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GMG Market Assessment Methodology

Green Mini-Grids Market Development Program

SEforALL Africa Hub

African Development Bank

Part 1: Evaluation of Methodologies and Best Practices Available to assess GMG Potential April 2017

Prepared by

UNEP

PREFACE

This paper, and subsequent papers in the Green Mini-Grid Market Development Programme (GMG MDP) document VHULHVLVDPDUNHWDVVHVVPHQWIRUJUHHQPLQLJULGVIRUUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQLQ0R]DPELTXH7KHVHDUHPLQLJULGVSRZHUHGE\UHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\UHVRXUFHV±VRODUUDGLDWLRQZLQGK\GURSRZHURUELRPDVV±HLWKHUH[FOXVLYHO\RULQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKGLHVHOJHQHUDWLRQ

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List of Acronyms

$'% $VLDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQNATP Ability to Pay%1() %ORRPEHUJ1HZV(QHUJ\)LQDQFHCDM Clean Development MechanismCEIMAT Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnologicas(&5((( (&2:$6&HQWUHIRU5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\DQG(QHUJ\(I¿FLHQF\ESG Environmental, Social and Governance Database(8(, (XURSHDQ8QLRQ(QHUJ\,QLWLDWLYH(8-5& (XURSHDQ8QLRQ-RLQW5HVHDUFK&HQWUHFAO Food and Agriculture Organisation*+* *UHHQKRXVH*DVHVGIS geographic information systemGRI Global Reporting InitiativeIEA International Energy Agency,5(1$ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\$JHQF\IRRI International Rice Research InstituteJAFTA Japan Forest Technology AssociationJICA Japan International Cooperation AgencyLCOE Levelised Cost of Electricity0$)) 0LQLVWU\RI$JULFXOWXUH)LVKHULHVDQG)RRG8QLWHG.LQJGRPMDP Market Development Program1,6 1HWZRUN,QIRUPDWLRQ6HUYLFH15(/ 1DWLRQDO5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\/DERUDWRU\3$*( 3RWHQWLDO$UHDRI*ULG([WHQVLRQREE Red Electrica de EspanaSDG Sustainable Development GoalSEFA Sustainable Energy Fund for AfricaSE4ALL Sustainable Energy for All 6+6 6RODU+RPH6\VWHP81'(6$ 8QLWHG1DWLRQV'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFDQG6RFLDO$IIDLUV81(3 8QLWHG1DWLRQV(QYLURQPHQW3URJUDPPHWEO World Economic Outlook

1GMG MDP Document Series #3

Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3

1. INTRODUCTION TO THE GREEN MINI GRID 7 MARKET DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME 3URMHFWFRQWH[W *0*DQG$IULFDFRQWH[W 5XUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQQLQJ (OHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQV

2. METHODOLOGIES 12 ,GHQWL¿FDWLRQRIPHWKRGRORJLHV 0HWKRGRORJ\W\SHV 0HWKRGRORJ\VXPPDULHV 2WKHUGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRROV

3. METHODOLOGY ANALYSIS 28 $VVHVVPHQWFULWHULD 5HOHYDQFHWRVWDNHKROGHUV 5HOHYDQFHDQGTXDOLW\RIRXWSXWV 'DWDUHTXLUHPHQWV +DQGOLQJRIGDWDSDXFLW\ 6RIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWV 5REXVWQHVV 2SHQQHVVDQGHDVHRIXVH ,QWHURSHUDELOLW\ZLWKRWKHUSODQQLQJPHWKRGRORJLHVRUWRROV &RVWDQGOHYHORIWUDLQLQJUHTXLUHG

4. CONCLUSION 48

5. ANNEX. METHODOLOGY SUMMARY SHEETS 50

GMG MDP Document Series #3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The African Development Bank has engaged the services of the Carbon Trust, UNEP and ECREEE to assess WKHSRWHQWLDOIRUJUHHQPLQLJULGVLQ¿YH$IULFDQFRXQWULHV7KHHQJDJHPHQWUHTXLUHPHQWVLQFOXGHGWKHGH¿QLWLRQRIDPHWKRGRORJ\WRDVVHVVWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUJUHHQPLQLJULGVZLWKWKDWPHWKRGRORJ\WREHVXEVHTXHQWO\XVHGWRSURGXFHUHSRUWV DQDO\VLQJ WKHPLQLJULG SRWHQWLDO LQ WKH ¿YH FRXQWULHV7KRVH UHSRUWVZLOO IRFXVRQ WKH SK\VLFDO SRWHQWLDO IRUgreen mini-grids in each country, and provide important information to local policymakers and to potential local and LQWHUQDWLRQDOLQYHVWRUVLQWKH*UHHQ0LQL*ULGVHFWRU

7KH¿UVWSKDVHRIWKHHQJDJHPHQWFRYHUHGE\WKLVUHSRUWFRQVLVWHGRIWKHLGHQWL¿FDWLRQDQGDQDO\VLVRIH[LVWLQJtools and/or research methodologies being used to evaluate, promote and support RE in Africa. The need to promote DQGVXSSRUW5(KDVJDLQHGVLJQL¿FDQWDWWHQWLRQRYHUWKHODVWGHFDGHDQGKDVUHVXOWHGLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIPXOWLSOHWRROVE\DZLGHUDQJHRIDFWRUVLQFOXGLQJJRYHUQPHQWVGHYHORSPHQWLQVWLWXWLRQVUHVHDUFKFHQWUHVDQGFRUSRUDWLRQV

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• Expert knowledge. 7KH&DUERQ7UXVW81(3DQG(&5(((DQGWKHH[SHUWVZRUNLQJRQWKLVDVVLJQPHQWKDYHFRQVLGHUDEOHH[SHULHQFHLQSURPRWLQJDQGDVVHVVLQJUHQHZDEOHHQHUJLHVDQGHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQJOREDOO\HVSHFLDOO\LQ GHYHORSLQJ UHJLRQV 81(3 IRU LQVWDQFH KDV GHYHORSHG WKH 6:(5$ 6RODU DQG :LQG (QHUJ\ 5HVRXUFH$VVHVVPHQWLQLWLDWLYHZKLOHVXSSRUWLQJPLQLJULGGHYHORSPHQWLQ$IULFDDVDVHQLRUSDUWQHURIWKH6XVWDLQDEOH(QHUJ\IRU$OO6($//LQLWLDWLYH(&5(((KDVGHYHORSHGWKH(&2:5(;(&2:$62EVHUYDWRU\IRU5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\DQG(QHUJ\(I¿FLHQF\SODWIRUPWRPDSUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\UHVRXUFHVSURMHFWVDQGVWDNHKROGHUVZKLOHFRQWLQXLQJWRGULYHGDWDFROOHFWLRQLQWKH(&2:$6UHJLRQ7KURXJKRXUSURIHVVLRQDOQHWZRUNRIH[SHUWVZHKDYHLGHQWL¿HGVHYHUDOH[LVWLQJWRROVDQGPHWKRGRORJLHV

• Literature review and desk-based research.$QH[WHQVLYHUHYLHZRIDFDGHPLFMRXUQDOVDQGRWKHUNQRZOHGJHZDVFRQGXFWHGWKURXJK3UR4XHVW*RRJOH6FKRODUDQGRWKHUVRXUFHVWRLGHQWLI\DEURDGQXPEHURIWRROVWKDWKDGEHHQDSSOLHGLQ$IULFDDQGRWKHUSDUWVRIWKHZRUOG

7KHDQDO\VLVLGHQWL¿HGDQXPEHURILPSRUWDQWWRROVWKDWDUHFXUUHQWO\EHLQJXVHGWRSURPRWH5(LQ$IULFDMany are decision-support tools, developed by different stakeholders that are useful for practitioners during the planning DQGLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIPLQLJULGSURMHFWV7KHVHLQFOXGHWRROVIRUUHVRXUFHDVVHVVPHQWWHFKQLFDOGHVLJQDQGDQDO\VLVDQG ¿QDQFLDOPRGHOOLQJ2WKHU WRROV DUH VWULFWO\ VSHDNLQJ QRW WRROV EXWPHWKRGRORJLHV DV WKH\ LQYROYH FRQGXFWLQJRSSRUWXQLW\DVVHVVPHQWVDQGRWKHUDQDO\WLFDOZRUNDLPHGDWDQVZHULQJWKHTXHVWLRQ³Given the current conditions, how

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This paper focuses on these opportunity assessment methodologies, since they are more directly relevant than the decision-support tools for assessing the potential for green mini-grids. 7KHDQDO\VLVLGHQWL¿HGDWRWDORIWZHOYHPHWKRGRORJLHVWKDWDUHEHLQJXVHGWRSURPRWH5(DQGFODVVL¿HVWKHPLQWRWKUHHEURDGJURXSV7DEOH7KH¿UVWWZRW\SHVDUHEDVHGRQ VRPH W\SHRI JHRJUDSKLF LQIRUPDWLRQ V\VWHP *,6ZKLFK LV XVHG WR FRQGXFW VSDWLDO DQDO\VLV WRHVWLPDWHWKHFRVWRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQWKURXJKDOWHUQDWLYHVROXWLRQVLHJULGH[WHQVLRQPLQLJULGDQGLQGLYLGXDOKRPHV\VWHPV7HQRIWKHWZHOYHPHWKRGRORJLHVDUHEDVHGRQ*,67KHWZRPHWKRGRORJLHVLQWKHWKLUGFDWHJRU\DUHQRWEDVHGRQ*,6

GIS-based methodologies are either supply-led or demand-led:

• Supply-led methodologies assess the suitability of mini-grids through a direct measure of the techno-economic FRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRIHDFKRSWLRQXVXDOO\EDVHGRQWKHOHYHOLVHGFRVWRIHQHUJ\IRUHDFKWHFKQRORJ\([DPSOHVLQFOXGHWKRVHGHYHORSHGE\WKH(&-RLQW5HVHDUFK&RPPLVVLRQDQGWKH.7+5R\DO,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\LQ6WRFNKROP7KHODWWHUZDVXWLOLVHGLQWKHQHZO\SXEOLVKHG81'(6$HOHFWULFLW\DFFHVVWRRO

• Demand-led methodologies focus on the level of energy consumption required by each settlement, taking into DFFRXQWWKHQHHGVRIVHUYLFHIDFLOLWLHVVXFKDVKRVSLWDOVDQGVFKRROVWRSULRULWLVHVHWWOHPHQWVIRUHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ([DPSOHV LQFOXGH WKRVH GHYHORSHG E\ ,QQRYDWLRQ (QHUJLH 'HYHORSSHPHQW DQG DSSOLHG WR QXPHURXV$IULFDQFRXQWULHVDQGE\WKH-DSDQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RRSHUDWLRQ$JHQF\DQGDSSOLHGLQ&DPERGLD

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Table ES1. List of methodologies examined

Name Author(s)

GIS supported, supply-led methodologies

A GIS-based cost comparison of solar PV, mini-K\GURGLHVHODQGJULGH[WHQVLRQIRU$IULFD

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GIS supported, demand-led methodologies

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GIS supported, demand-led, grid-extension focused methodologies

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Non-GIS methodologies

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The analysis considered a range of input parameters to identify the common factors utilised by most methodologies. 7KHVHSDUDPHWHUVZHUHFDWHJRULVHGLQWR¿YHJURXSV5HQHZDEOH1HWZRUNDQG(QHUJ\'HPRJUDSKLF3ROLF\3ROLWLFDODQG)LQDQFLDO(FRQRPLF

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The analysis found no real convergence on the approaches of these opportunity assessment methodologies. $ZLGHYDULDWLRQZDVIRXQGLQWKHDSSURDFKDQGTXDOLW\RIWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVH[DPLQHGZLWKGLIIHUHQWDSSURDFKHVDQGFRQVLGHUDWLRQVEHLQJWULDOOHGRUGHPRQVWUDWHG)RUH[DPSOHIRXUPDLQPHWKRGVZHUHXVHGWRPLWLJDWHWKHNH\LVVXHRIGDWDSDXFLW\DGHVLJQLQJWKHPHWKRGRORJ\DURXQGDYDLODEOHGDWDVRXUFHVEXVLQJROGHUGDWDVRXUFHVFHVWLPDWLQJRUH[WUDSRODWLQJGDWDIURPRWKHUFRXQWULHVVWXGLHVRUWKHRUHWLFDOYDOXHVDQGGVWDNHKROGHUFRQVXOWDWLRQV0RVWFRPPRQZDVWRXVHDSSUR[LPDWHYDOXHVVXFKDVFRVWHVWLPDWHVVRPHWLPHVXWLOLVLQJVWDNHKROGHUFRQVXOWDWLRQVRU WRXVHROGGDWDIRUGDWDVHWVRUWRGHVLJQDURXQGWKHVHVRXUFHVLHFRQGXFWWKHDVVHVVPHQWZLWKRXWWKHSDUWLFXODUGDWD$QRWKHUPHWKRGXWLOLVHGE\WKH+DQRL,QVWLWXWHRI(QHUJ\ZDVWRXVHPLVVLQJJULGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGSRSXODWLRQGDWDSDUDPHWHUVDV YDULDEOHV7KH OHYHOLVHG FRVWVRI HQHUJ\RI WKHGLIIHUHQW HOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQVZHUH WKHQ VKRZQRYHU D VHOHFWHGUDQJHRISRSXODWLRQGHQVLW\DQGGLVWDQFHWRWKHJULGYDOXHV7KLVDOORZHGWKHFRVWVWREHIRXQGGHVSLWHWKHODFNRIGDWDDOWKRXJKWKHPLVVLQJVSDWLDOLQSXWVPHDQWWKDWWKHPDSSLQJRIWKHRXWSXWZDVQRWSRVVLEOH

The second deliverable of this project is the “creation or choice of an opportunity assessment methodology in order to generate comparable data across countries”. 7KHVHFRQGSKDVHZLOOEXLOGKHDYLO\RQWKH¿QGLQJVRIWKLVUHSRUW7KHDQDO\VLVLQGLFDWHVWKDWWKHUHLVFOHDUVFRSHIRUFRPELQLQJYDULRXVDVSHFWVRIWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVH[DPLQHGWRGHYHORSDWHPSODWHPHWKRGRORJ\WKDWFDQEHXVHGWRDVVHVVWKHSRWHQWLDORIPLQLJULGVLQUXUDODUHDVDFURVV$IULFD

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1. INTRODUCTION TO THE GREEN MINI GRID MARKET DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME

1.1 PROJECT CONTEXT

7KH$IULFDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQN¶V*UHHQ0LQL*ULGV0DUNHW'HYHORSPHQW3URJUDPPH*0*0'3aims to foster DFFHVVWRHOHFWULFLW\DFURVV$IULFDE\SURPRWLQJWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIJUHHQPLQLJULGV*0*VZKHUHWKH\DUHWHFKQLFDOO\DQGHFRQRPLFDOO\DEHWWHURSWLRQWKDQH[WHQVLRQRIWKHPDLQJULG

7RDVVHVVWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUJUHHQPLQLJULGVLQ¿YH$IULFDQFRXQWULHVWKH%DQNKDVHQJDJHGWKHVHUYLFHVRIthe Carbon Trust, UNEP and ECREEE to (a) develop, based on best practices, a methodology to assess the physical SRWHQWLDOIRU*0*VDWWKHFRXQWU\OHYHOWKDWFDQEHDSSOLHGDFURVV$IULFDDQGEDSSO\WKHPHWKRGRORJ\LQ¿YHSLORWFRXQWULHVOHDGLQJWRWKHSURGXFWLRQRI¿YHFRXQWU\OHYHOUHSRUWVDQDO\VLQJWKHSK\VLFDOSRWHQWLDOIRUJUHHQPLQLJULGVLQHDFKFRXQWU\7KHDQDO\WLFDOZRUNDQGSLORWVIRFXVRQO\RQWKHSK\VLFDOSRWHQWLDOIRU*0*VDQGH[FOXGHRWKHUIDFWRUVVXFKDVWKHUHJXODWRU\DQG¿QDQFLDOHQYLURQPHQWVZKLFKDUHHTXDOO\LPSRUWDQWLQGHWHUPLQLQJWKHXOWLPDWHIHDVLELOLW\RIPLQLJULGV

7KH LPPHGLDWH EHQH¿FLDU\ RI WKHVHPDUNHW DVVHVVPHQWVZLOO EH WKH$IULFDQ'HYHORSPHQW %DQNZKLFKZLOO KDYH DWRROWRDVVHVV*0*SRWHQWLDODFURVV$IULFDDQGDOORZLWWRFRPSDUHDQGSULRULWL]HFRXQWULHVDQGLQWHUYHQWLRQVLQWKLVVHFWRUDFURVVWKHFRQWLQHQW ,QDGGLWLRQ WKHSURMHFWZLOOSURYLGHQDWLRQDOJRYHUQPHQWVDQGXWLOLWLHVZLWKDQHQKDQFHGmethodology to assess the potential for mini-grid technologies in their countries, and inform their planning process DQG HOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ VWUDWHJLHV 7KH SURMHFW ZLOO DOVR EHQH¿W SURMHFW GHYHORSHUV DQG LQYHVWRUV E\ SURYLGLQJ WKHPZLWKUHOHYDQWLQIRUPDWLRQRQHQHUJ\VXSSO\SRWHQWLDODQGFRQVXPSWLRQFHQWUHVDQGPDUNHWV,QWKHORQJWHUPWKHSURMHFWZLOOEHQH¿WWKHSHRSOHVRI$IULFDZKRZLOOJDLQDFFHVVWRHOHFWULFLW\²DQGWKHDVVRFLDWHGKHDOWKHGXFDWLRQDQGSURGXFWLYLW\EHQH¿WV²WKURXJKWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIJUHHQPLQLJULGV

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1.2 GMG AND AFRICA CONTEXT

The Sustainable Development Goals mandate universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services by 20306'*+RZHYHUDURXQGPLOOLRQSHRSOHLQ$IULFDGRQRWKDYHDFFHVVWRHOHFWULFLW\,QWHUQDWLRQDO(QHUJ\$JHQF\HVWLPDWHIRUDQGZLWKRXWDVLJQL¿FDQWLQFUHDVHLQLQYHVWPHQWWKLVQXPEHULVH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHWRDOPRVWPLOOLRQE\&RQQHFWLRQWRPLQLJULGVLVOLNHO\WREHWKHPRVWHIIHFWLYHRSWLRQIRUXSWRSHUFHQWRIWKRVHSHRSOHFXUUHQWO\ZLWKRXWDQ\FRQQHFWLRQ:RUOG(FRQRPLF2XWORRN5

7KHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRILVRODWHGFRPPXQLWLHVFDQKDYHEURDGLPSDFWVRQTXDOLW\RIOLIHEULQJLQJZLGHVSUHDGVRFLDOEHQH¿WVDQGRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQW/LJKWLQJFDQEULQJKHDOWKHGXFDWLRQDQGVDIHW\EHQH¿WVDOORZLQJpeople to study at night, reducing complications from childbirth at home in the dark, and illuminating public spaces and SDWKVLQWKHFRPPXQLW\79DOORZVDFFHVVWRLQIRUPDWLRQDVZHOODVHQWHUWDLQPHQWDIWHUZRUNRIWHQKHOSLQJWRUHGXFHFULPHLQUXUDODUHDVVLQFHSRWHQWLDOFULPLQDOVDUHRWKHUZLVHRFFXSLHG

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5 World Energy Outlook 2011, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) / International Energy Agency (IEA), 2011


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1.3 RURAL ELECTRIFICATION PLANNING

African countries understand the importance of access to electricity in rural areas, and are putting together DFWLRQSODQVIRUUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ0DQ\FRXQWULHVKDYHVHWWKHLURZQDPELWLRXVWDUJHWVDORQJVLGHWKH6'*DQG6XVWDLQDEOH(QHUJ\IRU$OO6($//WDUJHWVRISHUFHQWHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQE\7KH0HPEHU6WDWHVRI(&2:$6IRULQVWDQFHDGRSWHGWKH(&2:$65HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\3ROLF\LQ-XO\ZKLFKLQFOXGHVWKHIROORZLQJWDUJHWV

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Yet despite these polices and targets, the high costs of RE and the lack of National and state-level planning DQGVXSSRUWKDYHOHIWKXQGUHGVRIWKRXVDQGVRIFRPPXQLWLHVXQHOHFWUL¿HGTo address these challenges, some FRXQWULHVDUHGHYHORSLQJUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQYLVLRQVDQGPDVWHUSODQV&RXQWULHVVXFKDV.HQ\D6HQHJDODQG0DOLKDYHDOVRFUHDWHGGHGLFDWHGUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQDJHQFLHVDQGUHJXODWRUVDQGDUHLQWURGXFLQJWD[UHOLHIWDULIIVDQGLQFHQWLYHVFKHPHVUHODWLQJWRGHFHQWUDOLVHGHQHUJ\

1.4 ELECTRIFICATION OPTIONS

Provision of the most cost-effective supply of electricity to remote areas depends on a comparative assessment RIWKHWKUHHPDLQHOHFWULFLW\VXSSO\RSWLRQVH[WHQVLRQRIWKHQDWLRQDOJULGPLQLJULGVDQGVWDQGDORQHV\VWHPV(DFKKDVLWVDGYDQWDJHVGHSHQGLQJRQORFDOFRQGLWLRQV7KHEHVWRSWLRQZLOOGHSHQGRQWKHQHHGVRIWKHFXVWRPHUVWREHFRQQHFWHG7KHSRWHQWLDOPDUNHWGHPDQGPXVWEHDNH\GULYHULQGHWHUPLQLQJWKHPHDQVRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ

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GRID EXTENSION

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• Transmission refers to long-distance, high-voltage lines WKDWFDUU\HOHFWULFLW\IURPODUJHFHQWUDOLVHGSRZHUVWDWLRQVWRDVLJQL¿FDQWSRSXODWLRQFHQWUHRUFRPPHUFLDORSHUDWLRQ7KHKLJKYROWDJHOLQHVJRWRORFDOWUDQVIRUPHUVWDWLRQVZKHUHWKHYROWDJHLVORZHUHGDQGWKHQFDUULHGE\DGLVWULEXWLRQQHWZRUNWRHQGXVHUV

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MINI-GRIDS

A mini-grid is a relatively small, decentralised grid built to supply a group of end-users in a remote or isolated ORFDWLRQVXFKDQLVODQGRUPRXQWDLQFRPPXQLW\0LQLJULGVFDQKDYHDFDSDFLW\UDQJLQJIURPDIHZN:WRVHYHUDO0:DOWKRXJKWKHUHLVFXUUHQWO\QRXQLYHUVDOO\UHFRJQLVHGGH¿QLWLRQRIVFDOHIRUDPLQLJULG6PDOOHUDSSOLFDWLRQVOHVVWKDQDERXWN:DUHJHQHUDOO\UHIHUUHGWRDVPLFURRUSLFRJULGV

0LQLJULGVFDQEHEXLOWXVLQJUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\VRXUFHVK\GURVRODUELRPDVVJHRWKHUPDORUZLQGRUGLHVHOgenerators, RUEHDK\EULG RI WKHVHRSWLRQV)RU JULGVZLWKRXW GLHVHO JHQHUDWRUV D EDWWHU\ V\VWHPZLOO W\SLFDOO\ EHLQFOXGHGWRVWRUHHQHUJ\IRUWLPHVZKHQWKHUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\VRXUFHW\SLFDOO\VRODULVQRWDYDLODEOH+RZHYHUEDWWHULHVLQFUHDVHWKHFRVWRIDPLQLJULGVLJQL¿FDQWO\VRWKHQHHGIRUWKHPPXVWEHZHLJKHGDJDLQVWWKHLUDIIRUGDELOLW\IRUWKHWDUJHWFXVWRPHUV7KHGHVLJQRIDPLQLJULGFDQYDU\FRQVLGHUDEO\GHSHQGLQJRQWKHVRXUFHVRIHQHUJ\DYDLODEOHDQGWKHOHYHORIGHPDQG

0LQLJULGVFDQSURYLGHDVXSSO\RIHOHFWULFLW\WRUHPRWHFRPPXQLWLHVWKDWDOORZVWKHRSHUDWLRQRIPRVWKRXVHKROGappliances, DQGFDQRIIHUVXI¿FLHQWFDSDFLW\WRSRZHUVPDOOFRPSDQLHVWKHUHE\HQDEOLQJWKHJURZWKRISURGXFWLYHDFWLYLW\The operation of a mini-grid usually involves support services such as maintenance and customer account management, ZKLFKFDQFUHDWHORFDOMREV7KHUHPD\DOVREHKHDOWKHGXFDWLRQDQGVDIHW\EHQH¿WVIURPHOHFWULFLW\VXSSOLHGWRKRVSLWDOVLQFOXGLQJYDFFLQHUHIULJHUDWLRQWRVFKRROVLQFOXGLQJFRPSXWHUVDQGIRUOLJKWLQJSXEOLFDUHDVDQGURDGV

7KHUHDUHKRZHYHUVHYHUDOEDUULHUVWRWKHZLGHULQVWDOODWLRQRIPLQLJULGVThe supply may not be as stable as WKDWRIWKHQDWLRQDOJULGZLWKPRUHIUHTXHQWSRZHURXWDJHVRUVXUJHVWKDWFDQGDPDJHDSSOLDQFHV,QDGGLWLRQWKHUHLVDKLJKLQLWLDOFDSLWDOFRVWDQGSRWHQWLDOGHYHORSHUVPD\KDYHGLI¿FXOWO\DFFHVVLQJFUHGLWIURPUHJXODUEDQNV7KHODFNRIHDUO\¿QDQFHDQGDVVRFLDWHGORQJWHUPUHSD\PHQWDUUDQJHPHQWVDUHRIWHQNH\FRQFHUQVWKDWSUHYHQW LQYHVWRUVIURPVXSSRUWLQJWKHWDNHXSRIPLQLJULGVLQ$IULFD6RPHLQVWLWXWLRQVVXFKDVWKH81DQGWKH(8UHFRJQL]HWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKLVLVVXHDQGKDYHHVWDEOLVKHGJUDQWSURJUDPVWRFRYHUPRVWRUDOORIWKHLQLWLDOLQYHVWPHQWFRVW

$QRWKHUEDUULHULVWKDWLQPRVW$IULFDQFRXQWULHVWKHUHLVDFRPPLWPHQWWRWKHH[SDQVLRQRIWKHQDWLRQDOJULG 7KLVUDLVHVWKHTXHVWLRQIRUSRWHQWLDO LQYHVWRUVDQGRSHUDWRUVRIZKDWZLOOKDSSHQ LIZKHQWKHPDLQJULGDUULYHV7KHFRQQHFWLRQRIPLQLJULGVWRWKHQDWLRQDOJULGPD\EHSRVVLEOHWKURXJKDUUDQJHPHQWVWKDWIRUH[DPSOHDOORZWKHVDOHRIadditional generation using feed-in-tariffs already established for the main grid, or supplementing generation shortfalls ZKHQUHTXLUHG+RZHYHUVXFKDFRPELQHGJULGFDQEULQJQHZHFRQRPLFDQGFRQWUDFWXDOFKDOOHQJHV7KH*RYHUQPHQWRI&DSH9HUGH LVFXUUHQWO\GLVFXVVLQJ WKLV LVVXHDV WKHQDWLRQDOJULGKDV UHDFKHGDVHWWOHPHQWSRZHUHGE\DVRODU


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STAND-ALONE SYSTEMS

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2. METHODOLOGIES

2.1 IDENTIFICATION OF METHODOLOGIES

$ZLGHUDQJHRIPHWKRGRORJLHVDQGSODQQLQJWRROVKDYHEHHQGHYHORSHGIRUYDULRXVDVSHFWVRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQand green mini-grids. 7KLVUHSRUWLVFRQFHUQHGRQO\ZLWKWKRVHPHWKRGRORJLHVWKDWDVVHVVWKHopportunity for mini-grid

development,DQGDUHDYDLODEOHDQGDSSOLFDEOHLQDQ$IULFDQFRQWH[W

0HWKRGRORJ\LVGH¿QHGLQWKHUHSRUWDVDSURFHVVWKURXJKZKLFKDQRSSRUWXQLW\DVVHVVPHQWRIWKHSRWHQWLDOfor mini-grids is carried out. 0HWKRGRORJLHV DUH WR EHGLVWLQJXLVKHG IURP ³WRROV´ZKLFKDGGUHVVRWKHU DVSHFWV RIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQQLQJVXFKDVPDSSLQJV\VWHPGHVLJQDQGRSWLPLVDWLRQDQG¿QDQFLDOVXSSRUWWRROV$PHWKRGRORJ\PD\FRQVLVWRIVHYHUDOSLHFHVRIZRUNRUUHSRUWVSURYLGLQJWKHXQGHUO\LQJIUDPHZRUNLVWKHVDPH

7KHPHWKRGRORJLHVVHOHFWHGIRUWKHDQDO\VLVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOHDQGGLVFXVVHGLQWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQ(DFKrepresents a different approach to identifying mini-grid opportunities, and provides useful insights for the development RIWHPSODWHPHWKRGRORJ\7KHVHPHWKRGRORJLHVZHUHLGHQWL¿HGIURPLQGLYLGXDOSURMHFWVRUUHSRUWVDQGZHUHVHOHFWHGIRUWKHLUUHOHYDQFHDQGFRQWUDVW

Table 2: Summary of Methodologies Examined

Name Author(s) Rationale

A GIS-based cost comparison of solar PV, mini-hydro, diesel and grid H[WHQVLRQIRU$IULFD

EC Joint Research &RPPLVVLRQ6]DER6HWDO

Developed to identify the potential RIGLIIHUHQWUHQHZDEOHRSWLRQVXVLQJremote input data

B *,6EDVHGFRPSDULVRQRIVRODUZLQGdomestic and centralised diesel and JULGH[WHQVLRQLQWKHPXQLFLSDOLW\RILorca, Spain

Centre for Energy, Environment and Technology DQG3RO\WHFKQLF8QLYHUVLW\RI0DGULG-$PDGRU-'RPLQJXH]

Developed to validate the use of GIS to identify the appropriate FRQYHQWLRQDORUUHQHZDEOHWHFKQRORJLHVIRUHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ

C *,6EDVHGORZHVWFRVWDVVHVVPHQWRIVRODUZLQGPLQLK\GURELRJDVand diesel technologies against grid H[WHQVLRQFRQVLGHULQJODUJHPLQHUDOindustry demand

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Developed to address the perceived QHHGIRUDVWDQGDUGLVHGIUDPHZRUNtoolkit

D GIS-based planning tool using the 1HWZRUN3ODQQHUWRRO

&ROXPELD8QLYHUVLW\1NUXPDK8QLYHUVLW\RIScience and Technology, .XPDVL(QHUJ\&HQWUH).HPDXVXRUHWDO

'HYHORSHGWRYDOLGDWHWKH1HWZRUN3ODQQHU7RROIRUWKHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRIcommunities in Ghana

E *,6EDVHGFRPSDULVRQRIVRODUZLQGDQGJULGH[WHQVLRQIRU9LHWQDP

+DQRL,QVWLWXWHRI(QHUJ\.41JX\HQ

$QLQLWLDOH[DPLQDWLRQRIWKHeconomic viability of alternatives to JULGH[WHQVLRQLQUXUDOFRPPXQLWLHV

F (&2:5(;0DSSLQJ7RRODQG,QWL*,6Planning Tool

ECOWAS Observatory for 5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\DQG(QHUJ\(I¿FLHQF\&,(0$7

Developed to provide accurate NQRZOHGJHRQH[LVWLQJDQGSODQQHGUHVRXUFHVDQGUHQHZDEOHDFWLYLWLHVLQthe ECOWAS region


Name Author(s) Rationale

G GIS-based integrated rural HOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQQLQJFRQVLGHULQJJULGH[WHQVLRQVPDOOK\GURDQGELRPDVV

Innovation Energie Developpement (IED)

Part of the development of an (OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ0DVWHU3ODQIRU7DQ]DQLDXWLOLVLQJ,('GHYHORSHGintegrated planning tools

H The Master Plan Study on Rural (OHFWUL¿FDWLRQE\5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\LQthe Kingdom of Cambodia

Japan International Cooperation Agency

Part of the development of an (OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ0DVWHU3ODQIRUCambodia

I ClimateScope - Global Clean Energy &RXQWU\&RPSHWLWLYHQHVV,QGH[

Multilateral Investment )XQG8.'HSDUWPHQWIRUInternational Development, 3RZHU$IULFDDQG%ORRPEHUJ1HZ(QHUJ\)LQDQFH

Measuring the strength of the UHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\LQYHVWPHQWpolicy development and generation instalment of 55 countries globally, DVZHOODVWKHVWUHQJWKRIWKHHQDEOLQJHQYLURQPHQWIRUUHQHZDEOHdevelopment

J *OREDO&RXQWU\5DQNLQJ%DVHGRQ6XLWDELOLW\IRU5XUDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ

Reiner Lemoine Institut J*PE+$QQ.DWULQ*HUODFKHWDO

*LYHVDQLQGLFDWLRQRIFRXQWULHV¶applicability for the development RIUHQHZDEOHPLQLJULGVWRDLGWKHdevelopment of sustainable business models in these countries

K GIS-based, Demand-Led Rural (OHFWULFLW\3ODQQLQJ7RROIRU8JDQGD

,73RZHU(.DLMXND Aiming to stimulate rural GHYHORSPHQWLQ8JDQGDSURYLGLQJDVLPSOHIUDPHZRUNIRUSULRULWLVDWLRQRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRIFRPPXQLWLHV

L *,6EDVHG(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ3ODQQLQJDecision Support Tool for South Africa

5XUDO$UHD3RZHU6ROXWLRQVHWDO',%DQNVHWDO

To aid the development of off-grid planning for more remote communities currently out of the focus RIWKHQDWLRQDOXWLOLW\(6.20

2.2 METHODOLOGY TYPES

The advance of spatial mapping KDVPHDQWWKDWRYHUWKHODVWWZRGHFDGHVDODUJHQXPEHURIVXFKPHWKRGRORJLHVKDYHXWLOLVHGJHRJUDSKLFDOLQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHP*,6GDWDVHWVDWWKHLQSXWFDOFXODWLRQDQGRXWSXWVWDJHV7KLVDOORZVIRUUHODWLYHO\VLPSOH\HWGHWDLOHGGHVLJQDQGPDSSLQJVROXWLRQVDVZHOODVIRUKRVWLQJRIVXFKPDSVRQRQOLQHSODWIRUPV*,6LVXVHGLQRIWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVDQGWKHUHPDLQLQJDUHEDVHGRQDSSURDFKHVWKDWGRQRWLQFOXGH*,6

GIS-BASED

)RU*,6EDVHGPHWKRGRORJLHVDNH\GLVWLQFWLRQLVPDGHEHWZHHQGHPDQGDQGVXSSO\OHGDSSURDFKHVSupply-led approaches assess the suitability of mini-grids through a measure of the techno-economic competitiveness of each RSWLRQXVXDOO\EDVHGRQWKHOHYHOLVHGFRVWRIHQHUJ\IRUHDFKWHFKQRORJ\7KLVSURGXFHVDOHDVWFRVWVROXWLRQZKLFKFDQEHDXVHIXOKHDGOLQHPHDVXUHEXWZKLFKFDQODFNUREXVWQHVVVLQFHWKHUHLVOLWWOHRUQRFRQVLGHUDWLRQJLYHQWRWKHGHPDQGVLGH)RUH[DPSOHDUHPRWHVHWWOHPHQWPD\EHDVVHVVHGDVPRVWVXLWDEOH IRUVWDQGDORQHV\VWHPVEDVHGon population density, but the presence of strong road infrastructure and a local hospital may mean that the electricity GHPDQGZLOOIDUH[FHHGVXFKDORZFDSDFLW\V\VWHP7KHVHDGGLWLRQDOIDFWRUVDUHFULWLFDODQGPD\QRWEHDFFRXQWHGIRULQDOHDVWFRVWVROXWLRQ


Demand-led approaches try to address this concernE\IRFXVLQJ¿UVWRQWKHOHYHORIHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQUHTXLUHGby each settlement, taking into account the needs of service facilities such as hospitals or schools to identify priority VHWWOHPHQWVWRWDUJHWIRUHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ7KLVDSSURDFKOHDGVWRDYDOLGFDVHIRUJULGH[WHQVLRQWRWKHVHVHWWOHPHQWVWRHQVXUHWKDWHQRXJKFDSDFLW\LVDYDLODEOH6HWWOHPHQWVWKDWUHPDLQQRQHOHFWUL¿HGXQGHUWKLVJULGSODQDUHWKHQDOORFDWHGVWDQGDORQHRUPLQLJULGVROXWLRQVGHSHQGLQJRQUHVRXUFHDYDLODELOLW\DQGRWKHU IDFWRUV7KLVDSSURDFKFDQUHVXOW LQELDVWRZDUGVJULGH[WHQVLRQRYHUGHFHQWUDOLVHGUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\V\VWHPVDVZHOODVLQFUHDVLQJWKHFRVWRIWKHRYHUDOOSURMHFW5HPRWHVHWWOHPHQWVPD\DOVREHJULGFRQQHFWHGEXWRQO\DIWHUDYHU\ORQJSHULRGLQYROYLQJPXOWLSOHVWDJHVRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHFRQVWUXFWLRQZKHUHDVVWDQGDORQHV\VWHPVFRXOGSURYLGHTXLFNDFFHVVWREDVLFHQHUJ\QHHGV

,QFOXGHGDUHWZR*,6EDVHGPHWKRGRORJLHVWKDWGRQRWJLYHFRQVLGHUDWLRQWRUHQHZDEOHUHVRXUFHavailability, DQGIRFXVDOPRVWHQWLUHO\RQJULGH[WHQVLRQ7KHVHKDYHEHHQFRQVLGHUHGEHFDXVHRIWKHLUUHOHYDQFHDQGSRWHQWLDOIRULQWHJUDWLRQLQWRDEURDGHUPHWKRGRORJ\7KHVHJULGH[WHQVLRQIRFXVHGPHWKRGRORJLHVDUHLQFOXGHGLQ)LJXUHDORQJZLWKWKHRWKHUFDWHJRULHVDQGWKHLUDVVRFLDWHGPHWKRGRORJLHV

NON-GIS BASED

Although the majority of methodologies fall into the GIS category, DQRWKHU DSSURDFK LV WR FUHDWH D ZHLJKWHGUDQNLQJXVLQJDYDULHW\RILQGLFDWRUVWRGHWHUPLQHWKHFRXQWULHVRUUHJLRQVWKDWDUHPRVWVXLWDEOHIRUUHQHZDEOHEDVHGUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ7KHWZRH[DPSOHVVWXGLHGLQWKLVUHSRUWDUHWKHLQÀXHQWLDO&OLPDWHVFRSH*OREDO&RPSHWLWLYHQHVV,QGH[UXQE\%ORRPEHUJ1HZ(QHUJ\)LQDQFH%1()DQGWKH*OREDO&RXQWU\5DQNLQJ%DVHGRQ6XLWDELOLW\IRU5XUDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQE\$QQ.DWULQ*HUODFKRIWKH5HLQHU/HPRLQH,QVWLWXWH7KHVHPHWKRGRORJLHVYDU\YDVWO\LQVFRSHDQGVFDOH DQG WKH &OLPDWHVFRSH LQGH[ DOVR FRQVLGHUV D KRVW RI QRQSK\VLFDO LQGLFDWRUV 7KHVH WZR DSSURDFKHV KDYHH[WHQVLYHRXWUHDFKDQGWKHUHIRUHDUHIDPLOLDUWRDZLGHUDQJHRIVWDNHKROGHUV)RUWKLVUHDVRQWKH\KDYHEHHQJLYHQVSHFL¿FDWWHQWLRQLQWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVUHYLHZHG

Figure 1: Diagram of methodologies by type


2.3 METHODOLOGY SUMMARIES

METHODOLOGY A: GIS-BASED COST COMPARISON OF SOLAR PV, MINI-HYDRO, DIESEL AND GRID EXTENSION FOR AFRICA (EC JOINT RESEARCH COMMISSION, SZABO S. ET AL.)

7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVGHYHORSHGE\WKH-RLQW5HVHDUFK&RPPLVVLRQLQDVHULHVRIDQDO\VHVIURPWRWRLGHQWLI\WKHSRWHQWLDORIGLIIHUHQWUHQHZDEOHRSWLRQV2IVSHFL¿FFRQVLGHUDWLRQZDVWKHYDULDQFHLQGLHVHOFRVWVEHWZHHQUXUDODQGXUEDQFRPPXQLWLHVDQGFLUFXPQDYLJDWLQJWKHODFNRIFRPSUHKHQVLYHFRXQWU\OHYHOGDWD

Methodology A compares the levelised costs of solar PV, mini-hydro and diesel generation,ZLWKJULGH[WHQVLRQFRQVLGHUHGYLDEOHZLWKLQD¿[HGGLVWDQFHRIWKHH[LVWLQJJULGQHWZRUN/DWHUVWXGLHVIRUWKHVDPHSURMHFWLQFRUSRUDWHG¿[HGJULGH[WHQVLRQFRVWVDQGWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIPLQLK\GURSRWHQWLDO7KHFRVWHVWLPDWHVDUHFRQVLGHUHGDJDLQVWWZRDELOLW\WRSD\$73VFHQDULRVDQGVSDWLDOPDSSLQJLVXVHGWRVKRZGLIIHUHQWO\FRORXUHGUHJLRQVDFURVV$IULFDZKHUHHDFKRSWLRQLVWKHORZHVWFRVWVROXWLRQRUZKHUHQRRSWLRQVDUHYLDEOHZLWKLQWKH$73VFHQDULR7KLVLVFRPELQHGZLWKDSRSXODWLRQGHQVLW\PDSWRLQGLFDWHWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIWKHSRSXODWLRQEHVWVHUYHGE\HDFKHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQVROXWLRQ)LJXUHVDQG

Figure 2: Comparing the lowest cost options between the original methodology (including mini-hydro) and the updated methodology and costs in the Sustainable Energy Planning report


METHODOLOGY B: GIS-BASED COMPARISON OF SOLAR, WIND, DOMESTIC AND CENTRALISED DIESEL AND GRID EXTENSION IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF LORCA (CENTRE FOR ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND TECHNOLOGY AND POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY OF MADRID, J. AMADOR, J. DOMINGUEZ)

7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVGHYHORSHGE\UHVHDUFKHUVDW&(,0$7DQG(87,803WRYDOLGDWHWKHXVHRI*,6 to identify WKHDSSURSULDWHFRQYHQWLRQDORUUHQHZDEOHWHFKQRORJLHVIRUHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQLQ/RUFD6SDLQ&RPSDULQJVRODUZLQGGLHVHODQGJULGH[WHQVLRQDNP2 UHVROXWLRQJULGZLWKOHDVWFRVWWHFKQRORJ\RSWLRQVLVPRGHOOHGXVLQJGHPDQGHVWLPDWLRQDQGpopulation density to determine the local load

Figure 3: The final lowest cost model output


METHODOLOGY C: GIS-BASED LOWEST-COST ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR, WIND, MINI-HYDRO, BIOGAS AND DIESEL TECHNOLOGIES AGAINST GRID EXTENSION, CONSIDERING LARGE MINERAL INDUSTRY DEMAND (KTH ROYAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, D. MENTIS, F. F. NERINI ET AL.)

7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVGHYHORSHGSULPDULO\E\WKH.7+5R\DO,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\WRDGGUHVVWKHSHUFHLYHGQHHGIRUDVWDQGDUGLVHGIUDPHZRUNWKDWFRXOGSURYLGHWKHIRXQGDWLRQRQZKLFKWREXLOGORFDOO\DSSURSULDWHWRRONLWV7KHIUDPHZRUNKDVOHGWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKH8QLWH81'(6$RSHQVRXUFHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQWRROZKLFKJLYHVDFRXQWU\ZLGHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQVROXWLRQWKDWFRQVLGHUVWKHOHDVWFRVWRIHQHUJ\IRUHDFKSL[HOGHSHQGLQJRQWKHSDUDPHWHUVRIGLHVHOSULFHDQGHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQWLHU7KHWRWDOHVWLPDWHGFRVWRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQLVWKHQJLYHQ

7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\DQGIUDPHZRUNSDSHUVZHUHLQFOXGHGLQWKH,($:RUOG(QHUJ\2XWORRN

Figure 4: Screenshot of the electrification option outputted by the model for tier 3 access with high diesel prices. UN-DESA electricity access tool.


METHODOLOGY D: GIS-BASED PLANNING TOOL USING THE NETWORK PLANNER TOOL (COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY, NKRUMAH UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, KUMASI ENERGY CENTRE, F. KEMAUSUOR ET AL.)

With a planning period of 10 years, WKH1HWZRUN3ODQQHU7RROZDVDSSOLHG WRXQHOHFWUL¿HGFRPPXQLWLHV LQ*KDQDWRSUHGLFWWKHFRVWRIGLIIHUHQWJHQHUDWLRQRSWLRQVVRODU39GLHVHOJULGH[WHQVLRQIRUHDFKFRPPXQLW\7KHWRWDOFRVWRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQZDVJLYHQIRUHDFKRSWLRQPL[RIRSWLRQVDQGDVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVZDVFDUULHGRXWWRHQVXUHWKHUREXVWQHVVRIFRQFOXVLRQV7KHPHWKRGRORJ\UHOLHVRQUHPRWHGDWDVHWVWRDYRLGLQFRPSOHWHQHVVWKHUHIRUHZLQGPLQLK\GURDQGELRPDVVDUHQRWFRQVLGHUHG

Figure 5: Grid infrastructure of Ghana, 2011.


METHODOLOGY E: GIS-BASED COMPARISON OF SOLAR, WIND AND GRID EXTENSION FOR VIETNAM (HANOI INSTITUTE OF ENERGY, K. Q. NGUYEN)

This methodology did not aim at identifying WKH ORZHVWFRVWRSWLRQ IRU UXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ LQ9LHWQDP ,QVWHDG LWZDVXWLOLVHGWRSURGXFHDSUHOLPLQDU\VWXG\RIWKHFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRIVRODUZLQGDQGGHFHQWUDOLVHGGLHVHOJHQHUDWLRQDJDLQVWJULGH[WHQVLRQ'XHWRODFNRIDYDLODEOHGDWDRQQRQHOHFWUL¿HGFRPPXQLWLHVDQGJULGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQ9LHWQDPVHWWOHPHQWVSHFL¿FGDWDZHUHQRWFRQVLGHUHG,QVWHDGWKHLQGLFDWLYHFRVWVRIHDFKRSWLRQZHUHFRPSDUHGIRUGLIIHUHQWGLVWDQFHVWRWKHJULGDQGKRXVHKROGGHQVLWLHV7KHSDUDPHWHUVZHUHFRQVLGHUHGRYHUUHDVRQDEOHYDOXHUDQJHVWRLQGLFDWHZKLFKVHWWOHPHQWVFRXOGEHEHVWHOHFWUL¿HGWKURXJKWKHGLIIHUHQWRSWLRQVFRQVLGHUHG

Figure 6: Mean wind speed at 10m height


METHODOLOGY F: ECOWREX MAPPING TOOL AND INTIGIS PLANNING TOOL– (ECOWAS OBSERVATORY FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY, CIEMAT)

7KH (&2:5(;PDSSLQJPHWKRGRORJ\ZDV GHYHORSHG WR SURYLGH DFFXUDWH NQRZOHGJH RI H[LVWLQJ DQG SODQQHGUHVRXUFHVDQGUHQHZDEOHDFWLYLWLHVLQWKH(&2:$6UHJLRQLQFOXGLQJVRODUZLQGELRPDVVK\GURDQGZDYHSURMHFWV7KH,QWL*,6WRROZDVGHYHORSHGWRFRPSDUHWKHOHYHOLVHGFRVWVRIGLIIHUHQWGHFHQWUDOLVHGWHFKQRORJLHVDQGWKHVHFRQGYHUVLRQ,QWL*,6ZLOOEHLQWHJUDWHGLQWR(&2:5(;WRDOORZIRUWHFKQRORJ\FRPSDULVRQVZLWKLQWKH(&2:$6UHJLRQDQGIRUXWLOLVDWLRQRIWKHVLJQL¿FDQWGDWDDYDLODEOHWKURXJK(&2:5(;IRUGHFHQWUDOLVHGSODQQLQJSURFHVVHV

Figure 7: Screenshot of the existing and planned wind plants with mean wind speed at 50m for the ECOWAS region.


METHODOLOGY G: GIS-BASED INTEGRATED RURAL ELECTRIFICATION PLANNING CONSIDERING GRID EXTENSION, SMALL HYDRO AND BIOMASS (INNOVATION ENERGIE DEVELOPPEMENT)

This methodology has been implemented in multiple countries, and the case study of Tanzania is used here GXHWRLWVLQFOXVLRQRIUHQHZDEOHVRXUFHGDWDZKLFKLVFRYHUHGLQPRUHGHSWKWKDQLQRWKHUSURMHFWV7DQ]DQLD¶V1DWLRQDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ3URJUDP3URVSHFWXVZDVXVHGWRGHYHORSDQ(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ0DVWHU3ODQWKDWFRQVLGHUVJULGH[WHQVLRQDQGVPDOOK\GURELRPDVVRUGLHVHOPLQLJULGV

There have been several tools developed by IED that integrate this methodology, and these tools are utilised in ,('¶VFRXQWU\OHYHOZRUN7KHVHLQFOXGH*(26,0D*,6EDVHGUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQQLQJWRROZKLFKLVXVHGWRGHVLJQDQG FRVW GLIIHUHQW GHFHQWUDOLVHG RSWLRQV DQG WKUHH RWKHU WRROV FRYHULQJ RQOLQH*,6 LQWHUIDFLQJ *,06<6 GHPDQGDQDO\VLVDQGJULGGHVLJQRSWLPLVDWLRQ*,6(/(&*,06<6LQSDUWLFXODUKDVEHHQXWLOLVHGLQPDQ\FRXQWULHVWRKRVWDQRQOLQH*,6SODWIRUPDOWKRXJKPDQ\ZHEVLWHVVKRZRQO\WKHJULGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGSRSXODWLRQFHQWUHV

Figure 8: Identified potential small biomass sites


METHODOLOGY H: THE MASTER PLAN STUDY ON RURAL ELECTRIFICATION BY RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE KINGDOM OF CAMBODIA (JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY)

7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVXWLOL]HGE\WKH-DSDQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RRSHUDWLRQ$JHQF\-,&$WRSUHSDUHD5XUDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ0DVWHU3ODQ IRU&DPERGLD ,W FRQVLVWHGRI WZR\HDUVRIDQDO\WLFDOZRUN LQFOXGLQJRQVLWHGDWDFROOHFWLRQFRPPXQLW\FRQVXOWDWLRQVGHVNEDVHGUHVHDUFKDQGHQJDJHPHQWZLWKWKH0LQLVWU\RI,QGXVWU\0LQHVDQG(QHUJ\DQGRWKHUUHOHYDQWPLQLVWULHV7KHPHWKRGRORJ\FRQVLGHUHGPLFURK\GURVRODUELRPDVVZLQGDQGGLHVHOIRUPLQLJULGV

'XHWRWKHH[WHQVLYHQDWXUHRIWKHVWXG\DQGWKHPDVWHUSODQRQO\WKHUHOHYDQWDVSHFWVZHUHDVVHVVHGIRUWKLVSURMHFW

Figure 9: Identified and Currently Operating Hydropower Projects. Cambodia Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy.


METHODOLOGY I: CLIMATESCOPE - GLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY COUNTRY COMPETITIVENESS INDEX (MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT FUND, UK DEPARTMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, POWER AFRICA AND BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE)

7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\WKH&OLPDWH6FRSH&OHDQ(QHUJ\&RXQWU\&RPSHWLWLYHQHVV,QGH[PHDVXUHVWKHUHQHZDEOHUHODWHGHQHUJ\LQYHVWPHQWSROLF\GHYHORSPHQWDQGLQVWDOOHG5(FDSDFLW\ZLQGVRODUJHRWKHUPDOELRPDVVVPDOOK\GURDQGELRIXHOWHFKQRORJLHVRIFRXQWULHVJOREDOO\)XUWKHUWKHLQGH[LQGLFDWHVWKHVWUHQJWKRIWKHHQDEOLQJHQYLURQPHQWIRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIFOHDQHQHUJ\DQGWHFKQRORJLHVLQWKHVHFRXQWULHV2IWKHFRXQWULHVDUHHYDOXDWHGXVLQJDQDXJPHQWHGµRIIJULG¶PHWKRGRORJ\ZKLFKDVVHVVHVDFRXQWU\¶VFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVUHODWLYHWRRWKHUFRXQWULHVIRUVSHFL¿FRIIJULGUHQHZDEOHWHFKQRORJLHV

Figure 10: Example of ClimateScope country summary sheet – Mozambique.


METHODOLOGY J: GLOBAL COUNTRY RANKING BASED ON SUITABILITY FOR RURAL ELECTRIFICATION (REINER LEMOINE INSTITUT GGMBH, ANN-KATRIN GERLACH ET AL.)

7KLV PHWKRGRORJ\ LV D VLPSOH ZRUOGZLGH FRXQWU\ UDQNLQJ WKDW JLYHV DQ LQGLFDWLRQ RI FRXQWULHV¶ VXLWDELOLW\ IRU WKHGHYHORSPHQWRIUHQHZDEOHPLQLJULGVWRDLGLQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIVXVWDLQDEOHEXVLQHVVPRGHOVLQWKHVHFRXQWULHV7KHZHLJKWHGUDQNLQJXVHVUHPRWHLQGLFDWRUVHJHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQUDWH&RUUXSWLRQ3HUFHSWLRQV,QGH[WRDVVHVVWKHPDUNHWSRWHQWLDODQGSROLWLFDODQG¿QDQFLDOHQYLURQPHQWIRUPLQLJULGVLQHDFKFRXQWU\

Figure 11: Top 20 from 89 non-excluded countries, based on market potential and political and financial enabling environment

METHODOLOGY K: GIS-BASED, DEMAND-LED RURAL ELECTRICITY PLANNING TOOL FOR UGANDA (IT POWER, E. KAIJUKA)

7KLV PHWKRGRORJ\ LGHQWL¿HV SDWWHUQV RI GHPDQG DQGSULRULW\ DUHDV IRU LQYHVWPHQWZLWK WKHDLPRI LQFUHDVLQJWKHUDWHRI UXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQZLWKRXWKDYLQJ WRGHYHORSD FRPSUHKHQVLYH HOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ SODQ 7KH PHWKRGRORJ\SURYLGHV LQYHVWRUV ZLWK D GHPDQGOHG SULRULWLVDWLRQ RIWDUJHWDUHDVIURPZKLFKVXSSO\VLGHV\VWHPGHVLJQVFDQEHGHYHORSHG

The methodology prioritises health centres, schools, households, and local government headquarters, in WKDW RUGHU$ ZHLJKWHG EHQH¿W SRLQWV VFRUH LV DZDUGHGfor each demand sector, including households, and the sub-counties are given a cumulative score based on the VHFWRUVZLWKLQWKHLUERXQGDULHV

Figure 12 (right): Kabarole district benefit point allocation by sub-county. Red indicates higher priority and greater benefits; green indicates lower priority and lower benefits.


METHODOLOGY L: GIS-BASED ELECTRIFICATION PLANNING DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR SOUTH AFRICA (RURAL AREA POWER SOLUTIONS ET AL., D. I. BANKS ET AL.)

7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVGHYHORSHGWRDLG LQSODQQLQJUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ LQ6RXWK$IULFD LQRUGHUWRDGGUHVVWKHZLGHGLVSDULWLHV EHWZHHQ HOHFWUL¿HG DQG XQHOHFWUL¿HG VHWWOHPHQWV *ULGFRQQHFWHG VHWWOHPHQWV KDYH VHHQ VLJQL¿FDQWGHYHORSPHQW EHQH¿WV IURP WKH KHDY\ WDULII VXEVLGLHV XS WR 5 SHU KRXVHKROG FRQQHFWLRQ IHHV RI RQO\ 5DSSUR[LPDWHO\86DVZHOODVQRPLQLPXPPRQWKO\FKDUJHVDQGFRQQHFWLRQIHHVRIRQO\5DSSUR[86+RZHYHUWKHVHVXEVLGLHVKDYHEHHQEXUGHQVRPHIRUWKHQDWLRQDOXWLOLW\(VNRPDQGKDYHFRQWULEXWHGWRLWRSHUDWLQJDWDORVV7KHPHWKRGRORJ\FRQWULEXWHGWRPRUHHIIHFWLYHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJIRU5(VSHFL¿FDOO\FRQFHUQLQJRIIJULGFRQQHFWLRQVIRUUHPRWHFRPPXQLWLHVWRHQDEOHWKHVHFRPPXQLWLHVWRKDYHWKHEHQH¿WVRIHOHFWULFLW\ZLWKRXWLPSDFWLQJWKHQDWLRQDOEXGJHW

7KHPHWKRGRORJ\LVEDVHGRQWKHSULQFLSOHRIPD[LPLVLQJWKHGHYHORSPHQWLPSDFWRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQIRUHDFKXQHOHFWUL¿HGVHWWOHPHQWDQGXVLQJWKHSRWHQWLDOGHYHORSPHQWLPSDFWWRSULRULWLVHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ7KHPHWKRGRORJ\UHFRJQLVHVWKDWDGLUHFWFRVWFRPSDULVRQRIJULGDQGRIIJULGVROXWLRQVZLOOQRWSURYLGHDUREXVWVROXWLRQZLWKRXWDKLJKOHYHORIDQDO\VLVGXHWRWKHGLIIHUHQWOHYHOVRIVHUYLFHRIIHUHGE\WKHWZRW\SHVRIVROXWLRQVDQGKLJKGHSHQGHQFHRQLQSXWSDUDPHWHUV

Figure 13: Electrification solution possible with maximum cost per point of R3500 (approx. US$235). Points are awarded based on electrification benefit, such as a hospital receiving 15 points or a household 1 point.


2.4 OTHER DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS

,QDGGLWLRQWRWKHVSHFL¿FPHWKRGRORJLHVGLVFXVVHGDERYHZKLFKDUHJHDUHGWRZDUGDVVHVVLQJWKHRSSRUWXQLW\for green mini-grids under different local conditions, a range of decision support tools have been developed by different VWDNHKROGHUV7KHVHWRROVDUHLQWHQGHGWREHXVHIXOIRUSUDFWLWLRQHUVGXULQJWKHSODQQLQJDQGLPSOHPHQWDWLRQRIPLQLJULGSURMHFWV7KHUHDUHPDQ\VXFKWRROVDYDLODEOHLQFOXGLQJVRIWZDUHSURJUDPPHVFORXGEDVHGVHUYLFHVFKHFNOLVWVDQGWHPSODWHVWKDWFDQEHXVHGIRUYDULRXVDVSHFWVUHODWHGWRWKHSODQQLQJGHVLJQDQGRSHUDWLRQRIPLQLJULGV

As part of the UN SE4All Clean Energy Mini-Grids LQLWLDWLYHDQRYHUYLHZRI³7RROVIRU0LQL*ULG3UDFWLWLRQHUV´KDVEHHQSURGXFHGE\*,=ZKLFKEULHÀ\GHVFULEHVPRUHWKDQWRROVLQWKHIROORZLQJDUHDV

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One of more of these support tools may be useful to policymakers and investors for assessing the mini-grid SRWHQWLDORIDQLGHQWL¿HGORFDWLRQ7KHHIIHFWLYHLGHQWL¿FDWLRQRIORFDWLRQVKRZHYHUZLOOGHSHQGRQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHWHPSODWHPHWKRGRORJ\WKDWLVWKHREMHFWLYHRIWKLVDQDO\VLV


3. METHODOLOGY ANALYSIS

3.1 ASSESSMENT CRITERIA

7KHREMHFWLYHRIWKLVUHSRUWLVWRLGHQWLI\DQGHYDOXDWHWKHH[LVWLQJPHWKRGRORJLHV that (a) are used to assess WKHSRWHQWLDO IRUHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ WKURXJKPLQLJULGVDQGEFRXOGKHOS LQIRUPWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI WKHRYHUDOO WHPSODWHPHWKRGRORJ\ 7KH XVHIXOQHVV RI HDFK PHWKRGRORJ\ WR D SURMHFW GHYHORSHU RU RWKHU VWDNHKROGHU ZLOO RQ LWV TXDOLW\DSSOLFDELOLW\DQGSUDFWLFDOLW\DVGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHIROORZLQJNH\IDFWRUVVSHFL¿HGE\WKH$IULFDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQNDUH

• Relevance to stakeholders• Relevance and quality of outputs• Data requirements• +DQGOLQJRIGDWDSDXFLW\• 6RIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWV• Robustness• Openness and ease of use• ,QWHURSHUDELOLW\ZLWKRWKHUSODQQLQJWRROV• &RVWDQGOHYHORIWUDLQLQJUHTXLUHG

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Table 3: Scores out of five, by methodology and criteria

Methodology A B C D E F G H I J K L

Relevance to stakeholders 2 4 5 4 2 4 5 5 2 1 2

Relevance and quality of outputs

2 4 2 4 4 5 1 1 2

Data requirements 2 4 4 4 4 4 5 1$

1RW.QRZQ

+DQGOLQJRIdata paucity 5 4 4 5 1$ 5 5 5

1RW.QRZQ

6RIWZDUHrequirements 5 4 5 5

Robustness 4 5 4 41RW

.QRZQ 5 4

Openness and HDVHRI8VH 4 2 5 5 4 1 2 2 5 5 2

Interoperability ZLWKRWKHUplanning tools

5 5 5 5 5 1$ 5 5 5 5

Cost and level of training required

5 4 4 2 1 1 5 2


3.2 RELEVANCE TO STAKEHOLDERS

This section considers the overall usefulness of each methodologyIRUGHWHUPLQLQJWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUDPLQLJULG7KLVVHFWLRQORRNVDWZKHWKHUDPHWKRGRORJ\FRQVLGHUVDOOUHOHYDQWUHVRXUFHVRULQSXWIDFWRUVZKHWKHULWVPHFKDQLFVDQGRUDVVXPSWLRQVDUHDSSOLFDEOHLQSUDFWLFHDQGZKHWKHULWVRXWSXWVSURYLGHLQIRUPDWLRQDWWKHUHTXLUHGVFDOH7KHTXDOLW\RIWKHVHLQSXWVDQGRXWSXWVDUHDOVRFRQVLGHUHG

7KHDQDO\VLVIRXQGWKDWZKLOHWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVGLIIHUZLGHO\LQWKHLUDSSURDFKWKH\DOOSURYLGHDFWLRQDEOHLQIRUPDWLRQWKDWFDQEHXVHIXOWRSROLF\PDNHUVDQGLQYHVWRUV7KH,QWL*,6WRROIRUH[DPSOHSURYLGHVLQGLFDWLRQVRIPLQLJULGSRWHQWLDOWKURXJKWKHOHYHOLVHGFRVWRIHQHUJ\XQGHUGLIIHUHQWRSWLRQV2WKHUPHWKRGRORJLHVVXFKDV1HWZRUN3ODQQHUXVHWKHFRVWRIHQHUJ\WRVXJJHVWDQHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQLQIUDVWUXFWXUH/DFNRIGDWDZDVWKHOLPLWLQJIDFWRUIRUPDQ\PHWKRGRORJLHVH[DPLQHGZLWK0HWKRGRORJ\.±D*,6UXUDOHOHFWULFLW\SODQQLQJWRROIRU8JDQGD±RQO\DEOHWRSURYLGHDUHFRPPHQGDWLRQEDVHGRQGHPDQG7KLVLVDVHYHUHOLPLWDWLRQRQLWVUHOHYDQFHIRUDGHYHORSHUORRNLQJWRHVWLPDWHRYHUDOOSRWHQWLDODQGLWZRXOGQHHGWREHXVHGLQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKRWKHUPHWKRGRORJLHVDQGWRROV

Table 4: Relevance to stakeholders

Method Relevance to Stakeholders Score (1-5)A This is a high-level methodology that gives a clear, if only indicative, least-cost

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2

B )RUWKHUHJLRQLQZKLFKWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVDSSOLHG±/RUFD6SDLQ±DFOHDUSUHVFULSWLRQIRUWKHOHDVWFRVWHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQV\VWHPZDVLGHQWL¿HG7KHVFRSHRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\LVYHU\QDUURZ+RZHYHUGXHWRWKHVPDOODUHDDVVHVVHGWKHVROXWLRQDOORZHGIRUXVHIXOVWDNHKROGHUGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ

4

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5

D 7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\XVHV1HWZRUN3ODQQHUZKLFKGHYHORSVDIXOOVROXWLRQIRUWKHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRIDWDUJHWUHJLRQJLYLQJWRWDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQFRVWVDQGFRVWVIRUHDFKFRPPXQLW\RUUHJLRQ7KHPHWKRGRORJ\DOVRFRQVLGHUVGHPDQGIURPKRXVHVDQGVHUYLFHVDVZHOODVSURMHFWHGJURZWKUDWHV7KHNH\OLPLWDWLRQIRUGHYHORSHUVLVLWVGHSHQGHQFHRQUHPRWHGDWDVHWVZKLFKDOORZVIRUDSSOLFDWLRQDFURVV$IULFD+RZHYHUVLQFHRQO\VRODUGDWDDUHDYDLODEOHWKDWPHDQVWKDWRQO\WKHVRODUUHVRXUFHcan be considered, and then only for a stand-alone (household or small facility) V\VWHP0LQLJULGVDUHDVVXPHGWRXVHGLHVHOJHQHUDWLRQ

4

E Due to the lack of available data, this methodology does not give levelised cost of HQHUJ\HVWLPDWHVIRUVSHFL¿FORFDWLRQVEXWORRNVDWWKHUHODWLYHFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRIVRODUZLQGDQGGLHVHOVROXWLRQVDJDLQVWJULGH[WHQVLRQIRU9LHWQDP7KHUHIRUHit is useful to developers only as a base for building a more detailed opportunity DVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJ\

2


Method Relevance to Stakeholders Score (1-5)

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4

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5

H &DPERGLD¶V0DVWHU3ODQIRU5XUDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQLVXVHIXOEHFDXVHLWRXWOLQHVWKHrole of all stakeholders, including private investors, in the development of green PLQLJULGV

5

I 7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\FROODWHVLQIRUPDWLRQRQFXUUHQWDQGSODQQHGSURMHFWVOHYHOVof investment, and the policy environment from multiple country-level sources to SURYLGHDQRYHUYLHZRIWKHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQQHHGVLQWKHFRXQWU\+RZHYHUWKHUHDUHno indicators on a sub-country level on resource potentials, population distributions RURWKHUNH\IDFWRUV

2

J This methodology can help developers prioritise countries for mini-grid GHYHORSPHQW+RZHYHUDIXOOGHFLVLRQZRXOGUHTXLUHPXFKPRUHGHWDLOHGLQYHVWLJDWLRQRIWKHWHFKQLFDOGHPRJUDSKLFLQIUDVWUXFWXUDODQGSROLF\IDFWRUV

1

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2

L 7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\SULRULWLVHVJULGH[WHQVLRQDQGGRHVQRWFRQVLGHUUHQHZDEOHSRWHQWLDO+RZHYHULWGRHVVSHFLI\ZLWKLQWKHPRGHOOHGUHJLRQZKLFKVHWWOHPHQWVFDQEHHOHFWUL¿HGWKURXJKPLQLJULGVDQGZKLFKRQHVQHHGVWDQGDORQHV\VWHPV

3.3 RELEVANCE AND QUALITY OF OUTPUTS

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Table 5: Relevance and quality of outputs assessment

Method Relevance and Quality of Outputs Score (1-5)A 7KHRXWSXWRIWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDV$IULFDZLGHPDSSLQJRIWKHUHODWLYHHFRQRP\

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2

B 7KHRXWSXWZDVDORZHVWFRVWUHFRPPHQGDWLRQIRUHYHU\NP2ZLWKDVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVDSSOLHGWRVKRZWKHGHSHQGHQFHRQHYHU\YDULDEOH7KHUHFRPPHQGDWLRQZDVFOHDUZLWKUHJDUGWRGHPDQGHVWLPDWLRQEXWQRWWRWKHPHWKRGRORJ\DSSOLHG7KLVOLPLWHGWKHDSSOLFDELOLW\RIWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\

C 7KHRXWSXWZDVDFOHDUFRXQWU\ZLGHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQVROXWLRQWKDWVKRZVWKHOHDVWFRVWRSWLRQVIRUVSHFL¿FDUHDV$IUDPHZRUNPHWKRGRORJ\LVJLYHQORFDOYDULDEOHHVWLPDWHVWR¿QGDVSHFL¿FVROXWLRQLQFOXGLQJDVPDOOVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVDERXWWKHUXUDODQGXUEDQHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQOHYHOV6ROXWLRQVZHUHJLYHQIRUHDFKSL[HORINP[NP7KH81'(6$RQOLQHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQWRROFDQGHOLYHUWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\IRUDOOFRXQWULHVLQ$IULFD

4

D 7KHRXWSXWZDVDIXOOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQLQIUDVWUXFWXUHWKDWJDYHWKHLQYHVWPHQWFRVWVUHTXLUHGIRUGLIIHUHQWSHQHWUDWLRQUDWHVGLIIHUHQWHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQVDQGUHJLRQRUVHWWOHPHQW7KHIRFXVZDVRQWKHRYHUDOOFRVWRIVWDQGDORQHPLQLJULGDQGJULGH[WHQVLRQUDWKHUWKDQRQWKHUHODWLYHRSSRUWXQLW\RIGLIIHUHQWUHQHZDEOHRSWLRQVVRWKHFRVWRIHQHUJ\ZDVQRWJLYHQ

E 7KHRXWSXWZDVWKHUHODWLYHFRVWVRIGLIIHUHQWWHFKQRORJLHVIRUYDU\LQJKRXVHKROGGHQVLWLHVDQGGLVWDQFHVWRWKHJULG2QO\HVWLPDWHVIRUWKHSURSRUWLRQRIWKHSRSXODWLRQEHVWVHUYHGE\HDFKRSWLRQZHUHJLYHQDVWKHUHZHUHQRVHWWOHPHQWRUJULGORFDWLRQGDWD7KHUHIRUHQRVLWHVSHFL¿FUHFRPPHQGDWLRQVZHUHPDGH

2

F The lack of completion of IntiGIS means the details of the methodology and outputs DUHQRWFRQ¿UPHG+RZHYHUWKHRXWSXWVZLOOLQFOXGHDOHYHOLVHGFRVWRIHQHUJ\FDOFXODWLRQIRUDOORIWKHWHFKQRORJ\RSWLRQVDQGZLOOFRYHUWKHHQWLUH(&2:$6UHJLRQZLWKDJRRGUHVROXWLRQEDVHGRQWKHUHVROXWLRQRIFXUUHQW(&2:5(;LQSXWGDWD

4

G 7KHRXWSXWZDVDFOHDUO\LGHQWL¿HGHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQIRUHDFKVHWWOHPHQWLQFOXGLQJLPSOHPHQWDWLRQWLPHIUDPHVSHQHWUDWLRQUDWHVDQGLGHQWL¿HGK\GURDQGELRPDVVVLWHV7KHQXPEHURIVHWWOHPHQWVLQHDFKUHJLRQUHFHLYLQJHDFKHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQZDVOLVWHGDQGWRWDOLQYHVWPHQWFRVWVZHUHJLYHQIRUHDFKHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQ+RZHYHUWKHOHYHOLVHGFRVWRIHQHUJ\IRUHDFKVHWWOHPHQWZDVQRWJLYHQ

4


Method Relevance and Quality of Outputs Score (1-5)

H 7KHRXWSXWZDVDFRPSOHWH0DVWHU3ODQRQ5XUDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQIRU&DPERGLDZKLFKGHWDLOHGLQIXOOWKHDVVRFLDWHGWHFKQLFDOHFRQRPLFDQGSROLF\DVSHFWV7KHVFRSHRIWKHZRUNLQFOXGHGDFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIDOOFRPPXQLWLHVSURYLGLQJDVWURQJLQIRUPDWLRQEDVHIRUDQ\IXWXUHVWDNHKROGHU

5

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1

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1

K 7KHRXWSXWZDVDEHQH¿WSRLQWVVFRUHWKDWJDYHDFOHDUUDQNLQJWRHDFKVXEUHJLRQLQWKHFRXQWU\7KHJULGDQGURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHZHUHPDSSHGEXWWKHRXWSXWGHSHQGHGRQO\RQWKHSRSXODWLRQVL]HDQGGHPDQGFHQWUHVVRWKHUHVXOWJDYHQRLQGLFDWLRQDVWRWKHUHVRXUFHVDYDLODEOHQHDUWKHGHPDQGFHQWUHV

2

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3.4 DATA REQUIREMENTS

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Figure 14.a: Summary checklist of methodology input parameters

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Demand -Led Grid Extension


Methodology Type

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes '/^^ƉĂƟĂůDĂƉƉŝŶŐInput Parameters Used

Renewable

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes ^ŽůĂƌ/ƌƌĂĚŝĂƟŽŶ

PV

Yes Yes ǆŝƐƟŶŐ^ŽůĂƌ&ĂƌŵƐ

Yes(Coming Soon) Yes River Annual Flowrate

Hy

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Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes ǆŝƐƟŶŐDŝŶŝͲ,ǇĚƌŽ^ŝƚĞƐYes Yes Yes WŽƚĞŶƟĂůDŝŶŝͲ,ǇĚƌŽ^ŝƚĞƐ

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Average Wind Speed

Win

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Yes Yes Yes ǆŝƐƟŶŐtŝŶĚ^ŝƚĞƐ

Yes Yes Yes ǆŝƐƟŶŐŝŽŵĂƐƐ^ŝƚĞƐ

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Yes Yes Yes Yes WŽƚĞŶƟĂůŝŽŵĂƐ^ŝƚĞƐNetwork and Energy

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes ǆŝƐƟŶŐ'ƌŝĚEĞƚǁŽƌŬ

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Yes'ĞŶĞƌĂƚŽƌ>ŝĐĞŶĐĞ/ŶĨŽƌŵĂƟŽŶ;^ĞƌǀŝĐĞareas, licensee performance)

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Yes Yes Planned Large Industry Demand


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Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes hƐĞƌĞŵĂŶĚ>ĞǀĞů;ƐͿ>ŽĂĚWƌŽĮůĞYes Yes Household Income

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Yes Ease of Doing Business


Table 6: Data requirements assessment

Method 'DWD5HTXLUHPHQWV Score (1-5)

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Method 'DWD5HTXLUHPHQWV Score (1-5)

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3.5 HANDLING OF DATA PAUCITY

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Table 7: Data paucity assessments

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5

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5

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5

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3.6 SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS

0RVWRIWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVXWLOLVHGJHRJUDSKLFLQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHPV*,6ZKLFKZHUHUXQRQDFRPSXWHURUODSWRS7KLVDQDO\VLV LVSULPDULO\FRQFHUQHGZLWKWKHW\SHVRIVRIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWV LHZKHWKHUVSHFL¿FVRIWZDUHZDVUHTXLUHGRUWKHWRROZDVKRVWHGRQDQRQOLQHSODWIRUP7KHUHSRUWGRHVQRWFRQVLGHUWKHVSHFL¿FSURFHVVLQJFRQVWUDLQWVRIWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVDVPRVWFRXOGEHDSSOLHGXVLQJDYDULHW\RIWRROVDQGPRVWGLGQRWVSHFLI\ZKLFK*,6VRIWZDUHZDVXVHG

)RUUHIHUHQFHRQHRIWKHPRVWFRPPRQO\XVHG*,6VRIWZDUHSDFNDJHV$UF*,6KDVVRIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWVWKDWFDQEHmet by a standard-range computer6:

• &386SHHG±*+]• 3ODWIRUP±:LQGRZVRUKLJKHU[• 0HPRU\5$0±*%PLQLPXP• 'LVN6SDFH±*%• *UDSKLFV$GDSWHU0%5$0PLQLPXP0%5$0RUKLJKHUUHFRPPHQGHG

6 KWWSZZZHVULFRPVRIWZDUHDUFJLVDUFJLVIRUGHVNWRSV\VWHPUHTXLUHPHQWV


7KHUHIRUHWKHSULPDU\OLPLWDWLRQVLQWKHGHOLYHU\RID*,6EDVHGWRROZDVWKHWUDLQLQJUHTXLUHGRULQVRPHFDVHVWKHFRVWRIVRIWZDUHDQGOLFHQVLQJ

)RUWKLVFDWHJRU\DKLJKHUVFRUHGHQRWHVORZHUVRIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWVZLWKDVFRUHRIIRUQRUHTXLUHPHQWVDWDOO

Table 8: Software requirements assessment

Method 6RIWZDUH5HTXLUHPHQWV Score (1-5)A 8QVSHFL¿HG*,6VRIWZDUHZDVXWLOLVHG7KHUHIRUHVWDQGDUGVRIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWV

DUHDVVXPHG

B 8QVSHFL¿HG*,6VRIWZDUHZDVXWLOLVHG7KHUHIRUHVWDQGDUGVRIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWVDUHDVVXPHG

C 7KHRULJLQDOPHWKRGRORJ\XVHGDQXQVSHFL¿HG*,6WRROPRVWOLNHO\RQHVXFKDV$UF*,67KHRQOLQHWRROVXVLQJWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\UHTXLUHGRQO\DQLQWHUQHWFRQQHFWLRQ5HDVRQDEOHGRZQORDGVSHHGVPD\EHUHTXLUHGWRXVHIUHHO\

D 7KH1HWZRUN3ODQQHULVRQOLQHDQGFDQEHUXQRQDVWDQGDUGFRPSXWHURUODSWRS 5

E 8QVSHFL¿HG*,6VRIWZDUHZDVXWLOLVHG7KHUHIRUHVWDQGDUGVRIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWVDVVXPHG

F ,QWL*,6XVHV$UF*,6

G 7KH*(26,0VRIWZDUHGHYHORSHGDQGXVHGE\,('LV*,6EDVHGDQGKDVPLQLPDOVRIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWV

4

H 8QVSHFL¿HG*,6VRIWZDUHZDVXWLOLVHG7KHUHIRUHVWDQGDUGVRIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWVDUHDVVXPHG

I 1RVRIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWV 5

J 1RVRIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWV 5

K 8QVSHFL¿HG*,6VRIWZDUHZDVXWLOLVHG7KHUHIRUHVWDQGDUGVRIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWVDUHDVVXPHG

L 8QVSHFL¿HG*,6VRIWZDUHZDVXWLOLVHG7KHUHIRUHVWDQGDUGVRIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWVDUHDVVXPHG

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3.7 ROBUSTNESS

5REXVWQHVVUHIHUVWRWKHDELOLW\RIDPHWKRGRORJ\RUWRROWRGHDOZLWKHUURUV$QRQUREXVWPHWKRGRORJ\LVKLJKO\VHQVLWLYHWRHUURUVVR WKHUHVXOWZRXOGEHKLJKO\YDULDEOHZKHQ LQSXWVDUHFKDQJHGRQO\VOLJKWO\7KLV LVRIFUXFLDO LPSRUWDQFHIRU UXUDO HOHFWUL¿FDWLRQZKHUH WKH LQKHUHQW XQFHUWDLQW\ LQPHDVXULQJ DQG IRUHFDVWLQJ GHPDQGDQGRWKHU SRSXODWLRQGHSHQGHQWIDFWRUVPHDQVDQRQUREXVWPHWKRGRORJ\ZRXOGEHOLNHO\WRSUHVHQWDQRQRSWLPDOVROXWLRQ

The key issue concerning robustness is the risk of relying on inaccurate or out-of-date sources for parameters on ZKLFKWKHRXWSXWLVKLJKO\GHSHQGHQW9DULRXVVHQVLWLYLW\VWXGLHVH[DPLQHGDVSDUWRIWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVIRXQGWKDWWKHVHQVLWLYLW\RQSDUDPHWHUVVXFKDVGHPDQGOHYHOGLVWDQFHWRWKHJULGDQGORFDOGLHVHOSULFHVKDYHDVLJQL¿FDQWLPSDFWRQ IRU H[DPSOHZKHWKHU LW LVPRVW HFRQRPLF WR HOHFWULI\ YLD JULG H[WHQVLRQPLQLJULG RU VWDQGDORQH V\VWHPV )RUPHWKRGRORJLHVHPSOR\LQJDZHLJKWLQJRIIDFWRUVVXFKDVIRUGHPDQGOHGSULRULWLVDWLRQRIVHWWOHPHQWVIRUHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQWKHFKRLFHRIZHLJKWLQJVLVVLJQL¿FDQW7KHVHPHWKRGRORJLHVWHQGHGWRXVHVWDNHKROGHUFRQVXOWDWLRQWRDJUHHRQWKHDSSURSULDWHUHODWLYHZHLJKWLQJV

Table 9: Robustness assessment

Method Robustness Score (1-5)A 7KHPHWKRGRORJ\DVDSSOLHGZDVUREXVWGXHEHLQJFRQWLQHQWZLGHDQGQRWUHOLDQW

RQFRXQWU\OHYHOGDWDVRXUFHV7KHFUXFLDOH[FHSWLRQVZHUHWKHJULGDQGURDGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHZKLFKZHUHDOUHDG\VOLJKWO\RXWGDWHGZKHQDSSOLHGDQGZRXOGQHHGXSGDWLQJIRUDQ\IXWXUHSURMHFWV

4

B $IXOOVSDWLDOVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVZDVGRQHPDQXDOO\ZLWKVLQJOHYDULDEOHparameterisation and simultaneous parameter variation (random changes in multiple YDULDEOHVZKLFKGHPRQVWUDWHGH[SOLFLWO\WKHGHSHQGHQFHRIWKHPRGHORXWSXWVRQLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVVXFKDVGHPDQG7KLVHQDEOHGDIXOO\UREXVWFRQFOXVLRQWREHGUDZQ

5

C 7KHPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVEDVHGRQFRXQWU\OHYHODQGUHPRWHGDWDZLWKDUREXVWIUDPHZRUNPHWKRGRORJ\DQGIHZEURDGDVVXPSWLRQV7KHUHVRXUFHGDWDZHUHWDNHQIURPVRXUFHVVXFKDV,5(1$DQG81,'2ZKLFKKDYHDKLJKSRWHQWLDOIRUXSGDWHGVRXUFHGDWD7KHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHGDWDZHUHDVJLYHQLQ0HWKRGRORJ\$DQGZHUHRXWGDWHGDVZHUHWKHSRSXODWLRQGDWD

D $VHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVZDVSHUIRUPHGE\YDU\LQJFHUWDLQSDUDPHWHUVDQGPHDVXULQJWKHHIIHFWRQWKH¿QDOUHVXOW7KHKLJKGHSHQGHQFHRQFHUWDLQSDUDPHWHUVVXFKDVGHPDQGDQGGLHVHOSULFHZDVWKHUHIRUHDFFRXQWHGIRU+RZHYHUWKHIRUHFDVWLQJDQGSURMHFWLRQVXVHGLQWKHPRGHOZKLOHFUHDWLQJDPRUHSUHFLVHVROXWLRQDOVRLQWURGXFHGDJUHDWHUSRWHQWLDOIRUFRPSRXQGLQJHUURUVDQGWKXVUHGXFHGUREXVWQHVV

4

E 7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVUREXVWGXHWRSDUDPHWHULVLQJYDULDEOHVIRUZKLFKWKHUHZHUHQRDYDLODEOHGDWD$OWKRXJKWKLVDIIHFWHGWKHFRQFOXVLRQVGUDZQLWOLPLWHGDSSUR[LPDWLRQDQGH[WUDSRODWLRQ7KHEURDGQDWXUHRIWKH¿QDOHVWLPDWHIRUWKHSURSRUWLRQRISRSXODWLRQEHVWVHUYHGE\HDFKRSWLRQZDVQDWXUDOO\UREXVW

4

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Method Robustness Score (1-5)

G This demand-led methodology measured development potential for different HOHFWUL¿FDWLRQVROXWLRQVWKURXJKH[LVWLQJVRFLDOVWUXFWXUHV7KHUHIRUHLWVUREXVWQHVVGHSHQGHGRQWKHZHLJKWLQJFULWHULDXVHGWRGH¿QHWKHERXQGDU\RISRWHQWLDOUHTXLUHGIRUDVHWWOHPHQWWREHDµGHYHORSPHQWFHQWUH¶7KLVGLVWLQFWLRQZDVFUXFLDOWRWKHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQVH[SORUHGDQGPD\ZHOOFKDQJHZLWKSROLWLFDODQGRWKHUIDFWRUV7KH1DWLRQDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ3URJUDP3URVSHFWXVLVWKHIRXQGDWLRQRQZKLFKD1DWLRQDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ0DVWHU3ODQZLOOEHGHYHORSHGDQGSDUWRIWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKLVSODQZRXOGEHDVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVRIWKHUREXVWQHVVRIWKHVFHQDULRSUHVHQWHGLQWKH3URVSHFWXV

H 7KHOHYHORIGDWDFROOHFWLRQHQVXUHGDUREXVWQHVVRILQSXWGDWD7KHPDLQVRXUFHRISRWHQWLDOIUDJLOLW\ZDVLQWKHFXWRIIWKUHVKROGVXVHGWRGLIIHUHQWLDWHWKHOHYHOVRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSURYLGHGWRYLOODJHVZKLFKZHUHEDVHGRQFULWHULDVXFKDVWKHOHYHORIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQH[FOXGLQJEDWWHU\DQG79GLIIXVLRQ

5

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J /HVVDSSOLFDEOHDVWKHSXUSRVHRIDZHLJKWHGUDQNLQJLVWRJLYHDQLQGLFDWLYHOLVWEDVHGRQDQDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHUHOHYDQWFKRLFHDQGZHLJKWLQJRIDYDLODEOHRILQGLFDWRUV7KLV¿QDOUDQNLQJLVKLJKO\GHSHQGHQWRQWKHFKRLFHRILQGLFDWRUVDQGZHLJKWLQJV

K 7KHEHQH¿WUDQNLQJZDVGHSHQGHQWRQWKHZHLJKWLQJVJLYHQIRUHDFKGHPDQGFHQWUHHVSHFLDOO\ZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHUHODWLYHEHQH¿WDVVXPHGIRUKRXVHKROGYVVHUYLFHFHQWUHV7KHVHZHLJKWLQJVZHUHFKRVHQLQFRQVXOWDWLRQZLWKVWDNHKROGHUV,WFRXOGDOVREHDVVXPHGWKDWVRPHOHYHORIFRUUHODWLRQZRXOGH[LVWEHWZHHQVHWWOHPHQWVL]HDQGVHUYLFHOHYHOVZKLFKPD\PHDQDORZHUVHQVLWLYLW\RQWKHUHODWLYHZHLJKWLQJV

4

L 7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\VSHFL¿FDOO\DYRLGHGXWLOLVLQJDVXSSO\OHGDSSURDFKLQRUGHUWRSUHYHQWDSHUFHLYHGODFNRIUREXVWQHVVRIRXWSXWV7KLVDSSURDFKZDVWDNHQGXHWRWKHKLJKVHQVLWLYLW\RIWKHYDOXHVIRXQGRUFKRVHQIRUFHUWDLQLQSXWYDULDEOHV7KHZHLJKWLQJYDOXHVDSSHDUWRKDYHEHHQFKRVHQE\WKHDXWKRUV

3.8 OPENNESS AND EASE OF USE

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7KHPHWKRGRORJLHVYDULHGFRQVLGHUDEO\LQWKHLURSHQQHVVDQGHDVHRIXVH7KRVHZLWKORZVFRUHVODFNHGFODULW\FRQFHUQLQJWKHPHFKDQLFVXVHGRUWKHFKRVHQGDWDVRXUFHV2WKHUVVXFKDVWKH(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ0DVWHU3ODQRI&DPERGLDZHUHZHOOSUHVHQWHGJLYHQWKHLUVFDOHDQGVFRSHEXWZHUHE\WKHLUQDWXUHWRRLQGHSWKDQGLQYROYHGWREHHDV\WRLQWHUSUHWDQGEXLOGXSRQ


$WWKHWHFKQLFDOOHYHOQRQHRIWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVKDGDVLJQL¿FDQWSUREOHPDVPRVWZHUHZHOOSUHVHQWHGDQGGHWDLOHG+RZHYHUDWWHPSWHGUHSOLFDWLRQVRIWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVZHUHOLPLWHGE\*,6VNLOOVDQGVRIWZDUH

8WLOLVLQJRQOLQHWRROVVXFKDV1HWZRUN3ODQQHUIRUH[DPSOHDOORZHGXVHUVWRFLUFXPQDYLJDWHWKHPRUHWHFKQLFDODVSHFWVRI WKHSODQQLQJPHWKRGRORJLHV+RZHYHUVRPHPHWKRGRORJLHVVXFKDV WKH-RLQW5HVHDUFK&HQWUH¶VDVVHVVPHQWRI$IULFD¶V UHQHZDEOH SRWHQWLDO LQ0HWKRGRORJ\$ XWLOLVHG YHU\ WHFKQLFDO DFDGHPLFZRUN RU SXEOLFDWLRQV WKDWZRXOG EHGLI¿FXOWWRUHSOLFDWHDVUHTXLUHG

Table 10: Openness and ease of use assessment

Method Openness and Ease of Use Score (1-5)A 7KHRXWSXWVZHUHSUHVHQWHGDVFOHDUDQGXQGHUVWDQGDEOHJUDSKLFV

The methodology used to calculate hydro potential, taken from a previous research SDSHUZDVYHU\FRPSOH[DQGVFLHQWL¿FDQGWKHUHIRUHRQO\XVDEOHDVJLYHQ$OORIWKHRWKHUFDOFXODWLRQVZHUHHDVLO\UHSOLFDEOH

4

B 7KHUHZDVDODFNRIFODULW\LQVRPHRIWKHDVVXPSWLRQVDQGPRGHOPHFKDQLFVZKLFKZRXOGKLQGHUHDV\UHSOLFDWLRQRIWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\HVSHFLDOO\ZKHQFRQVLGHULQJWKHVSHFL¿FLW\RIWKHGDWDVRXUFHV

2

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5

D 7KH1HWZRUN3ODQQHULVIUHHO\DYDLODEOHDQGXVDEOHRQOLQH 5

E 7KHPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVFOHDUO\RXWOLQHGWRDOORZIRUUHSOLFDWLRQGHSHQGLQJRQGDWDDYDLODELOLW\

F 7KH,QWL*,6VRIWZDUHFDQEHGRZQORDGHGIURPWKH&,(0$7ZHEVLWHDOWKRXJKUHSOLFDWLRQZRXOGUHTXLUHWKHSXUFKDVHRIWKHFRPPHUFLDO$UF*,6ZHEVLWH7KH(&2:5(;SODWIRUPDQGWKHVRRQWREHLQWHJUDWHG,QWL*,6DUHIUHHRIFKDUJHDQGHDV\WR¿QGRQOLQH

4

G *(26,0DQGWKHRWKHUFRPSOHPHQWDU\,('WRROVDUHFRPPHUFLDO2QO\WKH,('PDSSLQJSODWIRUPVDUHDYDLODEOHIUHHRIFKDUJH7KHLQWHUQDOPHFKDQLVPVRIWKH*(26,0VRIWZDUHZKLFKZHUHXVHGWRFDOFXODWHWKHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQIURPWKHVWDWHGLQSXWVZHUHQRWSXEOLVKHG7KHUHIRUHUHSOLFDELOLW\ZLWKRXWSXUFKDVLQJWKHVRIWZDUHZRXOGQRWEHSRVVLEOH8VDELOLW\ZDVORZDVDGD\WUDLQLQJFRXUVHZDVUHTXLUHGSULRUWRXVH

1

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2

I 7KHLQGH[DQGLWVPHWKRGRORJ\DUHIUHHO\DYDLODEOHRQOLQH+RZHYHUWKHVRXUFHVXVHGIRUHDFKLQGLFDWRUZHUHQRWJLYHQFOHDUO\

2


Method Openness and Ease of Use Score (1-5)

J 7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\LVIUHHO\DYDLODEOHRQOLQHDQGLVYHU\VLPSOHUHSOLFDWH7KHOLVWRIUHPRWHLQGLFDWRUVDQGWKHLUZHLJKWLQJVZHUHFOHDUO\JLYHQ

5

K The methodology is freely available online and the sources, inputs and mechanics ZHUHZHOOH[SODLQHG5HSOLFDWLRQZRXOGEHYHU\SRVVLEOH

5

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2

3.9 INTEROPERABILITY WITH OTHER PLANNING METHODOLOGIES OR TOOLS

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Table 11: Interoperability assessments

Method ,QWHURSHUDELOLW\ZLWK2WKHU3ODQQLQJ0HWKRGRORJLHVRU7RROV Score (1-5)A This is a high level methodology that aims to provide an indicative assessment

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5

B 7KHLQWHURSHUDELOLW\RIWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\LVUHODWLYHO\ORZGXHWRLWVDLPRIYDOLGDWLQJWKHXVHRI*,6IRUHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQQLQJUDWKHUWKDQWRIDFLOLWDWHDQGIRUPSDUWRIDSODQQLQJSURFHVV+RZHYHUWKHRXWSXWVFRXOGWKHRUHWLFDOO\EHXVHGWRIHHGLQWRDV\VWHPGHVLJQWRRO

C 7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVGHVLJQHGSXUHO\DVDQRSSRUWXQLW\DVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJ\and therefore the output gives a strong indication as to the relative costs of different HOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQVLQDVHWORFDWLRQ$V\VWHPGHVLJQWRROZRXOGWKHQEHXWLOLVHGIRUDVSHFL¿HGUHJLRQWRSURJUHVVWKHSODQQLQJSURFHVV

5


Method ,QWHURSHUDELOLW\ZLWK2WKHU3ODQQLQJ0HWKRGRORJLHVRU7RROV Score (1-5)

D 7KH1HWZRUN3ODQQHULVQRWSXUHO\DQRSSRUWXQLW\DVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJ\DVLWFUHDWHVDIXOOEXWVLPSOL¿HGV\VWHPGHVLJQLQRUGHUWRFDOFXODWHWKHOHDVWFRVWRSWLRQ7KHUHIRUHWKHRXWSXWRYHUODSVZLWKVRPHV\VWHPGHVLJQWRROVDOWKRXJKthese could still easily be used to perform the detailed technical assessment required WRSURJUHVVWRODWHUSODQQLQJVWDJHV

E 7KHRXWSXWRIWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\LVQRWVLWHVSHFL¿FEXWSURYLGHVLQGLFDWLYHOHYHOLVHGFRVWRIHQHUJ\HVWLPDWHVIRUWKHHQWLUHFRXQWU\,WVXWLOLVDWLRQZLOOSUHFHGHDQGEHFRPSOHWHO\FRPSDWLEOHZLWKWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIPRUHGHWDLOHGVFHQDULRV

5

F The cost estimate for different technologies produced by IntiGIS are indicators IRUVWDNHKROGHUVDQGLQYHVWRUVWRXVHLQGHYHORSLQJPRUHGHWDLOHGVWXGLHV7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\GRHVQRWWU\WROLQNGLUHFWO\ZLWKDQ\RWKHUWRROV

5

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5

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1$

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5

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5

K The aim of this methodology is to guide the planning process through the SULRULWLVDWLRQRIDUHDVIRUHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ)XUWKHUWRROVFRXOGWKHQEHXVHGWRGHYHORSDQHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQIRUWKHVHDUHDV

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5

3.10 COST AND LEVEL OF TRAINING REQUIRED

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Table 12: Cost and training assessment

Method &RVWDQG/HYHORI7UDLQLQJ5HTXLUHG Score (1-5)A 7KHUHSRUWVDUHIUHHO\DYDLODEOHRQOLQHDVZHOODVWKH*,6PDSVSURGXFHG+RZHYHU

*,6VRIWZDUHDQGWUDLQLQJZRXOGEHUHTXLUHGWRUHSOLFDWHWKLVSURMHFW

B *,6VRIWZDUHDQGWUDLQLQJZRXOGEHUHTXLUHGWRUHSOLFDWHWKLVSURMHFW

C 7KH81'(6$SODWIRUPLVIUHHWRDFFHVVDQGWKHPHWKRGRORJ\KDVEHHQSXEOLVKHGLQDFDGHPLFMRXUQDOVDQGVLWHVVXFKDV6FLHQFH'LUHFW*,6VRIWZDUHDQGWUDLQLQJZRXOGEHUHTXLUHGWRUHSOLFDWHWKLVSURMHFW

D 7KH1HWZRUN3ODQQHUPHWKRGRORJ\XWLOLVHV*,6WRROVEXWWKHLQWHUIDFHIRUWKHXVHULVIDLUO\VLPSOHDQGUHTXLUHVQRSUHYLRXVWUDLQLQJ2QOLQHWXWRULDOVDUHDYDLODEOHRQWKHKRVWVLWHDQGFDQEHGRQHLQGHSHQGHQWO\

5

E *,6VRIWZDUHDQGWUDLQLQJZRXOGEHUHTXLUHGWRUHSOLFDWHWKLVSURMHFWDOWKRXJKWKHPHWKRGRORJ\FRXOGSRWHQWLDOO\EHUHSOLFDWHGXVLQJ0LFURVRIWRI¿FHEDVHGVSUHDGVKHHWPRGHOOLQJ

4

F 7KH,QWL*,6WRRORQFHKRVWHGE\(&2:5(;ZLOOEHIUHHWRXVH,IXVHGLQGHSHQGHQWO\WKHQ$UF*,6ZRXOGEHUHTXLUHGFRVWVVKRZQDERYH,QWL*,6RIIHUVVHOIOHDUQLQJWXWRULDOVIRULQGHSHQGHQWXVHUV

4

)URPGLVFXVVLRQZLWK(VUL(VULLVDQLQWHUQDWLRQDOVXSSOLHURIJHRJUDSKLFLQIRUPDWLRQV\VWHPVRIWZDUH

ZHE*,6DQGJHRGDWDEDVHPDQDJHPHQWDSSOLFDWLRQV

KWWSTJLVRUJHQVLWH , KWWSVJUDVVRVJHRRUJ


Method &RVWDQG/HYHORI7UDLQLQJ5HTXLUHG Score (1-5)

G ,('¶V*(26,0VRIWZDUHLVDFRPPHUFLDOWRROZLWKWKHFRVWGHSHQGLQJRQWKHXVHU¶VRUJDQLVDWLRQDQGQXPEHURIOLFHQFHV7KHOHYHORIWUDLQLQJUHTXLUHGLVQRWLQVLJQL¿FDQWDQGLVFRYHUHGE\DGD\FRXUVH

2

H 7KHIXOO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ0DVWHU3ODQLVDYDLODEOHIRUIUHHRQOLQHEXWUHSOLFDWLRQRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\LVXQIHDVLEOHGXHWRWKH¿QDQFLDOUHVRXUFHVDQGWHFKQLFDONQRZKRZUHTXLUHG

1

I 1RFRVWRUWUDLQLQJLVUHTXLUHGWRXVHWKHSXEOLVKHGUDQNLQJVEXWUHSOLFDWLRQZRXOGrequire substantial time and cost to identify and collect the sources required for each FRXQWU\IRUHDFKLGHQWL¿HU

1

J 1RFRVWRUWUDLQLQJLVUHTXLUHGWRXVHRUUHSOLFDWHWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\ 5

K *,6VRIWZDUHDQGWUDLQLQJZRXOGEHUHTXLUHGWRUHSOLFDWHWKLVSURMHFW

L *,6VRIWZDUHDQGWUDLQLQJZRXOGEHUHTXLUHGWRUHSOLFDWHWKLVSURMHFW7UDLQLQJZRXOGDOVREHUHTXLUHGWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHQHWZRUNRSWLPLVDWLRQDOJRULWKPXWLOLVHGLQWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\

2

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4. CONCLUSION

7KHDLPRIWKLVUHSRUWDVWKH¿UVWGHOLYHUDEOHRIWKH0DUNHW,QWHOOLJHQFHEXVLQHVVOLQHRIWKH$IULFDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQN¶V0DUNHW'HYHORSPHQW3URMHFWLVWRDQDO\VHWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVDYDLODEOHWRVWDNHKROGHUVLQ$IULFDWRDVVHVVWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUPLQLJULGV

7KH LGHQWL¿FDWLRQ DQG DVVHVVPHQW RI WKHVH µRSSRUWXQLW\ DVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJLHV¶ZLOO WKHQ IRUP WKH IRXQGDWLRQ IRUthe second deliverable, the creation of a standard opportunity assessment methodology that can be used to generate DFWLRQDEOHFRPSDUDEOHGDWDDFURVV$IULFDQFRXQWULHV,WLVQRWZLWKLQWKHVFRSHRIWKLVUHSRUWWRSURYLGHDQRSLQLRQRQWKHµLGHDO¶RUEHVWSUDFWLFHPHWKRGRORJ\EXWRQO\WRDFKLHYHDJRRGXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHUHOHYDQWPHWKRGRORJLHVDQGSUHVHQWWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHDVVHVVPHQWV

7KHUHLVDZLGHUDQJHRIPHWKRGRORJLHVDQGWRROVDYDLODEOHLQWKLVVHFWRUZLWKPRVWXVLQJ*,6EDVHGGDWDVRXUFHVDQGWKHPDMRULW\XWLOLVLQJ*,6LQWKHPHFKDQLFVRIWKHPHWKRGRORJ\DVZHOO+RZHYHUWKHUHODWLYHLPPDWXULW\RIWKHVHPHWKRGRORJLHVFRPELQHGZLWKWKHLVVXHVRIGDWDDYDLODELOLW\DQGTXDOLW\LQ$IULFDPHDQVWKDWWKHUHDUHVWLOOVXEVWDQWLDOGLIIHUHQFHVIRXQGDPRQJWKHPLQWHUPVRIWKHFULWHULDDVVHVVHG

In terms of relevance to stakeholders: Although most had a clear developer and decision maker perspective, the lack RIFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIFHUWDLQNH\IDFWRUVVXFKDVH[SHFWHGGHPDQGPHDQWWKDWWKHFRQFOXVLRQVRIVRPHPHWKRGRORJLHVKDGOLPLWHGUHOHYDQFH,QDGGLWLRQIRXURIWKHWZHOYHPHWKRGRORJLHVGLGQRWFRQVLGHUWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIVRXUFHVRIJHQHUDWLRQZLWKLQWKHFRXQWU\RUWDUJHWUHJLRQHLWKHUQRWFRQVLGHULQJWKHVXSSO\VLGHRIWKHRSSRUWXQLW\RUUHO\LQJRQDVVXPSWLRQV

Relevance and quality of outputs: &ORVHO\OLQNHGWRWKHUHOHYDQFHWRVWDNHKROGHUVWKHODFNRIDYDLODEOHGDWDZDVIRXQGWREHWKHPRVWFRPPRQFDXVHRIYDULDWLRQREVHUYHGLQWKHRXWSXWV0HWKRGRORJLHVZLWK*,6GDWDEDVHVZHUHDEOHWRSURGXFHYHU\FOHDUDQGHQJDJLQJYLVXDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQVRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQW\SHVRUOHDVWFRVWJHQHUDWLRQRSWLRQV7KRVHXVLQJUHPRWHGDWDRUKLJKHUOHYHOVRXUFHVZHUHXQDEOHWRPDWFKWKLVFODULW\DQGUHVROXWLRQ$VPHQWLRQHGLQWKHrelevance to stakeholders section, a lack of data for key parameters also limited the type of comparisons and conclusions SRVVLEOHIRUVRPHPHWKRGRORJLHV

Data requirements: 2QO\WZRRIWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVLQFRUSRUDWHG¿HOGZRUNDQGJURXQGOHYHOGDWDFROOHFWLRQDQGWKHVHZHUHIRUSURMHFWVGHYHORSLQJDFRXQWU\¶V¶HOHFWUL¿FDWLRQPDVWHUSODQ7KHVFDOHRIWLPHDQGUHVRXUFHVUHTXLUHGWRHIIHFWLYHO\FRQGXFWVXFKUHVHDUFKPHDQWWKDWPRVWPHWKRGRORJLHVLQVWHDGXWLOLVHGDYDULHW\RIH[LVWLQJVWXGLHVUHPRWHGDWDVHWVDQGH[WUDSRODWLRQV0DQ\RIWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVZHUHDFDGHPLFLQQDWXUHDQGWKXVGLGQRWKDYHDFFHVVWRWKHUHVRXUFHVPDGHDYDLODEOHWKURXJKDQLQWHUQDWLRQDORUJRYHUQPHQWIXQGHGSURMHFW

7KHVRXUFHVLQ$IULFDWHQGHGWREHWZRWRVL[\HDUVROGHYHQIRUPRUHVWDWLFIDFWRUVVXFKDVLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGWKHUHZDVDODFNRIJRYHUQPHQWVRXUFHVLQWKHPHWKRGRORJLHV7KLVZDVVRPHZKDWVXUSULVLQJVLQFHGDWDVXFKDVWKHORFDWLRQRILQIUDVWUXFWXUHRUWKHVL]HVRIDFRXQWU\¶VKHDOWKFHQWUHVZRXOGEHKHOGE\WKHUHOHYDQWPLQLVWULHV7KLVSRLQWVWRDODFNRIHDV\DFFHVVWRWKHVHVRXUFHVDQGWRWKHQHHGIRUHVWDEOLVKHGUHODWLRQVKLSVZLWKWKHPLQLVWULHV

Handling of data paucity: *LYHQWKHODFNRIXSWRGDWHJURXQGOHYHOGDWDPRVWPHWKRGRORJLHVKDGWRGHDOZLWKGDWDSDXFLW\7KHPRVWFRPPRQDSSURDFKHVZHUH

• Designing the methodology around the available data sources• 8WLOLVLQJROGHUGDWDVRXUFHVLIXSWRGDWHRQHVZHUHQRWDYDLODEOH• (VWLPDWLQJRUH[WUDSRODWLQJGDWDIURPVLPLODUFRXQWULHVRUWKHRUHWLFDOIRUPXODV• 6WDNHKROGHUFRQVXOWDWLRQV

9DOXHVIRUZKLFKWKHUHZHUHVRXUFHVVXFKDVWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRUFRVWFKDUDFWHULVWLFVIRUDFHUWDLQW\SHRIPLQLJULGZHUHFRPPRQO\JLYHQDSSUR[LPDWHYDOXHV7KHVHFRXOGEHHDVLO\UHIHUHQFHGDJDLQVWLQGXVWU\YDOXHVDQGVHOHFWHGJOREDOFDVHVWXGLHVEXWZHUHFRXQWU\RUVLWXDWLRQVSHFL¿F6WDNHKROGHUFRQVXOWDWLRQVZHUHVRPHWLPHVXVHGWRSURYLGHDORFDOFRQWH[WLQWKHVHFDVHV


)RUGDWDVHWVRQIRUH[DPSOHUHVRXUFHDYDLODELOLW\WKHPRVWFRPPRQVROXWLRQZDVWRGHYHORSWKHPHWKRGRORJ\DURXQGWKHDYDLODEOHVRXUFHV$QRWKHUWHFKQLTXHREVHUYHGLQVHYHUDOPHWKRGRORJLHVZDVWRXVHWKHPLVVLQJIDFWRUDVDYDULDEOHJLYLQJWKHRXWSXWRYHUDUDQJHRUVHOHFWLRQRIYDOXHV7KLVDOORZHGIRUWKHLGHQWL¿FDWLRQRIRXWSXWYDOXHVDQGUHVXOWVEXWOHIWWKHPHWKRGRORJ\OLPLWHGLQVRPHDVSHFWVVXFKDVWKHVSDWLDOPDSSLQJRIVROXWLRQV

Software requirements:7KHYDVWPDMRULW\RI WKHPHWKRGRORJLHVH[DPLQHGXWLOLVHG*,6VRIWZDUHZKLOHD IHZQHHGHGQRVRIWZDUHRUZHUHKRVWHGRQOLQH7KHVRIWZDUHUHTXLUHPHQWVIRU*,6ZHUHQRWUHVWULFWLYHZLWKWKHPLQLPXPRSHUDWLQJUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUSURJUDPVVXFKDV$UF*,6EHLQJEHORZWKHVSHFL¿FDWLRQVRIVWDQGDUGGHVNWRSRUODSWRSFRPSXWHUV

Robustness: 7KHWZRPRVWFRPPRQLVVXHVDIIHFWLQJWKHUREXVWQHVVRIWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVZHUHDUHOLDQFHRQRXWRIGDWHRULQDFFXUDWHVRXUFHVIRUNH\SDUDPHWHUVDQGWKHFKRLFHRIZHLJKWLQJVRUWKUHVKROGV6HYHUDORIWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVGHSOR\HGsensitivity analyses to account for these shortcomings, and one methodology focused entirely on demand-led prioritisation of settlements in order to negate the high sensitivity of supply-led calculations on the estimation of performance and cost FKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIWKHGLIIHUHQWJHQHUDWLRQRSWLRQV

Openness and ease of use: 7KHHDVHRIDFFHVVDQGRIXVHZHUHFRQVLGHUHGIRUWRROEDVHGPHWKRGRORJLHVZKLOHQRQWRROPHWKRGRORJLHVZHUHDVVHVVHGIRUWKHHDVHZLWKZKLFKWKHPHWKRGRORJ\FRXOGEHUHSOLFDWHG,WZDVIRXQGWKDWWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVYDULHGFRQVLGHUDEO\ LQ WKHFODULW\DQGRSHQQHVVRI WKHPHFKDQLFVDQG LQSXW VRXUFHVXWLOLVHG7KHVSOLWEHWZHHQFRPPHUFLDODQGQRQFRPPHUFLDOPHWKRGRORJLHVZDVDNH\LQGLFDWRUIRUWKLVGXHWRFRPPHUFLDOQRQGLVFORVXUHLQWHOOHFWXDOSURSHUW\DOWKRXJKVRPHDFDGHPLFPHWKRGRORJLHVZHUHDOVRVWLOOSRRUO\H[SODLQHG

2YHUDOOKRZHYHUWKHUHSOLFDWLRQDQGXVHRIPHWKRGRORJLHVZDVIRXQGWREHVXEVWDQWLDOO\PRUHOLPLWHGE\WKH*,6WUDLQLQJUHTXLUHGDQG WKHDYDLODELOLW\RI UHOHYDQWGDWDVRXUFHV WKDQE\RWKHU IDFWRUV:LWKRQO\D IHZH[FHSWLRQV WKH WHFKQLFDOXQGHUVWDQGLQJUHTXLUHGZDVIRXQGQRWWREHDSUREOHPGXHLQVRPHFDVHVWRWKHDYDLODELOLW\RIWRROVVXFKDVWKHRQOLQH1HWZRUN3ODQQHU

Interoperability with other planning tools: 7KHPDMRULW\RIPHWKRGRORJLHVKDGKLJKLQWHURSHUDELOLW\GXHSULPDULO\WRWKHfact that opportunity assessment methodologies are meant to identify and assess opportunities for the development of UXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQVDQGOD\WKHIRXQGDWLRQIRUWKHXVHRIRWKHUGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRROV)RUH[DPSOHV\VWHPGHVLJQWRROVVXFKDV+20(5FDQLQWHJUDWHWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHRSSRUWXQLW\DVVHVVPHQWDVLQSXWSDUDPHWHUV,QWHURSHUDELOLW\LVQRWDFRQFHUQEHFDXVHWKHSURJUDPVDUHQRWUHTXLUHGWRLQWHUDFWDXWRPDWLFDOO\DQGLQGHSHQGHQWO\RIXVHUFRQWURO

Cost and level of training required: &RPPHUFLDO*,6VRIWZDUHDQGDVVRFLDWHGWRROVFRVWLQUDQJHRIDIHZWKRXVDQGSRXQGVD\HDUZKLFK LVQRWFRQVLGHUHGSURKLELWLYHO\H[SHQVLYHIRURUJDQLVDWLRQVXWLOLVLQJVSDWLDOPDSSLQJRQDUHJXODUEDVLV)RURUJDQLVDWLRQVWKDWXVH*,6OHVVIUHTXHQWO\VRPHIUHHPXOWLIXQFWLRQVRIWZDUHSDFNDJHVDUHDYDLODEOH

7KHWUDLQLQJUHTXLUHGLVSHUKDSVWKHODUJHVWEDUULHUWRWKHXSWDNHRI*,6EDVHGPHWKRGRORJLHVDQGWRROVZLWKDGD\WUDLQLQJFRXUVHRIIHUHGIRU,('¶V*HR6LPWRRODQGPXOWLSOHRQOLQHDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOFRXUVHVIRUVRIWZDUHVXFKDV$UF*,6+RZHYHUWKLVVNLOOVHWZLOOEHEURDGO\DSSOLFDEOHWRSODQQLQJRUJDQLVDWLRQVDQGRWKHUHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQVWDNHKROGHUVDQGZLOOEHFRPHDVWDQGDUGSDUWRIWKHRUJDQLVDWLRQDOVWUXFWXUHDVWKHXVHRI*,6FRQWLQXHVWRH[SDQGDFURVV$IULFD7KHUHIRUHWKHWUDLQLQJZLOODOPRVWFHUWDLQO\EHDORQJWHUPLQYHVWPHQWUDWKHUWKDQDSURMHFWH[SHQVH

NEXT STEPS

7KLVUHSRUWKDVVKRZQWKHYDULDWLRQVLQWKHPHWKRGRORJLHVDYDLODEOHWRVWDNHKROGHUVLQ$IULFD7KHLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVFKHFNOLVWLQ)LJXUHVKRZVWKDWQRPHWKRGRORJ\FRQVLGHUHGDOORIWKHSDUDPHWHUVDQGWKDWRQO\WZRSDUDPHWHUVZHUHFRQVLGHUHGE\WKHPDMRULW\RIPHWKRGRORJLHV6LPLODUO\WKHPHWKRGRORJLHVKDGPDQ\GLIIHUHQWDSSURDFKHVWRRWKHUDVSHFWVVXFKDVKDQGOLQJRIGDWDSDXFLW\VL]HDQGUHVROXWLRQRIWDUJHWDUHDDQGW\SHVRIVRXUFHVXVHG

7KHVHFRQGGHOLYHUDEOHRI WKLVSURMHFW WKH ³FUHDWLRQRU FKRLFHRIDQRSSRUWXQLW\DVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGRORJ\ LQRUGHU WRJHQHUDWHFRPSDUDEOHGDWDDFURVVFRXQWULHV´ZLOOGUDZKHDYLO\IURPWKH¿QGLQJVRIWKLVUHSRUW7KHUHLVFOHDUVFRSHIRUcombining various aspects of the methodologies to develop a template methodology that can to be used across Africa to DVVHVVWKHSRWHQWLDORIJUHHQPLQLJULGVLQUXUDODUHDV


ANNEX: METHODOLOGY SUMMARY SHEETS

METHODOLOGY A: *,6%$6(' &267 &203$5,621 2) 62/$5 39 0,1,+<'52 ',(6(/ $1' *5,'(;7(16,21)25$)5,&$(&-2,175(6($5&+&200,66,216=$%26(7$/

Methodology Type:Supply-led

Coverage:Africa

Uses Spatial Mapping:<HV

Summary:7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVGHYHORSHGE\WKH-RLQW5HVHDUFK&RPPLVVLRQLQDVHULHVRIDQDO\VHVIURPWRWRLGHQWLI\WKHSRWHQWLDORIGLIIHUHQWUHQHZDEOHRSWLRQV2IVSHFL¿FFRQVLGHUDWLRQZDVWKHYDULDQFHLQGLHVHOFRVWVEHWZHHQUXUDODQGXUEDQFRPPXQLWLHVDQGKRZWRFLUFXPQDYLJDWHWKHODFNRIFRPSUHKHQVLYHFRXQWU\OHYHOGDWD

7KHOHYHOLVHGFRVWVRIVRODU39PLQLK\GURDQGGLHVHOJHQHUDWLRQZHUHFRPSDUHGZLWKJULGH[WHQVLRQFRQVLGHUHGYLDEOHZLWKLQD¿[HGGLVWDQFHRIWKHH[LVWLQJJULGQHWZRUN/DWHUVWXGLHVLQFRUSRUDWHG¿[HGJULGH[WHQVLRQFRVWVDQGWKHDVVHVVPHQWRIPLQLK\GURSRWHQWLDO7KHFRVWHVWLPDWHVZHUHFRQVLGHUHGDJDLQVWWZR$ELOLW\WR3D\$73VFHQDULRVDQGVSDWLDOPDSSLQJZDVXVHGWRVKRZGLIIHUHQWO\FRORXUHGUHJLRQVDFURVV$IULFDZKHUHHDFKRSWLRQZDVWKHORZHVWFRVWVROXWLRQRUZKHUHQRRSWLRQVZHUHYLDEOHZLWKLQWKH$73VFHQDULR7KLVZDVFRPELQHGZLWKDSRSXODWLRQGHQVLW\PDSWRLQGLFDWHWKHSHUFHQWDJHRIWKHSRSXODWLRQEHVWVHUYHGE\HDFKHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQVROXWLRQ

Input Parameters: Sources:

5HQHZDEOHGDWDSolar irradiation 39*,6GDWDEDVH+HOLR&OLP5LYHUDYHUDJHDQQXDOÀRZUDWH %yGLV.'HYHORSPHQWRIDGDWDVHWIRUK\GURORJLFDOPRGHOOLQJ±

*OREDO5XQRII'DWD&HQWUHPico hydro performance and cost estimates

(QHUJ\SHGLDKWWSVHQHUJ\SHGLDLQIRZLNL3LFRB+\GURB3RZHU

1HWZRUNDQGHQHUJ\GDWDAccessibility and travel time WRPDMRUFLWLHV

1HOVRQ$(VWLPDWHGWUDYHOWLPHWRWKHQHDUHVWFLW\RIRUPRUHSHRSOHLQ\HDU

Diesel prices (national) *,=,QWHUQDWLRQDO)XHO3ULFHV%0=Transportation costs 8QLWHG1DWLRQV8QLYHUVLW\7KH6LJQL¿FDQFHRI7UDQVSRUW&RVWVLQ

$IULFD3ROLF\%ULHIQ([LVWLQJJULGQHWZRUN $IULFD,QIUDVWUXFWXUH&RXQWU\'LDJQRVWLF

.DLMXND(*,6DQG5XUDO(OHFWULFLW\3ODQQLQJLQ8JDQGD6]DER6HWDO%XLOGLQJWKH$IULFDQ5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\3ODWIRUP,QWHJUDWLQJ6XSSRUW7RROVIRU6XVWDLQDEOH(QHUJ\'HYHORSPHQWLQ$IULFD

*ULGH[WHQVLRQFRVW 0LQLVWU\RI1HZDQG5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\*RYHUQPHQWRI,QGLD(QHUJ\$FFHVV±'UDIW6XE*URXS5HSRUWS

Mechanics:7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVGHYHORSHGRYHUWKUHHVWDJHVZLWKWKHDGGLWLRQRIPLQLK\GURSRWHQWLDODVVHVVPHQWLQWKHVHFRQGSKDVHDQGXSGDWHGFRVWHVWLPDWHVDQGJULGH[WHQVLRQFRVWPHWKRGRORJ\LQWKHWKLUGSKDVH

In one of the outputs of this methodology, the Energy Solutions in Rural AfricaSDSHU6]DGRHWDOWKHORZHVWFRVWVROXWLRQRIHLWKHUGLHVHOJHQHUDWRUVJULGH[WHQVLRQRUVRODU39PLQLJULGVZDVFRPSDUHGDQGPDSSHGXVLQJ*,67KHYLDELOLW\RIDQRSWLRQZDVGH¿QHGE\WZR$73VFHQDULRVDQG(85N:KDQGWKHSRWHQWLDOSRSXODWLRQLQPLOOLRQVEHVWVHUYHGE\HDFKHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQZDVWKHQVKRZQIRUERWKWKUHVKROGV


Grid extension7KHERXQGDU\IRUWKHDUHDHOHFWUL¿HGXQGHUJULGH[WHQVLRQZDVVHWRQDFRQWLQHQWOHYHOWRDQGNPIURPKLJKPHGLXPDQGORZSRZHUOLQHVUHVSHFWLYHO\DQGZLWKLQWKLVERXQGDU\JULGH[WHQVLRQZDVFRQVLGHUHGHFRQRPLFDO7KHOHYHOLVHGFRVWRIHQHUJ\IRUGLHVHORUVRODU39ZDVFRQVLGHUHGZLWKLQWKHVHERXQGDULHVDQGLGHQWL¿HGVHSDUDWHO\IRUUHJLRQVZKHUHRQO\JULGH[WHQVLRQZDVYLDEOH7KH6XVWDLQDEOH(QHUJ\3ODQQLQJ/HDSIURJJLQJWKH(QHUJ\3RYHUW\*DSUHSRUWXSGDWHGWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\XVLQJD¿[HGJULGH[WHQVLRQFRVWRI(85FN:KNPLQVWHDGRIDVHWERXQGDU\

Diesel generation7KHORFDOFRVWRIGLHVHOZDVFDOFXODWHGE\DGGLQJWKHQDWLRQDO diesel prices to a transportation cost proportional to the travel WLPHLQFOXGLQJURDGRIIURDGDQGZDWHUEDVHGWUDYHOIURPWKH QHDUHVWPDMRUFLW\1HOVRQ>@-5&DFFHVVLELOLW\PDS$OO RWKHUYDULDEOHVVXFKDVGLHVHOJHQHUDWRUHI¿FLHQF\DQGYROXPH RIGLHVHOWUDQVSRUWHGSHUYHKLFOHZHUH¿[HG

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Mini-Hydro For the 5HQHZDEOH(QHUJLHVLQ$IULFDUHSRUW6]DERWKLVZDVIXUWKHUFRPELQHGZLWKFRQWLQHQWVFDOHDVVHVVPHQWVRIK\GURZLQGDQGELRPDVVUHVRXUFHVDOWKRXJKRQO\K\GURZDVJLYHQDOHYHOLVHGFRVWRIHOHFWULFLW\/&2(+\GURGDWDZHUHGHULYHGIURPDFRQWLQHQWDOVFDOHUHPRWHDVVHVVPHQWXVLQJJOREDOHOHYDWLRQGDWDVHWVWRDSSUR[LPDWHPHDQDQQXDOVWUHDPÀRZ

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Figure A.1: Diesel cost map

Figure A.2: Comparing the ůŽǁĞƐƚĐŽƐƚŽƉƟŽŶƐbetween the original methodology (including mini-hydro) and the updated methodology and costs in the Sustainable Energy Planning report.


Commentary: 7KLVZDVDKLJKOHYHOPHWKRGRORJ\WKDWGLGQRWLQFRUSRUDWHJURXQGOHYHORUSRSXODWLRQGDWDEXWQRQHWKHOHVVFDWDO\VHGDGGLWLRQDOPRUHGHWDLOHGZRUNLQWRFRPSDULVRQRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQV7KHFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIWUDYHOWLPHVIURPPDMRUFLWLHVWRFDOFXODWHGLHVHOFRVWVLVDQDSSURDFKWKDWKDVEHHQDGRSWHGZLGHO\EXWWKHODFNRIFRQVLGHUDWLRQof population factors (especially population density and economic situation) in this case meant that only indicative FRXQWU\OHYHODVVHVVPHQWVRIVRODU39DQGJULGH[WHQVLRQSRWHQWLDOZHUHSRVVLEOH

7KHUHPRWHK\GURUHVRXUFHDVVHVVPHQWWHFKQLTXHZDVYHU\XVHIXOIRUDUHVRXUFHWKDWXVXDOO\UHTXLUHVH[WHQVLYHGDWDFROOHFWLRQ&OHDUO\WKLVLQIRUPDWLRQZDVYHU\XVHIXODVDQLQGLFDWLYHFRXQWU\OHYHOHVWLPDWHRIPLQLK\GURSRWHQWLDOEXWLWFRXOGQRWEHXVHGLQLVRODWLRQZLWKRXWIXUWKHURQVLWHGDWDFROOHFWLRQ

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Highlights:

• Did not include population density or energy demand• )L[HGERXQGDULHVXVHGIRUJULGH[SDQVLRQ• 5HQHZDEOHHQHUJ\UHVRXUFHVFRQVLGHUHGVRODUDQGK\GURQRZLQGRUELRPDVV• 2QO\YDULDEOHLQWKHVRODU39FDOFXODWLRQZDVWKHVL]LQJRIWKH39V\VWHPV• 0LFURJULGZDVFRQVLGHUHGRQO\IRUVRODU39EXWQRWIRU39GLHVHOZLQG39RURWKHUK\EULGV\VWHPV• +\GURLQIRUPDWLRQRQO\DOORZVIRUDQHVWLPDWLRQRIWKHK\GURSRWHQWLDO

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METHODOLOGY B: *,6%$6('&203$5,6212)62/$5:,1''20(67,&$1'&(175$/,6('',(6(/$1' *5,' (;7(16,21 ,1 7+( 081,&,3$/,7< 2) /25&$ &(175( )25 (1(5*< (19,5210(17$1'7(&+12/2*<$1'32/<7(&+1,&81,9(56,7<2)0$'5,'-$0$'25-'20,1*8(=


Coverage:Municipality of Lorca, Murcia (Spain)

Spatial Mapping:<HV

Summary:9HUL¿HGXVLQJWKHPXQLFLSDOLW\RI/RUFDWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVGHYHORSHGE\UHVHDUFKHUVDW&(,0$7DQG(87,803WRYDOLGDWHWKHXVHRI*,6WRLGHQWLI\WKHDSSURSULDWHFRQYHQWLRQDORUUHQHZDEOHWHFKQRORJLHVIRUHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ&RPSDULQJVRODUZLQGGLHVHODQGJULGH[WHQVLRQDNP2UHVROXWLRQJULGZLWKOHDVWFRVWWHFKQRORJ\RSWLRQVZDVJHQHUDWHGXVLQJGHPDQGHVWLPDWLRQDQGSRSXODWLRQGHQVLW\WRGHWHUPLQHWKHORFDOORDG


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Demographic dataPopulation density Not Known

Economic values/residential demand 5(($WODVRIWKH6SDQLVK(OHFWULF'HPDQG,1'(/3URMHFW0DGULG

Mechanics:7KHFRVWRIHQHUJ\ZDVFDOFXODWHGIRUVRODU39ZLQGFHQWUDODQGGRPHVWLFVWDQGDORQHGLHVHODQGJULGH[WHQVLRQ7KHORDGOHYHOIRUHDFKSL[HOZDVFDOFXODWHGDVWKHKRXVHKROGGHQVLW\PXOWLSOLHGE\WKHGHPDQGOHYHOVZKLFKZHUHDWWULEXWHGEDVHGRQDPDWUL[RIHFRQRPLFOHYHODQGDYHUDJHKRXVHKROGVL]HVGLIIHUHQWIRUUHQHZDEOHDQGFHQWUDOLVHGV\VWHPV

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Distributed generation (diesel, solar PV, wind)7KHORDGFDOFXODWHGDERYHZDVXVHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHVFDOHRIWKHGLVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQV\VWHPUHTXLUHG7KHUHVXOWZDVFRPELQHGZLWKWKHUHVRXUFH\LHOGLQSXWVWRFDOFXODWHWKHDVVRFLDWHGFDSDFLW\IDFWRUV7KHOHYHOLVHGFRVWZDVWKHQIRXQGIRUHDFKWHFKQRORJ\RSWLRQXVLQJ¿[HGGHVLJQSDUDPHWHUVVXFKDV(85N:SLQYHVWPHQWVFRVWVDQGWKHORZHVWFRVWRSWLRQGLVSOD\HG


Figure B.1: The final lowest-cost model output

Commentary: 7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\SURYLGHGDFOHDUYLVXDOSUHVHQWDWLRQRIGLVWULEXWLRQRIOHDVWFRVWWHFKQRORJ\RSWLRQVZLWKWKHLQFOXVLRQRIDVLPSOHFRQVXPSWLRQHVWLPDWLRQEDVHGRQHFRQRPLFOHYHODQGKRXVHKROGVL]H7KLVZDVDFUXFLDOYDULDEOHWREHFRQVLGHUHGDVVKRZQLQWKHVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVEXWRQHWKDWLVQRWDOZD\VLQFOXGHGLQRWKHUVWXGLHVThe sensitivity analysis also highlighted the sensitivity on certain factors such as demand, storage life, fuel price and LQFLGHQWUDGLDWLRQ

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Highlights:• Included population density and energy demand• *ULGH[SDQVLRQFRVWDVVXPHG¿[HGFHQWUDOL]HGFRVWV• 5HQHZDEOHHQHUJ\UHVRXUFHVFRQVLGHUHGVRODUZLQGEXWQRWELRPDVVRUK\GUR• 0LFURJULGZDVFRQVLGHUHGRQO\IRUVRODU39EXWQRWIRU39GLHVHOZLQG39RUDQ\RWKHUW\SHRIK\EULGV\VWHP• +\GURLQIRUPDWLRQRQO\DOORZHGIRUDQHVWLPDWLRQRIWKHK\GURSRWHQWLDO

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METHODOLOGY C: *,6%$6('/2:(67&267$66(660(172)62/$5:,1'0,1,+<'52%,2*$6$1'',(6(/7(&+12/2*,(6$*$,167*5,'(;7(16,21&216,'(5,1*/$5*(0,1(5$/,1'8675<'(0$1'.7+52<$/,167,787(2)7(&+12/2*<'0(17,6))1(5,1,(7$/


Coverage:1LJHULDDQG(WKLRSLD

Spatial Mapping:<HV

Summary:7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVGHYHORSHGSULPDULO\E\WKH.7+5R\DO,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\WRDGGUHVVWKHSHUFHLYHGQHHGIRUDVWDQGDUGLVHGEDVLFWRRONLWWKDWFRXOGSURYLGHWKHIRXQGDWLRQRQZKLFKWREXLOGORFDOO\DSSURSULDWHWRRONLWV7KHPHWKRGRORJ\OHGWRWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKH8QLWH81'(6$RSHQVRXUFHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQWRROZKLFKJDYHDFRXQWU\ZLGHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQVROXWLRQWKDWFRQVLGHUHGWKHOHDVWFRVWRIHQHUJ\IRUHDFKSL[HOGHSHQGLQJRQWKHSDUDPHWHUVRIGLHVHOSULFHDQGHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQWLHU7KHWRWDOHVWLPDWHGFRVWRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQZDVWKHQJLYHQ7KHUHVXOWVRIWKHVHWZRSDSHUVZHUHLQFOXGHGLQWKH,($:RUOG(QHUJ\2XWORRN


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Demographic data

8VHUGHPDQG/HYHOV :RUOG%DQN*OREDO7UDFNLQJ)UDPHZRUNPopulation density ,($(QHUJ\$FFHVV'DWDEDVH

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Commentary: 7KHPHWKRGRORJ\ORRNHGDWFKDQJLQJLQYHVWPHQWFRVWVDQGUHWXUQVXSWRWRGHWHUPLQHWKHEHVWHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQ+RZHYHULWDVVXPHGLQVWDQWDQHRXVLPSOHPHQWDWLRQZKLFKZDVXQIHDVLEOHDQGSRWHQWLDOO\VNHZHGWKHUHVXOWVWRZDUGJULGH[WHQVLRQE\RPLWWLQJORQJOHDGLQWLPHV7KHPHWULFVHVSHFLDOO\WKHHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQWLHUVGH¿QHGE\WKH:RUOG%DQNDOLJQHGGLUHFWO\ZLWK6($//DQGXWLOLVHGUHODWLYHO\UHDGLO\DYDLODEOHGDWDVRXUFHV

Grid expansion*ULGH[SDQVLRQZDVDSSUR[LPDWHGXVLQJ$I'%¶VWUDQVPLVVLRQH[SDQVLRQSODQSOXVWKHDVVXPSWLRQRIFRQQHFWLQJDOOSODQQHGDQGH[LVWLQJSRZHUSODQWVDQGPLQHVWRWKHJULGYLD09OLQHVPD[LPXPN%\considering population data, the optimal on/off-grid split ZDVIRXQGIRUWKHUHPDLQLQJXQHOHFWUL¿HGSRSXODWLRQfactoring in the national grid electricity cost and distance to WKHJULG

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Renewable generation7KHFRVWZDVH[SUHVVHGDVERWKWKHOHYHOLVHGFRVWRIHQHUJ\DQGWKHWRWDOFRVWSHUKRXVHKROGZLWKIRXUNH\parameters used:

• Target level and quality of energy access• Population density• Local grid connection characteristics• Availability of local energy resources and

technology costs

•

Figure C.1: Optimal solutions for Nigeria and Ethiopia


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Figure C.2: Screenshot of the electrification option outputted by the model for tier 3 access with high diesel prices

Highlights:• Included population density and energy demand• *ULGH[SDQVLRQFRVWDVVXPHG¿[HGFHQWUDOL]HGFRVWV• 5HQHZDEOHHQHUJ\UHVRXUFHVFRQVLGHUHGVRODUZLQGEXWQRWELRPDVVRUK\GUR• 0LFURJULGZDVFRQVLGHUHGRQO\IRUVRODU39EXWQRWIRU39GLHVHOZLQG39RUDQ\RWKHUW\SHRIK\EULGV\VWHP• +\GURLQIRUPDWLRQRQO\DOORZHGIRUDQHVWLPDWLRQRIWKHK\GURSRWHQWLDO

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METHODOLOGY D: *,6%$6(' 23325781,7< $66(660(17 0(7+2'2/2*< 86,1* 7+( 1(7:25.3/$11(5722/&2/80%,$81,9(56,7<1.580$+81,9(56,7<2)6&,(1&($1'7(&+12/2*<.80$6,(1(5*<&(175().(0$86825(7$/


Coverage:Ghana

Spatial Mapping:<HV

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Financial/economic dataInterest rates %DQNRI*KDQD(FRQRPLFJURZWKUDWH %DQNRI*KDQD

Mechanics:1HWZRUN3ODQQHULVDGHGLFDWHGVXSSRUWWRROIRUGHVLJQDQGFRVWLQJRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQVGHYHORSHGE\0RGL5HVHDUFK*URXSDW&ROXPELD8QLYHUVLW\,WEXLOGVRQO\XSRQGDWDDYDLODEOHIRUDOOFRXQWULHVVRGRHVQRWFRQVLGHUZLQGK\GURRUELRPDVVUHVRXUFHV6RODU39LVRQO\FRQVLGHUHGIRURIIJULGDQGQRWPLQLJULGVROXWLRQV

7KHWRWDOFRVWRIWKHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQIRUYDULRXVSHQHWUDWLRQUDWHVLVWKHQJLYHQDQGDVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVLVSHUIRUPHGWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHUREXVWQHVVRIWKHUHFRPPHQGHGHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQVFHQDULRV


Initial conditions,QJHQHUDOWKHPRGHOVWDUWVZLWKJHRVSDWLDOGDWDVXFKDVVHWWOHPHQWORFDWLRQVDQGGLVWDQFHVWRWKH09JULGDQGVRFLRHFRQRPLFDQGGHPRJUDSKLFGDWDVXFKDVLQWHUHVWUDWHHFRQRPLFDQGSRSXODWLRQJURZWKUDWHDQGPHDQKRXVHKROGVL]HV

Figure D.2: Final cost of electrification by region and penetration rate

Demand'HPDQGLVWKHQFDOFXODWHGIURPWKHLQLWLDOFRQGLWLRQVZLWKPHDQdemand based on facility type (house, productive, commercial or LQVWLWXWLRQDODQGPHDQFXVWRPHUVL]H3RSXODWLRQJURZWKGDWDDUHSURMHFWHGRYHUSODQQLQJWLPHIUDPHVXVHGWRHVWLPDWHSHDNDQGWRWDOGHPDQGRYHUWKHSODQQLQJSHULRGIRUHDFKVHWWOHPHQW7KLVFDOFXODWLRQDOVRLQFOXGHVWKHWHQGHQF\IRUODUJHUVHWWOHPHQWVZLWKPRUHVHUYLFHIDFLOLWLHVKRVSLWDOVVFKRROVHWFWRJURZDWDODUJHUUDWHWKDQVPDOOHUORZHUVHUYLFHGVHWWOHPHQWV

(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQDOJRULWKP'HWDLOHGFRVWFRPSRQHQWVIRUWKHWKUHHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQVVRODU39GLHVHOJHQHUDWLRQDQGJULGH[WHQVLRQDUHLQSXWLQWRWKHPRGHOE\WKHXVHU&RVWFRPSRQHQWVLQFOXGHGLVFRXQWUDWHRSHUDWLRQDQGPDLQWHQDQFHFRVWVDQGFDSLWDOFRVWV

First, the three options are costed for each settlement, using the SURMHFWLRQVRYHUWKHSODQQLQJSHULRG7KHRIIJULGRSWLRQLVGH¿QHGDVVRODU39ZLWKEDFNXSGLHVHOJHQHUDWLRQWKHPLQLJULGLVGH¿QHGDVGLHVHOJHQHUDWLRQZLWK/9GLVWULEXWLRQDQGJULGH[WHQVLRQLVGH¿QHGDVLQWHUQDODQGH[WHUQDOFRVWVZKHUHLQWHUQDOFRVWVUHIHUWRWKH/9OLQHVWUDQVIRUPHUVDQGRWKHUHTXLSPHQWWKDWFRQQHFWVDKRXVHKROGDQGH[WHUQDOUHIHUVWRWKH09OLQHVFRQQHFWLQJWKHFRPPXQLW\WRWKHQHDUHVWQHWZRUN

7KHORZHVWGHFHQWUDOLVHGFRVWRSWLRQRIIJULGDQGPLQLJULGLVVHOHFWHGDQGWKHQFRPSDUHGDJDLQVWWKHLQWHUQDOFRVWVRIWKHJULGH[WHQVLRQIRUHDFKKRXVHKROG,IFKHDSHUWKHQWKHVHOHFWHGGHFHQWUDOLVHGRSWLRQLVVHOHFWHGDQGDOOVHWWOHPHQWVZKHUHJULGH[WHQVLRQLVFKHDSHVWDUHQRWHG$JHRVSDWLDODOJRULWKPWULHVWRFRQQHFWDOORIWKHVHWWOHPHQWVPDUNHGIRUJULGH[WHQVLRQZLWKLQWKHEXGJHWEDUULHUVHWE\WKHGLIIHUHQFHLQFRVWEHWZHHQWKHGHFHQWUDOLVHGRSWLRQDQGWKHWRWDOFRVWLQWHUQDODQGH[WHUQDORIJULGH[WHQVLRQIRUWKDWFRPPXQLW\,IWKLVLVQRWSRVVLEOHWKHQWKHOHDVW

Figure D.1: Grid infrastructure of Ghana. 2011.


Commentary: :KHQXVHGLQ*KDQDWKH1HWZRUN3ODQQHUWRROSURYLGHGDOHYHORIDFFXUDF\DERYHWKDWRIPHWKRGRORJLHVWKDWUHO\SUHGRPLQDQWO\RQUHPRWHJOREDORUVDWHOOLWHVRXUFHV7KHLQSXWRIVSHFL¿FSRSXODWLRQIDFWRUVVXFKDVHFRQRPLFDQGSRSXODWLRQJURZWKUDWHVDQGKRVSLWDOVDOORZHGIRUDPXFKPRUHDFFXUDWHGLVFRXQWHGWRWDOFRVWSURMHFWLRQIRUWKHFRXQWU\¶VHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQ

+RZHYHUWKHWRROZDVGHVLJQHGWRDXWRPDWLFDOO\SURYLGHWKHSULPDU\GDWDVHWVUHTXLUHGDQGWKHUHIRUHGLGQRWFRQVLGHUWHFKQRORJLHVVXFKDVPLQLK\GURRUELRPDVVIRUZKLFKFRXQWU\GDWDZHUHQRWUHDGLO\DYDLODEOH:LQGDOVRZDVQRWLQFOXGHGDQGWKHGH¿QLWLRQRIWKHPLQLJULGRSWLRQDVGLHVHOJHQHUDWLRQUDWKHUWKDQDUHQHZDEOHVRXUFHOLPLWHGWKHDSSOLFDELOLW\RIWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\IRUUHQHZDEOHPLQLJULGSURMHFWV

Highlights:

• 5HQHZDEOHHQHUJ\UHVRXUFHVFRQVLGHUHGVRODU• Population level data collection more accurate than remote data• Detailed energy demand analyses:

– 'HWDLOHGFRVWFRPSRQHQWVJLYHQIRUWKHWKUHHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQVVRODU39GLHVHOJHQHUDWLRQJULGH[WHQVLRQ

– 7KHRQO\PLQLJULGFRQVLGHUHGZDVVRODU39ZLWKGLHVHOEDFNXSJHQHUDWRUQRRWKHU5(RSWLRQVWDNHQinto account

– Took into account socio-economic and demographic data

Links:.HPDXVXRU)HWDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ3ODQQLQJ8VLQJ1HWZRUN3ODQQHU7RRO7KH&DVHRI*KDQD (OHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQQLQJXVLQJ1HWZRUN3ODQQHUWRRO7KHFDVHRI*KDQD


METHODOLOGY E: *,6%$6(' &203$5,621 2) 62/$5 :,1' $1' *5,' (;7(16,21 )25 9,(71$0+$12,,167,787(2)(1(5*<.41*8<(1


Coverage:Vietnam

Spatial Mapping:<HV

Summary:7KHPHWKRGRORJ\GLGQRWDLPWRLGHQWLI\WKHORZHVWFRVWHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQIRUUXUDOVHWWOHPHQWVLQ9LHWQDP,QVWHDGLWZDVDSUHOLPLQDU\DVVHVVPHQWRIWKHFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRIVRODUZLQGDQGGHFHQWUDOLVHGGLHVHOJHQHUDWLRQDJDLQVWJULGH[WHQVLRQ6HWWOHPHQWVSHFL¿FGDWDZHUHQRWFRQVLGHUHG7KHLQGLFDWLYHFRVWVRIHDFKRSWLRQZHUHFRPSDUHGIRUGLIIHUHQWGLVWDQFHVWRWKHJULGDQGKRXVHKROGGHQVLWLHV

'XHWRWKHODFNRIDYDLODEOHGDWDRQXQHOHFWUL¿HGFRPPXQLWLHVDQGJULGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQ9LHWQDPLWZDVSRVVLEOHRQO\to consider estimated variable ranges and indicate the proportion of populations that might be best served by the GLIIHUHQWHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQV


5HQHZDEOHGDWDSolar radiation 1$6$*OREDO6XUIDFH0HWHRURORJ\DQG6RODU(QHUJ\Wind speed 7UXH:LQG6ROXWLRQV:LQG(QHUJ\5HVRXUFH$WODVRI6RXWKHDVW$VLD

based on MesoMap, a meso-scale atmospheric simulation system and KLVWRULFDOZHDWKHUGDWDIURP861DWLRQDO&HQWHUIRU$WPRVSKHULF5HVHDUFK

Economic and technical estimates ,QVWLWXWHRI(QHUJ\1HZDQG5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\3ODQQLQJLQ9LHWQDP3RNKDUHO6(QHUJ\(FRQRPLFVRI&RRNLQJLQ+RXVHKROGVLQ1HSDO

1HWZRUNDQGHQHUJ\GDWD1HWZRUNJULGFKDUJHVDQGH[WHQVLRQcosts (estimated)

,QVWLWXWHRI(QHUJ\7KH0DVWHU3ODQIRU3RZHU'HYHORSPHQW6WDJH9,+DQRL9LHWQDP

Demographic data

/RDGSUR¿OH ,QVWLWXWHRI(QHUJ\1HZDQG5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\3ODQQLQJLQ9LHWQDP

Financial/economic data

Discount rate ,QVWLWXWHRI(QHUJ\7KH0DVWHU3ODQIRU3RZHU'HYHORSPHQW6WDJH9,+DQRL9LHWQDP

,QÀDWLRQXVHGIRU20HVFDODWLRQrate)

,QVWLWXWHRI(QHUJ\*XLGHOLQHVRQ,QYHVWPHQW$QDO\VLVIRU3RZHU1HWZRUN3ODQQLQJ3URMHFWV+DQRL9LHWQDP

Mechanics:7KHPHWKRGRORJ\XVHGWKUHHWHFKQRORJ\UHIHUHQFHFDVHVVRODU39RIDQG:S:ZLQGWXUELQHDJDLQVWJULGH[WHQVLRQDQGJDVROLQHJHQHUDWLRQ)LUVWWKHUHVRXUFHDYDLODELOLW\ZDVFRQYHUWHGWRFRVWRIHQHUJ\HVWLPDWHV91'N:KIRUVRODU39ZLQGDQGJDVROLQHJHQHUDWLRQXVLQJV\VWHPFKDUDFWHULVWLFVIURP,($1HZDQG5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\3ODQQLQJLQ9LHWQDP$W\SLFDOORDGSUR¿OHZDVWKHQFDOFXODWHGDQGXVHGWRFRPSDUHWKHFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRIWKHVHRSWLRQVZLWKJULGEDVHGHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ

7KHPHWKRGRORJ\GLGQRWFRQVLGHUVSHFL¿FVHWWOHPHQWVRUFRUUHVSRQGLQJIDFWRUVVXFKDVGHQVLW\RUGHPDQGEXWHVWLPDWHGW\SLFDOFRXQWU\ZLGHYDOXHVLHN:KGD\KRXVHKROGGHPDQG7KHOHYHOLVHGFRVWDQGFDSLWDOFRVWSHUFRQQHFWLRQZHUHWKHQIRXQGIRUHDFKRSWLRQZLWKKRXVHKROGGHQVLW\DVDYDULDEOHDQGXVHGWRDWWDLQHVWLPDWHVIRUWKHSURSRUWLRQRIWKHSRSXODWLRQWKDWFRXOGEHVWEHHOHFWUL¿HGZLWKHDFKRSWLRQ


Commentary: 6LPSOH/&2(FRPSDULVRQVZHUHPDGHXWLOLVLQJFRXQWU\VSHFL¿FLQIRUPDWLRQVXFKDVZKDWWHFKQRORJLHVZHUHORFDOO\DYDLODEOH1RFRXQWU\OHYHOUHVRXUFHDVVHVVPHQWVZHUHUHTXLUHGSDUWLDOO\GXHWRDODFNRIFRQVLGHUDWLRQIRUPLQLK\GURRUELRPDVV7KHJHQHUDWLRQFDOFXODWLRQVIRUHDFKWHFKQRORJ\ZHUHZHOOIRXQGHGDQGDFFXUDWH

7KHFULWLFDOOLPLWDWLRQZDVWKH/&2(FRPSDULVRQZKLFKXVHGWKHOHQJWKRIUHTXLUHG09OLQHDVDSDUDPHWHUGXHWRDODFNRIVHWWOHPHQWOHYHORUJULGQHWZRUNGDWD7KHUHIRUHWKH¿QGLQJRIZDVRIWKHUHODWLYHFRVWVDQGWKHUHIRUHWKHUHODWLYHSURSRUWLRQRIWKHSRSXODWLRQWKDWFRXOGEHHOHFWUL¿HGWKURXJKHDFKRSWLRQ7KHJULGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHRUVSHFL¿FFRPPXQLW\ORFDWLRQVZHUHQRWFRQVLGHUHGRUVSDWLDOO\PDSSHG

,IJULGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGSRSXODWLRQIDFWRUVZHUHLQFOXGHGFRPELQHGZLWKLQFUHDVHGDFFXUDF\RIWKHZLQGVSHHGGDWDDQGWKHUHVROXWLRQRIVRODUUDGLDWLRQGDWDWKHPHWKRGRORJ\¶VRXWSXWVZRXOGEHVLJQL¿FDQWO\PRUHDSSOLFDEOH

Highlights:• /RZHVWFRVWRSWLRQIRUGHFHQWUDOL]HGVRODUZLQGDQGGLHVHOJHQHUDWLRQYVJULGH[WHQVLRQ• )L[HGVRODU39ZLQGWXUELQHGLHVHOJHQHUDWRUVL]HV• )XHOFRVW¿[HGDWSHUFHQWDERYHPDUNHWUDWKHUWKDQGLVWDQFHGHSHQGHQW• LCOE comparison using the length of required MV line as a parameter

Links:.41JX\HQ$OWHUQDWLYHVWR*ULG([WHQVLRQIRU5XUDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ'HFHQWUDOLVHG5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\Technologies in Vietnam

Wind speed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

Solar6RODULUUDGLDWLRQZDVWDNHQIURPVDWHOOLWHGDWDDQGFRPELQHGZLWKVWDQGDUGFRVWDQGSHUIRUPDQFHHVWLPDWHVVXFKDV\HDUEDWWHU\OLIHDQG\HDU39PRGXOHOLIHWLPHWRDWWDLQDFRVWRIHQHUJ\

Diesel generation7KHORFDOO\DYDLODEOH0RGHO(0-DSDQHVHJHQHUDWRUZDVXVHGIRUFRPSDULVRQDVVXPLQJKRXUVFRQVHUYDWLYHXVDJHDQGON:K'LHVHOFRVWZDVHVWLPDWHGDVSHUFHQWDERYHPDUNHWUDWHDQGLWZDVDVVXPHGWKDWWKHIXOO:ZRXOGEHXWLOLVHG

Grid extension&RVWSDUDPHWHUVZHUHWDNHQIURP,QVWLWXWHRI(QHUJ\7KH0DVWHU3ODQIRU3RZHU'HYHORSPHQW6WDJH9,DQGWKH¿QDOFRVWZDVVKRZQDVDIXQFWLRQRIKRXVHKROGGHQVLW\DQGGLVWDQFHWRWKHJULG

Figure E.1: Mean wind speed at 10m height


METHODOLOGY F: (&2:5(; 0$33,1* 0(7+2'2/2*< $1' ,17,*,6 3/$11,1* 722/ (&2:$62%6(59$725<)255(1(:$%/((1(5*<$1'(1(5*<()),&,(1&<&,(0$7


Coverage:ECOWAS Region

Spatial Mapping:<HV

Summary:7KH(&2:5(;PDSSLQJPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVGHYHORSHGWRSURYLGHDFFXUDWHNQRZOHGJHRIH[LVWLQJDQGSODQQHGUHVRXUFHVDQGUHQHZDEOHDFWLYLWLHVLQWKH(&2:$6UHJLRQLQFOXGLQJVRODUZLQGELRPDVVK\GURDQGZDYHSURMHFWV7KH,QWL*,6WRROZDVGHYHORSHGWRFRPSDUHWKHOHYHOLVHGFRVWVRIGLIIHUHQWGHFHQWUDOLVHGWHFKQRORJLHVDQGWKHVHFRQGYHUVLRQ,QWL*,6ZLOOEHLQWHJUDWHGLQWR(&2:5(;WRDOORZIRUWHFKQRORJ\FRPSDULVRQVZLWKLQWKH(&2:$6UHJLRQ7KLVZLOOWKHQDOORZWKHXWLOLVDWLRQRIWKHVLJQL¿FDQWGDWDDYDLODEOHWKURXJK(&2:5(;IRUGHFHQWUDOLVHGSODQQLQJSURFHVVHV

Factors Considered: Sources (status to March 2016):

5HQHZDEOHGDWD6RODUUDGLDWLRQ'1,DQG*+, ECREEEE ([LVWLQJDQGSODQQHGVRODUSODQWV Country Info Indicators - OpenLinkDataWind speed :RUOG%DQN([LVWLQJDQGSODQQHGZLQGSODQWV DIVA-GIS+\GURUHVRXUFHVFRPLQJVRRQ $IULFDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQN*URXS([LVWLQJDQGSODQQHGVPDOOK\GURplants

$IULFDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQN*URXS

%LRFURSVWHPSHUDWXUHDQGprecipitation suitability (camelina, FDVKHZFDVVDYDFUDPEHJURXQGQXWMDWURSKDVZHHWVRUJKXP

86$,'GHYHORSHGE\1H[DQW

([LVWLQJDQGSODQQHGELRPDVVSODQWV -XDQ3DEOR%RUGD$QJHO&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRI+\EULG6\VWHPIRU5XUDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQZLWK5HQHZDEOH(QHUJLHV8VLQJ*HRJUDSKLF,QIRUPDWLRQ6\VWHP*,6

([LVWLQJDQGSODQQHGZDYHSODQWV -XDQ3DEOR%RUGD$QJHO&KDUDFWHUL]DWLRQRI+\EULG6\VWHPIRU5XUDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQZLWK5HQHZDEOH(QHUJLHV8VLQJ*HRJUDSKLF,QIRUPDWLRQ6\VWHP*,6

1HWZRUNDQGHQHUJ\GDWDConventional generators (large and medium hydro, coal, diesel, gas, heavy fuel)Transmission linesRoads5DLOZD\VGas pipelines

Demographic data

City populationsAdministration boundariesLand coverWater


Policy/political data

RE policies

REEE initiatives

Mechanics:

ECOWREX(&2:5(;LVDPDSSLQJPHWKRGVKRZLQJDOORIWKHUHOHYDQWGDWDIRUDUHQHZDEOHGHYHORSHULQWKH(&2:$6UHJLRQ'DWDFROOHFWHGE\(&5(((LVPDGHDYDLODEOHYLDD*,6PDSYLHZHUDQGLVDFFRPSDQLHGE\RQOLQHFRXQWU\SUR¿OHVPDSVDQDO\VHVDQGLQIRUPDWLRQRQH[LVWLQJVWDNHKROGHUV'HWDLOVRQWKHFKRLFHRIVRXUFHDQGKRZLWZDVLQWHUSUHWHGLVJLYHQRQWKH(&2:5(;ZHEVLWHOLQNHGEHORZ

$FRPSOHWHVSDWLDOGDWDLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLVXQGHUGHYHORSPHQWWRUHYDPSWKHPDSYLHZHURQ(&2:5(;ZKLFKZLOOWKHQEHIXOO\FRPSOLDQWZLWK2*&VHUYLFHVDQGLQOLQHZLWKWKH(XURSHDQGLUHFWLYH,163,5(

Figure F.1: Screenshot of the existing and planned wind plants with mean wind speed at 50m for the ECOWAS region


IntiGIS,QWL*,6LVDIUHHVRIWZDUHXVLQJ5*,6ZKLFKLVGHVLJQHGWRVXSSRUWUXUDOHOHFWUL¿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¿FDWLRQV\VWHP$VWKHVRIWZDUHLVXQGHUGHYHORSPHQWDIXOODQDO\VLVLVQRWSRVVLEOHDWWKLVWLPH

Figure F.2: IntiGIS screenshot showing mapping results

Commentary: (&2:5(;LVDFOHDUDQGXVHIXOPHWKRGWKDWKDVJLYHQSODQQHUVDQLGHDRIWKHDYDLODEOHUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\UHVRXUFHV6RODUDQGZLQGDVVHVVPHQWKDYHEHHQFRPSOHWHGDQGLQWHJUDWHGLQWR(&2:5(;DQGK\GURDVVHVVPHQWLVLQSURJUHVVDQGZLOOEHDGGHGWRWKH(&2:5(;PDSYLHZHUE\WKHHQGRI5HJDUGLQJELRPDVVRQO\SUHFLSLWDWLRQVDQGWHPSHUDWXUHDUHLQFOXGHGWRJLYHSODQQHUVDQLGHDRIWKHSRVVLEOHSODQWVWKDWFDQEHJURZQ

7KHPHWKRGRORJ\LVDJRRGVWDUWLQJSRLQWIRULQYHVWRUVLQUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\,WDOORZVWKHPWRKDYHDJRRGLGHDRIWKHHQHUJ\VLWXDWLRQLQDQ\FRXQWU\RIWKH(&2:$6UHJLRQWRNQRZWKHOHJLVODWLRQDQGWKHUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\DQGHQHUJ\HI¿FLHQF\LQLWLDWLYHVDQGWKHRQJRLQJDQGSODQQHGSURMHFWV+RZHYHULWGRHVQRWSURYLGHVSHFL¿FLQIRUPDWLRQWKDWZRXOGEHXVHIXOWRDUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQQHURURWKHUVWDNHKROGHUVDQGDOVRGRHVQRWSURYLGHLQIRUPDWLRQRQHQHUJ\GHPDQG

(&2:5(;LVZRUNLQJRQWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIHQHUJ\DFFHVVPDSVIRUWKH:HVW$IULFDQUHJLRQE\XVLQJDVHFRQGYHUVLRQRIWKHVRIWZDUH,QWL*,67KLVQHZVRIWZDUHLVVWLOOXQGHUGHYHORSPHQWDQGFRPHVIURPDFROODERUDWLRQDJUHHPHQWEHWZHHQ(&5(((&,(0$70DGULGDQG.1867*KDQD

Links:KWWSZZZHFRZUH[RUJKWWSZZZFLHPDWHVSRUWDOGR",'0 10


METHODOLOGY G:*,6%$6(',17(*5$7('585$/(/(&75,),&$7,213/$11,1*7+$7&216,'(56*5,'(;7(16,2160$//+<'52$1'%,20$66,1129$7,21(1(5*,('(9(/233(0(17

Methodology Type:Demand-led

Coverage:7DQ]DQLD%HQLQ0DOL1LJHU&HQWUDO$IULFD3RZHU3RRODQG&DPHURRQ

Spatial Mapping:<HV

Summary:7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\KDVEHHQLPSOHPHQWHGLQPXOWLSOHFRXQWULHV7KHFDVHVWXG\RI7DQ]DQLDLVXVHGKHUHEHFDXVHLWLQFOXGHVPRUHUHQHZDEOHUHVRXUFHGDWDWKDQRWKHUSURMHFWV7KHPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVXVHGWRGHYHORSWKH1DWLRQDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ3URJUDP3URVSHFWXV7KHEDVLVIRUWKH7DQ]DQLDQ(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ0DVWHU3ODQ,WFRQVLGHUVJULGH[WHQVLRQDQGVPDOOK\GURELRPDVVDQGGLHVHOPLQLJULGV

,('KDVGHYHORSHGVHYHUDOWRROVWKDWLQWHJUDWHWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\DQGWKHVHWRROVKDYHEHHQXWLOLVHGLQ,('¶VFRXQWU\OHYHOZRUN2QHVXFKWRROLV*(26,0D*,6EDVHGUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQQLQJWRROZKLFKLVXVHGWRGHVLJQDQGFRVWGLIIHUHQWGHFHQWUDOLVHGRSWLRQV2WKHUWRROVFRYHURQOLQH*,6LQWHUIDFLQJ*,06<6GHPDQGDQDO\VLVDQGJULGGHVLJQRSWLPLVDWLRQ*,6(/(&*,06<6LQSDUWLFXODUKDVEHHQXWLOLVHGLQPDQ\FRXQWULHVWRKRVWDQRQOLQH*,6SODWIRUPDOWKRXJKPDQ\YHUVLRQVVKRZRQO\WKHJULGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGSRSXODWLRQFHQWUHV


5HQHZDEOHGDWD([LVWLQJ6+36LWHV REA+\GURSRWHQWLDOVLWHV 7$1(6&2Agriculture industry locations Minister for Industry%LRPDVVSRWHQWLDOVLWHV */2%&29(5


Grid infrastructure *RRJOH(DUWK,('5($7$1(6&2Infrastructure URDGVDLUSRUWVUDLOZD\V

IED Secondary Research

Demographic data

%RXQGDULHV 0LQLVWU\RI/DQGVDQG+RXVLQJ,('5HVHDUFKVillages 1%67$1(6&2,('Population and households SURMHFWHG

1%6DQG,('

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IED Secondary Research

Mechanics:7KHPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVFDUULHGRXWPRVWO\WKURXJK*(26,0,('¶VUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQQHUVXSSRUWWRROEXLOGLQJSULPDULO\RIIJRYHUQPHQWDQGQDWLRQDOXWLOLW\GDWDVHWV


'HYHORSPHQWFHQWUHV±ZHLJKWHGEHQH¿WDQDO\VLV7KHUDQNLQJRIVHWWOHPHQWVZDVGRQHWKURXJKWKH,QGLFDWRURI3RWHQWLDO'HYHORSPHQW,3'WRROWRLGHQWLI\GHYHORSPHQWFHQWUHVLHVHWWOHPHQWVRIDWOHDVWLQKDELWDQWVZLWKH[LVWLQJVRFLDORUDGPLQLVWUDWLYHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVEXVLQHVVDFWLYLWLHVDQGJRRGURDGDFFHVVURDGVDVGH¿QHGE\WKH81'3+XPDQ'HYHORSPHQW,QGH[7KHWRSSHUFHQWRIWKHVHWWOHPHQWVDVUDQNHGE\,3'DUHGH¿QHGDVGHYHORSPHQWFHQWUHV

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*ULGH[SDQVLRQZDVODLGRXWLQIRXUSKDVHV7XUQNH\,,9ZLWK7XUQNH\,DQG,,UHIHUULQJWRJULGH[WHQVLRQVWKDWKDYHDOUHDG\EHHQSODQQHGRUUHTXHVWHGE\7$1(6&26HWWOHPHQWVLQODWHUSKDVHVZLOOEHEURXJKWZLWKLQUDQJHRIWKHJULGE\WKHSUHYLRXVSKDVHV7XUQNH\,,LVFXUUHQWO\EHLQJLPSOHPHQWHG7XUQNH\,,,ZLOOFRYHUVHWWOHPHQWVZLWKLQNPRIWKH09QHWZRUNDVRI3RSXODWLRQVL]HZLOOEHXVHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHWHFKQRORJ\XVHGZLWKdevelopment centres connected by MV lines, and other settlements of 1500 to 2000 inhabitants connected by WKUHHSKDVHOLQHVDQG6:(5WHFKQRORJ\

)LQDOO\7XUQNH\,9ZLOOFRQQHFWGHYHORSPHQWFHQWUHVZLWKLQNPRIWKHH[LVWLQJJULGDVRIDQGWKHQIXUWKHUVHWWOHPHQWVZLOOEHFRQQHFWHGE\09WKUHHSKDVHRU6:(5OLQHVGHSHQGLQJRQSRSXODWLRQVL]H

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7KHFULWHULDIRURIIJULGHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQZHUHDNPSUR[LPLW\WRDQLGHQWL¿HGVPDOOK\GURRUELRPDVVVRXUFHDQGPRUHWKDQLQKDELWDQWV)RUGHYHORSPHQWVLWHVZLWKRXWK\GURRUELRPDVVVRXUFHVGLHVHO39V\VWHPVZHUHVXJJHVWHG

Stand-alone systems for settlements smaller than 1500 LQKDELWDQWVQRWTXDQWL¿HGLQWKLVSODQ+\GURVLWHVLQJULGH[WHQVLRQDUHDVZHUHDOVRFRQVLGHUHGDVJHQHUDWLRQRSWLRQVIRUWKHJULGWRIHHGLQWRWKH)HHGLQ7DULIIVFKHPH

Figure G.1: Existing grid and planned extensions under Turnkey’s I-IV

Figure G.2: Identified potential small biomass


Commentary: 7KHPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVFOHDUDQGWKRURXJKEXWLWVDSSOLFDWLRQUHVXOWHGLQWKH5(UDWHRQO\LQFUHDVLQJIURPSHUFHQWLQWRDSURMHFWHGSHUFHQWLQ±EHORZWKH*RYHUQPHQW¶VWDUJHW7KLVZDVGXHWRWKHIDFWWKDWWKHSODQWDUJHWHGVRFLDODQGDGPLQLVWUDWLYHVWUXFWXUHVUDWKHUWKDQKRXVHKROGVZKLFKUHVXOWHGLQDVWURQJELDVWRZDUGVJULGFRQQHFWLRQ7KHUHZDVQRVHULRXVFRQVLGHUDWLRQJLYHQWRVWDQGDORQHV\VWHPVVRODUFRQWDLQHUVRURWKHUGLVWULEXWHGWHFKQRORJLHV

7KHPHWKRGRORJ\XWLOLVHGJRYHUQPHQWDQGXWLOLW\GDWDEDVHVDQGH[LVWLQJ¿HOGGDWDWRLGHQWLI\PLQLK\GURDQGELRPDVVVLWHV'HVSLWHWKHODFNRIIRFXVRQGLVWULEXWHGJHQHUDWLRQRUWKHFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIVRODURUZLQGUHVRXUFHVWKHXVHRIgovernment data sources provided clear support to government decision makers focused on settlement rather than KRXVHKROGHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ

$*,6RQOLQHSODWIRUPZDVFUHDWHGEDVHGRQWKHSUHOLPLQDU\ZRUNIRUWKLVSURMHFWWKH,5(3SURMHFWLQ+RZHYHUWKHSODWIRUPKDVQRWEHHQXSGDWHGVLQFHDQGGRHVQRWUHÀHFWWKH1DWLRQDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ3URJUDPGHVFULEHGDERYH

Highlights:• 7DUJHWHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRIVRFLDODQGDGPLQLVWUDWLYHVWUXFWXUHVUDWKHUWKDQDQH[WHQVLYHKRXVHKROGHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ

plan • 1RIXOOFRQVLGHUDWLRQJLYHQWRVWDQGDORQHV\VWHPVVRODUFRQWDLQHUVRURWKHUGLVWULEXWHGWHFKQRORJLHV• 8WLOLVHVJRYHUQPHQWDQGXWLOLW\GDWDEDVHVDQGH[LVWLQJ¿HOGGDWDWRLGHQWLI\PLQLK\GURDQGELRPDVVVLWHV• 6RODUDQGZLQGQRWFRQVLGHUHG

Links:

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METHODOLOGY H:7+(0$67(53/$1678'<21585$/(/(&75,),&$7,21%<5(1(:$%/((1(5*<,17+(.,1*'202)&$0%2',$-$3$1,17(51$7,21$/&223(5$7,21$*(1&<


Coverage:Cambodia

Spatial Mapping:Village level

Summary:7KH-DSDQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RRSHUDWLRQ$JHQF\SUHSDUHGDQ(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ0DVWHU3ODQIRU&DPERGLD6XEPLWWHGLQ-XQHLWEXLOWXSRQWZR\HDUVRIVWXG\ZRUNLQFOXGLQJRQVLWHGDWDFROOHFWLRQFRPPXQLW\FRQVXOWDWLRQVGHVNEDVHGUHVHDUFKDQGHQJDJHPHQWZLWKJRYHUQPHQWPLQLVWULHV0LFURK\GURVRODUELRPDVVZLQGDQGGLHVHOZHUHFRQVLGHUHGIRUPLQLJULGV7KHSODQUHSUHVHQWHGEHVWSUDFWLFHPHWKRGRORJ\DVLWZDVWKHPRVWFRPSUHKHQVLYHSODQIHDVLEOHIRUUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQLQWKHFRXQWU\

'XHWRWKHH[WHQVLYHQDWXUHRIWKHVWXG\DQGSODQRQO\WKHUHOHYDQWDVSHFWVKDYHEHHQDVVHVVHGIRUWKLVSURMHFW)RUH[DPSOHWKHUHZDVH[WHQVLYHFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIWKHSROLWLFDODQGHFRQRPLFIUDPHZRUNVLQSODFHZKLFKZHUHRXWVLGHWKHVFRSHRIWKLVSURMHFW

Factors Considered: Sources:

5HQHZDEOHGDWD0LFURK\GURVLWHVH[LVWLQJDQGpotential)

0LQLVWU\RI0LQHVDQG(QHUJ\0HULWHF1=0LQLVWU\RI)RUHLJQ$IIDLUVDQG7UDGH3UH,QYHVWPHQW6WXG\RI&RPPXQLW\6FDOH+\GUR3URMHFWV&DPERGLD

5LYHUÀRZUDWHV 0HULWHF:RUOG%DQN'HYHORSPHQWRI3LSHOLQHVIRU6PDOO+\GURSRZHU3URMHFWVLQ&DPERGLD

6RODU±PRQWKO\DYHUDJHGKRUL]RQWDOincident radiation

*URXQGOHYHOGDWDFROOHFWLRQ1$6$$WPRVSKHULF6FLHQFH'DWD&HQWUH

Wind speed (20m and 50m) 1('2DQG0,0(JURXQGOHYHOGDWDFROOHFWLRQ%LRPDVV±GLUHFWFRPEXVWLRQDQGJDVL¿FDWLRQELRGLJHVWLRQDQGELRIXHO±5HVRXUFHDYDLODELOLW\XVHSDWWHUQV

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1HWZRUNDQGHQHUJ\GDWDGrid infrastructure 'HSDUWPHQWRI,QGXVWU\0LQHVDQG(QHUJ\

$VLDQ'HYHORSPHQW%DQNGrid performance statistics (OHFWULFLW\$XWKRULW\RI&DPERGLD($&

(OHFWULFLWH'X&DPERGJH(G&*ULGH[WHQVLRQSODQV 0,0(&DPERGLD3RZHU6HFWRU6WUDWHJ\3DSHU

0LPH5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\$FWLRQ3ODQ³5HJXODWRU\7UHDWPHQWRI([WHQVLRQDQG'LVWULEXWLRQ*ULGLQ&DPERGLD´DSSURYHGE\6HVVLRQ1RRI($&GDWHG2FWREHU

Licence service areas and operation Performance of typical licensees

Electricity Authority of Cambodia (EAC)

Diesel price ($&$QQXDO5HSRUW2FWREHU

Road infrastructure -,&$6WXG\7HDP±3ULPDU\5HVHDUFKMinistry of Transportation


Demographic dataLand use/land cover 0LQLVWU\RI3XEOLF:RUNVDQG7UDQVSRUW9LOODJHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQOHYHO 1,6&HQVXVVillage location and population density 6HLOD&RPPXQH'DWDEDVH

3URYLQFLDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQDQGVRFLReconomic level and population density

CSES (1999)&6(6

Population and residential demand

Mechanics:7KHRYHUDOO0DVWHU(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ3ODQLQFOXGHGSODQVIRUERWKJULGH[WHQVLRQDQGUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ3RWHQWLDODUHDVRIJULGH[WHQVLRQ3$*(ZHUHLGHQWL¿HGZKLOHWKH5(FRPSRQHQWZKLFKFRYHUHGDUHDVJUHDWHUWKDQNPIURPWKHJULGFRQVLGHUHGGHPDQGOHYHOVFXUUHQWDQGSODQQHGLQVWLWXWLRQVDQGSROLFLHVSRSXODWLRQOLFHQFHDUHDVDQGOLFHQVHHV

Grid extension7KHSRWHQWLDOOLPLWVRIJULGH[WHQVLRQZHUHVHWE\WKH0,0((QHUJ\6WUDWHJ\RI&DPERGLDDVNPIURPDSURYLQFLDOFDSLWDO7KHSURSRVHGWUDQVPLVVLRQXSJUDGHZLOOFRQQHFWVRPHRIWKHVHSURYLQFLDOWRZQVDVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH+,QWKH¿UVWSKDVHRIWKHGLVWULEXWLRQXSJUDGHLVRODWHGSURYLQFLDOWRZQVZLWKLQWKH3$*(ZLOOEHFRQQHFWHGE\09OLQHV

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Renewable Resource Assessment5HVRXUFHVZHUHFROODWHGXVLQJH[LVWLQJVWXGLHVDQGUHOHYDQWPLQLVWU\GDWDDVZHOODVJURXQGUHVHDUFKRYHUWZR\HDUVDWYDULRXVVLWHVFDUULHGRXWZLWKWKHKHOSRIORFDOFRPPXQLWLHV3RWHQWLDOUHVRXUFHVLWHVZHUHLGHQWL¿HGDQGVWXGLHGDORQJZLWKH[LVWLQJVLWHVDQGFRVWIDFWRUVDOORZLQJIRUDIXOODVVHVVPHQWRIWKHIHDVLELOLW\DQG\LHOGSRWHQWLDORIHDFKVLWH

0LFURK\GURVRODUELRPDVVJDVL¿FDWLRQDQGGLHVHOSRZHUZHUHIRXQGWREHDSSURSULDWHIRU&DPERGLDEDVHGRQIXHODYDLODELOLW\LQYHVWPHQWFRVWUHFRYHUDELOLW\SRZHUat scale, overall unit generation cost, and the ability of YLOODJHUVWRGHOLYHU20'LUHFWFRPEXVWLRQELRPDVVZDVnot considered viable, as these systems are scaled at JUHDWHUWKDQ0:ZKLOHUXUDO&DPERGLDZRXOGUHTXLUHDQHVWLPDWHGVFDOHRIN:7KHZLQGUHVRXUFHZDVGHWHUPLQHGWREHWRRORZWREHYLDEOH

0LQLK\GURDQGELRPDVVJDVL¿FDWLRQV\VWHPVZHUHIRXQGWREHFRPSHWLWLYHZLWKGLHVHOJHQHUDWLRQDQGVRZHUHprioritised in the master plan for mini-grids and grid FRQQHFWLRQLIDYDLODEOH6RODU39VROXWLRQVZHUHIRXQGWREHHFRQRPLFDOO\GLI¿FXOWWRFRQQHFWWRWKHJULGDQGVRZHUHOLPLWHGWRVWDQGDORQHV\VWHPV

Figure H.2: A project sheet for a micro-hydro assessment by the JICA study team


Off-grid areas$UHDVERWKRXWVLGHDQGLQVLGHRI3$*(WKDWUHPDLQHGXQHOHFWUL¿HGZHUHFRQVLGHUHGIRUWKHRIIJULGSDUWRIWKHPDVWHUSODQ7ZRWLHUVRIRIIJULGHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQZHUHWDUJHWHG

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7KHPDVWHUSODQXWLOLVHGDGHFLVLRQWUHHWRGHWHUPLQH¿UVWWKHOHYHORIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQDQGWKHQZKLFKUHVRXUFHWRXWLOLVH7KHTXHVWLRQVZHUH• 'RHVWKHOHYHORIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQH[FOXGLQJEDWWHU\H[FHHGSHUFHQW"• 'RHVWKHOHYHORI79GLIIXVLRQH[FHHGSHUFHQW"• +DVWKHYLOODJHDSSOLHGIRUDPLQLJULGRUFRPPXQLW\V\VWHP"

,IWKHDQVZHUWRDQ\RIWKHVHTXHVWLRQVZDV\HVWKHQOHYHOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQYLDPLQLJULGZDVUHFRPPHQGHG7KHDSSURSULDWHJHQHUDWLRQZDVWKHQDVVHVVHGEXLOGLQJRQWKHVWXGLHVFRQGXFWHGZLWKK\GURSULRULWL]HGRYHUELRPDVVZKLFKZDVSULRULWLVHGRYHUGLHVHO

7KHIXOOFRQGLWLRQVIRUGLHVHOJHQHUDWLRQZHUH• 1RPLFURK\GURSRWHQWLDODYDLODEOH• 1RELRPDVVSRWHQWLDODYDLODEOH• 7KHUHZDVYLOODJHGHPDQGIRUPLQLJULGVRQWKHLQDQRUGHURI:N:KSHUPRQWKSHUKRXVHKROGH[LVWV• 9LOODJHUVKDYHDELOLW\WRSD\LQDQRUGHURISHUPRQWK• 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQRIGLHVHORLOWRWKHYLOODJHZDVSRVVLEOHYLDZLWKJRRGURDGDFFHVVSDUWLFXODUO\LQWKHUDLQ\VHDVRQ• *ULGH[WHQVLRQZDVQRWH[SHFWHGLQWKHIRUHVHHDEOHIXWXUH

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Commentary: 7KHPHWKRGRORJ\LQYROYHGH[WHQVLYHVWXG\WRDVVHVVLQGHWDLODOOIDFWRUVUHODWHGWRWKHHQHUJ\VHFWRUDQGUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQLQ&DPERGLDLQFOXGLQJDQDO\VLVRI*,6V\VWHPVLQSODFH,WLQFOXGHGRQWKHJURXQGYLVLWVDQGDVVHVVPHQWVRIH[LVWLQJDQGSRWHQWLDOUHVRXUFHVLWHVGDWDFROOHFWLRQDQGGHPDQGSUR¿OHV7KHPDVWHUSODQFRYHUHGDOODVSHFWVRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQLQFOXGLQJWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIUHJXODWRU\ERGLHVDQGWDULIIV

2YHUDOOWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZRXOGQRWEHSUDFWLFDORUÀH[LEOHHQRXJKIRUXVHDFURVV$IULFDEXWLWVHUYHVDVDQH[FHOOHQWbest practice reference methodology, due to its full consideration of all of the physical and non-physical factors DIIHFWLQJUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQDQGLWVDQGLQGHSWKDVVHVVPHQWRIXVHUGHPDQGDQG$73

Highlights:• 'DWDFROOHFWLRQRIORDGSUR¿OH• Plan includes regulatory bodies and tariffs• 5(UHVRXUFHVFROODWHGXVLQJH[LVWLQJVWXGLHVDQGUHOHYDQWPLQLVWU\GDWD• Clear conditions for use of diesel generator• :LQGUHVRXUFHFRQVLGHUHGWREHWRRORZWREHYLDEOH

Links:-,&$7KH0DVWHU3ODQ6WXG\RQ5XUDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQE\5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\LQWKH.LQJGRPRI&DPERGLD


METHODOLOGY I: &/,0$7(6&23( */2%$/ &/($1 (1(5*< &28175< &203(7,7,9(1(66 ,1'(;08/7,/$7(5$/ ,19(670(17 )81' 8. '(3$570(17 )25 ,17(51$7,21$/ '(9(/230(17 32:(5$)5,&$$1'%/220%(5*1(:(1(5*<),1$1&(

Methodology Type:Weighted ranking

Coverage:Global

Spatial Mapping:1R

Summary:7KH&OLPDWH6FRSH&OHDQ(QHUJ\&RXQWU\&RPSHWLWLYHQHVV,QGH[PHDVXUHVWKHUHQHZDEOHUHODWHGHQHUJ\LQYHVWPHQWSROLF\GHYHORSPHQWDQGJHQHUDWLRQLQVWDOPHQWZLQGVRODUJHRWKHUPDOELRPDVVVPDOOK\GURDQGELRIXHOWHFKQRORJLHVRIFRXQWULHVJOREDOO\,WDOVRLQGLFDWHVWKHVWUHQJWKRIWKHHQDEOLQJHQYLURQPHQWIRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIFOHDQHQHUJ\DQGWHFKQRORJLHVLQWKHVHFRXQWULHV7KHPHWKRGRORJ\FRQVLGHUHGRIWKHFRXQWULHVXWLOLVLQJDQDXJPHQWHGRIIJULGPHWKRGRORJ\ZKLFKDVVHVVHGWKHLUFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVDJDLQVWWKDWRIRWKHUFRXQWULHVIRUVSHFL¿FDOO\RIIJULGUHQHZDEOHWHFKQRORJLHV

7KHDVVHVVPHQWVZHUHFRXQWU\OHYHOPHDQLQJWKHUHZDVQRVXSSRUWIRUPRUHJUDQXODUUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQGHFLVLRQSURFHVVHV+RZHYHUWKH\SURYLGHGDVWURQJLQLWLDOLQGLFDWLRQWRVWDNHKROGHUVDERXWRQWKHUHODWLYHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRURQRURIIJULGUHQHZDEOHEDVHGGHYHORSPHQWEHWZHHQFRXQWULHV


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%1()VHFRQGDU\UHVHDUFK±JRYHUQPHQWSXEOLFDWLRQVZHEVLWHVRSHUDWRUVother stakeholders

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%1()SULPDU\UHVHDUFK

Electricity prices (spot, residential, commercial and industrial)

%1()SULPDU\UHVHDUFK

Kerosene and diesel prices %1()UHVHDUFK

Demographic data(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQOHYHO %1()UHVHDUFK(OHFWULFLW\GHPDQGJURZWK %1()UHVHDUFKPopulation using clean cook stoves $OOLDQFHIRU&OHDQ&RRN6WRYHVPXQH'DWDEDVH

Policy/political dataPolicies %1()RQOLQHGDWDEDVH

Political risk :RUOG%DQN¶V:RUOGZLGH*RYHUQDQFH,QGLFDWRUV:*,LQGH[

Distributed energy regulation IUDPHZRUN

%1()VWDNHKROGHUFRQVXOWDWLRQ

Energy access policies %1()VWDNHKROGHUFRQVXOWDWLRQ

Trade barriers :RUOG7UDGH2UJDQLVDWLRQ±DYHUDJHLPSRUWGXWLHVOHYLHGRQFOHDQHQHUJ\products


Financial/economic

Clean energy investment and LQYHVWPHQWJURZWKUDWH

%1()SURSULHWDU\LQGXVWU\LQWHOOLJHQFHGDWDEDVH

Loans, grants and grant program commitments

%1()SURSULHWDU\LQGXVWU\LQWHOOLJHQFHGDWDEDVH

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Financial institutions %1()SULPDU\UHVHDUFKSector value chains (biofuels, ELRPDVVDQGZDVWHJHRWKHUPDOVPDOOK\GURVRODUZLQG

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Clean Development Mechanism (historic activity, average processing WLPHIRUSURMHFWUHJLVWUDWLRQHQHUJ\use per kg of oil equivalent)

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Mechanics:7KHDVVHVVPHQWVUDQNHGWKHFRXQWULHVDJDLQVWDJJUHJDWHGVFRUHV(QDEOLQJ)UDPHZRUNSHUFHQW)LQDQFLQJDQG,QYHVWPHQWSHUFHQW9DOXH&KDLQVSHUFHQW*+*0DQDJHPHQWSHUFHQW7KHVH¿QDOVFRUHVZHUHEDVHGUHVSHFWLYHO\RQDQGLQGLFDWRUVLQFOXGLQJLQVWDOOHGFOHDQHQHUJ\FDSDFLW\ORFDOLQYHVWPHQWQXPEHURIYDOXHFKDLQVLQWKHFOHDQHQHUJ\VHFWRUDQGWKHSUHVHQFHRI*+*JOREDOUHSRUWLQJLQLWLDWLYHV

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7KHLQGLFDWRUVZHUHVFRUHGRXWRIXVXDOO\OHYHOLVHGDQGGHSHQGHQWRQPHWULFW\SH)RUUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQWKHORZHVWHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQUDWHKLJKHVWQRQHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQUDWHZDVVHWDVWKHEHQFKPDUNDQGDOOFRXQWULHVJLYHQDVFRUHRXWRIUHODWLYHWRWKLVEHQFKPDUN7KHUHIRUHDFRXQWU\ZLWKWZLFHDVKLJKDQHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQUDWHZRXOGJHWDVFRUHRI


Figure I.1: African countries ranked by distributed energy and energy access score

2IIJULGVSHFL¿FLQGLFDWRUV'LVWULEXWHGHQHUJ\UHJXODWRU\IUDPHZRUNV

+RZZHOOGRHVDFRXQWU\¶VORFDOPDUNHWVWUXFWXUHIDFLOLWDWHRIIJULGRUVPDOOVFDOHGHYHORSPHQWRISURMHFWV"

Energy access policies:

:KDWORFDOSROLFLHVH[LVWVSHFL¿FDOO\WRVSXURIIJULGDFWLYLW\"

Average local kerosene and diesel prices:

+RZKLJKDUHWKHVHSULFHVDQGKRZDWWUDFWLYHGRWKH\PDNHSRWHQWLDODOWHUQDWLYHFOHDQHUVRXUFHVRIJHQHUDWLRQ"

Population using solid fuels for cooking:

+RZPDQ\FLWL]HQVZRXOGSRWHQWLDOO\YDOXHDOWHUQDWLYHIXHOVRXUFHVWRFRRN"

Distributed clean energy value chains:

:KDWORFDOPLQLK\GURDQGPLQLZLQGHTXLSPHQWPDNHUVPLQLSKRWRYROWDLFV\VWHPSURYLGHUVDQGRWKHUVLPLODUW\SHVRISOD\HUVH[LVWLQWKHFRXQWU\"

Distributed clean energy service providers:

:KDWORFDOUHWDLOHUVSD\DV\RXJRIDFLOLWDWRUVLQVXUDQFHSURYLGHUVDQGRWKHUVVSHFLDOL]LQJLQRIIJULGDQGVPDOOscale clean energy services are in the country?


Figure I.2: Example of ClimateScope country summary sheet - Mozambique

Commentary:7KHLQGH[SUHVHQWHGDJOREDOUDQNLQJEDVHGRQLQGLFDWRUVDQGVXELQGLFDWRUVDORQJZLWKTXDOLWDWLYHGLVFXVVLRQVRIWKHFRXQWULHV¶SHUIRUPDQFHDJDLQVWVHOHFWHGIDFWRUV7KHPHWKRGRORJ\JDYHVHSDUDWHFRQVLGHUDWLRQWRFRXQWULHVZLWKRQDQGRIIJULGIRFXVDQGSURYLGHGDJRRGLQGLFDWLRQRIWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUUHQHZDEOHEDVHGGHYHORSPHQWDWDFRXQWU\OHYHO+RZHYHUWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\GLGQRWSURYLGHVXSSRUWIRULQFRXQWU\UXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQPLQLJULGSODQQLQJRUGHYHORSPHQW

$GGLWLRQDOO\WKHKXJHVFDOHRIVWXG\ZLWKUHOLDQFHRQDODUJHDPRXQWRISULPDU\DQGVHFRQGDU\UHVHDUFKPHDQVWKLVW\SHRIPHWKRGRORJ\ZRXOGQRWUHSOLFDEOHDVDVWDNHKROGHUGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWWRROXVLQJFRXQWU\VSHFL¿FPHWULFV7KHUHIRUHLWLVRQO\XVHIXOIRUSULYDWHVHFWRULQYHVWRUVDVD¿UVWFRXQWU\UHIHUHQFH

Highlights:

• 3URYLGHV6WDWHRIWKHDUWDVVHVVPHQWRIHOHFWULFLW\DFFHVVLQHDFKFRXQWU\EXWQRVXSSRUWIRUUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQplanning or development

Link:ClimateScope2015KWWSJOREDOFOLPDWHVFRSHRUJHQGRZQORDG


METHODOLOGY J: */2%$/&28175<5$1.,1*%$6('2168,7$%,/,7<)25585$/(/(&75,),&$7,215(,1(5/(02,1(,167,787**0%+$11.$75,1*(5/$&+(7$/

Methodology Type:Weighted ranking

Coverage:Global

Spatial Mapping:1R

Summary:7KLVVLPSOHZRUOGZLGHFRXQWU\UDQNLQJJLYHVDQLQGLFDWLRQRIWKHFRXQWULHV¶DSSOLFDELOLW\IRUUHQHZDEOHPLQLJULGVWRDLGWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIVXVWDLQDEOHEXVLQHVVPRGHOVLQWKHVHFRXQWULHV7KHDVVHVVPHQWZDVDWDFRXQWU\OHYHOVRQRGHFLVLRQVXSSRUWZDVSURYLGHGWRLGHQWLI\WDUJHWDUHDVIRUUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRUWRDVVHVVWKHUHODWLYHFRPSHWLWLYHQHVVRIGLIIHUHQWHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQV



1DWLRQDOGLHVHOSULFHV *,=,QWHUQDWLRQDO)XHO3ULFHVWK(GLWLRQ

Demographic dataRural population :RUOG%DQN5XUDO3RSXODWLRQ5XUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQUDWH 8QLWHG1DWLRQVDQG:RUOG+HDOWK2UJDQLVDWLRQ7KH(QHUJ\$FFHVV

Situation in Developing Countries 81'3+XPDQ'HYHORSPHQW5HSRUW,($:RUOG(QHUJ\2XWORRN

Policy/political dataPolitical stability :RUOG%DQN:RUOGZLGH*RYHUQDQFH,QGLFDWRUV&RUUXSWLRQ3HUFHSWLRQ,QGH[ 7UDQVSDUHQF\,QWHUQDWLRQDO

Financial/economic

,QÀDWLRQ :RUOG%DQN,QÀDWLRQFRQVXPHUSULFHV(DVHRI'RLQJ%XVLQHVV,QGH[ :RUOG%DQNDQG,QWHUQDWLRQDO)LQDQFH&RUSRUDWLRQ7UDYHOZDUQLQJV *HUPDQ)HGHUDO)RUHLJQ2I¿FH

Mechanics:

([FOXVLRQFULWHULD±DFRXQWU\LVQRWVXLWDEOHIRUUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQLI

• LWKDVDSHUFHQWHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQUDWHRUJUHDWHU• LWKDVPRUHWKDQHOHFWUL¿HGUXUDOFLWL]HQV• LVLQWKHORZHVWSHUFHQWRIWKH:RUOGZLGH*RYHUQDQFH,QGLFDWRUVSROLWLFDOVWDELOLW\LQGH[• LWLVWKHVXEMHFWRIDWUDYHOZDUQLQJIURPWKH*HUPDQ0LQLVWU\RI)RUHLJQ$IIDLUV• LWKDVGLHVHOSXPSSULFHVORZHUWKDQ86SHUOLWUH

$IWHUWKHVHH[FOXVLRQVFRXQWULHVUHPDLQWKDWDUHVXLWDEOHIRUUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSUHGRPLQDQWO\LQ$IULFD$VLDDQG6RXWK$PHULFD


Weighting criteria:• Market potential 40%

— (OHFWUL¿FDWLRQUDWH — 8QHOHFWUL¿HGUXUDOSRSXODWLRQ — 3XPSGLHVHOSULFH

Figure J.1: Top 20 from 89 non-excluded countries, based on market potential and political and financial enabling environment

3ROLWLFDODQG¿QDQFLDOHQYLURQPHQW±SHUFHQW

• Political stability 9% — &RUUXSWLRQ3HUFHSWLRQV,QGH[ — ,QÀDWLRQ — (DVHRI'RLQJ%XVLQHVV,QGH[

Commentary:6LPSOHPHWKRGRORJ\XVLQJUHPRWHGDWDVHWVZKLFKDOORZVIRUTXLFNLGHQWL¿FDWLRQRIFRXQWULHVZLWKWKHULJKWHQDEOLQJHQYLURQPHQWIRUJUHHQPLQLJULGV+RZHYHUDQLPSURYHPHQWZRXOGEHWRLQFOXGHIDFWRUVVXFKDVWKHH[LVWHQFHRIRIIJULGDFWLYLWLHVUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQDJHQFLHVDQGUHJXODWRUVDVZHOODVJDXJLQJWKHSULRULWLVDWLRQRIUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQLQQDWLRQDODQGUHJLRQDOJRYHUQPHQWV¶SODQV

Highlights:6LPSOHPHWKRGRORJ\/RRNVRQO\DWJHQHUDOFULWHULDGLHVHOFRVWUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQUDWHSROLF\FRUUXSWLRQDQGLQÀDWLRQWRFRQVLGHU*0*as a viable solution for the country

Link:$.*HUODFKHWDO&RPSUHKHQVLYH&RXQWU\5DQNLQJIRU5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\%DVHG0LQL*ULGV3URYLGLQJ5XUDO2II*ULG(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ


METHODOLOGY K: *,6%$6(' '(0$1'/(' 585$/ (/(&75,&,7< 3/$11,1* 0(7+2'2/2*< )258*$1'$,732:(5(.$,-8.$

Methodology Type: Demand-led

Coverage:8JDQGD

GIS/Spatial Mapping:<HV

Summary:7KHPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVXVHGWRLGHQWLI\SDWWHUQVRIGHPDQGDQGSULRULW\DUHDVIRULQYHVWPHQWUDWKHUWKDQFUHDWHDFRPSUHKHQVLYHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQ7KHDSSURDFKZDVLQUHVSRQVHWRWKHH[WUHPHO\VORZUDWHRIUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQLQ8JDQGDDQGWKHUHIRUHWKHQHHGWRLQFUHDVHLQYHVWRUV¶DZDUHQHVVRIGHPDQGOHGRSSRUWXQLWLHVOHDGLQJWRWKHFUHDWLRQRIVXSSO\VLGHV\VWHPGHVLJQVEDVHGRQUHVRXUFHDYDLODELOLW\

Factors Considered: Sources:


Grid and road infrastructure 8JDQGD%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFV$IULFRQ(QJLQHHULQJ,QWHUQDWLRQDO/WG5XUDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ&ULWHULD:RUNVKRSWK-DQXDU\

Demographic data3RSXODWLRQVL]HDQGGHPDQGFHQWUHV(villages, local government, schools)

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'HPDQGFHQWUHV±KHDOWKFHQWUHV 8JDQGD%XUHDXRI6WDWLVWLFV0DNHUH8QLYHUVLW\5XUDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ&ULWHULDWorkshop (24th January 2005) ,QGLFDWLYH5XUDO(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ0DVWHU3ODQ3URMHFW,5(03

Mechanics:

7KHLQLWLDOGHPDQGFHQWUHVWDUJHWHGE\WKHPHWKRGRORJ\ZHUHKHDOWKFHQWUHVVFKRROVKRXVHKROGVDQGORFDOJRYHUQPHQWKHDGTXDUWHUV$ZHLJKWHGEHQH¿WSRLQWVVFRUHZDVDZDUGHGIRUHDFKGHPDQGVHFWRULQFOXGLQJKRXVHKROGVDQGWKHVXEFRXQWLHVZHUHJLYHQDFXPXODWLYHVFRUHEDVHGRQWKHVHFWRUVZLWKLQWKHLUERXQGDULHV

%HQH¿WSRLQWVZHUHDZDUGHGEDVHGRQW\SHDQGVL]HRIGHPDQGIRUH[DPSOHDVHFRQGDU\VFKRROUHFHLYHGSRLQWVSOXVSRLQWSHUSXSLO7KHVHZHLJKWLQJVZHUHLQVSLUHGE\VWXGLHVLQ6RXWK$IULFDDQG1DPLELDDQGDJUHHGXSRQLQFRQVXOWDWLRQZLWKVWDNHKROGHUV+RXVHKROGVZHUHFDOFXODWHGRQDVXEFRXQW\OHYHODVVXPLQJSHRSOHSHUKRXVHKROGDQGKHDOWKFHQWUHVZHUHJLYHQDKLJKHUZHLJKWLQJWKDQVFKRROVZLWKIXUWKHUZHLJKWLQJDERYHKRXVHKROGV

7KHVXEFRXQW\WRWDOEHQH¿WSRLQWVZHUHWKHQSUHVHQWHGDVWKHSDUDPHWHUIRUSULRULWLVDWLRQRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQLQWKDWFRXQW\WRDLGWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWDUJHWHGVXSSO\VLGHVROXWLRQV


Figure K.1: Kabarole district benefit point allocation by sub-county. Red indicates greater benefits and higher priority; green indicates lower benefits

Commentary:7KHPHWKRGRORJ\SURYLGHGVROLGMXVWL¿FDWLRQIRUSULRULWLVLQJDPLQLPLVHGHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQDQGIRUDVVHVVLQJWKHUHODWLYHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQQHHGVRIVXEFRXQWLHV7KHUHZDVQRWHFKQLFDORUFRVWDVVHVVPHQWRIWKHHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQRSWLRQVDQGQRFRQVLGHUDWLRQRIWDULIIVRULQYHVWPHQWFRVWV+RZHYHULQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKDVXSSO\VLGHWRROWKLVPHWKRGRORJ\FRXOGKHOSEXGJHWFRQVWUDLQHGGHYHORSHUVRUVWDNHKROGHUVWRSULRULWLVHSURMHFWV

Highlights:• Methodology focused on demand assessment 1RWHFKQLFDORUFRVWDVVHVVPHQWFRQVLGHUHG

Link:(.DLMXND*,6DQG5XUDO(OHFWULFLW\3ODQQLQJLQ8JDQGD


METHODOLOGY L: *,6%$6('(/(&75,),&$7,213/$11,1*'(&,6,2168332570(7+2'2/2*<)256287+$)5,&$585$/$5($32:(562/87,216(7$/',%$1.6(7$/


Coverage:6RXWK$IULFD1RUWKHUQ7UDQVNHLUHJLRQH[DPSOH

Spatial Mapping:<HV

Summary:7KLVPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVFUHDWHGWRKHOSWKHSODQQLQJRIUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQLQ6RXWK$IULFDZKHUHWKHUHKDVEHHQDKXJHGLIIHUHQFHLQWKHOHYHORIGHYHORSPHQWEHWZHHQVHWWOHPHQWVWKDWKDYHDQGKDYHQRWEHHQHOHFWUL¿HG)RUJULGFRQQHFWHGVHWWOHPHQWVKHDY\FURVVVXEVLGLHVRIXSWR5SHUKRXVHKROGZLWKQRPLQLPXPPRQWKO\FKDUJHVDQGFRQQHFWLRQIHHVRIRQO\5KDYHPHDQWDVLJQL¿FDQWERRVWLQSURGXFWLYLW\DQGKXPDQGHYHORSPHQWLQGLFDWRUVZKLOHXQHOHFWUL¿HGVHWWOHPHQWVKDYHEHHQOHIWEHKLQG7KLVKDVFUHDWHGDQXUJHQWQHHGIRUHIIHFWLYHGHFLVLRQPDNLQJLQHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQSODQQLQJDQGSDUWLFXODUO\IRURIIJULGSODQQLQJIRUPRUHUHPRWHFRPPXQLWLHVWKDWKDYHQRWEHHQDIRFXVRIWKH6RXWK$IULFDQQDWLRQDOXWLOLW\(VNRP


5HQHZDEOHGDWD

5HQHZDEOHUHVRXUFHDQGFRVWestimates

+(/3*,6GDWDEDVHV\VWHP±QRWUHIHUHQFHG

1HWZRUNDQGHQHUJ\GDWDGrid infrastructure and cost estimates

+(/3*,6GDWDEDVHV\VWHP±QRWUHIHUHQFHG

Demographic dataIncome At time of publication, data from the South African Central Statistical Services

ZHUHXQDYDLODEOHVRD¿[HGYDOXHIRU$73ZDVXVHG+RXVHKROGGHQVLW\ %DQNV',(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQPRGHOOLQJIRU6RXWK$IULFDGLVFXVVLRQRIWKH

PHWKRGRORJ\HPSOR\HGSchoolsClinicsPolice stations

Mechanics:

7KHPRGHOZDVDLPHGDWPD[LPLVLQJWKHGHYHORSPHQWLPSDFWRIHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQIRUHDFKXQHOHFWUL¿HGVHWWOHPHQWDQGSULRULWLVLQJWKHLUHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ7KLVDSSURDFKZDVWDNHQUDWKHUWKDQDGLUHFWFRPSDULVRQRIRQDQGRIIJULGVROXWLRQVGXHWRDQH[SHFWHGODFNRIUREXVWQHVVRIVXFKDUHVXOW

7KHPRGHOSULRULWLVHGVHWWOHPHQWVZLWKKLJKGHYHORSPHQWLPSDFWVXFKDVWKRVHZLWKVFKRROVKRVSLWDOVDQGRUDGPLQLVWUDWLYHEXLOGLQJVDQGZLWKDFRUUHVSRQGLQJO\KLJKHUGHPDQG6RPHVHWWOHPHQWVZHUHIRXQGWRKDYHVXI¿FLHQWGHPDQGWREHOLNHO\FDQGLGDWHVIRUJULGFRQQHFWLRQDQGDQHWZRUNDOJRULWKPZDVXVHGWRPLQLPLVHWKHWRWDOOLQHRIJULGH[WHQVLRQUHTXLUHG,IJULGH[WHQVLRQZDVIRXQGWREHXQHFRQRPLFWKHQWKHYLDELOLW\RIPLQLJULGRUVWDQGDORQHV\VWHPVZDVDVVHVVHG


Algorithm:

:HLJKWHGGHYHORSPHQWEHQH¿WDQDO\VLV• :HLJKWHGGHYHORSPHQWEHQH¿WVSRLQWVZHUHDZDUGHGWRHDFKVHWWOHPHQWIRUVHUYLFHIDFLOLWLHVVXFKDVKRVSLWDOV

WRJHWD³WRWDOEHQH¿WLQGH[´• )URPWKHDYDLODEOHEXGJHWDQGQXPEHURIVHWWOHPHQWVWKHPD[LPXPJULGH[SHQGLWXUHSHUVHWWOHPHQWRULWV

DOORZDQFHZDVGHWHUPLQHGZHLJKWHGE\WKHEHQH¿WSRLQWVIRUWKDWVHWWOHPHQW

Commentary:7KHPHWKRGRORJ\ZDVEDVHGRQWKHDVVXPSWLRQWKDWDGLUHFWFRVWFRPSDULVRQRIJULGDQGRIIJULGVROXWLRQVZRXOGQRWSURYLGHDUREXVWVROXWLRQZLWKRXWDKLJKOHYHORIDQDO\VLVGXHWRWKHGLIIHUHQWOHYHOVRIVHUYLFHRIIHUHGE\WKHWZRW\SHVRIVROXWLRQVDQGDKLJKGHSHQGHQFHRQLQSXWSDUDPHWHUV7KHUHIRUHWKHIRFXVZDVJULGH[WHQVLRQHVSHFLDOO\DVWKHSULRULW\ZDVWRHOHFWULI\VHWWOHPHQWVZLWKDKLJKOHYHORIVHUYLFHVDQGFRUUHVSRQGLQJHQHUJ\GHPDQGV

The prioritisation of settlements required detailed, ground-level demographic, income, planning and infrastructure GDWDLQRUGHUWRDOORFDWHDEHQH¿WVFRUHWRHDFKVHWWOHPHQW7KHGDWDXWLOLVHGLQWKHSDSHUZHUHSRRUO\UHIHUHQFHGDQGVRFRXOGQRWEHDVVHVVHGEXWWKHSDSHUGLGSURYLGHDFOHDUDSSURDFKWRUXUDOHOHFWUL¿FDWLRQWKDWZDVZHOOVXLWHGWRKHOSLQJVWDNHKROGHUVLGHQWLI\DSSURSULDWHVROXWLRQVZLWKLQEXGJHWDU\UHVWUDLQWV7KHPHWKRGRORJ\FRXOGEHLPSURYHGE\JLYLQJJUHDWHUFRQVLGHUDWLRQWRGLIIHUHQWWHFKQRORJ\RSWLRQVIRUGHFHQWUDOLVHGJHQHUDWLRQ

&ODULW\RQVRXUFHVDQGRQWKHWHFKQRORJ\RSWLRQVDQGSDUDPHWHUVFRQVLGHUHGZDVVHULRXVO\QHHGHG

Link:',%DQNV)0RFNH(&-RQFN(/DEXVFKDJQH5(EHUKDUG(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQ3ODQQLQJ'HFLVLRQ6XSSRUW7RROKWWSZZZDFDGHPLDHGX(OHFWUL¿FDWLRQBSODQQLQJBGHFLVLRQBVXSSRUWBWRRO

Grid-prioritised planning7KH.UXVNDODOJRULWKPZDVXWLOLVHGWRPLQLPLVHWKHWRWDOline length required to connect all settlements set for grid H[WHQVLRQ

• For each settlement, if the cost of a local grid that ZRXOG EH UHTXLUHG WRPHHW LWV GHPDQG ZDV JUHDWHUWKDQ LWV DOORZDQFH WKHQ WKH VHWWOHPHQW ZRXOG EH Dcandidate for stand-alone solar home systems

• ,IWKHUHPDLQLQJH[WHQVLRQDOORZDQFHDIWHUFRQVWUXFWLRQRIWKHUHTXLUHGORFDOJULGUHWLFXODWLRQZHUHHQRXJKWRDOORZFRQQHFWLRQWRWKHQHWZRUNWKHQWKHVHWWOHPHQWZDVDFDQGLGDWHIRUJULGFRQQHFWLRQ,IQRWWKHQLWZDVa mini-grid candidate

(DFKWLPHWKHJULGZDVH[WHQGHGRWKHUVHWWOHPHQWVZHUHFKHFNHGWRVHHZKHWKHUWKH\QRZKDGHQRXJKDOORZDQFHWRMRLQWKHJULG

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ZDV GHWHUPLQHG ZKHWKHU D VWDQGDORQH RU PLQLJULGV\VWHPZRXOGEHPRUHDSSURSULDWH

• 7KH ¿QDO FRVWV IRU WKH HOHFWUL¿FDWLRQ VROXWLRQ ZHUHdetermined

Figure L.1: Electrification solution possible with maximum cost per point of R3500. Points were awarded based on electrification benefit, such as a hospital receiving 15 points.

Green Mini-GridsMarket Development ProgrammeDocument Series©2017 African Development Bank Group

Contacts:The SE4ALL Africa Hub Secretariathosted by the AfDB

African Development BankStatutory HeadquartersImmeuble du Centre de CommerceInternational d’Abidjan-CCIAAvenue Jean-Paul II01BP1387Abidjan 01, Côte d’Ivoire

SEforALL Africa HubCoordinatorDr. Daniel-Alexander [email protected]@afdb.org

gmg market assessment methodology - green mini grids · 4 gmg mdp document series #3 1rq *,6 edvhg...

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