthelastquarter2009.Therewerefewercancellationsoverthesameperiod.WhiletheH1N1crisis

midyeardiscouragedtravellersmostsellersquotedbetween5and20%fewercancellationsoverthe

lastthreemonths.TravellersarestillpreparedtopayforaholidayinAustralia,eventhoughcurrency

fluctuationsandhightaxesareaturnoff.Nonetheless,somecancellationshaveoccurreddueto

airlineseatconstraints.

SingaporeansellersofAustraliaadvisestronggrowthinenquiriesforthelastthreemonthsas

economicconditions

improve.

Bookings

over

the

last

three

months

were

flat

as

some

sellers

reported

goodgrowthwhileothersrecordedslightdeclines.Thereareslightimprovementsinleadtime

bookingsforpeaktimetravelhowevertrendstowaitforlatelowpricesremain.

Despitethechallenges,Australiawasstillverypopularforyearendvacationswithlengthofstay

increasingfromsixtoninedaysespeciallyforfamiliesandselfdrive.Thistrendresultedinhigher

spendsandbetteryields.Therewasahigherdemandforlandpackagesasmanyconsumershad

ticketspurchasedthroughearlierpromotionsortravelfairs.Therewerealsoconsumerswhobooked

atthelastminute.

Consumersareincreasinglybetterinformed,oftenmeetingwiththeirtravelagentarmedwith

informationor

brochures

collected

at

past

travel

fairs.

There

are

also

indications

of

growing

trends

for

venturingintoregionalAustraliaandtryingoutmoreadventurousactivitiessuchaswatersportse.g.

surfingandkayaking.

TheagentsrequestedthatAustraliacontinuetoruncampaignswhichattractpotentialconsumers;

theyalsoappreciatethesupportofAustraliansuppliersatvariousNATAS/consumershowsas

ultimatelyspeakingtoanAussieispreferred.Also,therearesuggestionsforAustraliato

differentiateitsproductsmorefromotherWesterndestinationsandhaveexperiencesthatare

sustainableandcancreateacontinuousinterestinthedestination.

5.13 MalaysiaTouristarrivalsfromMalaysiagrewby3%inNovember2009and15%inDecember2009comparedto

thesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatMalaysianarrivalswillfallbyaround15%for



27/29

27themonthofJanuary2010.ThisreflectsthelatertimingofChineseNewYearthisyearhowever

combinedJan/Febshouldseesomegrowthoverlastyear.

20%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


%cha


ChangeinMalaysianarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)



Generalenquiresweremuchthesameas2008howevergrouppackageenquiresincreasedforthe

yearendandChineseNewYear.AgentsalsoreportedanincreasingtrendinFITprograms.

Cancellationswereunchangedforthesameperiodbutinoneinstanceconsumersfoundbetterdeals

ontheinternetandcancelledtheirbookingwiththeagent.

Bookingsweredown,insomecasessignificantly,forthethreemonthstoDecember.However,thisis

contrarytoactualarrivalswhichremainstrong.Trendsarehardtodetermineforthenextthree

monthsbutagentsbelievetheconsumeriswaitingforthemidMarchMATTAfairwhengooddealsare

usuallyannounced.

Bookingleadtimesremainshorthoweverairlinesareimposingconditionsthatgrouptoursmustbefinalisedonemonthprior.Australiashighexchangeratewasalsoraisedinthefeedbackandsomefelt

itmayimpactonbookingsinthefuture.Consumersstillcontinuetoseekgoodvaluepackages.

Familiescontinuetobethefocusfortravelbutlowcostcarriersofferingcheapfaresareattracting

youngertravellers.Boththesegroupsareverypricesensitive.

Customersunderstandtheconceptof'whatyoupayiswhatyouget'.Valueisdependenton

customersperception

5.14 IndiaTouristarrivalsfromIndiawereonparinNovember2009butgrew15%inDecember2009compared

tothesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatIndianarrivalswillfallslightlyinJanuary

2010.



28/29

28

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Jan0 9 Fe b0 9 M ar0 9 A pr0 9 M ay0 9 J un0 9 Ju l0 9 Au g0 9 S ep09 O ct0 9 N ov0 9 D ec09 Jan10(e)%changeoverthesamemonthinthepreviousyear

ChangeinIndianarrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)


(e)TourismAustraliaestimatesonpartialdata

SomeagentssawasignificantincreaseinenquiriesparticularlyforhoneymoonandVFRtravellersfor

thelastquarter2009.Agentswhonotedadeclinecommentedthatstudentissuesandsafetywerekey

concerns.EnquiresareoriginatingfromtheVFRandhoneymoonsegmentswithleisureandMICEalso

increasing.

Howevertherewasnochangeinthelevelofcancellationsoverthesameperiodlastyear.

Bookingresultsweremixedwithverylittlechangereportedbythemajorityofagentswithonlyafew

agentsreportingstronggrowth(25%).Allcustomersegmentsareseenintheseincreasesbutyouth,

familiesandVFRareparticularlyflourishing.Consumersareseekinggoodvaluepackagesandknow

whattheywantsonewdestinationsneedtobepromoted.Bookingleadtimeremainsunchanged.

Thecontinuedstudentissuesareimpactingconsumersentimentwhilstexchangeratesandhigh

airfaresarealsobelievedtobeaffectingbothenquiriesandbookingsforthedestination.

Peopleare

still

travelling

to

Australia

but

try

and

avoid

Melbourne,

which

has

been

in

the

newsforthestudentissues

Despitethis,alltheagentsnotedthatAustraliaisawonderfuldestinationtopromoteandsell.Client

satisfactionisalwayshigh.

5.15 TaiwanTouristarrivalsfromTaiwanincreasedbyaround5%inbothNovember2009andDecember2009

comparedtothesamemonthsinthepreviousyear.TAestimatesthatTaiwanesearrivalswillfallby

around15%

for

the

month

of

January

2010.

This

reflects

the

later

timing

of

Chinese

New

Year

this

year,andthatcombinedJan/Febwillbeslightlydownonlastyearduetothelackofcharters.



29/29

29

40%

20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%


%cha


ChangeinTaiwanesearrivalstoAustraliabycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)



TherehasbeenaclearsignofrecoveryandreturningofconsumerconfidenceintheNorthAsiaRegion

towardstheendof2009withTaiwanrecordingpositivevisitorarrivalsgrowthincalendaryear2009.

MostTaiwanesesellershavenotedincreasesinenquiriesforthelastthreemonthsespeciallyforthe

SydneyNewYearsEvefireworks.TheforecastoftheChineseNewYearseasonispositiveandstrong

demandinoutboundtravelisexpected.

Themajorityofsellersalsoreportedanincreaseinbookingsoverthelastthreemonthsandmoving

forwardtothenextthreemonths.However,thisiscontrarytoactualarrivalswhichreflectweaker

trends.Sellershavenotedthatconsumerconfidenceisstrongerandhavinganimpactonbookingsbut

thefluctuatingexchangeratehasimpactedconsumerleadtimebookings.

Groupsseekingcheapmonoitineraries

Mostsellersnotedaslightdecreasetonochangeinoverallcancellations.

5.16 OtherMarkets(outsidetheabove15)Onefifthoftotalarrivalsin2009camefrommarketsoutsidethetop15.Arrivalsformarketsoutside

theabove15marketsincreasedby6%inbothNovember2009and14%inDecember2009compared

tothesamemonthsinthepreviousyearalbeitformsmallbases.TAestimatesthatarrivalsfromother

marketswillbeupbyaround5%inJanuary2010.Thestrongestgrowthmarkets(outsidetheTop15)

includeIndonesia,Italy,ThailandandBrazil.

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%


%cha


ChangeinarrivalstoAustraliaformarketsoutsideAustralia'stop15marketsbycalendarmonthcomparedtothesamemonthinthepreviousyear(%)



gmm february 2010

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