Global Weather Hazards Summary

Africa Weather Hazards

FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. The FEWS NET weather hazards process and products include participation by FEWS NET field and home offices, NOAA-CPC, USGS, USDA, NASA, and a number of other national and regional organizations in the countries concerned. Questions or comments about this product may be directed to Wassila.Thiaw@noaa.gov, fewsnetinfo@fews.net, or 1-301-683-3424.

Source: FEWS NET/NOAA

FloodingAbnormal DrynessDroughtSevere DroughtTropical CyclonePotential Locust OutbreakHeavy SnowAbnormal ColdAbnormal HeatSeasonally Dry

October 09 - 15, 2020

Flooding continues in parts of East Africa, Benin, and eastern DRC

1. Heavy rainfall is forecast over northern Benin which could trigger additional flooding.

2. Desert locust remain present across coastal areas of Yemen and parts of East Africa. Recent breeding this month is likely to contribute to an increase in locust bands.

3. Heavy rainfall persists across southern, Sudan, northern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia.

4. Heavy rain triggered flooding across eastern DRC. Above average rainfall is forecast next week which could trigger additional flooding.

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Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

Weather Hazards Summary

Africa Overview

West Africa experiences a positive rainy seasonThe rainy season performance across West Africa has been favorable (Figure 1). Over the last 7-days, western parts of the region have recorded light to moderate rainfall. In Benin, heavy rainfall has triggered flash floods (Figure 2). Over the past 30-days, West Africa has experienced a seasonal rainfall performance despite local deficits in several Gulf of Guinea countries.

Next week, above-average rainfall is forecast for northern Senegal, northern Mali, Guinea, Sierra Leon, Liberia, and the Gulf of Guinea countries. Additional heavy rainfall is forecast for southern Nigeria and northern Cameroon. The Horn of Africa experiences a favorable June-September rainy season

East Africa receives moderate to heavy rainfallLast week southern parts of Sudan, South Sudan, and western Ethiopia received moderate to heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, Uganda and northwestern parts of Tanzania recorded light rainfall (Figure 1). Over the past 90-days, rainfall performance has been significantly above normal across Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern parts of the DRC, and Central Africa (Figure 2). A high risk of river flooding exists across southern Chad, southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, and northeastern Uganda.

Next week, below-average rainfall is forecast for northeastern Ethiopia, northern Somalia, and northern South Sudan. Meanwhile, western and southern Ethiopia, Uganda, western Kenya, southern South Sudan, and northeastern DRC will likely receive more seasonal rainfall. There is also a high risk for flooding across eastern parts of DRC.

October 09 - 15, 2020

Source: NOAA/CPC

Source: NOAA/CPC

Figure 1: RFE 7-Day Total Rainfall (mm)Valid: September 30 - October 06, 2020

Figure 2: ARC 90-Day Percent of Normal Rainfall (%) Valid: August 01 - October 06, 2020

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

Weather Hazards Summary

Central Asia Weather Hazards

Central America and the Caribbean Weather Hazards

Source: FEWS NET/NOAA

FloodingAbnormal DrynessDroughtSevere DroughtTropical CyclonePotential Locust OutbreakHeavy SnowAbnormal ColdAbnormal Heat

October 09 - 15, 2020

Temperatures Last week temperatures averaged between 1-5C below normal across Central Asia. Widespread subfreezing temperatures were observed throughout northern and eastern Kazakhstan and the higher elevations of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Minimum temperatures are likely to average near normal next week. Similar to the previous week, subfreezing temperatures are forecast for northern and eastern Kazakhstan and areas at higher elevations.

Precipitation

Following two weeks of widespread precipitation, dry weather prevailed across much of Central Asia. 30- day precipitation has averaged near normal across much of the region. Next week, rainfall and snow at the highest elevations are forecast across northeast Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

Source: FEWS NET/NOAA

FloodingAbnormal DrynessDroughtSevere DroughtTropical CyclonePotential Locust OutbreakHeavy SnowAbnormal ColdAbnormal Heat

1. Below-average rainfall over the past several months has strengthened abnormal dryness and drought over a large area in the east of Hispaniola.

2. Below-average rainfall persists across Belize while heavy rainfall triggers flooding across parts of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

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Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

Weather Hazards Summary

Central America and the Caribbean Overview

Heavy rainfall is forecast for much of Central America Last week, Guatemala, southern Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua received very heavy rainfall, triggering floods in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Parts of west-central Guatemala, eastern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama also recorded heavy rainfall. Meanwhile, areas of Belize, central and eastern Guatemala, and parts of Honduras recorded light rainfall. Significant 30-day rainfall deficits are apparent throughout Belize and the Gulf of Belize. Southeastern Nicaragua also exhibits some rainfall deficits but continues to receive favorable rainfall. Next week, heavy rainfall is forecast for southern Guatemala, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and El Salvador. Flooding is likely over already saturated areas. Meanwhile, more seasonal rainfall is forecast for Belize and parts of northern Honduras.

Hispaniola records moderate rainfall Last week, parts of northern and southern Haiti and neighboring areas of the Dominican Republic received favorable rainfall. Elsewhere in northwestern Haiti and much of the Dominican Republic, light rainfall was recorded. This rainfall pattern is typical for early October; however, the region has been unusually dry over the last 30-days. Abnormal dryness persists across much of Hispaniola. Additionally, rainfall performance since the summer has been uneven, with the majority of rainfall attributed to Tropi-cal Storms. Next week, weather conditions are expected to be normal, with no indication of Tropical Cyclone activity.

ABOUT WEATHER HAZARDSHazard maps are based on current weather/climate information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to 1 week) and their potential impact on crop and pasture conditions. Shaded polygons are added in areas where anomalous conditions have been observed. The boundaries of these polygons are only approximate at this continental scale. This product does not reflect long range seasonal climate forecasts or indicate current or projected food security conditions.

October 09 - 15, 2020

Source: NOAA/CPCSource: NOAA/CPC

Figure 4: CMORPH Rainfall Climatology (mm) Period: October 14, 2020

Figure 5: GEFS Mean Total Rainfall (mm)Period: October 14, 2020