global truck powertrain trends iaa 2012 · global truck powertrain trends europe, 15.7% europe, ......
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Global Truck Powertrain Trends
Chris Fisher
Senior Commercial Vehicle Analyst
September 2012
Global Engine Share Trucks GVWR > 6 Ton
Europe
19%
Greater China
36%Japan/Korea
8%
North America
14%
South America
7%
South Asia
16%
Regional Engine Usage CY 2011 - 3,091k Engines
Global Truck Powertrain Trends
Europe, 15.7%
Europe, 9.5%
Europe, 74.8%
Greater China, 45.5%
Greater China, 23.4%
Greater China, 31.1%
Japan/Korea, 56.4%
Japan/Korea, 27.4%
Japan/Korea, 16.2%
North America, 3.1%
North America, 51.0%
North America, 45.8%
South America, 62.9%
South America, 15.2%
South America, 21.9%
South Asia, 96.2%
South Asia, 3.5%
South Asia, 0.2%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
4 - 6 Liter
6 - 9 Liter
> 9 Liter
South Asia South America North America Japan/Korea Greater China Europe
Global Engine Share Trucks GVWR > 6 Ton
CNHTC
4%
Cummins
7% Daimler
9%
Dongfeng
Cummins
4%FAW
5%
Isuzu
4%
Navistar
5%
Other
23%
Tata Cummins
5%
Toyota(Hino)
5%
Volkswagen
5%
Volvo
7%
Weichai Power
10%
Yuchai
7%
Regional Engine Usage CY 2011 - 3,091k Engines
Engine Displacement Mix Trucks GVWR > 6 Ton
Engine Parent > 9 Liter 6 - 9 Liter 4 - 6 Liter
CNHTC 96.7% 3.3% 0.0%
Cummins 26.3% 54.0% 19.6%
Daimler 56.4% 12.4% 31.3%
Dongfeng Cummins 15.3% 27.0% 57.7%
FAW 1.0% 71.7% 27.3%
Isuzu 11.8% 22.3% 65.9%
Navistar 35.0% 33.8% 31.3%
Tata Cummins 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Toyota 7.2% 31.5% 61.3%
Volkswagen 82.4% 12.2% 5.4%
Volvo 88.8% 4.7% 6.5%
Weichai Power 98.5% 1.3% 0.2%
Yuchai 0.7% 36.6% 62.8%
North America
• Cummins
• Daimler
• Ford
• Navistar
• PACCAR
• Volvo
• Trucks GVWR > 6 ton
Cummins
33%
Daimler (DDC)
15%Ford
10%
Other
2%
Navistar
24%
PACCAR
6%
Volvo
10%
Engine Usage CY 2011 – 422k Engines
North America
• Cummins
– The only independent supplier.
– Offers engines to all N/A OEM’s (soon to include Navistar).
– Largest class 8 engine supplier.
– Complete diesel engine displacement range.
– Global footprint
• Daimler
– Detroit Diesel renamed to Detroit.
– Self supply engines primarily to their Freightliner and Western Star truck brands.
– DD13, DD15 & DD16 global engine platforms.
North America
• Ford
– Self Supply on their F
series medium trucks.
– Introduced the Scorpion
diesel engine platform
which replaced the
Navistar Powerstroke
platform.
– Does not offer a heavy
displacement engine.
• Navistar
– Offers a complete range
of MaxxForce branded
engines primarily for the
International branded
trucks.
– Will transition from EGR
to SCR after treatment
during the next 18
months.
North America
• PACCAR
– Recently introduced the
13 liter MX engine
platform.
– New engine plant in
Mississippi.
– Possibly introduce a 9
liter engine at some
point.
– Continue to use
Cummins engines.
• Volvo
– Self supplies engines for
their Mack and Volvo
branded heavy trucks.
– Engine platforms include
an 11, 13 and 16 liter
displacements.
– Outsources medium
engines from Cummins
North America• Industry Trends:
– Adoption of natural gas engines.• Natural gas refueling infrastructure.
• High cost of natural gas engines.
• Cost difference between diesel and natural gas.
– Hybrid trucks.• High upfront cost.
• Start and stop applications such as buses, local distribution and refuse haulers.
• Cost of diesel an important factor for adoptions.
– Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations for MY2014 –MY2018. Targets improved fuel economy.
– Automated manual transmissions (AMT) will play a key role moving forward.
– Shift from 15 liter to 13 liter engines throughout the industry.
Europe
• Daimler
• Fiat Powertrain Technologies
(FPT)
• Kamaz
• PACCAR
• Volkswagen
• Volvo
• Trucks GVWR > 6 ton
Daimler
20%
FPT
10%
Kamaz
8%
Other
13%PACCAR
9%
Volkswagen
23%
Volvo
17%
Engine Usage CY 2011
Europe
• Daimler
– Introduced their global heavy duty engine platform (HDEP).
– HDEP consists of an 11 L, 13L, 15 L and 16 L engine.
– Recently introduced the medium engine platform (MDEP) which include the 7.7 liter and 5.1 liter engines.
• Fiat Powertrain Technologies (FPT)
– Broad range from 3 – 13 liter engines.
– Include the 4 – 6 Liter tector and 8 – 13 Liter cursor platforms.
– The 3 Liter F1C replaced the Mitsubishi 4M on Mitsubishi Fuso engines in Japan and South Asia.
Europe
• Kamaz
– Manufactures a 10 and
11 liter engine.
– Joint Venture with
Cummins (KAMA) to
produce 6 liter ISB
engines.
– Joint Venture with
Daimler which may lead
to engine technology.
• PACCAR
– Currently manufacture
an 13 liter (MX) and a 9
liter (PR) engine.
– Developing an 11 Liter
engine ahead of Euro VI.
– Use PACCAR branded
Cummins engines for
medium duty
applications.
Europe
• Volkswagen
– MAN and Scania
combined produce
engines between 5 – 16
Liters.
– Currently, brands are
separate but Volkswagen
will merge the
powertrain lineup.
• Volvo
– Produce the 9 and 11
liter engine in France
and the 13 and 16 liter in
Sweden.
– Replaced the Deutz 5
and 7 liter engine with a
five liter engine
produced in India and a
7 liter engine produced
in Japan.
Europe• Industry Trends:
– Preparing for Euro VI emission regulations.
• Implementation January 1st, 2014.
• EGR, SCR, DPF combination.
• Additional cost with little to no improvement to fuel economy.
– Hybrid trucks.
• High upfront cost.
• Start and stop applications such as buses, local distribution and
refuse haulers.
• Cost of diesel an important factor for adoptions.
– Biofuel is a focus in the industry led by Volvo.
Greater China
• CNHTC
• Dongfeng Cummins
• FAW
• Weichai Power
• Yuchai
• Trucks GVWR > 6 ton
Dongfeng/Cummins
16%
FAW
15%
Hangzhou-CNHTC
10%
Other
13%
Weichai Power
28%
Yuchai
18%
Engine Usage CY 2011 - 1,121k Engines
Greater China
• CNHTC
– Self manufactures 6.5
and 10 liter engines for
the Sinotruk brand.
– Started producing MAN
D2066 11 liter and
D2676 MAN 13 liter
engines.
• Dongfeng Cummins
– Joint venture with
Cummins.
– Produce the B, C and L
and the new 13 liter Z
series Cummins engines.
– Cummins technology will
enable the industry to
meet stricter emission
standards.
Greater China
• FAW
– FAW produces a
complete range of small
and medium engines up
to 9 Liters.
– Joint venture with Deutz
for their medium
engines.
• Weichai Power
– Significant market share
(40%) in the heavy truck
segment.
– Offers a 10 and 12 liter
engine.
– Recently introduced a
lineup of medium and
heavy natural gas
engines.
Greater China
• Yuchai
– Yuchai offers a broad
range of engines from 3
– 10 liters.
– Yuchai owns an 18%
share of the M&H truck
market and a 17% share
in the light truck market
(diesel fuel).
Greater China• Industry Trends:
– Preparing for Euro IV emission regulations.
• Implementation July 1st, 2013.
• Delayed due to fuel quality concerns.
• Economy could push the date out. No date set for Euro V.
– Market transitioning to higher displacement engines.
• Heavy trucks greatly underpowered.
• 10 liter to 11 liter and 12 liter to 13 liter.
• Foreign OEM’s such as Daimler, MAN and Cummins introducing
13 liter engines.
– Natural gas engines expected to play a greater role
moving forward.
South America
• Cummins
• Daimler
• Fiat Powertrain
Technologies (FPT)
• Navistar
• Volkswagen
• Volvo
• Trucks GVWR > 6 ton
Cummins
32%
Daimler
21%
FPT
9%Navistar
17%
Others
5%
Volkswagen
8%
Volvo
8%
Engine Usage CY 2011 - 229k Engines
South America
• Cummins
– Produces the B and C
series for Ford and
Volkswagen.
– Recently introduced the
ISL for Volkswagen heavy
trucks.
– During the next few
years, Cummins will
import the ISF light
engine from China.
• Daimler
– Offers a 5L, 7L, and 12
liter engine for
Mercedes branded
trucks.
– Vertically integrated.
Only Daimler engine
produced in Brazil are
used on Mercedes
branded trucks.
South America
• Fiat Powertrain
Technologies (FPT)
– FPT produces both
medium and heavy
engines in South
America.
– The 6 liter Tector and 8
liter Cursor are produced
in Brazil.
– The 13 liter Cursor is
produced in Argentina.
• Navistar
– Navistar acquired MWM
Motors in 2005 and
supply engines to SA
OEM’s such as Agrale,
Volkswagen and Volvo.
– Navistar has started to
export the MaxxForce 7
engine to China to
support their JV with
JAC.
South America
• Volkswagen
– With the acquisition of Scania, Volkswagen now produces heavy engines in Brazil.
– With platform upgrades, Volkswagen branded trucks will likely be equipped with the “Scania” heavy engines.
• Volvo
– Volvo produces the 11 and 13 liter heavy engines for the Volvo branded trucks in Brazil.
– MWM International provides 7 liter engines for lighter applications.
– The 7 liter engines will likely be superseded by Volvo engines produced now produced in Japan.
South America• Industry Trends:
– Euro 5 emission legislation.
• Transition from Euro III to Euro V.
• Brazil implemented in January 2012. High cost significantly
reduced demand.
• Argentina scheduled implementation for January 2013?
– Global engine platforms will enable engine
manufacturers flexibility on production location.
– May see increased engine exports to Asia and the ASEAN
regions.
South Asia
• Ashok Leyland
• Daimler
• Isuzu
• Mitsubishi
• Tata/Cummins
• Tata
• Toyota (Hino)
• Volvo
• Trucks GVWR > 6 ton
Ashok Leyland
14%Daimler
3% Isuzu
3%
Mitsubishi
7%
Other
5%Tata Cummins
34%
Tata Motors
12%
Toyota (Hino)
11%
Volvo
11%
Engine Usage CY 2011 - 483k Engines
South Asia
• Ashok Leyland
– Introduced the 5 and 8
liter “Neptune” engine
series in 2012.
– Ultimately replace the W
series engine platform.
– Installed on the U-Truck
platform.
– Euro IV compliant.
• Tata Cummins
– Produce the Cummins
5.9 liter B series and 6.7
liter ISB engines for
medium and heavy
trucks.
– Engines produced for
Tata, Eicher and Asia
Motor Works.
South Asia
• Tata
– Produce a 4 and 6 liter
engine for the truck
segment.
– Relying more on the Tata
Cummins Joint Venture
for commercial vehicle
engines.
– Possibly exit the M&H
on-highway engine
segment.
• Volvo
– Eicher Motors builds a 5
liter engine which is
used in the Eicher
branded trucks.
– Started producing the 5
liter GH5 to support
Volvo’s global engine
program.
– The GH5 is only
produced in India.
South Asia• Industry Trends:
– Much like China, expect to see this region trend to higher
displacement engines. Most heavy truck applications are
still using underpowered 6 liter engines.
– Adoption of natural gas engines will continue to increase
in an effort to improve air quality in congested areas.
– As global engine platforms continue to evolve, more
advanced engines will be manufactured in India and
possibly Indonesia.
– Expect to see stricter emission regulations during the
coming years.
Japan and Korea
• Daimler
• Hyundai
• Isuzu
• Toyota (Hino)
• Volvo
• Trucks GVWR > 6 ton
Daimler
15%
Hyundai
5%
Isuzu
36%Other
6%
Toyota (Hino)
31%
Volvo
7%
Engine Usage CY 2011 - 262k Engines
Japan and Korea
• Daimler
– The Mitsubishi Fuso
plant produces a
complete range of
engines from 5 to 13
liters.
– Also produced in Japan is
the 13 liter R series
HDEP. This engine is also
produced in Europe and
the United States
• Hyundai
– Hyundai offers a full
range of medium and
heavy engines ranging
from 3 to 13 liters.
– Hyundai recently spent
$575 million to upgrade
their engine platforms
primarily to meet the
emission regulations for
their diverse market.
Japan and Korea
• Isuzu
– Isuzu’s engine platforms range from 3 to 16 liters.
– One of the largest diesel engine producers in the world.
– Other than Isuzu branded trucks, OEM’s such as Qingling and SML Isuzu produce engines from Isuzu platforms.
• Toyota
– Hino Motors produces the medium and heavy engines for Toyota’s Hino brand.
– Engine displacements range up to 13 liters.
– Hino no longer produces engines with less than Euro IV emission ratings in Japan.
Japan and Korea
• Volvo
– Volvo Japan produces engines from 3 to 13 liters for their UD branded trucks.
– Started producing the 7 liter GH7 to support Volvo’s global engine program.
– The GH7 is only produced in Japan but is exported globally.
Japan and Korea• Industry Trends:
– Engine manufacturer platforms will become more
“global” and share common components between
regions.
– Hybrid powertrains will continue to be promoted.
– Over the longer term, the OEM’s will likely shift engine
production closer to their markets or in low cost
countries.
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