Thursday, 3 December 2015Asian Development Bank InstituteTokyo, Japan

Asian Development Bank Institute18th Annual Conference 2015

Global Uncertainty,Macroeconomic Shocks, and Growth in Asia

Yosuke Tsuyuguchi has been senior advisory officer of the Shinkin Central Bank since April 2011. Prior to assuming this role, he worked for the Bank of Japan for 31 years, including as its first chief representative in Beijing.

Peter Tillmann is professor of monetary economics at the University of Giessen, Germany. He has been a senior economist at the Swiss National Bank and assistant professor at the University of Bonn. His research interests include monetary policy, international macroeconomics, and international finance. He has been a visiting fellow at the IMF and currently collaborates with the Bank of Korea and the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Economics. He obtained his PhD from the University of Cologne.

Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul has worked at the Bank of International Settle-ments since 2014. Before that he worked at the Bank of Thailand, where he led a team responsible for providing policy recommendations to the Monetary Policy Committee. His previous central banking experiences include forecasting and modelling, as well as reserve management. He was at the IMF from 2011‒2012 in the Asia and Pacific Department, working on various research themes and missions. He holds a DPhil and MPhil in economics from the University of Oxford.

Guanghua Wan is Director of Research at the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI). Previously, he was Principal Economist and Head of the Poverty/Inequality Group at the Asian Development Bank. He has served as a senior economist in the United Nations and taught in a number of universities in Australia and the People's Republic of China. Trained in development economics and economet-rics, he is a multi-award-wining scholar on the Chinese economy and an expert on Asia, with an outstanding publication record of more than 100 professional articles and a dozen books including two by Oxford University Press.According to RePEc, he is ranked in the top 10% of economists in the world and top 5% in Asia.

Shang-Jin Wei is Chief Economist of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). He is the chief spokesperson for ADB on economic and development trends, and leads the Economics and Research Department, which publishes ADB’s flagship knowledge products. He has a long and distinguished career in academia and international finance and trade. Before joining ADB, he was the N.T. Wang Chair and Director of the Chazen Institute of International Business at Columbia University and Director of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s working group on the Chinese economy. He earned a PhD in economics and a master’s degree in finance from the University of California, Berkeley.

Yongding Yu is an academician at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), a member of the National Committee of People's Political Consultative Conference (NPPCC), a member of the Committee of Foreign Affairs of the NPPCC, and a member of the Advisory Committee of National Planning of the National Development and Reform Committee of the PRC. He was Director-General of the Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP) with CASS (1998‒2009), President of the China Society of World Economy (2003‒2009), and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China (2004‒2006).

Naoyuki Yoshino is Dean of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Chief Advisor at the Japan Financial Services Agency’s Financial Research Center, Chairperson of the Meeting of Japanese Government Bond Investors, and professor emeritus of Keio University, Japan. He obtained his PhD from Johns Hopkins University in 1979. He has served as Chair of the Financial Planning Standards Board. He has also been Chair of the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s Council on Foreign Exchange as well as Fiscal System Council. He has been a Board Member of the Deposit Insurance Corporation of Japan, and President of Japan’s Financial System Council. He holds honorary doctorates from the

University of Gothenburg (Sweden) and Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg (Germany).

http://www.adb.org/annual-meeting/2016

Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Bld. 8F,3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku,Tokyo 100-6008 Japaninfo@adbi.org　www.adbi.org

PROGRAM Speaker ProfilesPROGRAM Speaker’ ProfilesASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK INSTITUTE 18TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE 2015Global Uncertainty, Macroeconomic Shocks, and Growth in Asia

3 December 2015 Tokyo, Japan08：30

08：50

09：00

09：20

09：40

10：0010：00

11：15

11：30

11：4511：45

12：50

13：00

14：15

14：15

14：35

14：45

15：05

15：15

15：45

16：15

16：15

16：40

16：50

17：10

17：20

17：50

18：30

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒‒

‒

‒

‒‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

‒

08：50

09：00

09：20

09：40

10：00

11：3011：15

11：30

11：45

13：0012：50

13：00

14：15

15：45

14：35

14：45

15：05

15：15

15：45

16：15

17：50

16：40

16：50

17：10

17：20

17：50

18：00

20：30

Registration

Opening Remarks‥‥‥Naoyuki Yoshino, Dean, ADBI

Keynote Speech 1‥‥‥Hiroshi Nakaso, Deputy Governor, Bank of Japan

Keynote Speech 2‥‥‥Takehiko Nakao, President, ADB

Open Floor Discussion

Session I： Outlook for Growth in Asia and the Pacific Keynote Presentation: Outlook for Growth in Asia and the PacificShang-Jin Wei, Chief Economist, ADBModerator: Naoyuki Yoshino, Dean, ADBI

Open Floor Discussion

Coffee Break

Session II： Global Uncertainties and Macroeconomic Shocks Keynote Presentation: CrashesAtish R. Ghosh, Assistant Director, and Chief, Systemic Issues Division, Research Department,International Monetary FundModerator: Guanghua Wan, Research Director, ADBI

Open Floor Discussion

Lunch

Session III： Slowdown of the PRCModerator: Naoyuki Yoshino, Dean, ADBI

Paper Presentation: Factors Affecting the Outlook for Medium- to Long-term Growth in the PRCPeter Morgan, Senior Consultant for Research and Guanghua Wan, Research Director, ADBI

Discussant: Katsuji Nakagane, Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo

Paper Presentation: Korea’s Economic Growth and Catch-up: Implications for the PRC

Jong-Wha Lee, Professor of Economics, Korea University

Discussant: Yosuke Tsuyuguchi, Senior Advisory Officer, Shinkin Central Bank Open Floor

Discussion

Coffee Break

Session IV： Macroeconomic ShocksModerator: Peter Morgan, Senior Consultant for Research, ADBI

Presentation: Monetary Policy and Financial Spillovers: Losing Traction?Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, Bank of International Settlements

Discussant: Shin-ichi Fukuda, Professor of Economics, University of Tokyo

Paper Presentation: Tapering Talk on Twitter and the Transmission to Emerging EconomiesPeter Tillmann, Professor of Economics, Justus Liebig University, Giessen

Discussant: Mahvash S. Qureshi, Senior Economist, Research Department, International Monetary Fund

Open Floor Discussion

Closing Remarks‥‥‥Naoyuki Yoshino, Dean, ADBI

Reception and Dinner (by invitation only)

•Yongding Yu, former President, China Society of World Economics •Hans Genberg, Executive Director of the South East Asian Central Banks　Research and Training Centre, Malaysia

Panelists:

•Takehiko Nakao, President, ADB•Jong-Wha Lee, Professor of Economics, Korea University •Chatib Basri, Senior Fellow, Harvard University

Panelists: Muhamad Chatib Basri is Ash Centre Senior Fellow at the John F. Kennedy School of Govern-ment, Harvard University. He is a former Minister of Finance of Indonesia, and former Chairman of Indonesia’s Investment Coordinating Board. He was a member of the Asia and Pacific Regional Advisory Group of the International Monetary Fund, and a member of the High Level Trade Experts Group co-chaired by Bhagwati and

Sutherland. He has acted as a consultant for the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the OECD.

Hans Genberg assumed the post of Executive Director of the SEACEN Centre in Kuala Lumpur in July 2015 having served as an adviser to the Centre since March 2014. Prior to joining SEACEN Genberg was Assistant Director at the Independent Evaluation Office of the Interna-tional Monetary Fund after having been Execu-tive Director, Research, at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Before joining the HKMA

he was Professor of international economics at the Graduate Institute of International Studies in Geneva, Switzerland. A Swed-ish national, Genberg holds a PhD in Economics from the Univer-sity of Chicago.

Jong-Wha Lee is a professor of economics and director of the Asiatic Research Institute at Korea University. He served as a senior adviser for international economic affairs to a former president of the Republic of Korea. He was also previously Chief Economist and Head of the Office of Regional Economic Integration at the Asian Development Bank and an economist at the International Monetary Fund. He has

published numerous books and journal articles, especially on topics relating to human capital, growth, financial crises, and economic integration. He has contributed to Project Syndicate since 2012.

Katsuji Nakagane graduated from the Universi-ty of Tokyo in 1964. He was research fellow at the Institute of Developing Economies from 1964 to 1978, an associate professor at Hitotsubashi University from 1978 to 1982, and served as a professor at Hitotsubashi University from 1982 to 1990, the University of Tokyo from 1990 to 2003 and Aoyama Gakuin University from 2003 to 2010. He has been a research fellow at the

Oriental Library since 2004. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Tokyo.

Hiroshi Nakaso has served as Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan since March 2013. In his 37 years at the bank, his main responsibilities have been the crisis management of financial systems and markets, especially on a global basis. He has participated in numerous international meetings, and during his terms as Director-General of the Financial Markets Department and Assistant Governor, he chaired the Bank for International Settlements' Markets Commit-

tee and Working Group on Financial Reference Rates, and the G20 Study Group on Commodities.

Shin-ichi Fukuda is affiliated with the Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, where he has been associate professor (1996‒2001) and professor of economics (2001‒present). His numerous profession-al appointments have included, visiting scholar, Australian National University (1998), visiting profes-sor of economics, Yale University (2002‒2003), and visiting fellow at the Asian Development Bank Institute (2007‒2012). His recent works have dealt

with issues related to exchange rate policy, monetary policy, foreign exchange reserve accumulation, and banking problems under crises. He holds a PhD in economics from Yale University.

Atish Rex Ghosh is Assistant Director, and Chief, Systemic Issues Division, Research Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF). His previous assignments at the IMF have included work on the Ukrainian (1994‒1997) and Turkish (1998‒1999) stabilization programs. Currently he works on issues related to the stability of the international monetary system, including exchange rate regimes, external balance dynamics, capital flows, and monetary,

exchange rate, and fiscal policy. He was formerly assistant professor of economics and international affairs, Princeton University. He holds degrees from Harvard University and Oxford University. He has published numerous articles and several books on open economy macroeconomics and international finance.

Peter Morgan joined the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) in December 2008. Previously he served in Hong Kong, China as Chief Asia Economist for HSBC, responsible for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting for Asia. Before that, he was Chief Japan Economist for HSBC, and earlier held similar positions at Merrill Lynch, Barclays de Zoete Wedd, and Jardine Fleming. Prior to entering the financial industry, he worked as a consultant for Meta Systems

in Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States, specializing in energy and environmental areas, including energy policy issues in Asian countries, and at International Business Information KK in Tokyo, specializing in financial sector consulting.

Takehiko Nakao was appointed President of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Chairperson of ADB’s Board of Directors in April 2013. Before joining ADB, he served as Japan’s Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs and, was Director-General of the International Bureau of the Ministry of Finance. He has also held high level positions with the Embassy of Japan in Washington, DC, and the International

Monetary Fund, and has published extensively on financial and economic issues. He holds a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Tokyo and a master of business administration from the University of California, Berkeley.

Mahvash Saeed Qureshi is a senior economist in the Research Department of the IMF. Her current research focuses on issues related to the stability of the international monetary system, including exchange rate regimes, external balance dynamics, capital flows and capital controls, as well as interna-tional trade and development. She has published extensively on international macroeconomic policy issues in scholarly journals including the Economic

Journal, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, and the IMF Economic Review. She received her PhD and MPhil in economics from the University of Cambridge, Trinity College.