Global Warming - 2Global Warming - 2

The difficult issuesThe difficult issues

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If you were President of the United If you were President of the United States, with responsibility for doing States, with responsibility for doing something about global warming, what something about global warming, what would you do.would you do.

Key PointsKey Points Science provides some guidance but little Science provides some guidance but little

detaildetail People react to uncertain future in different People react to uncertain future in different

waysways Action to control greenhouse gas emissions Action to control greenhouse gas emissions

controversial because far reaching and controversial because far reaching and expensiveexpensive

Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiationnegotiation– mild emissions reductions for developed countries mild emissions reductions for developed countries

applicable ~2010 applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of worldemissions small but growing for rest of world– rest of world watching before negotiatingrest of world watching before negotiating

Notes on Science AssessmentNotes on Science Assessment

Current consensus on attribution of global Current consensus on attribution of global warming to human activitieswarming to human activities– Balance of Probabilities (Balance of Probabilities (LikelyLikely))

Regional predictions much less secure that Regional predictions much less secure that global averageglobal average

Precipitation predictions much less secure Precipitation predictions much less secure that temperaturethat temperature

Impacts on ecosystem, agriculture,etc implied Impacts on ecosystem, agriculture,etc implied only in general termsonly in general terms

Comparative Policy Factors -1Comparative Policy Factors -1 Carbon Dioxide Carbon Dioxide

– greatest man-made effectgreatest man-made effect– reversible response time > 50 yrsreversible response time > 50 yrs

MethaneMethane– per Carbon atom 30 times COper Carbon atom 30 times CO2 2

– much less in atmospheremuch less in atmosphere– reversible response time 12 yearsreversible response time 12 years

Nitrous OxideNitrous Oxide– apparently uncontrollable sources apparently uncontrollable sources – reversible response time >100 yrsreversible response time >100 yrs

Comparative Policy Factors - 2Comparative Policy Factors - 2

CFCsCFCs– emissions already controlledemissions already controlled– Net radiative forcing smallNet radiative forcing small– reversible response time 50 yrsreversible response time 50 yrs

Sulfur emissionsSulfur emissions– controlled in some countriescontrolled in some countries– negative greenhouse effect, regionalnegative greenhouse effect, regional– magnitude poorly knownmagnitude poorly known– response immediateresponse immediate

Key PointsKey Points Science provides some guidance but little Science provides some guidance but little

detaildetail People react to uncertain future in different People react to uncertain future in different

waysways Action to control greenhouse gas emissions Action to control greenhouse gas emissions

controversial because far reaching and controversial because far reaching and expensiveexpensive

Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiationnegotiation– mild emissions reductions for developed countries mild emissions reductions for developed countries

applicable ~2010 applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of worldemissions small but growing for rest of world– rest of world watching before negotiatingrest of world watching before negotiating

Perspectives on PolicyPerspectives on Policy

Bretherton, F.P : 1994, Ambio, 23, 96-97

Key PointsKey Points Science provides some guidance but little Science provides some guidance but little

detaildetail People react to uncertain future in different People react to uncertain future in different

waysways Action to control greenhouse gas emissions Action to control greenhouse gas emissions

controversial because far reaching and controversial because far reaching and expensiveexpensive

Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiationnegotiation– mild emissions reductions for developed countries mild emissions reductions for developed countries

applicable ~2010 applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of worldemissions small but growing for rest of world– rest of world watching before negotiatingrest of world watching before negotiating

Possible ActionsPossible Actions

Reduce COReduce CO22, Methane emissions, Methane emissions– Raise price carbon fuels Raise price carbon fuels – Encourage efficiency, alternatives Encourage efficiency, alternatives – Focus on “no regrets” actionsFocus on “no regrets” actions

Wait and see what happensWait and see what happens– Risk worse consequences Risk worse consequences – Rest of the world will not act without U.S. Rest of the world will not act without U.S.

participation participation

Key PointsKey Points Science provides some guidance but little Science provides some guidance but little

detaildetail People react to uncertain future in different People react to uncertain future in different

waysways Action to control greenhouse gas emissions Action to control greenhouse gas emissions

controversial because far reaching and controversial because far reaching and expensiveexpensive

Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiationnegotiation– mild emissions reductions for developed countries mild emissions reductions for developed countries

applicable ~2010 applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of worldemissions small but growing for rest of world– rest of world watching before negotiatingrest of world watching before negotiating

Framework Convention on Framework Convention on Climate ChangeClimate Change

http://www.unfccc.dehttp://www.unfccc.de

An agreement in principle among An agreement in principle among governments and a process for further governments and a process for further negotiationnegotiation

Signed: Rio de Janeiro 1992Signed: Rio de Janeiro 1992 “ “Conference of the Parties-3”: Kyoto, 1997Conference of the Parties-3”: Kyoto, 1997 COP-4: Buenos Aires, Nov 1998COP-4: Buenos Aires, Nov 1998 COP-6: The Hague, Nov 2000, Jun 2001COP-6: The Hague, Nov 2000, Jun 2001 United Nations SecretariatUnited Nations Secretariat

Kyoto Protocol -1997Kyoto Protocol -1997

Commitments by developed countries onlyCommitments by developed countries only Greenhouse gas emissions onlyGreenhouse gas emissions only Offsets deferred for further study Offsets deferred for further study U.S. commitment for 2008-2012 U.S. commitment for 2008-2012

– less than 93% of 1990less than 93% of 1990 Full textFull text

Kyoto Protocol-1 Kyoto Protocol-1 The Parties to this Protocol,

Being Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, hereinafter referred to as "the Convention",

In pursuit of the ultimate objective of the Convention as stated in its Article 2,

Recalling the provisions of the Convention,

Being guided by Article 3 of the Convention,

Pursuant to the Berlin Mandate adopted by decision 1/CP.1 of the

Conference of the Parties to the Convention at its first session,

Have agreed as follows: Full Text

Big Issues in Big Issues in International NegotiationsInternational Negotiations

Who pays?Who pays?– Initially developed countries onlyInitially developed countries only

How to define compliance?How to define compliance?– Fossil fuel can be monitoredFossil fuel can be monitored– Offsets from reforestation hard to measure Offsets from reforestation hard to measure

Developing countries other prioritiesDeveloping countries other priorities– Small users now BUTSmall users now BUT– Rest of world emissions expected to passRest of world emissions expected to pass developed developed

countries around 2025countries around 2025 Minimizing impact on economic activityMinimizing impact on economic activity

– Joint implementationJoint implementation

U.N. Framework Convention U.N. Framework Convention for Climate Changefor Climate Change

What’s NewWhat’s New

http://www.unfccc.de/wnew

U.S. National ActivityU.S. National Activity

U.S. Global Change Research Program U.S. Global Change Research Program (1990 - )(1990 - )

Kyoto Protocol requires ratification by Kyoto Protocol requires ratification by senatesenate

Climate Change Action Climate Change Action PlanPlan– ““http://www.http://www.epaepa..govgov//globalwarmingglobalwarming

/actions/national//actions/national/ccapccap//ccapccap.html.html””– Kyoto targets not being met so farKyoto targets not being met so far

Is the U.S. Meeting its Is the U.S. Meeting its Kyoto Commitments?Kyoto Commitments?

Environmental Protection AgencyEnvironmental Protection Agency

2008-2013Kyoto Protocol Annex 1

1,516

U.S. Emissions of U.S. Emissions of Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases

Environmental Protection AgencyEnvironmental Protection Agency

Key PointsKey Points Science provides some guidance but little Science provides some guidance but little

detaildetail People react to uncertain future in different People react to uncertain future in different

waysways Action to control greenhouse gas emissions Action to control greenhouse gas emissions

controversial because far reaching and controversial because far reaching and expensiveexpensive

Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of Kyoto one step in an ongoing process of negotiationnegotiation– mild emissions reductions for developed countries mild emissions reductions for developed countries

applicable ~2010 applicable ~2010 – emissions small but growing for rest of worldemissions small but growing for rest of world– rest of world watching before negotiatingrest of world watching before negotiating

The Third The Third Planet from Planet from

the Sunthe Sun

Sources of InformationSources of Information

Brown, … Chapter 8Brown, … Chapter 8 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate U.N. Framework Convention on Climate

Change - Change - http:\\www.http:\\www.unfcccunfccc.de.de U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyU.S. Environmental Protection Agency