globo.com weekly talks - sprint risk forecasting
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Palestra sobre Agile Risk Management e Sprint risk forecasting no Globo.com Weekly TalksTRANSCRIPT
globo.comSprint risk forecasting
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e se fosse possível prever o resultado do seu sprint...?
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Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss
(an undesirable outcome). [...] Potential losses themselves may also be called "risks". Almost any
human endeavor carries some risk.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk
got risk?6Thursday, November 1, 12
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“Risk Management is part of Prince2, part of PMBOK, and part of the CMMI, but you don't o!en see it addressed
explicitly in books on agile methods. I think that's strange.”
Jurgen Appelo8Thursday, November 1, 12
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Risk MatrixRisk RegisterRisk Rating
Risk Mitigation
Agile Risk MatrixAgile Risk RegisterAgile Risk Rating
Agile Risk Mitigation
10Thursday, November 1, 12
Risk MatrixRisk RegisterRisk Rating
Risk Mitigation
Agile Risk MatrixAgile Risk RegisterAgile Risk Rating
Agile Risk Mitigation
10Thursday, November 1, 12
BULLSHIT!BULLSHIT!
BULLSHIT!11Thursday, November 1, 12
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... agile so!ware development is a risk management strategy, because all principles of risk management are
nicely covered when you've implemented an agile process.
Boris Gloger14Thursday, November 1, 12
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Project risk management‣ Risk management do planejamento do projeto (Product Backlog)
‣ Forecast que monitora quantos sprints temos em backlog
‣ Numero ótimo: maior que 2,5 menor que 4
‣ Inventado pelo Danilo Bardusco
Backlog Total
Velocidade média * 3Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready
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Backlog ready - exemplo‣ Velocity:
‣ 25 story points
‣ Product backlog no início do sprint:
‣ 120 story points
‣ Backlog ready:
‣ 120 / (25 * 3) = 160%
‣ Signi!ca que no início deste sprint, havia backlog para 4.8 sprints
Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready18Thursday, November 1, 12
Backlog ready - na prática
Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
200%
1 2 3 4 5 6
40%
71%88%
118%
170%187%
Backlog ready
Backlog ready Minimo desejável
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e se fosse possível prever o resultado do seu sprint...?
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Sprint risk forecasting
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Sprint risk forecasting
Complexidade média Taxa de sucesso
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Sprint risk forecasting‣ Risk management do planejamento do sprint (Sprint Backlog)
‣ Métrica de forecast do sprint
‣ Numero ótimo: depende do time
‣ Inventado por mim
Insight - há uma relação inversa entre o tamanho médio das histórias planejadas no sprint backlog e a taxa de entrega do sprint!
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/22Thursday, November 1, 12
Sprint risk forecasting‣ Complexidade média:
‣ Média aritmética do sprint backlog (início do sprint)
‣ Complexidade planejada: 26 pontos, 7 histórias
‣ Complexidade média: 26/7 = 3.25
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/23Thursday, November 1, 12
Sprint risk forecasting‣ Taxa de sucesso
‣ % de pontos entregues de fato, em relação ao planejado
‣ Complexidade planejada: 26 pontos
‣ Complexidade entregue: 27 pontos (time entregou um ponto a mais do que o planejado)
‣ Taxa de sucesso: (26/27)*100 = 104%
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/24Thursday, November 1, 12
Tamanho médio - na prática
Ref: http://macaubas.com/agile/backlog-ready
0
1
2
4
5
6
1 2 3 4 50%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
104% 107% 100%
69% 77%
3.3 3.2
4.0
5.6
4.9
Tamanho média das histórias
Complexidade Media Taxa de sucesso
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E daí?
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Sprint risk forecasting‣ É possível prever o resultado do sprint (taxa de sucesso)
baseado em dados históricos!
‣ Regressão linear simples (least square estimates),
‣ Entrada = complexidade média das histórias do sprint atual.
‣ Entrada = histórico de compl. média & taxa de sucesso
‣ Saída = forecast da taxa de sucesso do sprint que está começando
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/27Thursday, November 1, 12
Sprint risk forecasting
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/
Sprints 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18Compl. planejada
Compl. entregue
Qtd planejado
Qtd entregueComplexidade MediaTaxa de sucesso
20 32 16 17 37 30 36 40 47 50 34 51 19 21 45 24 40 41
50 43 9 32 29 35 31 40 53 62 46 46 20 24 45 34 42 47
4 9 6 5 12 8 9 8 14 17 10 16 9 10 20 10 14 14
20 17 6 13 13 13 8 9 17 22 14 17 10 13 21 15 15 18
1.00 1.88 2.67 1.31 2.85 2.31 4.50 4.44 2.76 2.27 2.43 3.00 1.90 1.62 2.14 1.60 2.67 2.28
250% 134% 56% 188% 78% 117% 86% 100% 113% 124% 135% 90% 105% 114% 100% 142% 105% 115%
19o Sprint:Complexidade planejada: 48Quantidade de histórias: 16Complexidade média: 3
Taxa de sucesso prevista:102%
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Sprint risk forecasting in action
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/
Taxa de sucesso prevista Nível de risco
maior ou igual a 95% Baixo
entre 95% e 80% Médio
entre 80% e 70% Alto
menor que 70% Fujam para as colinas!
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Sprint risk forecasting‣ Massa de dados:
‣ Coleta em 2 times por 18 sprints (G1 e Ego)
‣ Coleta em 3 times por 9 sprints, e contando (Webmedia)
‣ Slideshare: http://slidesha.re/Q7KjVy
Ref: TBD - http://macaubas.com/32Thursday, November 1, 12
globo.com
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